Author: jeffmd

As long as this SSP Editor (and newly minted Chicago resident) has been walking this earth, Chicago hasn’t had a mayor not named Richard M. Daley. Some thought it would never happen, but Da Mare is calling it quits:

Mayor Richard Daley says he will not run for re-election in 2011, saying it’s “time for me, it’s time for Chicago to move on.”

“The truth is I have been thinking about this for the past several months,” Daley said at a City Hall news conference that stunned the city. “In the end this is a personal decision, no more, no less.”

With the top spot in the Second City opening up for the first time in 22 years, speculation has already run rampant regarding who might throw their hat in the ring. Northwest/Southwest Side Congressman Luis Gutierrez is already forming an exploratory committee, while West Side Congressman Danny K. Davis won’t rule anything out just yet.

The 800-(fuckin’)-pound gorilla in the fuckin’ room, of course, is Rahm Emanuel, who represented a chunk of the North Side-based 5th district and had made his mayoral ambitions public awhile ago. But with even Rahmbo’s successor in Congress, Mike Quigley, saying that Rahm isn’t a shoo-in (among others, including South Side Congressmen Bobby Rush and Jesse Jackson Jr.), this race just may prove to be the hottest ticket around after November. (Quigley and JJJr. also haven’t ruled out runs, either.)

Other candidates floated include Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart, outgoing Cook County Assessor Jim Houlihan, North Side state Rep. John Fritchey, South Side state Sen. James Meeks, Circuit Court Clerk (and failed Cook County Board President candidate and ’07 mayoral candidate) Dorothy Brown, and two North Side Cook County Commissioners – Bridget Gainer (10th) and Forrest Claypool (12th, who’s also running as an indie for Cook County Assessor).

A host of Aldermen and former Aldermen (our term for City Councilpeople) are also rumored to be interested, including Manny Flores (formerly 1st Ward – Logan Square/Wicker Park), Bob Fioretti (2nd – South Loop/Near West Side), Leslie Hairston (5th – Hyde Park/Grand Crossing), JJJr.’s wife Sandi Jackson (7th – South Shore/Calumet Heights), Ed Burke (14th – Brighton Park/Gage Park), Scott Waguespack (32nd – Bucktown/Roscoe Village), Tom Allen (38th – Portage Park), Brendan Reilly (42nd – River North/Loop) and Tom Tunney (44th – Lakeview/Boystown). For what it’s worth, a third member of the Jackson family – JJJr.’s son Jonathan – has also been mentioned as a potential candidate.

If I’ve thrown enough neighborhood/area names in to confuse you, here’s a ward map I made, and the City’s official neighborhood map (pdf).

(And because I can’t get enough digs in on Todd Stroger, who knows, the soon-to-be former Cook County Board President – who finished 4th in his primary with 14% in February – might even be delusional enough to run!)

No mention of this race would be complete without a mention of the racial divisions present here. Chicago’s voting-age population, as of 2000, was 36.7% non-Hispanic White, 33.8% non-Hispanic Black, 22.8% Hispanic, and 4.7% Asian; leaders in both the Hispanic and Black communities have stated that they will be represented in the field. There’ll also be a divide between the pro-Daley loyalists and anti-Daley reformists, especially among white voters, probably between the younger “lakefront liberals” and the old-school machine pols on the Northwest/Southwest Sides. (Knowing nothing about the field right now, this Lakefront Lib would love to vote for Claypool, but would also happily vote for Gainer or Waguespack.)

Under Chicago’s quirky off-year municipal election calendar, petitions are due betwen November 15 and 22, with the primary election on February 22, 2011 and the general (i.e. runoff) between the top two vote-getters six weeks later on April 5 should no one receive 50% +1. With Daley – and many of his allies on the Chicago City Council – heading for the exits (and promotion-seeking Aldermen not running for re-election), one thing is certain: Chicago’s political landscape will be quite different come next April.

Update: A few more names I’ve seen bandied about: City Clerk Miguel del Valle, and Ald. Joe Moore (49th – Rogers Park/West RP). All the candidates highlighted here are Democrats…there’s 1 Republican (of 50) on the Chicago City Council, Brian Doherty (41st – Edison Park/O’Hare), and even he’s a close Daley ally.

Update 2: Even more candidates rumored, two of the Daley family: Da Mare’s brother William Daley, and his son Patrick Daley. More state officials include outgoing comptroller (and failed gubernatorial candidate) Dan Hynes and Attorney General (and daughter of state House Speaker Mike) Lisa Madigan. There’s also Cook County ClerkDavid Orr (who briefly served as mayor after Harold Washington’s death), former State Senate Majority Leader Emil Jones, and Ald. Gene Schulter (47th – North Center/Lincoln Square).

