Tag: election

3:18am (David): Back to Eastern time here. (Nice try, Jeff.) I think we’ve done absolutely all we can do. I don’t think we’re going to see any more votes come in tonight, so it’s time for a ganja break for the SSP crew. Tune in tomorrow!

2:02am: All of Dane County is reporting, having shown a 4.61% swing away from Prosser and turnout at 2.77x the first round. (This includes Middleton…which quite nicely gave KloJo more than a 1,000 vote margin).

1:48am: (jeffmd here. CENTRAL TIME WILL DESTROY YOU!) Here’s where we’re at: there are, per the AP, 34 precincts outstanding.  However, Dunn County has all precincts reporting on it website, and it helps KloJo close to a 356 vote deficit.  Crawford and Dane counties are completed reported.

So precinct wise, here’s what’s left:

6 in Ashland

1 in Jefferson

1 in Juneau

12 in Milwaukee

8 in Sauk

1 in Taylor

Jefferson and Taylor are telling us that their last precincts won’t be reporting until tomorrow.

Lake Mills town in Jefferson County gave Prosser 56.1% in the first round, and we’ve seen a 9.32% swing away from him tonight.

Maplehurst in Taylor County gave Prosser 42.9% of the vote in the first round, and we’ve seen a 5.4% swing towards him tonight.  Overall, I’m guessing that Jefferson and Taylor will overall be about a wash.  All the other counties listed favored KloJo tonight.

2:40am: My chart’s got more significant digits than Picasso got paint!

2:24am: New chart – KloJo won these counties by 62-38 so far tonight:

2:21am (DavidNYC): Prosser’s lead down to 585 votes. 34 precincts left.

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Fresh new thread. (How did I get here?)

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

2:02am: 3,575 of 3,630 precincts, Klop behind 726,325 to 728,203. And sorry for any confusion about the timestamps – Jeff insisted on using something called “Central” time, but I’m here to restore Eastern time to its rightful glory.

1:45am: 7 more precincts just came in, and Kloppenburg is now behind 1,898 votes.

1:40am: It’s so close that I’m not sure this is meaningful, but our model now predicts a KloJo win by 50.04% to 49.96%.

1:31am: Per that table just below, I count about 97 outstanding precincts, in counties that Kloppenburg has won by an average of 60% so far tonight.

1:24am: DavidNYC here – taking over the con from Jeff, who has done heroic work tonight. Not counting absentees, etc., this is where I’m seeing outstanding precincts:

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My nails now are quite bloody.

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

12:05am: Move along, move along, like I know you do.

12:05am: Prosser is now up by about 2,200 votes.  With most of the precincts in Dem-leaning territory…but these precincts have to be substantive, and not empty, as we’ve seen plenty tonight.

12:01am: Eau Claire County may not give us as much of a boost as expected – most of the city of Eau Claire is reporting, with 11 of the 21 outstanding being from the city.

11:56pm: Looking at Marathon County, there could be good news left for KloJo – most of the outstanding precincts appear to be in the City of Wausau, which should help her recover her lead, or at least be empty (which is better than the 54-46 margin Prosser has there thus far).

11:53pm: Bad advance news from Racine County, which based on the County website is fully reporting and has KloJo losing by 6K votes, not 3k.  This moves the needle to 4.90%.

11:46pm: Waukesha is now entirely reporting, with the last 68 precincts being all empty.  The needle stands at 4.98% away from Prosser…or a 182 vote Prosser lead when all is said and done.

11:42pm: The Las Vegas Mayoral runoff spot has been called for Chris G, evidently.

11:40pm: We’re at 94.6%. It comes down to something as simple as this: how much of Waukesha and Ozaukee are actually reporting? Just think, if Waukesha is indeed all reporting, that brings us to a final projected margin of 175 votes for Prosser.

11:33pm: FUCK. A bunch of Dane precincts just reported, with no votes. This likely owes to the various tendrils of the city of Madison that have their own precincts…but no residents.  This moves the needle to 3.87%…count me pessimistic.

11:26pm: Waupaca County just reported in bulk, showing a 7% swing to KloJo as has been characteristic of the Fox Valley/northeastern Wisconsin. The needle’s at 4.45%…where’s still just a little bit short of where we need to be.

