SSP Daily Digest: 7/12 (Afternoon Edition)

CO-Sen: Isn’t this the second time this has happened in about a month? Tom Tancredo says something ridiculous, Republican candidate with an eye on the general repudiates the statement, then walks back the repudiation once he realizes that the teabaggers’ widdle feewings might get hurt. This time it was Ken Buck (on whose behalf Tancredo called Barack Obama the “greatest threat to the United States today” last week); he might have been helped along in his flip-flopping after Jane Norton, who’s losing the primary because Buck outflanked her on the right, started going on about how she agreed with Tancredo,.

FL-Sen: Marco Rubio’s having a good day so far: he rolled out a ridiculously big fundraising number for the second quarter: $4.5 million raised. No mention of his CoH, though. (All eyes turn to Charlie Crist, though, for his first report after switching to an indie bid, to see whether that shrank or expanded his pool of donors.) Rubio’s second bit of good news is an endorsement from Crist’s former right-hand-man, temporary Sen. George LeMieux. (Since LeMieux reportedly has designs on Bill Nelson’s seat, and he seems to prefer running as a Republican and not on the Crist For Florida line, what else is he going to do, though?)

NH-Sen: I know, I know, straw poll, terrible gauge of broad public support, take with salt, bla bla bla. Still, here’s a barometer of where the hardcore Live Free or Die crowd currently stands: Ovide Lamontagne dominated the straw poll at the Taxpayer Reunion Picnic, an annual gathering of those who were teabagging long before it was cool. He won 109 to 74 over Jim Bender, a rich guy who’s going the crazy viral ad route. Establishment candidate Kelly Ayotte and moderate outsider Bill Binnie were at 23 and 10.

WA-Sen: Clint Didier, apparently aware of the stink lines of rank hypocrisy radiating off him, said that he’s swearing off farm subsidies in the future. (Seeing as how it made him look like the worst possible caricature of the teabaggers’ mantra of “I hate the gub’ment! Except when it’s giving me money for doing nothing!”) Apparently that was enough absolution for Rep. Ron Paul‘s satisfaction, as he threw his backing behind Didier this weekend.

WV-Sen: Rep. Shelly Capito Moore is at least honest about being scared about running for Senate (almost certainly against highly popular Gov. Joe Manchin), although she isn’t couching it in terms of being afraid of Manchin per se, instead saying “I’m afraid to lose momentum that I think I provide for the state.” At any rate, she says she’ll make her (seeming unlikely) decision whether to run in the next few days, probably coinciding with the clarification on the election’s when and how, to be decided in a July 15 legislative special session.

AZ-Gov: Ain’t that a kick in the head? State Treasurer Dean Martin, who was regarded as something of a frontrunner when he jumped into the GOP primary earlier this year, is suspending his campaign, ostensibly because he didn’t want to be a distraction to Gov. Jan Brewer as she fights lawsuits over SB 1070. In reality, Martin never really caught fire, first when rich self-funder Owen Buz Mills grabbed the not-Brewer mantle and then, mostly, when Brewer suddenly became belle of the right-wing ball when she signed SB 1070.

FL-Gov: Bill McCollum apparently didn’t want to be touting his fundraising numbers, but they’re out anyway, thanks to a court filing pertaining to Rick Scott’s challenge to the state public financing system. At any rate, McCollum’s sitting on a paltry $800K in cash, a mere blip compared to what Scott can pull out of his own wallet. Of course, Scott could still pull defeat out of the jaws of victory, by antagonizing pretty much the entire RPOF by trying to hang ex-state party chair Jim Greer around McCollum’s neck… and by staking his pro-life credentials on a family who are loudly preferring that he shut up about them.

GA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage, which offered its poll of the GOP primary last week, has a matching Dem poll today. The question for Dems isn’t whether Roy Barnes gets the most votes but whether he avoids a runoff, and they seem to err on the side of “no runoff:” Barnes is at 59, with Thurbert Baker at 15, and Dubose Porter and David Poythress both at 2, behind someone by the name of Bill Bolton (at 3). Meanwhile, on the GOP side, it seemed like something of an oversight that this endorsement hadn’t happened before, but Sarah Palin finally added Karen Handel to the ever-growing list of Mama Grizzlies. UPDATE: Thurbert Baker just got a top-tier endorsement, from Bill Clinton. It may be too late for that to matter much, though, because at this point Baker needs to not only win all the undecideds but peel away a significant number of Barnes voters. (H/t TheUnknown285.)

