Sunday Senate Chat

Hello everyone, It has been a long long while since I have posted here on SwingStateproject and due to the lack of posting/sleep I figured it would be nice to write up a little summary of how the 2010 Senate races look about a year out and take a closer look at how things may look further down the road.

So far from what I can tell there are 5 Democratic seats that are vulnerable and another 6 Republican Seats that are vulnerable.

Our Democratic Incumbents that face a stiff challenge in 2010.

AR-Sen: (Lean Republican) Senator Blanche Lincoln is polling very weak back home in Arkansas as James post from last week clearly shows.  http://www.swingstateproject.c…

To make the situation worse shes polling badly against virtual unknowns. This race kind of surpirses me since Senator Lincoln was able to win in 2004 with a solid 56-44 as Former (can’t say that enough) President Bush won the state by roughly the same margin. I think the Senator has a serious base problem on both sides. The Democratic base is likely turned off by her flip-flop on the Public Option in the heatlh care while the Republican base in this southern state is likely more energized. This is also one of the few states where President Obama did worse the Senator Kerry in the last presidential election. If I had to pick any incumbent democrat that I thought would go down next election I would place my bets on Senator Lincoln.

CO-Sen: (No Clear Favorite) The question here is will the Democratic primary hurt or help? My personal guess is hurt. Andrew Romanoff the former speaker of the Colorado House is running to challenge the appointed incumbent Senator Michael Bennet. I haven’t seen to many polls for the primary or general election in this state. Rassmussen had a poll about two weeks ago that had the likely Republican nominee Former Lietenant Governor Jane Norton defeating both Democrats (surprise, surprise) http://www.swingstateproject.c…

The Good news for Bennett however is that he is going into this race with a decent financial advantage over the NRSCs newest recruit. Romanoff could prove a problem but I have a feeling that deciding to run to the right of the incumbent Democrat in the Democratic primary is the nail in the coffin for his campaign.

CT-Sen: (No Clear Favorite)

Senator Dodd is in trouble allright. The countrywide scandal isn’t likely to go away anytime soon (no doubt Dodd must be contemplating stabbing Micheal Moore). The Republicans are likely to run on the countrywide scandal and nothing else. While useing scandal as an evasion for providing ideas has proven to work as an effective way of running a campaign in some cases, it might not work here simply becuase of how democratic Connecticut is. One asset Dodd has going for him is that the Senate Ethics commitee cleared him of any wrongdoing which will work well for him in the ad wars. Dodds polling is also on a rebound (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1374) after having been in the tank for several monthes however he still has a lot of work ahead of him if he plans on getting reelected. The likely republican candidate is fomrer Represenatative Rob Simmons.

NV-Sen (No Clear Favorite)

Sen. Harry Reid the guy who beat his opponent by a 2-1 margin in 2004 and rose to become the leader of the democratic caucus is now in the fight of his politcal carrier. Senator Reids position is comparable to that of Senator Lincolns in Arkansas. Both are trailing virtual unknowns. However both have the triditional advantages of incumbency and the money that comes with that. There are only 2 ways I see Reid getting saved between now and next year. 1. He starts winning some legislative victories for his caucus and party or 2. He follows the Corzine (NJ-GOV) Strategy of throwing the kitchen sink and everyone thing else a 8-figure campaign warchest can throw.

PA-Sen: (Lean Democratic) Senator Specters recent change of heart at the sight of polling showing him getting crushed in the Republican primary has not been as easy of a transition as the senator would have liked. Specter is polling dead even with his Republican rival Former Congressman Pat Tomney. Senator Specter also has to watch his left flank where Congressman Joe Sestak is running a tough campaign to defeat Senator Specter in the democratic primary.

Republicans:

KY-Sen (Lean Republican) With Senator Bunning out of the running the democratic hopes for an easy pickup have been dashed and replaced with a competitive open seat fight. The major Democratic candidates are Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo. Mongiardo this week caught a little bit of the shoe in foot while recorder in room disease last week http://www.swingstateproject.c… While this might not be the nail in the coffin for his campaign it certainly isn’t helpful to tell your boss you expect him to fail at this job and you are not interested in the office you are seeking. The Republican frontrunner in both the general and priamry elections by small margins is Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Taking Grayson on in the Republican primary is Son of the libertarian movements hero Rand Paul. I would personally like to see Conway vs. Paul and I think that would be the best scenario for democrats in this race.

LA-Sen: (Lean Republican) Senator Vitter would be a okay if he could have stayed out of the moral hypocracy zone. Sadly for Senator Vitter the democrats have found the one candidate that can give him a decent challenge, Congressman Charlie Melancon of the 3rd district is running.

Senator Vitter will need to rely on the same strategy as Senator Dodd and hope that the Republican lean of his state will help him survive scandal.

MO-Sen: (Lean Democratic) Senator Bond of Missouri has announced his intentions to retire which has opened up his senate seat. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is running on the democratic side and has the primary locked up at the moment. Meanwhile Congressman Roy Blunt has also locked up his parties nomination. It doesn’t look like either side will have the fun of a competitive primary in this state. The head to heads have generaly shown Carnahan with modest leads over Blunt.

OH-Sen: (No Clear Favorite) Lt. Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner are leading the charge for democrats in there aim to take back Ohios remaining GOP senate seat. With Republican Senator George Voinovich retiring, republicans have turned to one of the worst places to recruit potential candidates, the bush adminisration. Former congressman and trade rep. Rob Portman has the republican primary locked up. Most head to heads show both Fisher and Brunner with slight leads over Portman. In the Democratic primary it looks like Fisher should be considered the favorite due to a large financial advantage.

NH-Sen:(No Clear Favorite)

This is another state where the Republican incument (Senator Judd Gregg) has retired and both parties have allready selected there nominees for the office. The Republicans have nominated appointed Attorney General Kelly Ayotte while the Democrats have nominated Congressman Paul Hodes. The polling on this race shows a close match up. It is to early to tell which of these two will end up winning however Ms. Ayottes constant dodging of questions related to critical issues certainly is not helping her cause.

Other races that could become competitive:

Illinois: Waiting to see if Mark Kirk can avoid a tough challenge from the right and if he wins how well he polls after the primary.

Florida: If Floridas economic troubles can start being blamed on its governor like the other states have started doing then Crists bid for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martinez may face some opposition.

North Caroinla: The Democrats problem here is that they cannot get a strong candidate to announce. It is quite clear that Senator Burr is vulnerable but without a strong opponent there is a strong chance he will be reelected.

I promise I will do a mop up job of fixing grammatical mistakes after I wake up for real and have some coffee in my system.

Anyway what are your thoughts on the competitive Senate races for the next election?