Liveblog Thread #6

1:57: In other news, it looks like the GOP flipped at least 15 state legislative chambers.

1:54: TX-23 called for Quico Canseco (R).

1:50: NY-01 called for Tim Bishop.

1:49: Good news: NM-01 called for Dem Martin Heinrich. Also, it looks like the outstanding precincts in MI-09 are Dem-friendly.

1:48: The AP has called HI-Gov for Neil Abercrombie, in what looks like a big, 20-point win. Hopefully this bodes well for Colleen Hanabusa’s hopes in HI-01.

1:45: Well, well, well. It wouldn’t be an election night without some muffed numbers, now would it? The AP has un-called GA-02, and apparently Rep. Sanford Bishop is up by about 4,500 votes.

1:33: More:

51-45 tipton in CO-03, 76%; 50-46 Matheson in UT-02, 55%; 49-46 Grijalva, AZ-07, 68%; 49-47 Giffords, AZ-08, 59%; Heck by 1800 votes in NV-03, 25% in; ID-01, Minnick down 42-51, 24%; 51-46 Schrader, 82%, OR-05

1:30: Outstanding house races:

NY-01: 51-49 Bishop, 86%; NY-25: 51-49 Maffei, 94%; VA-11: Connolly by 500, 99%; Chandler by 600 in ky-06, 99%; 50-47 Peters in MI-09, 71%; Bean down 49-48 IL-08, 98%; Carnahan up 49-47 in MO-03, 99%; 48-47 Oberstar in MN-08, 45%; Farenthold by 800 votes in TX-27, 100%; 50-44 Quico in TX-23, 89%; 51.5-48.5 Heinrich in NM-01, 95%

1:25: Some early nums from Alaska: Write-ins 40, Miller 34, McAdams 25, with 26% reporting.

1:22: And in CA-18, Dennis Cardoza (D) defeats Mike Berryhill.

1:21: At least in WA-01, Jay Inslee hangs on.

1:19: In AZ-05, David Schweikert defeats Rep. Harry Mitchell.

1:12: Doug Hoffman’s cat fud from beyond the grave saves Bill Owens, who defeats Matt Doheney in NY-23.

1:08: Michael Bennet back on top in CO-Sen, 48-47 with 72% in. Heard some reports that the AP muffed the numbers out of Dem-friendly Boulder.

1:02: Bitter news, herb lovers: California’s Prop 19 won’t pass. No ganja break here – though as Ben said, when marijuana is decriminalized, only decriminals will have marijuana.

1:00am: Kristi Noem beats Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in SD-AL, which means James dreamed the future. WI-03 called for Ron Kind. NY-04 called for Carolyn McCarthy.

12:56am: Peter DeFazio (D) wins in OR-04.

12:49am: The Devil Wears Prada. Alternately, Ken Buck is now leading by 3% in Colorado. Additionally, Bobby Bright loses to Martha Roby (R) in AL-02.

12:44am: Suzan DelBene concedes to Dave Reichert in WA-08. Dems at two pickups for the night; Seals fail; Ami Bera trailing 43-49 to Dan Lungren (R) in CA-03.

12:42am: Harry Reid wins. Nuff said.

12:40am: Mike Oliverio (D) probably thought he’d get a free pass to Congress after beating Alan Mollohan, but nope, he loses to David McKinley in WV-01.

12:38am: Not a good night for the Carnahans; Russ is hanging on by 500 votes in MO-03 with 97% reporting.

12:36am: Maurice Hinchey (D) survives in NY-22, while across the country, Jaime Herrera (R) takes Brian Baird’s open WA-03 for the Rs.

12:35am: Nathan Deal (R) defeats Roy Barnes for GA-Gov.

12:33am: In a surprise, Michael McMahon loses to Mike Grimm in NY-13.

12:33am: Brock Landers er…Ben Quayle eats potatoe. And defeats Jon Hulburd for AZ-03.

12:32am: John Dingell declared the winner in MI-15.

Ow.

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

341 thoughts on “Liveblog Thread #6”

  8. I was just crunching the numbers and he failed to overturn the amount of precincts that he came close to losing in 2008 to offset less turnout in Montgomery.

  10. Well, here it goes…….all kudos and due credit to atdleft, who looks like he was right about everything, and also to Jon Ralston, who as it turns out, does know a thing or two about Nevada!

    Looks like the drama is now in Colorado, Washington, and Alaska.

  14. Off the top of my head, Arcuri, Adler, McMahon, Nye, and many of the new southern Blue Dogs who voted against HCR look like they are going down. Kissell might be one of the few exceptions. This is why it’s better just to vote for strong legislation IMO, voters are going to decide the election based on the economy. It’s better to best utilize your time in Congress to enact the best legislation, as the balance of the House is always going to change regardless of specific votes.

