Tag: US Senate

crossposted at StochasticDemocracy and DailyKos

These are the Labor Day election forecasts of Stochastic Democracy, in collaboration with Professor Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium. We  have launched a new Election Forecasting System for House, Senate and Gubernatorial Elections and for tracking the Generic Ballot.

But before we discuss the forecasts in more detail, let me first get out of the way who we are and why you should listen to what we’re predicting:

Who we are (quoted from the FAQ at our site):

The team consists of David Shor, Harry Enten, and Rasmus Pianowski. David is a Math student currently visiting Princeton University as a Visiting Graduate Student. Harry is an undergraduate at Dartmouth and an intern at Pollster.com. Rasmus (that’s me) is a freshman at University of Hamburg, he has done political consulting and Media Outreach work for Montana congressional candidate Tyler Gernant.

The site is closely affiliated to Professor Wang’s Princeton Election Consortium.

Why you should listen to us

We have an outstanding track record.

In 2008, we correctly predicted the results of 49 of the 50 states in the Presidential Election, missing only Indiana (where we predicted that Obama had a 48% chance to win). We correctly predicted every single Senate and Gubernatorial election, and were off on the national popular vote for President by only 0.08%..

We also predicted that Obama would get 364 Electoral Votes, he ended up with 365 Electoral Votes.

In 2009, we correctly predicted the outcome of the 2009 Israeli Knesset election as well as 4 of the 5 notoriously hard to predict 2009 off-year elections- Pollster.com got only 2 correct, 538.com didn’t even put up predictions.

And we have a solid forecasting methodology that combines advanced statistical techniques with a huge polling database- and we do account for House Effects, so that you can be sure that our ratings aren’t swayed by Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports polls too much.

Now on to the Forecasts.

Let me get out the bad news, and there is a lot of bad news, quickly:

The GOP is favored to take over the House, several Senate seats and Governorships.

For a complete list of election results, please visit Stochastic Democracy, here you’ll only find an analysis of several important races, maps and tables with results for select races.

Senate

As you can see, things look rather badly for the Democrats on the Senate front. While Republicans seem like relatively heavy underdogs to get a majority in the Senate, they at least will pick up several seats.

Arkansas, North Dakota, Indiana and Delaware are gone. With deficits of more than 15% in even the closest of these four races, it doesn’t make much sense to keep fighting except for helping down-ballot races.

In Pennsylvania, Joe Sestak has a fighting chance to mount yet another comeback, but so far his campaign hasn’t really taken off and with less than two months to go until the election he’s down against Pat Toomey by a bit less than 6%.

Colorado is close right now, even though the Republican candidate Ken Buck is ahead by a bit more than three points right now. The infighting among Colorado Conservatives in the Gubernatorial race might help Bennet to catch up.

In Florida the race is all but officially between incumbent Governor Charlie Crist, the Republican-turned Independent, and Tea Party favorite, Marco Rubio. The Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek has just about a 1 in 200 chance to win, while Rubio maintains a 4.5 point-advantage over Crist. The race is so unstable though that Crist can easily come back- or collapse.

In all other races, the incumbent party is currently favored (more or less) to retain their seats. For the Republicans, that means that Rob Portman (OH), Roy Blunt (MO), Rand Paul (KY), Richard Burr (NC) and the winner of the New Hampshire GOP primary (probably Kelly Ayotte) will more likely than not win.

The likely Democratic winners include Harry Reid (NV), Alexi Gianoullias (IL), Barbara Boxer (CA), Russ Feingold (WI)and Joe Manchin (WV), who is so heavily favored to retain the late Senator Byrd’s seat that this race doesn’t show up in the ‘most likely pickups’ table. On the other hand, Gianoullias, Reid and Feingold are all in races that could still go either way, even though they’re favored over their respective opponents right now.

Gubernatorial races

In the gubernatorial races, there are a few more highlights for Democrats, even though the bottom line looks rather bleak for Democrats here as well.

We are almost sure to lose six Governorships to the Republicans: In Kansas, Michigan, Iowa, Tennessee, Pennsylvania and Illinois. In every of those races except for Illinois, the Republican candidate is ahead by double digits, and most likely less than two months won’t be enough to close that gap.

On the bright side, we’re also almost certain to pick up the Governorships of Hawaii, Minnesota and Connecticut.

Maine is a race that doesn’t qualify as a ‘sure loss’ yet, but it doesn’t look good for Democrats, as Republican Paul LePage is leading Democrat Libby Mitchell by more than 8 points.

In the close battleground races it currently looks like Republican John Kasich is going to unseat incumbent Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio, Kasich is currently ahead by 4 points. The same could be said of New Mexico‘s gubernatorial race, where Republican Susana Martinez is favored to beat the Democratic Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish. Both of these races are close enough for Strickland and Denish to mount a comeback though.

Meanwhile, Democrats look like slight favorites in the gubernatorial elections of Florida, where Democrat Alex Sink leads the scandal-ridden Republican nominee Rick Scott, and in Rhode Island, where Democrat Frank Caprio is a slight favorite to win the governorship, edging former independent U.S. Senator Lincoln Chaffee. The Republican candidate is far behind.

Meanwhile, the true Toss-ups right now are in California (Brown vs. Whitman), Wisconsin (Barrett vs. Walker), and Oregon (Kitzhaber vs. Dudley). None of these races have a clear favorite right now, even though Barrett, Brown and Dudley would be slight favorites if the election was held today.

Democratic Governor Martin O’Malley (MD) and Republican Governor Rick Perry (TX)are both moderately favored to win their re-election bids against strong challengers, respectively former Governor Bob Ehrlich and Houston Mayor Bill White.

