Author: jeffmd

Update: A few more counties have added results, Harris’s deficit has grown to 36,800 votes. This was a result of 85,000 new votes in Orange, 17k in Riverside, and 35.5k in San Francisco. I’ve subtracted these from the “unprocessed” totals, and the new projection says Harris stands to gain 1,500 in the remaining ballots uncounted.

However, there is a time gap between the ballots outstanding estimate and the number of votes counting – more likely than not, we’re overestimating the number of Orange, San Diego, and Riverside ballots outstanding – which of course means that Harris has more upside potential in the remaining ballots.  We’ll keep a close eye on the situation and will update accordingly as more data are released tomorrow.

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As of last update, San Francisco DA Kamala Harris (D) is trailing Los Angeles County DA Steve Cooley by 22,817 votes out of 7,659,341 counted so far.

According to the Unprocessed Ballot Report (PDF), there are still 2,342,664 ballots uncounted. Sidenote: Don’t you love Debra Bowen and what she’s done with the SoS’s office? Susan Bysiewicz, take notes!

What does this mean?

Well, we can analyze the relative composition of the remaining outstanding ballots, and the news isn’t the best for Harris.

Harris’ statewide weighted average performance for the unprocessed ballots (weighted by the number of votes outstanding) is 45.55% to Cooley’s 45.95%. This is actually a notch down from the 45.64% Harris has received in all counties so far.

This is mostly due to a large number of outstanding ballots in San Diego and Orange Counties. While LA, SF, Alameda, Santa Clara, and Contra Costa will help to offset this, they will be offset by Riverside, San Bern, and also possibly death-by-thousand-cuts in the various counties in the Central Valley.

From this – provided we assume that unprocessed ballots break down the same as the counties they are from thus far – we can estimate that Harris is on pace to fall another 9,486 votes behind Cooley.

For Harris to overcome her 23k deficit, we can also say that Harris will need to do 0.69% better among the uncounted ballots than she has thus far.

Here are the top 12 counties that will pad Cooley’s margin:

And where we estimate Harris to get an advantage:

The 34 counties we haven’t listed are expected to lose Harris another 23,531 votes, margin-wise.

Again, this analysis is fraught with assumptions, but gives us a useful picture of where things stand. We’re not taking into account any macro influences – such as the possibility of provisional ballots skewing Democratic – here, and given the sheer number of outstanding ballots – 23% of the total cast – much remains uncertain.  

1:57: In other news, it looks like the GOP flipped at least 15 state legislative chambers.

1:54: TX-23 called for Quico Canseco (R).

1:50: NY-01 called for Tim Bishop.

1:49: Good news: NM-01 called for Dem Martin Heinrich. Also, it looks like the outstanding precincts in MI-09 are Dem-friendly.

1:48: The AP has called HI-Gov for Neil Abercrombie, in what looks like a big, 20-point win. Hopefully this bodes well for Colleen Hanabusa’s hopes in HI-01.

1:45: Well, well, well. It wouldn’t be an election night without some muffed numbers, now would it? The AP has un-called GA-02, and apparently Rep. Sanford Bishop is up by about 4,500 votes.

1:33: More:

51-45 tipton in CO-03, 76%; 50-46 Matheson in UT-02, 55%; 49-46 Grijalva, AZ-07, 68%; 49-47 Giffords, AZ-08, 59%; Heck by 1800 votes in NV-03, 25% in; ID-01, Minnick down 42-51, 24%; 51-46 Schrader, 82%, OR-05

1:30: Outstanding house races:

NY-01: 51-49 Bishop, 86%; NY-25: 51-49 Maffei, 94%; VA-11: Connolly by 500, 99%; Chandler by 600 in ky-06, 99%; 50-47 Peters in MI-09, 71%; Bean down 49-48 IL-08, 98%; Carnahan up 49-47 in MO-03, 99%; 48-47 Oberstar in MN-08, 45%; Farenthold by 800 votes in TX-27, 100%; 50-44 Quico in TX-23, 89%; 51.5-48.5 Heinrich in NM-01, 95%

1:25: Some early nums from Alaska: Write-ins 40, Miller 34, McAdams 25, with 26% reporting.

