Tag: SC

This is a quick attempt at South Carolina with 7 seats and 2 Minority Majority districts.

SSPers speculated that there should be a second VRA seat in South Carolina, as there is a substantial black population. Personally I do not think South Carolina should have gotten another seat, the data on Daves App shows South Carolina at 4.5 Million or so, and 2010 Census showed it at 4.6 M or 663,710 per district. I however feel that as long as the US House stays with 435 seats and the size of each constituency rises with each census apportionment, the utility of VRA seats are going to collapse onto themselves.

We see instances like Mel Watt (NC), Corrine Brown (FL), and Sanford Bishop (GA) that getting 50% of their districts Black is a hard order when trying to make a district that has at best moderate gerrymandering.

South Carolina has a large African American population 30% in the 2000 Census; however the population is way too spread out to make a coherent congressional district within a state. As seen here

And my map seen here

It just is too agressive to get a 50% district and a 49% district. Also notice that the 4th district (yellow) is just barely contiguous. This gerrymander will only see Clyburn, Scott and Dowdy  keep their seats I believe. It does really put Joe Wilson into a very strange district.

Whatever happened in the Senate primary,the fact is that South Carolina, has an unverifiable and therefore unacceptable voting system.

http://blog.verifiedvoting.org…

A few key quotes from the statement:

Whether specific reports of irregularities in this election are confirmed, the most important fact about South Carolina’s voting system is that most ballots cannot be effectively audited or recounted. Serious concerns about the integrity of the primary (and of other elections conducted using the same technology) are inevitable, and legitimate.

SNIP

We support calls for the forensic investigation of available records in the South Carolina primary, and urge that such records be preserved in the same way that paper ballots are retained for examination for a sufficient period of time post-election.  However, like in Sarasota County, absent evidence of voter intent the ultimate findings may still not be sufficient to generate confidence in the outcome of this contest.

SNIP

Whatever the outcome, we strongly urge citizens and policymakers in the state and in the nation at large to use this moment to insist on their right to voting systems that demonstrate trustworthiness rather than demand trust. Congressman Rush Holt’s and Senator Bill Nelson’s Voter Confidence and Increased Accessibility Act would require that all Federal elections employ a system of paper ballots marked by the voter, with random hand-counted audits to check electronic tallies of the ballots. There has never been a better time for Congress to pass this critically needed legislation. The voters and the public deserve no less.

Previous diaries

Summary:

  SC has 6 reps: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats

  SD has 1 rep: A Democrat

  TN has 9 reps: 4 Republicans and 5 Democrats

Possibly vulnerable:

  SC-01 (R)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from AOL

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: SC-01

Location Almost all of coastal SC, bordering NC and the Atlantic, including Charleston  map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Henry Brown (R)

VoteView  317

First elected 2000

2008 margin 52-48 over Linda Ketner

2006 margin 60-38

2004 margin 88-12 (vs. a Green)

Obama margin 42-56

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents A primary and then possibly Robert Dobbs(others are considering)

Demographics   17th most veterans (17.2%), 78th most Blacks (20.9%)

Assessment At least possible; 2008 was close

District: SC-02

Location Southern SC, stretching north to the middle of the state, bordering GA and the Atlantic, including Columbia  map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Joe Wilson (R)

VoteView  404

First elected 2001

2008 margin 54-46 over Robert Miller

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 65-33

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Current opponents Robert Miller is running again.

Demographics  70th most veterans (15.1%), 60th most Blacks (26.2%)

Assessment Might be possible, Miller wasn’t that far back in 2008. But not likely.

District: SC-03

Location Northwestern SC, bordering GA  map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Gresham Barrett (R) retiring to run for governor

VoteView  430

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 35-64

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Current opponents A bunch of Republicans are running; the only confirmed Democrat is Jane Dyer

Demographics  49th most rural (49.7%), 80th most Blacks (20.5%), 36th most Republican

Assessment Pretty sure to be Republican

District: SC-04

Location  Northern SC, bordering NC  map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Bob Inglis (R)

VoteView 402.5

First elected 2004

2008 margin 60-37 over Paul Corden

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 70-29

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents There is a big Republican primary, but no confirmed Democrat.

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track.

Assessment Long shot

District: SC-05

Location  map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative John Spratt (D)

VoteView  198.5

First elected 1988

2008 margin 62-37 over Albert Spencer

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 46-53

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents None declared

Demographics   35h most rural (53.3%), 80th fewest Latinos (1.8%)

Assessment looks pretty safe

District: SC-06

Location  Southeastern quarter of SC, bordering the Atlantic, excluding Charleston map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative James Clyburn (D)

VoteView 67

First elected 1992

2008 margin 68-32 over Nancy Harrelson

2006 margin 64-34

2004 margin 67-31

Obama margin 64-35

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  40th most rural (52.0%), 17th lowest income (median = $29K) 66th fewest Whites (40.3%), 14th most Blacks (56.7%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment Safe

District: SD-01

Location The whole state map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Stephanine Herseth Sandlin (D)

VoteView  215

First elected 2004

2008 margin 68-32 over Chris Lien

2006 margin 69-29

2004 margin 53-46

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 60-38

Current opponents Thad Wasson is the only confirmed Republican, others are considering

Demographics  58th most rural (48.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%), 66th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 8.1% Native Americans).

