SSP Daily Digest: 8/12 (Afternoon Edition)

• NV-Sen: It really seems Sharron Angle is trying to “soften” her image… maybe? For starters, she’s reversed course on attending a Tea Party rally this weekend on the U.S./Mexico border (probably not wanting to be photographed in proximity to the signs that attendees are going to be waving at such an event), despite having confirmed her appearance there last week. And her newest TV ad also focuses on how she wants to “save” Social Security, although her definition of “save” might vary considerably from yours or mine. Harry Reid’s out with his own TV ad, too, calling her “dangerous” and “crazy” over her now-infamous “2nd Amendment remedies” line.

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown just got $20,000 from a very unusual source: Alex Spanos, owner of the San Diego Chargers and usually a staunch Republican donor (as well as a real estate developer who has recently clashed with Brown, as AG, over land-use laws). Spanos hasn’t contributed to Meg Whitman’s campaign. Apparently Spanos and the Brown family go way back; Spanos was a financial backer for Brown’s first gubernatorial campaign in 1974.

• MA-Gov: There’s a new poll of the governor’s race out, from somebody called Mass Insight (taken by Opinion Dynamics): since the only place I can find a link to the poll is Red Mass Group (not even Mass Insight’s own site?) and their site describes themselves as a consulting and research firm that focuses on “market-driven solutions,” I think it’s safe to call this a Republican-ish poll. At any rate, they find Democratic incumbent Deval Patrick leading GOPer Charlie Baker and independent Tim Cahill 30-25-16. And in a two-way race (which, of course, would require Cahill to drop out), Baker leads Patrick 42-37. The poll also reports that 54% of respondents are either “somewhat or very likely” to vote against their incumbent Congressman (all of whom are Democrats, of course) this year.

• MI-Gov (pdf): The Detroit News is out with its first poll of the gubernatorial race after the primary elections, conducted by the Glengariff Group. GOPer Rick Snyder leads Democrat Virg Bernero 51-32, leading in all parts of the state except Detroit proper. Snyder’s faves are 41/15, pretty remarkable considering he just got out of a heated four-way primary, while Bernero’s are 21/27.

• ID-01, OH-18, PA-04: The NRCC is pushing back today after the New York Times, as part of a longer piece talking about Dem House incumbents, said that Walt Minnick, Zack Space, and Jason Altmire were “no longer seen by Republicans as easy targets.” I guess one can quibble over what “easy” means, which is different from saying the GOP has cut these districts loose, but still, to talk with that level of specificity, the NYT had to have gotten that idea from somewhere.

• MA-10: Well, this open seat race just keeps getting weirder and weirder, with the entry of yet another sorta-prominent former Dem running as an indie. Former state Rep. (and way back in the mists of time, aide to Tip O’Neill) Maryanne Lewis will run as a moderate independent. (Recall that former Quincy mayor James Sheets is already running as an indie, too.) I understand the desire to circumvent the Dem primary in this district, which already has two heavyweights in it, but too many indie cooks could spoil the broth here in November.

• MI-01: This photo-finish race in the GOP primary has been outstanding for almost two weeks now, but the state board of canvassers is preparing to certify the election tomorrow. According to physician Dan Benishek’s camp, he leads by 15 votes over state Sen. Jason Allen. Allen is taking a wait-and-see attitude, though a recount sounds likely (which will be cumbersome, in this 31-county district… something I’m sure Dem nominee Gary McDowell doesn’t mind, I’m sure).

• MS-01: Rep. Travis Childers, in for a tough fight against Alan Nunnelee, is out with his first TV ad. As one would expect, in his dark-red district, he’s talking up how he’s one of the “most independent” members of the House, and name-drops his NRA and National Right to Life endorsements. NWOTSOTB.

• VA-09: One last ad to report, and it’s from a very strange source: the Some Dude in the Bloody 9th, running as an independent, is actually hitting the airwaves. I’m not sure with what money, as he’s raised $20K over the cycle (almost all self-funded) and at the end of June had $88 CoH. (There’s not a K missing. That’s literally $88.) Anyway, he wants you to know that he’s never taken money from special interests (which should be abundantly clear from his fundraising report) and never will.

