Okay, I literally spent the last 24 hours typing this out non-stop, and finished 2 minutes ago, so forgive me if this is still a bit improvisatory.
I and my partner, who will be online in an hour, run the prediction website www.stochasticdemocracy.com, and this is both the presentation of our final projections and our liveblog.
The liveblog structure is a bit unusual: Below is a write-up of our whole results, ordered by state, and then within the states the single races- Congress, US Senate, Gubernatorial Races.
We’ll plug the liveblog updates into the place for every single race, so if you’re interested in one race you can find it pretty quickly without having to read the whole blog.
But first, here are our predictions, summarized.
The Democrats will take 51.6 Senate Seats, to 48 for the Republicans and .4 for the Murkowski’s.
The Democrats will win 197 House seats, the chance that the GOP gains control over the House is 98%.
The Democrats will keep 19.9 Governorships, to 29.5 for the Republicans and .6 for Independents.
These numbers will be updated throughout the night as our probabilistic estimates are converted into definite calls as the election results start to come in.
Okay, here are our projections: Prepare for a lot of text. I fear the format didn’t copy correctly from Word 2007 to SSP, but there’s not much I can do to change that now.
You can find the predictions in a much more convenient format here: http://stochasticdemocracy.blogspot.com/p/forecasts.html
Alaska
Senator
It’s very hard to make any prediction on the Alaska Senate race, for two reasons:
1) The nature of the race, pitting two Republican candidates versus one Democrat in a red state in a good Republican year
2) The polls- first of all, Alaska polls are infamous for always being dead wrong, for example predicting an easy double digit win for 2008 Dem Senate nominee Mark Begich in what turned out to be a nailbiter decided by the absentee vote, furthermore, the polls have been wildly divergent in predicting the three-way race, showing everything from a close three-way-race to a Murkowski blowout to a Miller win.
Still, if there’s anything like a ‘consensus’, it is that Murkowski and/or Miller are ahead right now and McAdams is trailing.
Stochastic Democracy forecast: The calculated Win Percentages are Miller 44%, Murkowski 38%, McAdams 18%, but there’s so much uncertainty that the best forecast has to be ‘We really don’t know what’s going on’.
Governor
The former Lieutenant Governor, Sean Parnell, who replaced Sarah Palin in the governor’s mansion when Palin suddenly retired, is running to win the Governorship in his own right, and he is a strong favorite over Democrat Ethan Berkowitz. Berkowitz is, as always when he runs for office, running a spirited campaign, and he won’t be totally embarrassed by the election results. Still, this race won’t be close.
Stochastic Democracy forecast: Parnell 56- Berkowitz 44
At-Large House
Veteran U.S. Representative Don Young (R) survived a strong challenge by Berkowitz in 2008, and he’s looking ahead to blast Democrat Harry Crawford out of the water.
Stochastic Democracy forecast: Young 62.5-Crawford 37.5
Alabama
Senator
U.S. Senator Richard Shelby (R) will handily win reelection here. He changed parties a long time before it was cool (he was a Democrat prior to 1994) and is doing much better than Parker Griffith ever could have hoped for.
Stochastic Democracy forecast: Shelby 64- Barnes 36
Governor
Outgoing Governor Riley (R) will be replaced by Republican gubernatorial candidate Robert Bentley, beating Democratic candidate Ron Sparks, who won the primary against Artur Davis.
Stochastic Democracy forecast: Bentley 59- Sparks 41
House 1
Jo Bonner (R) is running unopposed and will obviously win.
House 2
The arguably most conservative House Democrat, Bobby Bright, is in a tight race against Montgomery Councilwoman Martha Roby. Watch out for the swing counties Crenshaw and Dale and for the turnout in heavily African-American Montgomery here. Bright depends on heavy Montgomery turnout to pull this out.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Bright 51-Roby 49
House 3
Mike Rogers (R) will easily win reelection against Democratic candidate Steve Segrest.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Rogers 68-Segrest 32
House 4
Robert Aderholt (R) is running unopposed and will win.