1:22: And in CA-18, Dennis Cardoza (D) defeats Mike Berryhill.

1:21: At least in WA-01, Jay Inslee hangs on.

1:19: In AZ-05, David Schweikert defeats Rep. Harry Mitchell.

1:12: Doug Hoffman’s cat fud from beyond the grave saves Bill Owens, who defeats Matt Doheney in NY-23.

1:08: Michael Bennet back on top in CO-Sen, 48-47 with 72% in. Heard some reports that the AP muffed the numbers out of Dem-friendly Boulder.

1:02: Bitter news, herb lovers: California’s Prop 19 won’t pass. No ganja break here – though as Ben said, when marijuana is decriminalized, only decriminals will have marijuana.

1:00am: Kristi Noem beats Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in SD-AL, which means James dreamed the future. WI-03 called for Ron Kind. NY-04 called for Carolyn McCarthy.

12:56am: Peter DeFazio (D) wins in OR-04.

12:49am: The Devil Wears Prada. Alternately, Ken Buck is now leading by 3% in Colorado. Additionally, Bobby Bright loses to Martha Roby (R) in AL-02.

12:44am: Suzan DelBene concedes to Dave Reichert in WA-08. Dems at two pickups for the night; Seals fail; Ami Bera trailing 43-49 to Dan Lungren (R) in CA-03.

12:42am: Harry Reid wins. Nuff said.

12:40am: Mike Oliverio (D) probably thought he’d get a free pass to Congress after beating Alan Mollohan, but nope, he loses to David McKinley in WV-01.

12:38am: Not a good night for the Carnahans; Russ is hanging on by 500 votes in MO-03 with 97% reporting.

12:36am: Maurice Hinchey (D) survives in NY-22, while across the country, Jaime Herrera (R) takes Brian Baird’s open WA-03 for the Rs.

12:35am: Nathan Deal (R) defeats Roy Barnes for GA-Gov.

12:33am: In a surprise, Michael McMahon loses to Mike Grimm in NY-13.

12:33am: Brock Landers er…Ben Quayle eats potatoe. And defeats Jon Hulburd for AZ-03.

12:32am: John Dingell declared the winner in MI-15.

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Ow.

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

As usual, SSP is offering our annual election prediction contest!

Winners, as always, get some delicious delicious Green’s Babka, courtesy of Mr. NYC himself! To get the deliciousness though, you’ll have to submit your predictions on these 9 races:

• Governors Races: Connecticut, Ohio, and Oregon
  

• Senate Races: Colorado, Nevada, and Wisconsin
  

• House Races: FL-25, PA-07, and VA-11

Here, just pick the winner and margin of victory, feel free to go to as many significant figures as you’d like.

…but of course, things are never this easy. There are two curveballs here, where you’ll have to say percentages for each of the candidates:

• MN-Gov: Mark Dayton, Tom Emmer, and Tom Horner
  

• AK-Sen: Scott McAdams, Joe Miller, and Lisa Murkowski

To be babka-eligible, enter your guesses into our online form. No reading comprehension = no babka!

You’ll have to have created your SSP account before midnight EDT though. If you haven’t, you can still register and submit an entry for bragging rights, and the option to get more babka in the future!

Also, feel free to share your predictions on these races (and any others!) in this thread, but be aware that people may be reading your predictions for inspiration!

Contest closes 6pm EDT today.

Why 6pm? Well, if you look at our handy little map, it’s when first polls close!

More new polls out from The Hill:

Penn Schoen Berland for The Hill, (likely voters):

AZ-05: (10-12/14)

Harry Mitchell (D-inc): 42

David Schweikert (R): 45

(MoE: ±4.9%)

IL-14: (10-9/12)

Bill Foster (D-inc): 42

Randy Hultgren (R): 43

(MoE: ±4.9%)

IL-17: (10-12/14)

Phil Hare (D-inc): 38

Bobby Schilling (R): 45

(MoE: ±4.8%)

MS-01: (10-9/17)

Travis Childers (D-inc): 39

Alan Nunnelee (R): 44

(MoE: ±4%)

NH-01: (10-9/12)

Carol Shea-Porter(D-inc): 42

Frank Guinta (R): 47

(MoE: ±4.9%)