Incumbent party-candidates in New Hampshire (Lynch), Georgia (Deal), Massachusetts (Patrick) and in all races that aren’t listed here are favored to win their elections.

U.S. House

I don’t have enough space here to talk about all the interesting races as in the Senate and Governor sections, so let me just highlight the results of a couple of races that I know are dear to the netroots and of some especially close races:

In Florida-08 (Grayson-D), Alan Grayson is projected to lose to his challenger, Dan Webster, by 7.5%. He still has about a 25% chance to win reelection. Keep in mind that our model does not directly look at fundraising (it does look at Cook ratings though, and Cook does include fundraising in his ratings)- and Grayson has a gigantic warchest.

In Illinois-10 (open-R) Dan Seals is a slight favorite to finally become a U.S. Representative after twice unsuccessfully running against Mark Kirk.

In New York-20 (Murphy-D), Scott Murphy, who was elected with a strong Kossack phonebanking drive in the 2009 special election to replace Senator Gillibrand, looks like a slight favorite to win reelection. Bill Owens in NY-23 is a slight underdog though.

In Virginia-5 (Periello-D), red-district Progressive Tom Periello will almost certainly lose reelection.

In Idaho-1 (Minnick-D), the probably most conservative House Democrat Walt Minnick is projected to be a slight underdog in his reelection bid. You shouldn’t take this number too seriously though: This race is extreme. Minnick was, and the model can’t incorporate this, endorsed by the Tea Party Express and the Chamber of Commerce and praised by the Club for Growth, and the NRCC has already pulled resources from this district in the light of polls that show Minnick far ahead of his Republican opponent. Expect this number to shift as more polls come in, but right now our model isn’t convinced of Minnick’s staying power, as McCain won the district by a 61-35 margin in the 2008 Presidential Election while Minnick just barely beat a disliked Republican incumbent who won only 60% of his primary vote after winning a six-way GOP primary with 26% of the vote in 2006.

Races on knife’s edge: Here you can really make a difference

Julie Lassa (D) vs. Sean Duffy (R) (WI-07, Obey retiring)

Rep. Gerry Connoly (D) vs. Keith Firmian (R) (VA-11)

Rep. Phil Hare (D) vs. Robby Schilling (R) (IL-17)

Colleen Hanabusa (D) (likely) vs. Rep. Charles Djou (R) (HI-01)

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) vs. Jesse Kelly (R) (AZ-08)

All of these 5 races are so close that every additional volunteer or donor might tip the race.

Summary:

Again, the bottom line isn’t pretty: The Democrats are likely to lose the House, several Senate seats and more Governorships than they will pick up.

Talking about continuing the gains that Democrats made in 2006 and 2008 is irrational now- what we can all do is pick a few campaigns and invest a lot of our time and put our best efforts into limiting our losses.

What the DCCC does– cutting incumbents that can’t win loose, might be a good strategy for private volunteers and donors as well.

Hello everyone, It has been a long long while since I have posted here on SwingStateproject and due to the lack of posting/sleep I figured it would be nice to write up a little summary of how the 2010 Senate races look about a year out and take a closer look at how things may look further down the road.

So far from what I can tell there are 5 Democratic seats that are vulnerable and another 6 Republican Seats that are vulnerable.

Our Democratic Incumbents that face a stiff challenge in 2010.

AR-Sen: (Lean Republican) Senator Blanche Lincoln is polling very weak back home in Arkansas as James post from last week clearly shows.  http://www.swingstateproject.c…

To make the situation worse shes polling badly against virtual unknowns. This race kind of surpirses me since Senator Lincoln was able to win in 2004 with a solid 56-44 as Former (can’t say that enough) President Bush won the state by roughly the same margin. I think the Senator has a serious base problem on both sides. The Democratic base is likely turned off by her flip-flop on the Public Option in the heatlh care while the Republican base in this southern state is likely more energized. This is also one of the few states where President Obama did worse the Senator Kerry in the last presidential election. If I had to pick any incumbent democrat that I thought would go down next election I would place my bets on Senator Lincoln.

CO-Sen: (No Clear Favorite) The question here is will the Democratic primary hurt or help? My personal guess is hurt. Andrew Romanoff the former speaker of the Colorado House is running to challenge the appointed incumbent Senator Michael Bennet. I haven’t seen to many polls for the primary or general election in this state. Rassmussen had a poll about two weeks ago that had the likely Republican nominee Former Lietenant Governor Jane Norton defeating both Democrats (surprise, surprise) http://www.swingstateproject.c…

The Good news for Bennett however is that he is going into this race with a decent financial advantage over the NRSCs newest recruit. Romanoff could prove a problem but I have a feeling that deciding to run to the right of the incumbent Democrat in the Democratic primary is the nail in the coffin for his campaign.

CT-Sen: (No Clear Favorite)

Senator Dodd is in trouble allright. The countrywide scandal isn’t likely to go away anytime soon (no doubt Dodd must be contemplating stabbing Micheal Moore). The Republicans are likely to run on the countrywide scandal and nothing else. While useing scandal as an evasion for providing ideas has proven to work as an effective way of running a campaign in some cases, it might not work here simply becuase of how democratic Connecticut is. One asset Dodd has going for him is that the Senate Ethics commitee cleared him of any wrongdoing which will work well for him in the ad wars. Dodds polling is also on a rebound (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1374) after having been in the tank for several monthes however he still has a lot of work ahead of him if he plans on getting reelected. The likely republican candidate is fomrer Represenatative Rob Simmons.