House 5
This is Parker Griffith’s (D-R-whatever) old seat, he switched parties and was defeated in the GOP primary. Mo Brooks, the GOP candidate, is heavily favored to retain this seat for the GOP over Democratic candidate, Steve Raby, but Raby is running a strong campaign as a Conservative Democrat and won’t be annihilated completely here. The biggest county in the district is Madison (Huntsville), and it’s a very good bellwether for the district. If Raby is close here with a reasonable percentage of precincts returning, he has a shot districtwide as well.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Brooks 58-Raby 42
House 6
As always, Republican Spencer Bachus is running unopposed here. The Democrats didn’t even field candidates in 2006 and 2008 here.
House 7
Artur Davis, the Democratic representative in this majority-minority district, retired to run for Governor and lost in the primary. Terri Sewell won the primary to succeed Artur Davis and will win handily against Republican Don Chamberlain.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Sewell 68- Chamberlain 32
Arkansas
Senator
While Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln managed to beat back a primary challenge to her left by Lt.Gov. Bill Halter, she’s poised to lose to Rep. John Boozman (R) by a solid double digit margin, plagued by her terrible approval ratings and the solid Republican nature of the state on a federal level these days.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Boozman 59, Lincoln 41
Governor
Meanwhile, Governor Mike Beebe is very popular and not running for federal office- and on a statewide level, the Arkansas Democrats are still dominating. He’ll cruise to reelection over token Republican opponent Jim Keet, a former State Representative.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Beebe 63- Keet 37
House 1
Democratic Representative Marion Berry chose not to run for reelection here, and the candidates fighting it out for his seat are Democrat Chad Causey, a former staffer of Rep. Berry, and Republican businessman Rick Crawford. Democratic internal polls have the race close, but really, no one else does. If Causey carries Crittenden County, that means that he’s at least within single digits here. If he’s close in Greene County, then he’s REALLY competitive.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Crawford 54.5-Causey 45.5 Takeover
House 2
Democratic Representative Vic Snyder retired here, probably a wise decision. African-American Democratic State Senator Joyce Elliot is the Democratic candidate, and on track to lose to Republican Tim Griffin.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Griffin 56-Elliot 44 Takeover
House 3
John Boozman (R) is retiring here to move up to the U.S. Senate by beating Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln. He will be succeeded by Steve Womack, also a Republican, who faces little more than token opposition by Democrat David Whitaker.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Womack 69-Whitaker 31
House 4
Mike Ross is the only Arkansas Democratic Congressman who didn’t retire this year, and he’s probably going to be proven right in that decision by winning reelection. His Republican opponent, Beth Ann Rankin, has a little chance of winning, but most likely Ross will win- by lesser margins than he’s used to, but still. Be very worried when Rankin comes close in Ouachita County. With high rural turnout she might not even need to win there, but she can’t afford to run up a huge deficit there.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Ross 61-Rankin 39
Arizona
Senator
After beating back a primary challenge by former Congressman J.D. Hayworth, John McCain is going to handily beat Democrat Rodney Glassman, a millionaire and Tucson City Councilman.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: McCain 60, Glassman 40
Governor
For a while it looked like Gov. Jan Brewer (R), who took over when Pres. Obama appointed Janet Napolitano as Homeland security secretary, might be in trouble versus Democratic Attorney General Terry Goddard, but it looks like she shored up support with the popular, despite controversial, passage of the anti-immigrant bill SB 1070. Her reelection bid was shaken up by a horrible debate performances and a couple of gaffes, but still, a Goddard win would be a huge surprise. As always in Arizona, everything is about Maricopa County (Phoenix) here, which, unlike most urban counties, leans a little bit more Republican than the state as a whole. Also, watch for turnout and margins in Pima County- if the Hispanic community is really fired up against Brewer, that would manifest here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Brewer 54.5- Goddard 45.5
House 1
Ann Kirkpatrick (D) won election by a huge margin here in 2008 after people were fed up not only with Bush, but also with their local Republicans, because outgoing Representative Rick Renzi was under an investigation. Still, the district is basically Republican, and she voted for the Stimulus and for Healthcare Reform. This year, she trailed her opponent Paul Gosar all the time, and it would be a huge shocker if she was reelected. Watch out for Gila County- if she’s within a few points there, say, losing by 6 points or less, she could more likely than not hang on districtwide. If the margin is 6-10 points in favor of Gosar there, we’re looking at a nailbiter, if he’s winning by double digits, he’s most likely the Congressman-elect from Arizona 1.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Gosar 53-Kirkpatrick 47. Takeover
House 2
Trent Franks (R) really only needs to worry about one thing: Will he break 70% against his token Democratic opponent John Thrasher, or not?