I don’t believe the title needs further explanation.

Can you guess what this map is of?

The map up top is the 2008 race between Mark Begich and Ted Stevens, in which Begich prevailed by 1.25%.

If you guessed that correctly (without cheating), 10 points for Gryffindor. If you did cheat and look at the file name, boo on you too, but you can look at the Anchorage inset anyways:

Here’s a redux of the Murkowski-Miller race (blue for Murk, Red for Miller; Absentees not included):

And you can judge for yourself similarities between that at the 2008 GOP primary, Young-Parnell (Young in blue, Parnell in red):

I’m not that optimistic about Scott McAdams’ chances in November, but there does seem to be a path for him:

Areas of strong Begich performance are decently correlated with areas of strong Murkowski performance – or put differently – weaker Miller performance. Given that, this seems to bode somewhat better for McAdams, in that he could piece together the Begich coalition of Anchorage + Outlying Areas + Juneau for a win, pulling in disaffected Murkowski GOPers. Those areas (notably, GOP voters in those areas) weren’t exactly hopping for Miller.

I haven’t been up with SSP as much as I would have liked to be over the past few days, but the brewing brouhaha in Alaska was too good for me to pass up.

First, let’s take a quick look at the geography of the vote, by state house district (blue for Murkowski, red for Miller):

Murkowski did well in the southeastern part of the state, as well as the Arctic North, and the Aleutians. In the Anchorage-area inset below, you can also see that she did well in the Dem-leaning (and less GOP-vote heavy) Anchorage-city districts, but got absolutely crushed in the GOP-vote-rich Mat-Su Valley north of the city (no surprise, given Palin’s involvement).

For the analysis and maps presented here, I use Alaska House of Representative Districts, numbering 40 in total. I also rely extensively on 2008 absentee and provisional ballot rates, which I think is a reliable assumption; Election Day only turnout between the two contests is remarkably similar:

I’d also hoped to use Young v. Parnell in 2008 as a proxy for Murkowski and Miller respectively, but the correlation there isn’t as strong:

Between the 40 House Districts, there was a huge variation in the percentage of GOP ballots that were cast absentee in 2008, ranging from 2.96% in HD-39 (Nome), to 20.47% in the Anchorage-based HD-18.

Using this analysis, the outcome already begins to look grim for Lisa Murkowski. Here is a comparison of her Election Day performance and the percentage of votes cast absentee in 2008:

From this, I think we can expect fewer absentee ballots from her stronger areas, and more absentee ballots from areas more favorable to Miller.

Things look even worse for her when we start to factor in the fact that there is variation in the number of votes cast per HD, and therefore variation in the number of absentee ballots returned per HD. In 2008, this varied from a tiny 28 absentees in HD-39, to 741 in HD-34 (Rural Kenai). Assuming that each HD returns the same percentage of total absentees as they did in 2008, this is what we get:

That negative correlation we saw earlier becomes even stronger, as Miller strongholds are expected to return more of the absentee ballots outstanding. Adding the additional assumption of Murkowski’s performance among absentees to be the same as her Election Day performance (tenuous, yes), she can be expected to receive about 48.51% of the absentee vote.

Repeating this analysis for provisional ballots, things are no better for Lisa.

While the relationship between her Election Day performance and provisional ballot rate seems to be better, adding into consideration the percentage of statewide provisionals per HD shows that familiar negative correlation for her. Making the same assumptions as above, Murkowski can be expected to get 48.82% of the provisional vote.

Extrapolating further, using the oft-cited 7,500 absentees and assuming 5,000 provisionals (5,200 were cast in 2008), we can expect Miller’s margin to increase by 223 votes among absentees and 118 votes among provisionals. For Murkowski to pull this out assuming those figures for outstanding ballots, Murkowski would have to perform 8.04% better than she did on Election Day among absentees and provisionals…which is quite the tall order! More outstanding ballots means the swing she needs will be less, but it also means more ballots through which she could lose more ground. Given this, there isn’t too much reason to be optimistic for Lisa, and we might just have to put the ‘W’ in the column for the Grizzly Momma.

You can also check out my dataset below the flip.

Estimated Murkowski percentage is obtained by taking the weighted average of her performance by HD, with weights being the percentage of statewide absentees/provisionals cast within the HD.  

