12:00am: SSP is gonna wrap it up for tonight. The implosion of the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois were quite remarkable…as was the vote splitting that allowed Harper to grab his majority.
11:51pm: The NDP may have done well in Quebec, but it didn’t do so hot in the Prairies. Aside from Edmonton-Strathcona, the NDP was shut-out in the Saskatchewan and Alberta; the NDP lost two in Manitoba, one each to the Grits/Tories.
RESULTS: Elections Canada | CBC | Globe & Mail
2:02am: 3,575 of 3,630 precincts, Klop behind 726,325 to 728,203. And sorry for any confusion about the timestamps – Jeff insisted on using something called “Central” time, but I’m here to restore Eastern time to its rightful glory.
1:45am: 7 more precincts just came in, and Kloppenburg is now behind 1,898 votes.
1:40am: It’s so close that I’m not sure this is meaningful, but our model now predicts a KloJo win by 50.04% to 49.96%.
1:31am: Per that table just below, I count about 97 outstanding precincts, in counties that Kloppenburg has won by an average of 60% so far tonight.
1:24am: DavidNYC here – taking over the con from Jeff, who has done heroic work tonight. Not counting absentees, etc., this is where I’m seeing outstanding precincts:
| County | Region | Percent | In | Total | Kloppenburg | Prosser | K% | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eau Claire | College | 65.57% | 40 | 61 | 9,524 | 6,343 | 60.02% | 39.98% |
| Marathon | Rest | 77.14% | 108 | 140 | 14,032 | 16,368 | 46.16% | 53.84% |
| Ashland | Rest | 78.57% | 22 | 28 | 2,504 | 1,037 | 70.71% | 29.29% |
| Sauk | Dairyland | 79.49% | 31 | 39 | 7,625 | 6,166 | 55.29% | 44.71% |
| Dunn | Rest | 85.00% | 34 | 40 | 3,896 | 3,358 | 53.71% | 46.29% |
| Crawford | Dairyland | 92.59% | 25 | 27 | 2,428 | 1,689 | 58.97% | 41.03% |
| Calumet | Fox Valley | 94.87% | 37 | 39 | 3,670 | 5,953 | 38.14% | 61.86% |
| Adams | Rest | 95.00% | 19 | 20 | 2,316 | 2,188 | 51.42% | 48.58% |
| Buffalo | Rest | 95.65% | 22 | 23 | 1,275 | 1,452 | 46.75% | 53.25% |
| Juneau | Rest | 96.55% | 28 | 29 | 2,546 | 2,337 | 52.14% | 47.86% |
| Oconto | Rest | 96.55% | 28 | 29 | 3,852 | 5,199 | 42.56% | 57.44% |
| Taylor | Rest | 96.67% | 29 | 30 | 2,266 | 3,602 | 38.62% | 61.38% |
| Milwaukee | Milwaukee | 97.53% | 474 | 486 | 125,090 | 95,129 | 56.80% | 43.20% |
| Jefferson | Rest | 97.56% | 40 | 41 | 9,365 | 12,860 | 42.14% | 57.86% |
| Manitowoc | Rest | 97.62% | 41 | 42 | 7,690 | 12,044 | 38.97% | 61.03% |
| Dane | Madison | 99.60% | 247 | 248 | 133,513 | 48,627 | 73.30% | 26.70% |
Results:
Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
Chicago: AP
SC: SC SEC
Nevada: Clark County
12:05am: Move along, move along, like I know you do.
12:05am: Prosser is now up by about 2,200 votes. With most of the precincts in Dem-leaning territory…but these precincts have to be substantive, and not empty, as we’ve seen plenty tonight.
12:01am: Eau Claire County may not give us as much of a boost as expected – most of the city of Eau Claire is reporting, with 11 of the 21 outstanding being from the city.
11:56pm: Looking at Marathon County, there could be good news left for KloJo – most of the outstanding precincts appear to be in the City of Wausau, which should help her recover her lead, or at least be empty (which is better than the 54-46 margin Prosser has there thus far).
11:53pm: Bad advance news from Racine County, which based on the County website is fully reporting and has KloJo losing by 6K votes, not 3k. This moves the needle to 4.90%.
11:46pm: Waukesha is now entirely reporting, with the last 68 precincts being all empty. The needle stands at 4.98% away from Prosser…or a 182 vote Prosser lead when all is said and done.
11:42pm: The Las Vegas Mayoral runoff spot has been called for Chris G, evidently.
11:40pm: We’re at 94.6%. It comes down to something as simple as this: how much of Waukesha and Ozaukee are actually reporting? Just think, if Waukesha is indeed all reporting, that brings us to a final projected margin of 175 votes for Prosser.
11:33pm: FUCK. A bunch of Dane precincts just reported, with no votes. This likely owes to the various tendrils of the city of Madison that have their own precincts…but no residents. This moves the needle to 3.87%…count me pessimistic.
11:26pm: Waupaca County just reported in bulk, showing a 7% swing to KloJo as has been characteristic of the Fox Valley/northeastern Wisconsin. The needle’s at 4.45%…where’s still just a little bit short of where we need to be.
11:23pm: I’ve been neglecting Las Vegas…where the Clark County is not showing any results for me. But, Carolyn Goodman is out in front, with Chris G and Larry Brown separated by 30 votes!
11:15pm: 90.4% reporting now, and KloJo is clinging to a 4K vote lead. The wildcard is still the Milwaukee burbs, which are lagging at 65% reporting…but who knows what’s actually reported.
11:11pm: Looking at FDL County, KloJo’s swings in the Fox Valley continue to be apparent: after having given Prosser 72% in the first round, FDL only gave him 61% this time around….a big improvement.
11:07pm: Before Professor Jeff gets into precincting procedures, it could be relevant that Wisconsin draws election precincts (which it refers to as “wards”), and that many of these precincts left could be empty. I’ll also note that very few MKE precincts are empty…and that the empty ones Milwaukee precincts are actually part of Waukesha (2) and Ozaukee (1).
Results:
Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
Chicago: AP
SC: SC SEC
Nevada: Clark County
11:06pm: Keep it moving, folks.
11:01pm: This will come down to the Milwaukee suburbs…and depending on how many precincts are actually counted. Based on this last set, the swing away from Prosser is 4.9%….which is getting VERY close to what we need. Turnout in the Dem strongholds isn’t particularly outstanding – 2.2x in MKE and 3.3x in Madison, slightly behind the 3.6x statewide.
