Liveblog Thread #7

8:11am: Not sure how all your hangovers are doing this morning, but let’s just say the loss of Jim Oberstar to Chip Cravaack in MN-08, and Walt Minnick to Raul Labrador in ID-01 isn’t helping. This is offset by Colleen Hanabusa‘s victory over Charles Djou in Hawaii. It’s no OJ and greasy breakfast, but I’ll take it.

8:49am: My hungover self (jeffmd here) also missed the good news in Jim Matheson‘s re-election in UT-02, and Loretta Sanchez in CA-47.

Here are the races still outstanding:

For House:

NY-25: 96% reporting, Dan Maffei (D) leads by 2,200 votes.

VA-11: 99% reporting, Gerry Connolly (D) leads by 487.

KY-06: 99% reporting, Ben Chandler (D) leads by 600.

GA-02: 100% reporting, Sanford Bishop (D) had his race uncalled and is leading by 4,800.

MI-09: 90% reporting, Gary Peters (D) leads by 4,600 votes.

IL-08: 98% reporting, Melissa Bean (D) trails by 800 votes.

TX-27: 100% reporting, Solomon Ortiz (D) trails by 800 votes.

AZ-07: 99% reporting, Raul Grijalva (D) leads by 3,600.

AZ-08: 99% reporting, Gabby Giffords (D) leads by 2,500.

CA-11: 99% reporting, Jerry McNerney (D) trails by 23 votes.

CA-20: 100% reporting, Jim Costa (D) trails by 700.

WA-02: 64% reporting, Rick Larsen (D) trails by 1,400.

WA-09: 67% reporting, Adam Smith (D) leads by 9,500.

If these hold, we’ll be out another 5, -65 on the night.

For Senate:

Colorado: Michael Bennet (D) has a 5,000 vote edge, 87% reporting. Outstanding precincts in Boulder (67-29 Bennet), Arapahoe (49-46 Bennet); nothing reported from Chaffee or Hinsdale County. Chaffee voted narrowly for McCain, 49-49 in 2008; Hinsdale only cast 500 votes in 2008.

Washington: Patty Murray (D) leads by 14,000; 62% reporting.

Alaska: Write-ins have 41% of the vote, to Joe Miller’s 34% and Scott McAdams’ 25%.

For Governor:

Maine: Paul LePage (R) leads Eliot Cutler (I) by 6,200 votes with 89% reporting; Libby Mitchell is an utter fail back at 19%.

Connecticut: Dan Malloy (D) trails by about 10,000 votes, 90% reporting.

Vermont: Peter Shumlin (D) leads by 3,100 votes, but is 113 votes short of the 50% majority needed.

Florida: Alex Sink (D) trails by 50,000 votes with 99% reporting.

Minnesota: Mark Dayton (D) leads by 9,200 votes with 99% reporting; indie Tom Horner back at 12%.

Oregon: John Kitzhaber (D) trails by 20,000 votes with 80% reporting.

and maybe, just maybe, the one piece of good news all night:

Illinois: I have no idea where Pat Quinn’s bag of tricks comes from, but miraculously, he’s leading by 8,300 votes with 75 Cook County precincts outstanding. 27 of them are in Suburban Cook County with the other 48 in the City of Chicago.

Better yet, 35 of the outstanding precincts overlap the black-majority 1st, 2nd, and 7th CDs, while another 6 overlap the Hispanic-majority 4th, with another 19 in the strongly Democratic 5th and 9th CDs on the North Side. Who woulda thunk it, Pat Quinn would be the one underdog to pull it out.



3:33am: PS: feel free to keep using this thread as an open thread tomorrow morning; we probably won’t have any posts out of the gate early tomorrow.

3:25am: OK, I strongly suspect we aren’t going to see any more calls tonight. With that, SSP will call it a night, and we’ll sweep up more pieces in the morning. A bad night, at least on the House front, to be sure… but we’ll be right back at it tomorrow, looking at what we can pick off in 2012. And remember… if the last two years were any indication… being on offense (and having the power of righteous indignation behind you, instead of having to explain away your own party’s shortcomings) is just plain more fun.

