Liveblog Thread #5

12:30am: New party…over here.

12:27am: Bob Dold! (R) wins IL-10.

12:25am: David Rivera (R) wins FL-25.

12:21am: Senator Mark Kirk. Get used to it. (Also get used to Rep. Sean Duffy while you’re at it.)

12:19am: About GA-02… that was called for Mike Keown (R), but it may have to be un-called. Sanford Bishop actually has a very small lead now.

12:18am: Two gubernatorial calls for the GOP, both pickups. John Kasich has apparently won in Ohio, and Susana Martinez wins in New Mexico. Also, two House pickups in Arkansas (no surprises though): Rick Crawford in AR-01 and Tim Griffin in AR-02.

12:12am: Assorted bad news in the House, though. Chris Gibson is the victor in NY-20, beating Scott Murphy. Steve Chabot is back for more; he finally dispatched Steve Driehaus in OH-01. Tim Walberg is also back, beating Mark Schauer in MI-07. Finally, rogue dentist Paul Gosar defeats Anne Kirkpatrick in AZ-01. Dem holds are called in WA-06 (Norm Dicks) and MI-05 (Dale Kildee) though.

12:10am: Sorry about the clogged server, folks. The big news: CNN calls “the Dems hold the Senate.” I guess their call in California is enough to feel confident that nothing weird else might happen (at least nothing that doesn’t involve Joe Lieberman). Plus, Patty Murray is up (51-49) but she’s actually underperforming both Harry Reid and Michael Bennet, at least for the time being.

12:03am: His name is Governor Jerry Brown! His aura smiles and never frowns! (He will probably not be president.) CA-Gov has been called, for Moonbeam 2.0.

11:57pm: Per a DGA press release, it sounds like they’re treating Linc Chafee as the winner. That’s good enough for us.

11:55pm: Not the one, and not having fun: John Hall loses to Nan Hayworth (R) in NY-19.

11:54pm: Another Dem hold: MN-07 for Collin Peterson.

11:52pm: Calls in California and Pennsylvania for Barbara Boxer and Pat Toomey.

11:51pm: A few Dem holds: Mark Critz wins PA-12, while the AP calls CT-05 for Chris Murphy. Ben Lujan also wins NM-03.

11:48pm: Richard Hanna defeats NY-24 Dem incumbent Mike Arcuri. Charlie Bass (R) wins NH-02, and David Wu (D) holds OR-01.

11:44pm: Another Dem incumbent on the critical list is WI-03’s Ron Kind, who’s only leading Dan Kapanke by 49-48 with 58% in.

11:42pm: Two more calls: In MO-04, Vicki Hartzler defeats longtime Dem Rep. Ike Skelton. In MN-01, Dem Rep. Tim Walz wins.

11:40pm: Farewell to Handsome Harry Teague. Say hello again to Republican Steve Pearce in NM-02.

11:37pm: Well, this is a bit of a surprise, given how two-bit her campaign was… Renee Ellmers knocks off Dem Rep. Bobby Etheridge in NC-02.

11:34pm: Bill Keating holds onto MA-10 for Team Blue.

11:32pm: Guh? Harry Reid is leading by 53-43 with 11% reporting?

11:31pm: Legendary Dem Rep. Gene Taylor gets greased in MS-04. Say hello to GOP Rep-elect Steve Palazzo.

11:29pm: Bruce Braley lives to continue the fight in IA-01.

Wow, utter devastation!

RESULTS: CNN | Politico

204 thoughts on “Liveblog Thread #5”

  9. What a bloodbath. :/ I still wanted to believe the predictions from last week which said the good guys could still hold the house, but anything that wasn’t nailed down in Penn, Ohio & Florida got blown away.

    Scott in Florida, Periello, sestak, alexi, strickland losing breaks my heart. Bizarrely Quinn seems to look like he’s gonna win.

    At least the worst of the worst of the blue dogs lost.  

  10.    Are going to start a battle to the death in January.  Democrats might have 200 seats in the House and 51-53 seats in the Senate.  That is not going to be pretty.

  11. for handling the traffic tonight. I believe this is the first election night I’ve been here that the server hasn’t been down continuously. Why did it have to be a night of apocalyptic bad news, though?

  12. Fucking cancers.  At least maybe the Democrats won’t waste a shitload of money on people like Marshall and Childers in the future.