MI-Gov: Motor City endorsements aplenty in the Democratic gubernatorial primary in Michigan: Andy Dillon got the backing of former Detroit mayor Dennis Archer, who many observers thought would have made the strongest candidate had he run. Virg Bernero got endorsements from Detroit’s two House members, John Conyers and Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick.

MN-Gov: Republican nominee Tom Emmer seems to have dug a large hole for himself with his proposal to start including tips toward restaurant servers’ minimum wage requirement (which has the effect of slashing their hourly base pay); he’s planning on doing a “listening tour” with servers as atonement. Also adding to Emmer’s worries is blowback from his Sarah Palin endorsement, which helped him upset Marty Seifert at the GOP convention but is now already being used as a cudgel in general election advertising (courtesy of Matt Entenza). Meanwhile, Entenza’s Democratic rival Margaret Anderson Kelliher is running her first TV spot; the total buy is for only about $50K, though.

NE-Gov: Democrats in Nebraska seem to be actively considering just punting the ball, rather than trying to find a replacement candidate for nominee Mark Lakers. On the plus side, that would free up local Democratic money for other ventures (like the race in NE-02), in what was destined to be a thorough loss even with Lakers in the race. On the other hand, Tom White’s challenge to Lee Terry would probably benefit from having, well, something at the top of the ballot.

PA-Gov: If Tom Corbett is trying to position himself as a moderate for the general election, well, this isn’t the way. He’s publicly using the Sharron Angle line of argumentation that unemployment benefits cause more unemployment, because, naturally, people would rather live on their meager checks than go out and get one of those many abundant jobs that are out there. The ads write themselves… presuming the Democrats ever get around to actually writing them.

TN-Gov: A mysterious 527 (is there any other kind?) has emerged to pour money into the Tennessee GOP primary. There’s no word on who’s the power behind the throne for Tennesseans for a Better Tomorrow, but they’ll be advertising on behalf of Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey, who’s back in third in the polls and needs a surrogate to do the dirty work of negative advertising against Bill Haslam.

AZ-03: Jon Hulburd’s fundraising (and self-funding ability) is the main thing keeping this red-district open seat race at least somewhat on the map for the Dems; he’s announcing $250K raised last quarter. (No word on CoH.)

CO-04: Freshman Rep. Betsy Markey had a strong quarter, raising $530K and sitting on $1.5 million CoH. In this Republican-leaning district, she’ll need every penny of it to get through this year.

KS-04: Democratic State Rep. Raj Goyle, whose fundraising skills have put this dark-red open seat onto the map, is out with an introductory TV spot. Seems a little earlier for that, doesn’t it? We’d guess that he’s concerned about the primary (remember that there was a SurveyUSA poll a few weeks back that showed him not that far ahead of Some Dude with, well, a more ‘Merican sounding name) and not wanting to go the route of historical footnote Vic Rawl.

MO-08: Tommy Sowers, if nothing else, is showing a lot of hustle in his long-shot bid against GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson in this dark-red rural district. He says he’s passed the $1 million mark for funds raised over the total cycle (nothing specific on 2Q or CoH, though).

NJ-03: Democratic freshman Rep. John Adler seems to be putting some fundraising distance between himself and Jon Runyan. Adler raised $415K in 2Q to break the $2 million mark for CoH, while Runyan has about $500K in cash.

NY-01: Randy Altschuler’s got a whole lotta cash: he’s reporting $1.8 million CoH. A lot of that is coming right of the Altschuler family piggy bank, though. He raised a decent $257K last quarter, but loaned himself another $500K on top of that.

OH-16: Yikes! GOP nominee Jim Renacci must have some deep-pocketed connections from the high-stakes world of Arena Football, because he’s reporting $725K raised last quarter. (No word on CoH.)

