SurveyUSA for the Louisville Courier-Journal and WHAS-TV (7/27-29, likely voters, 5/25-27 in parentheses):
Jack Conway (D): 43 (45)
Rand Paul (R): 51 (51)
Undecided: 5 (4)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
SurveyUSA is out with its second post-primary poll in Kentucky, and it’s significantly more bullish on Rand Paul’s chances than other outfits like PPP, giving Paul a 51-43 lead over Dem AG Jack Conway. This is largely unchanged from two months ago, with Paul holding steady and Conway down two points.
It’s tempting to dismiss this as float within the MoE, given that Paul hasn’t exactly had the best two months since winning the primary. As is traditional with SurveyUSA’s polls, the crosstabs tend to be a little counterintuitive. Two months ago, Paul was winning both men (54-44) and woman (48-46), but now the gender gap’s intensified: Paul’s now winning men 57-38, but women have supposedly shifted to Conway 49-46.
The sample’s also shifted slightly in terms of partisan ID, going from 54-40-5 D-R-I to 50-37-12. Given (undoubtedly) the high number of old school Dixiecrats here, it’s little surprise that more “Dems” opt for Paul than Republicans for Conway. Conway is improving among Dems though, losing 25% of them to Paul, down from 29% two months ago. The same holds true for Paul (maybe owing to his reconciliation with Mitch McConnell), losing 11% of Republicans now, down from 16% two months ago.
Regardless, it seems Conway will have to do a better job of holding Dems, and primary loser Dan Mongiardo’s recent endorsement asshattery surely isn’t doing Conway any favors. Maybe the doctor we have to worry about for now isn’t the rogue ophthalmologist, but Dr. Dan instead?
So here’s a question for anyone from coal country – will Paul’s recent remarks that the government should not regulate the coal industry hurt him? I sure hope so.
wanna think Dr. Dan will endorse Rand Paul just to stick it to Conway and the party establishment for ruining his senate run?
I know 538 has them highly rated but they really have had some weird ass polls recently. Maybe I don’t trust them because their Minnesota Polls were way off in 2008 and have had a heavy republican lean this cycle.
BTW here is another SUSA poll I have a hard time believing.
http://www.whkp.com/index.php?…
I think we’d have to say Paul is the favorite if he doesn’t goof up.
But I don’t really think Mongiardo can be blamed for Conways trailing. Just because he endorses doesn’t mean his more conservative brand of Dem supporter would follow suit. Endorsements have never swayed my vote, and if there is a substantial difference in viewpoints/platform, it would matter even less.