Tag: 2010 Liveblog

Looks like we’re still combing through the stems and seeds. Feel free to use this thread to sort out the wreckage.

UPDATES:

At least going by press release, we seem to have resolutions in three more gubernatorial races this morning:

Vermont is a Democratic pickup, for Peter Shumlin.

Democrats have conceded in Florida and Maine, meaning victories for Rick Scott and Paul LePage.

In addition, two more House races have been called in favor of the Democrats. Sanford Bishop, whose race was called against him and then uncalled, has now been called the winner in GA-02. And Gary Peters has narrowly survived his race in MI-09.

8:11am: Not sure how all your hangovers are doing this morning, but let’s just say the loss of Jim Oberstar to Chip Cravaack in MN-08, and Walt Minnick to Raul Labrador in ID-01 isn’t helping. This is offset by Colleen Hanabusa‘s victory over Charles Djou in Hawaii. It’s no OJ and greasy breakfast, but I’ll take it.

8:49am: My hungover self (jeffmd here) also missed the good news in Jim Matheson‘s re-election in UT-02, and Loretta Sanchez in CA-47.

Here are the races still outstanding:

For House:

NY-25: 96% reporting, Dan Maffei (D) leads by 2,200 votes.

VA-11: 99% reporting, Gerry Connolly (D) leads by 487.

KY-06: 99% reporting, Ben Chandler (D) leads by 600.

GA-02: 100% reporting, Sanford Bishop (D) had his race uncalled and is leading by 4,800.

MI-09: 90% reporting, Gary Peters (D) leads by 4,600 votes.

IL-08: 98% reporting, Melissa Bean (D) trails by 800 votes.

TX-27: 100% reporting, Solomon Ortiz (D) trails by 800 votes.

AZ-07: 99% reporting, Raul Grijalva (D) leads by 3,600.

AZ-08: 99% reporting, Gabby Giffords (D) leads by 2,500.

CA-11: 99% reporting, Jerry McNerney (D) trails by 23 votes.

CA-20: 100% reporting, Jim Costa (D) trails by 700.

WA-02: 64% reporting, Rick Larsen (D) trails by 1,400.

WA-09: 67% reporting, Adam Smith (D) leads by 9,500.

If these hold, we’ll be out another 5, -65 on the night.

For Senate:

Colorado: Michael Bennet (D) has a 5,000 vote edge, 87% reporting. Outstanding precincts in Boulder (67-29 Bennet), Arapahoe (49-46 Bennet); nothing reported from Chaffee or Hinsdale County. Chaffee voted narrowly for McCain, 49-49 in 2008; Hinsdale only cast 500 votes in 2008.

Washington: Patty Murray (D) leads by 14,000; 62% reporting.

Alaska: Write-ins have 41% of the vote, to Joe Miller’s 34% and Scott McAdams’ 25%.

For Governor:

Maine: Paul LePage (R) leads Eliot Cutler (I) by 6,200 votes with 89% reporting; Libby Mitchell is an utter fail back at 19%.

Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) trails by about 10,000 votes, 90% reporting.

Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) leads by 3,100 votes, but is 113 votes short of the 50% majority needed.

Florida: Alex Sink (D) trails by 50,000 votes with 99% reporting.

Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) leads by 9,200 votes with 99% reporting; indie Tom Horner back at 12%.

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) trails by 20,000 votes with 80% reporting.

and maybe, just maybe, the one piece of good news all night:

Illinois: I have no idea where Pat Quinn’s bag of tricks comes from, but miraculously, he’s leading by 8,300 votes with 75 Cook County precincts outstanding. 27 of them are in Suburban Cook County with the other 48 in the City of Chicago.

Better yet, 35 of the outstanding precincts overlap the black-majority 1st, 2nd, and 7th CDs, while another 6 overlap the Hispanic-majority 4th, with another 19 in the strongly Democratic 5th and 9th CDs on the North Side. Who woulda thunk it, Pat Quinn would be the one underdog to pull it out.

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3:33am: PS: feel free to keep using this thread as an open thread tomorrow morning; we probably won’t have any posts out of the gate early tomorrow.

3:25am: OK, I strongly suspect we aren’t going to see any more calls tonight. With that, SSP will call it a night, and we’ll sweep up more pieces in the morning. A bad night, at least on the House front, to be sure… but we’ll be right back at it tomorrow, looking at what we can pick off in 2012. And remember… if the last two years were any indication… being on offense (and having the power of righteous indignation behind you, instead of having to explain away your own party’s shortcomings) is just plain more fun.

3:14am: I wonder if we can go 2 for 2 on the remaining tossup seats in Arizona? Raul Grijalva’s up 48-46 in AZ-07 (90% in), while Gabby Gifford’s up 49-47 in AZ-08 (85% in).

3:09am: Up to 58% reporting in Alaska, where it’s still late evening. Lisa Murkowski appears to be holding on: 39 to 36 for Joe Miller and 24 for Scott McAdams. The real question will be whether all those thousands of write-ins survive the scrutiny process.

