Tag: OK

Previous diaries

Summary:

 OH has 18 representatives: 10 D, 8 R

 OK has  5 representatives:  1 D, 4 R

 OR has  5 representatives:  4 D, 1 R

Possibly vulnerable:

 OH-01 (D)

 OH-02 (R)

 OH-15 (D)

 OH-16 (D)

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: OH-01

Location Southwestern OH, bordering IN and KY, including Cincinnati map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Steve Dreihaus (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 51-49 over Steve Chabot

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 55-44

Bush margin 2004 51-50

Current opponents Steven Chabot

Demographics   27th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Dreihaus ousted Chabot, the incumbent; now, there’s  a rematch.  Vulnerable.  Both Dreihaus and Chabot have raised about $400K.

District: OH-02

Location  Central part of southern OH, bordering KY  map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Jean Schmidt (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 374.5

First elected 2005

2008 margin 45-37 over Vic Wulsin.  Remainder to David Krikorian, an independent.

2006 margin 50-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 40-59

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents There are 4 confirmed Democrats:

Vic Wulsin

Jack Krikorian (no web site)

Jim Parker

and

Todd Book

Demographics  22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%)

Assessment Schmidt is truly odious, and this district is becoming more Democratic by the day – although it is still a Republican stronghold.  I met Wulsin in 2008, and I like her.

District: OH-03

Location Southwestern OH, including Dayton  map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Mike Turner (R)

VoteView 278

First elected 2002

2008 margin 64-36 over Jane Mitikides

2006 margin 59-41

2004 margin 62-38

Obama margin 47-51

Bush margin 2004 46-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-04

Location Slightly north and west of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Jim Jordan (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 426

First elected 2006

2008 margin 65-35 over Mike Carroll

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 34-65

Current opponents

Demographics 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-05

Location Northwestern OH, bordering MI and IN  map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Bob Latta (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 345

First elected 2007

2008 margin 64-36 over George Mays

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 41st most rural (51.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)  

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-06

Location Southeastern OH, a long narrow strip along the whole of the border with WV map

Cook PVI R + 2

Representative Charlie Wilson (D)

VoteView 205.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin 62-33 over Richard Stobbs

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents Donald Allen

Demographics 47th most rural (50.0%),  62nd poorest (median income = $33K), 11th most White (95.2%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment Although this is a swing district in POTUS, Wilson looks safe.

District: OH-07

Location Just south of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Steve Austria (R) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 58-42 over Sharen Neuhardt

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-08

Location Central part of western OH, bordering IN map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative John Boehner (R)

VoteView 407.5

First elected 1990

2008 margin 68-32 over Nicholas von Stein

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 69-31

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 73rd most Whites (91.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment

District: OH-09

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including Toledo map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Marcy Kaptur (D)

VoteView 72

First elected 1982

2008 margin 74-26 over Bradley Leavitt

2006 margin 74-26

2004 margin 68-32

Obama margin 62-36

Bush margin 2004 42-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-10

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including part of Cleveland map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Dennis Kucinich (D)

VoteView 2

First elected 1996

2008 margin 57-39 over Jim Trakas

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 60-34

Obama margin 59-39

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-11

Location Cleveland and eastern suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 32

Representative Marcia Fudge (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 85-15 over Tom Pekarik

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 85-14

Bush margin 2004 18-81

Current opponents Safe

Demographics 52nd lowest income (median = $32K), 63rd fewest Whites (38.8%), 18th most Blacks (55.5%)

Assessment

District: OH-12

Location Central OH, including part of Columbus map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Pat Tiberi (R)

VoteView 316

First elected 2000

2008 margin 55-42 over David Robinson

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 62-38

Obama margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents Paula Brooks (obviously not a full web  site)

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment From the Cook PVI numbers, it should be a bit vulnerable; I don’t know anything about Paula Brooks.

