Continuing through the alphabet.
Oregon has 5 representatives: 4 Democrats and 1 Republican
Filing deadline was March 11, primary is May 20
Pennsylvania has 19 representatives: 11 Democrats and 8 Republicans
Filing deadline was Feb 12, primary is April 22
Rhode Island has 2 districts, both Democrats
Filing deadline is June 25, primary Sept 9
District: OR-01
Location Northwestern OR, bordering WA and the Pacific, including parts of Portland and its suburbs
Representative David Wu (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 63-34
2004 margin 58-38
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Notes on opponents In 2004, Goli Ameri raised $2.3 million to Wu’s $2.7 million. In 2006, Derrick Kitts raised about $140K to Wu’s $1.1 million
Current opponents Wu is facing a primary, and then either Stephen Brodhead, CW Chappell or Joel Haugan. No fundraising reports from anyone but Wu, who has $600K COH
Demographics 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%)
Assessment Safe
District: OR-02
Location The eastern 2/3rds of OR, bordering WA, ID, NV, and CA
Representative Greg Walden (R)
First elected 1998
2006 margin 67-30
2004 margin 72-26
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents Noah Lemas (no website, no fundraising report)
Demographics 15th most veterans (17.3%), 6th fewest Blacks (0.4%)
Assessment Long shot
District: OR-03
Location Northern OR, bordering WA, includes Portland and suburbs, and Mt Hood.
Representative Earl Blumenauer (D)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 73-23
2004 margin 71-24
Bush margin 2004 33-67
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents A primary and then Delia Lopez. No fundraising reports from anyone but Blumenauer, who has $465 COH
Demographics 60th most Democratic
Assessment safe
District: OR-04
Location Southwestern OR, bordering CA and the Pacific, including Eugene
Representative Peter DeFazio (D)
First elected 1986
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 61-38
Bush margin 2004 49-49
Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Feldekamp raised $600 K to DeFazio’s $900K; he ran again in 2006, raising $500K to DeFazio’s $750K
Current opponents None. DeFazio has $360K COH….he should share
Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 24th most veterans (16.9%)
Assessment Free ride.
District: OR-05
Location A T-shaped district in northwestern OR.
Representative Darlene Hooley (D) retiring
First elected 1996
2006 margin 54-43
2004 margin 53-44
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Zupancic raised $1.3 million to Hooley’s $2 million; in 2006, Mike Erickson raised $1.8 million to Hooley’s $2 million
Current opponents Democrats:
Kurt Schrader
Andrew Foster (no web site), Nancy Moran (no web site),
Steve Marks
Richard Nathe (no website) and a bunch of Republicans. No fundraising reports from the Dems
Demographics 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%)
Assessment Seems vulnerable, but I don’t know
District: PA-01
Location Some of Philadelphia and some suburbs
Representative Robert Brady (D)
First elected 1998
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 86-13
Bush margin 2004 15-84
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Mike Muhammad. No fundraising report. Brady has $678,000 COH, he should share
Demographics 14th lowest income (median = $28K), 52nd fewest Whites (33%), 27th most Blacks (45%), 8th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: PA-02
Location Philadelphia and suburbs
Representative Chaka Fattah
First elected 1994
2006 margin 89-9
2004 margin 88-12
Bush margin 2004 12-87
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents Mike Livingston, no fundraising report. Fattah has $183 COH.
Demographics 32nd lowest income (median = $31K), 46th fewest Whites (29.9%), 7th most Blacks (60.7%), 4th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: PA-03
Location Northwestern PA, bordering Lake Erie, OH, and NY
Representative Phil English (R)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 54-42
2004 margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Notes on opponents Steven Porter ran in 2004 and 2006, raising about $200K each time, English had about $1.5 million each time
Current opponents Kyle Foust $55K raised, $25K COH
Mike Waltner $100K raised, $65K COH
Tom Myers $140K raised, $75K COH
Kathy Dahlkemper $154K raised, $117K COH;
Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the 50th most vulnerable Republican seat. On the DCCC list . The fact that all those Democrats are running is a sign that English is vulnerable.