3:06am: Ooops, look like we never mentioned these calls from earlier. Joe Heck squeaked by Dina Titus in NV-03, 48-47, while Scott Tipton also had a narrow victory over John Salazar in CO-03, 49-47.

2:55am: So what’s left outstanding in the House? We’re only at 1% reporting in HI-01 according to CNN, so don’t look for an answer there, but currently Colleen Hanabusa leads GOP incumbent Charles Djou 54-46, so this may turn into our third pickup (especially given strong top-of-ticket support from Neil Abercrombie). There are still a few districts left where the GOP may be on track for a pickup, especially ID-01, where Walt Minnick trails 50-42, with 50% reporting. There are also super-small GOP leads in CA-11, TX-27, WA-02, and, unbelievably, IL-08, where Melissa Bean is down a few hundred votes to the unheralded Joe Walsh.

2:48am: Ah, wait, there are still three other gubernatorial races. IL-Gov is super-close: 46-46 with Pat Quinn slightly up, with 93% in, but with Cook County a sizable part of the remainder. He might yet pull this out. In Minnesota, Mark Dayton’s only up 44-43-12 now with 87% reporting, but we’re also waiting on a lot of votes out of Duluth, which is good for Dems (also good for James Oberstar, who’s in a dead heat in MN-08 still). In OR-Gov, Chris Dudley leads 50-48 over John Kitzhaber; if this is like the 2008 Senate race, Multnomah Co. (Portland) tends to trickle in later, so again, we might pull this out although the suburban numbers (from Washington and Clackamas Cos.) aren’t very encouraging.

2:45am: Good news in a few tight-as-a-tick House races. In OR-05, Kurt Schrader beats Scott Bruun, 51-46. And in UT-02, things finally got called for Scott Jim Matheson, where Morgan Philpot overperformed the polls; Matheson leads 51-45.

2:40am: A whole bunch of gubernatorial races are up for grabs still. The biggest prize left is FL-Gov, where Rick Scott leads Alex Sink 49-48, with 89% reporting (where it’s been stalled for many hours, so resolution tonight looks unlikely). With most of the remaining precincts in the Miami metro area (Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Cos.), she might be able to make that up though. Ditto CT-Gov, where Dan Malloy trails 51-48 with 78% reporting, but where the remaining votes seem mostly urban (like Bridgeport). This too will go down to the wire. The smaller New England states also have barnburners: VT-Gov is Peter Shumlin (D) over Brian Dubie 49-48 with 76% reporting, while in ME-Gov, Paul LePage (R) leads center-left indie Eliot Cutler 38-37 with 84% reporting (with Dem Libby Mitchell at a woeful 19).

2:33am: At this point, it’s up to the west coast crew (i.e. me) to sweep up the mess. Three Senate races remain outstanding. WA-Sen, as per usual Washington operating procedure, they reported about half of all votes and then shut it down for the night (seeing as how many valid ballots are still in the mail). Patty Murray leads Dino Rossi 51-49, which is about where I expect the race to stay, with 54% reporting. CNN is telling me that Ken Buck leads CO-Sen 48-47 with 80% reporting, but given the various ping-ponging of the numbers what with the screwed-up Boulder numbers, I have no idea. Finally, AK-Sen is out there, and I doubt we’ll know for weeks, but for now, with 38% reporting, it’s write-in (including Lisa Murkowski) 39, Joe Miller 35, Scott McAdams 25.

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One last thread for the night!

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

1:57: In other news, it looks like the GOP flipped at least 15 state legislative chambers.

1:54: TX-23 called for Quico Canseco (R).

1:50: NY-01 called for Tim Bishop.

1:49: Good news: NM-01 called for Dem Martin Heinrich. Also, it looks like the outstanding precincts in MI-09 are Dem-friendly.

1:48: The AP has called HI-Gov for Neil Abercrombie, in what looks like a big, 20-point win. Hopefully this bodes well for Colleen Hanabusa’s hopes in HI-01.

1:45: Well, well, well. It wouldn’t be an election night without some muffed numbers, now would it? The AP has un-called GA-02, and apparently Rep. Sanford Bishop is up by about 4,500 votes.

1:33: More:

51-45 tipton in CO-03, 76%; 50-46 Matheson in UT-02, 55%; 49-46 Grijalva, AZ-07, 68%; 49-47 Giffords, AZ-08, 59%; Heck by 1800 votes in NV-03, 25% in; ID-01, Minnick down 42-51, 24%; 51-46 Schrader, 82%, OR-05

1:30: Outstanding house races:

NY-01: 51-49 Bishop, 86%; NY-25: 51-49 Maffei, 94%; VA-11: Connolly by 500, 99%; Chandler by 600 in ky-06, 99%; 50-47 Peters in MI-09, 71%; Bean down 49-48 IL-08, 98%; Carnahan up 49-47 in MO-03, 99%; 48-47 Oberstar in MN-08, 45%; Farenthold by 800 votes in TX-27, 100%; 50-44 Quico in TX-23, 89%; 51.5-48.5 Heinrich in NM-01, 95%

1:25: Some early nums from Alaska: Write-ins 40, Miller 34, McAdams 25, with 26% reporting.