NV-Sen (No Clear Favorite)

Sen. Harry Reid the guy who beat his opponent by a 2-1 margin in 2004 and rose to become the leader of the democratic caucus is now in the fight of his politcal carrier. Senator Reids position is comparable to that of Senator Lincolns in Arkansas. Both are trailing virtual unknowns. However both have the triditional advantages of incumbency and the money that comes with that. There are only 2 ways I see Reid getting saved between now and next year. 1. He starts winning some legislative victories for his caucus and party or 2. He follows the Corzine (NJ-GOV) Strategy of throwing the kitchen sink and everyone thing else a 8-figure campaign warchest can throw.

PA-Sen: (Lean Democratic) Senator Specters recent change of heart at the sight of polling showing him getting crushed in the Republican primary has not been as easy of a transition as the senator would have liked. Specter is polling dead even with his Republican rival Former Congressman Pat Tomney. Senator Specter also has to watch his left flank where Congressman Joe Sestak is running a tough campaign to defeat Senator Specter in the democratic primary.

Republicans:

KY-Sen (Lean Republican) With Senator Bunning out of the running the democratic hopes for an easy pickup have been dashed and replaced with a competitive open seat fight. The major Democratic candidates are Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo. Mongiardo this week caught a little bit of the shoe in foot while recorder in room disease last week http://www.swingstateproject.c… While this might not be the nail in the coffin for his campaign it certainly isn’t helpful to tell your boss you expect him to fail at this job and you are not interested in the office you are seeking. The Republican frontrunner in both the general and priamry elections by small margins is Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Taking Grayson on in the Republican primary is Son of the libertarian movements hero Rand Paul. I would personally like to see Conway vs. Paul and I think that would be the best scenario for democrats in this race.

LA-Sen: (Lean Republican) Senator Vitter would be a okay if he could have stayed out of the moral hypocracy zone. Sadly for Senator Vitter the democrats have found the one candidate that can give him a decent challenge, Congressman Charlie Melancon of the 3rd district is running.

Senator Vitter will need to rely on the same strategy as Senator Dodd and hope that the Republican lean of his state will help him survive scandal.

MO-Sen: (Lean Democratic) Senator Bond of Missouri has announced his intentions to retire which has opened up his senate seat. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is running on the democratic side and has the primary locked up at the moment. Meanwhile Congressman Roy Blunt has also locked up his parties nomination. It doesn’t look like either side will have the fun of a competitive primary in this state. The head to heads have generaly shown Carnahan with modest leads over Blunt.

OH-Sen: (No Clear Favorite) Lt. Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner are leading the charge for democrats in there aim to take back Ohios remaining GOP senate seat. With Republican Senator George Voinovich retiring, republicans have turned to one of the worst places to recruit potential candidates, the bush adminisration. Former congressman and trade rep. Rob Portman has the republican primary locked up. Most head to heads show both Fisher and Brunner with slight leads over Portman. In the Democratic primary it looks like Fisher should be considered the favorite due to a large financial advantage.

NH-Sen:(No Clear Favorite)

This is another state where the Republican incument (Senator Judd Gregg) has retired and both parties have allready selected there nominees for the office. The Republicans have nominated appointed Attorney General Kelly Ayotte while the Democrats have nominated Congressman Paul Hodes. The polling on this race shows a close match up. It is to early to tell which of these two will end up winning however Ms. Ayottes constant dodging of questions related to critical issues certainly is not helping her cause.

Other races that could become competitive:

Illinois: Waiting to see if Mark Kirk can avoid a tough challenge from the right and if he wins how well he polls after the primary.

Florida: If Floridas economic troubles can start being blamed on its governor like the other states have started doing then Crists bid for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martinez may face some opposition.

North Caroinla: The Democrats problem here is that they cannot get a strong candidate to announce. It is quite clear that Senator Burr is vulnerable but without a strong opponent there is a strong chance he will be reelected.

I promise I will do a mop up job of fixing grammatical mistakes after I wake up for real and have some coffee in my system.

Anyway what are your thoughts on the competitive Senate races for the next election?  

The 2010 saga continues as Roy Blunt confirms what we have only suspected for 2 weeks or so. And he even has a reason to be running, to be an irrelevant roadblock.

Because Democrats are within two seats of holding a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, “there’s more focus on the fight in the Senate because the minority in the Senate has a bigger voice in the Senate than the minority in the House.”

“That’s a reason to go,” Blunt said of running a campaign to keep Bond’s seat in Republican hands.

It’s a fitting reason, considering Roy Blunt’s main achievement as a Congressman was getting into the leadership and presiding over giving George W. Bush whatever he wanted on a variety of topics.

Many Missouri political observers believe if Roy Blunt were to run for the seat, he would clear the field of possible Republican candidates to avoid a contentious primary.

Out of the candidates mentioned (Blunt, Kinder, Talent, Steelman, and Sam Graves), Blunt is the most likely to successfully nudge others out of the race. Although what you believe may not come to be. Out of the five mentioned, I could see a Blunt/Graves or Blunt/Steelman primary. In both cases, Blunt is the early favorite. But then again, Graves and Steelman have shown their willingness to use large blunt objects on their opponents.

As for a race for the open 7th District. Term-limited Senator Gary Nodler is a reasonable pick to run for the seat since he lost primaries for the seat in 1988 and 1996. Several Southwest Missouri House members are also term limited (such as Jim Viebrock, Ron Richard, Jay Wasson, Bob Dixon). Also, the Springfield media market makes up 3/4ths to 4/5ths of the voters so the safe bet is to bet on Springfield holding the seat. But if a Joplin candidate is nominated, the odds of picking up Greene County would be slightly better (don’t laugh, we’ve won Greene County in MO-7 before).

So in conclusion, should be a heck of an election season.

