Tag: NE

Previous diares

Summary:

 NE has 3 reps: all R

 NV has 3 reps: 2 D, 1 R

 NH has 2 reps: both D

 NJ has 13 reps: 8 D, 5 R

 NM has 3 reps: All D

Possibly vulnerable:

 NE-02 (R) (a little)

 NV-03 (D) (a little)

 NH-01 (D) (a little)

 NH-02 (D)

 NJ-03 (D)

 NJ-07 (R)

 NM-02

Sources:

House vote in 2008 from WaPo

VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)

Race Tracker

Obama vote by CD from Swing State

National Atlas for maps

and my previous diaries.

District: NE-01

Location Eastern NE, except for Omaha.  Borders MO and IA  map

Cook PVI R + 11

Representative Jeff Fortenberry (R)

VoteView 267

First elected 2004

2008 margin  70-30 over Max Yashrin

2006 margin  58-42

2004 margin 54-43

Obama margin 44-54

Bush margin 2004 36-64

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 51st fewest Blacks (1.4%)  

Assessment Long shot

District: NE-02

Location  Omaha and suburbs  map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Lee Terry (R)

VoteView 373

First elected 1998

2008 margin  52-48 over Jim Esch (D)

2006 margin  55-45

2004 margin 61-36

Obama margin 50-49

Bush margin 2004 39-60

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Possible.  NE-02 wen narrowly for Obama, and this is a possible pickup.

District: NE-03

Location The western 3/4 of the state, bordering SD, WY, CO and KS  map

Cook PVI R + 24

Representative Adrian Smith (R)

VoteView 371

First elected 2006

2008 margin  77-23 over Jay Stoddard

2006 margin  55-45

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 30-68

Bush margin 2004 75-24

Current opponents Rebekah Davis (this website needs help!)

Demographics  33rd most rural (53.9%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 9th most Republican

Assessment Long shot

District: NV-01

Location   Las Vegas  map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Shelley Berkley Not confirmed

VoteView 180

First elected 1998

2008 margin  68-28 over Kenneth Wegner

2006 margin  65-31

2004 margin  66-31

Obama margin 64-34

Bush margin 2004 42-57

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  55th most Latinos (28.2%)

Assessment Safe

District: NV-02

Location Almost the whole state, except for Las Vegas and suburbs, bordering CA, OR, ID, UT, and AZ  map

Cook PVI R + 5

Representative Dean Heller (R)

VoteView 384

First elected 2006

2008 margin  52-41 over Jill Derby (remainder split)

2006 margin  50-45

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-49

Bush margin 2004 57-41

Current opponents There’s  a primary, and then Paul Reeves (I couldn’t find a website, but he’s on Facebook) is running and others considering.

Demographics   21st most veterans (17.1%)

Assessment Possible.  The 2008 race wasn’t exactly decisive.

District: NV-03

Location A Y shaped district of Las Vegas suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 2

Representative Dina Titus (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin   47-42 over Jon Porter

2006 margin NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 55-43

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents None confirmed, but a lot are considering.

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment  A little vulnerable.  Winning with under 50% of the vote is less than superlative.

District: NH-01

Location The eastern part of NH, bordering ME  map

Cook PVI Even

Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D)

VoteView 134

First elected 2006

2008 margin  52-46 over Jeb Bradley

2006 margin  51-49

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 53-46

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Current opponents At least two Republicans: Frank Guinta and Robert Bestani.

Demographics  55th fewest in poverty (6.7%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 24th fewest Blacks (0.7%)

Assessment Vulnerable, but perhaps less so than in 2008. Shea-Porter, never a huge fund raiser, has got $180K COH.

District: NH-02

Location The western part of NH, bordering Canada, VT, and MA  map

Cook PVI D + 3

Representative Paul Hodes (D) Retiring to run for Senate

VoteView NA

First elected NA

2008 margin  NA

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 56-43

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Current opponents A whole bunch of people considering (see the Wiki).  Confirmed Democrats include: Ann McLane Kuster (more developed site is in the works) and Mark Fernald.  Both websites paint fairly progressive portraits.