  16. It looks like Ron Kind in WI-3 is ahead and hanging in there.

    Also, with very preliminary numbers, both Gabrielle Giffords and Raul Grijalva are ahead now.

    Still, things aren’t good. I’ve finished half a bottle of crabapple wine and am probably going to keep going.

  17. Hard to believe that we will have less seats in the House now than before 2006. And unfortunately we have no chance of even making the map less gerrymandered now.

  18. Shumlin opens a 3,000 vote lead with 55% in, and only have of Chittenden County (Burlington) in yet. Could be a pickup.

    With the Indy in Maine, Chaffee in RI, MA staying blue, and even Himes holding on in CT-04, New England is still blue, except for those pesky New Hampshirites.

    If only Hartford, New Haven, and Bridgeport put Malloy over the top.

  21. The Dems lost my open state house district by a convincing margin. Even if Dennie Oxley hadn’t torpedoed his own career and was still in office, I suspect he would have lost tonight.

    More surprising is State Senate-47 (also my district) where longtime St. Sen. Richard Young barely held off (51-49) a Republican challenger that I’d heard nothing about beyond a “meet the candidate” profile in the local paper. Thank goodness for small miracles.

    Last I checked the SoS hasn’t updated with county-level results, but so far it looks like utter devastation in Southern Indiana. We’ve lost all over the place.  

  25.    Gerry Connolly hangs on with a 500 vote leads and all precincts counted.  If the Republicans had nominated Pat Herrity instead of Keith Fimian, Connolly would be long gone.

  26. Dems had a 68-52 edge in the State House and a 30-20 edge in the State Senate.  By my count, the both flipped exactly around (52-68 and 20-30).  Lots of close races, so that is preliminary.  But now, Republicans control redistricting in NC since there is no Gov veto allowed.

  36. Larsen (WA-02) looks to be in trouble. Heck looks a bit far behind. He needed to have done better in Clark Co, though I don’t know if the city of Vancouver has reported much yet. Murray will be OK, I think she might stretch it out to 5.

    Some slowness in reporting OR-05, but Schrader looks OK so far. Wu and DeFazio are more than fine.

    Kitz and Dudley look like a jump ball right, but much of Multnomah (Portland) almost always reports late. So far, Kitz is leading Dudley in Multnomah like 3:1.

  43. …managing expectations really works.

    While I had butterflies all day, I expected we’d lose the House, and the vulnerable seats were too many to fret very many particular ones.  Losing Perriello hurt for awhile, but even there it was expected.  Connolly apparently surviving is key for my spirits, since that’s a district Republicans should NEVER win at this stage of NoVA’s political evolution.  There might be a recount, but a 500-vote margin is actually almost impossible to reverse.

    Harry Reid hanging on also is key for me.  That’s the one race I elevated all others in my personal importance.

    I prepared in total for Senate losses of up to 8, hoping we’d keep it down to 6.  If Bennet hangs on and so does Murray, then we’re set at “just” 6.

    The next 2 years will be OK.  The GOP can’t do much from the House alone.  They’re caught between a rock and a hard place, with uncompromising teabaggers on one side and an American electorate that demands mutual compromise, not an Obama surrender, on the other.  That we hold the Senate is more important than anyone has openly acknowledged, people.

  44. … will be in the House?

    NBC is projecting 240+ Republicans, a gain of over +60.

    I totaled up the races that weren’t called and got to +55, but I might be suffering from wishful thinking.

    What do others think?

  45. What’s everyone’s thought on Obama’s winning 2008 coalition?  Is that totally in peril at the moment?  What I’m just feeling anecdotally is that he’s bleeding white women, and has lost whatever percentage of white males he got on his side.  It really does seem to be a race thing, unless Dems simply didn’t show up at the polls.

  46. in California the propositions: Prop 19 is failing 44-57 (No Lincecum surge here), Prop 23 is failing with no leading by 20 points, and yes is leading by 11 points on Prop 25 (majority vote). Republican’s fail safe in redistricting (Prop 20) is leading easily, probably will pass.  

  47. Who could vote for Allen West?! This seat has just got to be a Democratic pickup next cycle. West is no Clay Shaw, and Democrats need to make that clear next time.

