SurveyUSA for KSTP (6/14-16, likely voters, 5/3-5 in parens):
Mark Dayton (DFL): 39
Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 26
Matt Entenza (DFL): 22
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Mark Dayton (DFL): 38 (34)
Tom Emmer (R): 35 (42)
Tom Horner (IP): 12 (9)
Undecided: 15 (15)Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 33 (33)
Tom Emmer (R): 35 (41)
Tom Horner (IP): 12 (9)
Undecided: 21 (17)Matt Entenza (DFL): 33 (31)
Tom Emmer (R): 37 (42)
Tom Horner (IP): 12 (10)
Undecided: 18 (16)
(MoE: ±2.5%)
The newest SurveyUSA poll of the Minnesota governor’s race shows an unlikely political comeback underway: ex-Sen. Mark Dayton, who retired in 2006 because few people expected him to be able to win re-election, is now the favorite in the DFL primary against DFL-endorsed Margaret Anderson Kelliher, and also the only Dem currently beating Republican Tom Emmer.
It’s a better set of numbers for the Dems than the ones put up in the previous SurveyUSA poll, where Emmer had a substantial lead in the midst of a post-convention bounce. These numbers instead look much closer to the more recent MPR poll, which had Dayton beating Kelliher by 10 in the primary and Emmer by 4 in the general (while Emmer narrowly beat MAK and Entenza). The previous SurveyUSA poll was distinguished by much demographic weirdness in the crosstabs, but today’s poll has many of the same oddities (the Democratic primary sample in today’s poll, for instance, is only 34% liberal, is only 56% in the Twin Cities, and actually has 22% Tea Party supporters in it, while those 18-34 year olds still continue to be big Emmer backers)… so I suspect there is some real movement away from Emmer as his bounce fades, rather than merely a more favorable sample.
I put a lot of certainty behind that. And, honestly, I’m rooting for the man. I know that a lot of people don’t think very highly of him as a senator, but I always thought he was a great guy who had his emotional struggles. Great to see his comeback.
After an obvious outsider poll, another poll trying to disguise the first fault.
Still the numbers are worse than in the polls from other pollsters.
… for the most part. The 18-34 year olds for Emmer in the general is weird but the rest is pretty much in line with what I would expect.
BTW watch Horner. He is not some typical 3rd party gadfly, if he was the republican nominee instead of the IP nominee he would be the favorite IMO (He could never get the nomination in today’s republican party). He has the support of some big fundraisers and thinks he can raise $2.5 mill to run a 1st class campaign.