10:52pm: A big batch of Milwaukee precincts…with votes, and a swing to KloJo, no less. This last batch brings the swing in MKE county from 9.28 to 11.78%. The swing away from Prosser is now 4.66%…which is getting close to the neighborhood of what is needed.
10:47pm: A huge batch of MKE suburban precincts….but no more votes. Waukesha jumped from 52 to 119 and Ozaukee from 16 to 26. This change alone brings the swing away from Prosser to 3.87%.
10:38pm: No progress yet from the MKE suburbs, but a cursory review of county websites would suggest that at least half are in and not the 27% reported. Also interesting is that nothing has reported yet from Fond du Lac County, which could be a good source of swing toward KloJo. The rest of the Fox Valley + Green Bay (defined to be Outagamie, Winnebago, Calumet, and Brown counties) has swung 7.3% away from Prosser.
10:32pm: 68% in now, and Prosser is about 2.27% underperforming his primary performance (which is calculated using a weighted average). Turnout differentials are not particularly helping us – across the state, it’s about 3.9x the primary total, but only 2.2x in Milwaukee and 3.1x in Madison. (However, this includes the absurd Waukesha/Ozaukee/Washington results [Ozaushingsha County?], where turnout based on these numbers is 8.4x the primary).
10:24pm: KloJo is back in the lead, thanks to a Madison vote dump. We’re still looking for some insight into the MKE suburban numbers, which seems overly inflated.
10:21pm: A similar effect is being seen in Washington County, where the current precinct numbers suggesting 73% of the population voting.
10:17pm: Nominally, the MKE suburbs are only 27% reporting. …but, the numbers right now would suggest 311K votes from Waukesha, or 80% of the total population. It would also suggest 60K votes from Ozaukee – 71% of the total population. This should signal some overestimating of the effect of the Milwaukee burbs.
10:16pm: That last update wasn’t great for KloJo, who’s now 10,000 down; Prosser is only 2.27% underperforming now.
Results:
Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
Chicago: AP
SC: SC SEC
Nevada: Clark County
10:13pm: Thread trois.
10:10pm: A few more votes from Madison have trickled in, bringing KloJo back into the lead. However, the swing is still only 2.84%, less than what we need.
10:01pm: At the halfway mark now, and Prosser is now underperforming by about 3.5%. That number needs to clear 5% for KloJo to win. The Milwaukee burbs, however, are still the laggards here, at 23% reporting. However, the number of votes in Waukesha seems a little out of wack, as taking them at face value suggest that turnout is 8 times higher today than in the primary.
9:56pm: With 65% reporting for Milwaukee County Exec, Chris Abele is leading 61-39. I think we can chalk this one up for Team Blue.
9:48pm: With 42% reporting now, Prosser’s assembled a 52-48 lead, or 19,000 votes. “Outstate” – if there is one – is reporting and not being the friendliest to KloJo. Potential areas of improvement include the college towns in La Crosse/Eau Claire/Stevens Point and Madison. Despite their repugnant redness, the Milwaukee burbs are swinging 8.36% towards KloJo – more than what’s needed.
9:39pm: Back to Chicago for a second, a few incumbents lost tonight: Bernie Stone and John Rice for sure, and possibly Fredrenna Lyle in the 6th. The Republicans might be going 0-for-50, with both would be GOPers losing, by 260 votes in the 41st and by 31 votes in the 45th. [And Sharon Denise Dixon in the 24th. No love for Rhymefest though, who loses to incumbent Wilie Cochran.]
9:29pm: Things continue to move slightly in KloJo’s favor, with Prosser doing 3.2% worse than before. Hopefully, the trend continues. Prosser is underperforming in all areas except Dane County – which is explained by the fact that Madison has yet to report.
9:22pm: Prosser’s doing 2.4% worse than in the primary. However, the MKE suburbs’s are only 8%…which leaves plenty of room for him to pad his lead, sadly.
9:17pm: Chris Abele continues to crush for MKE County Exec, now 61-39 with 28% in.
Results:
Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
Chicago: AP
SC: SC SEC
Nevada: Clark County
9:15pm: Follow the party here.
9:10pm: More of Milwaukee’s reported now, which is enough improvement such that Prosser’s now 1.5% below his primary performance. KloJo will still need more to win this though.
9:06pm: According to Journal-Sentinel, Chris Abele now has a 60-40 lead over Jeff Stone with 10% reporting. Hopefully, this means we can expect some swings towards KloJo in Milwaukee County.
9:01pm: More results now – 12% in. Prosser’s underperforming everywhere…except Milwaukee County, Dane County, and the not contiguous “College Towns”, comprised of Eau Claire, La Crosse, and Portage counties. Hopefully, this will change.
8:56pm: Clarendon County has reported in South Carolina, and the Dem is now leading 52-47.
8:45pm: More of Wisconsin in now, and Prosser is now slightly underperforming (-0.23%). KloJo has a 202-vote lead, but the disgustingly Republican Milwaukee burbs haven’t reported just yet. (Keep in mind, Waukesha + Ozaukee + Washington gave Bush a larger margin than Milwaukee gave Kerry).
8:40pm: With our first Milwaukee County precincts, Jeff Stone is up by 1%. Prosser at par with his primary performance now (+0.06%).
8:34pm: Kenosha County is going 64-36 for Prosser, but it’s also quite heavily polarized. With the last dump, Prosser is doing 1% better than in the primary, about 6% over what he needs overall.
8:30pm: 2.5% reporting now, with Prosser doing about 2% better than in the primary (assuming uniform counties). It’s still early – this is plenty likely to change. We need Prosser to do about 5% worse for KloJo to win.
8:19pm: Ten precincts in now (does this mean I have to stop using just my fingers to count?). Prosser’s doing about 5% better than he did in the primary, but turnout in Dane County is 2x.
8:13pm: Hey, one precinct in Dane County (Madison)! Kloppenburg’s at 60%. Turnout in this one precinct is 2.5x what the average Dane County precinct was in the primary. (The flipside is that Prosser is doing 8.6% better in this one precinct than he did throughout Dane County in the first round.)
8:02pm: In South Carolina, heavily Dem HD-64 currently has a Republican lead of 5 votes, but only one of two counties has reported. (And I’m guessing not the Dem one, either.)
