Tag: US House

Analyzing the midterm elections gets easier the closer it gets to the actual vote. What I'm going to do is take a look at the midterm elections of other Presidents.  

Lyndon Johnson's only midterm resulted in a huge loss for Democrats, 48 seats were lost, but Democrats still held a commanding majority of 247. Lyndon Johnson's landslide victory in 1964 initiated many gains for Democrats in the House, 36 seats, so much of the 1966 midterm was a fall from a previous over performance.  

Jimmy Carter's only midterm results in very moderate losses for Democrats, 15 to be exact. This is an example of a very routine midterm, there was not a lot of satisfaction with how things were going, but there wasn't big movement in voting.

 Ronald Reagan's first midterm resulted in 26 seats lost for Republicans, but at the same time Republicans held on to the Senate, which had a Republican majority due to Reagan's large victory in 1980.

 Fast forward to 1994 and Bill Clinton's midterm, which resulted in the disastrous loss of 54 seats to Republicans. The electorate was dissatisfied and you had an organized Republican opposition that people felt they could take a chance on.

The popular vote numbers for each of these elections  

1966: D-50%, R-49%  

1978: D-53%, R-44%  

1982: D-54%, R-43%

1994:R-47%, D-44%

 As you can see, the popular vote margins don't necessarily reflect how small or large party's losses will be, which is why generic polling isn't a great indicator about how things will go, but I am factoring it in just a bit to help me gauge the terrain. Another thing to factor in is that Democrats survived a few midterms because they had huge enough room to drop some seats and still be in the driver's seat. Right now, Democrats hold an overall majority that is slightly less than they had before the 1994 midterm. To the board now (purple means toss-ups). The second and third columns are in no real particular order of vulnerability.  

 

TN-6	AL-2	NJ-6
LA-3	ID-1	CT-4
AR-2	VA-11	NJ-12
NY-29	NM-1	WI-3
OH-1	NJ-3	UT-2
OH-15	WV-1	NC-2
IN-8	MO-4	MO-3
KS-3	PA-12	IL-8
VA-5	TX-23	CA-20
IN-9	NY-13	CA-47
TN-8	PA-4	KY-6
VA-2	MA-10	IN-2
FL-8	NY-23	MN-1
NH-2	VA-9	NY-20
MS-1	CT-5	NY-25
WA-3	OR-5	TN-4
NH-1	WV-3	RI-1
FL-24	OH-18	OH-6
PA-10	CA-11	GA-12
AR-1		NY-1
NM-2		OR-1
PA-7		PA-17
IL-11		IA-1
PA-3		KY-3
MI-1		CA-18
PA-11		MI-9
SC-5		CO-7
TX-17
AZ-1
AZ-5
WI-8
NY-24
MD-1
ND-AL
SD-AL
FL-2
IL-14
WI-7
CO-4
MI-7
NV-3
NY-19
FL-22
PA-8
IA-3
GA-8
OH-16
OH-13
IL-17
CO-3
NC-8

 

That’s 26 seats that are likely loses and 22 more on the cusp. If the Republicans do remarkably well and sweep every seat between postions 1 and 44 without losing any of their own, they have a majority of 222, but here is the catch. At least 3 GOP-held seats are about certain to flip Democratic, with another on the cusp and one or maybe two more edging toward that. If they only lose three of those seat (DE-AL, HI-1, LA-2) the Republicans will right at 219 and the Democrats at 216. If Dan Seals is successful in IL-10, then it’s 218-217, which is basically a hung Congress (like a hung Parliament), the GOP has a majority, but it’s not solid enough to do much. Of course, the GOP  probably won’t win all the toss-ups and could miss some seats on the solid flip list.

I predict they will get no less than 22 of the seats that look best for them and get half the toss-ups for an overall gain of 32. Minus the 4 seats leaning Democratic, it’s a gain of 28. The toss-up wins could be more and there may be more wild cards that pop up. Overall, the GOP would have to run the table on everything that is out there, plus grab some extras. 226-206 is my current prediction, give or take a number. If the election does somehow turn out to be 218-217 for either side, Capitol Hill will be one mess of gridlock.

crossposted at StochasticDemocracy and DailyKos

These are the Labor Day election forecasts of Stochastic Democracy, in collaboration with Professor Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium. We  have launched a new Election Forecasting System for House, Senate and Gubernatorial Elections and for tracking the Generic Ballot.

But before we discuss the forecasts in more detail, let me first get out of the way who we are and why you should listen to what we’re predicting:

Who we are (quoted from the FAQ at our site):

The team consists of David Shor, Harry Enten, and Rasmus Pianowski. David is a Math student currently visiting Princeton University as a Visiting Graduate Student. Harry is an undergraduate at Dartmouth and an intern at Pollster.com. Rasmus (that’s me) is a freshman at University of Hamburg, he has done political consulting and Media Outreach work for Montana congressional candidate Tyler Gernant.

The site is closely affiliated to Professor Wang’s Princeton Election Consortium.

Why you should listen to us

We have an outstanding track record.

In 2008, we correctly predicted the results of 49 of the 50 states in the Presidential Election, missing only Indiana (where we predicted that Obama had a 48% chance to win). We correctly predicted every single Senate and Gubernatorial election, and were off on the national popular vote for President by only 0.08%..

We also predicted that Obama would get 364 Electoral Votes, he ended up with 365 Electoral Votes.

In 2009, we correctly predicted the outcome of the 2009 Israeli Knesset election as well as 4 of the 5 notoriously hard to predict 2009 off-year elections- Pollster.com got only 2 correct, 538.com didn’t even put up predictions.

And we have a solid forecasting methodology that combines advanced statistical techniques with a huge polling database- and we do account for House Effects, so that you can be sure that our ratings aren’t swayed by Republican-leaning Rasmussen Reports polls too much.

Now on to the Forecasts.

Let me get out the bad news, and there is a lot of bad news, quickly:

The GOP is favored to take over the House, several Senate seats and Governorships.

For a complete list of election results, please visit Stochastic Democracy, here you’ll only find an analysis of several important races, maps and tables with results for select races.

Senate

As you can see, things look rather badly for the Democrats on the Senate front. While Republicans seem like relatively heavy underdogs to get a majority in the Senate, they at least will pick up several seats.

Arkansas, North Dakota, Indiana and Delaware are gone. With deficits of more than 15% in even the closest of these four races, it doesn’t make much sense to keep fighting except for helping down-ballot races.