NY-19: (10-12/14)

John Hall (D-inc): 43

Nan Hayworth (R): 43

(MoE: ±4.8%)

NY-24: (10-12/14)

Mike Arcuri (D-inc): 47

Richard Hanna (R): 37

(MoE: ±4.9%)

PA-08: (10-9/12)

Patrick Murphy (D-inc): 46

Mike Fitzpatrick (R): 43

(MoE: ±4.9%)

PA-10: (10-12/14)

Chris Carney (D-inc): 41

Tom Marino (R): 41

(MoE: ±4.9%)

WI-08: (10-12/14)

Steve Kagen (D-inc): 44

Reid Ribble (R): 45

(MoE: ±4.8%)

I almost wonder why we put this chart together, given that Citizens United means they can moneynuke our candidates all the live long day.

Highlights:

• Incumbent Dems outraised by GOPer: Bobby Bright (AL-02), Harry Mitchell (AZ-05), John Salazar (CO-03), Jim Himes (CT-04), Ron Klein (FL-22), Jim Marshall (GA-08), Phil Hare (IL-17), Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Baron Hill (IN-09), Ben Chandler (KY-06), John Tierney (MA-06), Frank Kratovil (MD-01), Gary Peters (MI-09), Ike Skelton (MO-04), Travis Childers (MS-01), Gene Taylor (MS-04), Bobby Etheridge (NC-02), Mike McIntyre (NC-07), Heath Shuler (NC-11), Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL), Harry Teague (NM-02), Dina Titus (NV-03), Steve Driehaus (OH-01), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Pete DeFazio (OR-04), Kurt Schrader (OR-05), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03), Chris Carney (PA-10), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL), Lincoln Davis (TN-04), Ciro D. Rodriguez (TX-23), Glenn Nye (VA-02), Tom Perriello (VA-05), Gerry Connolly (VA-11), Steve Kagen (WI-08), Nick Rahall (WV-03)
• Incumbent GOPer outraised by Dem: Dan Lungren (CA-03), Mary Bono Mack (CA-45), Charles Djou (HI-01), Jo Ann Emerson (MO-08), Charlie Dent (PA-15), Dave Reichert (WA-08)
• Incumbent Dems with less CoH than GOPer: Jim Costa (CA-20), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Ron Klein (FL-22), Phil Hare (IL-17), Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Russ Carnahan (MO-03), Harry Teague (NM-02), Dina Titus (NV-03), John Hall (NY-19), Steve Driehaus (OH-01), Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15), Kurt Schrader (OR-05), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL), Ciro D. Rodriguez (TX-23)
• Incumbent GOPer with less CoH than Dem: NONE
• GOPer outraising Dem for a Dem open seat: Tim Griffin (AR-02), Larry Bucshon (IN-08), Kevin Yoder (KS-03), Jeff Landry (LA-03), Tom Reed (NY-29), Pat Meehan (PA-07), Steve Fincher (TN-08), Jaime Herrera (WA-03)
• Dem outraising GOPer for a GOP open seat: John Carney (DE-AL), Joe Garcia (FL-25)
• GOPer with more CoH for a Dem open seat: Mo Brooks (AL-05), Rick Crawford (AR-01), Tim Griffin (AR-02), Larry Bucshon (IN-08), Kevin Yoder (KS-03), Daniel Benishek (MI-01), Charlie Bass (NH-02), Tom Reed (NY-29), Pat Meehan (PA-07), Jaime Herrera (WA-03), Sean Duffy (WI-07), David McKinley (WV-01)
• Dem with more CoH for a GOP open seat: John Carney (DE-AL)

Update: Many of you have correctly pointed out that Parker Griffith is a Republican now, and that were Steve Raby to win, this would technically be a pickup of a GOP open seat. Dick Muri in WA-09 is also included instead of James Postma.