Pennsylvania-11

Lean Democrat –> Toss Up  

Pennsylvania-7

Solid Democrat <– Likely Democrat

New York-19

Solid Democrat <– Likely Democrat

Indiana-8

Solid Democrat <– Likely Democrat

Florida-25

Likely Republican –> Lean Republican

California-11

Lean Democrat <– Toss Up

Oklahoma-Senate

Solid Republican –> Likely Republican  

Nothing too surprising here.  Barletta has been pushing hard, I don’t think PA-07, NY-19, or IN-08 are on anyones radars.  

Nice to see Rice and Garcia making progress, while Cook is also seeing Andal’s laughable campaign in CA-11 fall apart.  

http://cookpolitical.com/ratin…

Of the 34 Senate seats up for re-election in 2010, nine can be considered safe for the time being.  These seats are:

MD – Mikulski (Likely retirement with Congressman Van Hollen receiving the Dem nomination).

IL – Obama (Should he win the presidency, his appointed successor should be someone who can win with moderates (Congresswoman Bean).  Should he not be elected president, Obama would be a safe bet for re-election.

AL – Shelby (Artur Davis may be interested in this race, but two things should come to mind: he represents a gerrymandered district and this is the Deep South).

IN – Bayh is simply popular at home.

ID – Crapo is representing a red state.

OR – Wyden is representing a really blue state.

NY – Schumer can raise money and win voters easily (The only possible sacrificial lamb, willing to go willingly, would be Peter King of Long Island, realizing that the Democrats will be redistricing him into more “immigrant friendly” territory come 2011 – one other Republican will also have the honor of being redistricted, due to New York projected to lose two congressional seats come 2010.  The question is not if Democrats will win the State Senate this year, yet more likely how many seats will they actually win).

SC – Demint (I encourage anyone to visit upstate where churches are the size of shopping malls.  This explains why Republicans still run the show here).

AK – Murkowski (Should the team of Young and Stevens lose, as expected, she will quickly join the reform side of the Alaskan Republican Party).

Now, the interesting match-ups (in no particular order):

NH – Gregg vs. Lynch (Gregg is too conservative for the state and Lynch is more popular.  Since the Old Man of the Mountain collapsed in 2003 the New Hampshire Republican Party has collapsed as well.  This is one of three states – Colorado and Virginia being the other – that have gone from solid red to purplish blue).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

AR – Lincoln vs. Huckabee (Both are popular, yet Huckabee has a larger profile.  Should Huckabee join the McCain team as VP and win, then Lincoln is safe.  Should that not occur then this could be one of the more interesting races of 2010).  Forecast: Toss Up

CA – Boxer vs. Issa (She’s liberal.  He’s overly conservative.  California is a split of both, however the populated areas are more liberal, thereby benefiting any Democrat.  Schwarzenegger is a failed governor and Dreir would be forced out of the closet, therefore Issa would be the most likely to challenge Boxer.  He has money, yet he also has a miserable voting record and may rightfully be considered one of the worst members of Congress).  Forecast: Safe Dem

IA – Vilsack vs. King (Grassley may retire for two reasons: being in the minority and being in a party dominated by Southern radicals.  Vilsack passed on running for president and King passed on running for Senate against Harkin.  King realizes trouble is on the horizon.  The state is expected to lose a congressional district in 2010 and all expect that King and Latham will find themselves battling eachother.  Rather than battle a fellow Republican, King may decide to continue his anti-immigration battle cry on the statewide level.  A certain loss indeed).  Forecast: Dem Pickup (if Grassley retires)

OK – Coburn vs. Henry (The fact is that there are more Democrats than Republicans statewide, yet the state is bright red in choosing its presidential candidates.  Should Henry challenge Coburn this will be a top tier race with Henry holding a slight advantage).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

FL – Martinez vs. Sink (Martinez is in trouble.  In fact, crossover non-Cuban Hispanic voters were partially responsible for his narrow victory last time.  Democrats realize that  success lies in the I-4 corridor (Daytona Beach-Orlando-Tampa area) where voters are more moderate than the conservative north – Jacksonville and Panhandle and the liberal south – Broward and Palm Beach.  Alex Sink, the state CFO, and wife of Bill McBride, a former Democratic candidate for governor, fits the perfect profile).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

VT – Douglas vs. Welch (Leahy may retire, yet only if Obama is elected.  Don’t expect Leahy to retire if McCain wins, he definately would want to be fully involved in fighting to keep a conservative from being appointed to the Supreme Court.  Should Leahy retire a match up between Governor Douglas, a Repubocrat in a dark blue state vs. Congressman Welch would be an interesting fight).  Forecast: Lean Dem

UT – Bishop vs. Matheson (Bennett will likely retire for reasons similar to Grassley.  This is the most conservative state in the nation.  However, Matheson has proven he can win in dark red territory and much of the state’s growth is occurring in his district.  Yet, this is Utah after all).  Forecast: Lean Rep

HI – Lingle vs. Abercrombie (Inouye is likely to retire.  Lingle is a popular Republican – yes they do exist in Hawaii, yet in small numbers.  Abercrombie has represented most of Oahu in the House.  There is no doubt that he wants to move to the Senate and he has waited around patiently, unlike former Congressman Case).  Forecast: Toss Up

NC – Burr vs. McIntyre (The best way to describe Burr’s tenure would be an utter failure and polls agree.  McIntyre who represents a mainly rural agricultural district and retains a conservative voting record, would be the best challenge to Burr.  Should this occur consider Burr endangered).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

CO – Salazar vs. Tancredo (Anyone who thinks that “wingnut” Tancredo was retiring is mistaken.  Tancredo is looking for higher office: Governor or Senate.  His failed presidential bid was intended to raise his profile and his anti-immigration rhetoric, yet it was an utter disaster at best.  Sec. of State Coffman is running for Tancredo’s open seat and would be unlikely to change chairs after two years.  The only other two Republicans that come to mind would be “wingnuts” Lamborn and Musgrave.  Colorado’s entire Republican delegation are “wingnuts” and would be serious underdogs to Salazar).  Forecast: Safe Dem