In Pennsylvania, Joe Sestak has a fighting chance to mount yet another comeback, but so far his campaign hasn’t really taken off and with less than two months to go until the election he’s down against Pat Toomey by a bit less than 6%.

Colorado is close right now, even though the Republican candidate Ken Buck is ahead by a bit more than three points right now. The infighting among Colorado Conservatives in the Gubernatorial race might help Bennet to catch up.

In Florida the race is all but officially between incumbent Governor Charlie Crist, the Republican-turned Independent, and Tea Party favorite, Marco Rubio. The Democratic candidate Kendrick Meek has just about a 1 in 200 chance to win, while Rubio maintains a 4.5 point-advantage over Crist. The race is so unstable though that Crist can easily come back- or collapse.

In all other races, the incumbent party is currently favored (more or less) to retain their seats. For the Republicans, that means that Rob Portman (OH), Roy Blunt (MO), Rand Paul (KY), Richard Burr (NC) and the winner of the New Hampshire GOP primary (probably Kelly Ayotte) will more likely than not win.

The likely Democratic winners include Harry Reid (NV), Alexi Gianoullias (IL), Barbara Boxer (CA), Russ Feingold (WI)and Joe Manchin (WV), who is so heavily favored to retain the late Senator Byrd’s seat that this race doesn’t show up in the ‘most likely pickups’ table. On the other hand, Gianoullias, Reid and Feingold are all in races that could still go either way, even though they’re favored over their respective opponents right now.

Gubernatorial races

In the gubernatorial races, there are a few more highlights for Democrats, even though the bottom line looks rather bleak for Democrats here as well.

We are almost sure to lose six Governorships to the Republicans: In Kansas, Michigan, Iowa, Tennessee, Pennsylvania and Illinois. In every of those races except for Illinois, the Republican candidate is ahead by double digits, and most likely less than two months won’t be enough to close that gap.

On the bright side, we’re also almost certain to pick up the Governorships of Hawaii, Minnesota and Connecticut.

Maine is a race that doesn’t qualify as a ‘sure loss’ yet, but it doesn’t look good for Democrats, as Republican Paul LePage is leading Democrat Libby Mitchell by more than 8 points.

In the close battleground races it currently looks like Republican John Kasich is going to unseat incumbent Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio, Kasich is currently ahead by 4 points. The same could be said of New Mexico‘s gubernatorial race, where Republican Susana Martinez is favored to beat the Democratic Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish. Both of these races are close enough for Strickland and Denish to mount a comeback though.

Meanwhile, Democrats look like slight favorites in the gubernatorial elections of Florida, where Democrat Alex Sink leads the scandal-ridden Republican nominee Rick Scott, and in Rhode Island, where Democrat Frank Caprio is a slight favorite to win the governorship, edging former independent U.S. Senator Lincoln Chaffee. The Republican candidate is far behind.

Meanwhile, the true Toss-ups right now are in California (Brown vs. Whitman), Wisconsin (Barrett vs. Walker), and Oregon (Kitzhaber vs. Dudley). None of these races have a clear favorite right now, even though Barrett, Brown and Dudley would be slight favorites if the election was held today.

Democratic Governor Martin O’Malley (MD) and Republican Governor Rick Perry (TX)are both moderately favored to win their re-election bids against strong challengers, respectively former Governor Bob Ehrlich and Houston Mayor Bill White.

Incumbent party-candidates in New Hampshire (Lynch), Georgia (Deal), Massachusetts (Patrick) and in all races that aren’t listed here are favored to win their elections.

U.S. House

I don’t have enough space here to talk about all the interesting races as in the Senate and Governor sections, so let me just highlight the results of a couple of races that I know are dear to the netroots and of some especially close races:

In Florida-08 (Grayson-D), Alan Grayson is projected to lose to his challenger, Dan Webster, by 7.5%. He still has about a 25% chance to win reelection. Keep in mind that our model does not directly look at fundraising (it does look at Cook ratings though, and Cook does include fundraising in his ratings)- and Grayson has a gigantic warchest.

In Illinois-10 (open-R) Dan Seals is a slight favorite to finally become a U.S. Representative after twice unsuccessfully running against Mark Kirk.

In New York-20 (Murphy-D), Scott Murphy, who was elected with a strong Kossack phonebanking drive in the 2009 special election to replace Senator Gillibrand, looks like a slight favorite to win reelection. Bill Owens in NY-23 is a slight underdog though.

In Virginia-5 (Periello-D), red-district Progressive Tom Periello will almost certainly lose reelection.

In Idaho-1 (Minnick-D), the probably most conservative House Democrat Walt Minnick is projected to be a slight underdog in his reelection bid. You shouldn’t take this number too seriously though: This race is extreme. Minnick was, and the model can’t incorporate this, endorsed by the Tea Party Express and the Chamber of Commerce and praised by the Club for Growth, and the NRCC has already pulled resources from this district in the light of polls that show Minnick far ahead of his Republican opponent. Expect this number to shift as more polls come in, but right now our model isn’t convinced of Minnick’s staying power, as McCain won the district by a 61-35 margin in the 2008 Presidential Election while Minnick just barely beat a disliked Republican incumbent who won only 60% of his primary vote after winning a six-way GOP primary with 26% of the vote in 2006.

Races on knife’s edge: Here you can really make a difference

Julie Lassa (D) vs. Sean Duffy (R) (WI-07, Obey retiring)

Rep. Gerry Connoly (D) vs. Keith Firmian (R) (VA-11)

Rep. Phil Hare (D) vs. Robby Schilling (R) (IL-17)

Colleen Hanabusa (D) (likely) vs. Rep. Charles Djou (R) (HI-01)

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) vs. Jesse Kelly (R) (AZ-08)

All of these 5 races are so close that every additional volunteer or donor might tip the race.

Summary:

Again, the bottom line isn’t pretty: The Democrats are likely to lose the House, several Senate seats and more Governorships than they will pick up.

Talking about continuing the gains that Democrats made in 2006 and 2008 is irrational now- what we can all do is pick a few campaigns and invest a lot of our time and put our best efforts into limiting our losses.

What the DCCC does– cutting incumbents that can’t win loose, might be a good strategy for private volunteers and donors as well.

I’m curious what SSP’ers think about RealClearPolitics US House rankings for November. They’re fairly bleak reading: RCP ranks 24 Dem seats as “leaning” or “likely” Republican, with three Republican seats ranked as “leaning” or “likely” Democratic. So right off the bat, they have the Republicans with a 21-seat gain.

On its own, that wouldn’t be surprising; it’s the “tossups” that are.  