1:22: And in CA-18, Dennis Cardoza (D) defeats Mike Berryhill.

1:21: At least in WA-01, Jay Inslee hangs on.

1:19: In AZ-05, David Schweikert defeats Rep. Harry Mitchell.

1:12: Doug Hoffman’s cat fud from beyond the grave saves Bill Owens, who defeats Matt Doheney in NY-23.

1:08: Michael Bennet back on top in CO-Sen, 48-47 with 72% in. Heard some reports that the AP muffed the numbers out of Dem-friendly Boulder.

1:02: Bitter news, herb lovers: California’s Prop 19 won’t pass. No ganja break here – though as Ben said, when marijuana is decriminalized, only decriminals will have marijuana.

1:00am: Kristi Noem beats Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in SD-AL, which means James dreamed the future. WI-03 called for Ron Kind. NY-04 called for Carolyn McCarthy.

12:56am: Peter DeFazio (D) wins in OR-04.

12:49am: The Devil Wears Prada. Alternately, Ken Buck is now leading by 3% in Colorado. Additionally, Bobby Bright loses to Martha Roby (R) in AL-02.

12:44am: Suzan DelBene concedes to Dave Reichert in WA-08. Dems at two pickups for the night; Seals fail; Ami Bera trailing 43-49 to Dan Lungren (R) in CA-03.

12:42am: Harry Reid wins. Nuff said.

12:40am: Mike Oliverio (D) probably thought he’d get a free pass to Congress after beating Alan Mollohan, but nope, he loses to David McKinley in WV-01.

12:38am: Not a good night for the Carnahans; Russ is hanging on by 500 votes in MO-03 with 97% reporting.

12:36am: Maurice Hinchey (D) survives in NY-22, while across the country, Jaime Herrera (R) takes Brian Baird’s open WA-03 for the Rs.

12:35am: Nathan Deal (R) defeats Roy Barnes for GA-Gov.

12:33am: In a surprise, Michael McMahon loses to Mike Grimm in NY-13.

12:33am: Brock Landers er…Ben Quayle eats potatoe. And defeats Jon Hulburd for AZ-03.

12:32am: John Dingell declared the winner in MI-15.

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Ow.

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

12:30am: New party…over here.

12:27am: Bob Dold! (R) wins IL-10.

12:25am: David Rivera (R) wins FL-25.

12:21am: Senator Mark Kirk. Get used to it. (Also get used to Rep. Sean Duffy while you’re at it.)

12:19am: About GA-02… that was called for Mike Keown (R), but it may have to be un-called. Sanford Bishop actually has a very small lead now.

12:18am: Two gubernatorial calls for the GOP, both pickups. John Kasich has apparently won in Ohio, and Susana Martinez wins in New Mexico. Also, two House pickups in Arkansas (no surprises though): Rick Crawford in AR-01 and Tim Griffin in AR-02.

12:12am: Assorted bad news in the House, though. Chris Gibson is the victor in NY-20, beating Scott Murphy. Steve Chabot is back for more; he finally dispatched Steve Driehaus in OH-01. Tim Walberg is also back, beating Mark Schauer in MI-07. Finally, rogue dentist Paul Gosar defeats Anne Kirkpatrick in AZ-01. Dem holds are called in WA-06 (Norm Dicks) and MI-05 (Dale Kildee) though.

12:10am: Sorry about the clogged server, folks. The big news: CNN calls “the Dems hold the Senate.” I guess their call in California is enough to feel confident that nothing weird else might happen (at least nothing that doesn’t involve Joe Lieberman). Plus, Patty Murray is up (51-49) but she’s actually underperforming both Harry Reid and Michael Bennet, at least for the time being.

12:03am: His name is Governor Jerry Brown! His aura smiles and never frowns! (He will probably not be president.) CA-Gov has been called, for Moonbeam 2.0.

11:57pm: Per a DGA press release, it sounds like they’re treating Linc Chafee as the winner. That’s good enough for us.

11:55pm: Not the one, and not having fun: John Hall loses to Nan Hayworth (R) in NY-19.

11:54pm: Another Dem hold: MN-07 for Collin Peterson.

11:52pm: Calls in California and Pennsylvania for Barbara Boxer and Pat Toomey.

11:51pm: A few Dem holds: Mark Critz wins PA-12, while the AP calls CT-05 for Chris Murphy. Ben Lujan also wins NM-03.

11:48pm: Richard Hanna defeats NY-24 Dem incumbent Mike Arcuri. Charlie Bass (R) wins NH-02, and David Wu (D) holds OR-01.

11:44pm: Another Dem incumbent on the critical list is WI-03’s Ron Kind, who’s only leading Dan Kapanke by 49-48 with 58% in.

11:42pm: Two more calls: In MO-04, Vicki Hartzler defeats longtime Dem Rep. Ike Skelton. In MN-01, Dem Rep. Tim Walz wins.