OH – Voinovich vs. Ryan (Can also be considered the future vs. the past, old vs. young, old school vs. new school, etc.  Ryan presents a serious challenge to Voinovich.  Should the seats of Pryce, Chabot, Schmidt, and Regula fall into Democratic hands, then expect Voinovich to call an early retirement.  Maybe Boehner, after a Republican coup d’etat, may want to try his hands at dispatching Ryan – highly unlikely, but a good way into early retirement after a terrible tenure as Republican leader).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

WA – Murray vs. Reichert (Reichert is a moderate and can bring in moderate voters along with the conservative eastern part of the state.  However, Murray will be in the majority party and be able to deliver an abundance of resources into the state, including into Walla Walla and Wenatchee.  Conservative no longer).  Forecast: Safe Dem

KY – Chandler vs. Davis (Bunning says he is running for re-election.  The GOP will change his mind fairly quickly after the post-election losses of 2008.  Chandler is popular and known statewide.  He represents a conservative rural district.  Davis represents a moderate to conservative suburban district.  Rural vs. suburban in Kentucky.  Rural wins).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

AZ – Napolitano vs. Flake (If McCain wins she gets to choose his Republican successor.  The weakest candidate would be Russell Pearce, his xenophobia and radical views would make him an easy defeat.  Should McCain not win the presidency, expect him to resign, unlike Kerry.  Even if he did not resign, a radical such as Pearce, would most certainly force him into a primary.  McCain would not want to face a similar defeat as McGovern – two presidential defeats only to face further embarrasment in having your Senate seat taken.  Flake is conservative, but is also one of the more respected members of Congress.  While many would give the edge to Napolitano, this is a race that could be competitive once voters become familiar with Flake.  Forecast: Lean Dem  

CT – Shays vs. Blumenthal (Dodd is likely to retire.  Blumenthal has always been considered a gubernatorial candidate, yet passed up every opportunity.  Both understand that it is moderate independents and not liberal Democrats that determine statewide victors.  Shays represents the cities of Stamford and Norwalk, both of which he, Rell, and Lieberman won.  Blumenthal resides in Greenwich, yet him and Shays appear to have a friendly working relationship, therefore making a race against eachother unlikely.  Republican contenders in place of Shays would be US Attorney Kevin O’Connor, a Bush appointee and someone who worked closely with Alberto Gonzales, or Lt. Gov. Fedele, a resident of Stamford).  Forecast: Likely Dem

ND – Dorgan vs. Hoeven (Hoeven passed up an opportunity to challenge Conrad this year.  He is popular statewide and would have been a formible challenge.  Should he run against Dorgan this would be a closely watched race).  Forecast: Toss Up    

LA – Alexander vs. Melancon (Vitter, the candidate of family values, will be presented with three options: voluntary retirement, a challenging primary, or a general election defeat.  Neither are a winning strategy, yet if Melancon is the Democratic nominee, the centrist Democrat would have broad appeal throughout the conservative areas of the state.  Alexander, the former Democrat, would find it difficult to differentiate himself from the more challenging Melancon).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

WI – Feingold vs. Ryan (Feingold is liberal.  Ryan is conservative.  Ryan is a rising star in the Republican Party, at least what is left of the party.  Wisconsin is not necessarily a blue state and many are not as liberal as Feingold.  Ryan would be a formible opponent, yet Feingold would be able to exploit his majority status.  This is a race that could heat up in the end).  Forecast: Likely Dem

GA – Isakson vs. Marshall (Isakson wanted to run for Governor, then saw the polls and decided not to.  The same polls show that he is not necessarily a popular Senator.  Congressman Marshall represents a Republican district and would be able to win over Republicans elsewhere throughout the state.  Isakson could be in trouble, even in peachy Georgia).  Forecast: Toss Up

KS – Sebelius vs. Tiahrt (Brownback has already announced that he’s retiring.  Sebelius may represent a red state, yet she is extremely popular, and has assisted the Republican Party with its ongoing implosion.  Congressman Tiahrt or Moran could challenge Sebelius, yet both would be at a great disadvantage.  Forecast: Dem Pickup

SD – Rounds vs. Herseth (Thune may run for Governor.  Rounds and Herseth are both popular and would make this an extremely tight race.  Should Thune pass up a run for governorship, then expect this seat to remain in Republican hands.  Should it be a Rounds vs. Herseth match then a close race would be on the horizon).  Forecast: Safe Rep/Toss Up

TX – Dewhurst vs. Lampson (Hutchinson is expected to run for Governor.  If Hutchinson resigns early, then expect Lt. Gov. Dewhurst to be appointed to the seat, rather than a drawn out primary costing the Republican ambitions in retaining the governorship.  Lampson, a conservative Democrat, would have cross-over appeal.  A win in November would be a guarantee that he could win on the state level.  Other Democrats with cross-over appeal who have potential would be Congressmen Chet Edwards, Jim Turner, or Martin Frost.  All have substantial funds for any future race.  Forecast: Likely Rep

PA – Rendell vs. Gerlach (Specter most likely will retire.  If he does not retire, then expect it to be a Schwartz vs. Specter race, Rendell will not challenge Specter due to their close relationship.  Should Specter retire then expect Rendell to be the top recruit on the Democratic side.  Congressman Gerlach or Dent could challenge Rendell, yet both would be at a serious disadvantage.  Former Republican strongholds, Montgomery and Bucks Counties, are now majority Democratic.  A Montgomery County race, Schwartz vs. Gerlach, would be the most interesting race of all).  Forecast: Dem Pickup