District: OH-13

Location Northern OH, including Akron map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Betty Sutton (D)

VoteView 98.5

First elected 2006

2008 margin 65-35 over David Potter

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 57-42

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-14

Location Northeastern corner of OH, bordering PA and Lake Erie map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative Steven LaTourette (R)

VoteView 264

First elected 1994

2008 margin 58-39 over Bill O’Neill

2006 margin 58-39

2004 margin 63-37

Obama margin 49-49

Bush margin 2004 53-44

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 30th fewest in poverty (5.7%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-15

Location Central OH, including Columbus map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

VoteView NA

First elected  2008

2008 margin 311 votes out of 260,000 over Steve Stivers

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 50-50

Current opponents David Ryon and Steve Stivers

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Vulnerable

District: OH-16

Location North and east of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative John Boccieri (D) Not confirmed

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 54-46 over Kirk Schuring

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot of rumors and people considering running, see the WIKI

Demographics 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment A freshman in a Republican district has to be considered vulnerable

District: OH-17

Location  Northeastern OH, bordering PA, including Youngstown map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Tim Ryan (D)

VoteView 109

First elected 2002

2008 margin 78-22 over Duane Grassell

2006 margin 80-20

2004 margin 77-23

Obama margin 62-36

Bush margin 2004 63-37

Current opponents No Republicans, but a bunch of Democrats are considering primaries, see the WIKI

Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe for the Democrat, Ryan or other

District: OH-18

Location South and east of central OH map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Zack Space (D)

VoteView 217

First elected 2006

2008 margin 60-40 over Fred Dailey

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-52

Bush margin 2004 57-41

Current opponents Jeannette Moll, possibly others

Demographics 24th most rural (56.7%), 7th most White (95.9%), tied for least Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment Looks fairly safe; Space fits the district.

District: OK-01

Location  Shaped like a key standing on end, centered on Tulsa in northeast OK, a tiny bit of border with KS map

Cook PVI R + 16

Representative John Sullivan (R)

VoteView 401

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-34 over Georgianna Oliver

2006 margin 64-31

2004 margin 60-38

Obama margin 34-66

Bush margin 2004 35-65

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-02

Location Eastern OK, bordering MO and AR map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Dan Boren (D)

VoteView 225

First elected 2004

2008 margin 70-30 over Raymond Wickson

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 66-34

Obama margin 34-66

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents Dan Arnett and David Edmonds

Demographics 9th most rural (64.4%), 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 11th most nonWhite, nonBlack, NonLatino (mostly 16.8% American Indian)

Assessment Boren isn’t exactly a progressive (UNDERSTATEMENT) but he did 36 points better than Obama.  He seems safe.

District: OK-03

Location The panhandle of OK, and east to Oklahoma City suburbs, borders TX, NM, CO, and KS map

Cook PVI R + 24

Representative Frank Lucas (R)

VoteView 315

First elected 1994

2008 margin 70-24 over Frankie Robbins

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 82-18 (vs. minor party)

Obama margin 27-73

Bush margin 2004 72-28

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 54th most rural (49.3%), 53rd lowest income (median = $32K)

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-04

Location Southwestern OK, bordering TX, including suburbs of Oklahoma City map

Cook PVI R + 18

Representative Tom Cole (R)

VoteView 330

First elected 2002

2008 margin 66-29 over Blake Cummings

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 78-22 (against minor party)

Obama margin 34-66

Bush margin 2004 59-41

Current opponents No Democrats, but there is a primary

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-05

Location Oklahoma City and some points southeast of there map

Cook PVI R + 13

Representative Mary Fallin (R) Retiring to run for Governor

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin NA

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 41-59

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Current opponents A lot of Republicans will probably run in a primary for this safe R seat

Demographics 78th lowest income (median = $34K)

Assessment Safe for whichever Repub wins

District: OR-01

Location  Northwestern OR, bordering WA and the Pacific, including parts of Portland and its suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative David Wu (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 132.5

First elected 1998

2008 margin 73% against several minor party candidates

2006 margin 63-34

2004 margin 58-38

Obama margin 61-36

Bush margin 2004 55-44

Current opponents Stephen Broadhead and Rob Corneilles

Demographics  36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)

Assessment Safe

District: OR-02

Location The eastern 2/3rds of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA  map

Cook PVI R + 10

Representative Greg Walden (R) May run for governor

VoteView 280

First elected 1998

2008 margin 70-26 over Noah Lemas

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 72-26

Obama margin 43-54

Bush margin 2004 61-38

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 15th most veterans (17.3%), 6th fewest Blacks (0.4%)

Assessment Safe for whichever Republican gets it, even if Walden runs.

