Tag: NM

The hardest thing for me to remember when making GOP friendly gerrymanders is that a 50% John MctCain district isn’t a toss-up but a likely R district, similar in theory to a 60% Obama District. 5 points more friendly to the gop then the nation as an average implies that, but it is somewhat tricky for me, at least, to wrap my mind around it. However, that was my goal when I started North Carolina: create as many districts that went GOP in 08 as possible. After getting an 11-2 in a state that went for Obama, i figured a 36-0 in Texas was possible. and it was. One district voted for Obama by less than 1000 votes, so I’m going to count it. A 59% Obama district would be okay for most of us here… Without further ado, MAPS!

As always, ask me and i will provide a zoomed in map of whatever area you wish if it isn’t clear from the big one.

http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

El Paso: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 1 (Blue):  Mccain 56%, 56% Hispanic

El Paso and Odessa

District 2 (Green): M 53%, 63% H

Rest of El Paso and some nearby counties

San Antonio and Austin: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 3 (Purple): M 50%, 60% H

South San Antonio

District 4 (Red): M 51%, 50% H

North and West Antonio

District 5 (Yellow):  M 51%, 40% H, 10% Black, 3% Asian

East and North San Antonio

District 6 (Teal): M 50%, 72% H

Laredo and some Border counties, then up to West Texas

District 7 (Gray): M 50%, 66% H

McAllen and Border areas all the way up to Bastrop and Fayette Counties

District 8(Violet) M 51%, 62% H

Brownsville, Mcallen and then up.

District 9(Sky Blue): M 51%, 59%  H

Brownsville, Harlingen, up to Williamson and Milam counties.

District 10 (Pink):  M 50%, 35% H, 16% B, 3% A

Corpus Christi and up

Houston:  http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 11 (Lemon-Lime Green): M 55%,  55% White

South of  Houston

District 12 (Blue-Line Green) :  M 56%, 22% H, 20% H, 11% A

Some of the south-west of Houston and then surroundin areas.

District 13(Light Brown): M 53%, W 52%

Houston and some areas north

District 14(Gold):  M 57%,  W 61%

Houston and some areas north

District 15 (Orange): M 52%, 32% H, 19% B, 4% A

South of Houston, with a bit of the city

District 16(Lime Green):  M 52%, 39% H, 12% B, 4% A

Houston and Areas East

District 17(Navy blue): M 52%, 41% H,  16% B

Houston and Areas North East

District 18 (Golden Yellow):  M 56%, 56% W

North of Houston

District 19 (Puke Green): M 56%, 65% W

Wraps around 11-17

District 20 (Light Pink): M 52%, 59% W

Wraps around Austin and takes part of the city then to Abilene

District 21 (Blood Red): M 54%, 66% W

Parts  of Austin then  going to sparsely populated Northern Texas

District 22 (Poo Brown):  M 51%, 79% W

Austin and North Texas

Dallas-FW: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…

District 23 (Robin’s Egg Blue): M 54%, 57% W

Dallas and some northern suburbs

District 24 (Dark Purple):  M 56%, 59% W

Dallas and Some Eastern areas

District 25 (Rose): M 54%,  59% W

Dallas then to some less populated eastern areas

District 26 (Silver) M 58%,   54% W

Dallas, FW, then to North Texas

District 27 (Sea Green) M 49%, 54% W

Dallas, FW, then to North Texas

District 28 (Pinkish Purple) M 60%, 57% W

Irving, then up to North Texas

District 29 (Gray Green): M 53%, 60% W

Waco and Forth Worth

District 30 (slightly lighter shade of rose then

the one touching it): M 55%, 60% W

Parts of Arlington, Dallas and Fort Worth

District 31 (Tan): M 61%, 71% W

North Fort Worth and Dallas then North

District 32 (Red Orange): M 64%, 79% W

North FW and then northern areas surrounding it

District 33 (I can’t name that many different shades of blue): M 63%, 80% W

North of Dallas

District 34 (Somewhat dark-green): M 69%, 75% W

Wraps around a lot of other districts, filling in a lot of gaps

District 35 (Royal Purple): M 62%, 64% W

Everything Else Part 1

District 36 (Not Flyers Orange, but I’m using it anyways): M 68%, 69% W

Everything Else, Part 2

This is not a perfect 36-0 Map. The last 5-6 districts could bleed some republican voters to some of the more borderline districts. However, in an ok to good year, the republicans win all 36 seats barring an exceptional democratic candidate.