• Rasmussen:

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 41%, Ken Buck (R) 46%

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 35%, Bill Brady (R) 48%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 43%, Roy Blunt (R) 50%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 41%, Scott Walker (R) 49%

• WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 43%, Mark Neumann (R) 45%

84 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 8/12 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. I sorta believe the NRCC denial on this one considering they just sponsored a poll showing Space tied with his opponent. Why would they downgrade it after that (unless they’ve got so many better chances?)  

  2. 1. It’s the Detroit News – which endorsed McCain.

    2. Snyder started advertising during the Super Bowl.

    3. Thanks to #2, people have a much more positive image of Snyder (as the poll indicates). People will soon find out about Snyder’s role in the outsourcing of jobs to Communist China.

    4. The well-known Granholm was down by several points in 2006 against Dick DeVos, who had also been on the air for many months. In the One Poll That Mattered, it was Granholm 56, DeVos 42.

  4. Survey USA Is becoming a very bad pollster.Back In 2008

    during the primarys they had Hillary CLinton with huge leads In Missouri and Indiana and Obama barely winning NC.

    Obama won NC big and narrorly won Missouri Primary.Hillary barely won the Indiana primary.In the general election they

    had Mccain winning In Minnesotta which Obama won by 10.

    And they had In Colorado primary they had romonoff winning.

    Even RAS has Boxer ahead In California.Most other polls In

    California have a narror Brown lead.Remember Whitman has been pouring money on ads while Brown has started spending his money yet really yet.

  5. Just don’t understand what Colorado Democrats were thinking.  Even though it’s a Rasmussen poll, Bennet’s going to have trouble winning.

  6. Does anyone from MI know whether the other candidates went negative on Snyder in the primary? When you have more than two serious candidates there is less incentive to go negative, because negative ads often hurt both the attacker and the target.

  7. Most polls showed Bennet as the more electable of the 2.

    Of course RAS would come out with poll with Buck ahead.

    Tuesday showed PPP should be one of the top rated pollster.

    Yeah PPP people are Democratic leaning but they often get

    It right.Untill October gets here RAS Is just a Republican

    pollster.

  9. It Is tough In this environment to run statewide as a dem

    In Missouri.Robin Carnahan will do well In St Louis City,

    St Louis Country,and Kansas City but apart from that so far

    she Is getting killed In polls apart from the democratic

    strongholds In the state.So far a lot of voters(most lilely

    read Independents)here are Blaming Obama for the economy and some take the right wing attacks seriously.They are

    forgottening Blunt’s reciving lobbyists(Including abenoff)

    money,supporting deregulation which got us In this mess,

    was all for bailing out the banks when Bush was president

    and now Republicans had nothing to do with bailouts It was

    all that socialist rasing taxes Obama’s fault(which Is more of less the republican line) and has a statement on

    being against Social Security and Medicare.As a Dem In Kansas City I am voting for her but voters outside of St

    Louis and Kansas City need to change their minds of Blunt will keep Bond’s seat.

  12. is MYDD even a community anymore?  I’m just wondering, b/c every time i go there it seems like there are a bunch of diaries with only one or two comments. just wondering if there are any members/former members here  who would know.

  16. Both polls look very bad.  I don’t care that they’re Ras polls; I normally don’t dismiss a Ras election just because it’s Ras.  

    Blunt seems to have the momentum now, due to his anti-Obama ad.  I hope Carnahan can get a lot of airtime and rural campaigning in to stop Blunt’s momentum.

    How can someone as extreme as Brady be doing so well in all polls?  Some effort is needed to educate Illinois voters over how insane Brady is.

  17. And I think all are solid assessments

    CO-GOV: Toss-up -> Likely Dem

    AR-02: Lean GOP -> Likely GOP

    FL-25: Likely GOP -> Lean GOP

    NY-29: Lean GOP -> Likely GOP

    I’m getting optimistic because the changes on Cook’s list are getting less frequent. And 2 of the 4 changes this week are to the Dems (even though CO-GOV is under special circumstances).

    Still, not bad.

  19. Vitter got his wish. Melancon is spending money now, rather than saving it for October, which is what Vitter hoped he would do. With Vitter raising a lot every quarter, and Melancon’s fundraising dropping off (less than 300k last quarter), early ads favor Vitter: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballo…

    The asshole’s aren’t playing ads in New ORleans or Baton Rouge, the two places I spend all my time, so I wont be seeing any 🙁

Comments are closed.