Beyond the 21-seat net GOP gain RCP sets as a base, they project that there are 30 Democratic seats (and one Republican seat) that are in the “tossup” category. What’s so bleak about this picture is that if we assume the 21 pickups they do, and a GOP-leaning electorate, that would indicate they’d get more than half of the tossups, giving them a majority.

Certainly, this would be consistent with the TPM and Pollster Generic Ballot average, which are looking especially bleak.

To be fair, there are some important caveats. The generic ballot does not look good, but it seems to be particularly skewed by Rasmussen, which has a 48-36 GOP advantage right now, and Gallup, whose polls have swung wildly. In the Pollster database, if you filter both of those out, you get a narrow 1-point GOP generic ballot advantage.

More on point about the RCP average – could they be over-optimistic? GOP gains of 40+ or even 50+ are certainly possible, given the political climate. But it does seem like several of those races listed as “lean GOP” should be listed as tossups. And although RCP is relatively non-partisan in their polling averages, they are a GOP site.

Any thoughts? I’d be interested in hearing more from people who know these races better than I do.  

It's been a month since my initial forecast and I think it requires an update. I didn't rank every seat in order of weakness because there is a potential for wild cards and some I moved down on my list. Let's look at what I expect to happen.

 

TN-6	AL-2	NJ-6
LA-3	ID-1	CT-4
AR-2	WI-7	NJ-12
NY-29	VA-11	WI-3
OH-1	FL-2	UT-2
MD-1	NM-1	NC-2
OH-15	PA-3	MO-3
IN-8	NJ-3	KY-6
KS-3	WV-1	IN-2
VA-5	MO-4	WA-2
IN-9	PA-12	MN-1
NM-2	TX-23	NY-20
TN-8	PA-10	NY-25
VA-2	NY-13	TN-4
FL-8	SC-5	RI-1
NH-2	OH-18	OH-6
MS-1	OH-13	GA-12
ND-AL	PA-4	NY-1
WA-3	PA-8	OR-1
NH-1	OH-16	PA-17
NY-24	MA-10	IA-1
FL-24	NY-23	KY-3
SD-AL	NY-19	GA-8
CO-4	VA-9	CA-18
MI-1	CT-5	MI-9
NV-3	FL-22	CO-7
AR-1	OR-5	IL-8
IL-14	WV-3	CA-20
MI-7	PA-11	CA-47
TX-17	PA-7
IA-3

This is the scenario that is most probable, the GOP gaining between 24-30 seats. The purple category holds “Possible” gains, I added a new color category for that reason. The GOP could pull all these purple seats, but I expect them to only grab 2-3 of them, which would make the overall gain 27. And you have subtract at least three from any GOP gain number because Democrats will likely takeover HI-1, LA-2 and DE-AL. So the actual math for GOP gains is 24-27. That's my main prediction. Now on to the best case scenario for Democrats.

TN-6	AL-2	NJ-6
LA-3	ID-1	CT-4
AR-2	WI-7	NJ-12
NY-29	VA-11	WI-3
OH-1	FL-2	UT-2
MD-1	NM-1	NC-2
OH-15	PA-3	MO-3
IN-8	NJ-3	KY-6
KS-3	WV-1	IN-2
VA-5	MO-4	WA-2
IN-9	PA-12	MN-1
NM-2	TX-23	NY-20
TN-8	PA-10	NY-25
VA-2	NY-13	TN-4
FL-8	SC-5	RI-1
NH-2	OH-18	OH-6
MS-1	OH-13	GA-12
ND-AL	PA-4	NY-1
WA-3	PA-8	OR-1
NH-1	OH-16	PA-17
NY-24	MA-10	IA-1
FL-24	NY-23	KY-3
SD-AL	NY-19	GA-8
CO-4	VA-9	CA-18
MI-1	CT-5	MI-9
NV-3	FL-22	CO-7
AR-1	OR-5	IL-8
IL-14	WV-3	CA-20
MI-7	PA-11	CA-47
TX-17	PA-7
IA-3

Similar to the 1978 midterm where Republicans only managed to grab only 15 seats. I have the GOP grabbing 18 in this scenario. If Democratic candidates can really localize elections like Mark Critz in PA-12 did, this is what the board would look like. 

Overall, both scenarios show GOP gains, but not enough for the GOP to take the majority.

This week Scott Harpers‘s campaign in IL-13 was one of only five races nationally and the only one in Illinois to be upgraded to the Red to Blue Emerging Races list by the DCCC.

On top of that this week Harper was also endorsed by DAPAC (Democratic Advancement Political Action Committee). From their website: “DAPAC is a unique progressive political action committee that targets Republican held seats in the U.S. House and helps “new progressive” Democratic candidates run and win in those districts.” They only support progressives:  “All of our elected members of Congress from the last cycle have voted progressively on the issues. No other Democratic organization comes close to having a record as progressive as ours.”

All the smart, hard work Scott, his campaign manager Sarah Topy, her staff and the  volunteers flocking to the campaign are putting in to elect this great candidate to the House is really paying off.

Read on for how this race is shaping up to be one of our biggest House wins this cycle.

Scott is the first serious candidate Bush loving, do nothing, 10 year incumbent Judy Biggert has ever faced. On primary day, Super Tuesday he got 25,000 more votes in the district than Biggert and her wingnut primary challenger combined.

We’re seeing a sea change folks, in formerly Republican stronghold DuPage County which makes up about a third of the district, where Markos cut his eye teeth canvassing in his misspent youth, almost 133,000 voters took Democratic ballots to 109,000 Republicant. I’ve been here for most of my life and I can tell you that’s never happened before. And it’s not like Repubs had nothing to vote for, this was long before Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos”, Biggert had her challenger, and there were several other contested primary races on their ballot. And let’s remember it was the last chance they had to vote for anyone but McCain to be their nominee. Romney dropped out two days later. I’m a precinct committeeman here and spent all day at my polling place. I know my voters and I know the Repubs. There were a lot of angry, fed up Republicans who felt betrayed crossing over. My Repub counterpart was a convention delegate for Romney and desperately tried to get them to vote for Mittens but he didn’t come close.

Keep in mind back in February hardly anyone knew who Scott was. He’s not a longtime politico, he’s never run for office before and if you googled his name last year chances are you’d come up with a reporter in Georgetown or a swimmer from Australia. I never heard of him before I met him at Yearly Kos in Chicago last year. On Super Tuesday he was just a name on the ballot with a “D” next to it. Now, thanks to Scott’s hard work, a lot of nights and weekends spent by volunteers, the grueling hours his staff puts in, and the money supporters have dug deep to contribute, a whole lot more voters not only know him but are excited about his candidacy.