7:51pm: Checking out these Chicago results real quick – Rahm’s picks aren’t doing too well in the 24th and 25th wards. Crusty old jackass Bernard Stone is losing quite handily in the 50th, and Che “Rhymefest” Smith (co-writer of Kanye West’s “Jesus Walks”) is holding incumbent Willie Cochran to 53% in the 20th.
Once again, Central Time shall prevail!
And so it is, 15 minutes to takeoff.
On the docket:
Results:
Wisconsin: AP | Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
Chicago: AP
SC: SC SEC
Nevada: Clark County
With the release of census data for Wisconsin, we can also crunch population numbers by State Senate district – and to see potentially how redistricting could affect the various senators with recall campaigns mounted against them.
Without further ado, here’s the table – the eight rows highlighted in green are the eight recallable Republican senators.
As also shown in the data by Congressional district, there’s a shift from Milwaukee to Madison, population wise. The Milwaukee County based districts (3rd – 8th) are all quite underpopulated, while the Madison-based 16th, 26th, and 27th are now overpopulated. The MSP exurbs – now expanding into St. Croix County – have also grown, as shown in the overpopulation in the 10th (Harsdorf, R).
Will this affect the Recallable 8? I’m skeptical – it’s unlikely, IMO, that we’ll get anything friendly from an unfriendly trifecta. Likely, the relative stability means that not too much will have to change – most of the recallable eight have districts that were stable population wise. Harsdorf’s 10th will have to lose some – but that could be easily some Dem-leaning territory given to Robert Jauch’s 25th (D).
The Milwaukee County districts will need to expand outward…which could conveniently remove the Dem-leaning North Shore from Alberta “anything but” Darling’s 8th. Additionally, given that Milwaukee County is surrounded on three sides by heavily Republican suburbs, it’s pretty easy to slice that pizza. On the flip side, the growth in Dane County hasn’t reached a point yet where that would have to be sliced four ways.
So, unless we actually manage to recall Hopper, Darling, Kapanke, et al., the census numbers don’t necessarily indicate any help to come from Senate redistricting…especially not with an unfriendly legislature drawing the maps.
9:28pm: With the races for tonight settled, SSP will be calling it a night. Expect plenty of analysis in the coming days…
9:08pm: With thanks to Johnny Longtorso for the link, Dems hold Missouri SD-09, a KC-based seat. With seemingly all precincts reporting, Sly James also pulls into first for Mayor, with incumbent Mark Funkhouser falling into 3rd.
8:58pm: Here’s a shocker, and perhaps a sign of racial progress in an extremely segregated city: Rahm did better in wards represented by Black aldermen (59% to Chico’s 11%) than in those by White aldermen (55% to Chico’s 32%). CMB did better in the former – 20% – than the latter – 2%. Rahm also got 40% in wards represented by Hispanic aldermen, to Chico’s 32% and Del Valle’s 26%.
8:54pm: Backtracking on HD-99 in Connecticut. NBC is reporting that the Dem has held the East Haven-based seat.
8:44pm: Chicago wasn’t the only Midwestern city to have an election. While some of you might be surprised that the Midwest has two cities, in Kansas City, incumbent Mark Funkhouser is barely in second at 22.5%, with challengers Mike Burke and Sly James in first at 27.5% and 22.1%, respectively. Funkhouser is an indie; Burke and James Democrats.
8:39pm: Looks like CT is over. Says the Courant:
In nine special elections Tuesday night, Republicans picked up a net gain of two seats – one in the House and one in the state Senate.
Both sides were happy as Republicans said they had made inroads on traditionally Democratic territory, and Democrats said they had largely held back a Republican onslaught that was part of a national trend that started last year.
8:37pm: Ghosts of the machine? Gery Chico’s best ward tonight: 60% in the 14th, run by powerful ward boss – and prominent Chico supporter (and wife of IL Supreme Court justice Anna) – Ed Burke.
8:31pm: Dems also hold SD-6 in New Berlin, CT.
8:23pm: The Hartford Courant is reporting that Dems have lost another seat, HD-99, in “traditionally Republican-leaning Madison.”
8:11pm: Some down in the weeds City Council stuff: Sandi Jackson at 52% in the 7th; incumbent Sharon Denise Dixon has a plurality in the 24th with 19% (yes, 19%. Fortunately, we have runoffs for this reason). West Ridge stalwart (and Council Wars veteran…and IMO noted ass) Bernie Stone at 38% with Ward Dem Committeeman (and wife of State Sen Ira) Debra Silverstein at 33%.
8:04pm: The Courant is also reporting that Dems hold the West Hartford-based HD-20.
7:58pm: We’ll diversify into some non-Chicago news here – in Connecticut, with its slew of special elections for 9 Dem-held seats; Dems have lost the 13th SD. However, CT-02 loser Janet Peckinpaugh (R) loses again, as Dems hold the 36th HD.
7:53pm: Mayor Emanuel! Rahm’s dominance today is stunning – 57% on the South Side; 59% on the West Side, and 70% in his former North Side stomping grounds. Chico did well on the Southwest Side, 50% to Rahm’s 36%. Rahm just shy of 50% on the Northwest side, 49.1%.
7:47pm: We’re calling this one for Rahm. He’s over the 50% in 35 of 50 wards, including 75% in the Loop-based 42nd, Lincoln Park-based 43rd, and Lakeview-based 44th.
7:42pm: We’re now at 75% of the vote reporting, and Rahm’s at 54.44%. He’s still got some North Side strongholds to report, which is behind the curve at 72% in.
7:40pm: Alternatively, going by “side” of city, 66% of the Southwest Side is in, 60% of the Northwest Side; 55% of the West Side; 52% of the South Side, and 51% of the North Side. The Northwest side, which has some heavily Hispanic pockets will be a mixed blessing for Emanuel, who did represent part of the area in Congress. The North Side should turn out heavily for Rahm.
7:31pm: These votes are pretty evenly distributed. Using the ever-so-rough approximation of aggregating by the race of the incumbent alderman, 59% of precincts in wards represented by white alderman are reporting; 53% of precincts represented by Black and Hispanic aldermen each.
7:28pm: And with 56% reporting, Rahm’s up to 53.9%, Chico at 25.8%. Del Valle and CMB still in 3rd and 4th.
