Suffolk University (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 43
Bill Brady (R): 37
Scott Lee Cohen (I): 6
Rich Whitney (G): 3
Lex Green (L): 1
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (9/24-28, likely voters, 8/28-9/1 in parens):
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 39 (32)
Bill Brady (R): 38 (37)
Scott Lee Cohen (I): 4 (4)
Rich Whitney (G): 3 (2)
Lex Green (L): 2 (2)
Undecided: 12 (23)
(MoE: ±4%)
Suffolk University weighs in with its first poll of the race, showing Quinn with his biggest lead since….December 2009. The Chicago Tribune also has Pat Quinn surging to a lead, albeit a statistically insignificant one. Quinn’s job approval is up to 40/49 according to Suffolk and 33/48 according to the Trib, which – while terrible – is better than the 28/50 he saw last month. Perhaps most significantly, Quinn and Brady are now even in the collar counties, a large improvement from Quinn’s 17-point deficit. These socially moderate areas are where Quinn needs to do well – and where Brady’s extraordinarily conservative record as a state Senator might come to bite him.
Quinn hasn’t been shy on the airwaves with his “Who Is Bill Brady?” campaign, and from a purely anecdotal perspective, Democrats (at least that I’ve seen) seem to be coming home for Quinn… and they’re realizing that an [alleged] prostitute-cutting pawn shop owner might not be the best recipient of their protest votes if it results in a Governor Brady.
The Trib’s also not the only pollster showing some movement towards Quinn:
Public Policy Polling (9/23-26, likely voters, 8/14-15 in parens):
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 35 (30)
Bill Brady (R): 42 (39)
Scott Lee Cohen (I): 6(-)
Rich Whitney (G): 4 (11)
Lex Green (L): 2 (-)
Undecided: 11 (20)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
PPP has him down 7 and up to 35, which is up from being down 9 two months ago. Quinn’s still only getting 59% (!!) of self-reported Obama voters, but he’s doing much better among indies, now losing them 39-27 to Brady.
All three pollsters also have numbers from the Senate race, which remains close (and brutal on the airwaves, I might add…):
Suffolk University (9/30-10/3, likely voters, no trendlines):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 41
Mark Kirk (R): 42
LeAlan Jones (G): 4
Mike Labno (L): 3
Undecided: 10
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Market Shares Corp. for the Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV (9/24-28, likely voters, 8/28-9/1 in parens):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38 (34)
Mark Kirk (R): 36 (34)
LeAlan Jones (G): 5 (6)
Mike Labno (L): 3 (3)
Undecided: 17 (22)
(MoE: ±4%)
Public Policy Polling (9/23-26, likely voters, 8/14-15 in parens):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 36 (37)
Mark Kirk (R): 40 (35)
LeAlan Jones (G): 8 (9)
Mike Labno (L): 3 (-)
Undecided: 13 (19)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Both candidates’ favorables remain in the tank, at 33/48 for Alexi and 33/47 for Kirk, according to PPP.
Lastly, while the GOP’s been shut out of all statewide offices since 2006, that looks bounded for a change. For state Comptroller, south suburban State Rep. David Miller (D) trails former state Treasurer (and failed ’06 gubernatorial candidate) Judy Baar Topinka (R) by twenty points at 52-32 according to PPP or 39-23 by Suffolk, while Giannoulias aide Robin Kelly trails downstate state Rep. Dan Rutherford (R) for state Treasurer 34-42 by PPP and 26-32 according to Suffolk. (Fortunately, Democrats won’t be swept out statewide entirely, SoS Jesse White and AG Lisa Madigan are safe for re-election. Suffolk has White up 60-15, and Madigan up 63-14).
Ht the hell happened in the gov race?
Now they are not only this two polls, they are more what make appear the numbers of PPP as a outlier between the normal pollsters (The PPP numbers agree with Rasmussen and his new brand Pulse Opinion Research, and with We Ask America).
http://www.dcpoliticalreport.c…
IL-AG: Madigan (D) leading 63%-14%
IL-SoS: White (D) leading 60%-15%
IL-ST: Kelly (D) losing 26%-32% against Rutherford (R)
IL-SC: Miller (D) losing 23%-39% against Topinka (R)
As expected Topinka (former state treasurer 1995-2007 and 2006 gubernatorial nominee) appear strong.
I hope Kelly wins.
Quinn’s surge and the Treasurer race. Topinka has very high name recognition due to her run in ’06 for Governor. Honestly she’s a very sane Republican and I don’t mind her her winning at all. I am surprised that Robin Kelly is trailing, although with the huge number of undecideds I bet she brings it home on election day, she will rack of votes in Cook County.
Most pollsters have shown Jones with around 7-9 percent of the vote, and it’s good that his support seems to be dwindling. The less viable he seems, the more Cook County votes for Giannoulias.
Intrigued to see his Quinn-Brady numbers.