Demographics  57th most rural (48.3%), 50th fewest in poverty (6.4%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%).

Assessment An open seat is never safe.

District: NJ-01

Location A T shaped district in southwestern NJ, bordering PA and a tiny bit of DE map

Cook PVI D + 12

Representative Robert Andrews (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 112.5

First elected 1990

2008 margin  72-26 over Dale Glading

2006 margin  Unopposed

2004 margin 65-33

Obama margin 65-34

Bush margin 2004 39-61

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics   Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-02

Location Southernmost NJ, on the Delaware Bay and Atlantic  map

Cook PVI D + 1

Representative Frank LoBiondo (R)

VoteView 244

First elected 1994

2008 margin  59-39 over David Kurkowksi.

2006 margin  62-36

2004 margin 65-33

Obama margin 54-45

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Current opponents

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Long shot.  Although this is an increasingly D district, LoBiondo seems popular.

District: NJ-03

Location  The southernmost of several CDs that stretch east-west across NJ, this one from the Atlantic to PA.  map

Cook PVI R + 1

Representative John Adler (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin 52-48 over Chris Myers

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 52-47

Bush margin 2004 51-49

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 20th fewest in poverty (5.1%)

Assessment Vulnerable, Adler is a freshman in a swing district

District: NJ-04

Location Another east west strip, more or less in the middle of the state, including Trenton.  Bordering PA and the Atlantic  map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Christopher Smith (R)

VoteView 243

First elected 1980

2008 margin  66-32 over Josh Zeitz

2006 margin  66-33

2004 margin  67-32

Obama margin 47-52

Bush margin 2004 44-56

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics  63rd highest income (median = $54K)

Assessment Long shot

District: Northernmost NJ, bordering PA and NY, including NYC suburbs  NJ-05

Location map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Scott Garrett (R)

VoteView 415

First elected 2002

2008 margin  56-42 over Dennis Shulman

2006 margin 55-44

2004 margin 58-41

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 57-43

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 6th highest income (median = $73K), 55th fewest Blacks (1.5%)

Assessment It would be so nice to get rid of this troglodyte.

District: NJ-06

Location A strange, thready district, running from a NYC suburb (Plainfield) south and east to Long Beach and then south to Asbury Park  map

Cook PVI D + 8

Representative Frank Pallone (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 35.5

First elected 1988

2008 margin  67-32 over Robert McLeod

2006 margin  69-30

2004 margin  67-31

Obama margin 60-38

Bush margin 2004 43-57

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 67th highest income (median = $56K)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-07

Location Another strange shape, running east west, but shaped like the Greek letter . map

Cook PVI R + 3

Representative Leonard Lance (R)

VoteView 252

First elected 2008

2008 margin  51-42 over Linda Stender

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 50-49

Bush margin 2004 53-47

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 4th wealthiest (median income = $75K)

Assessment Vulnerable.

District: NJ-08

Location More NYC suburbs, including Wayne, Patterson, and West Orange  map

Cook PVI D + 10

Representative Bill Pascrell

VoteView 67

First elected 1996

2008 margin  71-28 over Ron Stratten

2006 margin  71-28

2004 margin 69-29

Obama margin 63-36

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 41st fewest veterans 8.3%)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-09

Location Close NYC suburbs map

Cook PVI D + 9

Representative Steven Rothman (D)

VoteView 102.5

First elected 1996

2008 margin  68-32 over Vincent Micco

2006 margin  71-28

2004 margin  68-32

Obama margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 41-59

Current opponents There’s a Democratic primary

Demographics 48th fewest veterans (8.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-10

Location Newark, and some NYC suburbs  map

Cook PVI D + 33

Representative Donald Payne (D)

VoteView 17

First elected 1988

2008 margin  Unopposed

2006 margin  Unopposed

2004 margin  No major party opposition

Obama margin 87-13

Bush margin 2004 82-18

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 25th fewest Whites (21.4%), 16th most Blacks (56.4%), 15th most Democratic

Assessment Safe

District: NJ-11

Location Central northern NJ, including Dover  map

Cook PVI R + 7

Representative Rodney Freylingheusen (R)