District: OR-03

Location Northern OR, bordering WA, includes Portland and suburbs, and Mt Hood.  map

Cook PVI D + 19

Representative Earl Blumenauer (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 54

First elected 1996

2008 margin 75-25 over Delia Lopez

2006 margin 73-23

2004 margin 71-24

Obama margin 71-26

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OR-04

Location Southwestern OR, bordering CA and the Pacific, including Eugene  map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Peter DeFazio (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 142

First elected 1986

2008 margin 83% against several minor party candidates

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin 61-38

Obama margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 49-49

Current opponents Sid Leken an Jaynee Germond

Demographics   11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 24th most veterans (16.9%)

Assessment Safe

District: OR-05

Location  A T-shaped district in northwestern OR.  map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Kurt Schrader (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 55-38 over Mike Erickson

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot of Repubs considering a run, see the WIKI

Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)

Assessment Winning by 17 in your first race looks good; probably safe.  Schrader has raised $400K

Continuing on with a concept I developed called PBI or Party Brand Index (with some much appreciated help from pl515) as a replacement for PVI.  PVI (Partisan Voting Index), which is measured by averaging the percentage of the vote from the last two presidential elections in each house district, and comparing it to the nation as a whole, is a useful shorthand for understanding the liberal v. conservative dynamics of a district. But PVI in my opinion it falls short in a number of areas. First it doesn’t explain states like Arkansas or West Virginia. These states have districts who’s PVIs indicates a Democrat shouldn’t win, yet Democrats (outside of the presidency) win quite handily. Secondly why is this the case in Arkansas but not Oklahoma with similar PVI rated districts?

Lastly PVI can miss trends as it takes 4 years to readjust. The purpose of Party Brand Index is to give a better idea of how a candidate does not relative to how the presidential candidate did, but compared to how their generic PARTY should be expected to perform. Last week I tackled NC, this week I’m tackling MO, OK, AR.

This week I skipped my normal pattern of working out from purple states.  I became curious on how my model would work in a state like Arkansas that is deeply blue at the local level, but deeply red at the presidential level. Also I started to develop the first “holes” in my model with my PBI numbers for representatives like Ike Skelton (D-MO). If I want to replace PBI with PVI ignoring “obviously” flawed results doesn’t help. First I will publish my results, then my proposed corrections. As a reminder a Democratic lean to a district get a positive number, a GOP lean gets a negative number.

MISSOURI:

ARKANSAS:



OKLAHOMA:

Ike Skelton in the Missouri 4th with a PBI of – 3 compared to a PVI of – 14 just didn’t seem right. So I jumped ahead of my schedule and did the numbers for Arkansas and Oklahoma, I got a PBI number of 27 compared to – 7 for Rep. Ross D-AR, and a PBI of 3 versus a -14 PVI for Dan Boren of Oklahoma. Ross at least could be argued as possible. Sen. Pryor didn’t even have a Republican challenger, Blanche Lincoln crushed her opponent, and Democrats in Arkansas have the largest margin in state house outside of Massachusetts in the entire country. Ross’ numbers are as much a reflection of the utter incompetence of the Arkansas GOP at the local level, that bares nor resemblance to their strength at the presidential level.  But Boren in Oklahoma seems a little weird. pl515) suggested correcting for ideology. Since Rep. Boren nearly refused to endorse Obama a case could be made he is getting elected in ruby red Oklahoma (a state where Obama loss every single county) because he is barely a Democrat.

I developed a formula based on standard deviations. Basically I can figure out how much the average rep deviates from their district.  If I then compare where a reps voting pattern falls (in what percentile) and compare it to their district’s PVI, I can develop a “standard deviation factor”. Inside the standard deviation will get a bonus, outside a negative. The idea is that if a Blue Dog has a very conservative record, they may be surviving not because of a districts Democratic leanings but because they deviate from Democratic policies.