  16. MI-7 and MI-1 are officially lost for the Democrats.  Birther Walberg won 50/45% (I was almost SURE we were going to hold that one), and MI-1 was 52/41 for Tea Party Benishek.

    We still MIGHT just hold MI-9, but it’s slow coming in.  Dale Kildee in heavily Democratic MI-5 also faced a surprising challenge winning only 52% of the vote.  And Dingell in MI-15 “only” won by 10 points.

    The Republican SoS and AG races are lost to Dems, the former by only 5% points, though, in a state were we’re talking 20%+ sweeps for other state and congressional races.

    Oh, in the guv race, Bernero was able to eke out a win in his home county, which is kind of a moral victory for me since I live there.

    We lost both Supreme Court races, an incumbent and a newcomer.  We lost every election for state education board, and the university boards.

    This wasn’t unexpected, but it still doesn’t make any logical sense.

  19. Foley leads by 40,000 with 67% in:

    Bridgeport, Danbury, East Hartford, Fairfield, Farmington, Hamden, Meriden, Norwalk, Shelton, South Windsor, Trumbull, Stamford, and Westport all have not one vote in.

    New Britain 65% in, Malloy leads by 3,000; New Haven 26% in, Malloy by 7,000 of 9,000 cast; West Hartford 30% in, Malloy up by 1,500.

    These are basically all the big cities and some major suburbs.

    Malloy might be able to get 40,000 votes out of just Hartford, New Haven, and Bridgeport. Danbury will probably go to Foley, with Fairfield, South Windsor, Farmington and Trumbull following. Hamden will give 3,000ish to Malloy. I don’t know about Norwalk, but Westport, Shelton, and Stamford are the probably key.

    Himes getting the call earlier is very telling if Stamford gave a good Dem turnout and Westport gave a good liberal vote.  

  20. I’m very surprised he lost! I guess the only way for a Democrat to win that seat is if he’s running against a complete laughingstock. Staten Island is still a bunch of Republicans, evidently.

  22. but courtesy of the Providence Journal I have the results for my precinct! Most Democrats won there with somewhere between 65-85% of the vote, but for AG, Dem Peter Kilmartin only beat Moderate Chris Little 46-31, with Republican Erik Wallin way back at 17%. Also, for SoS Republican Catherine Taylor won 57-43, even though Dem A. Ralph Mollis won statewide!

  26. If Wisconsin’s Assembly flips to the Republicans, you may be able to blame 160 or so Democrats in western Wisconsin.  In the district I live in that covers the south half of Eau Claire (93rd Assembly), the incumbent Democrat, Jeff Smith, lost to Republican Warren Petryk by 71 votes out of 22,067 cast.  And in the district that covers the north half of Eau Claire (68th Assembly), the incumbent Democrat, Kristen Dexter, lost to Republican Kathy Bernier by 87 votes out of 21,429 cast.

  32. I suspect that should clinch it for Murray.  No real surprises in WA state…WA-2 is too close to call, but that was exepected. WA-3 was competitive, but Herrera held the lead all the way. Likewise in WA-8, solid if unspectacular win for Reichert. WA-6/WA-9 the D incumbents numbers are down, but still solid wins.

  34. There is still a decent chunk of votes left in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach – heavily Democratic areas. Sink needs to make up 60,000 votes though. Please let her come back !

  35. I’d take any of the close ones over him, but it looks like he is the one we get.  In a way, it should be the happiest result for the Republicans… he’s the one east of the Pacific Coast to win.  Even in losing one Team Red scores a win.

  36. Currently, the call is 26D-23R, so we need 5 to make it to 31, and they need 9 to make it to 32. The GOP can count six more chickens and we can count two.

    So we’re at 28-29. So far, the GOP has felled Aubertine and Foley, and we’ve unseated the longest-serving senator, Padavan, and picked up Morahan’s empty seat. So here are the five seats that matter:

    SD07 (D): 47D-53R, 27% reporting, incumbent

    SD37 (D): 50D-50R, 79% reporting, incumbent, we lead

    SD40 (R): 48D-52R, 90% reporting

    SD58 (D): 42D-40R, 86% reporting

    SD60 (D): 49D-51R, 97% reporting, incumbent

    Can we pull this off?

  37. All of a sudden Buck shot ahead and it didn’t appear if any GOP county reported heavily.  They added a boatload of votes for Buck in Boulder County.  It is definitely an error.  Bennet was leading handily in Boulder prior to the update and it is a very Democratic county.

  39. According to Politico, Buck leads by 9,000 votes in Boulder County with 87%. Typo, or an odd change of heart in the San Francisco of the Rockies?