Dave’s seems to have deleted my other maps. I’ll redo them later and either edit this diary or do a new one, depending on what you guys thing.

Previous diares

Summary:

 NE has 3 reps: all R

 NV has 3 reps: 2 D, 1 R

 NH has 2 reps: both D

 NJ has 13 reps: 8 D, 5 R

 NM has 3 reps: All D

Possibly vulnerable:

 NE-02 (R) (a little)

 NV-03 (D) (a little)

 NH-01 (D) (a little)

 NH-02 (D)

 NJ-03 (D)

 NJ-07 (R)

 NM-02

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: NE-01

Location Eastern NE, except for Omaha.  Borders MO and IA  map

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative Jeff Fortenberry (R)

VoteView 267

First elected 2004

2008 margin  70-30 over Max Yashrin

2006 margin  58-42

2004 margin 54-43

Obama margin 44-54

Bush margin 2004 36-64

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 51st fewest Blacks (1.4%)  

Assessment Long shot

District: NE-02

Location  Omaha and suburbs  map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Lee Terry (R)

VoteView 373

First elected 1998

2008 margin  52-48 over Jim Esch (D)

2006 margin  55-45

2004 margin 61-36

Obama margin 50-49

Bush margin 2004 39-60

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Possible.  NE-02 wen narrowly for Obama, and this is a possible pickup.

District: NE-03

Location The western 3/4 of the state, bordering SD, WY, CO and KS  map

Cook PVI R + 24

Representative Adrian Smith (R)

VoteView 371

First elected 2006

2008 margin  77-23 over Jay Stoddard

2006 margin  55-45

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 30-68

Bush margin 2004 75-24

Current opponents Rebekah Davis (this website needs help!)

Demographics  33rd most rural (53.9%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 9th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NV-01

Location   Las Vegas  map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Shelley Berkley Not confirmed

VoteView 180

First elected 1998

2008 margin  68-28 over Kenneth Wegner

2006 margin  65-31

2004 margin  66-31

Obama margin 64-34

Bush margin 2004 42-57

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  55th most Latinos (28.2%)

Assessment Safe

District: NV-02

Location Almost the whole state, except for Las Vegas and suburbs, bordering CA, OR, ID, UT, and AZ  map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Dean Heller (R)

VoteView 384

First elected 2006

2008 margin  52-41 over Jill Derby (remainder split)

2006 margin  50-45

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-49

Bush margin 2004 57-41

Current opponents There’s  a primary, and then Paul Reeves (I couldn’t find a website, but he’s on Facebook) is running and others considering.

Demographics   21st most veterans (17.1%)

Assessment Possible.  The 2008 race wasn’t exactly decisive.

District: NV-03

Location A Y shaped district of Las Vegas suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Dina Titus (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin   47-42 over Jon Porter

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 55-43

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot are considering.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  A little vulnerable.  Winning with under 50% of the vote is less than superlative.

District: NH-01

Location The eastern part of NH, bordering ME  map

Cook PVI Even

Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D)

VoteView 134

First elected 2006

2008 margin  52-46 over Jeb Bradley

2006 margin  51-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents At least two Republicans: Frank Guinta and Robert Bestani.

Demographics  55th fewest in poverty (6.7%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 24th fewest Blacks (0.7%)

Assessment Vulnerable, but perhaps less so than in 2008. Shea-Porter, never a huge fund raiser, has got $180K COH.

District: NH-02

Location The western part of NH, bordering Canada, VT, and MA  map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Paul Hodes (D) Retiring to run for Senate

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin  NA

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Current opponents A whole bunch of people considering (see the Wiki).  Confirmed Democrats include: Ann McLane Kuster (more developed site is in the works) and Mark Fernald.  Both websites paint fairly progressive portraits.

Demographics  57th most rural (48.3%), 50th fewest in poverty (6.4%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%).

Assessment An open seat is never safe.

