Author: jeffmd

We were going to wait for all results to be fully official before announcing our contest results (and awarding babka), but Joe “Norm Coleman” Miller seems to refuse to give it up (not even at the urging of Norm “Norm Coleman” Coleman).

Results were calculated as follows:

• For the two-way races, we asked you for a winner and a margin. We take the difference of your predicted margin and the real margin (including third party candidates), and add that to your “regular” score.
  

• For the three-way races, we asked you for the percentage each candidate was going to get. Again, we take the difference of your prediction and the actual percentage earned by the candidate, and add that to your “three-way” score.
  

• Your total score is the sum of the “regular” and “three way” scores, with a lower score being better.
  

• If you didn’t enter a margin/vote percentage (or we couldn’t understand what you entered), you got a “penalty” equal to the maximum score from a given race.

So a few summary statistics, by race:

• CT-Gov: 69% of you correctly guessed that Dan Malloy would win. Average margin was Malloy by 1.52%.
  

• OH-Gov: 57% of you correctly guessed that John Kasich would win. Average margin was Kasich by 1.53%.
  

• OR-Gov: 90% of you correctly guessed that John Kitzhaber would win, on average by 3.39%.
  

• CO-Sen: 57% of you correctly guessed that Michael Bennet would win. However, the average margin was Ken Buck by 0.40%
  

• NV-Sen: 66% of you correctly guessed that Harry Reid would win, on average by 0.30%.
  

• WI-Sen: 91% of you correctly guessed that Ron Johnson would win, on average by 5.17%.
  

• FL-25: Only 47% of you guessed that David Rivera would win, but the average predicted margin was Rivera by 0.45%.
  

• PA-07: 75% of you correctly guessed that Pat Meehan would win, by 2.96% on average.
  

• VA-11: 79% of you guessed that Gerry Connolly would win, and correctly so; the average predicted margin was 2.81%.

In the three-way races:

• MN-Gov: Average prediction was Dayton 44.45; Emmer 39.68; Horner 14.75.
  

• AK-Sen: Average prediction was McAdams 31.88; Miller 33.36; Murkowski 33.62.

This could almost be a testament to the wisdom of crowds (…or alternatively, the central limit theorem) – as a collective whole, only one race would have been called incorrectly. If averages were an entry, it would have placed 21st.

So, of course, having done our best Census Bureau impression (at least we haven’t congratulated ourselves excessively!) – who won?

itskevin, abgin, and UpstateNYer come on down! (And by “come on down”, I mean “email DavidNYC with contact information” …) Sidenote: remember, you had to have submitted your entries before 5pm EDT on Election Day – and had (and still have) a valid account at the time of announcement of contest.

Full results are available here. Thanks to everyone who participated!

If you didn’t win, don’t worry, there may or may not be a prediction contest for the Chicago mayoral race, too. I see David’s babka and raise him one deep dish. That, or some dead fish wrapped in a copy of the Trib, depending on how we feel.  

Without further ado, here’s what SSP Labs has to say on this most recent round of reapportionment, applying the Huntington-Hill method to the new Census data.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (12/10-12, Wisconsin voters, no trendlines):

Herb Kohl (D-inc): 51

JB Van Hollen (R): 38

Undecided: 11

Herb Kohl (D-inc): 48

Paul Ryan (R): 42

Undecided: 11

Herb Kohl (D-inc): 49

Tommy Thompson (R): 40

Undecided: 11

Russ Feingold (D): 52

JB Van Hollen (R): 41

Undecided: 7

Russ Feingold (D): 50

Paul Ryan (R): 43

Undecided: 7

Russ Feingold (D): 49

Tommy Thompson (R): 40

Undecided: 11

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Oh, the difference a likely voter screen makes. PPP tests the Wisconsin Senate race, and finds Herb Kohl leading three of the more prominent Wisconsin GOPers: Attorney General JB Van Hollen, 1st District Congressman Paul Ryan, and former Governor and HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson by anywhere from 6 to 13 points. Kohl is reasonably well liked (though not nearly at Klobuchar-esque levels) at 50/43.

