Tag: MT

Previous diares

Summary:

 MN has 8 reps: 5 D, 3 R

 MS has 4 reps: 3 D, 1 R

 MO has 9 reps: 4 D, 5 R

 MT has 1 rep, a Repub.

Possibly vulnerable:

  MN-03 (R) MN-06 (R)

  MO-09 (R) (maybe)  

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: MN-01

Location The southern part of MN, bordering WI, IA, and SD map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative Tim Walz (D)

VoteView 190

First elected 2006

2008 margin  63-33 over Brian Davis

2006 margin  53-37

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 51-47

Bush margin 2004 51-47

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 77th most rural (43.5%), 31st fewest Blacks (1.0%)

Assessment  Safe

District: MN-02

Location Southern suburbs and exurbs of twin cities  map

Cook PVI R + 4

Representative John Kline (R)

VoteView 397

First elected 2002

2008 margin  57-43 over Steve Sarvi

2006 margin  56-40

2004 margin  56-40

Obama margin 48-50

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Current opponents None declared

Demographics  36th highest income (median = $61K), 10th fewest in poverty (3.9%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%)

Assessment  This district is becoming more D, but maybe not quickly enough for 2010.  Plus, Kline has raised 333K already.

District: MN-03

Location Suburbs of the twin cities  map

Cook PVI Even

Representative Erik Paulsen (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  49-41 over Ashwin Madia, remainder to David Dillon (INP), who looks pretty progressive.

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 52-46

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  6th wealthiest (median income = $64K), 5th fewest in poverty (3.5%),  80th fewest Blacks (3.8%)

Assessment  This one looks possible; I think most of the 11% that went to Dillon would go Democratic.  

District: MN-04

Location  St. Paul and suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 13

Representative Betty McCollum (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 77

First elected 2000

2008 margin  69-31 over Ed Matthews

2006 margin  70-30

2004 margin 57-33

Obama margin 64-32

Bush margin 2004 34-57

Current opponents Ed Matthews

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MN-05

Location map

Cook PVI D + 23

Representative Keith Ellison (D)

VoteView 11

First elected 2006

2008 margin  71-22 over Barb White

2006 margin  56-21

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 74-24

Bush margin 2004 71-28

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  40th most Democratic

Assessment  Safe

District: MN-06

Location Mostly in central MN, but extending east and south to the WI border  map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Michelle Bachmann (R)

VoteView 399

First elected 2006

2008 margin  46-43 over El Tinklenberg, remainder to Bob Anderson.  It’s hard to say who Anderson hurt – he says he’s a ‘conservative alternative to Bachmann’. Bachmann did run more behind McCain (7 points) than El behind Obama (2 points).

2006 margin  50-42 over John Binkowski

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 45-53

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents El Tinklenburg and Maureen Reed (site being worked on)

Demographics  53rd highest income (median = $57K), 18th fewest in poverty (4/7%), 18th most Whites (94.9%), 28th fewest Blacks (0.9%), 42nd fewest Latinos (1.3%)

Assessment  Bachmann is vulnerable.  She’s insane.  But she’s already raised $600K.  On the other hand, Reed has raised $230K.  For a challenger, that’s impressive.  I have no figures for Tinklenburg.

District: MN-07

Location  Western MN, bordering SD and ND and Canada  map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Collin Peterson (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 214

First elected 1990

2008 margin  72-28 over Glenn Menzie

2006 margin  70-26

2004 margin 66-34

Obama margin 47-50

Bush margin 2004 43-55

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  6th most rural (66%), 22nd most Whites (93.1%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment  Safe.  OK, Peterson is a very conservative Democrat; still, he wins easily in a Republican district, without using up much money.