One of these days a Congressman from Michigan’s gonna come back home and build a turtle fence lose a Governor’s race!

I swear – the more I drink, the more this Congress is makin’ sense!

SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (8/2-4, likely voters, 6/14-6/16 in parens; 5/3-5 in brackets):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 46 (38) [34]

Tom Emmer (R): 32 (35) [42]

Tom Horner (I): 9 (12) [9]

Undecided: 13 (15) [15]

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 39 (33) [33]

Tom Emmer (R): 33 (35) [41]

Tom Horner (I): 9 (12) [9]

Undecided: 13 (21) [17]

Matt Entenza (DFL): 38 (33) [31]

Tom Emmer (R): 33 (37) [42]

Tom Horner (I): 12 (12) [10]

Undecided: 17 (18) [16]

(MoE: ±2.7%)

The wheels on the bus go round-and-round, except, of course, if your bus is Tom Emmer’s gubernatorial candidacy. Emmer’s hit a few speedbumps recently, having been on the receiving end of ads from DFL candidate Matt Entenza attacking Emmer’s Palinism and outside groups hitting Emmer on drunk driving laws.

SurveyUSA follows up with a second poll confirming the results of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s poll earlier this week, with leads for each of the DFL hopefuls. Emmer’s decline’s been quite stunning, having consistently lost points in each progressive SurveyUSA poll. We’ve had “Joementum” and felt the “Mumpower”, and now, there’s “Emmermentum.” Mark Dayton fares the best, now boasting a 14-point lead, up from an 8-point deficit three months ago – a remarkable 22% swing in that time. Margaret Anderson Kelliher is now up 6, a 14-point swing from being down 8; Entenza’s now 5 up, a 16-point swing from being 11 down.

SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (8/2-4, likely voters, 6/14-6/16 in parens):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 43 (39)

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 27 (26)

Matt Entenza (DFL): 22 (22)

Undecided: 7 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

The corresponding part of the poll examining the DFL primary also mirrors the Star Tribune’s poll. There’s been slight movement since SurveyUSA last examined the race in June, with Mark Dayton still in the driver’s seat with a 16-point lead over MAK and Entenza in third. Dayton looks well on his way along the road to redemption since retiring from the Senate four years ago; with these results and Emmer’s rising unfavorables, there’s good reason for optimism that we’ll take back the Governor’s Mansion in St. Paul.

Only the first in a month chock-full of primaries.

Kansas:

• KS-Sen (R): The main event in Kansas is the GOP Senate primary; with underfunded Democratic opposition (and Kansas’s many decades of sending only Republicans to the Senate), this basically determines its next Senator. It’s a geographical and ideological battle between two of Kansas’s four Representatives: Jerry Moran, who represents KS-01 across the state’s empty western two-thirds, and Todd Tiahrt, from the Wichita-area KS-04. Moran, while no one’s idea of a “moderate,” doesn’t have a hard-right reputation; yet, he’s the preferred choice of many on the right (like Jim DeMint) because of his fiscal hawkishness and Tiahrt’s role ladling out pork on Appropriations. Tiahrt is the favorite of the social conservatives, and boasts a Sarah Palin endorsement. Moran has led all polling, ranging by anywhere from 3 to 20 points, with Moran leading by 10 in SurveyUSA‘s final poll released yesterday. (C)
• KS-Sen (D): Democrats have a primary here too, for the privilege of being a speed bump for Moran or Tiahrt in November. Retired newspaper publisher Charles Schollenberger was originally expected to be the nominee, then state Sen. David Haley showed up. However, professor Lisa Johnston has led the few polls of the race. (C)
• KS-01 (R): In a CD that gave Barack Obama a mere 30% of its vote in 2008 (a high-water mark for Dems, considering Gore and Kerry languished in the 20s here), the only party with a keg and a boom box is on the Republican side of the fence — and everyone’s jumpin’. In a crowded field, the GOP primary for Moran’s open seat is coming down to state Sen. Jim Barnett, realtor Tracey Mann, and Club For Growth favorite state Sen. Tim Huelskamp. SUSA’s most recent poll had the trio tied at exactly 24% each — a true three-way tossup. Barnett’s probably the most “moderate” of the three, but the most at stake here is the difference between Very Conservative and Ultra Douchey Wingnut Conservative. (JL)
• KS-03 (R): State Rep. Kevin Yoder has been labeled a moderate by the national press, which is curious due to his allegiance with the conservative factions of the Kansas state legislature. Whatever the case, it looks like he has a solid grip on the Republican nomination for the seat of retiring Dem Rep. Dennis Moore. As of mid-July, he’s out-raised his conservative primary challenger, ex-state Rep. Patricia Lightner, by an 8-to-1 margin. The winner will square off against Stephene Moore, Dennis Moore’s wife, this fall. (JL)
• KS-04 (D): Will state Rep. Raj Goyle, a fundraising machine, get VicRawl’d? For a brief while, it looked like Goyle, one of the DCCC’s few bright lights this cycle, was in serious danger of losing to Some Dude Robert Tillman, a retiree who has not filed a fundraising report with the FEC. It looks like Goyle successfully turned up the volume on his campaign, though, as SUSA’s final poll of the primary gave Goyle a commanding 63-19 lead. (JL)

