Tag: NJ

Previous diares

Summary:

 NE has 3 reps: all R

 NV has 3 reps: 2 D, 1 R

 NH has 2 reps: both D

 NJ has 13 reps: 8 D, 5 R

 NM has 3 reps: All D

Possibly vulnerable:

 NE-02 (R) (a little)

 NV-03 (D) (a little)

 NH-01 (D) (a little)

 NH-02 (D)

 NJ-03 (D)

 NJ-07 (R)

 NM-02

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: NE-01

Location Eastern NE, except for Omaha.  Borders MO and IA  map

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative Jeff Fortenberry (R)

VoteView 267

First elected 2004

2008 margin  70-30 over Max Yashrin

2006 margin  58-42

2004 margin 54-43

Obama margin 44-54

Bush margin 2004 36-64

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 51st fewest Blacks (1.4%)  

Assessment Long shot

District: NE-02

Location  Omaha and suburbs  map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Lee Terry (R)

VoteView 373

First elected 1998

2008 margin  52-48 over Jim Esch (D)

2006 margin  55-45

2004 margin 61-36

Obama margin 50-49

Bush margin 2004 39-60

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Possible.  NE-02 wen narrowly for Obama, and this is a possible pickup.

District: NE-03

Location The western 3/4 of the state, bordering SD, WY, CO and KS  map

Cook PVI R + 24

Representative Adrian Smith (R)

VoteView 371

First elected 2006

2008 margin  77-23 over Jay Stoddard

2006 margin  55-45

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 30-68

Bush margin 2004 75-24

Current opponents Rebekah Davis (this website needs help!)

Demographics  33rd most rural (53.9%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 9th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NV-01

Location   Las Vegas  map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Shelley Berkley Not confirmed

VoteView 180

First elected 1998

2008 margin  68-28 over Kenneth Wegner

2006 margin  65-31

2004 margin  66-31

Obama margin 64-34

Bush margin 2004 42-57

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  55th most Latinos (28.2%)

Assessment Safe

District: NV-02

Location Almost the whole state, except for Las Vegas and suburbs, bordering CA, OR, ID, UT, and AZ  map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Dean Heller (R)

VoteView 384

First elected 2006

2008 margin  52-41 over Jill Derby (remainder split)

2006 margin  50-45

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-49

Bush margin 2004 57-41

Current opponents There’s  a primary, and then Paul Reeves (I couldn’t find a website, but he’s on Facebook) is running and others considering.

Demographics   21st most veterans (17.1%)

Assessment Possible.  The 2008 race wasn’t exactly decisive.

District: NV-03

Location A Y shaped district of Las Vegas suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Dina Titus (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin   47-42 over Jon Porter

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 55-43

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot are considering.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  A little vulnerable.  Winning with under 50% of the vote is less than superlative.

District: NH-01

Location The eastern part of NH, bordering ME  map

Cook PVI Even

Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D)

VoteView 134

First elected 2006

2008 margin  52-46 over Jeb Bradley

2006 margin  51-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents At least two Republicans: Frank Guinta and Robert Bestani.

Demographics  55th fewest in poverty (6.7%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 24th fewest Blacks (0.7%)

Assessment Vulnerable, but perhaps less so than in 2008. Shea-Porter, never a huge fund raiser, has got $180K COH.

District: NH-02

Location The western part of NH, bordering Canada, VT, and MA  map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Paul Hodes (D) Retiring to run for Senate

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin  NA

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Current opponents A whole bunch of people considering (see the Wiki).  Confirmed Democrats include: Ann McLane Kuster (more developed site is in the works) and Mark Fernald.  Both websites paint fairly progressive portraits.

Demographics  57th most rural (48.3%), 50th fewest in poverty (6.4%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%).

Assessment An open seat is never safe.

District: NJ-01

Location A T shaped district in southwestern NJ, bordering PA and a tiny bit of DE map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Robert Andrews (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 112.5

First elected 1990

2008 margin  72-26 over Dale Glading

2006 margin  Unopposed

2004 margin 65-33

Obama margin 65-34

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-02

Location Southernmost NJ, on the Delaware Bay and Atlantic  map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Frank LoBiondo (R)

VoteView 244

First elected 1994

2008 margin  59-39 over David Kurkowksi.

2006 margin  62-36

2004 margin 65-33

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot.  Although this is an increasingly D district, LoBiondo seems popular.