Of course, Kohl is not the youngest guy around, and should he retire and Russ Feingold be interested in staging a comeback, Feingold would be in rather good shape, leading the three GOP contenders from 7 to 11 points. Interestingly, Feingold’s favorables, at 50/43, are actually better than Ron Johnson’s, who is barely above water at 42/39. Oh, the difference a likely voter screen makes.

This poll gives us some reason to be optimistic, but let’s not forget that a year out from November 2010 – before Ron Johnson was on anyone’s radar – Feingold was leading Thompson by 9 and in commanding position against all others. One hopes 2012 will be different!

Public Policy Polling (11/29-12/1, registered Democrats)

Vicki Kennedy (D): 22

Barney Frank (D): 17

Mike Capuano (D): 15

Deval Patrick (D): 13

Stephen Lynch (D): 7

Ed Markey (D): 7

Tom Menino (D): 3

Tim Murray (D): 1

Undecided: 15

MoE: ±6.2%

Perhaps the better question to ask here is who didn’t PPP poll in asking Dems who they want to take on Republican incumbent Scott Brown. Ted Kennedy’s widow Vicki leads at 22, followed by the one and only Congressman Barney Frank at 17 and Boston/Cambridge Congressman (and special election primary second-place finisher) Mike Capuano at 15. Recently re-elected Governor Deval Patrick is fourth at 13, followed by two more Congressmen, Stephen Lynch and Ed Markey at 7 apiece. Boston mayor Tom Menino gets 3, while recently re-elected Lieutenant Governor Tim Murray gets 1.

The general election half of this poll has Scotty leading all the Dems, but many of our challengers remain relatively unknown quantities, with even 44% of Dems having no opinion of Capuano, 45% having no opinion of Lynch, and 36% having no opinion of Markey.

This field is still wide open…let’s just be happy Martha Coakley isn’t seeking redemption.

Public Policy Polling (12/4-5, “Minnesota voters”)

Amy Klobuchar (DFL-inc): 56

Michele Bachmann (R): 39

Undecided: 4

Amy Klobuchar (DFL-inc): 54

Norm Coleman (R): 40

Undecided: 6

Amy Klobuchar (DFL-inc): 56

Tom Emmer (R): 38

Undecided: 6

Amy Klobuchar (DFL-inc): 53

Tim Pawlenty (R): 43

Undecided: 4

Amy Klobuchar (DFL-inc):: 52

Erik Paulsen (R): 34

Undecided: 14

MoE: ±3.2%

PPP’s latest has DFL incumbent Amy Klobuchar doing extraordinarily well a little less than two years out, besting all five GOP challengers by spreads of 10 to 18 points.

Klobuchar remains extremely popular, with approval ratings in almost unseen territory of +30, at 59/29! Her Class II counterpart, Al Franken, is barely above water at 45/42.

Also of note, Tom Emmer’s gubernatorial campaign (and potential post-election monkey business) have not reflected on him well, he records favorables at 37/49…almost as bad as tea party queen Bachmann’s 37/51.

Hopefully, this is the last update we’ll have to make about the Attorney General’s race!

We went through and did another county-by-county canvass, and we now have Kamala Harris (D) leading Steve Cooley (R) by 37,662 votes, 4,251,331 to 4,213,669. This count is about 100,000 votes ahead of the SoS.

Again we sync up the estimates, and my estimation of the number of unprocessed ballots differs from the UBR for the following counties:

• Butte: +222; the county reports 18,229 ballots left.
  

• Del Norte: -1,002 for votes added since November 8.
  

• El Dorado: -1,795 for votes added since November 9.
  

• Fresno: -8,687 for votes added since November 12.
  

• Imperial: -6,089 for votes added since November 6.
  

• Kern: -4,831 for votes added since November 8.
  

• Marin: -19,108 for votes added since November 8.
  

• Mariposa: -267; this is the county’s “final update.”
  

• Nevada: -4,730; the county estimated 4,730 outstanding on November 8 but has added 6,692 votes since then.
  