District: NJ-01

Location A T shaped district in southwestern NJ, bordering PA and a tiny bit of DE map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Robert Andrews (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 112.5

First elected 1990

2008 margin  72-26 over Dale Glading

2006 margin  Unopposed

2004 margin 65-33

Obama margin 65-34

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-02

Location Southernmost NJ, on the Delaware Bay and Atlantic  map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Frank LoBiondo (R)

VoteView 244

First elected 1994

2008 margin  59-39 over David Kurkowksi.

2006 margin  62-36

2004 margin 65-33

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot.  Although this is an increasingly D district, LoBiondo seems popular.

District: NJ-03

Location  The southernmost of several CDs that stretch east-west across NJ, this one from the Atlantic to PA.  map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative John Adler (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 52-48 over Chris Myers

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 52-47

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 20th fewest in poverty (5.1%)

Assessment Vulnerable, Adler is a freshman in a swing district

District: NJ-04

Location Another east west strip, more or less in the middle of the state, including Trenton.  Bordering PA and the Atlantic  map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Christopher Smith (R)

VoteView 243

First elected 1980

2008 margin  66-32 over Josh Zeitz

2006 margin  66-33

2004 margin  67-32

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  63rd highest income (median = $54K)

Assessment Long shot

District: Northernmost NJ, bordering PA and NY, including NYC suburbs  NJ-05

Location map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Scott Garrett (R)

VoteView 415

First elected 2002

2008 margin  56-42 over Dennis Shulman

2006 margin 55-44

2004 margin 58-41

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 6th highest income (median = $73K), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)

Assessment It would be so nice to get rid of this troglodyte.

District: NJ-06

Location A strange, thready district, running from a NYC suburb (Plainfield) south and east to Long Beach and then south to Asbury Park  map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Frank Pallone (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 35.5

First elected 1988

2008 margin  67-32 over Robert McLeod

2006 margin  69-30

2004 margin  67-31

Obama margin 60-38

Bush margin 2004 43-57

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-07

Location Another strange shape, running east west, but shaped like the Greek letter . map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative Leonard Lance (R)

VoteView 252

First elected 2008

2008 margin  51-42 over Linda Stender

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 50-49

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 4th wealthiest (median income = $75K)

Assessment Vulnerable.

District: NJ-08

Location More NYC suburbs, including Wayne, Patterson, and West Orange  map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Bill Pascrell

VoteView 67

First elected 1996

2008 margin  71-28 over Ron Stratten

2006 margin  71-28

2004 margin 69-29

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 41st fewest veterans 8.3%)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-09

Location Close NYC suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative Steven Rothman (D)

VoteView 102.5

First elected 1996

2008 margin  68-32 over Vincent Micco

2006 margin  71-28

2004 margin  68-32

Obama margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents There’s a Democratic primary

Demographics 48th fewest veterans (8.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-10

Location Newark, and some NYC suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 33

Representative Donald Payne (D)

VoteView 17

First elected 1988

2008 margin  Unopposed

2006 margin  Unopposed

2004 margin  No major party opposition

Obama margin 87-13

Bush margin 2004 82-18

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 25th fewest Whites (21.4%), 16th most Blacks (56.4%), 15th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-11

Location Central northern NJ, including Dover  map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Rodney Freylingheusen (R)

VoteView 276

First elected 1994

2008 margin  62-37 over Tom Wyka

2006 margin  62-37

2004 margin  68-31

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 2nd highest income (median = $79K)

Assessment Long shot

District: NJ-12

Location   Another east west strip, from north of Trenton (on the PA border) to NYC suburbs in the east, and almost to the Atlantic map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Rush Holt (D)

VoteView 38

First elected 1998

2008 margin  63-36 over Alan Bateman

2006 margin  66-34

2004 margin 59-40

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 46-55

Current opponents There’s a primary, and then Mike Halfacre

Demographics 15th highest median income ($70K)

Assessment Save

District: NJ-13

Location Yet another strange shaped district, this one runs north-south along the Hudson River and the Atlantic, with a gap  map

Cook PVI D + 21

Representative Albio Sires (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 112.5

First elected 2006 (special election)

2008 margin  75-22 over Joseph Turula

2006 margin  78-19

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 75-25

Bush margin 2004 31-69

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 12th fewest veterans (5.4%), 51st fewest Whites (32.3%), 26th most Latinos (47.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NM-01