The same can’t be said of Judy Biggert. Scott’s forced her to open a campaign HQ and for the first time ever she’s mounting a field campaign. She had to skip the Republican convention and the opportunity to hobnob with all those big money donors to march in Labor Day parades where Scott’s contingent more than doubled hers in all but one parade thanks to the Giant Ice Cream Cone disaster of 2008 in Naperville that kept many supporters from getting to Lemont in time.

By the end of the 2nd quarter on June 30 Harper outraised all four of Biggert’s previous challengers combined for their entire races. As a matter of fact he’s outraised her since the beginning of the year. But unfortunately that’s not enough.

Biggert has had a 10 year head start. She started with a huge warchest and can count on big banks she “oversees” (I use that term loosely) as the ranking member of the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and Consumer Credit. BTW she got that plum assignment, the only subcommittee or committee she’s ever risen to chair or been ranking member of in her illustrious career in the House when her Republican predecessor dropped dead. You’d think with her district being right next door to Denny Hastert’s all those years she’d be a brighter star in the wingnut firmament by now, but not Judy Biggert.

But I digress, She not only has big bank bucks backing her, (say that 5 times fast), she joined the rest of those fools on the House floor this summer spouting “drill baby drill!”. Hilariously the only wingnut I found that wrote anything on the net about her speech into the darkness said without a mic she couldn’t hear a word she said even though the writer was in the third row! It’ll come as no surprise that while she gives lip service to alternative energy and actually votes sometimes for it’s R&D funding she fights tooth and nail to make sure the fossil fuel industry stays on top. And why wouldn’t she? She’s got hundreds of thousands invested in them and has taken almost $88,000 of their campaign cash at last count, and probably a lot more since her grandstand play in the darkened House last month.

Her daughter is a pharmaceutical lobbyist in DC so what’s her take from healthcare interests? A cool $230,000.

I could go on and on but you get the picture. Scott Harper is up against an old fashioned money con backed by the fattest of cats who want her to keep fighting for their privileged position, the future be damned.

We’re on the verge of winning this race but we need people like you and me and our small donations to help make up that cash difference. The money will go toward the advertising blitz in the last few weeks that’ll help us reach those who don’t know enough about Harper yet and put us over the top.

Please give what you can to Scott’s campaign through the Emerging Races ActBlue page, $50, $100 bucks, even $5 would be a big help.  

Chris Bowers recently posted a diary at Open Left that contained a fascinating piece of information.  Generic House Democrats were running 9 percentage points ahead of Barack Obama (who was tied with McCain).  It is not like this has not happened before.  Jimmy Carter ran barely 2 percentage points ahead of Gerald Ford in 1976 but nationally, Democrats share of the US House vote was 13% ahead of the Republican share.  Carter repeated the feat 4 years later running distinctly behind Ronald Reagan and a sturdy 12% behind the national Democratic vote for the House.

The obvious point, of course, is that if generic House Democrats are clearly popular, House Democratic challengers would be lining up to run as Democrats rather than as non-partisan or unaligned types.  Democrats should be wrapping themselves ever tighter in their popular brand as we get nearer to the general election.  A review of the web sites for House challengers showed that some candidates are following that strategy but many are still running scared as if it was still 2002.

The trend to stress Democratic ties seemed particularly clear in Washington (all three challengers were clearly identified as Democrats), Florida, California and Texas.  It was surprisingly weak in the Northeast.  Specific data follows below thew fold.

One Northeastern candidate who is clearly pushing his party ties is Jim Himes in CT-4.  Himes is easily labelled a “Democrat for Congress” and includes a picture with Barack Obama and a video with Nancy Pelosi.  Karen Hartley-Nagle (DE-At Large), running as a long shot from the most democratic district held by a Republic follows the strategy to the max.  Joe Courtney from CT is also upfront.

Following the opposite mode is Mike McMahon (NY-13) whose only use of Democratic or Democrat is in a list of endorsements: the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.  Otoh, McMahon basks in camapign appearance by Chuck Schumer and Hillary Clinton.  wtf.  

Many northeastern Dems include the affiliation on the fron page but not on the logo:  John Hall (NY-19), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Alice Kryzan (NY-26), John Adler (NJ-3), Dennis Shulman (NJ-5), Jennifer Dougherty (MD-6), and Frank Kratovil (MD-1) fit this picture.  Others bury the affiliation in a bio page (Tom Allen for the Senate, Chellie Pingree (ME-1), Mike Arcuri (NY-24), Linda Stender (NJ-7), Josh Zeitz (NJ-4), and Eric Massa (NY-29). Pingree says she’s in the same mold as Donna Edwards. Kirsten Gillibrand identifies herself as a Blue Dog leader but not as a Democrat.

Those Democrats in other parts of the country who push the affiliation include Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Dan Seals (IL-10), Anne Barth (WV-2), Gerry Connally (VA-11), Mary Etta Riley (IN-5), Andrew Concannon (MI-4), Darcy Burner (WA-8), Mark Mays (WA-5), George Fearing (WA-4), Noah Lemas (OR-2), Robert Neeld (FL-14), Tim Cunha (FL-6), Alan Grayson (FL-8), Bob Hackworth (FL-10),Christina Avalos (CA-40), Ed Chau (CA-42), John Thrasher (AZ-2), Jay Stoddard (NE-3), Georgiana Oliver (OK-1), Tracey Smith (TX-12), Roger Waun (TX-13), Tom Love (TX-24), and Brian Ruiz (TX-31).

Pennsylvania-11

Lean Democrat –> Toss Up  

Pennsylvania-7

Solid Democrat <– Likely Democrat

New York-19

Solid Democrat <– Likely Democrat

Indiana-8

Solid Democrat <– Likely Democrat

Florida-25

Likely Republican –> Lean Republican

California-11

Lean Democrat <– Toss Up

Oklahoma-Senate

Solid Republican –> Likely Republican  

Nothing too surprising here.  Barletta has been pushing hard, I don’t think PA-07, NY-19, or IN-08 are on anyones radars.  

Nice to see Rice and Garcia making progress, while Cook is also seeing Andal’s laughable campaign in CA-11 fall apart.  

http://cookpolitical.com/ratin…

Crossposted at DK, TPM, MyDD, and Prairie State Blue

Last Monday July 21st Sarah Topy and her staff at the Scott Harper campaign were looking forward to a week of data processing, fundraising and preparing for a big push in August after the immensely successful event they organized called “13 for the 13th” on July 13th, the single biggest Dem canvass ever held in IL-13.