11:40pm: Farewell to Handsome Harry Teague. Say hello again to Republican Steve Pearce in NM-02.

11:37pm: Well, this is a bit of a surprise, given how two-bit her campaign was… Renee Ellmers knocks off Dem Rep. Bobby Etheridge in NC-02.

11:34pm: Bill Keating holds onto MA-10 for Team Blue.

11:32pm: Guh? Harry Reid is leading by 53-43 with 11% reporting?

11:31pm: Legendary Dem Rep. Gene Taylor gets greased in MS-04. Say hello to GOP Rep-elect Steve Palazzo.

11:29pm: Bruce Braley lives to continue the fight in IA-01.

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Wow, utter devastation!

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

11:31: Time for some fresh thread.

11:26: Dave Loebsack hangs on in IA-02.

11:24: NY-29 called for Tom Reed, an expected R pickup. PA-06 called for Jim Gerlach – hope we see Manan Trivedi again, though.

11:23: In TX-27, Blake Farenthold is up by 77 votes with 88% reporting. Also, the results in New York are really crappy.

11:20: More craptastic news: In SC-05, Mick Mulvaney beats John Spratt.

11:19: In WA-03, Jamie Herrera is up big over Denny Heck, 57-43 (18%).

11:17: With 22% reporting, John Kitzhaber has a 57-41 lead in OR-Gov.

11:14: Michele Bachmann unsurprisingly wins in MN-06. Tight race in AL-02.

11:13: OH-12 called for Pat Tiberi. AR-02 called for Tim Griffin, so another GOP pickup.

11:11: A little bit of good news out of PA: PA-12 called for Mark Criz and PA-04 called for Jason Altmire.

11:08: PA-15 called for Charlie Dent, NY-27 called for Brian Higgins, KS-04 called for Mike Pompeo (wouldn’t be surprised if he gets primaried next cycle), AR-04 called for Blue Dog King Mike Ross, and in some very bad news, WI-08 called for roofer Reid Ribble, who beats Dem Rep. Steve Kagen.

11:06: Another shitty loss: Rick Berg beats Earl Pomeroy in ND-AL.

11:04: Kilroy Was Here. Steve Stivers beats Mary Jo Kilroy in OH-15.

11:04: Believe it: Mike Keown beats Rep. Sanford Bishop in GA-02.

11:03: Debbie Halvorson loses to Adam Kinzinger in IL-11. Nikki Haley wins in SC-Gov, but hopefully some shine is off her halo after a narrow victory. (DGA, where were you?)

11:01: CO-04 called for Corey Gardner (R). Hate to see Bill Foster lose in IL-14, but he goes down to Randy Hultgren. Sucks.

10:59: TX-25 called for Lloyd Doggett. Melissa Bean is losing in IL-08 and Bob Dold has a narrow lead in IL-10. Talk about sucky.

10:58: KS-03 called for Kevin Yoder. IA-03 called for Leonard Boswell. PA-07 called for Pat Meehan, so another GOP pickup.

10:55: Not terribly surprising: Teabagger Ron Johnson beats Russ Feingold in WI-Sen.

10:54: Just horrible: Patrick Murphy loses in PA-08 to Mike Fitzpatrick. Also, WI-Gov called for GOPer Scott Walker. And CT-04 apparently called for Dem Jim Himes, though the reported numbers are whack.

10:52: In PA-17, Tim Holden (D) wins. Emanuel Cleaver in MO-05 had an unexpectedly close race but hangs on.

10:51: Fuckity – Jim Renacci beats John Boccieri in OH-16.

10:50: Dems lead in MN-07 (Peterson 53-41) and MN-08 (58-38 Oberstar).

10:49: Republican Bill Johnson defeats Dem Charlie Wilson in OH-06.

10:44: NY-21 and 22 appear to be okay, but the rest of upstate… NY-23: Owens 48, Doheny 45 (9%); NY-24: Hanna 53, Arcuri 47 (16%); NY-25: Buerkle 51-49 (20%).

10:43: Some fugly numbers out of NY:NY-19: Hayworth 61-39 (10%); NY-20: Gibson 58-42 (10%).

10:41: In NY-09, Anthony Weiner (a late add to our big board) wins.

10:39: Ben Chandler is declaring victory in KY-06, but we may be headed to a recount there. NM-Gov is called for Susana Martinez (R).

10:38: MO-Sen called for Roy Blunt. Looks like a huge blowout.

10:37: MA-06 called for John Tierney.

10:36: SC-02 called for Joe Wilson (but note unimpressive margin). NE-02 called for Lee Terry. MA-05 called for Niki Tsongas.

10:34: PA-10: Tom Marino beats Chris Carney; PA-11: Lou Barletta beats Paul Kanjorski; MS-01: Alan Nunnelee beats Travis Childers, someone SSP supported big-time during the 2008 special election.

10:31: Some results from Louisiana: Joe Cao loses in LA-02 to Cedric Richmond, so it’s a Dem pickup, while Jeff Landry picks up LA-03 for the Republicans. In GA-12, John Barrow hangs on.