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Franks 72-Thrasher 28
House 3
John Shadegg, easily one of the 10 most conservative House Republicans, and once an unsuccessful candidate for House Minority Leader, is retiring here, and the race was put on the map not long ago by a shocking PPP/DailyKos poll showing Democratic candidate Jon Hulburd actually slightly ahead of Republican candidate Ben Quayle- the son of former Vice President and Indiana Senator Dan Quayle. Hulburd has the ability to self-fund and uses it, so he’s running a competitive campaign. Still, in a district as Conservative like this, he probably still has to be considered an underdog. The district is entirely within Maricopa County, so, no county bellwethers here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Quayle 51-Hulburd 49
House 4
Pretty much the only thing Ed Pastor (D) has to worry about in this 66% Hispanic district is whether he will over- or underperform Trent Franks in AZ-02 in annihilating his Republican opponent Janet L. Contreras.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Pastor 67%-Contreras 33%
House 5
Democratic Freshman Harry Mitchell faces the fight of his life in another Maricopa County-bound district against his 2008 opponent David Schweikert, a former Majority Whip of the AZ House of Representatives and former Maricopa County Treasurer. While in the favorable climate of 2008 Mitchell managed to beat Schweikert by 10 points, this year the candidates have traded the lead back and forth. Mitchell outraised Schweikert 2:1 though, which might help him with financing a good GOTV campaign in the final stretch.
This race could prove to be a bellwether for House control, even though it’s a bit impractical for that because it’s so far in the West that by the time Arizona polls are closing we’re probably going to have a fairly good idea of who the next House Speaker is going to be anyway.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Schweikert 51%-Mitchell 49%. Takeover
House 6
Jeff Flake (R), probably is worrying right now more about his abdomen than about his Democratic challenger, Rebecca Schneider- after coming in third in the ‘Gym rat’ category in the Washingtonians ratings this year, he told Politico- ‘Apparently I need to clock more time in the gym this year- third place for ‘gym rat’ won’t do.’. Well, he’ll have plenty of time in the gym next year after joining the Pastor-Franks Caucus of Arizona Congressmen winning with around 70% of the vote.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Flake 74-Schneider 26
House 7
Raúl Grijalva (D) is in a race here that’s much closer than it should be, angering his constituents with calling for a boycott of his own state over the controversial anti-immigration law SB 1070.
Republican Ruth McClung has, after running as a sacrificial lamb for most of the cycle, suddenly ramped up her campaign and is now semi-competitive here. Grijalva will probably still win, but not by the 20+ vote margins he’s used to. Watch the Maricopa County portion of this district- if he’s underwater there, that spells bad news for him, even though he might be able to afford a 3-4 point loss there.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Grijalva 53.5-McClung 46.5
House 8
In one of the most closely fought races in the nation, freshman Democrat Gabrielle Giffords is in a bona fide toss-up against Republican candidate Steve Kelly. About half a million in Independent Expenditures has been spent against Giffords, who has kept the pace by raising more than $3 million over the cycle compared to Kelly’s $1.2 million. Pima County is the place to watch here- whoever wins here, is pretty likely to be the next Representative from Arizona’s 8th district.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Kelly 50.5-Giffords 49.5 Takeover
California
Senator
While Senator Barbara Boxer (D) was stuck in a close race with Republican Business Executive and self-funder Carly Fiorina (R) for most of the summer, she’s pulled away lately, and in a race with no lack of polling, we can be pretty sure that Senator Boxer will be back in Washington for another 6 years after all the votes are counted tomorrow.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Boxer 53.5-Fiorina 46.5
Governor
The dynamics of the gubernatorial race were eerily similar to those on the Senate side- Democrat Pat Brown, former Governor, Presidential candidate, former Mayor of Oakland, and current Attorney General, was stuck in a close race for the whole summer with Republican Businesswoman and self-funder, Meg Whitman- just that Whitman’s self-funding was in a whole different league, having spent more than $163 million dollars on the race.