District: NJ-03

Location  The southernmost of several CDs that stretch east-west across NJ, this one from the Atlantic to PA.  map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative John Adler (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 52-48 over Chris Myers

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 52-47

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 20th fewest in poverty (5.1%)

Assessment Vulnerable, Adler is a freshman in a swing district

District: NJ-04

Location Another east west strip, more or less in the middle of the state, including Trenton.  Bordering PA and the Atlantic  map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Christopher Smith (R)

VoteView 243

First elected 1980

2008 margin  66-32 over Josh Zeitz

2006 margin  66-33

2004 margin  67-32

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  63rd highest income (median = $54K)

Assessment Long shot

District: Northernmost NJ, bordering PA and NY, including NYC suburbs  NJ-05

Location map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Scott Garrett (R)

VoteView 415

First elected 2002

2008 margin  56-42 over Dennis Shulman

2006 margin 55-44

2004 margin 58-41

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 6th highest income (median = $73K), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)

Assessment It would be so nice to get rid of this troglodyte.

District: NJ-06

Location A strange, thready district, running from a NYC suburb (Plainfield) south and east to Long Beach and then south to Asbury Park  map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Frank Pallone (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 35.5

First elected 1988

2008 margin  67-32 over Robert McLeod

2006 margin  69-30

2004 margin  67-31

Obama margin 60-38

Bush margin 2004 43-57

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-07

Location Another strange shape, running east west, but shaped like the Greek letter . map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative Leonard Lance (R)

VoteView 252

First elected 2008

2008 margin  51-42 over Linda Stender

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 50-49

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 4th wealthiest (median income = $75K)

Assessment Vulnerable.

District: NJ-08

Location More NYC suburbs, including Wayne, Patterson, and West Orange  map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Bill Pascrell

VoteView 67

First elected 1996

2008 margin  71-28 over Ron Stratten

2006 margin  71-28

2004 margin 69-29

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 41st fewest veterans 8.3%)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-09

Location Close NYC suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative Steven Rothman (D)

VoteView 102.5

First elected 1996

2008 margin  68-32 over Vincent Micco

2006 margin  71-28

2004 margin  68-32

Obama margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents There’s a Democratic primary

Demographics 48th fewest veterans (8.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-10

Location Newark, and some NYC suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 33

Representative Donald Payne (D)

VoteView 17

First elected 1988

2008 margin  Unopposed

2006 margin  Unopposed

2004 margin  No major party opposition

Obama margin 87-13

Bush margin 2004 82-18

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 25th fewest Whites (21.4%), 16th most Blacks (56.4%), 15th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-11

Location Central northern NJ, including Dover  map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Rodney Freylingheusen (R)

VoteView 276

First elected 1994

2008 margin  62-37 over Tom Wyka

2006 margin  62-37

2004 margin  68-31

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 2nd highest income (median = $79K)

Assessment Long shot

District: NJ-12

Location   Another east west strip, from north of Trenton (on the PA border) to NYC suburbs in the east, and almost to the Atlantic map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Rush Holt (D)

VoteView 38

First elected 1998

2008 margin  63-36 over Alan Bateman

2006 margin  66-34

2004 margin 59-40

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 46-55

Current opponents There’s a primary, and then Mike Halfacre

Demographics 15th highest median income ($70K)

Assessment Save

District: NJ-13

Location Yet another strange shaped district, this one runs north-south along the Hudson River and the Atlantic, with a gap  map

Cook PVI D + 21

Representative Albio Sires (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 112.5

First elected 2006 (special election)

2008 margin  75-22 over Joseph Turula

2006 margin  78-19

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 75-25

Bush margin 2004 31-69

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 12th fewest veterans (5.4%), 51st fewest Whites (32.3%), 26th most Latinos (47.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NM-01

Location Albuquerque and suburbs, and some desert  map

Cook PVI 275

Representative Martin Heinrich (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  55-45 over Darren White

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 60-39

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents Jon Barela

Demographics  86th fewest Whites (48.5%),  92nd fewest Blacks (2.3%), 32nd most Latinos (42.6%)

Assessment Not completely safe, but should be OK.  Heinrich has raised an impressive $600K to Barela’s $73K

District: NM-02

Location The southern half of NM, bordering AZ, TX, and Mexico map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Harry Teague (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  56-44 over Edward Tinsley

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-50

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents Steve Pearce

Demographics   20th lowest income (median = $29K), 73rd fewest Whites (44.3%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 29th most Latinos (47.3%)

Assessment A district that went for McCain can’t be considered safe for a freshman D.  But, OTOH, he did win in 2008.  Teague has raised $620 K already, to Pearce’s $63K.