District: MN-08

Location map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative James Oberstar (D)

VoteView 107

First elected 1974

2008 margin  68-32 over Michael Cummins

2006 margin  64-34

2004 margin 65-32

Obama margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004  46-53

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   12th most rural (62.6%), 34th most veterans (16.2%), 20th most Whites (94.6%), 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 11th fewest Latinos (0.8%)

Assessment  Safe

District: MS-01

Location Northeastern MS, bordering TN and AL, including Tupelo  map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Travis Childers (D)

VoteView 239

First elected 2007 (replaced Wicker)

2008 margin  54-44

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 37-62

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  15th most rural (61.5%), 5th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlack (1.1%), 58th lowest income (median = $33K)

Assessment  Safe.  Childers, one of the most conervative Democrats in the House, wins here.  Easily.  

District: MS-02

Location Western MS, bordering AR and LA  map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Bennie Thompson (D)

VoteView 45

First elected 1993

2008 margin  69-31 over Richard Cook

2006 margin  64-36

2004 margin  58-41

Obama margin 66-33

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics    8th poorest (median income = $27K), 10th most in poverty (27.3%), 3rd most Blacks (63.2%, only IL01 and LA02 are higher), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment  Safe.  

District: MS-03

Location Runs SW to NE, from Natchez, in the southwest, to Starkville, in the northeast.  Borders both LA and AL map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative Gregg Harper (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  63-37 over Joel Gill

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 38-61

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Current opponents Joel Gill

Demographics  18th most rural (59.7%), 51st poorest (median income = $32K), 39th most Black (33.1%), 33rd least Latino (1.2%

Assessment  Long shot.

District: MS-04

Location Southeastern MS, bordering AL, LA, and the Gulf  map

Cook PVI R + 20

Representative Gene Taylor (D)

VoteView 219

First elected 1989

2008 margin  75-25 over John McKay

2006 margin  80-20

2004 margin 64-35

Obama margin 32-67

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics    64th poorest (median income = $33K); 21st most Republican for POTUS.  I am not sure, but I think this is the largest difference between Obama vote (32%) and a Democrat in the House (75%).  At minimum, 43% of people voted for McCain and Taylor.

Assessment  Safe.

District: MO-01

Location St Louismap

Cook PVI D + 27

Representative William Lacy Clay

VoteView 39.5

First elected 2000

2008 margin  Unopposed

2006 margin  73-25

2004 margin 75-23

Obama margin 80-20

Bush margin 2004 75-25

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   24th most Black (49.7%), 27th most Democratic

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-02

Location  A ring around St. Louis, including a bit of the city map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Todd Akin (R)

VoteView 412

First elected 2000

2008 margin  62-35 over Bill Haas

2006 margin  61-37

2004 margin 65-35

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  35th wealthiest (median income = $61K), 8 least in poverty (3.6%), 38th most White (93.2%)

Assessment  Long shot

District: MO-03

Location  Southern part of St. Louis, and southern suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Russ Carnahan (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 153

First elected 2004

2008 margin  66-30 over Chris Sander

2006 margin  66-32

2004 margin  53-45

Obama margin 60-39

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-04

Location Western MO, bordering KS, including Jefferson City  map

Cook PVI R + 14

Representative Ike Skelton (D)

VoteView 208

First elected 1976

2008 margin  66-34 over Jeff Parnell

2006 margin  68-29

2004 margin  66-32

Obama margin 38-60

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   17th most rural (60.1%), 85th poorest (median income = $35K), 37th most veterans (16.1%), 62nd most Republican

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-05

Location Kansas City and suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Emmanuel Cleaver (D)

VoteView 67

First elected 2004

2008 margin  64-36 over Jacob Turk

2006 margin  64-32

2004 margin  55-42

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 40-60

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-06

Location  Northwestern MO, bordering IA, NE, and KS map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Sam Graves (R)

VoteView 382

First elected 2000

2008 margin  59-37 over Kay Barnes

2006 margin  62-36

2004 margin  64-35

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Barnes looked like a strong candidate; that she got less than 40% is not a good sign.