3:14am: I wonder if we can go 2 for 2 on the remaining tossup seats in Arizona? Raul Grijalva’s up 48-46 in AZ-07 (90% in), while Gabby Gifford’s up 49-47 in AZ-08 (85% in).

3:09am: Up to 58% reporting in Alaska, where it’s still late evening. Lisa Murkowski appears to be holding on: 39 to 36 for Joe Miller and 24 for Scott McAdams. The real question will be whether all those thousands of write-ins survive the scrutiny process.

3:06am: Ooops, look like we never mentioned these calls from earlier. Joe Heck squeaked by Dina Titus in NV-03, 48-47, while Scott Tipton also had a narrow victory over John Salazar in CO-03, 49-47.

2:55am: So what’s left outstanding in the House? We’re only at 1% reporting in HI-01 according to CNN, so don’t look for an answer there, but currently Colleen Hanabusa leads GOP incumbent Charles Djou 54-46, so this may turn into our third pickup (especially given strong top-of-ticket support from Neil Abercrombie). There are still a few districts left where the GOP may be on track for a pickup, especially ID-01, where Walt Minnick trails 50-42, with 50% reporting. There are also super-small GOP leads in CA-11, TX-27, WA-02, and, unbelievably, IL-08, where Melissa Bean is down a few hundred votes to the unheralded Joe Walsh.

2:48am: Ah, wait, there are still three other gubernatorial races. IL-Gov is super-close: 46-46 with Pat Quinn slightly up, with 93% in, but with Cook County a sizable part of the remainder. He might yet pull this out. In Minnesota, Mark Dayton’s only up 44-43-12 now with 87% reporting, but we’re also waiting on a lot of votes out of Duluth, which is good for Dems (also good for James Oberstar, who’s in a dead heat in MN-08 still). In OR-Gov, Chris Dudley leads 50-48 over John Kitzhaber; if this is like the 2008 Senate race, Multnomah Co. (Portland) tends to trickle in later, so again, we might pull this out although the suburban numbers (from Washington and Clackamas Cos.) aren’t very encouraging.

2:45am: Good news in a few tight-as-a-tick House races. In OR-05, Kurt Schrader beats Scott Bruun, 51-46. And in UT-02, things finally got called for Scott Jim Matheson, where Morgan Philpot overperformed the polls; Matheson leads 51-45.

2:40am: A whole bunch of gubernatorial races are up for grabs still. The biggest prize left is FL-Gov, where Rick Scott leads Alex Sink 49-48, with 89% reporting (where it’s been stalled for many hours, so resolution tonight looks unlikely). With most of the remaining precincts in the Miami metro area (Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Cos.), she might be able to make that up though. Ditto CT-Gov, where Dan Malloy trails 51-48 with 78% reporting, but where the remaining votes seem mostly urban (like Bridgeport). This too will go down to the wire. The smaller New England states also have barnburners: VT-Gov is Peter Shumlin (D) over Brian Dubie 49-48 with 76% reporting, while in ME-Gov, Paul LePage (R) leads center-left indie Eliot Cutler 38-37 with 84% reporting (with Dem Libby Mitchell at a woeful 19).

2:33am: At this point, it’s up to the west coast crew (i.e. me) to sweep up the mess. Three Senate races remain outstanding. WA-Sen, as per usual Washington operating procedure, they reported about half of all votes and then shut it down for the night (seeing as how many valid ballots are still in the mail). Patty Murray leads Dino Rossi 51-49, which is about where I expect the race to stay, with 54% reporting. CNN is telling me that Ken Buck leads CO-Sen 48-47 with 80% reporting, but given the various ping-ponging of the numbers what with the screwed-up Boulder numbers, I have no idea. Finally, AK-Sen is out there, and I doubt we’ll know for weeks, but for now, with 38% reporting, it’s write-in (including Lisa Murkowski) 39, Joe Miller 35, Scott McAdams 25.


One last thread for the night!