Location Albuquerque and suburbs, and some desert  map

Cook PVI 275

Representative Martin Heinrich (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  55-45 over Darren White

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 60-39

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents Jon Barela

Demographics  86th fewest Whites (48.5%),  92nd fewest Blacks (2.3%), 32nd most Latinos (42.6%)

Assessment Not completely safe, but should be OK.  Heinrich has raised an impressive $600K to Barela’s $73K

District: NM-02

Location The southern half of NM, bordering AZ, TX, and Mexico map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Harry Teague (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  56-44 over Edward Tinsley

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-50

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents Steve Pearce

Demographics   20th lowest income (median = $29K), 73rd fewest Whites (44.3%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 29th most Latinos (47.3%)

Assessment A district that went for McCain can’t be considered safe for a freshman D.  But, OTOH, he did win in 2008.  Teague has raised $620 K already, to Pearce’s $63K.

District: NM-03

Location Northern half of NM, including Santa Fe, bordering AZ, CO, OK, and TX, and touching corners with UT. map

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Ben Ray Lujan (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  57-31 over Daniel East

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 46-54

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 68th fewest Whites (41.4%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 38th most Latinos (36.3%), 14th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 18.9% Native American)

Assessment Probably safe

According to the lastest Survey USA poll Tom Udall is crushing both potential republican foes.  In head to head matchups Udall leads Pearce by 24 points and Wilson by 26.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…

Udall (D) – 60

Pearce (R) – 36

Udall (D) – 61

Wilson (R) – 35

In the Republican primary poll Pearce currently leads Wilson by 3.

Pearce – 49

Wilson – 46

My money is on Pearce winning the republican nomination rather easily given he is more conservative than Wilson.  It seems to matter little though which candidate Udall faces, Wilson and Pearce have bloodied each other so badly that neither can win the general.  Then number that really jumps out at me is Udall carrying >70% of the Hispanic vote.  That is HUGE in a state like NM.

Continuing through the alphabet

NJ has 13 representatives: 7 Democrats and 6 Republicans

Filing deadline April 7, primary June 3

NM has 3 representatives: 2 Republicans and 1 Democrat

Filing deadline was Feb 12, primary is June 3

District: NJ-01

Location A T shaped district in southwestern NJ, bordering PA and a tiny bit of DE

Representative Robert Andrews (D) may retire to run for senate

First elected 1990

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin 75-25

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Notes on opponents In 2004, Daniel Hutchison raised $200K to Andrews $800K

Current opponents No declared Republicans

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe for Democrats

District: NJ-02

Location Southernmost NJ, on the Delaware Bay and Atlantic

Representative Frank LoBiondo (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 62-36

2004 margin 65-33

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot

District: NJ-03

Location The southernmost of several CDs that stretch east-west across NJ, this one from the Atlantic to PA.

Representative Jim Saxton (R) retiring

First elected  1984

2006 margin 58-41

2004 margin 63-35

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Rich Sexton raised $161K to Saxton’s $1.3 million

Current opponents John Adler

Demographics 20th fewest in poverty (5.1%)

Assessment Vulnerable.  With Saxton out, this swing district is prime pickup territory.  It’s on the DCCC list , and superribbie ranks it the most vulnerable seat.

District: NJ-04

Location Another east west strip, more or less in the middle of the state, including Trenton.  Bordering PA and the Atlantic

Representative Christopher Smith (R)

First elected  1980

2006 margin 66-33

2004 margin 67-32

Bush margin 2004 56-44

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents Josh Zeitz

Demographics 63rd highest income (median = $54K)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable superribbie ranks this 77 of all Republican seats

District: NJ-05

Location Northernmost NJ, bordering PA and NY, including NYC suburbs

Representative Scott Garrett (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 55-44

2004 margin 58-41

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Notes on opponents Each raised about $500K, Garrett about $1 million in each

Current opponents Dennis Shulman and

Camille Abate

Demographics 6th highest income (median = $73K), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. superribbie ranks this 55th of all Republican seats.  Garrett’s winning percentage is shrinking, he did no better than Bush in 04, and that won’t be enough in ’08.

District: NJ-06

Location A strange, thready district, running from a NYC suburb (Plainfield) south and east to Long Beach and then south to Asbury Park

Representative Frank Pallone (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin 69-30

2004 margin 67-31

Bush margin 2004 43-57

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-07

Location Another strange shape, running east west, but shaped like the Greek letter ?.