7:26pm: With 17% reporting, Rahm’s at 51.4% with Chico at 29.8. Del Valle’s in 3rd, and Carol “You were strung out on crack” Moseley Braun is in 4th. It will be interesting to see where these votes are coming from.
7:04pm: No results just yet, but there are quite a few downballot races for City Council, where many incumbent aldermen are not seeking re-election. Of particular interest to SSPers might be the 7th ward, where incumbent Ald. Sandi Jackson (wife of IL-02 Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.) is seeking re-election.
Let’s get this party started…polls close at 7pm Central Time. As my form of rebellion against the tyranny of the East Coast powers that me, all posts tonight will be stamped with Central time!
Results:
Chicago: Chicago BoE | Trib | Sun-Times
Connecticut: Hartford Courant
Kansas City: Kansas City Election Board
Four more states were released this week; again, we pick out the population by CD to see the relative standings of each district.
| District | Population | Deviation |
|---|---|---|
| AR-01 | 687,694 | (41,286) |
| AR-02 | 751,377 | 22,398 |
| AR-03 | 822,564 | 93,585 |
| AR-04 | 654,283 | (74,697) |
| Total: | 2,915,918 |
| District | Population | Deviation |
|---|---|---|
| IA-01 | 596,443 | (165,146) |
| IA-02 | 620,856 | (140,733) |
| IA-03 | 642,116 | (119,473) |
| IA-04 | 609,487 | (152,102) |
| IA-05 | 577,453 | (184,136) |
| Total: | 3,046,355 |
| District | Population | Deviation |
|---|---|---|
| IN-01 | 705,600 | (14,822) |
| IN-02 | 679,254 | (41,168) |
| IN-03 | 723,633 | 3,211 |
| IN-04 | 789,835 | 69,413 |
| IN-05 | 809,107 | 88,685 |
| IN-06 | 676,548 | (43,874) |
| IN-07 | 676,351 | (44,071) |
| IN-08 | 694,398 | (26,024) |
| IN-09 | 729,076 | 8,654 |
| Total: | 6,483,802 |
| District | Population | Deviation |
|---|---|---|
| MD-01 | 744,275 | 22,581 |
| MD-02 | 700,893 | (20,801) |
| MD-03 | 719,856 | (1,838) |
| MD-04 | 714,316 | (7,378) |
| MD-05 | 767,369 | 45,675 |
| MD-06 | 738,943 | 17,249 |
| MD-07 | 659,776 | (61,918) |
| MD-08 | 728,124 | 6,430 |
| Total: | 5,773,552 |
As David posted earlier, Census data for the first four states has been released.
Democrats don’t control redistricting in Virginia…but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be interesting to see what could happen.
Here’s one proposal, a 5-5-1 map, with the swing district being perfect for a Tom Perriello comeback.
Greetings, loved ones. Let’s take a journey…
We’ll start out in Hampton Roads:
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 727,092 | 14.63% | 4.50% | 3.69% | 40.87% | 58.15% | 30.98% | 68.93% |
| Accomack | 33,164 | 28.05% | 8.59% | 0.55% | 48.69% | 50.14% | 37.56% | 62.42% |
| Chesapeake City | 142,972 | 19.74% | 3.66% | 3.08% | 40.39% | 58.73% | 31.76% | 68.16% |
| Gloucester | 36,858 | 8.67% | 2.54% | 0.78% | 35.98% | 62.89% | 27.77% | 72.09% |
| Hanover | 61,394 | 7.67% | 2.06% | 1.54% | 29.98% | 69.24% | 20.95% | 78.94% |
| James City | 56,095 | 11.96% | 4.01% | 2.26% | 44.34% | 54.78% | 33.85% | 66.03% |
| Mathews | 8,978 | 9.17% | 1.16% | 0.35% | 35.55% | 63.53% | 29.96% | 69.92% |
| Middlesex | 10,959 | 18.05% | 1.51% | 0.34% | 39.81% | 59.02% | 30.43% | 69.52% |
| New Kent | 18,429 | 13.48% | 2.12% | 0.88% | 34.96% | 63.91% | 25.47% | 74.43% |
| Northampton | 12,389 | 36.55% | 7.05% | 0.67% | 57.70% | 41.19% | 48.86% | 51.03% |
| Poquoson City | 12,150 | 0.64% | 1.82% | 2.14% | 24.74% | 74.01% | 19.78% | 80.16% |
| Virginia Beach City | 301,190 | 14.05% | 5.77% | 5.97% | 44.17% | 54.80% | 33.24% | 66.67% |
| York | 32,514 | 6.34% | 3.29% | 3.56% | 35.23% | 63.69% | 27.26% | 72.65% |
Rob Wittman’s 1st district shifts eastward, now taking in part of the Northern Neck, the Virginia section of the Delmarva, and parts of Virginia Beach and Chesapeake City. A side consequence of this would be the turf war between Wittman and Scott Rigell, as this district is 22% from the old 1st and 48% from the old 2nd. Nothing much else to see here, Obama lost by 17, Deeds by 38, Steve Shannon (2009 Dem AG nominee) by 35, and Jody Wagner (2009 Dem LG nominee) by 29.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 727,700 | 38.14% | 7.08% | 3.93% | 64.62% | 34.46% | 51.85% | 48.03% |
| Chesapeake City | 79,237 | 47.98% | 5.64% | 2.50% | 69.76% | 29.49% | 59.19% | 40.73% |
| Hampton City | 96,757 | 42.01% | 4.83% | 2.51% | 63.23% | 35.91% | 50.30% | 49.57% |
| James City | 10,914 | 19.20% | 7.07% | 2.19% | 48.64% | 50.46% | 36.88% | 63.09% |
| Newport News City | 114,167 | 34.85% | 9.71% | 3.75% | 60.62% | 38.53% | 46.36% | 53.53% |