11:23pm: I’ve been neglecting Las Vegas…where the Clark County is not showing any results for me.  But, Carolyn Goodman is out in front, with Chris G and Larry Brown separated by 30 votes!

11:15pm: 90.4% reporting now, and KloJo is clinging to a 4K vote lead.  The wildcard is still the Milwaukee burbs, which are lagging at 65% reporting…but who knows what’s actually reported.

11:11pm: Looking at FDL County, KloJo’s swings in the Fox Valley continue to be apparent: after having given Prosser 72% in the first round, FDL only gave him 61% this time around….a big improvement.

11:07pm: Before Professor Jeff gets into precincting procedures, it could be relevant that Wisconsin draws election precincts (which it refers to as “wards”), and that many of these precincts left could be empty.  I’ll also note that very few MKE precincts are empty…and that the empty ones Milwaukee precincts are actually part of Waukesha (2) and Ozaukee (1).

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The sucker in me likes being optimistic.

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

11:06pm: Keep it moving, folks.

11:01pm: This will come down to the Milwaukee suburbs…and depending on how many precincts are actually counted. Based on this last set, the swing away from Prosser is 4.9%….which is getting VERY close to what we need.  Turnout in the Dem strongholds isn’t particularly outstanding – 2.2x in MKE and 3.3x in Madison, slightly behind the 3.6x statewide.

10:52pm: A big batch of Milwaukee precincts…with votes, and a swing to KloJo, no less. This last batch brings the swing in MKE county from 9.28 to 11.78%. The swing away from Prosser is now 4.66%…which is getting close to the neighborhood of what is needed.

10:47pm: A huge batch of MKE suburban precincts….but no more votes.  Waukesha jumped from 52 to 119 and Ozaukee from 16 to 26.  This change alone brings the swing away from Prosser to 3.87%.

10:38pm: No progress yet from the MKE suburbs, but a cursory review of county websites would suggest that at least half are in and not the 27% reported.  Also interesting is that nothing has reported yet from Fond du Lac County, which could be a good source of swing toward KloJo.  The rest of the Fox Valley + Green Bay (defined to be Outagamie, Winnebago, Calumet, and Brown counties) has swung 7.3% away from Prosser.

10:32pm: 68% in now, and Prosser is about 2.27% underperforming his primary performance (which is calculated using a weighted average).  Turnout differentials are not particularly helping us – across the state, it’s about 3.9x the primary total, but only 2.2x in Milwaukee and 3.1x in Madison. (However, this includes the absurd Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington results [Ozaushingsha County?], where turnout based on these numbers is 8.4x the primary).

10:24pm: KloJo is back in the lead, thanks to a Madison vote dump.  We’re still looking for some insight into the MKE suburban numbers, which seems overly inflated.

10:21pm: A similar effect is being seen in Washington County, where the current precinct numbers suggesting 73% of the population voting.

10:17pm: Nominally, the MKE suburbs are only 27% reporting. …but, the numbers right now would suggest 311K votes from Waukesha, or 80% of the total population. It would also suggest 60K votes from Ozaukee – 71% of the total population.  This should signal some overestimating of the effect of the Milwaukee burbs.

10:16pm: That last update wasn’t great for KloJo, who’s now 10,000 down; Prosser is only 2.27% underperforming now.

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Let’s keep going…

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

10:13pm: Thread trois.

10:10pm: A few more votes from Madison have trickled in, bringing KloJo back into the lead. However, the swing is still only 2.84%, less than what we need.

10:01pm: At the halfway mark now, and Prosser is now underperforming by about 3.5%. That number needs to clear 5% for KloJo to win.  The Milwaukee burbs, however, are still the laggards here, at 23% reporting.  However, the number of votes in Waukesha seems a little out of wack, as taking them at face value suggest that turnout is 8 times higher today than in the primary.

9:56pm: With 65% reporting for Milwaukee County Exec, Chris Abele is leading 61-39.  I think we can chalk this one up for Team Blue.