District: PA-04
Location Western PA, bordering OH
Representative Jason Altmire (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 52-48
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Notes on opponents In 2006, Altmire ousted Melissa Hart, raising $1.1 million, about half what she raised
Current opponents Hart is back for a rematch, but she has a primary challenger (Ron Francis). Francis has raised $160K, $113 COH; Hart has raised $385K, $332K COH.
Altmire has raised $1.1 million, $911K COH
Demographics 21st most White (94.3%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the ninth most vulnerable Democratic seat, and it’s on the DCCC list . While not safe, Altmire beat Hart, with less money than her, when she was an incumbent. Now he’s got more money, and he’s the incumbent. I don’t think it’s quite as vulnerable as Superribbie.
District: PA-05
Location Northern PA, bordering NY.
Representative John Peterson (R) retiring
First elected 1996
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 88-12 against a Libertarian
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Notes on opponents In 2006, Don Hilliard raised no money and still got 40%
Current opponents Democrats:
Mark McCracken
Bill Cahir
Rick Vilello
Lots of Republicans. No fundraising numbers from anyone
Demographics 32nd most rural (54%), 6th lowest income (median = $33K), 6th most Whites (96%), 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%), 99th most Republican
Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it as the 58th most vulnerable Republican seat. The fact that we are competitive here, in a naturally Republican seat, is a really good sign
District: PA-06
Location West of Philadelphia
Representative Jim Gerlach (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin 51-49
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Notes on opponents Lois Murphy ran in 2004 and 2006, in 2004, she raised $1.9 million to Gerlach’s $2.2 million; in 2006, she raised $4 million to his $3.5 million
Current opponents Bob Roggio no funding info. Gerlach has $500K COH
Demographics 70th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment Somewhat vulnerable, Superribbie ranks it as the 22nd most vulnerable Republican seat. On the DCCC list . Not sure why Roggio has no FEC numbers
District: PA-07
Location Southeastern PA, bordering DE, including King of Prussia
Representative Joe Sestak (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 56-44
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Notes on opponents In 2006, Sestak ousted Curt Weldon; each raised about $3 million
Current opponents Curt Weldon has $90K COH (but, per comments, appears to not be in it), Craig Williams, no info. Sestak has $1.7 million COH
Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K), 41st fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the 36th most vulnerable Democratic seat; Sestak’s formidable fundraising advantage makes it a little less vulnerable, I think
District: PA-08
Location The southeast corner of PA, bordering NJ
Representative Patrick Murphy (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 1418 votes out of 250,000
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Notes on opponents In 2006, Murphy ousted Mike Fitzpatrick; Murphy raised $2.4 million to Fitzpatrick’s $3.2
Current opponents Thomas Manion (no funding info); Murphy has $1.2 million COH
Demographics 44th highest income (median = $59K),
Assessment Superribbie ranks it as the 22nd most vulnerable Democratic seat. On the DCCC list . Another potentially close race, where we appear to have a huge lead in fundraising
District: PA-09
Location The central part of southern PA, bordering MD and a little of WV
Representative Bill Shuster (R)
First elected 2001
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 69-30
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Notes on opponents Neither raised much
Current opponents Tony Barr who got 40% with almost no money in 2006, is running again. No funding info on Barr, but Shuster has only $188K COH, not much for an incumbent at this stage
Demographics 19th most rural (59.5%), 3rd most White (96.4%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%), 2nd fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino, 42nd most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: PA-10
Location Northeastern PA, bordering NY and NJ
Representative Christopher Carney (D)
First elected 2006
2006 margin 53-47
2004 margin NA
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Notes on opponents In 2006, Carney ousted Don Sherwood, spending $1.5 million to Sherwood’s $3 million
Current opponents Dan Meuser has raised the most of several Republicans: He has $398 COH; Chris Hackett has $386K; others much less. Carney has $766K.
Demographics 27th most rural (55.4%), 9th most White (95.5%), 71st least Black (1.9%), 51st least Latinos (1.4%)
Assessment Very vulnerable Superribbie ranks it as the 5th most vulnerable Democratic seat. On the DCCC list .