VoteView 276

First elected 1994

2008 margin  62-37 over Tom Wyka

2006 margin  62-37

2004 margin  68-31

Obama margin 45-54

Bush margin 2004 58-42

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 2nd highest income (median = $79K)

Assessment Long shot

District: NJ-12

Location   Another east west strip, from north of Trenton (on the PA border) to NYC suburbs in the east, and almost to the Atlantic map

Cook PVI D + 5

Representative Rush Holt (D)

VoteView 38

First elected 1998

2008 margin  63-36 over Alan Bateman

2006 margin  66-34

2004 margin 59-40

Obama margin 41-58

Bush margin 2004 46-55

Current opponents There’s a primary, and then Mike Halfacre

Demographics 15th highest median income ($70K)

Assessment Save

District: NJ-13

Location Yet another strange shaped district, this one runs north-south along the Hudson River and the Atlantic, with a gap  map

Cook PVI D + 21

Representative Albio Sires (D) Not confirmed

VoteView 112.5

First elected 2006 (special election)

2008 margin  75-22 over Joseph Turula

2006 margin  78-19

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 75-25

Bush margin 2004 31-69

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 12th fewest veterans (5.4%), 51st fewest Whites (32.3%), 26th most Latinos (47.6%)

Assessment Safe

District: NM-01

Location Albuquerque and suburbs, and some desert  map

Cook PVI 275

Representative Martin Heinrich (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  55-45 over Darren White

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 60-39

Bush margin 2004 48-51

Current opponents Jon Barela

Demographics  86th fewest Whites (48.5%),  92nd fewest Blacks (2.3%), 32nd most Latinos (42.6%)

Assessment Not completely safe, but should be OK.  Heinrich has raised an impressive $600K to Barela’s $73K

District: NM-02

Location The southern half of NM, bordering AZ, TX, and Mexico map

Cook PVI R + 6

Representative Harry Teague (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  56-44 over Edward Tinsley

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 49-50

Bush margin 2004 58-41

Current opponents Steve Pearce

Demographics   20th lowest income (median = $29K), 73rd fewest Whites (44.3%), 60th fewest Blacks (1.6%), 29th most Latinos (47.3%)

Assessment A district that went for McCain can’t be considered safe for a freshman D.  But, OTOH, he did win in 2008.  Teague has raised $620 K already, to Pearce’s $63K.

District: NM-03

Location Northern half of NM, including Santa Fe, bordering AZ, CO, OK, and TX, and touching corners with UT. map

Cook PVI D + 7

Representative Ben Ray Lujan (D)

VoteView NA

First elected 2008

2008 margin  57-31 over Daniel East

2006 margin  NA

2004 margin NA

Obama margin 61-38

Bush margin 2004 46-54

Current opponents None confirmed

Demographics 68th fewest Whites (41.4%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 38th most Latinos (36.3%), 14th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (mostly 18.9% Native American)

Assessment Probably safe

Nebraska has 3 representatives: All Republican

Filing deadline was March 3, primary is May 13

Nevada has 3 representatives: 2 Republican, 1 Democrat

Filing deadline is May 16, primary is Aug 12

New Hampshire has 2 representatives: Both Democrats

Filing deadline is June 13, primary is Sept 9

District: NE-01

Location Eastern NE, except for Omaha.  Borders MO and IA

Representative Jeff Fortenberry (R)

First elected  2004

2006 margin 58-42

2004 margin 54-43

Bush margin 2004 63-36

Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat and Fortenberry beat Matt Connealy, while raising $1.2 million to Connealy’s $1 million.  In 2006, Maxine Moul and Fortenberry each raised about $1 million

Current opponents Max Yashirin (site in development)

Demographics 51st fewest Blacks (1.4%)

Assessment Long shot

District: NE-02

Location Omaha and suburbs

Representative  Lee Terry (R)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin 61-36

Bush margin 2004 60-38

Notes on opponents In 2004, Nancy Thompson raised $900K to Terry’s $1.4 million.  In 2006, Jim Esch raised $400K to Terry’s $1 million