9:48pm: With 42% reporting now, Prosser’s assembled a 52-48 lead, or 19,000 votes.  “Outstate” – if there is one – is reporting and not being the friendliest to KloJo. Potential areas of improvement include the college towns in La Crosse/Eau Claire/Stevens Point and Madison. Despite their repugnant redness, the Milwaukee burbs are swinging 8.36% towards KloJo – more than what’s needed.

9:39pm: Back to Chicago for a second, a few incumbents lost tonight: Bernie Stone and John Rice for sure, and possibly Fredrenna Lyle in the 6th.  The Republicans might be going 0-for-50, with both would be GOPers losing, by 260 votes in the 41st and by 31 votes in the 45th. [And Sharon Denise Dixon in the 24th. No love for Rhymefest though, who loses to incumbent Wilie Cochran.]

9:29pm: Things continue to move slightly in KloJo’s favor, with Prosser doing 3.2% worse than before.  Hopefully, the trend continues.  Prosser is underperforming in all areas except Dane County – which is explained by the fact that Madison has yet to report.

9:22pm: Prosser’s doing 2.4% worse than in the primary. However, the MKE suburbs’s are only 8%…which leaves plenty of room for him to pad his lead, sadly.

9:17pm: Chris Abele continues to crush for MKE County Exec, now 61-39 with 28% in.

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It’s a progressive party.

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

9:15pm: Follow the party here.

9:10pm: More of Milwaukee’s reported now, which is enough improvement such that Prosser’s now 1.5% below his primary performance.  KloJo will still need more to win this though.

9:06pm: According to Journal-Sentinel, Chris Abele now has a 60-40 lead over Jeff Stone with 10% reporting. Hopefully, this means we can expect some swings towards KloJo in Milwaukee County.

9:01pm: More results now – 12% in. Prosser’s underperforming everywhere…except Milwaukee County, Dane County, and the not contiguous “College Towns”, comprised of Eau Claire, La Crosse, and Portage counties.  Hopefully, this will change.

8:56pm: Clarendon County has reported in South Carolina, and the Dem is now leading 52-47.

8:45pm: More of Wisconsin in now, and Prosser is now slightly underperforming (-0.23%). KloJo has a 202-vote lead, but the disgustingly Republican Milwaukee burbs haven’t reported just yet. (Keep in mind, Waukesha + Ozaukee + Washington gave Bush a larger margin than Milwaukee gave Kerry).

8:40pm: With our first Milwaukee County precincts, Jeff Stone is up by 1%. Prosser at par with his primary performance now (+0.06%).

8:34pm: Kenosha County is going 64-36 for Prosser, but it’s also quite heavily polarized. With the last dump, Prosser is doing 1% better than in the primary, about 6% over what he needs overall.

8:30pm: 2.5% reporting now, with Prosser doing about 2% better than in the primary (assuming uniform counties). It’s still early – this is plenty likely to change.  We need Prosser to do about 5% worse for KloJo to win.

8:19pm: Ten precincts in now (does this mean I have to stop using just my fingers to count?). Prosser’s doing about 5% better than he did in the primary, but turnout in Dane County is 2x.

8:13pm: Hey, one precinct in Dane County (Madison)!  Kloppenburg’s at 60%.  Turnout in this one precinct is 2.5x what the average Dane County precinct was in the primary. (The flipside is that Prosser is doing 8.6% better in this one precinct than he did throughout Dane County in the first round.)

8:02pm: In South Carolina, heavily Dem HD-64 currently has a Republican lead of 5 votes, but only one of two counties has reported. (And I’m guessing not the Dem one, either.)

7:51pm: Checking out these Chicago results real quick – Rahm’s picks aren’t doing too well in the 24th and 25th wards.  Crusty old jackass Bernard Stone is losing quite handily in the 50th, and Che “Rhymefest” Smith (co-writer of Kanye West’s “Jesus Walks”) is holding incumbent Willie Cochran to 53% in the 20th.

Once again, Central Time shall prevail!

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And so it is, 15 minutes to takeoff.

On the docket:

• The marquee event, the Wisconsin Supreme Court race between the conservative-leaning incumbent David Prosser and Dem-leaning JoAnne Kloppenburg.
  

• Milwaukee County Executive, which Scott Walker kindly left open between Walker crony Jeff Stone and  Dem Chris Abele.
  

