Previous diares
Summary:
MN has 8 reps: 5 D, 3 R
MS has 4 reps: 3 D, 1 R
MO has 9 reps: 4 D, 5 R
MT has 1 rep, a Repub.
Possibly vulnerable:
MN-03 (R) MN-06 (R)
MO-09 (R) (maybe)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from WaPo
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
District: MN-01
Location The southern part of MN, bordering WI, IA, and SD map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Tim Walz (D)
VoteView 190
First elected 2006
2008 margin 63-33 over Brian Davis
2006 margin 53-37
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 51-47
Bush margin 2004 51-47
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 77th most rural (43.5%), 31st fewest Blacks (1.0%)
Assessment Safe
District: MN-02
Location Southern suburbs and exurbs of twin cities map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative John Kline (R)
VoteView 397
First elected 2002
2008 margin 57-43 over Steve Sarvi
2006 margin 56-40
2004 margin 56-40
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 45-54
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 36th highest income (median = $61K), 10th fewest in poverty (3.9%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%)
Assessment This district is becoming more D, but maybe not quickly enough for 2010. Plus, Kline has raised 333K already.
District: MN-03
Location Suburbs of the twin cities map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Erik Paulsen (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 49-41 over Ashwin Madia, remainder to David Dillon (INP), who looks pretty progressive.
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 52-46
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 6th wealthiest (median income = $64K), 5th fewest in poverty (3.5%), 80th fewest Blacks (3.8%)
Assessment This one looks possible; I think most of the 11% that went to Dillon would go Democratic.
District: MN-04
Location St. Paul and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative Betty McCollum (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 77
First elected 2000
2008 margin 69-31 over Ed Matthews
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin 57-33
Obama margin 64-32
Bush margin 2004 34-57
Current opponents Ed Matthews
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MN-05
Location map
Cook PVI D + 23
Representative Keith Ellison (D)
VoteView 11
First elected 2006
2008 margin 71-22 over Barb White
2006 margin 56-21
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 74-24
Bush margin 2004 71-28
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 40th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: MN-06
Location Mostly in central MN, but extending east and south to the WI border map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Michelle Bachmann (R)
VoteView 399
First elected 2006
2008 margin 46-43 over El Tinklenberg, remainder to Bob Anderson. It’s hard to say who Anderson hurt – he says he’s a ‘conservative alternative to Bachmann’. Bachmann did run more behind McCain (7 points) than El behind Obama (2 points).
2006 margin 50-42 over John Binkowski
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 45-53
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents El Tinklenburg and Maureen Reed (site being worked on)
Demographics 53rd highest income (median = $57K), 18th fewest in poverty (4/7%), 18th most Whites (94.9%), 28th fewest Blacks (0.9%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)
Assessment Bachmann is vulnerable. She’s insane. But she’s already raised $600K. On the other hand, Reed has raised $230K. For a challenger, that’s impressive. I have no figures for Tinklenburg.
District: MN-07
Location Western MN, bordering SD and ND and Canada map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Collin Peterson (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 214
First elected 1990
2008 margin 72-28 over Glenn Menzie
2006 margin 70-26
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 47-50
Bush margin 2004 43-55
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 6th most rural (66%), 22nd most Whites (93.1%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%)
Assessment Safe. OK, Peterson is a very conservative Democrat; still, he wins easily in a Republican district, without using up much money.
District: MN-08
Location map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative James Oberstar (D)
VoteView 107
First elected 1974
2008 margin 68-32 over Michael Cummins
2006 margin 64-34
2004 margin 65-32
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 12th most rural (62.6%), 34th most veterans (16.2%), 20th most Whites (94.6%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)
Assessment Safe
District: MS-01
Location Northeastern MS, bordering TN and AL, including Tupelo map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Travis Childers (D)
VoteView 239
First elected 2007 (replaced Wicker)
2008 margin 54-44
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 62-37
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 15th most rural (61.5%), 5th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlack (1.1%), 58th lowest income (median = $33K)
Assessment Safe. Childers, one of the most conervative Democrats in the House, wins here. Easily.
District: MS-02
Location Western MS, bordering AR and LA map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative Bennie Thompson (D)
VoteView 45
First elected 1993
2008 margin 69-31 over Richard Cook
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 58-41
Obama margin 66-33
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 8th poorest (median income = $27K), 10th most in poverty (27.3%), 3rd most Blacks (63.2%, only IL01 and LA02 are higher), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)
Assessment Safe.
District: MS-03
Location Runs SW to NE, from Natchez, in the southwest, to Starkville, in the northeast. Borders both LA and AL map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Gregg Harper (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 63-37 over Joel Gill
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 38-61
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Current opponents Joel Gill
Demographics 18th most rural (59.7%), 51st poorest (median income = $32K), 39th most Black (33.1%), 33rd least Latino (1.2%
Assessment Long shot.
District: MS-04
Location Southeastern MS, bordering AL, LA, and the Gulf map
Cook PVI R + 20
Representative Gene Taylor (D)
VoteView 219
First elected 1989
2008 margin 75-25 over John McKay
2006 margin 80-20
2004 margin 64-35
Obama margin 32-67
Bush margin 2004 68-31
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 64th poorest (median income = $33K); 21st most Republican for POTUS. I am not sure, but I think this is the largest difference between Obama vote (32%) and a Democrat in the House (75%). At minimum, 43% of people voted for McCain and Taylor.