• KS-04 (R): In the scramble to replace dry rub-flavored wingnut Todd Tiahrt, the most recent SUSA poll has given RNC committee member Mike Pompeo a 31-24 lead over state Sen. Jean Schodorf (who was actually endorsed by Planned Parenthood), with 21% going to carpetbagging businessman Wink Hartman, who has invested over $1.5 million of his own funds into his campaign. That represents something of a slide for Hartman and a surge for Schodorf, but there may not have been enough time left on the clock for Schodorf to steal this one. (JL)
  

Michigan:

• MI-Gov (D): Pugnacious populist vs. smooth centrist. That’s the easy alliterative description of the choice Democratic voters have, between Lansing mayor Virg Bernero and state House speaker Andy Dillon, in the gubernatorial primary. Bernero caught the eye of many on the left with his strong advocacy for government assistance to the automakers and has AFL-CIO backing (which includes the UAW), while the pro-life and business-friendly Dillon has had often strained relations with labor (although he does have some labor backing of his own, including the Teamsters). Dillon has led most polls thanks to better name rec in the Detroit area, but Bernero seems to have caught a late bounce and led this weekend’s EPIC-MRA poll. (C)
• MI-Gov (R): There are potentially four different candidates who could win the Republican gubernatorial primary. Rick Snyder, the former CEO of Gateway Computers who made a name for himself with his “one tough nerd” ad campaign, had a tiny lead in this weekend’s EPIC-MRA poll, and may have a path to victory in that he basically has the moderate vote to himself (and is relying on crossover votes from indies in the open primary), while the others are all fighting over the conservative share. Rep. Peter Hoekstra and AG Mike Cox have traded polling leads back-and-forth throughout most of the campaign (with Hoekstra having a built-in advantage as the only western Michigan candidate), with Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard always hanging back within striking distance. Michigan doesn’t use runoffs, so whoever wins will be doing so with only about 30%. (C)
• MI-01 (R): This race spent last year on no one’s radar screen, but with Rep. Bart Stupak’s surprise retirement, it attracted some additional Republican interest. Physician Dan Benishek was the only Republican running for the spot before Stupak’s announcement. State Sen. Jason Allen got in afterwards, but Benishek stayed in. Allen has the “establishment” mantle here, but may be geographically hampered by being from the Traverse City area, not the Upper Peninsula. Benishek is opting for the “true conservative” route, pointing to Allen’s insufficient hatred of labor. The lone poll of the primary found Allen and Benishek tied. (C)
• MI-02 (R): The race to replace retiring Rep. Peter Hoekstra will no doubt find the torch being passed to another ultra-conservative Dutch-American, which should be no surprise, given the district’s profile. The frontrunner appears to be former NFL tight end and Family Research Council executive Jay Riemersma, who raised more than twice the money of any other candidate and also a lead in the lone poll. He faces state Sen. Wayne Kuipers and former state Rep. Bill Huizenga. One potential wild card is businessman Bill Cooper, who’s been reaching out to the Tea Partiers and who has a base in the Muskegon area, unlike the others, all from the district’s population center of Ottawa County. (C)
• MI-03 (R): Republican voters in the 3rd are choosing between three options to replace retiring Rep. Vern Ehlers: brash young state Rep. Justin Amash (who’s the Tea Party fave, but also the protege of the DeVos family, the Republican power behind the throne in Michigan), termed-out state Sen. Bill Hardiman, and former Kent Co. Commissioner Steve Heacock. Amash had raised the most money, and has a narrow lead in the one poll of the race. Heacock is the most moderate in the field and has the backing of Ehlers and a number of other local politicians. (C)
• MI-07 (R): Former Rep. Tim Walberg is attempting to make a comeback after his defeat at the hands of now Rep. Mark Schauer, but he’ll have to get through attorney Brian (and grandson of Steelers owner Art) Rooney. Walberg is playing the social conservative angle as always, but has some surprising endorsements, including one Rudolph Giuliani. Rooney’s playing the moderate angle somewhat, having garnered the endorsement of former Rep. Joe Schwarz, who Walberg primaried out in 2006; the Detroit Free Press has opted as well for Rooney. Walberg is no doubt out there, but he is winning the money race and this is a district that’s booted a moderate at least once. (JMD)
• MI-09 (R): Republicans sense an opportunity to knock off freshman Dem Gary Peters, with four candidates having jumped into the fray. The two frontrunners – former Farmington Hills State Rep. Andrew “Rocky” Raczkowski and former 9th CD Rep. Joe Knollenberg’s former Chief of Staff Paul Welday (what a mouthful) – have gone after each other, trying to out-conservative the other. Raczkowski put out a poll in May giving him a 26-15 lead, but that was ages, a Detroit Free Press endorsement for Rocky, and at least $100k in TV ads ago; this race remains quite the tossup. (JMD)
• MI-12 (D): What happens when you implement term limits? Politicians start playing musical chairs, of course. Term-limited state Senator Mickey Switalski of suburban Macomb County is challenging 14-term incumbent Sander (and older brother of US Senator Carl) Levin. Switalski – who’s challenged his party in the state Senate – is hitting Levin from the right, emphasizing the deficit (eye roll) and “bipartisanship” (double eye roll). An ancient poll in March, which had Levin leading 62-14, and Switalski’s $32k in cycle-to-date expenditures make it hard to imagine that he’s getting much traction in this quixotic challenge. (JMD)
• MI-13 (D): Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick stumbled across the finish line two years ago with 39% against two opponents who split the anti-Kilpatrick vote, and she’s drawn five opponents this year. However, things seem to be a little different, with one of her challengers – State Senator Hansen Clarke, who represents a section of the city of Detroit, presenting himself as the clear not-Kilpatrick. While Cheeks Kilpatrick might take solace that her scandal-plagued son – former Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick – is out of the news (and in state prison, no less), she ought to be worried that she’s up against only one credible challenger. With several recent polls and the Detroit Free Press having given Clarke sizeable leads and an endorsement respectively, Cheeks Kilpatrick may very well find her name next to Alan Mollohan’s and Parker Griffith’s on the list of incumbents bounced in this year’s primaries. (JMD)