• The first test of Mayor Emanuel’s clout, with numerous City Council runoffs in Chicago, which Rahm hasn’t been shy to wade in.
  

• Various local offices throughout Las Vegas and Clark County.

Results:

Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Chicago: AP

SC: SC SEC

Nevada: Clark County

So, everyone else does lists at the end of the year. Why shouldn’t we? Here following, my picks for the 2010 Politicos of the year (in reverse chronological order).  

10. Suzana Martinez – NM-Gov

Martinez was a unknown district attorney when she took on Lt. Governor Dina Denish in a state that had not only overwhelmingly voted for Obama in 2008 but elected an all Democratic slate to Congress. She succesfully tied Denish into scandal-ridden outgoing governor Bill Richardson and won. The fact she did so in such a Democratic state makes her acheivement marginally more impressive than the Republicans other woman-minority governor-elect, Nikki Haley.

9. Lisa Murkowski – AK-SEN

Ran won of the worst primary campaigns in history, followed by the first successful write in campaign in 50 years. The kudos she deserves for the later far outweigh the mocking she deserves for the former.

8. Jerry Brown – CA-Gov

The former and future governor of California survived the most expensive attack campaign in American history. Almost without breaking a sweat.

7. Kamala Harris – CA-AG

A rising star, and the first woman to win this traditionally conservative law and order position. It’s no accident she’s being compared to Obama.

6. Rick Snyder – MI-Gov

“One tough nerd” managed to beat out three better known candidates in the Republican primary and crush his Democratic opponent in a state that gave Obama a landside win. Good luck with governing it.

5. Rick Scott – FL-Gov

Just as Time Magazine once picked the Ayatollah Khoemeni as “Man of the Year” we have to put Scott up there as a politician of the year. He beat out Florida’s AG for the nomination, and went on to defeat the much respected CFO of the state, despite being acclaimed as the “Madoff of Medicare,” among other titles.

4. Pete Sessions – R-Texas

It’s hard to single out one candidate in the Republican sweep of the House races this year, although some (Bob Dold? Chip Cravaack? Bill Flores) stand out. So, I’m putting Pete Sessions as a placeholder for everyone, because despite criticism about the NRCC’s tepid fundraising he managed to do better than either the RGA or the NRSC, partially through being very agressive about targeting races. Of course, we’ll see how he does in 2012, when the landscape may not be as promising.

3. Marco Rubio – FL-SEN

Almost everyone (except Kos) was declaring Rubio dead in the water when Charlie Crist released his first fundraising totals after announcing for Senate in 2009. Now, it’s Charlie Crist who is dead in the water, and Marco Rubio who is the potential Republican presidential candidate.

2. Harry Reid – NV-SEN

Here’s how much respect I have for Harry Reid as a politician: I think he would have beaten any of his opponents for Senate in 2010. He’s that good – his commercials were some of the best of the cycle.

1. Scott Brown – MA-SEN

It’s hard to believe that at the beginning of the year, it was assumed Martha Coakley, as Steve Singiser put it, “is likely to be the first woman elected to that chamber from the State of Massachusetts.” Even after all that’s happened since Brown’s victory, it’s hard to come up with a more shocking political result in a long time (the only one I can come up with is Harris Wofford’s win over Richard Thornburgh way back in 1991). What’s more, at this writing, Brown seems to be holding on to his popularity. Because Brown became the early face of the Republican wave that would sweep most strongly in the House elections, but also in the Senate, Governor and all the way down to the state legislatures, I think he should be 2010’s Politico of the Year.

WORST POLITICOS – 2010

1. Christine O’Donnell

Oh I hope she goes to jail. I really do. Even then, she probably won’t shut up. But I do have to say: thank you Erik Erickson and all the Tea Party organizations who gave us Dems a freebie in Delaware this year.

2. Joe Miller

Would have probably one a place as one of the best had he maintained his momentum after the primary. Instead, he lost to a write-in. Ultamite choke.

Del Ali

The head of polling organization Research 2000 is not a politician, but he was involved enough in politics that he makes my worst list for this year. Hope Kos wins his lawsuit.