District: NM-03

Location Northern half of NM, including Santa Fe, bordering AZ, CO, OK, and TX, and touching corners with UT. map

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Ben Ray Lujan (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  57-31 over Daniel East

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 46-54

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 68th fewest Whites (41.4%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 38th most Latinos (36.3%), 14th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 18.9% Native American)

Assessment Probably safe

Continuing through the alphabet

NJ has 13 representatives: 7 Democrats and 6 Republicans

Filing deadline April 7, primary June 3

NM has 3 representatives: 2 Republicans and 1 Democrat

Filing deadline was Feb 12, primary is June 3

District: NJ-01

Location A T shaped district in southwestern NJ, bordering PA and a tiny bit of DE

Representative Robert Andrews (D) may retire to run for senate

First elected 1990

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 75-25

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Notes on opponents In 2004, Daniel Hutchison raised $200K to Andrews $800K

Current opponents No declared Republicans

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe for Democrats

District: NJ-02

Location Southernmost NJ, on the Delaware Bay and Atlantic

Representative Frank LoBiondo (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 65-33

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: NJ-03

Location The southernmost of several CDs that stretch east-west across NJ, this one from the Atlantic to PA.

Representative Jim Saxton (R) retiring

First elected  1984

2006 margin 58-41

2004 margin 63-35

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Rich Sexton raised $161K to Saxton’s $1.3 million

Current opponents John Adler

Demographics 20th fewest in poverty (5.1%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  With Saxton out, this swing district is prime pickup territory.  It’s on the DCCC list , and superribbie ranks it the most vulnerable seat.

District: NJ-04

Location Another east west strip, more or less in the middle of the state, including Trenton.  Bordering PA and the Atlantic

Representative Christopher Smith (R)

First elected  1980

2006 margin 66-33

2004 margin 67-32

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Josh Zeitz

Demographics 63rd highest income (median = $54K)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable superribbie ranks this 77 of all Republican seats

District: NJ-05

Location Northernmost NJ, bordering PA and NY, including NYC suburbs

Representative Scott Garrett (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 55-44

2004 margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Each raised about $500K, Garrett about $1 million in each

Current opponents Dennis Shulman and

Camille Abate

Demographics 6th highest income (median = $73K), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. superribbie ranks this 55th of all Republican seats.  Garrett’s winning percentage is shrinking, he did no better than Bush in 04, and that won’t be enough in ’08.

District: NJ-06

Location A strange, thready district, running from a NYC suburb (Plainfield) south and east to Long Beach and then south to Asbury Park

Representative Frank Pallone (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 69-30

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 43-57

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-07

Location Another strange shape, running east west, but shaped like the Greek letter ?.

Representative Michael Ferguson (R) retiring

First elected  2000

2006 margin 49-48

2004 margin 57-42

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, Linda Stender raised $1.9 million to Ferguson’s $3 million; in 2004, Steve Brozak raised $800K to Ferguson’s $2.8 million

Current opponents Linda Stender is running again, as is Upendra Chivakula and a few Republicans

Demographics 4th wealthiest (median income = $75K)

Assessment Vulnerable. superribbie ranks this 8th of all Republican seats, and it’s on the DCCC list .  This is a competitive race near NYC, so all you NYC kossacks with time on your hands… this is a spot (but don’t ignore our own Vito Fosella, NY-13). Prime pickup material – Stender almost beat a fairly moderate Republican incumbent.  

District: NJ-08

Location More NYC suburbs, including Wayne, Patterson, and West Orange

Representative Bill Pascrell (D)

First elected   1996

2006 margin 71-28

2004 margin 69-29

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jose Sandoval raised $200K to Pascrell’s $1 million; in 2004, George Aijan raised $100K to Pascrell’s $900K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 41st fewest veterans 8.3%)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-09

Location Close NYC suburbs

Representative Steve Rothman (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 71-28

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 48th fewest veterans (8.6%)

Assessment safe

District: NJ-10

Location Newark, and some NYC suburbs

Representative Donald Payne (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin No major party opposition

Bush margin 2004 18-82

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 25th fewest Whites (56.4%), 16th most Blacks (21.4%), 15th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-11

Location Central northern NJ, including Dover

Representative Rodney Freylinghuysen (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 62-37

2004 margin 68-31

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Tom Wyka , who lost in 2006

Demographics 2nd highest income (median = $79K)