  42. Ciro, Ciro, Ciro Rodriguez.

    After all the primaries, all the elections, I never want to hear his name again.

    (unless he somehow comes back, then I’ll love him)

  43. Yes, Ellsworth took a pretty crushing loss in Indiana. But there’s two interesting little tidbits. First, less importantly, as IndianaProgressive pointed out some time ago, Ellsworth actually won Marion County (Indianapolis) pretty convincingly, which is somewhat unusual for statewide Dem campaigns that turn into a trainwreck.

    The bigger news is that Ellsworth appears to have lost Vanderburgh County (Evansville and environs). For those that don’t know, Ellsworth was the very popular two-term Sheriff for Vanderburgh before running for Congress in 2006; it’s basically his home base. To lose it isn’t just unfortunate, it’s embarrassing.  

  44. If what I have that passes for models hold up, Giffords should win AZ-08 2-5, Grijalva should win AZ-07 by 0-4, and Schweikert should win AZ-05 by 7-10. Giffords should hang on, and Mitchell is done, but the big question for Grijalva is how badly he gets pasted in Yuma County. Generally, Democrats have actually been gaining a couple of percentage points over their early voting totals in AZ. As long as that doesn’t go the other way, I think he hangs on. Also, he’s outperforming his baselines in Avondale/Maricopa County pretty well.  

  45.    Because the new House would not give a shit if I were.  No unemployment extensions of course.  Can the lame duck Congress extend it say…for years?

  46.    Because the new House would not give a shit if I were.  No unemployment extensions of course.  Can the lame duck Congress extend it say…for years?

  50. Stephanie Herseth joins hubbie Max Sandlin in involuntary retirement from office.  On the upside, she might be able to spend more time with her kid and less time on jetliners.

  55. Are ousted…

    It’s a sad state in our political system that antigay fear-mongering can turn out so many voters. And, as a gay man, it’s honestly frightening.  

  58. He is maintaing Mike Hatch’s margin (2006 Gov nominee) in Hennepin County (Minneapolis, most populous county), slightly improving in Ramsey (St. Paul, second most populous), doing better in Washington and Dakota which are of the three big suburban counties, and equal in the other big three suburban county.

    My one big worry is that Dayton did not do as well as he should have in Greater MN.  St. Louis County is only 22% in and it is going for Dayton by 62%, which is the one thing that makes me think he will pull it out.  22% means Duluth hasn’t reported yet as they report in one big bulk and make up roughly 42% of the district and are more DFL leaning than the county as a whole.  This county is Dayton vote-rich.

    And Dayton’s Lt Gov choice is the state senator for Duluth so that’s going to be a bonus.

  59. were the result of Republican redistricting rearing its ugly head.  Dems had no business holding OH-16, OH-18 and PA-10, for example.

  60. Well this is one call I truly don’t understand.  Foley’s lead is over 30,000 or ~4.5% lead.  Is the outstanding vote truly that Democrat friendly? Seems like a very odd call to me.

  63. With 23% in, Boxer’s up .3% over Fiorina. The early sample in LA County looks friendly to Fiorina, though it probably doesn’t hold if the exit polls hold water.

  64. Take a look at the county map for NY-Gov. I know Paladino was from Buffalo, but holy crap, he won Erie County 58-39! Niagara was 65-32! (Paladino did shit out in Rochester, losing Monroe 62-35. Gillibrand lost Niagara too.

    Higgins may be lucky to have won a decent victory in that part of the state.

    If New York City, Long Island, and Westchester want to secede from the upstate crazy but not form another state, Connecticut will gladly merge.

  65. All the news organizations have called it, but it looks quite close to me. For instance, both Republicans are hitting the required 60% number in Orange County, and Fiorina almost has LA within single digits. She’s essentially tied with Boxer as of now.

    Are the remaining ballots supposed to be uniformly more Democratic or something? – because otherwise I’m not seeing what they’re seeing.

  67. I know it’s a swingish district, but how can a veteran Hispanic member in a Hispanic majority district lose to someone who looks like he should have his own two-hour special on “To Catch a Predator”?

  68. ME-Gov, CT-Gov, FL-Gov, IL-Gov, OR-Gov, AZ-08, and MI-09 are looking really close. Pretty sure Rep. Oberstar is done in MN-08, even though Dayton looks to be winning his district handily; wrong profile, should have retired, I think.

  70. 29D, 29R, 4 in the air, three of which we lead. We need 2 more, they need three more.

    We lead two by about 200 votes, but one of those is 99% reporting, the other we lead by 1 vote, with 42% reporting.

    Mathematically, we have about a 64% chance of keeping the state senate.

  78. St. Louis County is only 22% in, and makes up 30% of the district.  THis county will go heavily for Obestar, more so than any in the district and it makes up more population than any other in the district.