Alan Grayson

Republicans should send a big thanks to Grayson for taking so much cash from well meaning progressives to fund an 18 point loss – one of the worst of any incumbent this cycle.

Blanche Lincoln, Paul Hodes (tie)

I guess you can give Lincoln credit for beating Bill Halter in the primary, but considering she was chairman of a major committee (Agriculture) in the Senate, shouldn’t she have been able to keep this race closer than a 22 point spread? As for Hodes, remember back in 2008 when Kos told us Hodes would finish off Judd Gregg (or whoever took Gregg’s place) in 2010? Yeah, well Hodes lost by almost 24 points. That was worse than Lee Fisher, or almost anyone else in a supposedly competitive race.  

It's been a month since my initial forecast and I think it requires an update. I didn't rank every seat in order of weakness because there is a potential for wild cards and some I moved down on my list. Let's look at what I expect to happen.

 

TN-6	AL-2	NJ-6
LA-3	ID-1	CT-4
AR-2	WI-7	NJ-12
NY-29	VA-11	WI-3
OH-1	FL-2	UT-2
MD-1	NM-1	NC-2
OH-15	PA-3	MO-3
IN-8	NJ-3	KY-6
KS-3	WV-1	IN-2
VA-5	MO-4	WA-2
IN-9	PA-12	MN-1
NM-2	TX-23	NY-20
TN-8	PA-10	NY-25
VA-2	NY-13	TN-4
FL-8	SC-5	RI-1
NH-2	OH-18	OH-6
MS-1	OH-13	GA-12
ND-AL	PA-4	NY-1
WA-3	PA-8	OR-1
NH-1	OH-16	PA-17
NY-24	MA-10	IA-1
FL-24	NY-23	KY-3
SD-AL	NY-19	GA-8
CO-4	VA-9	CA-18
MI-1	CT-5	MI-9
NV-3	FL-22	CO-7
AR-1	OR-5	IL-8
IL-14	WV-3	CA-20
MI-7	PA-11	CA-47
TX-17	PA-7
IA-3

This is the scenario that is most probable, the GOP gaining between 24-30 seats. The purple category holds “Possible” gains, I added a new color category for that reason. The GOP could pull all these purple seats, but I expect them to only grab 2-3 of them, which would make the overall gain 27. And you have subtract at least three from any GOP gain number because Democrats will likely takeover HI-1, LA-2 and DE-AL. So the actual math for GOP gains is 24-27. That's my main prediction. Now on to the best case scenario for Democrats.

TN-6	AL-2	NJ-6
LA-3	ID-1	CT-4
AR-2	WI-7	NJ-12
NY-29	VA-11	WI-3
OH-1	FL-2	UT-2
MD-1	NM-1	NC-2
OH-15	PA-3	MO-3
IN-8	NJ-3	KY-6
KS-3	WV-1	IN-2
VA-5	MO-4	WA-2
IN-9	PA-12	MN-1
NM-2	TX-23	NY-20
TN-8	PA-10	NY-25
VA-2	NY-13	TN-4
FL-8	SC-5	RI-1
NH-2	OH-18	OH-6
MS-1	OH-13	GA-12
ND-AL	PA-4	NY-1
WA-3	PA-8	OR-1
NH-1	OH-16	PA-17
NY-24	MA-10	IA-1
FL-24	NY-23	KY-3
SD-AL	NY-19	GA-8
CO-4	VA-9	CA-18
MI-1	CT-5	MI-9
NV-3	FL-22	CO-7
AR-1	OR-5	IL-8
IL-14	WV-3	CA-20
MI-7	PA-11	CA-47
TX-17	PA-7
IA-3

Similar to the 1978 midterm where Republicans only managed to grab only 15 seats. I have the GOP grabbing 18 in this scenario. If Democratic candidates can really localize elections like Mark Critz in PA-12 did, this is what the board would look like. 

Overall, both scenarios show GOP gains, but not enough for the GOP to take the majority.

I thought as me first diary I should take a look at what lies ahead in 2012. Take in mind, while I do take in mind facts in each state, these are purely speculative and should be taken with a grain of salt. However, I do put in mind three factors which I think would affect state by state results:

1.) Obama on the ballot: With Barack Obama most likely running for reelection, his presence on the ballot should increase Democratic turnout that was not present in Virginia or New Jersey in 2009, and will definitely have an impact of key states.