The full chart:

AK-Sen: National Research, Inc. for the Club for Growth (10/8-9, likely voters):

Scott McAdams (D): 27

Lisa Murkowski (WI-inc): 31

Joe Miller (R): 33

(MoE: ±4.9%)

CA-Sen, CA-Gov, Prop 23: Ipsos for Reuters (10/12-14, likely voters, 10/2-4 in parens):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 46 (49)

Carly Fiorina (R): 45 (45)

Jerry Brown (D): 48 (50)

Meg Whitman (R): 44 (43)

Yes on 23: 35

No on 23: 46

(MoE: ±4.6%)

CT-Gov: Quinnipiac (10/7-11, likely voters, 9/21-26 in parens):

Dan Malloy (D): 49 (45)

Tom Foley (R): 42 (42)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

FL-Gov: Susquehanna for Sunshine State News (10/12-13, likely voters, 9/28-10/3 in parens):

Alex Sink (D): 48 (44)

Rick Scott (R): 44 (50)

(MoE: ±2.2%)

HI-Gov: Aloha Vote for Honolulu Civil Beat (10/11, likely voters):

Neil Abercrombie (D): 47

Duke Aiona (R): 44

(MoE: ±2.9%)

KS-Sen, KS-Gov: Survey USA for KWCH-TV (10/10-12, likely voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

Tom Holland (D): 32 (32)

Sam Brownback (R): 60 (59)

Andrew Gray (L): 3 (3)

Ken Cannon (Ref): 4 (4)

Lisa Johnston (D): 27 (24)

Jerry Moran (R): 67 (66)

Michael Dann (L): 2 (2)

Joe Bellis (Ref): 3 (5)

(MoE: ±4%)

For SoS, Dems trail 35-53; for State Treasurer, it’s 39-55. For Attorney General, appointed Dem Steve Six trails Derek Schmidt 40-48.

MA-Gov: Suffolk University (10/10-12, registered voters, 9/14-16 in parens):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 46 (41)

Charlie Baker (R): 39 (34)

Tim Cahill (I): 10 (14)

Jill Stein (G): 1 (4)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

ME-Gov: Critical Insights for Maine Today Media (10/10-11, likely voters, 9/27 in parens):

Libby Mitchell (D): 29 (33)

Paul LePage (R): 34 (33)

Eliot Cutler (I): 13 (10)

Shawn Moody (I): 7 (6)

Kevin Scott (I): 1 (-)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

MN-Gov: SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 42 (38)

Tom Emmer (R): 37 (36)

Tom Horner (IP): 14 (18)

Other: 3 (5)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

NH-Sen: University of New Hampshire (10/7-12, likely voters, 9/23-29 in parens):

Paul Hodes (D): 35 (35)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (50)

Other: 3 (2)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

NV-Sen, NV-Gov: Mason–Dixon for the LVRJ (10/11-12, likely voters, 9/20-22 in parens):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 45 (43)

Sharron Angle (R): 47 (43)

Other: 2 (2)

NOTA: 2 (4)

Rory Reid (D): 37 (37)

Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (51)

Other: 2 (3)

NOTA: 1 (2)

(MoE: ±4%)

NV-Gov: Public Policy Polling (10/7-9, likely voters, July in parens):

Rory Reid (D): 43 (38)

Brian Sandoval (R): 52 (52)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

NV-Gov: Suffolk University (10/8-11, likely voters, in parens):

Rory Reid (D): 39

Brian Sandoval (R): 50

Other: 2

NOTA: 3

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Bonus findings: Incumbent LG Brian Krolicki (R) leads Dem Jessica Sferrazza 42-30, Dem SoS Ross Miller leads 40-24, Dem Treasurer Kate Marshall trails 33-38, and Dem Controller Kim Wallin leads 31-26.

NY-Gov, NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B: SurveyUSA for WABC-TV, WHEC-TV, and WNYT-TV (10/11-13, likely voters, in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 59 (57)

Carl Paladino (R): 33 (34)

Other: 6 (5)

Chuck Schumer (D): 63 (60)

Jay Townsend (R): 30 (30)

Other: 4 (6)

Kirsten Gillibrand (D): 54 (54)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 36 (35)

Other: 7 (8)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bonus finding: Manhattan/Bronx state Senator Eric Schneiderman (D) leads Staten Island DA Dan Donovan (R) for Attorney General 44-40, down from 46-40 a week ago.