Assessment Long shot

District: NJ-12

Location Another east west strip, from north of Trenton (on the PA border) to NYC suburbs in the east, and almost to the Atlantic

Representative Rush Holt (D)

First elected 1998

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004 46-54

Notes on opponents In 2004, Bill Spadea raised $350K to Holt’s $1.6 million.  In 2006, Joseph Sinagra raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 15th highest median income ($70K)

Assessment Almost totally safe

District: NJ-13

Location Yet another strange shaped district, this one runs north-south along the Hudson River and the Atlantic, with a gap

Representative Albio Sires (D)

First elected  2006 (special election to replace Menendez, who became Senator)

2006 margin 78-19 (regular election)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 31-69

Notes on opponents None raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 12th fewest veterans (5.4%), 51st fewest Whites (32.3%), 26th most Latinos (47.6%), 27th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NM-01

Location Albuquerque and suburbs, and some desert

Representative Heather Wilson (R) probably retiring to run for Senate

First elected  1998

2006 margin 861 votes out of 211,000

2004 margin 54-46

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents In 2004, Richard Romero raised $2 million to Wilson’s $3.4 million; in 2006, Patricia Madrid raised $3.3 million to Wilson’s $5 million

Current opponents Martin Heinrich ; Rebecca Vigil-Giron ; Jessica Wolfe ; Robert Pidcock are the Democrats

Demographics 86th fewest Whites (48.5%),  92nd fewest Blacks (2.3%), 32nd most Latinos (42.6%)

Assessment Very vulnerable. superribbie  ranks it the 4th most vulnerable Republican seat, and it’s on the DCCC list .

District: NM-02

Location The southern half of NM, bordering AZ, TX, and Mexico

Representative Steve Pearce (R) probably retiring to run for Senate

First elected  2002

2006 margin 59-40

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In 2004, Gary King raised $1.1 million to Pearce’s $2 million; in 2006, Albert Kissling raised $180K to Pearce’s $1.3 million

Current opponents Bill McCamley who wrote on Daily Kos

Albert Kissling , the 2006 candidate, and  

Frank McKinnon are the Democrats

Demographics 20th lowest income (median = $29K), 73rd fewest Whites (44.3%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 29th most Latinos (47.3%)

Assessment Vulnerable, superribbie ranks it the 28th most vulnerable Republican seat, and it’s on the DCCC list

District: NM-03

Location Northern half of NM, including Santa Fe, bordering AZ, CO, OK, and TX, and touching corners with UT.

Representative Tom Udall (D) retiring to run for Senate

First elected  1998

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Don Wiviott

Benny Shendo

Harry Montoya

Ben Lujan

and

Rudy Martin

are the Democrats

Demographics 68th fewest Whites (41.4%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 38th most Latinos (36.3%), 14th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 18.9% Native American)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable. superribbie ranks it the 30th most vulnerable Democratic seat  

(I figured this was big enough news to promote, and, since David Kowalski laid out the details, I saw no point in writing a separate post that repeated the same information. – promoted by The Caped Composer)

Anne Estabrook, a multi-millionaire developer and the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for the US Senate in New Jersey abruptly dropped out on Tuesday morning after suffering a mini stroke on Monday.  Estabrook had already contributed $1.6 million towards the Senate race and was considered the heavy favorite for the Republican nomination.

Her departure leaves two active Republican candidates, inflammatory state senator Joe Pennachio and college professor/gadfly Murray Sabin (Sabrin?).  There may be pressure from the state’s GOP establishment to come up with a name opponent at this point.  Just my own speculation but in relative order candidates might include former Governor Christie Todd Whittman, the state’s US Attorney Chris Christie (good to see him sent packing), retiring US Rep Mike Ferguson, former Senate candidate Tom Keane, Jr. or even one of the south Jersey Reps like Chris Smith or Frank LoBiondo.

Christie has gone from prosecuting all politicians to picking only on Democrats to save his job from Karl Rove’s threatened sacking.  I’d love to see Lautenberg puncture his pompousity like a pus-filled pinata.  If Jerseyans have poor opinions of their politicians, Chrisitie is a leading contributor. (So are some of the talk radio stations in the state and the vicious tone of the political blog at the Star Ledger.  Republicans have no answers but in this state they are nasty, personal, and bullying.)