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

354 thoughts on “Liveblog Thread #7”

  1. Duluth dumped what appears to be most of its votes.

    It boosted Dayton up to a margin of about 20,000. It also put Oberstar about 3000 votes up. Morrison (Republicans should net 3000 votes each here) hasn’t reported ANYTHING (WTF?!?!) But there are also large sums of votes remaining in the smaller Iron Range counties. Dayton will win by at least 20,000. Oberstar will hold out and win by a couple thousand. I honestly am shocked at his low margin. But I truly believe he hangs it up after this cycle and passes the reigns over to Sertich.

  2. Looks like we got Hawaii50 picked up (HI-1).  Hanabusa is up 54-46

    – Sen races in Colorado and Washington will not be known for months most likely with recounts

    getting sleepy – been watching the results at a friends’ house and talking with my good gop friend (now owe him $20 on a 50 over/under wager – guess who picked under)

    – Dem Matt Zeller in my district, NY-29, had a great showing by over performing the pvi getting 44% of the vote while being significantly outspent.

  3. Maybe it’s knowing the cancers like Lincoln, Bright, Marshall, Taylor, etc have gotten their just desserts.  Maybe it’s knowing that we’ll come back as the Republicans are overextended now.

  4. Even more than the loss of Democratic governors will hurt the party are the losses of state legislatures.  I mean, for heaven’s sake the GOP here in Michigan now have a supermajority in the state senate; they quite literally don’t even have to consult with the Dems, anymore.  I can’t even remember the last time that happened.

    What’s something that’s not talked about here in Michigan is that a lot of these new state house and senate candidates are tea partiers, and they are going to fight our new moderate governor like hell.  I predict it’ll even be worse than the current fights between Granholm and the Republican senate, to be honest.  

    I’m really worried about the direction of this country.  We can’t keep having wave elections every two years.  That’s not sustainable.  You can’t govern like that.  The American people are going to have to grow up, and stop throwing out the baby with the bathwater every other year.  We can’t keep doing this.

  5. I know, I know: ridiculously premature. But we’re looking at a pretty big Republican majority, of about 240, give or take a few.

    Of course, retaking the House is probably dependent on Obama winning reelection. But let’s game this out: if Obama were to face off against a relatively generic Republican like, say, Romney or Thune, and win by at least 4-5 points, how many House seats could we realistically pick up?

    How many of these GOP pickups are going to be hard for them to hold on to?

  6. that you don’t need any actual qualifications to be elected to office.

    In other words, that means that any single one of us could get elected. Even the underage ones honestly. Even they are probably more fit to hold office than Dudley and they’re not even constitutionally eligible.  

  7. Democrats pretty much went down in flames, even in the local races…

    I mean when the Dem local county DA candidate, who has zero issue with name rec since he comes from one of the big local families, went down 12k to 20k, it pretty much means we’re screwed here. (With the straight ballot voting, it’s just this easy)

    In the end, almost everything I voted went Republican… Except for the State Senate.

    Oh well, back to sleep.

  8. Looks like the write-in margin is holding even vote-wise, but droppign %-wise as votes are counted.  I wish the write-in vote margin would grow a little more, the volume of challenegs will take its toll.  Of course I wish McAdams was leading Miller more than anything, but that doesn’t appear to be likely.

  9. A little while ago I said that Oberstar was safe. Now it looks like he’s screwed. Most of the outstanding votes appear to be in red areas. I can’t believe how many of Dems got caught napping. Him, Ortiz, Etheridge, probably Bean. The jokers who beat them will all serve exactly one term in the house (Walsh, Ellmers, and Farenthold are all complete idiots; I don’t know about Cravaack) but still this is pathetic.  