District: MO-07

Location map

Cook PVI R + 17

Representative Roy Blunt (R) Retiring

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin  NA

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 35-63

Bush margin 2004 67-32

Current opponents There are no confirmed Democrats, but several confirmed Republicans running in this strongly R district (see the wiki

Demographics   86th most rural (40.9%), 62nd poorest (meidan income = $33K), 45th most Whites (92.9%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%), 31st most Republican

Assessment  This looks like a long shot for any Democrat

District: MO-08

Location   Southeastern MO, bordering KY, TN, and AR.  map

Cook PVI R + 15

Representative JoAnn Emerson (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 265

First elected 1996

2008 margin  71-26 over Joe Allen

2006 margin  72-26

2004 margin  72-27

Obama margin 36-62

Bush margin 2004 36-64

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   16th most rural (60.4%), 12th poorest (meidan income = $28K), 30th most Whites (92.5%), 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 51st most Republican

Assessment  Long shot

District: MO-09

Location Northeastern MO, bordering IA and IL, including part of Jefferson City map

Cook PVI R + 9

Representative Blaine Lutekemeyer (R)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  50-47 over Judy Baker

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin  NA

Obama margin 44-55

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics    31st most rural (54.2%)

Assessment  Not impossible, but if we couldn’t win it as an open seat, it’s going to be tough to win against an incumbent

District: MT-AL

Location Whole state map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Denny Rehberg (R) Not confirmed

VoteView 304

First elected 2000

2008 margin  64-32 over John Driscoll

2006 margin  61-36

2004 margin  65-34

Obama margin 47-50

Bush margin 2004 39-59

Current opponents Dennis McDonald and Tyler Gernant

Demographics    68th most rural (46.0%), 65th lowest income (median = $33K), 37th most White (89.5%), 3rd fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment  Rehberg is popular, but Obama got 47% here.  

Continuing through the alphabet….

Mississippi has 4 representatives: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans

The filing deadline was Jan 11, and the primary was on March 11

Missouri has 9 representatives: 5 Republicans and 4 Democrats

Filing deadline is March 25, primary is Aug 5

Montana has one representative, a Republican

Filing deadline is March 20, primary is June 3

District: MS-01

Location Northeastern MS, bordering TN and AL, including Tupelo

Representative None (Wicker became Senator), election on April 22

First elected  

2006 margin

2004 margin

Bush margin 2004 62-37

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Democrats: Travis Childers

Demographics 15th most rural (61.5%), 5th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlack (1.1%), 58th lowest income (median = $33K)

Assessment Long shot

District: MS-02

Location Western MS, bordering AR and LA

Representative Bennie Thompson (D)

First elected  1993

2006 margin 64-36

2004 margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents In 2006, Yvonne Brown raised $100K to Thompson’s $1.4 million; in 2004, Clinton LeSeuer raised $300K to Thompson’s $700K

Current opponents Richard Cook (Thompson is also being primaried)

Demographics 8th poorest (median income = $27K), 10th most in poverty (27.3%), 3rd most Blacks (63.2$, only IL01 and LA02 are higher), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)

Assessment Safe

District: MS-03

Location Runs SW to NE, from Natchez, in the southwest, ot Starkville, in the northeast.  Borders both LA and AL

Representative Chip Pickering (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 78% against minor parties

2004 margin 80% against minor parties

Bush margin 2004 65-34

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents Randy Eads

Demographics  18th most rural (59.7%), 51st poorest (median income = $32K), 39th most Black (33.1%), 33rd least Latino (1.2%), 51st most Republican

Assessment long shot

District: MS-04

Location Southeastern MS, bordering AL, LA, and the Gulf

Representative Gene Taylor (D)

First elected  1989

2006 margin 80-20

2004 margin 64-35

Bush margin 2004 68-31

Notes on opponents In 2004, Michael Lott raised $90K to Taylor’s $400K

Current opponents John McCay

Demographics 64th poorest (median income = $33K), 34th most Republican per Cook PVI

Assessment Safe.  OK, Taylor is a very conservative Democrat.  But he wins easily in a district that Bush took by more than 30 points in 04 and 08

District: MO-01

Location St. Louis

Representative William Lacy Clay (D)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 73-25

2004 margin 75-23

Bush margin 2004 25-75

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 24th most Black (49.7%), 31st most Democratic