PA-04: This is kind of a small haul to be touting (touting may not be the right word, actually, when even your own campaign adviser calls it “not half bad”), but maybe it’s a good amount when you weren’t even supposed to have won the primary in the first place. Keith Rothfus, who blasted establishment fave Mary Beth Buchanan in the GOP primary, says he has $200K CoH (up from $157K in his pre-primary report … no word on what he actually raised).

VA-05: Finally, here’s the delicious cherry on top of the shit sundae of fundraising reports: Tom Perriello announces that he raised $660K last quarter, giving him $1.7 million CoH. No word yet from Robert Hurt, but with $121K on hand in his May 19 pre-primary report, I can imagine it’s not in Perriello’s ballpark. The Richmond Times-Dispatch has an interesting compare-and-contrast enterprise in how Perriello and fellow vulnerable freshman Dem Glenn Nye are approaching their re-elections (Perriello emphasizing his base, Nye emphasizing his independence); clearly, based on these numbers, playing to the base can pay off, at least at the bank.

CA-LG (pdf): We’re still sweeping up from that last installment of the Field Poll. In the Lt. Governor’s race, there’s surprisingly good news for Dems, with Gavin Newsom looking solid against appointed GOPer Abel Maldonado, leading 43-34. The Attorney General results aren’t that surprising: Republican Los Angeles Co. DA Steve Cooley has a narrow edge over SF DA Kamala Harris, 37-34.

Illinois: It looks like we’ll never have another Scott Lee Cohen scenario again (or for that matter, probably not even another Jason Plummer scenario). Pat Quinn signed into law new legislation requiring, from now on, that Governor and Lt. Governor tickets are joined together before the primary, not after.

Rasmussen:

IN-Sen: Brad Ellsworth (D) 30%, Dan Coats (R) 51%

MD-Gov: Martin O’Malley (D-inc) 46%, Bob Ehrlich (R) 47%

126 thoughts on “SSP Daily Digest: 7/12 (Afternoon Edition)”

  1. http://www.salon.com/news/poli

    Pollster Scott Rasmussen, who maintains he is reliable and independent despite criticism from Democrats that he tilts to the right, will in November speak for no fee on a post-election National Review cruise to raise money for the conservative magazine.

    Besides Rasmussen, the week-long cruise features an impressive lineup of conservative operatives, journalists, and academics — Karl Rove, Andrew Breitbart, Phyllis Schlafly, and Jonah Goldberg, to name just a few — and will sail around the Caribbean stopping at ports in the Bahamas, Grand Cayman, and Cozumel, Mexico.

    Given concerns about the pollster’s Republican-friendly results, it’s safe to assume Rasmussen appearing on a cruise alongside right-wing celebrities to help National Review make money will not quiet fears that the pollster is far from independent.

  2. Palin’s endorsement of Handel makes perfect sense, neither of them understand the idea of actually serving a full term in office.

    Also, Handel’s the reason we have Brian Kemp as our current SoS! That alone is reason enough to vote against her.

    Interesting also that Palin endorses the only GOP Gubernatorial candidate NOT endorsed by the Georgia Right To Life.

    Finally, Handel’s got quite a history with the GA Log Cabin Republicans stemming from her stint as Fulton County Commission Chair. I guess one could argue that she had to reach out to different constituencies because it was a Metro seat, I think it’ll do more harm than good with Middle and South GA Republicans and even most Democrats.

  3. …that nothing else is on the ballot in Virginia this November.  It’s just the U.S. House seats.

    That means Perriello and Nye and everyone else needs voters to show up just for him.  Nothing else is happening to drive turnout (save perhaps for the scattered oddball special election for a vacant local office here or there).

    In that situation, who is going to show up just for Glenn Nye?  He’s got a tough sell to make.

    In contrast, Perriello has plenty to sell his base and persuade them to show up just for him.