The 2006 midterm elections took a big bite out of Northeast Republicans.  They went from contributing 35 seats to the majority party to providing just 24 seats to the minority.  Many survived by the skin of their teeth and others were not targeted in districts with a Democratic lean or a small Republican lean.  So how have the suruvivors fared?  I have compared the most recent fund raising report with the year end totals from 2005 (the same spot in the 2006 cycle).  Both a dummary report and a more detailed explaination follow.

The 24 Republicans as a group have 22.6% less cash on hand than 2 years ago ($12,702,583 vs. $16,403,287).  The average GOP member from this group has a balance of $529,274 compared to $683,470 two years ago.  Four members from this group have announced their retirement.  Two of those four have a slightly higher balance but two have much lower balances.  In addition, Tom Reynolds had a balance of $2.3 million as head of the NRCC;  he’s at $862 K now.  Still, the numbers are lower, even after adjustments.

Individual results follow below the fold:

CT  Chris Shays, CT 4

Shays is the only one of 3 CT Republicans to survive the last election.  In fact, the moderate congressman from the NYC suburbs is the last Republican House member from New England.  Shays has run a bunch of expensive and exhausting but ultimately successful re-electioin campaigns.  This time around, he’s facing Jim Himes and his fund raising is lagging.  At $797,413, Shays is down $95,000 from two years ago.  Of course, Joe Lieberman will not be campaigning for him either.

NY  Peter King, NY-3

Last cycle, Democrats hoped to entice a name opponent to take on King but failed.  Dave Mejias still managed to take a big bite out of King’s sizeable stash of cash.  Two years ago, King was a committee chairman and a “millionaire” (cash on hand of $1,058,043).  Now the chair is gone and cash is down more than 40% to $604,240.  Peter King is considerably weakened.

NY  Vito Fossella, NY-13

Fossella has come back from the dead, raising $304,000 to bring his cash up from $50,000 to $250,000 in the last quarter of 2007.  That said, Fossella is greatly weaker than two years ago.  Then, he had $572,952; now it’s $250,501.  A good candidate can take him out.  A medium candidate might but would probably drain him to the breaking point.  

NY  John McHugh,  NY-23

McHugh has been rumored to be a possible retiree.  Maybe one reason is his fund raising.  The veteran incumbent has uist $203,402 a drop of nearly 50% from two years ago.  Hmm.

NY  James Walsh,  NY-25

Walsh had a very tight battle against Dan Maffei in 2006 and this looked like a re-match.  Except that Walsh decided to retire.  Walsh had managed to keep pace with last cycle ($511,611 to $508,704 in 2005).  Maffei will have a huge edge over any fill-in.

NY  Tom Reynolds, NY-26

Reynolds was head of the NRCC last cycle and actually did a good job in a thankless assignment.  Compare his results to Liddy Dole (dollars, won-lost).  Reynolds managed to save more seats than were lost. Dole lost everything but Kentucky and had to get massive help from the RNC.  Still, Reynolds was raising national bucks two years ago and is not, now.  That means that Jon Powers may have a good shot in what was a 52-48 district last cycle.  $862,809 vs. $2,351,883 in 2006.

NY  Randy Kuhl, NY-29

Kuhl is a two termer who is struggling in a decent district for NYS Republicans.  It shows in the fund-raising.  Kuhl has $326,513 vs. $389,128 in 2005.  Shot gun Randy is vulnerable to Eric Massa.  Rumor had Randy expecting to lose his last general election.  Maybe this is the time.

NJ  Frank LoBiondo,  NJ-2

The district leans Democratic but LoBiondo had the support of local labor unions against a weak local Democrat.  That may not be the case as Jeff Van Drew, a “hot” state senator, is considering a run.  Lo Biondo has a nice stash ($1,391,321) but less than two years ago ($1,628,568).  It’s doable.  Too bad he wasn’t drained a bit more.

NJ  Jim Saxton,  NJ-3

Saxton is also running in a tough district.  Only he decided to hang it up.  Saxton’s treasure chest of $1,079,955 will (at best for the GOP) be spread out a bit.  That’s down from a hefty $1,434,892 but Jim was still a million dollar man.  Looking very good here as the Democrats have their preferred candidate.

NJ  Chris Smith,  NJ-4

Smith is up but still vulnerable.  He’s got a tough district and just $401,066 in the bank.  And yes, last quarter he was fund raising.  Smith was at just $225,195 last cycle.