Missouri:

• MO-Sen (R): Back in the early days of teabagger ferment, when it seemed like those plucky little nutbars could take on the entire GOP empire themselves, it was at least plausible to imagine state Sen. Chuck Purgason giving Rep. Roy Blunt a run for his money. Alas, as we’ve learned, that’s still the one thing you need in this world, even if you are fueled by the paranoid fury of a million mouthbreathers: money. And Purgason has none of it. Blunt has outspent him literally 100-to-1, and Purgason doesn’t even have enough cash left over to treat his staff to Starbucks. Blunt may be a despised creature of the establishment, but like Mark Kirk, he should have no problem kicking teabagger ass. (D)
• MO-04 (R): While something like a dozen Republicans signed up in the primary to face longtime Dem Rep. Ike Skelton, only two have raised money above the “surely you must be joking” level: state Sen. Bill Stouffer ($450K) and former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler ($500K). Both candidates are on the NRCC’s Young Guns list, but the local establishment, apparently preferring Stouffer, tried to talk Hartzler out of the race back in March. That obviously didn’t work, and in the last couple of weeks, both candidates have taken to the airwaves, with each accusing the other of raising taxes. This is definitely anybody’s race. Hartzler’s stronghold should be Cass County (the site of her old district), in CD 4’s northwest corner. Stouffer hails from Saline County in the north-central part of the district, and his state senate district also covers Ray and Lafayette counties in the 4th. (D)
• MO-07 (R): The primary in this dark-red district in southwestern Missouri is principally a three-way affair between self-funding auctioneer Billy Long and two state senators, Jack Goodman and Gary Nodler. Long has tried to wear the “true conservative” mantle (he’s been endorsed by Mike Huckabee), but he’s also been attacked by the shadowy Americans for Job Security as an earmark-happy member of a local airport’s board of directors. Long fired back with an ad of his own, accusing both of his opponents of the same sin. There have actually been a bunch of internal polls of this race, but they mostly just show the top three candidates jumbled together somewhere around 20 points, plus or minus a few. Nodler hails from Jasper County on the Kansas border, while Goodman lives in adjacent Lawrence County, just to the east. Long, meanwhile, is from Springfield, MO, which is in the next county over, Greene. (D)