District: PA-11
Location Eastern PA, including Scranton and Wilkes-Barre
Representative Paul Kanjorski (D)
First elected 1984
2006 margin 72-28
2004 margin 94-6 against a minor party
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Notes on opponents No money
Current opponents Lou Barletta has $851 COH and $300K in debt (hmmmm….). Kanjorski has $1.5 million. He should share
Demographics 97th lowest income (median = $35K)
Assessment Safe
District: PA-12
Location An odd, thready district in southwest PA
Representative John Murtha (D)
First elected 1974
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin unopposed
Bush margin 2004 49-51
Notes on opponents In 2006, Diana Irey raised $850K to Murtha’s $3.2 million.
Current opponents William Russell has $25K COH, Murtha has $529K
Demographics 32nd poorest (median income = $31K), 16th most Whites (95.0%). 3rd fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Safe
District: PA-13
Location Suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia
Representative Allyson Schwartz (D)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 56-44
Bush margin 2004 43-56
Notes on opponents In 2004, this seat was open and Schwartz beat Melissa Brown, raising $4.5 million to Brown’s $1.9 million. In 2006, Raj Bhakta raised $400K to Schwartz’ $2.2 million
Current opponents Marina Kats has no fundraising report. Schwartz has $1.6 million COH, she should share
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: PA-14
Location Pittsburgh and suburbs
Representative Mike Doyle (D)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 90-10 (against a Green)
2004 margin unopposed
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents No Republican; Doyle has $400K COH
Demographics 26th lowest income (median = $30K), 71st most Blacks (22.5%), 41st most Democratic
Assessment Free ride
District: PA-15
Location Central part of eastern NJ, including Allentown and Bethlehem, bordering NJ
Representative Charlie Dent (R)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 54-43
2004 margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 Kerry won by 786 votes out of 300,000
Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat, and Dent beat Joe Driscoll, each spending about $2 million. In 2006, Charles Dertinger raised little
Current opponents Sam Bennett has raised $194K and has $94K COH; Dent has over $500K COH. Bennett is one of my favorite candidates.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it as the 32nd most vulnerable Republican seat.
District: PA-16
Location Southeastern PA, centering on Lancaster
Representative Joe Pitts (R)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 57-40
2004 margin 64-34
Bush margin 2004 61-38
Notes on opponents Lois Herr ran both times, raising about $80K the first time and $300K in 2006; Pitts raised just under $500K the first time and just over that in 2006
Current opponents Bruce Slater has just $7K COH, to Pitts’ $175K
Demographics 86th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: PA-17
Location South and east of central PA, including Harrisburg
Representative Tim Holden (D)
First elected 1992
2006 margin 65-35
2004 margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Notes on opponents In 2004, Scott Paterno raised $1 million to Holden’s $1.6 million. The 2006 opponent raised little
Current opponents Toni Gilhooley has $31K COH to Holden’s $780K
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: PA-18
Location Suburbs of Pittsburgh
Representative Tim Murphy (R)
First elected 2002
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin 63-37
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Notes on opponents Each raised about $100K, Murphy raised over $1 million each time
Current opponents Beth Hafer $106K raised, $42K COH
Brien Wall $35K raised, $16K COH
Steve O’Donnell $260K raised, $203K COH
Daniel Wholey $56K raised, $45K COH
Demographics 10th most Whites (95.4%), 77th fewest Blacks (2.0%), tied for fewest Latinos (0.6%)
Assessment Vulnerable. Superribbie ranks it as the 60th most vulnerable Republican seat. On the DCCC list
District: PA-19
Location Southern PA including Gettysburg
Representative Todd Platts (R)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 64-33
2004 margin 91-4 against a Green
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Notes on opponents Phillip Avilo raised $175K against Platts’ $375K
Current opponents Phil Avilo , no fundraising info
Demographics 68th most Whites (92.2%)
Assessment Long shot
District: RI-01
Location Northern and eastern RI, bordering MA and CT
Representative Patrick Kennedy (D)
First elected 1994
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 64-36
Bush margin 2004 36-62
Notes on opponents In 2004, David Rogers and Kennedy each raised about $2 million. In 2006, his opponent raised little
Current opponents None; Kennedy has $700K COH, he should share
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment safe
District: RI-02
Location Most of the state
Representative Jim Langevin (D)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 73-27 against an Independent
2004 margin 75-21
Bush margin 2004 41-57
Notes on opponents No money for Republicans
Current opponents None
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