Still, she probably over-saturated the airwaves so that people were just turned-off and annoyed by her ads, so Brown managed to pull away from her to a certain victory.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Brown 54.5-Whitman 45.5
House 01
I’ll keep the write-ups for the non-competitive California races short and sweet- there are just too many of them to go into detail here. Democrat Mike Thompson will easily win here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Thompson 66-Hanks 34
House 02
Republican Wally Herger will easily win reelection here, just like his counterpart Thompson in CA-01.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Herger 70-Reed 30
House 03
Meanwhile, CA-03 has a semi-competitive campaign, with Democratic challenger Ami Bera probably being one of the best in the cycle. He raised north of $2 million for the cycle and outraised Republican incumbent Dan Lungren- still, it’s probably not the right cycle for Bera. If he’s able to run with the same energy in a slightly better climate though, he could unseat Lungren at some point.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Lungren 56-Bera 44
House 04
Republican Congressman Tom McClintock is cruising to reelection here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Clintock 67- Curtis 33
House 05
Democratic Congresswoman Doris Matsui will easily retain her mandate for a 4th term.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Matsui 69-Smith 31
House 06
Matsui’s neighbor and fellow Democrat, Rep. Lynn Woolsey, is also winning.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Woolsey 70-Judd 30
House 07
As is Democrat George Miller here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Miller 69-Tubbs 31
House 08
While Nancy Pelosi more likely than not will lose the Speaker’s gavel, she will easily win reelection to her seat in Congress.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Pelosi 78-Dennis 22
House 09
Democrat Barbara Lee is cruising here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Lee 80- Hashimoto 20
House 10
Former Lieutenant Governor John Garamendi won this seat in a Special Election 2009, but his opponent now is much weaker than his Special Election opponent who held Garamendi to a 10-point margin here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Garamendi 64-Clift 36
House 11
Garamendi’s 2009 opponent, John Harmer, is now running in the neighboring district against Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney, who won two relatively close victories even in the Democratic waves of 2006 and 2008. Still, McNerney seems to perform better under pressure, and this election is far from over.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: McNerney 51-Harmer 49.
House 12
Democrat Jackie Speier will easily win.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Speier 72- Moloney 28
House 13
Another Democrat facing no serious opposition here, Pete Stark.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Stark 70-Baker 30.
House 14
Same goes for Anna Eshoo.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Eshoo 70-Chapman 30
House 15
And for Michael Honda.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Honda 67-Kirkland 33
House 16
And for Zoe Lofgren.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Lofgren 67-Zahagun 33
House 17
And for Sam Farr.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Farr 69-Taylor 31
House 18
And for Dennis Cardoza, even though he won’t match the lofty vote shares of his neighbors in CA 12-17.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Cardoza 57.5-Berryhill 42.5
House 19
Now we’re coming to the just as uncompetitive Republican areas. Jeff Denham is cruising to his first election here, succeeding his party colleague, Rep. Radanovich.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Denham 64-Goodwin 36. On a related note, Nate Silver is most likely overestimating the Republican’s performance here because he gives Radanovich credit for getting 99% of the vote against a Democrat here in 2008- never mind that the Democrat was just a write-in candidate. So, one of his variables here is skewed, which results in a 538 projection of 76% for Denham, which is… unlikely.