Assessment Safe

District: TN-01

Location Eastern TN, bordering VA and NC  map

Cook PVI R + 21

Representative Phil Roe (R)

VoteView  394.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin 72-25 over Rob Russell

2006 margin 61-37

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 29-70

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  71st most rural (44.6%), 38th lowest income (median = $31K), 16th most White (95%), 83rd fewest Blacks (2.1%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%), 16th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-02

Location Eastern TN, including Knoxville.  Borders NC  map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative John Duncan (R)

VoteView  434

First elected 1988

2008 margin 69-27 over Doug Vandagriff

2006 margin 78-22

2004 margin 79-19

Obama margin 34-64

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  73rd most White (90.1%), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%), 40th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-03

Location Shaped sort of like a barbell, running from the GA border in the south, then narrowing and running NE to the VA and KY borders, where it widens again map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Zach Wamp (R) Retiring to run for governor

VoteView  353.5

First elected 1994

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Current opponents Although there are lots of people considering running, the only confirmed Democrat is Paula Flowers

Demographics   67th fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-04

Location  Shaped like a lopsided U, starting south of Nashville in the middle of the state, south to the AL border, east to the GA border, then north to the KY border map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Lincoln Davis (D)

VoteView  221

First elected 2002

2008 margin 59-38 over Monty Lankford

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 55-44

Obama margin 34-64

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents Monty Lankford

Demographics  4th most rural (67.9%), 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 48th most Whites (92.6%), 68th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-05

Location Nashville and suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Jim Cooper (D)

VoteView  197

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-31 over Gerald Donovan

2006 margin 69-28

2004 margin 69-31

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  68th most Blacks (23.4%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-06

Location Central part of northern TN bordering KY  map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Bart Gordon (D)

VoteView  209

First elected 1984

2008 margin 74-26 over an independent

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 64-34

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents Dave Evans and Gary Mann are in a Republican primary.

Demographics  63rd most rural (46.8%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-07

Location Another strange shaped district.  Most of it is in southwestern TN, bordering MS and AL, but it stretches north and east to the suburbs of Nashville, then north to the KY border  map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Marsha Blackburn (R)

VoteView  407.5

First elected 2002

2008 margin 69-31 over Randy Morris

2006 margin 66-32

2004 margin Unopposed

Obama margin  33-66

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Current opponents Gary Rabidoux

Demographics  95th most rural (39.0%), 28th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-08

Location Northwestern TN, bordering AR, MO and KY  map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative John Tanner (D)

VoteView  220

First elected 1988

2008 margin Unopposed

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 74-26

Obama margin 43-56

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Current opponents James Hart and Donn James in a Republican primary.

Demographics   36th most rural (53.0%), 64th lowest income (median = $33K), 38th most Blacks (22.3%), 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-09

Location Memphis and suburbs, bordering AR and MS  map

Cook PVI D + 23

Representative Steve Cohen (D)

VoteView  142

First elected 2006

2008 margin No Republican

2006 margin 60-22

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 77-22

Bush margin 2004 30-70

Current opponents There is a primary, but no declared Republican running

Demographics  76th lowest income (median = $34K), 56th fewest Whites (34.9%), 10th most Blacks (59.5%), 38th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

Continuing through the alphabet:

South Carolina has 6 representatives: 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats

Filing deadline was March 31, primary is June 10

South Dakota has 1 representative: A Democrat

Filing deadline was March 25, primary is June 3

Tennessee has 9 representatives: 5 Democrats and 4 Republicans

Filing deadline was April 3, primary is August 7

District: SC-01

Location Almost all of coastal SC, bordering NC and the Atlantic, including Charleston

Representative Henry Brown (R)

First elected 2000

2006 margin 60-38

2004 margin 88-12 (vs. a Green)

Bush margin 2004 61=39

Notes on opponents little money

Current opponents A primary, then either

Linda Ketner or Ben Frasier.  No fundraising info on either Democrat.  Davis has about $1 million COH

Demographics 17th most veterans (17.2%), 78th most Blacks (20.9%)

Assessment

District: SC-02

Location Southern SC, stretching north to the middle of the state, bordering GA and the Atlantic, including Columbia

Representative Joe Wilson (R)

First elected 2001

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin 65-33

Bush margin 2004 60-39

Notes on opponents Michael Ellisor ran both times and raised little

Current opponents A primary then either Blaine Lotz or Rob Miller . No funding info on either Democrat.  Wilson has about $225K COH

Demographics 70th most veterans (15.1%), 60th most Blacks (26.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: SC-03

Location Northwestern SC, bordering GA

Representative Gresham Barrett (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 63-37