There was a lot of file updating yet to do and wouldn’t you know Monday was the day the state guys finally had the new voter file ready to download. The new VAN basically updated and transformed all our files to new software and it was an all day procedure installing it. The files were still offline Monday night when I showed up at campaign HQ to make some calls. Rich Caparrell the field director was in Maryland for a much deserved long weekend off. We had another canvass scheduled for Saturday but volunteer turnout was expected to be light in the middle of vacation season and especially so soon after the big effort on July 13th. It wasn’t downtime but it’s as close as they’ll get in the next few months on Harper’s campaign.

Well that was the plan anyway, but it wasn’t to be. Read on for how those best laid plans went out the window in an instant and what happened next.

So just when they figured they’d be able catch up on some data entry the DCCC picked that Monday morning to announce the Mobilize for Change, 100 Days to Victory Contest which gave all Dem House challengers across the country just five days to see who could organize the most volunteers to pitch in on Saturday. The DCCC runs these contests periodically but I’ve never seen one so early in the cycle before. Running one this soon was a smart idea, competition gets the juices flowing just like the primaries particularly when House campaigns need some excitement in the dog days of summer. The reward for the winner is an email shout out to all three million contributors on DCCC chair Van Hollen’s email list that will bring in a significant chunk of cash and priceless name recognition and respect that’s sorely lacking for a lot of our House challengers.

So with the field director a thousand miles away and the computer files out of action til Tuesday they got to work. They called everybody on their own phone contact lists and emailed any and everybody in their personal address books who they thought might be willing to canvass all afternoon or make phonecalls for as little as half an hour on Saturday.

By Tuesday morning the voter file was up and running again. By Wednesday morning Rich was back in the office and the place was rockin’.

Here’s what they accomplished by Saturday:

635 volunteers made phone calls.

Hundreds attended phone bank sites or phone bank house parties and hundreds more took advantage of our call from home program. We had phonebank parties set up as far away as Seattle where one of Scott’s old classmates organized a party, to Denver where members of his family had 20 people making calls to NE Pennsylvania where Rich’s family pulled together in Hazleton with their cell phones.

64 volunteers went door-to-door.

Canvassers carried literature about Scott Harper and local Democratic candidates. I picked up a couple of DFA activists at the Fairview train station in Downers Grove and gave them their walk packets and lit. One guy, Greg Hodgson left his house in Indiana at 7:30 am and didn’t expect to get home until 7:30 Saturday night. The other guy William Maggos grew up in the district in Woodridge and came out from the south side of Chicago. You just gotta love dedication like that. It’s the kind of selfless sacrifice that wins elections.

59 volunteers wrote letters and delivered yard signs from our Naperville headquarters.

In all 758 Volunteers Mobilized Throughout the District and Across the Country to help Scott Harper in Just One Day!

When you consider they put all that together starting from behind with four days on the computer to work with instead of five like everybody else and the field director out of town until Wednesday that’s just incredible.

Scott’s broad base of support, not just among activists but among Democratic candidates and party leaders was a real key to our success. With the vast majority of candidates for State Representative, State Senate, and local office and all of our elected officials helping out by making calls or hosting sites for us, this whole event was a truly coordinated effort.

I can’t emphasize this enough, if your House candidate isn’t running a coordinated campaign up and down the ballot with other Dems in the area please contact them and let them know how effective it is. We had too many co-sponsors for this event to list them all but here are just a few who brought many of their own volunteers out and organized canvass staging sites and phonebanks through out the district.

A Big Thank You Goes Out to All the Co-Sponsors especially:

Candidates

Dianne McGuire for State Representative

Joe Heneghan for State Representative

Audrey Manley for State Senate

Will County Board Candidates Karen Gonzalez and Jackie Traynere

DuPage County Board candidates Karol Sole and Bob Brandt

Elected Officials

State Senator A.J. Wilhelmi

State Senator Linda Holmes

State Senator Dan Kotowski

Will County Executive Larry Walsh

Judge Sarah Jones

Without these folks and many others and their organizations the Harper campaign wouldn’t have been able to mount this great team effort on such short notice. I don’t know as of yet who won the Mobilize for Change 100 Days to Victory Contest, I guess the DCCC is still tabulating the results. But I can tell you this is a tremendous success for the Scott Harper campaign and all our other candidates. With all of us pulling together like this we will win in November. And that’s just the beginning.

So thanks again to everybody who took time out on a beautiful summer Saturday to make this happen. Whether we win, lose or draw the DCCC contest we’ve taken another big step toward victory this fall. It’s change we can believe in because we are mobilizing that change ourselves.  

 

Here is my personal rundown, a word document almost copy and pasted for how I see the senate races.  

Notes:

– All the numbers, names, and codes can be rather mind-numbing.  If you see any spelling or numerical errors, please tell me.  

-If you think one race should be rated more competitive than another, or less competitive than another, feel free to make your case.  I think I have a good setup, but it isn’t perfect.

-This is a more liberal prediction, how the races will be on election day.  (For example, NY25, Dan Maffei will raise and spend about two million dollars, while his opponent, who isn’t an incumbent, will raise and spend around $500,000 & The DCCC will spend money here if they think it is necessary to pickup this seat.)

– *** = Retired Incumbent

– I round fundraising down to the nearest thousand.

Republican Held Seats:

1-7 = Likely Democratic Pickup

8-14 = Lean Democratic Pickup

15-24 = Toss up

25-37 = Lean Republican Retention

38-49 = Likely Republican Retention

50-68 = Race to Watch

Democratic Held Seats:

1-3 = Toss Up

4-14 = Lean Democratic Retention

15-27 = Likely Democratic Retention

House Republicans

1. New York-25*** (D+3) – – –  R2B

Dan Maffei v. Dale Sweetland

Total Raised — $1,309,000 v. $133,000

Cash On Hand – $961,000 v. $107,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-25

2. New York-13*** (D+1) – – –  R2B

Mike McMahon v. ???