    As much as I head nodded to Oberstar’s votes, I did think he as voting a bit too much in our favor considering his past record.  I was surprised he was so in our favor this Congress.

  87. Multnomah County is only 55% in, and it’s breaking better than 2:1 for Kitzhaber. It also happens to be – surprise! – the most populous county in the state.

    I’m expecting Kitzhaber to erase Dudley’s lead once Multnomah dumps its votes into the total, probably win by about a point or two. (Democratic votes in Lane County will probably cancel out Republican votes in Marion and Linn.) Much closer than I expected.

  88. Not major news, but Linda Greenstein won SD-14 in central Jersey from the Republicans in a special election.  At least a minor rebuke to King Christie.

    And, after some shaky moments, Pallone and Holt came through.  Adler is no great loss.

    As for my neigboring state of PA, all I can say is, for shame.

  89. I see the balance of power hanging by a thread. right now I can confidently say that there are 33 wins for Republicans, 32 wins for the DFL, 1-LEAN DFL (District 4) and one toss-up (District 40) Oi vey.

  90. Too early for a formal call, and I don’t like what’s happening in Idaho and Utah at all. But it looks like we have some important clutch holds in swing districts, which is positive.

  92. Reps have total control in PA and OH.  But they had that after 2000 as well.  They’re each losing at least a seat and have five new Repubs in their delegation.  Good luck keeping them all safe without stretching themselves too thin.

    Michigan will be more of a problem.  Odds are Dingel, and maybe Kildee, will retire.

  93. for the fact that Tony Avella won, surprisingly, in SD-11 in Queens. I volunteered for him today and was ecstatic that he actually won.

    Besides that, though, this was pretty cataclysmic. Give Pulse Opinion Strategies a whole shit load of credit.

    Anyway, I need to get to work at 2 AM. Let’s hope Hanabusa can pull through.

  95. Why must they count so slowly? There’s a lot of Denver still out, so I have a hard time seeing Buck winning. But either way, I’ll find out in the morning…..2:15 is late enough.

  97. 1. Most of these gains are unsustainable for Republicans.

    2. The ConDems have been almost completely destroyed.

  102. I mean, come on! Even Virg won Lansing in Michigan. Also interesting to see the Democratic statewide nominees winning Salt Lake County, though that could change if late results aren’t good for Dems.

    How is it that Quinn survived even though Democrats outside of metro Chicago were completely demolished (except for Costello)? He and Harry Reid have to go down as the biggest upsets of the night, no, except for maybe Rick Boucher losing.

    Overall, a shitty night, especially in Michigan. Who would’ve though just two years ago Obama almost dropped McCain below 40% in that state! Feels good to know that Pete Hoekstra probably is feeling a little like an ass right now, knowing that if he’d just stayed in Congress he might be chairing Intelligence next January.

    MI-06 (home), MI-02 (College)  

  107. One – My dream with Martha Roby winning was correct. Does that mean I’m going to sleep with her now? I’m worried! Really worried! (for those of you late and confused, I had a dream last night where I slept with “Congresswoman Roby”, and it was this big national scandal. Yyyeeaahhhhh…)

    Two – I have followed politics my whole life. My grandfather was a state representative in Pennsylvania. I feel like I’ve lost my interest in politics tonight. Like everything I’ve advocated for just got punched in the stomach.  

  108. I underestimated how well Kelly would do in the suburbs, but it looks like he’s cranked out about as much of that vote as he can. Looks like AZ-08 will be a 1-3% Giffords win, and I’m leaning towards a 49-47 finish.

    Meanwhile, unless I’m dead wrong on where the rest of the Pima County votes are, McClung is done, as she needs to win about 2/3rds of the outstanding vote. Yuma came out strong for her but it needed to put her in the lead going into the rest of the Westside Tucson and I think the Tohono O’Odham Reservation. I’m projecting a 2-3% Grijalva win.

    Incidentally, Democrats got boned with state legislature races and Repubs will probably have veto-proof majorities (not that they’ll need them). We also didn’t win a single statewide race, and Democratic AG nominee Felecia Rotellini looks like she’s heading for a heartbreaking 47-52 loss. Can’t have nice things.

  109. except for Webster who beat Grayson FL-08.

    Sfgate.com has  put a check mark next to Cooley for California Attorney General. Harris is terrible. I am not sorry she lost.  

  110. ugh, what the hell is wrong with Maine. LePage is leading 38-37 and his lead is growing.

    First the gay marriage thing in 2009, now this. I am really not a fan of this state.

  113. Wait until Chris Matthews looks at these exit polls:

    61% of voters today graduated from college, 86% at least some college

    41% make more than $100,000

    They hate the tea party, still like Obama, and liberals turned out in equal proportion to conservatives.

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