10:30: A DGA press release congratulates John Hickenlooper in CO-Gov, and that’s good enough for us.

10:28: RI-01, David Cicilline (the Dem) wins the open seat. In IL-17, sophomore Phil Hare (who didn’t even have an opponent last cycle) loses to Bobby Schilling (R).

10:27: In NJ-03, John Adler concedes. Better news in NJ-06, where Frank Pallone survives.

10:25: Thank god: Rush Holt is called the victor in NJ-12. Sadly, Zack Space loses in OH-18. Larry Kissell survives in NC-08.

10:24: Frank Kratovil loses in MD-01, while Mike Michaud (ME-02) and Mike McIntyre (NC-07) both survive.

10:23: Leads for David Rivera and Allen West down in Florida, for Scott Keown in GA-02.

10:22: Crap: PA-Gov called for Republican Tom Corbett. Not exactly surprising.

10:22: 19% in in ME, and Cutler’s still leading. Up 39-32-22.

10:20: This is barfy: Hultgren up 53-44 for in IL-14. And Melissa Bean is up just 50-47 with two thirds in, against what had seemed like a totally imploded Walsh campaign.

10:19: In IL-17, Bobby Schilling leads Phil Hare 54-42 with 60% in.

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Let’s get rolling.

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

10:19pm: Follow the action over here.

10:17pm: Two House calls: Austin Scott defeats Jim Marshall in GA-08, bringing his hippie-punching days to an end. However, on the plus side, Chellie Pingree holds on in ME-01, despite a few scary last minute polls.

10:15pm: One more gubernatorial call: Deval Patrick wins in Massachusetts. 49-42, with 8 for Cahill. Also looking good in MA: Bill Keating, up 47-41 in MA-10.

10:13pm: Two gubernatorial calls for the GOP. Tom Corbett wins in Pennsylvania, a pickup. He’s only at 53-47, though, with 57% reporting. Also, Dave Heineman wins, very unsurprisingly, in Nebraska.

10:09pm: Mike Kelly has been called the winner in PA-03. Up 55-45 with 77% in.

10:06pm: The GOPers lead the two open seats in Arkansas, the 1st by 10 and the 2nd by 15. Mike Ross looks OK in the 4th, up by 12.

10:05pm: Uh, here’s a surprise. John Robitaille is leading the RI Governor’s race right now, thanks to the split: 34-32 (Chafee)-27 Caprio (17% in). Also, Tom Foley’s up 52-46 with 21% in, continuing the Dems’ CT-Gov jinx.

10:04pm: In Colorado, the GOPers are leading in CO-03 and CO-04, while Ed Perlmutter is hanging on in CO-07.

10:02pm: Two more calls that will bring smiles to the faces of Big Agriculture and Big Diaper: Stephen Fincher in TN-08 (an open seat pickup) and David Vitter in LA-Sen.

9:59pm: One more GOP open seat pickup: Dan Benishek wins MI-01, by a 53-39 margin. Some races where the Dem leads, though, with majority reporting, are AL-02, NC-08, and NC-07 (none by crushing margins though).

9:56pm: Ben Chandler’s up by less than a point in KY-06, with 86% in. Also very close: Gene Taylor leads by about 2, with 36% in in MS-04. NC-02 is a dead heat now, with Renee Elmers up 50-49 with 76% in.

9:54pm: In Pennsylvania, Kathy Dahlkemper’s losing in PA-03, down 54-46. Unfortunately, though, Patrick Murphy has fallen behind in PA-08 after an early lead, now down 52-48. Chris Carney also trails in PA-10, and Jason Altmire is leading but only by a few points in PA-04.

9:52pm: A couple of our northeastern open seats are looking salvageable: RI-01 is 51-44 in favor of Cicilline (with 35% in) and NH-02 is tied at 48 with about a quarter in. Another race to watch: PA-15 keeps being interesting, with John Callahan actually leading 47-46 with 28% in.

9:50pm: Two gubernatorial calls for the GOP, one a pickup: Rick Snyder will be the next governor of Michigan, while Robert Bentley wins in Alabama.

9:48pm: Possibly two pleasant surprises in South Carolina: both SC-Gov and SC-02 are dead heats. Dems trail by less than two points in each race. (That’s Nikki Haley and Joe Wilson, who should be cruising.)

9:45pm: Two calls for Dems in worrisome races: Heath Shuler wins in NC-11 (54-46) and in OH-13, Betty Sutton turns away Mr. Grabbyhands (61-39). In Illinois, we’re up in IL-14 and surprisingly almost tied in IL-11 (though still down a couple), but getting spanked in IL-17.

9:41pm: Mary Fallin (R) is the next Governor of Oklahoma.

9:39pm: David Price is victorious in NC-04, winning 55-45 with 82% in.

9:38pm: Bill Flores knocks off Dem Rep. Chet Edwards in TX-17.

9:37pm: Nick Rahall survives in WV-03. (57-43 with 58% reporting.)

9:36pm: Dan Boren wins OK-02. (61-39 right now.)