For example, if Rep X is the 42 most conservative rep, that would place her in the 90th percentile. But if her district’s PVI was “only” the in the 60th, their is a good chance her margins would be effected. Using a few random samples I found most reps lie within 12% of their district’s PVI.

Using these dummy numbers I then came up with this.  

   SQRT[(30-12)^2 /2] = about 13%

    Her factor would then be 100 – 13 = 0.87.

So her victory margin would be weighted by 0.87 because she is more than 12% beyond her acceptable percentile range it making the victories in her district approximate 13% less “representative”.

    My theory yields the following formula:

        If rep’s voting record is > PVI then

            100 – SQRT[({Record percentile – PVI} – Standard PVI Sigma)^2 /2] = factor

        else if rep’s voting record < PVI

             100 + SQRT[({Record percentile – PVI} – Standard PVI Sigma)^2 /2] = factor

I then repeated this formula to calculate a partisanship correction factor. Ranking a members ideology is a subjective decision. Potentially what’s one person “liberal” position, is another person “conservative” ones, remember the wingers developed a model that ranked the Sen. Obama as more liberal than Bernie Sanders or Russ Feingold. But partisanship, how often a member votes with their party is an absolute number. A Democrat who represents a “republican district” would be expected to “break with their party” on votes that don’t reflect their districts values.

I couldn’t find a website that ranks all the districts based on their PVI (I only could find list of them by state not rank, help please anyone), therefor I substituted a PVI ranking with where each member ranked in the Democratic caucus. In the 110th Congress the average Democrat had an ideological ranking of 170 (by the way this is a result of several members being tied, this is the medium not the midpoint). The average of members towards the center was 191, former Daily Kos celeb Ciro Rodriguez fell at exactly 191. The average of members towards the liberal side was 121, which falls between Rep. Larson of Conn. and Rep. Eshoo of CA. As or partisanship in the 110th Congress the average Democrat voted with their party 92.3% of the time.

FOUR BLUE DOGS

Better but still not perfect. PBI Adjustment number two is the model I’m currently most happy with. My model “predict” an Ike Skelton “loss” with a PBI of – 4, Rep. Boren of Oklahoma is at even money with a 0 PBI. Once I’m happy with my model I will do a back run to see how it accesses past members who loss election bids last cycle. As I said earlier, Ross’ numbers are as much a reflection of the utter incompetence of the Arkansas GOP at the local level, that bares nor resemblance to their strength at the presidential level. In other words the Democratic brand is very strong in Arkansas at the local level.

Rep. Baron Hill of Indiana numbers are an indication of the Democratic brands resurgence in the Hoosier state. Rep. Hill won his three races by an average of 11%, with his medium victory being 10%, my model predicts he represents a district where a Democrat should win by 9%.

As a clarification in Adjustment #1, I used a deviation factor based on how far each member was from the center of the Democratic caucus. Adjustment #2 was based on how far each member was from outside the standard deviation of the caucus. In Adjustment #3 I removed the partisanship factor to see what effect it would have.

Because there are “only” 50 states (as opposed to evaluating 435 house members), after Netroots Nation I will have all the states ranked by PVI so I can adjust the Senator’s rankings. I developed Senate factors for the four states the four blue dogs came from. In the interest of full disclosure, my source for ideological rankings is Voteview, and for partisanship it was the Washington Post. This is still a work in progress, I’m making adjustments, and continuing to crunch numbers for more states. I also will use the adjustment factor on a liberal member of congress to see what effect that will have. Finally all future charts will incorporate color schemes.

Continuing through the alphabet

Ohio has 18 representatives: 11 R, 7 D

Filing deadline was Jan 4, primary was March 4

Oklahoma has 5 representatives: 4 R and 1 D

Filing deadline is June 4, primary is July 29

District: OH-01

Location Southwestern OH, bordering IN and KY, including Cincinnati

Representative Steve Chabot (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 52-48

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2004, his opponent raised little; in 2006, John Cranley raised $2 million to Chabot’s $3 million

Current opponents   Steven Dreihaus . Thru 2/13, Chabot has raised $1.1 million and Dreihaus $516K; COH $1million and $430K

Demographics 27th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it the 19th most vulnerable Republican seat; Dreihaus is minority Whip in the State House.