2.) Tea Party: Just as Obama’s presence will mobilize the left, I expect the Tea Party to have the same impact on the Republicans as they are currently having during the current primary calendar.

3.) 2011 Redistricting: I suspect by the time the states redraw their Congressional Districts, a number of House members may be drawn out of their old districts and may be seeking greener pastures of higher office.

So here’s my completely speculative predictions for 2012. I’ll look at the Senate first:

Arizona: Jon Kyl, once looking like a dead duck, seems to have gotten a second wind with immigration reform once again front and centre. Gabrielle Giffords is probably the most likely challenger, however at this point it doesn’t look like Kyl will be unseated.

Kyl 51%, Giffords 47%, Others 2%

California: Dianne Feinstein will be 79 years old, and while normal people expect someone that age to retire, this is after all the United States Senate, so I’m working with the assumption that Feinstein is running for reelection. Schwarzenegger is the only statewide Republican who’s won statewide, so I’ll use him as a template.

Feinstein 55%, Terminator 41%, Others 4%

Connecticut: Three words: Murphy vs. Lieberman. Republicans won’t even run a candidate to give Joementum a better chance to win.

Murphy 52%, Lieberman 48%

Delaware: I actually think Tom Carper will retire. Beau Biden, after recovering from his health scare, will make up for not running for his father’s seat. Republicans will pick a sacrifical lamb.

Biden 56%, Republican 44%

Florida: I’ve got three different scenarios for this one. George Lemieux might run, and possibly Jeb Bush. Marco Rubio does NOT win in 2010, and tries to take on Bill Nelson.

Nelson 53%, Lemieux 46%, Others 1%

Bush 57%, Nelson 40%, Others 3%

Rubio 51%, Nelson 48%, Others 1%

Hawaii: At 88 years in 2012, I’m guessing Akaka’s going to retire. Linda Lingle is going to run. In case Akaka doesn’t retire:

Lingle 51%, Democrat 49%

Indiana: I think Lugar’s got one more term in him, but this time the Dems aren’t letting him get away unopposed like last time; I’m just going to pull Baron Hill out of my arse here. Look for the Tea Party to make some kind of third party bid here.

Lugar 60%, Hill 30%, Tea Partier 10%

Maine: Tea Party makes good on its threat. Snowe faces a primary challenge and LOSES. Shockwaves are felt for about a week before people focus on the race. Mike Michaud runs for the Democrats and gets easiest pickup ever.

Michaud 58%, Republican 42%

Maryland: I think Cardin’s pretty weak. If the GOP finds another Michael Steele type candidate (I mean Steele before he became RNC Chairman), namely a black Republican, they might have a chance.

Black Republican 49.8%, Cardin 47.2%, Others 3%

Massachusetts: Pretty sure everyone is going to be watching this one come election night. Brown is popular now, but with Obama on the ballot and strong Democratic turnout this isn’t going to be the lucky break he got with Martha Coakley. Let’s just use Michael Capuano as the expected candidate.

Brown 51%, Capuano 49%

Michigan: This might be Stabenow’s last stand. The popularity of Dems in Michigan has gone down because of the economy, but with Obama on the ballot there is still a chance she could be saved. But this would depend if the GOP nominates a Tea Partier or a moderate Republican. Let’s use Dick DeVos as an example.

DeVos 50%, Stabenow 49%, Others 1%

Minnesota: I don’t see Amy Klobuchar losing at all.

Klobuchar 62%, Republican 36%, Others 2%

Mississippi: Same thing with Roger Wicker I see with Klobuchar.

Wicker 61%, Democrat 39%

Missouri: This is most likely going to be a McCaskill/Talent rematch.

McCaskill 52%, Talent 48%

Montana: Montana only has one Congressional district, so it’s not going to be changed anyway. Still, Denny Rehberg might be interested in running against a less stronger candidate like Jon Tester, who squeaked past the hapless Conrad Burns by a hair.