9:34pm: Joe Donnelly manages to survive in IN-02. Dennis Daugaard (R) wins SD-Gov.

9:30pm: Steve Southerland beats Dem Rep. Allen Boyd in FL-02. Jo Ann Emerson romps in MO-08. MA-04 has been called for Barney Frank. TN-04 has been called for Scott DesJarlais, who absolutely destroyed Dem Rep. Lincoln Davis by 58-38.

9:28pm: Some more Dem incumbents on the critical list: Phil Hare, Ike Skelton, and Solomon Ortiz — all these dudes are trailing right now.

9:27pm: We may have neglected to mention this on the front page, but Scott Rigell beat Dem frosh Glenn Nye in VA-02.

9:24pm: Dan Seals trails Bob Dold by 53-47 with half the vote in. Not good, but some of the more liberals areas of the district have yet to report, though…

9:23pm: Rick Perry beats Bill White in Texas. Right candidate, wrong year…

9:19pm: Some calls: In FL-12, Dennis Ross beats Dem Lori Edwards. In TN-06, Republican Diane Black picks up another open seat win for the GOP. In NH-01, Frank Guinta beats Dem Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. MS-02 has been called for Dem Rep. Bennie Thompson. Dem Rep. John Larson holds on in CT-01. Dem Gov. Martin O’Malley wins re-election in MD-Gov. And Johnny Isakson wins GA-Sen.

9:18pm: CNN is projecting the House to go to the Republicans. Not really surprising… still lots of details to shake out, though.

9:16pm: Wow. 27% in, and Dem Vince Sheheen is leading Nikki Haley by 53-46 in South Carolina’s gube race.

9:15pm: KS-Gov has been called for Sam Brownback.

9:12pm: In, PA-03 GOPer Mike Kelly leads Kathy Dahlkemper, 54-46 with 15% in. In PA-08, Murphy leads 53-47 with 3% in. In PA-10, Marino leads 52-48 with 22% in. In PA-11, Barletta leads 54-46 (19% in). In PA-15, Dem John Callahan is actually up by 50-44 with 10% in. And in PA-17, Dem Tim Holden leads 68-32 with 3% in.

9:11pm: Uh, with 19% reporting, Quinn leads Brady in IL-Gov 61-32. Wow. (All Cook Co?) Also, Strickland still up in OH-Gov 49-47 with 25% in.

9:07pm: ND-Sen has been called for John Hoeven, NY-Gov has been called for Andrew Cuomo, and NY-Sen-B has been called for Kirstin Gillibrand.

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Brace yourselves for maximum impact.

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

9:11pm: Follow us over here.

9:00pm: Sorry things are getting a little pokey with our servers. IN-07 has been called for Andre Carson, so we can stop worrying about that one. IN-02, with 85% in, is a 48-47 lead for Joe Donnelly. This one’ll be tight. Also close: MA-10, where Keating is up 46-44 with 10% reporting. Barney Frank is crushing in MA-04, that was a lot of panic over nothing. Also good news: Patrick Murphy leads 52-48 in PA-08 with 2% reporting. Lots of bad news, though: we’re trailing in NJ-03, NJ-12, MI-01, and MI-07.

8:57pm: NC-Sen has been called; Richard Burr beats the curse on the cursed seat. It’s a GOP hold, as he leads Elaine Marshall 54-44.

8:54pm: How about some House races where we’re winning? WV-01, WV-03 (thanks to the Manchine coattails), NC-02, NC-08, NC-11, MA-05, and MA-06.

8:52pm: Some other House races where we’re currently trailing: KS-03, TX-23, TX-17, SC-05.

8:50pm: Two more House calls, both GOP pickups: Daniel Webster beats Alan Grayson in FL-08, and Todd Young beats Baron Hill in IN-09.  

8:45pm: Well, this is a drag, although a moment that was always likely. VA-05 has been called for Robert Hurt, beating Tom Perriello.

8:44pm: Two gubernatorial calls: TN-Gov called for Bill Haslam, which is a GOP pickup. Arkansas stays in Mike Beebe’s hands (a Democratic hold).

8:41pm: Two very important Senate calls: Joe Manchin has won in WV-Sen, and Richard Blumenthal has won in CT-Sen. Do the math: that makes GOP control well nigh impossible, short of some sort of Lieberman-related hijinks. However, one more Senate GOP takeaway to report: John Boozman defeats Blanche Lincoln. With 0% reporting! They’re that sure.

8:40pm: Here are some House race calls. IN-08 for Larry Buchson, one more GOP pickup. OH-09 and OH-10 are called for Marcy Kaptur and Dennis Kucinich, respectively.

8:35pm: Other northeast gov races are going according to plan: Martin O’Malley is winning in MD, 54-44 (4% in), and Deval Patrick is winning in MA, 49-43-7 (2% in). Dan Onorato is actually up in PA, 51-49 (1% in, but I won’t expect that to last). Further afield, TN and OK are headed for the GOP column, though not called yet. Bill Haslam’s up 71-28, while Mary Fallin’s up a more pedestrian 59-41.