    I’ve been on record for a long time that whatever happens to Perriello this November, he’ll outperform Nye.  If Perriello loses, Nye loses by a bigger margin.  If Nye wins, Perriello wins by a bigger margin.  I’m quite confident we won’t see a Nye win and Perriello loss, but the reverse is possible.  If I’m wrong and Nye outperforms Perriello, I’ll eat my words and will want to see exactly how such a thing could’ve happened.  It will have to have been that independents viewed the two very differently…but I don’t see that Nye is so favorably viewed by indies in what is really an anti-Democratic environment, and Nye is no Bobby Bright in his voting record, he’s half-assed it just enough to piss off everybody.

  4. • CO-Sen: Isn’t this the second time this has happened in about a month? Tom Tancredo says something ridiculous, Republican candidate with an eye on the general repudiates the statement, then walks back the repudiation once he realizes that the teabaggers’ widdle feewings might get hurt. This time it was Ken Buck (on whose behalf Tancredo called Barack Obama the “greatest threat to the United States today” last week); he might have been helped along in his flip-flopping after Jane Norton, who’s losing the primary because Buck outflanked her on the right, started going on about how she agreed with Tancredo,.

  5. Just got back from the beach-

    -Bentley leads, Byrne has momentum. Byrne signs are everywhere, and he has a much larger TV presence. I never saw one Bentley ad the whole week. I saw a bunch for Byrne and outside groups on Byrne’s behalf.

    -Rick Scott, big$$ groups supporting him, and Jeff Greene=extremely annoying. Ads are constantly playing.

    -Got pretty excited going thru MS, saw a Steven Palazzo sign.  

  6. They should just let the Governor choose their Lt. Gov candidate after they win the nomination.  If it’s good enough for the highest office in the land….plus if there’s a bruising primary, you can tap your vanquished foe as your runningmate for Party Unity (MA).

  7. Looks like Paul Broun Jr's involvement in a failed bank is getting a second look in a report to be released in September (h/t Blake Aued):

     

    The AJC has more details about the bank part-owned by Rep. Paul Broun going under.

    Not long before it lost its multi-year fight for survival, McIntosh Commercial Bank had lost so much money on such loans that, by one measure, it was financially the weakest of Georgia’s roughly 300 banks. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. estimates the closure will cost its deposit insurance fund more than $123 million.

  8. I actually doubt Corbett suffers because of his comments.  Even Onorato has given a very noncommittal statement when it comes to unemployment benefits.  If Onorato thought this was an issue, he would be out there saying he supports an extension of benefits instead of giving a wishy washy answer.

  9. This is off a a right wing website but I expect it will be on KSTP TV’s website tonight sometime tonight after their local news.

    http://www.minnesotademocratse

    Tom Hauser is reporting that Republican Michele Bachmann leads DFL challenger Tarryl Clark 48% to 39% in new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll.

    Margin of error is 4.2%. More at 6 pm.

    FWIW SUSA’s polls in Minnesota have been far more favorable to Republicans than other pollsters.

  10. Next year, I assume the RGA elects a new chairman. I think that chairman’s term would last until after the 2012 elections, correct? What if Barbour stays on as chairman? Would he just be replaced by whoever the new Vice chair is in 2012, after his term ends? Also, if he retires as chairman to pursue a 2012 pres bid, who replaces him? Most of the leadership of the RGA (Perdue, Pawlenty) are leaving office next year, and another (Crist) is no longer in the party. The only person that I know of currently in RGA leadership who is running for re-election is Perry. I guess he would become chairman?  

  11. In case she runs for Senate, or gov in 2011. Found some interesting prospects. My fav is Delegate Troy Andes. He is only 29 years old, so he would have a future in WV. Also, nearly every Republican leader in the Legislature has a district that overlaps heavily with this district.  

  12. Does the fact that he donated $1,000 to Nikki Tinker in 2006 right after her infamous race ad came out affect anyone’s opinion on him? I just found out where he got his campaign strategy from…

  13. It’s possible that there may be macro effects that outweigh this (e.g an increase in aggregate demand from people spending their unemployment benefits) but presumably there are many alternative stimulus methods that could also produce this effect.

    If unemployment benefits increase, unemployed people have more of an incentive to be selective with job offers (note that you can have too much patience) and not put as much effort into searching in the first place. This occurs even if everyone prefers a job to unemployment. Now, the size of this effect is what is upon to debate. It may well be that the size is quite small.

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