• Orange: -53,404; the county reports 912 ballots left.
  

• Placer: +27,956; vote counts have not been updated since November 3.
  

• Riverside: -11,300; the county reports 18,400 ballots left.
  

• San Diego: -44,970; the county reports 27,000 ballots left.
  

• San Francisco: -18,892 for votes added since November 8.
  

• San Luis Obispo: -826 for votes added since November 12.
  

• San Mateo: -26,812; this is the county’s “final unofficial results.”
  

• Santa Clara: -18,100; the county estimated 18,100 outstanding on November 10 but has added 18,174 votes since then.
  

• Tehama: -1,976 for votes added since November 10.
  

• Ventura: -6,142 for votes added since November 11.
  

• Yolo: -9,791; the county reports 0 ballots unprocessed.

Therefore, we estimate 428,179 ballots left unprocessed (compared to the SoS’ 671,594.)

The remaining territory is pretty much a wash, with our estimates having Harris gaining 47 votes to pad her margin.

As with last time, the ballots reporting have been more friendly to Kamala than before; she’s doing 0.36% better than we expected her to based on the November 13 canvass and 0.65% better than expected based on the November 8 canvass. Here are the relative swings in each county since the November 13th and 8th updates.

Movers and shakers below the fold.

Update: You can check out our spreadsheets, too. We’re about 138,000 votes ahead of the SoS.

---

I was pessimistic last time about Kamala Harris’ chances, but daman09’s excellent analysis inspired me to do another county-by-county canvass of results with new projections. And as the title would give it away, things are looking MUCH better for Kamala.

Going county-by-county for the most recent updates, Harris now leads by 4,565 votes, 4,141,477 to Cooley’s 4,137,212.

While the SoS estimates 898,458 votes left to process, I estimate about 636,669, using the most recent estimates from individual counties when available and adjustments to the UBR counts where appropriate.

In the counties left standing, I’m conservatively estimating Harris’ weighted performance to be 46.08% to Cooley’s 45.14%, which should be good for another 5,993 votes.

Perhaps most significantly, Harris is performing better in the Abs/Prov/VBMs that have been added. Based on her performance as of our November 8th county-by-county canvass and and the origin of the 1,042,711 tabulated since then, we would have expected Kamala to outperform Cooley by 0.84%, for a margin of 8,707. But instead, she’s actually outperformed Cooley by 2.28%, improving her margin by 23,754.

Her swings in counties are as follows:

My estimation of the number of unprocessed ballots differs from the UBR for the following counties:

• Butte: +222, per the county update.
  

• Contra Costa: -9,411 to adjust for votes added since November 12.
  

• Imperial: -5,557 to adjust for votes added since November 6.
  

• Los Angeles: -55,762 to adjust for votes added November 12.
  

• Marin: -19,108 to adjust for votes added since November 8.
  

• Monterey: -27,126 to adjust for votes added since November 8.
  

• Orange: -43,227, per the county update.
  

• Placer: +27,956 to restore the estimates to those on November 6. Placer County has not updated its results since November 3.
  

• Riverside: -900, per the county update.
  

• San Bernardino: -7,000 per the county update.
  

• San Diego: -11,470 per the county update.
  

• San Francisco: -10,037 to adjust for votes added since November 8.
  

• San Joaquin: -32,279 to adjust for votes added since November 8.
  

• San Mateo: -26,812; San Mateo has actually added 34,601 votes since November 8; I’ve now assumed 0.
  

• Santa Clara: -9,686 to adjust for votes added since November 10.
  

• Santa Cruz: -20,592 to adjust for votes added since November 8.
  

• Yolo: -9,791 per the County; the County now lists no unprocessed ballots.
  

• Yuba: -1,209 per the County’s labeling of its latest update as “Final.”

Movers and shakers below:

It’s been less than a week since Bill Brady conceded defeat to Governor Quinn, but nomination petitions for Mayor (and Aldermen) can be filed starting next Monday, November 15th, and due a week after that, November 22nd.