House 20
Democrat Jim Costa is in a tight race for reelection with Republican Andy Vidak here, but just how tight? SurveyUSA sees this as a certain GOP pickup, but their poll included only around 33% Hispanics in their sample, with about 67% of the district’s population being Hispanic. The DCCC was quick to fire back with an internal poll-that had Vidak within single digits though, so the race IS competitive.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Costa 51-Vidak 49.
House 21
Republican Devin Nunes is running unopposed here.
House 22
So is Kevin McCarthy here.
House 23
Democratic Congresswoman Lois Capps will win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Capps 63-Watson 37.
House 24
Elton Gallegly (R) will easily win a 13th term in Congress.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Gallegly 67-Allison 33
House 25
As will Howard McKeon, just that McKeon is running for only his 10th term.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: McKeon 68- Conaway 32
House 26
And David Dreier will join these two.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Dreier 67-Warner 33
House 27
Brad Sherman, one of the many almost unknown rank-and-file Democrats from blue states like California or Massachusetts, will win an 8th term here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Sherman 66-Reed 34.
House 28
Same goes for Howard Berman, who has a somewhat higher profile than Sherman.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Berman 72-Froyd 28
House 29
Another Democrat, Adam Schiff, will win a 6th term here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Schiff 66-Colbert (no, not THAT Colbert) 34
House 30
Henry Waxman will easily win another one of his countless terms in the House.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Waxman 68-Wilkerson 32
House 31
As will Xavier Becerra.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Becerra 74-Smith 26
House 32
Judy Chu, who won a Special Election to replace former Rep. and now-Labor Secretary Hilda Solis, is running for a full term now and will easily beat Republican Edward Schmerling.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Chu 68-Schmerling 32
House 33
Democrat Karen Bass will easily succeed in her run to ..uh, succeed retiring Democrat Diane Watson.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Bass 75-Andion 25
House 34
Democratic long-term backbencher Lucille Roybal-Allard will win another term in Congress.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Roybal-Allard 70.5-Miller 29.5
House 35
Maxine Waters (D) is also winning.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Waters 77-Brown 23
House 36
Jane Harman handily beat back her second primary challenge from progressive activist Marcy Winograd, and will now just as handily beat her Republican opponent, Mattie Fein.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Harman 64-Fein 36
House 37
Laura Richardson (D) is another certain winner.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Richardson 72-Parker 28
House 38
So is Democrat Grace Napolitano.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Napolitano 69-Vaughn 31
House 39
Linda Sanchez (D) is also winning.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Sanchez 64-Andre 36
House 40
So is Ed Royce, but Royce is a Republican.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Royce 71-Avalos 29
House 41
Jerry Lewis, a Republican and probably one of the most unknown 16-term Congressmen, will also win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Lewis 71- Meagher 29
House 42
Gary Miller (R) is also winning reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Miller 71-Williamson 29
House 43
Democrat Joe Baca is another one in a long row of California Congressmen who will have a really boring election night.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Baca 64-Folkens 36
House 44
Ken Calvert (R) had a very credible challenge from Democrat Bill Hedrick in 2008- Hedrick is running again, but if you can’t unseat a Republican Congressman in 2008, then there’s no way you’ll do it in 2010.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Calvert 58-Hedrick 42
House 45
Mary Bono Mack, one of the few Republicans to back the House Energy Bill, faces a challenge from credible and well-funded Democrat Stephen Poignet, who’s running in the wrong cycle.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Mack 67-Poignet 33.
House 46
Dana Rohrabacher (R) is easily cruising to reelection here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Rohrabacher 67-Arnold 33
House 47
Loretta Sanchez (D) is used to winning by 20 points here, but a series of gaffes and racially charged comments have made this race competitive- but probably not competitive enough for Vietnamese Republican Van Tran to win in this race that’s heavily polarized among racial lines.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Sanchez 52-Van Tran 48
House 48
Republican Congressman John Campbell is winning here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Campbell 68-Krom 32
House 49
As is Darrell Issa (R).