MO – Bond vs. Robin Carnahan (Missouri is a middle of the road state, ultra conservative in Springfield and liberal in Saint Louis.  Sec. of State Robin Carnahan could put the family name to good use and continue the winning trend – her father was governor, mother was US Senator, and brother is a current congressman.  Should she challenge Bond, then expect an extremely close race.  Forecast: Toss Up

NV – Reid vs. Porter (Reid may be Majority Leader, yet his popularity at home is weak.  However he is more popular than current Governor Gibbons, if that provides any consolation.  Congressman Porter is facing a tight re-election this year and he is fully aware that Reid provided assistance in recruiting Titus as a strong challenger.  Porter will be seeking revenge, win or lose.  With the current ongoing Gibbons scandal expect the state GOP to take a little beating).  Forecast: Lean Dem

There are three Portland-based, general circulation newspapers: The Oregonian, The Willamette Week, and the Portland Mercury*. The number of times they've all endorsed the same candidate for a major office recently can probably be counted on one hand (or less!), but when it comes to the Democratic nomination for Senate, they're in perfect harmony: they want the guy with the hook.

We covered The O's big Sunday endorsement of Steve; let's add in the others. First, Willamette Week, whose nod may certainly have been less of a surprise than that from the House of Stickel, but which comes on the heels of a joint endorsement interview Novick's critics–and even some supporters–mark as his low moment of the campaign. The ed board may or may not have liked Novick's answers on the peripheral questions of the race, but they liked Merkley's issue positions even less, making note of three separate areas of "concern."

In the end, the editors appear happily surprised to have Novick exceed their expectations to become a legitimate, solid candidate with the potential for greatness:

Let’s be clear. Back in January 2007, Novick was little more than a placeholder. Novick has a rapier wit, a winning affinity for sports references and an impressive behind-the-scenes résumé working for worthy causes. But Oregonians were waiting for another, more credible Democratic challenger to Smith, a telegenic senator who’s raised boatloads of cash and worked to style himself in the moderate image of past Republican icons such as Mark Hatfield, Bob Packwood and Tom McCall. We all thought that other person would come along.

We were hotly divided between the fun, speak-his-mind insurgent who calls to mind the late Sen. Paul Wellstone and the impassive Merkley, who calls to mind the widely respected Sen. Al Gore—the wooden version, before he became as steaming as the planet.

In the end, we rallied around Novick because we see a capacity for a refreshing independence and an unwavering willingness to tackle our toughest issues, like providing universal health care and ending the war in Iraq. We recognize, too, he could be a spectacular failure, a quotable firebrand for the left who is both alienating and alienated. Our hope is he commits himself to becoming the Senate’s best workhorse before shooting for the ranks of Sunday talk-show showhorse. Novick, please play nice.

 {the Merc's endorsement, and even bigger swipe at Merkley, below}  

 Near the bottom of a long list of City endorsees, in today's issue The Merc gets to the statewide races and makes their call for Senate:

We've gone back and forth on this endorsement for weeks. Were we choosing the candidate who would make the best US Senator, or were we picking the one best suited to topple formidable Republican Gordon Smith—someone who'd put up a better fight, even if they weren't ultimately successful?  

Finally, we realized that attorney and political activist Steve Novick is the best choice on both counts. Not only will he give Smith the toughest challenge—just look at the momentum he's got against Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley, a solid political leader, and the guy plenty of Democrats assumed would be coronated as the nominee—but assuming he wins in November (and we're starting to believe he can), we're excited to see what he'd do in DC.

At first, we thought his campaign was heavy on schtick—relying on viral ads highlighting Novick's steel hook prosthetic left hand—and short on evidence that Novick would be an effective representative for Oregon. But as the campaign has heated up, we're pleased to see that Novick's record on things like taking on the Oregon Lottery Commission to fight for more school funding has translated well to federal policy issues—we have no doubt that Novick will be a strong advocate to end the war, create universal health care, and help the working class.

The brainy Novick's penchant for saying exactly what's on his mind has gotten him in trouble a few times, but it's apparent that he's learning to temper that impulse. That said, he'll continue to do things differently, in a way that makes you wonder why more politicians don't follow his lead. Meanwhile, his opponents like Candy Neville and Jeff Merkley are virtually on the same page when it comes to agendas and policy positions. Smith, however, would trounce Neville. While Merkley would likely be a solid senator, given his track record leading Democrats in Salem, we're just not that into him. Vote for Novick. [emph me]

Ouch. Leave it to the Merc to put out there as plainly as possible: Jeff Merkley just does not inspire many people, or make them believe that he has the potential for greatness. This is an election to get excited about making real change, and Merkley is coming up short. 

What's the practical value of these endorsements? Hard to say, although there is certainly some kind of benefit to having all three major papers backing the same guy (especially, as I said above, when they generally don't agree). Veteran OR politico Charlie Burr thinks he has an idea of their impact, however, and he states it in comments at BlueOregon:

The Mercury endorsements will matter more than usual this year for the same reason WWeek's will: 30,000 new voters registered by the Oregon Obama campaign. The Obama campaign may have registered them, but these new voters will still be looking for additional cues for other races on their ballots.

 

 You do have to figure that particularly with these latest two, the demographic skews towards younger voters. And with a lot more younger voters in the mix who cannot WAIT to vote in this primary, there's no question that seeing Novick's name downticket in the endorsement will help shade some of those folks–who may be so jazzed about the Pres race that they haven't been following some others–towards Steve. Nothing wrong with that!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*The Portland Tribune obviously exists as well, but for the purposes of endorsement the Pamplin ownership group makes a blanket call for all its papers in the area; and while there are other papers publishing in Portland, they are aimed at specific rather than general audiences.