Last time we discussed this race, it seemed like everyone and their mother was considering running. But since then, the 800-pound-fuckin’ gorilla Rahm Emanuel has jumped in, and is taking up most of the oxygen in the room.

Many people have declared that they’re not running now, but notably:

• Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart is out.
  

• Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. is, well, otherwise occupied.
  

• Congressman Luis Gutierrez is staying put.
  

• Congressman Mike Quigley is a no.
  

• Daley critic 2nd Ward Alderman Bob Fioretti was originally in, but dropped out after announcing he has cancer.

So who’s actually in?

• RAAAAHM.
  

• IL-07 Rep. Danny Davis
  

• City Clerk Miguel Del Valle
  

• State Senator James Meeks
  

• Daley appointee-turned-critic Gery Chico
  

• Cook County Board of Review member Larry Rogers
  

• Former US Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, and possibly:
  

• Soon-to-be former US Senator Roland Burris

As the Trib suggests, this compressed timeframe might make it hard for any of the candidates to build a true ward-by-ward organization – and candidates may be relying on the aldermanic machines to turn out some votes. Plenty of endorsements have flown around…and can probably be shown visually (we’ll keep this updated as more endorsements roll out). Green for Emanuel, yellow for Chico, red for Del Valle, blue for Davis.

Sourced partially from StateVote from the National Conference of State Legislatures (PDF). Note that “seats” refers to “projected seats after 2010”.

A few notes:

• Arizona: Uses a bipartisan commission.
  

• California: Will be done by commission following passage of Prop 20.
  

• Florida: Amendment 6 mandates compactness and community of interest standards.
  

• Georgia: Underwent mid-decade redistricting under GOP control.
  

• Iowa: Uses a nonpartisan commission, but the legislature has veto power.
  

• New Jersey: Uses a bipartisan commission with a 11th wild card member.
  

• New York: Control of the State Senate remains uncertain, with three seats still in the balance.
  

• North Carolina: Governor Bev Perdue does not have veto power, meaning the GOP controls the entire process.
  

• Oregon: Control of the State Senate remains uncertain, with two seats still in the balance.
  

• Texas: Underwent mid-decade redistricting under GOP control.
  

• Washington: Uses a bipartisan commission. Control of the State Senate remains uncertain, with three seats still in the balance.
  

Notably, we’re not that screwed. Control of the FLOHPA (+MI) set of swing states remains under the GOP trifecta, just as it was in 2000.

Update: Err. DCal points out a good point that Santa Clara’s reported an extra 86k votes since their last update. That means, well, Kamala doesn’t stand to gain as much. Revised, we’re saying Kamala will gain about 55,000 votes…leaving her about 7,300 short.

Hate to pull the roller coaster on y’all, but I’d rather be realistic than unrealistically optimistic.

---

After combing through the individual county websites and aggregating the information with the latest Unprocessed Ballots Report (UBR), Kamala Harris is actually down 62,258 votes thanks to a large number of votes of San Diego and Orange Counties reporting beyond the latest UBR.

We’ve adjusted the UBR for the new results from each County on top of the latest SoS report – for example, the UBR lists 84,005 votes left to process in the OC, but 29,651 more votes were added in today’s OC update; therefore, we’re using 54,354 ballots left outstanding in Orange. Given all this, we actually project Kamala Harris to pick up 70,612 votes in the ballots left outstanding (again, assuming the same breakdown in the Abs/Prov/VBM ballots as the ballots already counted) – meaning she’d win by 8,354.

But even then, Harris has been outdoing that in the few examples where counties have more fully reporting. I don’t buy into the “bellwether” theory, but consider San Benito. On Saturday, Harris was trailing by 41 votes in San Benito; today, she’s winning San Benito by 226 votes. Just one example, but – if you buy the bellwether theory – a powerful one!

We’ll keep updating as more results roll in – we think a county-by-county update encompasses results more fully than just using the SoS update, and lets us better manage the timeframe issue.

Better yet, not all of Harris’ improvement is attributable to the methodology switch – by yesterday’s method, Harris would lose by only 48 votes!

Movers and shakers below: