Liveblog Thread #1

7:37pm: Lots of data coming in fast now: most of all, OH-Sen has already been called (0% reporting). On the good side, check this out: Tom Perriello is leading, 50-48, with 7% in, in VA-05. Other stuff: NH-01 looks tight, with Frank Guinta leading 49-46 with 1% in. FL-08 doesn’t look tight: Daniel Webster leads 63-28 with 6% reporting. With 7% in, Morgan Griffith is leading in VA-09, 54-44.

7:32pm: While Kentucky’s looking OK, Indiana isn’t. In fact, Baron Hill isn’t performing any better than Trent Van Haaften (GOPers lead 54-41 in IN-08 with 23% in, 55-40 in IN-09 with 19% in). Joe Donnelly trails 56-38 in IN-02, but that’s without any of St. Joseph or LaPorte Cos. reporting (11% in). Even Andre Carson (IN-07) is up by only 8 in his pretty safe district.

7:30pm: As expected, things are moving toward Yarmuth in KY-03: he now leads 52-46 with 4.7% reporting. In KY-06, Barr leads 54-46 with 44% reporting.

7:25pm: Also some FL-Gov data. 0% is reporting, but that includes nearly 200,000 votes. (I knew Florida was a large state, but still…) Rick Scott leads Alex Sink 48-47. That’s without any Dem-favorable counties. (Unless you count Pinellas as one.)

7:22pm: Wow, FL-Sen data is coming in and it’s close for now: Marco Rubio leads only 42-40 over Charlie Crist (with Kendrick Meek at 17). Before you start getting excited, though, most of that is from Pinellas County, which is Crist’s home base.

7:20pm: One other very uneventful call: VT-Sen has been called for Patrick Leahy, also with 0% reporting.

7:15pm: I guess this just wasn’t Alvin Greene’s night. The race was just called for Jim DeMint. With 0% reporting. DeMint wins 0-0!

7:10pm: Looks like we have our first major calls of the night: Rand Paul wins KY-Sen, and Dan Coats wins IN-Sen.

7:08pm: We’ve got very wide divergence in the two races that are sort of the early-going bellwethers (IN-02, KY-06). In the 6th, Ben Chandler’s now up 56-44, with 18% reporting. No more news in KY-03. It’s 55-45 for Paul in KY-Sen, with 8.5% reporting.

7:06pm: IN-Sen is at 4.7% reporting, Coats up 55-40. Things don’t look so good in IN-09 with 6.6% in now: Todd Young leads 53-42. No new numbers in IN-02.

7:04pm: While we wait for more data to roll in, h/t to Paleo in the comments, for posting exit poll data for the Senate races. Blumenthal +8, Boxer +8, Kirk + 6, Johnson +5, Bennet +2, Murray +6, Toomey +4, Manchin +7, Reid even. (Before you get too excited let me just say one word: 2004.)

6:59pm: No, sorry, brain fart. Paul’s lead is 8 (54-46, with 2.1% reporting).

6:57pm: Who’d have thunk that IN-Sen would look closer than KY-Sen? Coats leads by 9, while Paul leads by 11.

6:54pm: Uh oh. We’re getting our first numbers in KY-03. Todd Lally’s actually in the lead: 53-46, with 1.4% reporting. (This, like many urban districts, may be one where Louisville proper reports later.) Ben Chandler’s still holding on in KY-06, though: 53-48 with 1.9% reporting.

6:53pm: Up to 2.4% reporting in IN-09. Todd Young leads Baron Hill 50-46.

6:51pm: Most of those IN-02 votes seem to be from Cass County (figured out by overlaying the Senate map). It’s pretty red (McCain 53/Obama 45).

6:45pm: All the way up to 10% reporting in IN-08. Larry Buchson leads Trent Van Haaften 52-43. Looking like a loss, but not awful numbers given that this was pretty much a writeoff. In IN-09, only 0.2% reporting, with Todd Young leading Baron Hill 54-43. In IN-02, with 5% reporting, the Jackie Walorski lead is down to 58-37. I’d expect this to tighten, but can’t say — under the new reporting regime, nobody seems to report House races with county data!

6:38pm: CNN is saying they’re up to 2% in IN-Sen, with Coats leading by a more predictable 54-41 now. With 1% in in KY-Sen, Paul leads Conway 57-43. In each case, we’re seeing rural parts of the state reporting.

6:33pm: Yikes, we have some IN-02 numbers, with Jackie Walorski up 62-34 over Joe Donnelly. I have to assume that’s a rural part of the district.

6:29pm: Until I can delve into the counties a little more, I don’t know if this is significant, but Dan Coats is leading Brad Ellsworth only 50-46, with 0.5% reporting. (Ah, here’s the story: Ellsworth leads in Vigo and Knox Counties, but those are both in his district, IN-08.)

6:26pm: KY-05: Long-time GOPer Hal Rogers lives to fight yet again.

6:22pm: In KY-06, we’re seeing some progress for Ben Chandler, now leading by 9 votes (out of 1,600 or so). 0.3% reporting. Importantly, none of this is Fayette Co. (where Lexington, college town, is.)

6:20pm: In Indiana, literally 0.0% is reporting, but Dan Coats still somehow leads Brad Ellsworth 55-40. IN-05 and IN-06 have been called for Dan Burton and Mike Pence, to absolutely no one’s surprise. The only contested race we’re seeing anything from is IN-08, where Larry Buchson leads 51-44, with 0.2% reporting.

6:17pm: Actually, we have some teeny-tiny results from Kentucky. Rand Paul’s up 56-43 in the Senate race, with 0.1% reporting. The results are mostly coming from GOP CDs. A few are in from KY-06, where Andy Barr is up by 70 votes with 0.3% reporting.

Polls have just closed in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. With 0% of precincts reporting, amazingly no Democrats have lost any races yet. We’ll update once we see some action.

RESULTS:

257 thoughts on “Liveblog Thread #1”

  10.  Alot of my 18 year old friends have voted (Democratic) and all my teachers are planning to vote too (I reminded some.) Also, I talked to 13 Democratic voters and they all plan to vote or have voted. I drove by my polling place twice and in the morning, there were a few people. In the afternoon, I saw some people heading toward it and all the voting booths were taken.  

  16. Repubs win the first House call of the night. ONOZ WE FUKD. Scumbag Dan Burton somehow gets a call from the AP already. Coats leading 55-40, Ellsworth only narrowly winning Knox County (Vincennes?) in his district.

  19. I think more than the southern districts, look and see how Joe Donnelly is doing in his northern Indiana district — I’m not sure when they’ll start reporting results, as part of the district is in the central time zone.

    If he’s winning by say high single digits or better, a good night for us.  Close means about as expected.  Losing to Wacky Jackie — as I’ve said before, just start drinking heavily!!!

    The two counties to look for are LaPorte (Michigan City) and St Joe (South Bend) — both are Democratic areas that Donnelly won by around 60% when he was elected by 8 points in 2006.  They are the two largest counties as well, so I’ll be looking for % of the vote and total margin.

  24. Jack Conway seems to be winning the counties of east Kentucky.  Between Obama and the coal issue, I was thinking the area could be completely gone for Democrats.  Of course, we may just be seeing the most Democratic precincts so far in counties like Breathitt and Powell.

  28. Can someone tell me what happened in New Hampshire.  I watched the debate on C-Span between Ayotte and Hodes, I understand the national trend.  Did Hodes also run a bad campaign though because Ayotte literally just spewed talking points.  I always have considered the voters of NH some of the smartest voters in the country, why is Ayotte running away with this or will the numbers be closer than the polls?  

  30.  Ellsworth is leading only 3 points in Vigo County while Obama won there with about 56% of the vote. Not looking too good for him. Also, Vigo County is in Ellsworth’s district. There’s still 74% more in that county though.

  32. CNN just told us that write-in votes will only be counted if the number of write in ballots either exceeds the leader’s total, or is within 0.5% of the leader’s total. So either Miller or McAdams wins tonight, or we wait until ballots are fully counted and certified on November 18th to find out if Murkowski is re-elected.

  47. Here are some links you can copy and paste for county results for U.S. House and state legislatures.  Doesn’t seem like they are doing governors, U.S. Senate, or other statewide races like they do in the primaries though.  You just have to change the state abbreviation to whatever you want.  

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/f…

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/f…

    It’s also illuminating for the IN-2 race that is a hot topic right now–most of the results are from Cass County, FWIW.  

  48. Here are some links you can copy and paste for county results for U.S. House and state legislatures.  Doesn’t seem like they are doing governors, U.S. Senate, or other statewide races like they do in the primaries though.  You just have to change the state abbreviation to whatever you want.  

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/f…

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/f…

    It’s also illuminating for the IN-2 race that is a hot topic right now–most of the results are from Cass County, FWIW.  

  49. Here are some links you can copy and paste for county results for U.S. House and state legislatures. Doesn’t seem like they are doing governors, U.S. Senate, or other statewide races like they do in the primaries though. You just have to change the state abbreviation to whatever you want.

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/general/by_county/us_house/WI.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/general/by_county/state_sen_house/NY.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

    It’s also illuminating for the IN-2 race that is a hot topic right now–most of the results are from Cass County, FWIW.

  50. Here are some links you can copy and paste for county results for U.S. House and state legislatures. Doesn’t seem like they are doing governors, U.S. Senate, or other statewide races like they do in the primaries though. You just have to change the state abbreviation to whatever you want.

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/general/by_county/us_house/WI.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/general/by_county/state_sen_house/NY.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

    It’s also illuminating for the IN-2 race that is a hot topic right now–most of the results are from Cass County, FWIW.

  71. 12 votes have reported. Hodes is outperforming Kuster. Hodes leads 7-5, and Kuster trails 5-7. Wonder if that is a trend that will be common in his home district?

  76. Good: Chandler leads Barr in KY-06 with 22% in.

    Bad: 55% of Fayette County is already in.

    Good: only 31% reporting in Lexington mayor’s race, so maybe the conservative parts of Fayette County are the ones coming in?

    Ahhhhh so confusing.

  82. we are hitting/better than some targets (IN-03, IN-08, KY-06). Missing some (IN-09, IN-02, KY-03, IN-07), though only Donnelly and Hill are really worrisome, and it’s early..  

  91. Hi there,

    does anyone know if there is online streaming of cnn or msnbc election coverage. So far I have to rely on Fox News here in Germany. Nothing I wanna do the whole night 🙁

  95.  I hope we do not see what happened in 2004 with Kerry leading by 3. Exit polls show Strickland +3. I do not think there will be much vote stealing this time though.  

  97. Not Larry Sabato seems to think that Rick Boucher is toast, as are Periello and Nye.

    He doesn’t think Connolly’s going to win either, but he says it’s too soon to tell and he has never liked Connolly.  

  100. Perriello is trailing by a little over 7500 votes at the moment. However, percentage-wise he is outperforming 2008 everwhere I look. Obviously, the numbers are lower in overall votes that have come in, but at precinct levels in Danville and in general in Prince Edward County, he’s slightly ahead of the 2008 pace, again in terms of percentages.

  105.  Scott is leading 19 points with about 106,000 votes in Miami Dade County. I hope it’s just showing poor early voting numbers that the Republicans dominated. Also, the early voting numbers in Miami Dade are suprisingly good for Rubio too with him 61% so maybe it is just early Republican votes.  

  112. Exit poll for OH Gov just posted.  Hopefully it holds up

    Men 48% of the sample Kasich 50 Strickland 48

    Women 52% Strickland 52 Kasich 45  

    which translates to a narrow Strickland lead, but still too close to call.

  113.    Toomey needs to fire his spokeswoman.  She says that they are predicting victory based on high turnout in working class areas of northeast Philadelphia that they feel will go Republican.  REALLY?!  Hahahaha.  Toomey will probably still win, but that is a ridiculous reason for a Toomey victory.  Maybe the CNN reporter is just a fool.

      Sestak’s spokesman also claims victory slightly more plausibly, based on high turnout in Philly, Pittsburg, and the Lehigh Valley.  I’m not certain if high Lehigh turnout is really that great.  It’s swingy.

  119.  Strickland is leading by 38% in Mahoning County which went 30 points for Obama who won by 5% in Ohio. These are the kinds of margins Strickland needs to get in his strong area (Mahoning County is not even in his old district though.)  

  120. Hayhurst didn’t even keep it close. We’re probably not going to be competitive in that district ever again without the Repubs running a douche like Souder.

    BB: 20 Rep 2 D

  125. Ayotte cruising, Rubio doing better… Sink still ahead by under 1% though.

    I guess you actually can’t look until after all polls close in a state.

  127. Among the 57% of the electorate who are not white evangelical/born-again, Alvin Greene is WINNING, 41%-40% for DeMint and 16% for Clements.  

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