District: OH-02

Location Central part of southern OH, bordering KY

Representative Jean Schmidt (R)

First elected 2005

2006 margin 50-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Notes on opponents In 2006, Victoria Wulsin raised $1 million to Schmidt’s $2 million

Current opponents Victoria Wulsin has raised $546K, to Schmidt’s $414K; COH is $170K and $102K, respectively.

Demographics 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 61st most Republican

Assessment Highly vulnerable. On DCCC list , Superribbie ranks it 16th most vulnerable Republican seat. How often is a challenger ahead of an incumbent in fundraising?  OTOH, a recent poll showed Schmidt well ahead.

District: OH-03

Location Southwestern OH, including Dayton

Representative Mike Turner (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 59-41

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 54-45

Notes on opponents each raised about $400K to $500K, Turner about $1 million each time

Current opponents Jane Mitakides has raised $85K to Turner’s $741K; COH is $75K and $483K.

Demographics  26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable Superribbie ranks it 74th most vulnerable Republican seat.

District: OH-04

Location Slightly north and west of central OH

Representative Jim Jordan (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 60-40

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents In 2006, this was an open seat and Rick Seferd raised $161K to Jordan’s $1.3 million

Current opponents Mike Carroll .  No funding data.

Demographics 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%), 50th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-05

Location Northwestern OH, bordering MI and IN

Representative Bob Latta (R)

First elected  Appointed

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 61-39

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents George Mays . No funding data

Demographics 41st most rural (51.1%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-06

Location Southeastern OH, a long narrow strip along the whole of the border with WV

Representative Charlie Wilson (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, this was an open seat, and Wilson spent $1.8 million, his opponent Chuck Blasdell spent $1 million

Current opponents Rich Stobbs, who has an inactive website and has raised no money.

Demographics 47th most rural (50.0%),  62nd poorest (median income = $33K), 11th most White (95.2%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment Safe. Although Superribbie ranks it 41st most vulnerable Democratic seat, Stobbs does not appear to be actively running.

District: OH-07

Location Just south of central OH

Representative  David Hobson (R) retiring

First elected  1990

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Sharon Neuhardt has raised $70K; the Republican (Austria) has raised $400K

Demographics 26th fewest Latinos (1.1%)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it 47th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: OH-08

Location Central part of western OH, bordering IN.

Representative John Boehner (R)

First elected  1990

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Nick von Stein . No funding info.

Demographics 73rd most Whites (91.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%), 74th most Republican

Assessment Long shot.

District: OH-09

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including Toledo

Representative  Marcy Kaptur (D)

First elected  1982

2006 margin 74-36

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 42-58

Notes on opponents In 2004, Larry Kaczala raised $255K to Kaptur’s $615K

Current opponents Bradley Leavitt. No funding info.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-10

Location Northern OH, bordering Lake Erie, including part of Cleveland

Representative Dennis Kucinich (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 60-34

Bush margin 2004 41-58

Notes on opponents In 2004, Edward Herman raised $300K to Kucinich’s $400K.  The 2006 opponent raised little

Current opponents  Jim Trakas has raised very little, Kucinich has over $300K COH.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-11

Location Cleveland and eastern suburbs

Representative Stephanie Tubbs Jones (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 83-17

2004 margin Unopposed

Bush margin 2004 18-81

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents  Thomas Pekarek, no funding info

Demographics 52nd lowest income (median = $32K), 63rd fewest Whites (38.8%), 18th most Blacks (55.5%), 18th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: OH-12

Location Central OH, including part of Columbus

Representative Pat Tiberi (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 57-43

2004 margin 62-38

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Bob Shamanasky raised $1.6 million to Tiberi’s $3 million

Current opponents David Robinson has raised about $10K to Tiberi’s $1 million

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: OH-13

Location Northern OH, including Akron

Representative Betty Sutton (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 61-39

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Notes on opponents Craig Foltin raised $600K to Sutton’s $1.3 million

Current opponents David Potter. No funding info.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: OH-14

Location Northeastern corner of OH, bordering PA and Lake Erie

Representative Steven LaTourette (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 58-39