8:32pm: Yikes, here’s one more House takeaway, and it’s one a lot of prognosticators didn’t see coming. Rick Boucher loses to Morgan Griffith in VA-09. Cap ‘n’ trade’s first casualty.

8:30pm: Two very tight gubernatorial races in New England. In CT-Gov, it’s 49-49 between Malloy and Foley, with 2% in. And in Maine, it looks like Eliot Cutler made a race of it after all. He and Paul LePage are tied 41-41, with Libby Mitchell at 18, with 1% reporting.

8:27pm: Ted Strickland is still hanging in there in OH-Gov, up 51-45 with 13% reporting. Marco Rubio still leads 50-30-20 over Crist and Meek, with 46% in, not that it matters as that’s been called.

8:23pm: Our first House loss of the night is certified: FL-24 is called for Sandy Adams, who wins about 60-40 with 44% in. (Remember that Suzanne Kosmas had one of the biggest victory margins of all the 08 frosh, over the hapless Feeney.)

8:19pm: In MD-01, Harris leads Dem Frank Kratovil by 56-41 with 0.7% in. In TX-17, Chet Edwards is up 53-46 in the early vote, while Quico Canseco leads Dem Ciro Rodriguez by 50-46 with 1% in.

8:15pm: Some other various gube updates: Deal’s up 59-37 in GA-Gov with 6% in, and Scott’s up 50-46 with 14% in in FL-Gov. In Ohio, Ted Strickland is somehow leading by 53-43, and Nikki Haley leads Vince Sheheen by 53-46 in South Carolina. In Vermont, Dubie (R) leads by 52-45.

8:14pm: Our first catch of the day: DE-AL has been called for John Carney.

8:12pm: NH-Gov has been called for Dem incumbent John Lynch.

8:10pm: In VA-11, Keith Fimian leads Dem Rep. Gerry Connolly by 51-47 with 4% in.

8:09pm: A bit of good news — Joe Donnelly has pulled ahead in IN-02, 49-46 with 55% reported.

8:07pm: Kelly Ayotte wins NH-Sen.

8:06pm: Also, the early returns are favoring Joe Manchin in WV-Sen by 53-45, but only 0.1% is in.

8:04pm: We have some Senate calls: Marco Rubio wins FL-Sen, Chris Coons wins DE-Sen and, shockingly, Barb Mikulski beats the odds and wins re-election in Maryland.

8:00pm: Some results from the Tarheel state: In NC-02, Etheridge (D-inc) leads 71-27, David Price (D-inc) trails 49-51 in NC-04, Mike McIntyre (D-inc) leads 55-45 in NC-07, Larry Kissell (D-inc) leads 52-45, and Jeff Miller (R) leads by 10% over Heath Shuler (D-inc) in NC-11.

7:59pm: A boatload of states are just about to close… AL, CT, DE, IL, KS, ME, MD, MA, MI, MS, MO, NJ, ND, OK, PA, SD, TN, and TX.

7:54pm: IN-03 was just called for Republican Marlin Stutzman. Hardly a surprise, but I think there’s a campaign pollster out there that either should be shot or should not have allowed the campaign to put out such a whiffer of a fudged poll…

7:51pm: Does Allen Boyd have any chance? He’s down 55-39, with 3% in. In OH-06, Charlie Wilson leads 51-45 in what looks like the early vote.

7:48pm: Hey, a vulnerable Democrat is ahead! In GA-02, embattled Dem incumbent Sanford Bishop leads 58-42 with 1% in. In, GA-08 GOPer Austin Scott is crushing Dem Jim Marshall by 58-42 (also with 1% in). Conservadem kingpin John Barrow’s up 55-45 in GA-12.

7:47pm: In VA-05, Hurt’s back in lead at 52-46 with 27% in; in VA-09 Griffith leads Rick Boucher by 52-46 (with 16% in).

7:44pm: Per CNN, KY-03 has been called for John Yarmuth. Well, at least we’re keeping two of the frosh class of 2006 (counting Vermont’s Pete Welch in the equation).

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Time to change the sheets.

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

7:37pm: Lots of data coming in fast now: most of all, OH-Sen has already been called (0% reporting). On the good side, check this out: Tom Perriello is leading, 50-48, with 7% in, in VA-05. Other stuff: NH-01 looks tight, with Frank Guinta leading 49-46 with 1% in. FL-08 doesn’t look tight: Daniel Webster leads 63-28 with 6% reporting. With 7% in, Morgan Griffith is leading in VA-09, 54-44.

7:32pm: While Kentucky’s looking OK, Indiana isn’t. In fact, Baron Hill isn’t performing any better than Trent Van Haaften (GOPers lead 54-41 in IN-08 with 23% in, 55-40 in IN-09 with 19% in). Joe Donnelly trails 56-38 in IN-02, but that’s without any of St. Joseph or LaPorte Cos. reporting (11% in). Even Andre Carson (IN-07) is up by only 8 in his pretty safe district.