Assessment Safe.
District: MO-01
Location St Louismap
Cook PVI D + 27
Representative William Lacy Clay
VoteView 39.5
First elected 2000
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 73-25
2004 margin 75-23
Obama margin 80-20
Bush margin 2004 75-25
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 24th most Black (49.7%), 27th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: MO-02
Location A ring around St. Louis, including a bit of the city map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Todd Akin (R)
VoteView 412
First elected 2000
2008 margin 62-35 over Bill Haas
2006 margin 61-37
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 35th wealthiest (median income = $61K), 8 least in poverty (3.6%), 38th most White (93.2%)
Assessment Long shot
District: MO-03
Location Southern part of St. Louis, and southern suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Russ Carnahan (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 153
First elected 2004
2008 margin 66-30 over Chris Sander
2006 margin 66-32
2004 margin 53-45
Obama margin 60-39
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MO-04
Location Western MO, bordering KS, including Jefferson City map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Ike Skelton (D)
VoteView 208
First elected 1976
2008 margin 66-34 over Jeff Parnell
2006 margin 68-29
2004 margin 66-32
Obama margin 38-60
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 17th most rural (60.1%), 85th poorest (median income = $35K), 37th most veterans (16.1%), 62nd most Republican
Assessment Safe
District: MO-05
Location Kansas City and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 10
Representative Emmanuel Cleaver (D)
VoteView 67
First elected 2004
2008 margin 64-36 over Jacob Turk
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 55-42
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 40-60
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MO-06
Location Northwestern MO, bordering IA, NE, and KS map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Sam Graves (R)
VoteView 382
First elected 2000
2008 margin 59-37 over Kay Barnes
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 64-35
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Barnes looked like a strong candidate; that she got less than 40% is not a good sign.
District: MO-07
Location map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Roy Blunt (R) Retiring
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 35-63
Bush margin 2004 67-32
Current opponents There are no confirmed Democrats, but several confirmed Republicans running in this strongly R district (see the wiki
Demographics 86th most rural (40.9%), 62nd poorest (meidan income = $33K), 45th most Whites (92.9%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%), 31st most Republican
Assessment This looks like a long shot for any Democrat
District: MO-08
Location Southeastern MO, bordering KY, TN, and AR. map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative JoAnn Emerson (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 265
First elected 1996
2008 margin 71-26 over Joe Allen
2006 margin 72-26
2004 margin 72-27
Obama margin 36-62
Bush margin 2004 36-64
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 16th most rural (60.4%), 12th poorest (meidan income = $28K), 30th most Whites (92.5%), 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 51st most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: MO-09
Location Northeastern MO, bordering IA and IL, including part of Jefferson City map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Blaine Lutekemeyer (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 50-47 over Judy Baker
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 41-59
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 31st most rural (54.2%)
Assessment Not impossible, but if we couldn’t win it as an open seat, it’s going to be tough to win against an incumbent
District: MT-AL
Location Whole state map
Cook PVI R + 7
Representative Denny Rehberg (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 304
First elected 2000
2008 margin 64-32 over John Driscoll
2006 margin 61-36
2004 margin 65-34
Obama margin 47-50
Bush margin 2004 39-59
Current opponents Dennis McDonald and Tyler Gernant
Demographics 68th most rural (46.0%), 65th lowest income (median = $33K), 37th most White (89.5%), 3rd fewest Blacks (0.3%)
Assessment Rehberg is popular, but Obama got 47% here.
I really like it when you talk about all the upcoming house elections. I wanted to point out that the 2004 Bush margin was 37%-62%, not 34%-57%. Good job though.
There’s no way R+20 and similar districts should ever be called “safe.” You never know when irate Republican voters may choose to vote against someone they like, because they’re from the wrong party. Remember when Democrats did that in Rhode Island and Iowa (Senator Lincoln Chafee and Representative Jim Leach)?
Also, re: MN-03, you can’t discount the Independence Party in Minnesota or assume they won’t run again and take a decent number of votes. It doesn’t matter if the Democratic candidate would have won most of those votes, unless there is no Independence Party candidate in the next election to accomplish the same thing again.
As for MN-06, I’ll believe Bachmann is vulnerable if she ever actually loses. Underperforming in a R+7 district and winning by 3 doesn’t necessarily equal “vulnerable” to me. Of course, I hope you and all the other liberal hopers are right, but no way is this a top-tier pickup opportunity, in my opinion; second-tier at best.
Disclaimer: Opinions are like a–h—s, and all that. 🙂 And thanks as always for all the work you put into this. I think your glasses are just a little too rose-colored, that’s all.
Since this is a statewide seat, it is relevant that Democrats now hold both US Senate seats and the Governorship. Still, if Rehberg wants to run, he is likely to win.
If this were an open seat or if Denny runs into scandal or gaffes something good could happen. Conrad Burns killed his political chances (barely) with his very big mouth.