| Norfolk City | 242,803 | 43.11% | 6.65% | 3.29% | 71.03% | 28.06% | 60.08% | 39.79% |
| Virginia Beach City | 136,804 | 31.89% | 8.49% | 6.42% | 62.03% | 37.00% | 46.33% | 53.57% |
| Williamsburg City | 14,068 | 13.99% | 6.69% | 5.74% | 63.77% | 34.67% | 54.60% | 45.26% |
| York | 32,950 | 20.30% | 5.53% | 6.21% | 47.38% | 51.55% | 35.25% | 64.58% |
Bobby Scott’s current 3rd is clearly overpacked, with the choicest parts of Hampton, Norfolk, Newport News, and Portsmouth dumped into his district. We unpack the 3rd a bit, lending some of its Democratic strength here. This new district contains the entirety of Norfolk, parts of Newport News, Chesapeake, and VA Beach. There’s also an arm to grab Williamsburg, one of the few instances in this area of relatively white precincts voting Dem. 19% old 1st, 37% old 2nd, and 33% old 3rd, we get a district that Obama won by 30% (!!), and was even carried by all three Dems in 2009.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 727,246 | 50.91% | 5.89% | 1.84% | 71.40% | 27.79% | 60.71% | 39.13% |
| Charles City | 7,256 | 48.42% | 1.21% | 0.34% | 68.34% | 31.01% | 58.53% | 41.38% |
| Chesterfield | 56,895 | 42.34% | 17.85% | 2.96% | 66.34% | 32.93% | 54.21% | 45.58% |
| Hampton City | 40,679 | 67.49% | 3.84% | 1.38% | 82.45% | 16.87% | 74.80% | 25.03% |
| Henrico | 145,098 | 51.47% | 5.37% | 2.45% | 70.10% | 29.14% | 60.91% | 38.95% |
| Hopewell City | 22,591 | 37.04% | 6.55% | 0.80% | 55.49% | 43.56% | 37.38% | 62.39% |
| Isle Of Wight | 22,515 | 26.29% | 1.91% | 0.95% | 44.01% | 55.21% | 34.97% | 64.94% |
| Newport News City | 66,552 | 50.67% | 3.76% | 1.01% | 68.96% | 30.31% | 55.37% | 44.52% |
| Petersburg City | 32,420 | 79.11% | 3.75% | 0.82% | 88.64% | 10.19% | 80.99% | 18.97% |
| Portsmouth City | 95,535 | 53.26% | 3.06% | 1.07% | 69.27% | 29.97% | 59.76% | 40.18% |
| Prince George | 26,433 | 35.43% | 6.87% | 1.67% | 47.60% | 51.60% | 31.72% | 68.17% |
| Richmond City | 204,214 | 50.60% | 6.27% | 2.33% | 79.09% | 20.03% | 69.23% | 30.55% |
| Surry | 7,058 | 46.10% | 1.22% | 0.34% | 60.72% | 38.45% | 53.61% | 46.18% |
The 3rd, having been unpacked, sees its black percentage drop from 56% to 51%. However, the VAP also remains over 50% African-American. In what would be a relief to Randy Forbes, Petersburg is removed from this district, which becomes more Richmond-centric. 59% old 3rd, 20% old 7th, and 15% old 4th. Obama dominated here (no surprise), and all three Dems in 09 scored 20%+ wins.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 727,955 | 17.68% | 3.79% | 3.88% | 42.13% | 56.97% | 30.93% | 68.95% |
| Amelia | 12,690 | 23.10% | 2.29% | 0.21% | 38.11% | 60.81% | 28.85% | 71.10% |
| Chesterfield | 259,341 | 17.48% | 4.90% | 3.32% | 42.25% | 56.88% | 30.45% | 69.38% |
| Colonial Heights City | 17,411 | 10.24% | 3.87% | 3.32% | 28.95% | 69.63% | 16.83% | 83.14% |
| Dinwiddie | 28,001 | 32.87% | 2.41% | 0.44% | 48.45% | 50.62% | 37.34% | 62.60% |
| Fluvanna | 25,691 | 15.33% | 2.96% | 0.57% | 48.57% | 50.41% | 36.48% | 63.39% |
| Franklin City | 4,422 | 25.28% | 2.53% | 1.40% | 38.99% | 60.08% | 32.73% | 67.27% |
| Goochland | 21,717 | 19.25% | 2.10% | 1.04% | 38.31% | 60.84% | 29.11% | 70.77% |
| Hanover | 38,469 | 11.95% | 2.21% | 1.05% | 37.48% | 61.65% | 28.09% | 71.75% |
| Henrico | 161,837 | 9.88% | 4.46% | 10.20% | 43.75% | 55.40% | 31.29% | 68.58% |
| Isle Of Wight | 12,755 | 21.90% | 1.79% | 0.53% | 40.77% | 58.29% | 32.36% | 67.61% |
| Louisa | 33,153 | 17.71% | 2.30% | 0.48% | 45.45% | 53.29% | 34.58% | 65.34% |
| Nottoway | 15,853 | 39.28% | 3.84% | 0.32% | 48.84% | 50.07% | 41.58% | 58.28% |
| Powhatan | 28,046 | 13.63% | 1.79% | 0.47% | 29.31% | 69.78% | 20.03% | 79.85% |
| Prince George | 9,292 | 22.22% | 2.60% | 1.10% | 38.52% | 60.75% | 29.86% | 70.09% |
| Southampton | 8,698 | 24.88% | 0.86% | 0.39% | 39.95% | 59.19% | 33.08% | 66.89% |
| Suffolk City | 41,589 | 27.77% | 2.93% | 2.29% | 44.48% | 54.73% | 35.79% | 64.17% |
| Sussex | 8,990 | 57.33% | 2.49% | 0.46% | 57.72% | 41.49% | 42.28% | 57.72% |
With the eastward shift of the 1st, the 4th and 7th also rotate accordingly along the Richmond-Norfolk axis created by the 2nd and 3rd. Nothing to see here, other than we’ve cut out part of Forbes base and drew in much of the old 7th (53% is from the old 7th, compared to 43% old 4th). But Cantor could clearly run in the new 7th and Forbes in the new 4th. Dems in 09 lost by 30%+.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 727,351 | 29.89% | 3.43% | 2.03% | 57.47% | 41.45% | 47.35% | 52.54% |