  10. Not only in the South, where situation was so toxic that even Bright and Taylor couldn’t survive (with very few exceptions – what remains of Democratic representation in the South are AA and Hispanic (not all) districts), but also in most of industrial Midwest (Pennsylvania included), and, partially North-East and West as well. Democrats in House now by far come from “liberal enclaves” like big SMA’s, and their number reflect ideology quite well: i wrote somewhere that there are about 180-190 relatively liberal (and moderate-liberal) districts in US – now Democrats have almost all of them and practically nothing more…

  11. Rep. Giffords leads by 2,500 with only four precincts yet to report. Somehow I doubt Kelly nets enough votes to win off those precincts, although a recount is entirely possible.

  12. Looks like the redistricting amendments passed the 60% threshold. Not quite sure how strong they are, but it looks like the FL GOP will lose its ability to gerrymander the Democrats into oblivion. Maybe if we do well enough at the top of the ticket in 2012, we might even see Dems retake a state leg chamber for the first time in ages!

    National Democrats need to make it a priority to pass fair redistricting amendments in every major non-blue state possible, given that most of them will be controlled by the GOP. They need to pour money into these battles the way they did in Florida. If they could get those passed in Ohio, Pennsylvania, etc. that could seriously mitigate the damage the GOP will do to the Dems in gerrymandering.

  13. Some of you might have heard about the Capistrano Unified School District story, where the incumbent “reform” trustees were using school funds to make lavish renovations at the cost of teacher layoffs. Well, 200/247 precincts remaining, two of those incumbents, Ken Maddox and Mike Weinstein are out, and one other CUSD incumbent was also defeated. There was a young, 19 year old kid named Saam Alikhani. He lost to the incumbent, Anna Bryson.

    In Huntington Beach, we have our FIRST openly gay elected official. Joe Shaw is 4th in the Huntington Beach city council (out of 4 picks), and there’s a grand total of 20 candidates running. Congrats Joe!

    In Fullerton, Dem Doug Chafee surprisingly won one of the Fullerton City Council seats and the GOP probably split the vote 3 or 4 times.

  14. No calls yet, but Kelly and McClung are well outside of the recall threshold (500 votes), and there aren’t enough precinct left to make it up.

    What a whirlwind. I’m glad that Southern Arizona will continue to be an oasis for sanity, but if Repubs had won slightly more qualified candidates in either race then Grijalva and Giffords would probably be gone.

  15. It’s time for drumroll please GOP Underperformances Watch!

    CA-02: Wally Herger’s only winning 56-44, but with 18% of the vote left.

    CA-03: with 86% in, Lungren’s winning 50-43. basically the same as in 2008. his opponent this time is stronger, sure, but it’s 2010, not 2008. In a better environment and with a less gerrymandered district, this clown is gone.

    CA-26: Ok, so lots of the vote left to count, but Dreier’s only ahead 56-35. He never faces serious challenges yet has trouble breaking 55%. Another possible casualty of a less-gerrymandered map.

    CA-44: Calvert was famously almost upset in 2008 and even this year looks like he won’t be winning by smashing margins. Restriction of his district to Riverside Co. could be fatal in 2012.

    CA-50: 57%? Is that the best you can do, Brian? Come on.

    MI-11: McCotter failed to break 60%. Reps control redistricting but have already maximized their advantages with the current map.

    NJ-07: Another below-60%er whose district is already gerrymandered.

    OH-02: Jean Schmidt is no surprise since she’s one of the most notorious underperformers out there. The GOP redistricting trifecta will be hard pressed to make her safer without endangering Chabot.

    SC-02: This time Rob Miller was better funded, but there’s no excuse for a Republican only winning 54-44 here. Joe Wilson, you lie fail!

    VA-07: What’s this? The #2 Republican can’t break 60% against Some Dude in a Republican district which doesn’t even reach into NoVA? Fail!

  16. Rasmussen and its subsidiary Pulse were biased on average about 70-75% toward Republican (in terms of distorting final proportion of the vote)…just in the last three weeks of polling.

  17. Earlier in the night she was down big against Steve Cooley. According to the CA SoS she’s only down 46.5-45.1 with 58% reporting.

    This is one race I really want the Democrat to win. Cooley wants to fight for Prop 8 in court, so I think he’s a scumbag.