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Issa 71-Katz 29
House 50
Democrat Francine Busby is running a relatively viable campaign against Republican incumbent Brian Bilbray, but she lost by 9 points even in 2006. This cycle she’ll perform worse than that.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Bilbray 65-Busby 35
House 51
Another Democratic backbencher, Bob Filner, will easily win a 10th term.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Filner 64-Popaditch 36.
House 52
Duncan Hunter will easily win a second term as a Republican.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Hunter 70-Lutz 30
House 53
Democratic incumbent Susan Davis will win another term in Congress.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Davis 66-Crimmins 34
Colorado
Senator
Michael Bennett, the Democratic incumbent who was appointed to the Senate by retiring Governor Ritter, is in a dead heat with Republican nominee Ken Buck. Both had razor-close primaries, with Bennett, relying on President Obama’s support, fending off Senate Minority Leader Andrew Romanoff, and Ken Buck, relying on the strength of the Tea Party movement, defeating the establishment choice, former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton.
Bennett trailed for most of the summer, but he’s moved into a tie in late October and is now in one of the closest Senate races in the Nation- if not THE closest race. If he wins, Democrats can hope for keeping a workable majority of 52 or 53 or even 54 seats.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Bennett 50.3-Buck 49.7
Governor
What a crazy election! The Democrats are running with popular Denver mayor John Hickenlooper as a candidate, but not even that was a constant in this race. For most of 2009, it was assumed that Gov. Ritter would run for reelection, but looking at his mediocre approval ratings he decided to make way for Hickenlooper, who had considerably more upside.
The Republicans looked poised to nominate former U.S. Representative Scott McInnis, who was upset in the primary by Tea Party candidate Dan Maes. Maes was caught up in a series of scandals, and former U.S. Representative and Presidential Candidate Tom Tancredo entered the race as the Constitution Party Candidate, quickly shoving Maes aside and assuming the role as the number one challenger to Hickenlooper.
Tancredo surged quickly, but it appears that his momentum stalled in the last week or so, leaving Hickenlooper the likely victor.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Hickenlooper 51-Tancredo 41-Maes 8
House 01
Democratic Representative Diana DeGette appears poised to win reelection to the U.S. Congress this year.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: De Gette 61- Fallon 39
House 02
Same goes for Jared Polis (D), who will not face major trouble in winning his reelection bid.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Polis 62- Bailey 38
House 03
John Salazar (D) was first elected in a close race in 2004 and cruised to reelection twice comfortably in the wave years of 2006 and 2008. This time around, he faces a well-funded and aggressive Republican challenger, Scott Tipton. Salazar beat Tipton handily in 2006, but this time Tipton gives him a much harder challenge in a favorable national climate. Both national parties and interest groups have invested millions in negative ads against both candidates. This is another race that could, much like AZ-05, be a bellwether for House control. Within the district, a good bellwether could be Garfield County, which has about the same political leanings as the district as a whole and provides a reasonable number of votes (well above 10,000).
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Tipton 51.5-Salazar 48.5 Takeover
House 04
The call isn’t as close here. Democratic incumbent Betsy Markey (D) trailed challenger Cory Gardner (R) all the time, and while Marilyn Musgrave, the Republican Congresswoman who was ousted by Markey in 2008, was probably a bit too extreme for the district, at least in 2008, Gardner will most likely unseat Markey and take back the seat into the Republican column.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Gardner 53.5-Markey 46.5
House 05
Republican Rep. Doug Lamborn doesn’t have such problems, he’ll serve another term- presumably alongside Tipton and Gardner- in the next Congress.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Lamborn 72.5-Bradley 27.5
House 06
Same goes for Republican Freshman Mike Coffman.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Coffman 70-Flerlage 30
House 07
Democrat Ed Perlmutter (D) represents a relatively Democratic district in Congress- but not Democratic enough to avoid a strong challenge from well-funded Republican Ryan Frazier. The seat has been targeted by outside interest groups from both sides, but in the end it looks like the Democratic lean of the district will prove too much for Frazier to overcome.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Perlmutter 53.5-Frazier 46.5
Connecticut
Senator
Luckily for Democrats, Senator Chris Dodd retired instead of facing a certain loss because of his unpopularity. Instead, popular Attorney General Dick Blumenthal will win the seat for the Democrats, and even though his approval ratings are not as stellar anymore as they were when the campaign started, his victory was never really in doubt, despite of the self-funding to the tune of 50 million $ by his opponent, WWE CEO Linda McMahon.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Blumenthal 56.5-McMahon 43.5
Governor
Due to the retirement of popular Republican Governor Jodi Rell, Democrats seem favored to pick up the Connecticut Governor’s mansion. Democrats nominated Dan Malloy over 2006 Senate nominee Ned Lamont in the primary, while Republicans nominated former U.S. ambassador and businessman Tom Foley over incumbent Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele.