  48. By the way, tweeps, none of the above is only getting 2 percent. And Reid over 50 is incredible. Nye County not in but not enough votes.

    2 minutes ago via TweetDeck  

  50. Has anyone else been taking a look and figuring out whether Bennet can keep the lead?

    On the plus side, there’s more from Denver and Pueblo counties, and San Miguel county hasn’t reported at all yet. On the other hand, neither has El Paso County (Colorado Springs).

  54. Prop to change the name goes down in flames, 77-22. 300 years of history still means something to some people.

    Let’s welcome Lincoln Chafee back to government, too. I always liked him for some strange reason. Just seems like a decent guy.

  55. It looks like the GOP is going to take this back from where the seats are now.  Aubertine is losing, along with Foley and a couple of others.  It’s very close in all of these races with the margin only being a couple of percentage points.  But it looks like the NY GOP will control 1/3 of the redisticting process, which totally sucks.

  60. Looks like Ortiz is behind by around 1000 votes at this point.  Most of the remaining votes still out are in Cameron County (Brownsville); the question is if it will be enough to put Ortiz over the top.

    Ortiz’s son also lost his State House seat tonight as well.

  62. she’s winning Pierce and Snohomish Counties and has 62% in King. I actually think her margin is going to be decent – say 3-4%.

    Rossi can’t win without Pierce. I’m surprised, honestly, that Murray is ahead there.

  63. Obama’s old senate seat takes the place of Richard Burr’s seat, because no one has held that seat for more than 6 years since 1986, and no 1 party since 1998.  

  69. The results have stagnated at 80% reporting. Dayton is leading 47-40. I suspect his margin with increase as my ever-so-tardy 8th district counts it’s votes sometime around Thanksgiving. I am betting Dayton flirts with 50%, and I am 100% certain he will win based on where the votes have come in from. Dayton is leading in CLEARWATER COUNTY. It is a little piss ant county in NW Minnesota, but it is notable for being one of only 5 counties that voted against Amy Klobuchar in 2006. I have no explanation for this.

  72. Foley leads by 40,000 with 67% in:

    Bridgeport, Danbury, East Hartford, Fairfield, Farmington, Hamden, Meriden, Norwalk, Shelton, South Windsor, Trumbull, Stamford, and Westport all have not one vote in.

    New Britain 65% in, Malloy leads by 3,000; New Haven 26% in, Malloy by 7,000 of 9,000 cast; West Hartford 30% in, Malloy up by 1,500.

    These are basically all the big cities and some major suburbs.

    Malloy might be able to get 40,000 votes out of just Hartford, New Haven, and Bridgeport. Danbury will probably go to Foley, with Fairfield, South Windsor, Farmington and Trumbull following. Hamden will give 3,000ish to Malloy. I don’t know about Norwalk, but Westport, Shelton, and Stamford are the probably key.

    Himes getting the call earlier is very telling if Stamford gave a good Dem turnout and Westport gave a good liberal vote.  

  73. MI-7 and MI-1 are officially lost for the Democrats.  Birther Walberg won 50/45% (I was almost SURE we were going to hold that one), and MI-1 was 52/41 for Tea Party Benishek.

    We still MIGHT just hold MI-9, but it’s slow coming in.  Dale Kildee in heavily Democratic MI-5 also faced a surprising challenge winning only 52% of the vote.  And Dingell in MI-15 “only” won by 10 points.

    The Republican SoS and AG races are lost to Dems, the former by only 5% points, though, in a state were we’re talking 20%+ sweeps for other state and congressional races.

    Oh, in the guv race, Bernero was able to eke out a win in his home county, which is kind of a moral victory for me since I live there.

    We lost both Supreme Court races, an incumbent and a newcomer.  We lost every election for state education board, and the university boards.

    This wasn’t unexpected, but it still doesn’t make any logical sense.

  77. All of Nueces County (Corpus Christi) now in, Farenthold’s lead is up to around 1300 votes.

    Good news for Ortiz is that all of the remaining votes are in Cameron County (Brownsville), where he’s winning with 60%.  But with relatively low turnout there tonight apparently, there may not be enough votes left to put him over the top.

  79. Buck has a lead now, but it looks like most of the outstanding results are in suburban Denver, where Bennet has a lead… so what do people think?

    (Although, how the hell did Buck win Boulder Co?)

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