  18. Many votes are still to be counted, but the State Senate is currently at 16D-14R and the State House is a 30-30 tie.

  19. When did they call Labrador the winner?  I must say, having a GOP Hispanic win in this seat…weird.  I wonder how many new GOP Hispanics got elected in this cycle?

  20. Source: NYT

    31D needed for Democratic control, 29D called

    32R needed for Democratic control, 30R called

    SD07 (D-inc): 49D-51R, 98% reporting

    SD37 (D-inc): 50D-50R, 81% reporting (D lead <1%)

    SD60 (D-inc): 50D-50R, 99% reporting (D lead <1%)  

  21. And our last chance of making a true upset hold. Republicans always had a vulnerable incumbent who looked like they were going down in ’06 or ’08, but pulled through. This year, though, the GOP nearly ran the table on the tossups, and Giffords, Owens, and Kissell look like the only ones on the frontline to have made it through. And all that really can be said about that is…fuuuuuuuck.

  22. the major counties that have yet to report have been giving Maes single digits so far. He could still end up below 10%. wouldn’t that be hilarious if the GOP had a great night but wasn’t even considered a major party in an important swing state?

  23. He broke 50% and won 50.2%-44.6%.  None of the Above got 2.2% and Scott Asjian got 0.8%.

    Reid won Washoe County 49.9%-44.9% (I guess Ralston stating how Dems felt confident Angle was losing her base in Washoe wasn’t blowing smoke).

    Reid won Mineral County (small) 44.9%(855 votes) – 43.2% (822 votes).

    Reid won Clark County 54.4%-41.3%.

    I’ll bet atdleft is living it up right now.

  24. Buck keeps holding on to a narrow lead as votes trickle in, but I’m not sure where his votes are coming from. It seems like most of the counties have totally counted, and those that haven’t are Bennett areas.

    Also, it seems significant Dem areas have seemed to have stopped counting as well. No updates for Denver for ages, as well as a couple suburban counties where Bennett has a 5% lead. Still 40% of Boulder.

  25. Foley leading by about 11,000 votes but this does not include any votes from Bridgeport. FWIW, in 2004 Kerry won Bridgeport by about 16,000 votes. (Obama won by more than 27,000 but that’s not a good comparison IMO.)

  26. being elected to office requires lots of things. Time, effort, money. But what it doesn’t require is actually having any qualifications to be in the office you’re running for. That’s why Chris Dudley has a 17,000 vote lead in Oregon, with 35% of Multnomah outstanding but also 40% of Clackamas, 18% of Deschutes, and 7% of Jackson. Reach for the stars, boys and girls, and don’t let some stupid little thing like competency stop you!  

  27. Denver is now reporting at 93%, when it was at 60% an hour ago, and Bennet still trails by 3500 votes.

    It looks like all that remains is Chaffee County, where Bennet should pick up about 1000 votes… and then Boulder is just at 75% and Denver at 93%. Simple county extrapolation suggests Bennet should win, but I’ve been thinking that for a while and he’s still trailing.

  28. While we’re waiting for the next drop, I noticed that Prop 19 is running less than 1% ahead of the state (and failing in absolute numbers) in Humboldt and Mendocino.  I had heard that the growers were worried about the impact of legalization on their profit margins and decided to vote against it.  Looks like that’s what happened.

    I’ll toot my own horn a bit on Prop 21 – I was a minority of one predicting doom on this, and I don’t know why everyone thought a little advertising would gloss over the dreaded “car tax” label.