2004 margin 63-37

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, Lewis Katz raised $200K to LaTourette’s $1.4 million.  In 2004, Capri Cafaro raised $2 million to LaTourrette’s $2.4 million

Current opponents William O’Neill has raised $200K ($94K COH) to LaTourrette’s $700K ($570K COH)

Demographics 30th fewest in poverty (5.7%), 30th most Whites (93.8%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%),

Assessment Slightly vulnerable. On DCCC list , Superribbie ranks it 59th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: OH-15

Location Central OH, including Columbus

Representative Deborah Pryce retiring (R)

First elected  1992

2006 margin 1,155 votes out of 220,000

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 2,000 votes of 300,000

Notes on opponents In 2006, Mary Jo Kilroy raised $2.7 million to Pryce’s $4.7 million

Current opponents   Mary Jo Kilroy who came so close in 2006, has raised $917K ($713K COH); the Republican, Steve Stivers – $505K raised and $404 COH

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Highly vulnerable. On DCCC list . Superribbie ranks it 5th most vulnerable Republican seat

District: OH-16

Location North and east of central OH

Representative Ralph Regula (R) retiring

First elected  1972

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 67=33

Bush margin 2004 54-46

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Democrat John Boccieri will run against Republican Kirk Schuring.  Boccieri has raised $467K ($330K COH0; Schuring raised $327K ($84K COH).

Demographics 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)

Assessment Vulnerable On DCCC list , Superribbie ranks it 18th most vulerable Republican seat; plus Boccieri has a big lead in COH, and is raising more money

District: OH-17

Location  Northeastern OH, bordering PA, including Youngstown

Representative Tim Ryan (D)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 80-20

2004 margin 77-23

Bush margin 2004 33-67

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Duane Grassell. No funding info.

Demographics 67th fewest Latinos (1.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: OH-18

Location South and east of central OH

Representative Zack Space (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 62-38

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Joy Padgett raised $850K to Space’s $1.6 million

Current opponents Fred Dailey has raised $111K ($48K COH and $30K in debt).  Space has raised $1.2 million ($811K COH, $11K debt)

Demographics 24th most rural (56.7%), 7th most White (95.9%), tied for least Latinos (0.6%)

Assessment  Slightly vulnerable. It’s on DCCC list , Superribbie ranks it 28th most vulnerable Democratic seat. But Space has a huge fundraising edge, and won easily in 2006

District: OK-01

Location Shaped like a key standing on end, centered on Tulsa in northeast OK, a tiny bit of border with KS

Representative John Sullivan (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 64-31

2004 margin 60-38

Bush margin 2004 65-35

Notes on opponents In 2004, Doug Dodd raised $300K to Sullivan’s $1 million.  In 2006, Alan Gentges raised little

Current opponents

Demographics 61st most Republican

Assessment

District: OK-02

Location Eastern OK, bordering MO and AR

Representative Dan Boren (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 73-27

2004 margin 66-34

Bush margin 2004 59-41

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None

Demographics 9th most rural (64.4%), 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 11th most nonWhite, nonBlack, NonLatino (mostly 16.8% American Indian)

Assessment Safe.  Boren is rather conservative, but it’s a safe Democratic seat in a Republican district and a Republican state

District: OK-03

Location The panhandle of OK, and east to Oklahoma City suburbs, borders TX, NM, CO, and KS

Representative Frank Lucas (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 67-33

2004 margin 82-18 (vs. minor party)

Bush margin 2004 72-28

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None

Demographics 54th most rural (49.3%), 53rd lowest income (median = $32K), 18th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-04

Location Southwestern OK, bordering TX, including suburbs of Oklahoma City

Representative Tom Cole (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 65-35

2004 margin 78-22 (against a minor party)

Bush margin 2004 67-33

Notes on opponents No money

Current opponents None

Demographics 61st most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: OK-05

Location Oklahoma City and some points southeast of there

Representative Mary Fallin (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 60-37

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 64-36

Notes on opponents David Hunter raised $400K to Fallon’s $1.6 million, running for this open seat in 2006

Current opponents Bert Smith . No funding info.  Fallon has about $350K COH

Demographics 78th lowest income (median = $34K), 74th most Republican

Assessment Long shot