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 66-34

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents Jane Dyer

Demographics 49th most rural (49.7%), 80th most Blacks (20.5%), 50th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: SC-04

Location Northern SC, bordering NC

Representative Bob Inglis (R)

First elected 2004

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 70-29

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Ted Christian ; Paul Corden ; or Bryan McCanless. No fundraising info on the Democrats.  Inglis has about $300K COH

Demographics 42nd most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: SC-05

Location Northeastern SC, bordering NC

Representative John Spratt (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Notes on opponents In 2006, Ralph Norman raised $1.4 million to Spratt’s $2.7 million; in 2004, Albert Spencer raised little

Current opponents Albert Spencer (no fundraising info)

Demographics 35h most rural (53.3%), 80th fewest Latinos (1.8%)

Assessment Safe

District: SC-06

Location Southeastern quarter of SC, bordering the Atlantic, excluding Charleston

Representative James Clyburn (D)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 64-34

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Notes on opponents Gary McLeod ran twice and raised little

Current opponents Nancy Harrelson

Demographics 40th most rural (52.0%), 17th lowest income (median = $29K) 66th fewest Whites (40.3%), 14th most Blacks (56.7%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)

Assessment safe

District: SD-AL

Location You know, South Dakota.

Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D)

First elected  2004 (in a special election)

2006 margin 69-29

2004 margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 60-38

Notes on opponents In 2004, Larry Diedrich raised $2.5 million to Sandlin’s $4 million; the 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Chris Lien has raised about $119K and has almost all of it as COH; Sandlin has $650K COH

Demographics 58th most rural (48.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%), 66th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 8.1% Native Americans), 99th most Republican

Assessment probably safe

District: TN-01

Location Eastern TN, bordering VA and NC

Representative David Davis (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 61-37

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Notes on opponents Rick Trent raised only $77K to fight for this open seat

Current opponents Rob Russell , Michael Donihe. No funding info on either Democrat.  Davis has about $1 million COH

Demographics 71st most rural (44.6%), 38th lowest income (median = $31K), 16th most White (95%), 83rd fewest Blacks (2.1%), 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%), 50th most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: TN-02

Location Eastern TN, including Knoxville.  Borders NC

Representative John Duncan (R)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 78-22

2004 margin 79-19

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents John Greene ran both times, and raised little

Current opponents David Hancock, Robert Scott

Demographics 73rd most White (90.1%), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%), 86th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-03

Location Shaped sort of like a barbell, running from the GA border in the south, then narrowing and running NE to the VA and KY borders, where it widens again

Representative Zach Wamp (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Notes on opponents neither raised much

Current opponents Doug Vandagriff, no funding info.  Wamp has about $900K COH

Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: TN-04

Location Shaped like a lopsided U, starting south of Nashville in the middle of the state, south to the AL border, east to the GA border, then north to the KY border

Representative Lincoln Davis (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 55-44

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents  In 2004, Janice Bowling raised $300K to Davis’ $1.1 million; the 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents Monty Langford, Don Strong. No funding info on the Repubs; Davis has about $240K COH

Demographics 4th most rural (67.9%), 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 48th most Whites (92.6%), 68th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-05

Location Nashville and suburbs

Representative Jim Cooper (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 69-28

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 48-52

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Gerard Donovan, Vijay Kumar.  Donovan has $3K COH, no info on Kumar, Cooper raised about $200K and has about $100K COH

Demographics 68th most Blacks (23.4%)

Assessment safe

District: TN-06

Location Central part of northern TN bordering KY

Representative Bart Gordon (D)

First elected  1984

2006 margin 67-31

2004 margin 64-34

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents No Republicans

Demographics 63rd most rural (46.8%)

Assessment Free ride

District: TN-07

Location Another strange shaped district.  Most of it is in southwestern TN, bordering MS and AL, but it stretches north and east to the suburbs of Nashville, then north to the KY border

Representative Marsha Blackburn (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 66-32

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 66-33

Notes on opponents Bill Morrison raised less than $100K

Current opponents A primary, and then either Randy Morris or James Tomasik.  No info on either Democrat…Blackburn has about $1 million COH

Demographics 95th most rural (39.0%), 74th most Republican

Assessment long shot

District: TN-08

Location Northwestern TN, bordering AR, MO and KY

Representative John Tanner (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 74-26

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents  James Hart, who lost badly in 2004

Demographics 36th most rural (53.0%), 64th lowest income (median = $33K), 38th most Blacks (22.3%), 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: TN-09

Location Memphis and suburbs, bordering AR and MS

Representative Steve Cohen (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 60-22-18 (22 for an Independent)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 30-70

Notes on opponents Mark White raised $227K to Cohen’s $619K

Current opponents  A big primary battle, but no Republicans

Demographics 76th lowest income (median = $34K), 56th fewest Whites (34.9%), 10th most Blacks (59.5%), 60th most Democratic

Assessment  Safe for a Democrat