Total Raised —- $498,000 v. $0

Cash On Hand – $470,000 v. $0

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-13

3. Arizona-01*** (R+2) – – –  R2B

Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay

Total Raised —- $968,000 v. $293,000

Cash On Hand – $668,000 v. $257,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for AZ-01

4. New Jersey-03*** (D+3) – – –  R2B

John Adler v. Chris Myers

Total Raised —- $1,719,000 v. $626,000

Cash On Hand – $1,463,000 v. $155,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NJ-03

5. Virginia-11*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian

Total Raised —- $937,000 v. $1,293,000

Cash On Hand – $275,000 v. $1,039,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for VA-11

6. Illinois-11***  (R+1) – – –  R2B

Debbie Halvorson v. Martin Ozinga

Total Raised —- $1,233,000 v. $810,000

Cash On Hand — $916,000 v. $669,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for IL-11

7. New Jersey-07*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Linda Stender v. Leonard Lance

Total Raised —- $1,545,000 v. $385,000

Cash On Hand – $1,200,000 v. $80,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NJ-07

———————————————————————

8. New York-26*** (R+3) – – –  R2B

Jon Powers v. Chris Lee

Total Raised —- $869,000 v. $670,000

Cash On Hand – $488,000 v. $636,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NY-26

9. New Mexico-01*** (D+2) – – –  R2B

Martin Heinrich v. Darren White

Total Raised — $1,240,000 v. $905,000

Cash On Hand — $354,000 v. $634,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NM-01

10. Michigan-07 (R+2) – – –  R2B

Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg

Total Raised — $1,330,000 v. $1,208,000

Cash On Hand — $928,000 v. $855,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for MI-07

11. Minnesota-03*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulson

Total Raised — $1,052,000 v. $1,393,000

Cash On Hand — $738,000 v. $1,123,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for MN-03

12. Ohio-15*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers

Total Raised —- $1,559,000 v. $1,216,000

Cash On Hand – $1,163,000 v. $879,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for OH-15

13. Washington-08 (D+2) – – –  R2B

Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert

Total Raised —- $1,959,000 v. $1,487,000

Cash On Hand – $1,248,000 v. $916,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for WA-08

14. Ohio-16*** (R+4) – – –  R2B

John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring

Total Raised — $1,081,000 v. $819,000

Cash On Hand — $531,000 v. $348,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for OH-16

———————————————————————

15. New York-29 (R+5) – – –  R2B

Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl

Total Raised — $1,158,000 v. $943,000

Cash On Hand — $652,000 v. $618,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NY-29

16. North Carolina-08 (R+3) – – –  R2B

Larry Kissell v. Representative Robert Hayes

Total Raised —- $610,000 v. $2,207,000

Cash On Hand – $231,000 v. $1,174,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NC-08

17. Illinois-10 (D+4) – – –  R2B

Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk

Total Raised —- $1,988,000 v. $3,763,000

Cash On Hand – $1,175,000 v. $2,856,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for IL-10

18. Michigan-09 (R+0) – – –  R2B

Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg

Total Raised —- $1,301,000 v. $2,547,000

Cash On Hand – $1,082,000 v. $1,891,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for MI-09

19. Ohio-01 (R+1) – – –  R2B

Steve Dreihaus v. Representative Steve Chabot

Total Raised —- $889,000 v. $1,356,000

Cash On Hand – $631,000 v. $1,311,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for OH-01

20. Nevada-03 (D+1) – – –  R2B

Dina Titus v. Representative Jon Porter

Total Raised —- $575,000 v. $2,038,000

Cash On Hand – $553,000 v. $1,277,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NV-03

21. Florida-24 (R+3) – – –  R2B

Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney

Total Raised —- $1,142,000 v. $1,388,000

Cash On Hand — $936,000 v. $795,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for FL-24

22. Colorado-04 (R+9) – – –  R2B

Betsy Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave

Total Raised —- $958,000 v. $1,661,000

Cash On Hand – $580,000 v. $1,155,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for CO-04

23. Florida-21 (R+6) – – –  R2B

Raul Martinez v. Representative Lincoln Diaz Balart

Total Raised —- $1,219,000 v. $1,485,000

Cash On Hand – $1,079,000 v. $1,456,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for FL-21

24. Connecticut-04 (D+5) – – –  R2B

Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays

Total Raised —- $2,055,000 v. $2,329,000

Cash On Hand – $1,444,000 v. $1,698,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for CT-04

———————————————————————

25. New Mexico-02*** (R+6) – – –  R2B

Harry Teague v. Ed Tinsley  

Total Raised —- $1,529,000 v. $1,091,000

Cash On Hand —– $75,000 v. $111,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for NM-02

26. Louisiana-04*** (R+7) – – –  R2B

Paul Carmouche v. Chris Gorman

Total Raised —- $481,000 v. $706,000

Cash On Hand – $388,000 v. $352,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for LA-04

27. Missouri-09*** (R+7)

Judy Baker v. Bob Onder

Total Raised —- $401,000 v. $495,000

Cash On Hand – $140,000 v. $349,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MO-09

28. Florida-25 (R+4) – – –  R2B

Joe Garcia v. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart

Total Raised —- $824,000 v. $1,135,000

Cash On Hand – $700,000 v. $752,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-25

29. Idaho-01 (R+19) – – –  R2B

Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali

Total Raised —- $997,000 v. $656,000

Cash On Hand – $444,000 v. $250,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for ID-01

30. Alaska-AL (R+14) – – –  R2B

Ethan Berkowitz v. Sean Parnell

Total Raised —- $627,000 v. $291,000  

Cash On Hand – $398,000 v. $207,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”  

2006 Results for AK-AL

31. Missouri-06 (R+5) – – –  R2B

Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves

Total Raised — $1,852,000 v. $1,902,000

Cash On Hand — $962,000 v. $936,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for MO-06

32. Wyoming-AL*** (R+19) – – –  R2B

Gary Trauner v. Mark Gordon

Total Raised —- $955,000 v. $723,000

Cash On Hand – $701,000 v. $69,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for WY-AL

33. Florida-13 (R+4) – – –  R2B

Christine Jennings v. Representative Vernon Buchanan

Total Raised — $1,499,000 v. $2,953,000

Cash On Hand — $578,000 v. $1,572,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-13

34. Ohio-02 (R+13) – – – ER

Victoria Wulsin v. Representative Jean Schmidt

Total Raised — $1,090,000 v. $858,000

Cash On Hand — $378,000 v. $393,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for OH-02

35. Alabama-02*** (R+13) – – –  R2B

Bobby Bright v. Jay Love

Total Raised —- $399,000 v. $1,051,000

Cash On Hand – $280,000 v. $90,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for AL-02

36. California-04*** (R+11) – – –  R2B

Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock

Total Raised — $1,314,000 v. $1,596,000

Cash On Hand — $675,000 v. $117,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for CA-04