Assessment safe

District: MO-02

Location A ring around St. Louis, including a bit of the city

Representative Todd Akin (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 61-37

2004 margin 65-35

Bush margin 2004 60-40

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Mike Garman

Demographics 35th wealthiest (median income = $61K), 8 least in poverty (3.6%), 38th most White (93.2%)

Assessment Long shot

District: MO-03

Location Southern part of St. Louis, and southern suburbs

Representative Russ Carnahan (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 66-32

2004 margin 53-45

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents  In 2004, this was an open seat (formerly occupied by Gephardt), and Carnahan beat Bill Federer with each spending about $1.3 million.  In 2006, his opponent raised little

Current opponents David Bertelson, Chris Sander

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  Safe

District: MO-04

Location Western MO, bordering KS, including Jefferson City

Representative Ike Skelton

First elected   1976

2006 margin 68-29

2004 margin 66-32

Bush margin 2004 64-35

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents  None declared

Demographics 17th most rural (60.1%), 85th poorest (median income = $35K), 37th most veterans (16.1%), 87th most Republican

Assessment safe

District: MO-05

Location Kansas City and suburbs

Representative  Emanuel Cleaver (D)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 64-32

2004 margin 55-42

Bush margin 2004 40-59

Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat, and Cleaver was out-spent $3.2 million to $1.5 million by Joanne Patterson.  In 2006, his opponent raised little money

Current opponents Jacob Turk

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: MO-06

Location Northwestern MO, bordering IA, NE, and KS

Representative Sam Graves (R)

First elected  2000

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 64-35

Bush margin 2004 57-42

Notes on opponents In 2004, Charlie Broomfield spent $900K to Graves’ $1.7 million.  In 2006, Sara Jo Shettles spent $130K to Graves’ $1.2 million

Current opponents Kay Barnes

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable.  Barnes is Mayor of Kansas City, and has raised $656K already.   superribbie ranks this the 42nd most vul. Republican seat

District: MO-07

Location Southwestern MO, bordering KS, OK, and AR, including Joplin

Representative Roy Blunt (R)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 67-30

2004 margin 70-28

Bush margin 2004 67-32

Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Newberry raised $200K to Blount’s $3.5 million.  In 2006, his opponent raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 86th most rural (40.9%), 62nd poorest (meidan income = $33K), 45th most Whites (92.9%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%)

Assessment long shot

District: MO-08

Location Southeastern MO, bordering KY, TN, and AR.

Representative Jo Ann Emerson (R)

First elected 1996

2006 margin 72-26

2004 margin 72-27

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Joe Allen (no apparent site)

Demographics 16th most rural (60.4%), 12th poorest (meidan income = $28K), 30th most Whites (92.5%), 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 87th most Republican

Assessment long shot

District: MO-09

Location Northeastern MO, bordering IA and IL, including part of Jefferson City

Representative Kenny Hulshof (R) retiring

First elected  1996

2006 margin 61-36

2004 margin 65-34

Bush margin 2004 59-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, Duane Burghard raised $250K to Hulshof’s $1.3 million; in 2004, Linda Jacobsen raised $130K to his $1 million

Current opponents Democrats:

Steve Gaw ,

Duane Burghard ,

and

Judy Baker

Demographics 31st most rural (54.2%),

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable; superribbie (link above) ranks this the 25th most vulnerable Republican seat; the Republican contender appears to have raised no money.  

District: MT-AL

Location Entire state

Representative Denny Rehberg (R)*possibly retiring to run for Senate*

First elected  2000

2006 margin 59-39

2004 margin 64-33

Bush margin 2004 59-39

Notes on opponents In 2006, Monica Lindeen raised $500K to Rehberg’s $1.1 million; in 2004, Tracy Velazquez raised $120K to Rehberg’s $600 K

Current opponents Jim Hunt

Demographics 68th most rural (46.0%), 65th lowest income (median = $33K), 37th most White (89.5%), 3rd fewest Blacks (0.3%)

Assessment If Rehberg runs for Senate, who knows?