From  Sunday’s Oregonian, the state’s largest paper–serving about 1 in 10 Oregonians:

For Democratic Senate nominee: Steve Novick

Oregon Democrats have long coveted the seat of Sen. Gordon Smith, the only Republican currently holding statewide office. They consider him vulnerable because of the way he has supported the policies of an unpopular president while managing to rile many in his party. And in a year in which Democrats are expected to gain ground in Congress, they just may be right.

We think the candidate they should send to face Smith is, in some ways, the unlikeliest one of all: Steve Novick, an Ivy League lawyer who stands 4′-9″ and has a hook instead of a left hand.

This choice is unorthodox not just because of Novick’s remarkable personal characteristics and history, but because the Democratic Party establishment is supporting another solid candidate, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Merkley launched his campaign after other prominent Oregon Democrats decided not to undertake the rigors and risks of a race against a well-heeled incumbent.

 

{ the closer, below}

Merkley has been everything Oregonians could want in a House speaker. Even his opponents harbor him little ill-will, crediting him with restoring a measure of civility to a divided chamber. But watching this campaign, Democrats may want to take a sharper course.

Novick is an unusual man with an unusual resume — characteristics that some suggest aren’t suited to the U.S. Senate. But we think his passion, his intellect and his personal style give him an intriguing combination of qualities that most senators don’t possess.

We think Novick represents a bold choice for Democrats who seek to dislodge a veteran incumbent. He has the potential to press Smith as he has done Merkley. And, should he pull off what would be a major electoral upset and go to Washington as the new junior senator from Oregon, he has the potential to make Oregonians proud.

Whatever you may think of The O’s board, the value of their endorsement, or their winning percentage, they certainly understand what Steve’s approach is and why it looks so appealing to a lot of people. “Passion, intellect and personal style” is a good way to wrap it up.

They also recognize the strange and magnificient electoral cycle we’re in, and the possibilities for a more sweeping change that brings us better Democrats, not more Democrats. More straight talk, less parsing. A return to greater equity between work and wealth, people and corporations. A decency towards all men and women, and a fierce revival of the keystones of our American goverment–privacy, freedom, peace through defensive strength and strong diplomacy, and economic justice.

For Democratic Senate nominee: Steve Novick

You bet your ass. One can never tell what the impact of a newspaper endorsement will be, and I think most would agree that their influence has steadily declined over the years.

However, The O is still the Pacific Northwest’s largest circulating paper according to Wikipedia, and stands as the established media’s preeminent presence in the state. Had the paper chosen Merkley I think most would have written it off as the expected move; that they were seemingly so impressed by Novick during his interview (and I did hear from witnesses that he absolutely crushed it) is rather more notable. It’s always more of a story when the nontraditional candidate gets the nod, and this endorsement is no different.

By my count, that gives Novick:

*The most coveted individual (fmr gov Kitzhaber)

*The most coveted organization (Oregon Education Association)

*The most coveted newspaper (Oregonian)

*The coolest endorsement to “the kids” (Michael Stipe of REM, Stone Gossard of Pearl Jam, and a number of others)

With just a week until ballots are delivered, and less than a month until they are counted, Novick appears to be gaining momentum for victory.  

Senate Republicans

1. Virginia***

Former Governor Mark Warner v. Former Governor Jim Gilmore

Total Raised — $6,300,000 v. $402,000

Cash On Hand – $4,380,000 v. $208,000

(Likely Democratic Pick-up)

2. New Mexico***

Representative Tom Udall v. Representative Steven Pearce

Total Raised — $2,604,000 v. $1,395,000

Cash On Hand – $2,600,000 v. $854,000

(Lean Democratic Pick-up)

3. New Hampshire

Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen v. Incumbent Senator John Sununu

Total Raised — $2,566,000v. $4,143,000

Cash On Hand – $2,000,000 v. $4,300,000

(Lean Democratic Pick-up)

4. Colorado***

Representative Mark Udall v. Former Representative Bob Schaffer

Total Raised — $3,751,000 v. $3,191,000

Cash On Hand – $3,606,000 v. $2,200,000

(Lean Democratic Pick-up)

———————————————————————

5. Alaska

Mayor Mark Begich v. Incumbent Senator Ted Stevens

Total Raised — $280,000 v. $2,071,000

Cash On Hand – $250,000 v. $1,300,000

(Toss Up)

6. Minnesota

Al Franken v. Incumbent Senator Norm Coleman

Total Raised — $9,359,000 v. $8,640,000

Cash On Hand – $3,500,000 v. $7,000,000

(Toss Up)

7. Oregon

State Speaker Jeff Merkley v. Incumbent Senator Gordon Smith

Total Raised — $1,371,000v. $4,274,000

Cash On Hand — $474,000 v. $5,100,000

(Toss Up)

8. Maine

Representative Tom Allen v. Incumbent Senator Susan Collins

Total Raised — $3,656,000 v. $5,068,000

Cash On Hand – $2,700,000 v. $4,500,000

(Toss Up)

———————————————————————

9. North Carolina

State Senator Kay Hagan v. Incumbent Senator Liddy Dole

Total Raised — $562,000 v. $4,855,000

Cash On Hand – $515,000 v. $2,664,000

(Lean Republican Retention)(12/31/07 Fundraising Numbers)

10. Mississippi-B***

Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove v. Representative Roger Wicker

Total Raised — $448,000 v. $3,000,000

Cash On Hand – $337,000 v. $2,750,000

(Lean Republican Retention)