| Albemarle | 98,970 | 9.70% | 5.47% | 4.67% | 58.43% | 40.36% | 49.41% | 50.48% |
| Amherst | 12,637 | 22.50% | 1.75% | 0.51% | 47.46% | 51.77% | 38.61% | 61.39% |
| Brunswick | 17,434 | 57.31% | 1.71% | 0.28% | 62.84% | 36.35% | 49.41% | 50.49% |
| Buckingham | 17,146 | 35.08% | 1.68% | 0.37% | 49.89% | 49.01% | 36.60% | 63.40% |
| Charlotte | 12,586 | 29.80% | 1.91% | 0.21% | 43.93% | 54.77% | 33.24% | 66.62% |
| Charlottesville City | 43,475 | 19.41% | 5.11% | 6.37% | 78.35% | 20.35% | 73.65% | 26.21% |
| Cumberland | 10,052 | 32.61% | 1.80% | 0.35% | 47.73% | 51.19% | 35.87% | 64.09% |
| Danville City | 43,055 | 48.30% | 2.89% | 0.94% | 59.13% | 40.02% | 44.93% | 54.96% |
| Emporia City | 5,927 | 62.53% | 4.42% | 0.73% | 65.04% | 34.28% | 47.57% | 52.35% |
| Franklin | 38,514 | 8.83% | 2.68% | 0.49% | 39.06% | 59.55% | 31.66% | 68.25% |
| Franklin City | 4,160 | 90.53% | 0.70% | 0.05% | 94.65% | 4.88% | 91.81% | 8.06% |
| Greensville | 12,243 | 59.80% | 1.41% | 0.29% | 63.88% | 35.38% | 52.64% | 47.36% |
| Halifax | 36,241 | 36.68% | 1.62% | 0.37% | 48.23% | 51.04% | 38.25% | 61.53% |
| Henry | 11,930 | 39.81% | 5.58% | 0.45% | 57.61% | 41.49% | 51.27% | 48.73% |
| Lunenburg | 12,914 | 34.75% | 3.64% | 0.19% | 47.84% | 51.33% | 37.45% | 62.52% |
| Lynchburg City | 25,110 | 53.21% | 2.53% | 0.67% | 71.04% | 27.58% | 61.07% | 38.72% |
| Martinsville City | 13,821 | 44.95% | 3.99% | 0.93% | 63.48% | 35.44% | 51.66% | 48.18% |
| Mecklenburg | 32,727 | 36.82% | 2.46% | 0.67% | 47.26% | 51.83% | 32.32% | 67.67% |
| Montgomery | 46,128 | 3.37% | 2.88% | 7.02% | 58.99% | 39.52% | 53.93% | 45.87% |
| Nelson | 15,020 | 13.10% | 3.06% | 0.45% | 53.99% | 44.84% | 46.23% | 53.67% |
| Pittsylvania | 37,893 | 26.92% | 1.56% | 0.19% | 42.81% | 56.26% | 32.76% | 67.24% |
| Prince Edward | 23,368 | 33.19% | 2.25% | 0.88% | 54.34% | 44.46% | 44.95% | 54.97% |
| Roanoke | 3,003 | 3.13% | 0.93% | 0.27% | 40.93% | 57.70% | 31.39% | 68.51% |
| Roanoke City | 97,032 | 28.46% | 5.51% | 1.76% | 61.15% | 37.76% | 51.89% | 48.01% |
| Southampton | 9,872 | 48.14% | 1.30% | 0.12% | 57.84% | 41.21% | 48.82% | 51.13% |
| Suffolk City | 42,996 | 57.15% | 2.78% | 0.92% | 69.00% | 30.31% | 55.41% | 44.47% |
| Sussex | 3,097 | 60.35% | 1.42% | 0.23% | 69.11% | 30.45% | 57.34% | 42.66% |
A leaner, meaner 5th for Tom Perriello. We could have also tried to bring back Rick Boucher, but when you’re forced to decide between a young up-and-coming progressive vs. a career Blue Dog in a more hostile district, the choice is obvious. This is a pretty blatant gerrymander, meant to string together all the Dems in Southside and to connect them to Dems in Charlottesville, Roanoke, … and even Blacksburg. The result is a district Obama won by 16%, a massive improvement from the 3% loss he earned in the old 5th. 63% of the population is retained, along with 19% of the old 6th. Deeds kept it respectable, losing by 5; Shannon lost by 6 and Wagner by 3.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 727,482 | 4.65% | 1.92% | 0.90% | 37.28% | 61.12% | 30.64% | 69.28% |
| Bland | 6,824 | 3.34% | 0.57% | 0.26% | 29.20% | 68.64% | 24.06% | 75.88% |
| Bristol City | 17,835 | 5.66% | 1.24% | 0.68% | 36.21% | 62.22% | 27.48% | 72.44% |
| Buchanan | 24,098 | 2.56% | 0.39% | 0.22% | 46.52% | 51.99% | 36.74% | 63.22% |
| Carroll | 30,042 | 0.59% | 2.58% | 0.18% | 32.67% | 65.08% | 26.96% | 72.97% |
| Craig | 5,190 | 0.10% | 0.69% | 0.15% | 33.46% | 64.67% | 32.17% | 67.76% |
| Dickenson | 15,903 | 0.32% | 0.54% | 0.11% | 48.54% | 49.22% | 39.46% | 60.46% |
| Floyd | 15,279 | 1.83% | 2.70% | 0.23% | 39.08% | 59.09% | 34.08% | 65.77% |
| Franklin | 17,645 | 6.66% | 2.23% | 0.35% | 34.81% | 63.58% | 29.69% | 70.26% |
| Galax City | 7,042 | 6.23% | 14.04% | 0.53% | 43.80% | 54.83% | 37.38% | 62.40% |
| Giles | 17,286 | 1.51% | 1.21% | 0.32% | 40.95% | 57.24% | 36.56% | 63.35% |
| Grayson | 15,533 | 2.06% | 2.68% | 0.10% | 34.35% | 62.88% | 29.71% | 70.29% |
| Henry | 42,221 | 16.80% | 4.45% | 0.43% | 39.85% | 58.67% | 32.38% | 67.61% |
| Lee | 25,587 | 3.70% | 1.59% | 0.22% | 34.89% | 63.13% | 25.71% | 74.27% |
| Montgomery | 48,264 | 4.48% | 2.50% | 3.89% | 41.25% | 57.32% | 35.04% | 64.83% |
| Norton City | 3,958 | 6.32% | 1.72% | 1.41% | 49.14% | 49.21% | 39.34% | 60.55% |
| Patrick | 18,490 | 5.87% | 2.40% | 0.23% | 33.75% | 64.37% | 29.86% | 70.04% |
| Pittsylvania | 25,613 | 14.91% | 2.89% | 0.42% | 30.51% | 68.54% | 23.11% | 76.89% |
| Pulaski | 34,872 | 5.04% | 1.24% | 0.51% | 39.32% | 58.85% | 34.84% | 65.12% |