Current opponents Jim Esch ,

Richard Carter (who blogs at Daily Kos: list of Richard Carter diaries

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment One can’t say we’re the favorites, here, but I think we have some chance

District: NE-03

Location The western 3/4 of the state, bordering SD, WY, CO and KS

Representative Adrian Smith (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 55-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 75-24

Notes on opponents In 2006, Scott Kleeb made this a close race, raising $1 million to Smith’s $1.2 million

Current opponents Jay Stoddard and Paul Spatz

Demographics 33rd most rural (53.9%), tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 6th most Republican

Assessment Long shot.  Kleeb is running for Senate, which is probably an easier race to win

District: NV-01

Location Las Vegas

Representative Shelley Berkley (D)

First elected  1998

2006 margin 65-31

2004 margin 66-31

Bush margin 2004 41-57

Notes on opponents Neither raised money

Current opponents None declared

Demographics 55th most Latinos (28.2%)

Assessment Safe

District: NV-02

Location Almost the whole state, except for Las Vegas and suburbs, bordering CA, OR, ID, UT, and AZ

Representative Dean Heller (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 57-41

Notes on opponents In 2006, this was an open seat. Heller and his opponent, Jill Derby, each raised about $1.6 million

Current opponents Jill Derby is running again

Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%),

Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. superribbie ranks this the 38th most vulnerable Republican seat.  This may depend on how fed up the military gets with the Republicans and Iraq

District: NV-03

Location A Y shaped district of Las Vegas suburbs

Representative Jon Porter (R)

First elected  2002

2006 margin 48-47

2004 margin 54-40

Bush margin 2004 50-49

Notes on opponents In 2006, Tessa Hafen raised $1.5 million to Porter’s $3 million.  In 2004, Tom Gallagher and Porter each raised around $2.5 million

Current opponents Andrew Martin and Barry Michaels and Robert Daskas

Demographics Not unusual on what I track

Assessment Vulnerable.  superrribie (link above) ranks this the 21st most vulnerable Republican seat

District: NH-01

Location The eastern part of NH, bordering ME

Representative Carol Shea-Porter (D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 51-49

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 51-48

Notes on opponents In 2006, Shea-Porter did something very unusual: She ousted an incumbent while spending much less than the incumbent ($300K to $1 million).  A people-powered progressive, she has turned down opportunities from the DCCC.

Current opponents Jeb Bradley wants a rematch. John Stephen doesn’t want him to have one.

Demographics 55th fewest in poverty (6.7%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 24th fewest Blacks (0.7%)

Assessment  Although superribbie ranks this the 10th most vulnerable Democratic seat, I think this is one where models fail.

District: NH-02

Location The western part of NH, bordering Canada, VT, and MA

Representative Paul Hodes(D)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 53-46

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 47-52

Notes on opponents In 2006, Hodes ousted Charles Bass, raising $1.6 million to Bass’ $1.2 million.

Current opponents Jim Steiner.

Demographics 57th most rural (48.3%), 50th fewest in poverty (6.4%), 14th most Whites (95.1%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%).

Assessment  Somewhat vulnerable, superribbie ranks this the 24th most vulnerable Democratic seat

I am all for running everywhere, and the 50 state strategy.

But neither we nor the Republicans are running everywhere (at least not yet!) In this series, I will look at where we are not running (I am not going to look at where Republicans are not running, as I have no desire to help Republicans, however modestly)

This diary is partly inspired by the great work done by BENAWU.

crossposted to dailyKos

In previous diaries, I looked at TX, OH, IL, MD, MS, WV, KY, PA, NC, NM and IN; today, NC where the deadline is 2/29 and NE, where it is 3/3

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

NC has 13 congressional districts, 6 are held by Republicans, 7 by Democrats

NE has 3 districts, all Republican

The districts held by Democrats are



                                          Confirmed

district Cook Prob Repub   Incumbent       Challenger?     rating

NC-01    D+9     .28       Butterfield        No

NC-02    R+3     .50       Etheridge          No

NC-04    D+6     .44       Price              No

NC-07    R+3     .40       McIntyre           Yes          Safe

NC-11    R+7     .73       Shuler             Yes          Vul (?)