37. Virginia-02 (R+6) – – –  R2B

Glenn Nye v. Representative Thelma Drake

Total Raised —- $515,000 v. $1,334,000

Cash On Hand – $409,000 v. $682,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for VA-02  

———————————————————————

38. Texas-07 (R+16) – – – ER

Michael Skelly v. Representative John Culberson

Total Raised —- $1,465,000 v. $983,000

Cash On Hand – $1,050,000 v. $550,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for TX-07  

39. Kentucky-02*** (R+13) – – – ER

David Boswell v. Brett Guthrie

Total Raised — $219,000 v. $764,000

Cash On Hand — $45,000 v. $661,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for KY-03

40. Texas-10 (R+13)Larry Doherty v. Representative Mike McCaul

Total Raised —- $701,000 v. $975,000

Cash On Hand – $259,000 v. $489,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for TX-10

41. Nevada-02 (R+8) – – – ER

Jill Derby v. Representative Dean Heller

Total Raised —- $437,000 v. $1,169,000

Cash On Hand – $353,000 v. $984,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NV-02

42. Florida-08 (R+3)

Charlie Stuart v. Representative Richard Keller

Total Raised —- $613,000 v. $986,000

Cash On Hand – $414,000 v. $935,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for FL-08

43. Maryland-01*** (R+10) – – –  R2B

Frank Kratovil v. Andrew Harris

Total Raised —- $789,000 v. $1,905,000

Cash On Hand – $454,000 v. $609,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MD-01

44. Pennsylvania-03 (R+2) – – – ER

Kathleen Dahlkemper v. Representative Phil English

Total Raised —- $314,000 v. $1,579,000

Cash On Hand – $127,000 v. $786,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for PA-03

45. Arizona-03 (R+6) – – –  R2B

Bob Lord v. Representative John Shadegg

Total Raised — $1,065,000 v. $1,704,000

Cash On Hand — $706,000 v. $1,354,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for AZ-03

46. New Jersey-05 (R+4) – – – ER

Dennis Shulman v. Representative Scott Garrett

Total Raised —- $548,000 v. $983,000

Cash On Hand – $258,000 v. $649,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NJ-05

47. Virginia-05 (R+6) – – – ER

Tom Perriello v. Representative Virgil Goode

Total Raised —- $910,000 v. $818,000

Cash On Hand – $519,000 v. $834,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for VA-05

48. West Virginia-02 (R+5) – – –  R2B

Anne Barth v. Representative Shelly Capito Moore

Total Raised —- $629,000 v. $1,143,000

Cash On Hand – $353,000 v. $974,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for WV-02

49. California-50 (R+5) – – – ER

Nick Leibham v. Representative Brian Bilbray

Total Raised —- $560,000 v. $879,000

Cash On Hand – $266,000 v. $528,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for CA-50

———————————————————————

50. Pennsylvania-15 (D+2) – – – ER

Siobhan Bennett v. Representative Charlie Dent

Total Raised —- $537,000 v. $1,161,000

Cash On Hand – $353,000 v. $686,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for PA-15

51. Alabama-03 (R+4) – – – ER

Josh Segall v. Representative Mike Rogers

Total Raised — $521,000 v. $906,000

Cash On Hand – $410,000 v. $1,119,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for AL-03

52. Pennsylvania-06 (D+2) – – – ER

Bob Roggio v. Representative Jim Gerlach

Total Raised —- $324,000 v. $1,814,000

Cash On Hand – $259,000 v. $761,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for PA-06

53. Florida-18 (R+4) – – – ER

Annette Taddeo v. Representative Ros-Lehtinen

Total Raised —- $475,000 v. $1,124,000

Cash On Hand – $457,000 v. $1,893,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-18

54. Indiana-03 (R+16) – – – ER

Michael Montagano v. Representative Mike Souder

Total Raised —- $459,000 v. $556,000

Cash On Hand – $351,000 v. $323,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for IN-03

55. California-46 (R+6)

Debbie Cook v. Representative Dana Rohrbacher

Total Raised — $157,000 v. $319,000

Cash On Hand — $97,000 v. $387,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for CA-46

56.Virginia-10 (R+5) – – – ER

Judy Feder v. Representative Frank Wolf

Total Raised — $1,207,000 v. $1,403,000

Cash On Hand — $812,000 v. $849,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for VA-10

57. Indiana-04 (R+17)

Nels Ackerson v. Representative Steve Buyer

Total Raised — $395,000 v. $479,000

Cash On Hand – $177,000 v. $623,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for IN-04

58. Illinois-18*** (R+5) – – – ER

Colleen Callahan v. Aaron Schock

Total Raised —- $227,000 v. $1,498,000

Cash On Hand – $155,000 v. $299,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for IL-18

59. California-26 (R+4)

Russ Warner v. Representative David Dreier

Total Raised —- $651,000 v. $918,000

Cash On Hand – $125,000 v. $1,903,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for CA-26

60. Ohio-14 (R+2)

William O’Neill v. Representative Steven LaTourette

Total Raised — $345,000 v. $1,166,000

Cash On Hand — $46,000 v. $870,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for OH-14

61. Illinois-06 (R+3) – – – ER

Jill Morgenthaler v. Peter Roskam

Total Raised —- $495,000 v. $1,770,000

Cash On Hand – $230,000 v. $1,213,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for IL-06

62. Florida-09 (R+4) – – – ER

John Dicks v. Representative Gus Bilirakis

Total Raised —- $354,000 v. $1,049,000

Cash On Hand – $323,000 v. $642,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-09

63. Louisiana-07 (R+7) – – – ER

Don Cravins Jr. v. Representative Charles Boustany

Total Raised —- $107,000 v. $1,014,000

Cash On Hand – $104,000 v. $669,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for LA-07

64. Ohio-07*** (R+6)

Sharen Neuhardt v. Steve Austria

Total Raised —- $363,000 v. $818,000

Cash On Hand – $108,000 v. $361,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for OH-07

65. Minnesota-02 (R+3) – – – ER

Steve Sarvi v. Representative John Kline

Total Raised — $251,000 v. $1,075,000

Cash On Hand — $98,000 v. $647,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MN-02

66. North Carolina-10 (R+15) – – – ER

Dan Johnson v. Representative Patrick McHenry

Total Raised —- $341,000 v. $1,031,000

Cash On Hand – $218,000 v. $410,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NC-10