Rehberg 54%, Tester 44%, Others 2%

Nebraska: a Rasmussen poll last year showed Gov. Dave Heineman leading Ben Nelson by 31 points. Heineman’s very popular and could be seeking higher office after reelection this year. Either Nelson’s going to retire, or Heineman is going to run against him.

Heineman 59%, Nelson 41%

Heineman 70%, Some Other Guy 30%

That’s all I’ve got for now. Stay tuned for Part 2 of me Ridiculous 2012 Senate Predictions.

By: http://thepolitikalblog.wordpr…

This is the last part of my review of the swing state Ohio.

Republican Ohio

What parts of Ohio vote Republican?

All of it, of course, except for the parts that vote Democratic.

That is a pretty facetious answer to a fairly serious question, but there is something to it. Blue Ohio has a set of defined, separate characteristics. Red Ohio does too, but not to the same degree. It is far easier to describe Democratic Ohio than Republican Ohio.

The following map is a good beginning in exploring Republican Ohio.



These are the places which most heavily supported John McCain (for those who are curious, the most Democratic counties were Cleveland, Toledo, Ohio University, and Youngstown). They are located primarily in the southwestern portion of the state, away from the Democratic ‘7’. Interestingly, practically none are part of Appalachia – considered Obama’s weakest region in the country.

Southwest Ohio historically – and to this day remains – the most conservative part of Ohio. Geographically, it is the Republican base; even in Democratic landslides, it often will vote for the red candidate.

There is another trait the highlighted counties have in common: most are semirural and somewhat less populated. Another map helpfully illustrates this.



Compare the two maps. Very few of the counties in which John McCain took over 60% of the vote were populated enough to appear on the above map. There is very little overlap between the reddest parts of Ohio and the densest parts of Ohio – except, importantly, the suburbs of Cincinnati.

More below the flip.

This does not mean, however, that all counties with over fifty thousand votes went blue. Quite the opposite, in fact: many of the yellow counties voted for McCain. Only counties with over one hundred thousand votes tread Democratic. Take a look:



What does this mean?

The yellow counties are an imperfect representation of what famously cost John Kerry the state: the exurban reaches of Ohio, especially in Columbus and Cincinnati. Most of them are well-off and home to middle-class folk, like exurbs in general. White flight played an important role in their formation (although it was not, as some maintain, the biggest motivator). Both McCain and Bush got their largest margins from these places; they constitute an important – perhaps the most important – block of the GOP coalition today.

This has not always been the case. Before 2000, Hamilton County (Cincinnati) tended to give Republican candidates their biggest margins in the state. Today, it has been replaced by the surrounding counties, rapidly growing exurban communities. Nevertheless, Hamilton County remains a reliable Republican stronghold.

Contrary to popular perception, the city Cincinnati itself is not that conservative (not anymore); its deep red suburbs account for the county’s Republican lean. Cities in general never vote Republican, but in GOP strongholds – like Cincinnati – the overwhelmingly red suburban vote outweighs their Democratic lean.

For a visual illustration of Cincinnati’s importance, here is how George Bush did in Ohio:

Cincinnati and its surrounding exurbs provide the largest Republican margins. The exurbs of Columbus are going heavily Republican; so is much of eastern Ohio.

Note, however, that George Bush only won the state by 3.5%. Unfortunately the Times does not have maps of stronger Republican victories (e.g. 1988, 1980).

How has the Republican base changed since 2000? The following map provides a sense of how things stand today.



There is not too much to show. One can see a coherent north-south divide; northern Ohio has become more Democratic, southern Ohio less so. Most of the rural southwest is fairly lukewarm to Obama – but so is the blue east. Interestingly, the exurbs seem to have moved Democratic more than their rural brethren. Note that most counties are blue because the country as a whole voted more Democratic in 2008.

It is difficult to tell how much of this is permanent and how much was specific to 2008. Perhaps the exurban counties were only bluer because of the housing crisis. Certainly a place like Cincinnati (with its large black population) voted for Obama as a person, not the Democratic party. Then again, maybe not; the county supported Bush ’04 by only 5%.

But as a whole, red Ohio seems to vote the same way it has for the past few years (or generations). Neither it nor the Ohio Republican Party has changed much in recent years. The same cannot be said for the Democrats.