Representative Michael Ferguson (R) retiring

First elected  2000

2006 margin 49-48

2004 margin 57-42

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Notes on opponents In 2006, Linda Stender raised $1.9 million to Ferguson’s $3 million; in 2004, Steve Brozak raised $800K to Ferguson’s $2.8 million

Current opponents Linda Stender is running again, as is Upendra Chivakula and a few Republicans

Demographics 4th wealthiest (median income = $75K)

Assessment Vulnerable. superribbie ranks this 8th of all Republican seats, and it’s on the DCCC list .  This is a competitive race near NYC, so all you NYC kossacks with time on your hands… this is a spot (but don’t ignore our own Vito Fosella, NY-13). Prime pickup material – Stender almost beat a fairly moderate Republican incumbent.  

District: NJ-08

Location More NYC suburbs, including Wayne, Patterson, and West Orange

Representative Bill Pascrell (D)

First elected   1996

2006 margin 71-28

2004 margin 69-29

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Notes on opponents In 2006, Jose Sandoval raised $200K to Pascrell’s $1 million; in 2004, George Aijan raised $100K to Pascrell’s $900K

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 41st fewest veterans 8.3%)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-09

Location Close NYC suburbs

Representative Steve Rothman (D)

First elected  1996

2006 margin 71-28

2004 margin 68-32

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Notes on opponents Neither raised much

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 48th fewest veterans (8.6%)

Assessment safe

District: NJ-10

Location Newark, and some NYC suburbs

Representative Donald Payne (D)

First elected  1988

2006 margin unopposed

2004 margin No major party opposition

Bush margin 2004 18-82

Notes on opponents NA

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 25th fewest Whites (56.4%), 16th most Blacks (21.4%), 15th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-11

Location Central northern NJ, including Dover

Representative Rodney Freylinghuysen (R)

First elected  1994

2006 margin 62-37

2004 margin 68-31

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Tom Wyka , who lost in 2006

Demographics 2nd highest income (median = $79K)

Assessment Long shot

District: NJ-12

Location Another east west strip, from north of Trenton (on the PA border) to NYC suburbs in the east, and almost to the Atlantic

Representative Rush Holt (D)

First elected 1998

2006 margin 66-34

2004 margin 59-40

Bush margin 2004 46-54

Notes on opponents In 2004, Bill Spadea raised $350K to Holt’s $1.6 million.  In 2006, Joseph Sinagra raised little

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 15th highest median income ($70K)

Assessment Almost totally safe

District: NJ-13

Location Yet another strange shaped district, this one runs north-south along the Hudson River and the Atlantic, with a gap

Representative Albio Sires (D)

First elected  2006 (special election to replace Menendez, who became Senator)

2006 margin 78-19 (regular election)

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 31-69

Notes on opponents None raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 12th fewest veterans (5.4%), 51st fewest Whites (32.3%), 26th most Latinos (47.6%), 27th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NM-01

Location Albuquerque and suburbs, and some desert

Representative Heather Wilson (R) probably retiring to run for Senate

First elected  1998

2006 margin 861 votes out of 211,000

2004 margin 54-46

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Notes on opponents In 2004, Richard Romero raised $2 million to Wilson’s $3.4 million; in 2006, Patricia Madrid raised $3.3 million to Wilson’s $5 million

Current opponents Martin Heinrich ; Rebecca Vigil-Giron ; Jessica Wolfe ; Robert Pidcock are the Democrats

Demographics 86th fewest Whites (48.5%),  92nd fewest Blacks (2.3%), 32nd most Latinos (42.6%)

Assessment Very vulnerable. superribbie  ranks it the 4th most vulnerable Republican seat, and it’s on the DCCC list .

District: NM-02

Location The southern half of NM, bordering AZ, TX, and Mexico

Representative Steve Pearce (R) probably retiring to run for Senate

First elected  2002

2006 margin 59-40

2004 margin 60-40

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Notes on opponents In 2004, Gary King raised $1.1 million to Pearce’s $2 million; in 2006, Albert Kissling raised $180K to Pearce’s $1.3 million

Current opponents Bill McCamley who wrote on Daily Kos

Albert Kissling , the 2006 candidate, and  

Frank McKinnon are the Democrats

Demographics 20th lowest income (median = $29K), 73rd fewest Whites (44.3%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 29th most Latinos (47.3%)

Assessment Vulnerable, superribbie ranks it the 28th most vulnerable Republican seat, and it’s on the DCCC list

District: NM-03

Location Northern half of NM, including Santa Fe, bordering AZ, CO, OK, and TX, and touching corners with UT.