| Radford City | 16,408 | 7.79% | 2.35% | 1.56% | 53.97% | 44.54% | 45.33% | 54.56% |
| Roanoke | 59,667 | 5.22% | 2.27% | 3.29% | 39.92% | 58.89% | 32.83% | 67.01% |
| Russell | 28,897 | 0.81% | 0.95% | 0.18% | 42.91% | 55.59% | 37.55% | 62.42% |
| Salem City | 24,802 | 7.11% | 2.42% | 1.62% | 41.63% | 57.13% | 33.39% | 66.45% |
| Scott | 23,177 | 0.58% | 1.01% | 0.16% | 27.59% | 70.68% | 21.14% | 78.81% |
| Smyth | 32,208 | 1.99% | 1.64% | 0.25% | 34.46% | 63.54% | 26.38% | 73.53% |
| Tazewell | 45,078 | 2.96% | 0.66% | 0.64% | 32.80% | 65.65% | 26.58% | 73.36% |
| Washington | 54,876 | 1.26% | 1.32% | 0.37% | 32.91% | 65.62% | 25.10% | 74.87% |
| Wise | 41,452 | 5.16% | 1.14% | 0.34% | 35.33% | 63.05% | 29.55% | 70.33% |
| Wythe | 29,235 | 2.80% | 0.96% | 0.44% | 32.88% | 65.70% | 27.24% | 72.63% |
There simply isn’t enough Democratic strength down here to support both Perriello and Boucher, and protecting Boucher would likely be a poor investment given the political trends. We cede this district to Morgan Griffith, who retains 81% of his current territory. With the adjustments to help Perriello, we see a bit of a shift rightward, with Obama losing by 24. Again, all the 09 Dems lost by 35%+.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 726,966 | 7.04% | 3.79% | 1.10% | 36.94% | 61.83% | 29.18% | 70.72% |
| Alleghany | 16,250 | 4.68% | 1.08% | 0.23% | 48.22% | 50.41% | 61.23% | 38.71% |
| Amherst | 19,716 | 16.76% | 2.05% | 0.46% | 38.06% | 60.93% | 28.68% | 71.25% |
| Appomattox | 14,973 | 20.08% | 1.12% | 0.23% | 34.61% | 64.26% | 25.65% | 74.33% |
| Augusta | 73,750 | 3.97% | 2.07% | 0.50% | 29.47% | 69.35% | 22.53% | 77.40% |
| Bath | 4,731 | 4.69% | 2.13% | 0.15% | 42.89% | 55.47% | 63.47% | 36.47% |
| Bedford | 68,676 | 5.74% | 1.59% | 1.03% | 30.75% | 68.16% | 22.87% | 77.07% |
| Bedford City | 6,222 | 20.19% | 2.15% | 0.66% | 44.18% | 54.75% | 35.25% | 64.75% |
| Botetourt | 33,148 | 3.03% | 1.07% | 0.53% | 32.71% | 65.90% | 28.56% | 71.26% |
| Buena Vista City | 6,650 | 5.22% | 1.55% | 0.44% | 45.73% | 52.91% | 39.05% | 60.95% |
| Campbell | 54,842 | 14.16% | 1.67% | 1.00% | 31.34% | 67.58% | 22.90% | 76.92% |
| Covington City | 5,961 | 12.51% | 1.54% | 0.57% | 55.40% | 43.33% | 65.79% | 34.07% |
| Frederick | 42,487 | 2.93% | 4.92% | 0.80% | 36.23% | 62.27% | 23.78% | 76.07% |
| Greene | 18,403 | 6.34% | 4.24% | 1.40% | 38.43% | 60.29% | 27.37% | 72.53% |
| Harrisonburg City | 48,914 | 6.36% | 15.67% | 3.51% | 57.54% | 41.21% | 42.16% | 57.67% |
| Highland | 2,321 | 0.26% | 0.78% | 0.17% | 37.97% | 59.85% | 44.93% | 55.07% |
| Lexington City | 7,042 | 9.66% | 3.85% | 2.20% | 62.24% | 36.87% | 60.53% | 39.34% |
| Lynchburg City | 50,458 | 17.40% | 3.30% | 3.37% | 37.43% | 61.36% | 30.31% | 69.59% |
| Madison | 13,308 | 9.78% | 1.77% | 0.56% | 42.72% | 56.10% | 30.46% | 69.47% |
| Page | 24,042 | 1.94% | 1.55% | 0.30% | 40.76% | 58.16% | 29.73% | 70.15% |
| Roanoke | 29,706 | 4.84% | 1.92% | 1.67% | 36.46% | 62.48% | 29.68% | 70.19% |
| Rockbridge | 22,307 | 2.66% | 1.33% | 0.47% | 42.64% | 56.22% | 41.88% | 58.07% |
| Rockingham | 76,314 | 1.67% | 5.34% | 0.60% | 31.36% | 67.40% | 21.75% | 78.14% |
| Shenandoah | 41,993 | 1.75% | 6.14% | 0.52% | 35.96% | 62.45% | 25.00% | 74.85% |
| Staunton City | 23,746 | 12.15% | 2.16% | 0.78% | 50.56% | 48.39% | 41.40% | 58.54% |
| Waynesboro City | 21,006 | 10.61% | 6.36% | 0.73% | 44.09% | 54.35% | 30.97% | 68.91% |
Again, nothing to see here. Goodlatte retains 68% of his old territory, a strip along the Blue Ridge. The 2009 Dems lost by 40%+; Warner only won by 10 here in 2008.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 727,428 | 15.09% | 7.03% | 1.94% | 46.08% | 52.82% | 33.13% | 66.74% |
| Caroline | 28,545 | 29.34% | 3.36% | 0.62% | 55.45% | 43.48% | 43.47% | 56.47% |
| Clarke | 14,034 | 5.32% | 3.49% | 0.90% | 46.52% | 51.68% | 36.59% | 63.31% |
| Culpeper | 46,689 | 15.78% | 8.90% | 1.30% | 44.59% | 54.26% | 29.61% | 70.25% |
| Essex | 11,151 | 38.09% | 3.13% | 0.77% | 54.70% | 44.35% | 39.19% | 60.81% |
| Fauquier | 65,203 | 8.16% | 6.41% | 1.28% | 42.71% | 56.19% | 31.10% | 68.77% |
| Frederick | 35,818 | 5.39% | 8.59% | 1.76% | 41.35% | 57.16% | 26.68% | 73.19% |
| Fredericksburg City | 24,286 | 22.64% | 10.73% | 2.84% | 63.60% | 35.27% | 50.84% | 48.94% |
| King & Queen | 6,945 | 28.44% | 2.65% | 0.24% | 51.77% | 47.58% | 41.03% | 58.87% |
| King George | 23,584 | 17.87% | 3.35% | 1.16% | 42.71% | 56.22% | 29.69% | 70.18% |