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (7/26-28, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parens, 6/1-3 in brackets):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (44) [41]

Sharron Angle (R): 42 (37) [44]

Other: 2 (4) [3]

None of these: 7 (5) [4]

Undecided: 6 (10) [8]

(MoE: 4%)

With the last M-D poll done for the LVRJ a little too optimistic for Reid, the right-wing mouthpiece is out with a second poll in three weeks, leaving Jon Ralston to ponder whether the LVRJ has subtler motives here.

Papa Reid’s down 1, Angle’s up 5, and NotA is also up 2 from two weeks ago. Peeking into the guts of the poll gives us quite the Republican-leaning electorate, with Obama’s approval at a shockingly low 39/55 and a whopping 52% supporting a repeal of health care reform (well above the national average, where a plurality now oppose repeal). Both candidates remain about as popular as water fluoridation (oh wait, that’s actually popular), with Reid sporting a 38/51 and Angle only a few points better at 38/47.

Despite (or perhaps because of) Angle’s vendetta against the teeth of the residents of Washoe County, she still trails Reid in Nevada’s 2nd-most populous county 43-41; she loses the 800-pound gorilla Clark County to Reid 47-39. As you guessed, rural Nevada keeps her afloat where she’s more than doubling up Reid 56-27.

Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (7/26-7/28, likely voters, 7/12-14 in parens, 6/1-3 in brackets)

Rory Reid (D): 31 (36) [37]

Brian Sandoval (R): 50 (47) [51]

Other: 2 (3) [1]

None of these: 3 (7) [1]

Undecided: 14 (7) [10]

(MoE: ±4%)

Baby Reid, trailing by 11 two weeks ago, now trails by 19. He’s down 5 while Sandoval’s up 3. Sandoval continues to be popular, coming in at 49/17 while Rory Reid’s favorables remain underwater at 29/40. Sadly, his last name might be Rory’s albatross, with 33% of respondents saying they’d be less likely to vote for him and a measly 4% saying they’d be more likely to do so. Reid loses a good 18% of Dems to Sandoval and is losing Clark County 45-36; he does worse in Washoe (53-28) and worse still in the outlying counties (68-15).

Unfortunately, no racial crosstabs are given in these polls, but the sample was taken before Sandoval’s recent contraction of foot-in-mouth disease, which we hope isn’t contagious and won’t spread to his non-Hispanic looking kids. Whether that gives Rory Reid an opening in this state where Hispanics made up 15% of the electorate in 2008 remains to be seen in future polls. If we get more bi-weekly polls, great; if we don’t, then Jon Ralston’s onto something and the LVRJ is showing its true colors.

SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV (7/27-29, likely voters, 5/25-27 in parentheses):

Jack Conway (D): 43 (45)

Rand Paul (R): 51 (51)

Undecided: 5 (4)

(MoE: ±4.2%)

SurveyUSA is out with its second post-primary poll in Kentucky, and it’s significantly more bullish on Rand Paul’s chances than other outfits like PPP, giving Paul a 51-43 lead over Dem AG Jack Conway. This is largely unchanged from two months ago, with Paul holding steady and Conway down two points.

It’s tempting to dismiss this as float within the MoE, given that Paul hasn’t exactly had the best two months since winning the primary. As is traditional with SurveyUSA’s polls, the crosstabs tend to be a little counterintuitive. Two months ago, Paul was winning both men (54-44) and woman (48-46), but now the gender gap’s intensified: Paul’s now winning men 57-38, but women have supposedly shifted to Conway 49-46.

The sample’s also shifted slightly in terms of partisan ID, going from 54-40-5 D-R-I to 50-37-12. Given (undoubtedly) the high number of old school Dixiecrats here, it’s little surprise that more “Dems” opt for Paul than Republicans for Conway. Conway is improving among Dems though, losing 25% of them to Paul, down from 29% two months ago. The same holds true for Paul (maybe owing to his reconciliation with Mitch McConnell), losing 11% of Republicans now, down from 16% two months ago.

Regardless, it seems Conway will have to do a better job of holding Dems, and primary loser Dan Mongiardo’s recent endorsement asshattery surely isn’t doing Conway any favors. Maybe the doctor we have to worry about for now isn’t the rogue ophthalmologist, but Dr. Dan instead?