———————————————————————

11. Oklahoma

State Senator Andrew Rice v. Incumbent Senator James Inhofe

Total Raised — $970,000 v. $3,168,000

Cash On Hand – $597,000 v. $2,221,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

12. Idaho***

Former Congressman Larry LaRocco v. Lieutenant Governor James Risch

Total Raised — $555,000 v. $1,129,000

Cash On Hand – $253,000 v. $935,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

———————————————————————

13. Georgia

State Representative Jim Martin v. Incumbent Senator Saxby Chambliss

Total Raised — $346,000 v. $4,407,000

Cash On Hand – $333,000 v. $3,637,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

14. Kansas

Former Congressman Jim Slattery v. Incumbent Senator Pat Roberts

Total Raised — $289,000 v. $3,205,323

Cash On Hand – $286,000 v. $2,986,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

15. Nebraska***

Scott Kleeb v. Former Governor Mike Johanns

Total Raised — $274,000 v. $2,018,000

Cash On Hand – $281,000 v. $1,330,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

16. Kentucky

Bruce Lunsford v. Incumbent Senator Mitch McConnell

Total Raised — $808,000 v. $7,908,000

Cash On Hand – $666,000 v. $7,741,000

(Likely Republican Retention)

Senate Democrats

1. Louisiana

Incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu v. State Treasurer John Kennedy

Total Raised — $5,447,000 v. $1,907,000

Cash On Hand – $4,564,000 v. $1,623,000

(Likely Democratic Retention)

Notes:

– *** = Open Seat

– I separated the two parties and their respective competitive/potentially competitive races  

– I rounded all the fundraising numbers down to the nearest $1,000

– North Carolina doesn’t report fundraising numbers till 4/24/08

– DSCC and NRSC haven’t made public their March fundraising numbers

– The long lines are to breakdown the tiers that I see the Senate races in.  

– I am trying to predict the spending of the DSCC and NRSC when providing my projected outcome – I don’t believe in saying, “Well, if the election were held today…” because if the election were held today, that means for the past two months we’d be getting commercials from both sides.  Simple as that.  

Democratic Offensive

Tier 1 = VA, NM, NH, CO

Tier 2 = AK, MN, OR, ME

Tier 3 = NC, MS

Tier 4 = OK, ID

Tier 5 = GA, KS, NE, KY

Republican Offensive

Tier 1 = LA

Overview

– 6 Republican Senators Retired (CO, ID, MS, NE, NM, VA)

– Republican Seats: 1 Likely Dem Pickup – 3 Lean Dem Pickup – 4 Toss Ups – 2 Lean Rep Retention – 6 Likely Rep Retention – 7 Safe Reps

– Democratic Seats: 1 Lean Dem Retention – 11 Safe Dems

– Current Breakdown of the US Senate: 51D – 49R

– Prediction = 6-9 Democratic Pickups in the US Senate

– Projected Breakdown of the US Senate: 59D – 41R

Fundraising for the Respective Committees(2/29/08)

DSCC v. NRSC

Total Raised — $64,100,000 v. $39,300,000

Cash On Hand – $32,800,000 v. $15,300,000

(I figured this was big enough news to promote, and, since David Kowalski laid out the details, I saw no point in writing a separate post that repeated the same information. – promoted by The Caped Composer)

Anne Estabrook, a multi-millionaire developer and the frontrunner for the Republican nomination for the US Senate in New Jersey abruptly dropped out on Tuesday morning after suffering a mini stroke on Monday.  Estabrook had already contributed $1.6 million towards the Senate race and was considered the heavy favorite for the Republican nomination.

Her departure leaves two active Republican candidates, inflammatory state senator Joe Pennachio and college professor/gadfly Murray Sabin (Sabrin?).  There may be pressure from the state’s GOP establishment to come up with a name opponent at this point.  Just my own speculation but in relative order candidates might include former Governor Christie Todd Whittman, the state’s US Attorney Chris Christie (good to see him sent packing), retiring US Rep Mike Ferguson, former Senate candidate Tom Keane, Jr. or even one of the south Jersey Reps like Chris Smith or Frank LoBiondo.

Christie has gone from prosecuting all politicians to picking only on Democrats to save his job from Karl Rove’s threatened sacking.  I’d love to see Lautenberg puncture his pompousity like a pus-filled pinata.  If Jerseyans have poor opinions of their politicians, Chrisitie is a leading contributor. (So are some of the talk radio stations in the state and the vicious tone of the political blog at the Star Ledger.  Republicans have no answers but in this state they are nasty, personal, and bullying.)

Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez has scheduled a press conference for tomorrow morning where he is expected to announce his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat now held by the retiring Pete Domenici. Chavez would be the first big name Democrat to enter the race.

Good news?  Bad news?  This will be debated heavily between bloggers and Democrats, as noted in the article:

Chavez has had major problems with the large progressive wing of the Democratic Party. They have been banding behind Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott who has pledged $400,000 of his own cash for the race. Can Chavez heal the wounds and start unifying the party, or will more candidates get in and complicate the matter and snare the Mayor in a bloody battle?

Article Here: http://www.coldheart…

What do you guys think?  In comparison to Wiviott, the only other Democratic challenger, I feel Chavez is a step forward on beating Heather Wilson and a step back on policy, although that cannot really be decided until he sets his platform. 

I should note that personally, I feel we should sport strong challengers to try to attain the big 60, then work on electing better US Senators.  Until we have 60, I feel that Republicans have too much power in the Senate. 

As most people know, going from state/local politics to national politics is a big leap on different issues, so time will tell where Chavez stands, although he has been mayor of Albequerque for awhile, and has amassed some sense of principles on general issues. 

Also, it is noteworthy that Albequerque is the heart of Heather Wilson’s Congressional District, which is seen as the base for her Senate race.