| King William | 15,935 | 17.69% | 2.03% | 0.74% | 39.87% | 59.20% | 28.40% | 71.54% |
| Lancaster | 11,391 | 27.95% | 1.04% | 0.57% | 46.63% | 52.57% | 35.16% | 64.59% |
| Northumberland | 12,330 | 25.33% | 3.10% | 0.30% | 44.72% | 54.56% | 34.39% | 65.41% |
| Orange | 33,481 | 12.71% | 3.40% | 0.73% | 44.98% | 53.83% | 32.66% | 67.28% |
| Prince William | 48,819 | 7.26% | 8.41% | 5.35% | 40.63% | 58.36% | 29.10% | 70.79% |
| Rappahannock | 7,373 | 4.35% | 3.09% | 0.53% | 47.79% | 50.56% | 42.20% | 57.70% |
| Richmond | 9,254 | 30.30% | 5.51% | 0.43% | 43.20% | 55.86% | 31.69% | 68.26% |
| Spotsylvania | 122,397 | 15.25% | 7.58% | 2.31% | 46.05% | 52.91% | 31.51% | 68.35% |
| Stafford | 128,961 | 16.97% | 9.21% | 2.81% | 46.37% | 52.69% | 32.44% | 67.39% |
| Warren | 37,575 | 4.62% | 3.51% | 0.96% | 43.39% | 55.06% | 31.32% | 68.58% |
| Westmoreland | 17,454 | 28.02% | 5.74% | 0.57% | 54.64% | 44.40% | 41.38% | 58.57% |
| Winchester City | 26,203 | 10.93% | 15.42% | 2.33% | 52.02% | 46.66% | 39.18% | 60.67% |
We could try to screw Eric Cantor out of a district, but again, that wouldn’t necessarily be successful. Democratic voters(which would have likely had to come from NoVA) are better kept in the three decently solidly Dem NoVA districts. Without touching the Dems in NoVA though, we still try to draw as Democratic a district as possible, taking in various parts of the Northern Neck and the DC exurbs. Hopefully, those areas – Fauquier, Culpeper, Winchester, etc. – will keep drifing left as DC’s influence grows. While Obama lost by 7 here, there are still miles to go, with the 09 Dems having lost by 30% or more. 56% of this district is from the old 1st, 17% from the old 7th, and 21% from the old 10th (showing some of the growth it’s experienced).
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 727,839 | 9.84% | 13.29% | 11.17% | 63.39% | 35.60% | 53.71% | 46.10% |
| Alexandria City | 139,966 | 21.78% | 16.09% | 6.02% | 71.73% | 27.26% | 62.76% | 37.04% |
| Arlington | 207,627 | 8.49% | 15.11% | 9.60% | 71.71% | 27.12% | 65.49% | 34.26% |
| Fairfax | 82,317 | 2.50% | 6.38% | 16.70% | 56.50% | 42.63% | 48.79% | 51.06% |
| Falls Church City | 12,332 | 4.31% | 8.99% | 9.42% | 69.56% | 29.19% | 64.92% | 34.94% |
| Loudoun | 285,597 | 7.31% | 12.76% | 13.32% | 53.59% | 45.48% | 38.92% | 60.94% |
Again, a shameless gerrymander. But, we did manage to keep Alexandria and Arlington intact. Jim Moran probably needs a little more support than most Dems, which also factored into this decision. He keeps 52% of his old territory, with the balance coming from the 10th. Obama romped with a 28% victory, and Deeds even scored an 8% win here.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 726,728 | 6.69% | 14.60% | 20.33% | 59.46% | 39.56% | 48.16% | 51.68% |
| Fairfax | 677,449 | 6.75% | 14.82% | 20.12% | 59.69% | 39.33% | 48.49% | 51.34% |
| Fairfax City | 22,565 | 4.75% | 15.76% | 15.21% | 57.69% | 41.16% | 46.91% | 52.98% |
| Loudoun | 26,714 | 6.85% | 7.98% | 29.86% | 54.50% | 44.69% | 37.43% | 62.46% |
The 10th has grown massively, and accordingly, needed to contract. This iteration of the 10th becomes an almost all-Fairfax affair, with a slight section of Loudoun added. This would have swingy-ish characteristics in bad years, but Obama won by 20 and Deeds only lost by 3.5; both Shannon and Wagner won here as well. Only 30%, though, is from the old 10th (30%), with more being from the old 11th (54%); this district is probably a bit more inner suburban than outer (think Annandale v. Sterling).
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 727,237 | 18.72% | 21.55% | 9.69% | 61.05% | 38.08% | 46.98% | 52.89% |
| Fairfax | 321,960 | 15.98% | 19.52% | 12.30% | 62.16% | 36.93% | 50.62% | 49.23% |
| Manassas City | 37,821 | 13.72% | 31.40% | 4.98% | 55.17% | 43.85% | 38.00% | 61.92% |
| Manassas Park City | 14,273 | 12.98% | 32.54% | 8.97% | 59.49% | 39.47% | 39.83% | 60.17% |
| Prince William | 353,183 | 21.99% | 21.90% | 7.84% | 60.51% | 38.66% | 43.76% | 56.10% |
Gerry Connolly’s district shifts southward a bit, taking in more of Prince William County. But unlike before, this district takes in the southern (and Democratic) part of PW. Connolly retains 47% of his old territory, but the parts he sheds he won’t necessarily miss. Interestingly, Obama did better here than in the new 10th (23 point win), but this area swung harder against the Dems in 09, with Shannon and Wagner losing by 1 and Deeds by 6. This, of course, is still an improvement over the 10-point loss Deeds suffered in the current 11th.