NC-12    D+11    .15       Watt               No

NC-13    D+2     .39       Miller             No

basically, all these seats are pretty safe except maybe Shuler’s.

As for the Republicans

NC-03 R+15 .61

NC-03 is a bizarrely shaped district on the eastern part of NC, bordering on the Atlantic. It’s gerrymandered with NC-01. NC-01 is 50% Black and has median income of $28,410 (one of the lowest in the USA).  NC-03 is 17% Black and has a median income of $37,510; OK, only some of that is land that could be either CD…but….

Jones, first elected in 1994, has not been seriously challenged since, although his opponents recently have had no money.  He has recently become much less conservative, having a full about-face on the war. That accounts for a primary challenger.

His Democratic challenger is Marshall Adame , a kossack

NC-05 R+15  .79

NC-05 is the northern central part of NC, along the VA border.  

Foxx, first elected in 2004, was the survivor of a nasty Republican primary that year.  She won her general election relatively easily, though still getting 30,000 votes fewer than Bush did.

This year, one Democrat has announced Roy Carter , and several others might run: You can read about a debate they had in this live blog diary .

NC-06 R+17  .76

NC-06 is a weird shaped district in the middle of the state. One reason it’s so odd is to let NC-12 run along and through it, stopping at every Black community; another is so that NC-02 can carve the Black areas out of the eastern part of NC-06.  So, NC-02 is 30% Black, NC-12 is 45% Black, NC-06 is 9% Black.

Coble, first elected in 1984, has not been seriously challenged in decades.  But he’s getting old, and doesn’t appear to have filed.  The latest news on his campaign website is from 2004.

The only announced challenger is Johnny Carter.  

If Coble runs, he will be tough to beat.  If he retires…well,it’s still a Republican district, but things could get interesting.

NC-08 R+3 .37

NC-08 is the southwestern part of NC, along the SC border.

Hayes, first elected in 1998, has faced tough fights, never getting 60% and only once getting 55%.  In 2006, he beat Larry Kissel by 329 votes out of 121,000, in one of the closest races in the country.

Kissell is running again, and several others may run.  Kissell announced his run right after the last election.  This time the DCCC is fully behind Kissell. And Larry is a frequent poster on daily Kos

NC-09 R+12 .64

NC-09 is another odd shaped district, this one in the southern central part of NC, bordering SC. Again, this one is weird because of NC-12.  

Myrick, first elected in 1994, has won easily since, against underfinanced opponents.  In 2004, she got 17,000 more votes than Bush.

There are two formally announced challengers:

Ross Overby .  Ross seems like a moderate.  One nice feature on his website, though, is a button “if you usually vote Republican, click here”.  In a district like NC-09, a winning Democrat has to appeal to Republicans

and

Harry Taylor who seems more progressive.

and one who seems to be running: Bill Glass, who ran in 2006.

NC-10 R+15 .70

NC-10 is a north-south strip, separating the western tip of the state from the rest.

McHenry, first elected in 2004, won fairly easily against under-funded opponents.  He got about the same number of votes as Bush in 2004

His Democratic opponent this time is Steve Ivester

NE-01 R+12 .66

NE-01 is the eastern third of NE, excluding Omaha

Fortenberry, first elected in 2004, has had surprisingly tough races.  In 2004, he won 54-43, and in 2006, he won 58-42, both times against well-funded opponents, in races that cost roughly $2 million each, about evenly split between  incumbent and challenger.  In 2004, he got 26,000 votes less than Bush.

There are no confirmed challengers.  Maxine Moul, the 2006 challenger, may run again.

NE-02 R+9 .41

NE-02 is Omaha and suburbs

Terry, first elected in 1998, had his toughest race in 2006, when he won 55-45, despite outspending Jim Esch by about 2-1.

There is no confirmed challenger. State Sen Tom White may run

NE-03  R+24 .76

NE-03 is the vast, western 2/3 of NE; more rural than 92% of all districts.

Smith, first elected in 2006, had a tough race against Scott Kleeb, winning 55-45 (Bush, by contrast, got 75% in 2004)

Kleeb may run again