OH-Sen, OH-Gov: Univ. of Cincinnati for the Ohio Poll(10/8-13, likely voters, 9/16-20 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 36 (40)

Rob Portman (R): 58 (55)

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 43 (45)

John Kasich (R): 51 (49)

(MoE: ±3.7%)

OK-Sen: Sooner Poll (10/3-7, likely voters):

Jim Rogers (D): 22

Tom Coburn (R-inc): 62

Other: 2

(MoE: ±5.2%)

Other results here find the GOP leading for all statewide offices: 40-28 for LG, 50-30 for Attorney General, 41-35 for Insurance Commissioner, 45-31 for Treasurer, 35-32 for State Superintendent, 44-33 for Labor Commissioner, and 41-35 for Auditor/Inspector. Dems had held most of these offices, if you’ll recall.

OR-Gov, OR-Sen: SurveyUSA for KATU-TV (10/12-14, likely voters, 9/12-14 in parens):

John Kitzhaber (D): 46 (43)

Chris Dudley (R): 45 (49)

Greg Kord (C): 4 (3)

Wes Wagner (L): 3 (2)

Ron Wyden (D-inc): 56 (54)

Jim Huffman (R): 34 (38)

Bruce Cronk (WF): 2 (3)

Marc Delphine (L): 2 (1)

Rick Staggenborg (P): 2 (0)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

PA-Gov: Magellan (10/10, likely voters, 9/21 in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 38 (38)

Tom Corbett (R): 48 (50)

(MoE: ±2.3%)

VT-Sen, VT-Gov, VT-AL: Mason-Dixon for Vermont Public Radio (10/11-13, registered voters):

Patrick Leahy (D-inc): 62

Len Britton (R): 27

Other: 4

Peter Shumlin (D): 43

Brian Dubie (R): 44

Other: 5

Peter Welch (D): 61

Paul Beaudry (R): 25

Other: 4

(MoE: ±4%)

WA-Sen: Washington Poll (10/5-14, registered voters, in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50

Dino Rossi (R): 42

(MoE: ±4.3%)

WA-Sen: SurveyUSA for KING-TV (10/11-14, likely voters, in parens):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 50 (50)

Dino Rossi (R): 47 (48)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Suffolk University (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 43

Bill Brady (R): 37

Scott Lee Cohen (I): 6

Rich Whitney (G): 3

Lex Green (L): 1

Undecided: 8

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (9/24-28, likely voters, 8/28-9/1 in parens):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 39 (32)

Bill Brady (R): 38 (37)

Scott Lee Cohen (I): 4 (4)

Rich Whitney (G): 3 (2)

Lex Green (L): 2 (2)

Undecided: 12 (23)

(MoE: ±4%)

Suffolk University weighs in with its first poll of the race, showing Quinn with his biggest lead since….December 2009. The Chicago Tribune also has Pat Quinn surging to a lead, albeit a statistically insignificant one. Quinn’s job approval is up to 40/49 according to Suffolk and 33/48 according to the Trib, which – while terrible – is better than the 28/50 he saw last month. Perhaps most significantly, Quinn and Brady are now even in the collar counties, a large improvement from Quinn’s 17-point deficit. These socially moderate areas are where Quinn needs to do well – and where Brady’s extraordinarily conservative record as a state Senator might come to bite him.

Quinn hasn’t been shy on the airwaves with his “Who Is Bill Brady?” campaign, and from a purely anecdotal perspective, Democrats (at least that I’ve seen) seem to be coming home for Quinn… and they’re realizing that an [alleged] prostitute-cutting pawn shop owner might not be the best recipient of their protest votes if it results in a Governor Brady.

The Trib’s also not the only pollster showing some movement towards Quinn:

Public Policy Polling (9/23-26, likely voters, 8/14-15 in parens):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 35 (30)

Bill Brady (R): 42 (39)

Scott Lee Cohen (I): 6(-)

Rich Whitney (G): 4 (11)

Lex Green (L): 2 (-)

Undecided: 11 (20)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PPP has him down 7 and up to 35, which is up from being down 9 two months ago. Quinn’s still only getting 59% (!!) of self-reported Obama voters, but he’s doing much better among indies, now losing them 39-27 to Brady.