NJ  Scott Garrett,  NJ-5

Garrett was first elected with 61% theen fell to 58% and 55% last cycle. He is way out of touch with his moderate district and would fit in with the deep south.  Any other Republican would breeze here.  Garrett?  Maybe not.  So, he has $352,001 this cycle vs. $291,452.  Last time around, reluctance to fund a challenger who had a primary badly hurt Paul Aronsohn who had to overcome Camille Abate.  This time around blind rabbi Ben Shulman also is hamstrung by the presence of Abate.  These “rules” are keeping the winger Garrett alive.  A little flexibility, guys?  (or drop out Camille).

NJ  Rodney Frelinghuysen,  NJ-11

Frelinghuysen’s family held a NJ House seat in the 1700s.  And the 1800s.  And the 1900s,  And the 2000s.  Still, in a district that mainly covers Morris County, Rodney has less cash to play with.  $551,141 vs. $751,195.  Rodney has tended to spread excess cash in $2,000 donations to candidates around the country.  This gives him far less clout than by using the NRCC but Rodney does it.  Maybe he’ll have less to spend this time.  Maybe Tom Wyka will gain a few points in a very slowly blue-ing district (i live there and it’s a long climb).

PA  Phil English,  PA-3

English represents northwest PA.  It is a district where Bush got 54% and English got 53% in 2006 against a lackluster opponent.  English has significantly bolstered his cash this time around as he tries to hold on against the tide.  He’s got $537,340 vs. $323,253 in 2005.  English is a massive guy and rumors do swirl of personal scandal. So this one is not perfectly safe.

PA  John Peterson, PA-5

Peterson is not a massive fundraiser.  He’s retired leaving a modest $117,457 in the kitty.

That’s slightly more than the 2005 sum of $114,865.

PA  Jim Gerlach,  PA-6

Gerlach is off two tight races but seems to be running out of gas.  Or cash.  Without a marquis opponent, he’s got just $500,238 vs. $1,074,827.  Are his days in the House numbered?

PA  Bill Shuster,  PA-9

Shuster is referred to as Bud Lite, because he is the son (and legacy) of ex-Congressman Bud Shuster.  The cash is low ($188,177)but more than last cycle ($138,699).  Time to give the pipsqueak a run?  (one of the great political nicknames was given to Thomas P. O’Neil III, Tip’s son: “tipsqueak”, he aged into the nose, too).

PA  Charles Dent,  PA-15

Dent nearly ran unopposed but a candidate who needed a write-in to make the ballot gave him a hard time in a Democratic lean district.  He’s certainly expecting a harder time this time around but is in the same cash situation.  COH is $535,091 vs. $542,891.  Is this the year the Lehigh Valley goes back blue (it was during the Clinton years).?

PA  Joe Potts,  PA-16

Potts has a decent stash in a friendly district but it is still down from two years ago.  It’s $175,897 vs. $283,335.  Is Joe starting to wind it down?  

PA  Tim Murphy,  PA-18

Murphy has the most cash of any Pennsylvania Republican in the House.  That’s actually a scary thing as it indicates that people like English, Gerlach, and Dent are in trouble.  For stat hounds, Murphy’s balance of $663,484 is down from the $685,083 of two years ago.  Bad news for Gerlach who was way ahead in this race two years ago.

PA  Todd Platts,  PA-19

Platts is the limbo incumbent.  How low can you go?  In Todd’s case it is an anemic $59,032, the lowest figure for any Republican incumbent in the region.  Todd has just $132,025 two years ago so this is nothing new.  he makes lists but so far no waves.

MD   Wayne Gilchrest,  MD-1

The moderate Gilchrest is anti-war and that’s enough to stir up a primary challenge.  It also got Wayne to fund raise a bit in a normally safe district ($424,364 vs. $214,862).  The money is going to the primary where a winger is given a real chance of knocking off the veteran congressman.

MD  Roscoe Bartlett,  MD-6

Bartlett is old (82 I think, and he looks it) and many thought he was headed for retirement.  Not so, as he filed for re-election.  That may come soon, though.  Bartlett has just $276,985 this time, down from $346,618.  It is a safe Republican district.

DE  Mike Castle,  DE At Large

Mike has been rumored for retirement and he’s been rumored as running for the Senate if Joe Biden retires.  The fund raising does not argue retirement.  Mike has the biggest cash on hand balance of any Republican House member in the Northeast and he’s growing it.  It was $1,212,788 and is now $1,527,167.  This is the most Democratic district in the nation represented by a Republican but in the clubby atmosphere of Delaware it “seems” safe.  Oddly, Joe Biden’s son, Beau, would seem like the most likely candidate to unseat the aging and sickly Castle.  Hint, hint.