  29. 89% In

    Kamala Harris

    3,035,482

    Percentage: 46.0%

    Steve Cooley

    3,003,412

    Percentage: 45.5%

    —————————-

    98% In

    David Harmer

    Votes: 81,514

    Percentage: 47.5%

    Jerry McNerney

    Votes: 81,491

    Percentage: 47.4%

    http://www.sfgate.com/election

    SF Chronicle seems to be on top, updating the results.  About to go ZZZ but will stay on to update or someone can take this and run with it.  We need Jerry – at least someone I can say – hey third way blue dogs – captrade and hcr are winning strategies

  30. 0230PDT Harris lead = 32070

    Imperial 15771 in / 78.5%  = 4319 out @ +2.7% = +117

    Kern 108663 in / 93.2% = 7928 out @ 34.6% = 2743

    Los Angeles 1786290 in / 92.8% = 138591 out @ +14.3% = +19819

    Monterey 50732 in / 64.5% = 27922 out @ +15.2% = +4244

    Riverside 233394 in / 60.5% = 152381 out @ 20.7% = 31543

    San Bernardino 181218 in / 35.0% = 336548 out @ 16.8% = 56540

    Santa Clara 303157 in / 72.1% = 117310 out @ +16.9% = +19825

    Sonoma 134665 in / 86.4%  = 21197 out @ +23.5% = +4981

    Ventura 26872 in / 75.2% = 8862 out @ +0.5% = +44

    Yolo 12023 in / 43.4% = 15680 out @ +6.9% = +1082

    Current +32070 + Projected 40714 = Harris 8644

  31. He leads by 5000 votes… with Denver now fully reporting.

    All that remains is Chaffee County and 25% of Boulder. Not sure how Buck could regain the lead at this point.

  32. I am made of much stronger stuff than that.  Besides, my ancestors were tough enough to make it through slavery and Jim Crow in MS,LA and VA so I think that I can make it through 2 years of the 112th Congress.  

    Just wait till we see the fun things that they are going to cut.

  33. Harris seems to have Cooley wrapped up, which is pretty amazing as he even got the LA Times endorsement.

    McNerney down by 23 votes, but only Santa Clara precints left, where he will pick up 75+ votes if the remaining 14% acts like the counted 86%.

    The budget initiative passes which is just good for everyone.

    Only loss, unles you are a pothead, is the bizarro low turnout Costa seat.

    Whitman and Fiorina get stomped as expected… Meg spends $150,000,000 to lose by 15 points!

    With Bennet seemingly safe now, the west comes out pretty okay. (Titus will be back after redistricting, Griffith looks like she survives, Raul Boycott survives too tho he gets the award for worst election tactic.)

  34. The Inland Empire bomb may have started to drop, and Harris needs a fizzle to hold on to her slim lead. Riverside moved for the first time in five hours and the numbers against here are softening slightly (1.5%), enough to drop the projected final margin to an even Cooley +10,000.

  35. according to the exit polls.  Can you imagine if Gallup and Rasmussen were right?  Dick Morris and Mark would have gotten their 90-100 seats.

  36. http://www.courant.com/news/po

    Malloy won Bridgeport by about 13,000 votes; I’m not clear on whether that’s already included in the narrow Foley lead or whether it invalidates it. However, the tone of this article suggests Foley as the likely victor. Needless to say I’m confused.

    Also, the article says the Republicans plan to challenge Bridgeport votes cast after the polls closed in most of CT. Due to a ballot shortage polls closed in Bridgeport two hours late, and the late votes will be considered provisional ballots. Of course, the natural Republican aversion to Democrats (in this case, minorities–Bridgeport isn’t very white) voting is manifesting itself.

  37. this night is over. Thank god Boxer and Brown pulled away with double digit leads. And McNerney is holding on, recount but I think he’ll squeak by. This wasn’t just a wave, this was a massacre.

  38. Burlington Free Press reporting that it’s likely neither candidate will finish at 50%, meaning the legislature will choose in January. Assuming Shumlin gets more votes, I can only assume the Democratic legislature will have no reason not to choose him. Perhaps someone who knows Vermont can verify this.

  39. The results for statewide races in South Carolina turned out lousy.  In 2006, Dems won Superintendent of Education and almost won Lt. Gov.  Now we spent all last night getting teased by the SC-Gov results, with Sheheen ahead a couple of times.  In the end Haley won, but by a much smaller margin than polls suggested.  If only the national party had invested more in this race.  UNfortunately, the statewide races turned out a lot worse.  The State dem party was touting their candidates, but they all lost by 10% or more.  Even Superintendent of Education.    

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