7:30pm: As expected, things are moving toward Yarmuth in KY-03: he now leads 52-46 with 4.7% reporting. In KY-06, Barr leads 54-46 with 44% reporting.

7:25pm: Also some FL-Gov data. 0% is reporting, but that includes nearly 200,000 votes. (I knew Florida was a large state, but still…) Rick Scott leads Alex Sink 48-47. That’s without any Dem-favorable counties. (Unless you count Pinellas as one.)

7:22pm: Wow, FL-Sen data is coming in and it’s close for now: Marco Rubio leads only 42-40 over Charlie Crist (with Kendrick Meek at 17). Before you start getting excited, though, most of that is from Pinellas County, which is Crist’s home base.

7:20pm: One other very uneventful call: VT-Sen has been called for Patrick Leahy, also with 0% reporting.

7:15pm: I guess this just wasn’t Alvin Greene’s night. The race was just called for Jim DeMint. With 0% reporting. DeMint wins 0-0!

7:10pm: Looks like we have our first major calls of the night: Rand Paul wins KY-Sen, and Dan Coats wins IN-Sen.

7:08pm: We’ve got very wide divergence in the two races that are sort of the early-going bellwethers (IN-02, KY-06). In the 6th, Ben Chandler’s now up 56-44, with 18% reporting. No more news in KY-03. It’s 55-45 for Paul in KY-Sen, with 8.5% reporting.

7:06pm: IN-Sen is at 4.7% reporting, Coats up 55-40. Things don’t look so good in IN-09 with 6.6% in now: Todd Young leads 53-42. No new numbers in IN-02.

7:04pm: While we wait for more data to roll in, h/t to Paleo in the comments, for posting exit poll data for the Senate races. Blumenthal +8, Boxer +8, Kirk + 6, Johnson +5, Bennet +2, Murray +6, Toomey +4, Manchin +7, Reid even. (Before you get too excited let me just say one word: 2004.)

6:59pm: No, sorry, brain fart. Paul’s lead is 8 (54-46, with 2.1% reporting).

6:57pm: Who’d have thunk that IN-Sen would look closer than KY-Sen? Coats leads by 9, while Paul leads by 11.

6:54pm: Uh oh. We’re getting our first numbers in KY-03. Todd Lally’s actually in the lead: 53-46, with 1.4% reporting. (This, like many urban districts, may be one where Louisville proper reports later.) Ben Chandler’s still holding on in KY-06, though: 53-48 with 1.9% reporting.

6:53pm: Up to 2.4% reporting in IN-09. Todd Young leads Baron Hill 50-46.

6:51pm: Most of those IN-02 votes seem to be from Cass County (figured out by overlaying the Senate map). It’s pretty red (McCain 53/Obama 45).

6:45pm: All the way up to 10% reporting in IN-08. Larry Buchson leads Trent Van Haaften 52-43. Looking like a loss, but not awful numbers given that this was pretty much a writeoff. In IN-09, only 0.2% reporting, with Todd Young leading Baron Hill 54-43. In IN-02, with 5% reporting, the Jackie Walorski lead is down to 58-37. I’d expect this to tighten, but can’t say — under the new reporting regime, nobody seems to report House races with county data!

6:38pm: CNN is saying they’re up to 2% in IN-Sen, with Coats leading by a more predictable 54-41 now. With 1% in in KY-Sen, Paul leads Conway 57-43. In each case, we’re seeing rural parts of the state reporting.

6:33pm: Yikes, we have some IN-02 numbers, with Jackie Walorski up 62-34 over Joe Donnelly. I have to assume that’s a rural part of the district.

6:29pm: Until I can delve into the counties a little more, I don’t know if this is significant, but Dan Coats is leading Brad Ellsworth only 50-46, with 0.5% reporting. (Ah, here’s the story: Ellsworth leads in Vigo and Knox Counties, but those are both in his district, IN-08.)

6:26pm: KY-05: Long-time GOPer Hal Rogers lives to fight yet again.

6:22pm: In KY-06, we’re seeing some progress for Ben Chandler, now leading by 9 votes (out of 1,600 or so). 0.3% reporting. Importantly, none of this is Fayette Co. (where Lexington, college town, is.)

6:20pm: In Indiana, literally 0.0% is reporting, but Dan Coats still somehow leads Brad Ellsworth 55-40. IN-05 and IN-06 have been called for Dan Burton and Mike Pence, to absolutely no one’s surprise. The only contested race we’re seeing anything from is IN-08, where Larry Buchson leads 51-44, with 0.2% reporting.

6:17pm: Actually, we have some teeny-tiny results from Kentucky. Rand Paul’s up 56-43 in the Senate race, with 0.1% reporting. The results are mostly coming from GOP CDs. A few are in from KY-06, where Andy Barr is up by 70 votes with 0.3% reporting.

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Polls have just closed in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. With 0% of precincts reporting, amazingly no Democrats have lost any races yet. We’ll update once we see some action.

RESULTS:

• Indiana: IN SoS

• Kentucky: KY SoS | Politico