Representative Tom Udall (D) retiring to run for Senate

First elected  1998

2006 margin 75-25

2004 margin 69-31

Bush margin 2004 45-54

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents Don Wiviott

Benny Shendo

Harry Montoya

Ben Lujan

and

Rudy Martin

are the Democrats

Demographics 68th fewest Whites (41.4%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 38th most Latinos (36.3%), 14th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 18.9% Native American)

Assessment Slightly vulnerable. superribbie ranks it the 30th most vulnerable Democratic seat  

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, and PA; today, NM, where the filing  is 2/12, and IN, where it is 2/22.

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics.  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

NM has 3 congressional districts, 2 are held by Republicans, 1 by a Democrat

IN has 9 districts, 5 Democratic and 4 Republican

The districts held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

IN-01     D+8      .45      Visclosky       Yes            Safe (rematch)

IN-02     R+4      .59      Donnelly        Yes            Somewhat vul

IN-07     D+9      .20      none (Carson)   Yes            Prob. safe

IN-08     R+9      .70      Ellsworth       Yes            Unclear

IN-09     R+7      .75      Hill            Yes            Vulnerable            

NM-03     D+6      .34      Udall           No             Udall retiring

Indiana has several vulnerable representatives.

NM-03 is probably safely Democratic….NM will be one wild place, with all the house seats open, and one senate seat, and Richardson running for President (not any more).

Now, for the seats held by Republicans:

IN-03 R+16  .70

IN-03 is the NE corner of IN, bordering MI and OH

Souder, first elected in 1994, has had a couple of fairly close races.  In 2006, he won 54-46 against Thomas Hayhurst, in a relatively low cost race (each spent around $700,000)

Hayhurst may run again, and Mike Montagano is definitely running.  In October, he had more cash on hand than Souder did, and has several endorsements.  Could be interesting

IN-04 R+17 .73

IN-04 is a long, narrow district, in western central IN, including western exurbs of Indianapolis

Buyer, first elected in 1992, has won easily without spending huge amounts, the last two times against David Sanders

Sanders might run again, and Nels Ackerson is running. His website makes him sound distinctly moderate, and this looks like a longshot

IN-05 R+20 .75

IN-05 is also long and narrow, but it’s eastern central IN, including northern and eastern suburbs of Indianopolis.

Burton, first elected in 1982, has won easily, although his closest race ever was in 2006, when Katherine Carr managed to get 31% with almost no money.

She might run again, but there is no confirmed challenger.

IN-06 R+11 .72

IN-06 is yet another long, narrow district, this one on the eastern edge of IN, bordering OH, and home of the famously typical Muncie

Pence, first elected in 2000, has not had well-funded opponents.  In 2006, Barry Welsh got 40% with only $45,000 (to Pence’s $1.3 million).

Welsh is running again; he’s also written about his race on daily Kos .

NM-01 D+2 .34

NM-01 is the center of NM, including Albuquerque

Wilson, first elected in 1998, won one of the closest (maybe the closest) races in the country in 2006, winning by 861 votes out of 210,000, in a race where she spent almost $5 million and her opponent, Patricia Madrid, spent over $3 million.  Now, Wilson is likely to retire to run for Senate.

There are two confirmed Democrats: Martin Heinrich ; Jon Adams ; and (Jason Call has withdrawn, unfortunately), and several others (including Madrid) might run.  No confirmed Republicans yet.  Gonna be interesting!

NM-02 R+6  .37

NM-02 is the southern half of NM.

Pearce, first elected in 2002, and re-elected pretty easily even against well-funded opponents (he won 60-40 in 2004 against Gary King, who spent over $1 million), is probably retiring to run for Senate.

There are 4 confirmed Democrats: Bill McCamley ; Al Kissling ; Harry Teague and Joe Cervantes. McCamley wrote about his candidacy here .