67. Minnesota-06 (R+5) – – – ER

El Tinklenberg v. Representative Michele Bachmann

Total Raised —- $531,000 v. $1,932,000

Cash On Hand – $225,000 v. $1,297,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MN-06

68. Nebraska-02 (R+9)

James Esch v. Representative Lee Terry

Total Raised —- $246,000 v. $957,000

Cash On Hand – $140,000 v. $616,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NE-02

–

–

–

House Democrats

1. Texas-22 (R+15)

Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson

Total Raised — $1,635,000 v. $1,068,000

Cash On Hand – $1,148,000 v. $261,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for TX-22  

2. Kansas-02 (R+7)

Representative Nancy Boyda v. Jim Ryun

Total Raised — $1,227,000 v. $1,649,000

Cash On Hand — $892,000 v. $223,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for KS-02  

3. Florida-16 (R+2)

Representative Tim Mahoney v. Hal Valeche

Total Raised — $2,497,000 v. $1,054,000

Cash On Hand – $1,172,000 v. $828,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for FL-16

———————————————————————

4. New Hampshire-01 (R+0)

Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley

Total Raised — $919,000 v. $714,000

Cash On Hand – $748,000 v. $475,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NH-01  

5. Oregon-05*** (D+1)

Kurt Shrader v. Michael Erickson

Total Raised — $382,000 v. $1,963,000

Cash On Hand – $231,000 v. $400,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for OR-05  

6. Alabama-05*** (R+6)

Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker

Total Raised — $572,000 v. $431,000

Cash On Hand – $351,000 v. $73,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for AL-05  

7. Georgia-08 (R+8)

Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard

Total Raised — $1,169,000 v. $767,000

Cash On Hand – $1,372,000 v. $488,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for GA-08  

8. Kentucky-03 (D+2)

Representative John Yarmuth v. Anne Northup

Total Raised — $1,456,000 v. $1,081,000

Cash On Hand – $1,001,000 v. $819,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for KY-03  

9. Pennsylvania-10 (R+8)

Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett

Total Raised — $1,648,000 v. $2,010,000

Cash On Hand – $1,149,000 v. $174,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for PA-10  

10. Pennsylvania-04 (R+3)

Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart

Total Raised — $2,122,000 v. $823,000

Cash On Hand – $1,574,000 v. $624,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for PA-04  

11. Louisiana-06 (R+7)

Don Cazayoux v. Bill Cassidy

Total Raised — $1,833,000 v. $212,000

Cash On Hand — $271,000 v. $195,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for LA-06  

12. Mississippi-01 (R+10)

Travis Childers v. Greg Davis

Total Raised — $1,315,000 v. $1,345,000

Cash On Hand — $160,000 v. $53,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for MS-01  

13. Arizona-08 (R+1)

Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee

Total Raised — $2,499,000 v. $1,146,000

Cash On Hand – $2,077,000 v. $687,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for AZ-08  

14. New York-20 (R+3)

Representative Kirsten Gillibrand v. Alexander Treadwell

Total Raised — $3,602,000 v. $2,693,000

Cash On Hand – $2,802,000 v. $1,269,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-20    

———————————————————————

15. California-11 (R+3)

Representative Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal

Total Raised — $2,130,000 v. $798,000

Cash On Hand – $1,375,000 v. $663,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for CA-11  

16. Pennsylvania-11 (D+5)

Representative Paul Kanjorski v. Lou Barletta

Total Raised — $1,513,000 v. $517,000

Cash On Hand – $2,174,000 v. $321,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for PA-11  

17. Arizona-05 (R+4)

Representative Harry Mitchell v. David Schweikert

Total Raised — $1,717,000 v. $681,000

Cash On Hand – $1,372,000 v. $514,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for AZ-05  

18. Connecticut-05 (D+4)

Representative Chris Murphy v. David Cappiello

Total Raised — $2,272,000 v. $763,000

Cash On Hand – $1,901,000 v. $710,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for CT-05  

19. Wisconsin-08 (R+4)

Representative Steve Kagen v. John Gard

Total Raised — $1,410,000 v. $812,000

Cash On Hand — $926,000 v. $649,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for WI-08

20. Texas-23 (R+4)

Representative Ciro Rodriguez v. Lyle Larson

Total Raised — $2,164,000 v. $534,000

Cash On Hand – $1,193,000 v. $279,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for TX-23  

21. Illinois-14 (R+5)

Representative Bill Foster v. Jim Oberweis

Total Raised — $3,459,000 v. $4,660,000

Cash On Hand — $442,000 v. $547,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for IL-14

22. Indiana-09 (R+7)

Representative Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel

Total Raised — $1,734,000 v. $664,000

Cash On Hand – $1,160,000 v. $379,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for IN-09

23. Minnesota-01 (R+1)

Representative Tim Walz v. Brian Davis

Total Raised — $1,941,000 v. $490,000

Cash On Hand – $1,210,000 v. $377,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for MN-01

24. New York-19 (R+1)

Representative John Hall v. Kieran Lalor

Total Raised — $1,821,000 v. $226,000

Cash On Hand – $1,267,000 v. $150,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-19

25. Ohio-18 (R+6)

Representative Zach Space v. Fred Dailey

Total Raised — $1,809,000 v. $272,000

Cash On Hand – $1,141,000 v. $12,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for OH-18

26. Georgia-12 (D+2)

Representative John Barrow v. John Stone

Total Raised — $1,725,000 v. $134,000

Cash On Hand – $1,109,000 v. $8,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for GA-12

27. Indiana-08 (R+9)

Representative Brad Ellsworth v. Greg Goode

Total Raised — $1,246,000 v. $144,000

Cash On Hand — $779,000 v. $9,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for IN-08

Total # of Red to Blue Candidates: 38

Total # of Emerging Races Candidates: 21

Current Breakdown: 236D-199R

Prediction: 25-35 Democratic pickups in the US House

June 30th marks the first FEC reporting deadline since I have become the presumptive Democratic nominee. It’s clear that media pundits and our opponents will use Democratic fundraising totals as a measure of our party’s strength this November.

Today, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is launching its United for Change Campaign to show Democratic strength across the electoral map by the June 30th reporting deadline. House Democrats are joining us to help and will match every gift 2-to-1 today, making any gift of $50 worth $150.

http://dccc.org/blog/archives/…

Interesting deal.  If you ever considered giving to the DCCC, now would be a good time.  We need a strong showing all around after June 30th, the next filing deadline.  (I can’t wait)  This e-mail was sent to DCCC supporters by Obama.  

Here’s the link to donate: http://www.dccc.org/page/contr…