All three pollsters also have numbers from the Senate race, which remains close (and brutal on the airwaves, I might add…):

Suffolk University (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 41

Mark Kirk (R): 42

LeAlan Jones (G): 4

Mike Labno (L): 3

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (9/24-28, likely voters, 8/28-9/1 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38 (34)

Mark Kirk (R): 36 (34)

LeAlan Jones (G): 5 (6)

Mike Labno (L): 3 (3)

Undecided: 17 (22)

(MoE: ±4%)

Public Policy Polling (9/23-26, likely voters, 8/14-15 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 36 (37)

Mark Kirk (R): 40 (35)

LeAlan Jones (G): 8 (9)

Mike Labno (L): 3 (-)

Undecided: 13 (19)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Both candidates’ favorables remain in the tank, at 33/48 for Alexi and 33/47 for Kirk, according to PPP.

Lastly, while the GOP’s been shut out of all statewide offices since 2006, that looks bounded for a change. For state Comptroller, south suburban State Rep. David Miller (D) trails former state Treasurer (and failed ’06 gubernatorial candidate) Judy Baar Topinka (R) by twenty points at 52-32 according to PPP or 39-23 by Suffolk, while Giannoulias aide Robin Kelly trails downstate state Rep. Dan Rutherford (R) for state Treasurer 34-42 by PPP and 26-32 according to Suffolk. (Fortunately, Democrats won’t be swept out statewide entirely, SoS Jesse White and AG Lisa Madigan are safe for re-election. Suffolk has White up 60-15, and Madigan up 63-14).

Awhile back, the old mainframe down at SSP Labs told us that not only that absentees and provisionals wouldn’t be enough to help Lisa Murkowski overcome her then 1,668-vote deficit, but that they’d be likely to actually hurt her and drop her further behind, to the tune of 341 votes.

Three weeks after election day, we finally have some certainty, as the results are now certified. Drumroll, please:

With all the final results, Miller’s margin on Murkowski increased from 1,668 to 2,006. An increase of … 338!

Now, of course, things aren’t that simple, and frankly, we’re not that good. In my input, we’d assumed 7,500 absentees and 5,000 provisionals, when in actuality, there were 17,364 additional ballots. I don’t have those broken down between provisionals and absentees, but applying that figure post hoc, that would have yielded an estimate of an increase in Miller’s margin of between 410 and 516.

But indeed, absentees and provisionals were not friendlier to Murkowski – she lost by 1.81% among election day ballots and early votes; she lost by 1.95% among provisionals and absentees. (We’d estimated she’d lose by 2.36% among provisionals and 2.97% among absentees).

No models are perfect, and they remain exactly that – models, dependent on anorexia! er…proper inputs and proper assumptions; we’ll continue to put them forth to the best of our ability. Moving forward, even as the news may get even worse (or even better, if you’re one of our many newfound GOP-leaning readers), we hope to bring the same solid news and analysis (that we assume) you come here to enjoy!

P.S. I’m no salesman, but since I’ve already gotten wet in the self-congratulatory rain, I might as well go swimming: we’re a mere 5 followers short of 3,000 on Twitter. Wink wink. Nudge nudge.

P.P.S. We have a Facebook page too.

…and that’s good enough for me; I hope that’s good enough for you, too!

Two quick ones today, one of New Hampshire and one of DC.

First, New Hampshire:

Green for Ayotte, red for Ovide. Binnie and Bender each won exactly one town, Binnie’s down on the Massachusetts line (blue) and Bender’s way up in Coos County (purple). As you can tell, Lamontagne did very well in the cluster around Manchester.

Second, DC, but let’s play a game.

Pop quiz for all you hotshots – what are the following maps?

Hard to tell, right? Answer over the flip.

Stephen Colbert’s not far off when he described DC as the “Chocolate City with Marshmallow Center”, though it might more accurately be termed, the Chocolate East half and the Marshmallow West half…but that, of course, isn’t as catchy.

The map on the left is the percentage of the population that was Black at the 2000 census by block group (blue being a lower%); the map on the right is the margin between Fenty and Gray by precinct (blue for Fenty, red for Gray). Two larger versions below, with the color scale modified (darker green indicating a higher percentage of African-Americans)…the correlation is quite stunning.