It's been a month since my initial forecast and I think it requires an update. I didn't rank every seat in order of weakness because there is a potential for wild cards and some I moved down on my list. Let's look at what I expect to happen.
| TN-6 | AL-2 | NJ-6 |
| LA-3 | ID-1 | CT-4 |
| AR-2 | WI-7 | NJ-12 |
| NY-29 | VA-11 | WI-3 |
| OH-1 | FL-2 | UT-2 |
| MD-1 | NM-1 | NC-2 |
| OH-15 | PA-3 | MO-3 |
| IN-8 | NJ-3 | KY-6 |
| KS-3 | WV-1 | IN-2 |
| VA-5 | MO-4 | WA-2 |
| IN-9 | PA-12 | MN-1 |
| NM-2 | TX-23 | NY-20 |
| TN-8 | PA-10 | NY-25 |
| VA-2 | NY-13 | TN-4 |
| FL-8 | SC-5 | RI-1 |
| NH-2 | OH-18 | OH-6 |
| MS-1 | OH-13 | GA-12 |
| ND-AL | PA-4 | NY-1 |
| WA-3 | PA-8 | OR-1 |
| NH-1 | OH-16 | PA-17 |
| NY-24 | MA-10 | IA-1 |
| FL-24 | NY-23 | KY-3 |
| SD-AL | NY-19 | GA-8 |
| CO-4 | VA-9 | CA-18 |
| MI-1 | CT-5 | MI-9 |
| NV-3 | FL-22 | CO-7 |
| AR-1 | OR-5 | IL-8 |
| IL-14 | WV-3 | CA-20 |
| MI-7 | PA-11 | CA-47 |
| TX-17 | PA-7 | |
| IA-3 |
This is the scenario that is most probable, the GOP gaining between 24-30 seats. The purple category holds “Possible” gains, I added a new color category for that reason. The GOP could pull all these purple seats, but I expect them to only grab 2-3 of them, which would make the overall gain 27. And you have subtract at least three from any GOP gain number because Democrats will likely takeover HI-1, LA-2 and DE-AL. So the actual math for GOP gains is 24-27. That's my main prediction. Now on to the best case scenario for Democrats.
| TN-6 | AL-2 | NJ-6 |
| LA-3 | ID-1 | CT-4 |
| AR-2 | WI-7 | NJ-12 |
| NY-29 | VA-11 | WI-3 |
| OH-1 | FL-2 | UT-2 |
| MD-1 | NM-1 | NC-2 |
| OH-15 | PA-3 | MO-3 |
| IN-8 | NJ-3 | KY-6 |
| KS-3 | WV-1 | IN-2 |
| VA-5 | MO-4 | WA-2 |
| IN-9 | PA-12 | MN-1 |
| NM-2 | TX-23 | NY-20 |
| TN-8 | PA-10 | NY-25 |
| VA-2 | NY-13 | TN-4 |
| FL-8 | SC-5 | RI-1 |
| NH-2 | OH-18 | OH-6 |
| MS-1 | OH-13 | GA-12 |
| ND-AL | PA-4 | NY-1 |
| WA-3 | PA-8 | OR-1 |
| NH-1 | OH-16 | PA-17 |
| NY-24 | MA-10 | IA-1 |
| FL-24 | NY-23 | KY-3 |
| SD-AL | NY-19 | GA-8 |
| CO-4 | VA-9 | CA-18 |
| MI-1 | CT-5 | MI-9 |
| NV-3 | FL-22 | CO-7 |
| AR-1 | OR-5 | IL-8 |
| IL-14 | WV-3 | CA-20 |
| MI-7 | PA-11 | CA-47 |
| TX-17 | PA-7 | |
| IA-3 |
Similar to the 1978 midterm where Republicans only managed to grab only 15 seats. I have the GOP grabbing 18 in this scenario. If Democratic candidates can really localize elections like Mark Critz in PA-12 did, this is what the board would look like.
Overall, both scenarios show GOP gains, but not enough for the GOP to take the majority.
Hopefully your latter prediction comes true, but I hate to see Herseth Sandlin or Pomeroy lose.
I think you have out-lined a very solid set of scenarios. You give the Republicans clearly enough credit for what they “should pick up”, without giving them too much credit at this point for what “could pick up”. That’s a tough balancing act, but you managed it well.
I’m sure it’s just a mistake, because even on the best night for Reps, they can’t pick up one seat twice.
It is interesting that you list CA-18, CA-20 and CA-47 on your board but not CA-11. It seems like the conventional wisdom is that Jerry McNerney (of CA-11) is the most endangered of the CA Democratic incumbents. CA-18 and CA-20 are Central Valley districts so are not completely safe but Cardoza and Costa are typical AgBiz Dems who are suited to their districts. CA-47 is Loretta Sanchez; she has got to be nearly safe in her Latino plurality district. Her opponent is Vietnamese-American, and while that is a large community in that district Sanchez has worked hard to earn their support. She is the well-known incumbent who should win by at least high single digits.