Malloy led decisively for most of the campaign, but it appears that Foley is surging in the last days of the campaign. Rasmussen, Quinnipiac and PPP all agree that Foley has a small lead, the other pollsters still have Malloy ahead.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Malloy 51-Foley 49
House 01
Democratic incumbent John Larson will do his part in keeping the Connecticut delegation to Congress 100% Democratic.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Larson 58.5- Brickley 41.5
House 02
Joe Courtney also will be reelected to Congress. All Connecticut seats have been polled, so we’re fairly certain that the non-competitive races here won’t see any surprises.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Courtney 61.5-Peckinpaugh 38.5
House 03
Rosa DeLauro is just as safe as Larson and Courtney in their races.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: DeLauro 61-Labriola 39
House 04
Jim Himes is, after unseating long-term Republican Chris Shays in 2008, running in a hot race against Republican Dan Debicella. Weirdly, no national party has been engaged in the race, but both candidates have raised and spent millions here on their own. The race appears to lean towards Himes, but it’s really up in the air. If Hines is holding on to Shelton or at least within 5 there, it would be definitely good news.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Himes 51-Debicella 49
House 05
Chris Murphy (D) is in a very similar situation to Hines. He outspent his Republican opponent, Sam Caligiuri, 3:1, if you count Independent Expenditure spending as well- yet, he’s in a dead heat with Caligiuri in this district. Towns like Canton or Cheshire might be the ones to watch here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Murphy 50.5-Caligiuri 49.5
Delaware
Senator
Democrats can really send Christine O’Donnell flowers on Wednesday, because she gave the Democrats a Senate seat for free. Mike Castle, the long-term GOP politician, former governor, U.S. Representative and basically a father-figure for the whole state, lost the primary against Tea Party candidate Christine O’Donnell, therefore opening a path to victory for until then sacrificial lamb Chris Coons, the New Castle County Executive (New Castle has 2/3 of Delaware’s population though).
Polls consistently showed Castle beating Coons by 20 points or more, both during the run-up to the primary as well as in post-primary hypothetical matchups. In turn, Coons leads O’Donnell by double digits, so he’ll win an easy victory tomorrow.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Coons 60-O’Donnell 40
House 01
Democratic Lt. Gov. John Carney will succeed Mike Castle in the U.S. Congress, beating GOP candidate Glen Urquhart, who rode Christine O’Donnell’s Tea Party coattails to a narrow victory in the primary over establishment choice Michele Rollins.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Carney 57-Urquhart 43 Takeover
Florida
Senator
This race could have been almost as unpredictable and hard to predict as the Alaska Senate Race, but one of the three candidates- Republican Tea Party candidate Marco Rubio- Republican-turned-Independent Governor Charlie Crist and Democratic U.S. Representative Kendrick Meek- has a decisive lead in this three-way race to succeed George LeMieux, the short-time Senator appointed by Crist to take the place of retiring Senator Martinez (R) until the new duly elected Senator is sworn in.
That Senator will be Marco Rubio, defeating Gov. Crist, with Rep. Meek coming in a distant third. It probably wouldn’t have been any different if Meek had dropped out a couple of weeks ago, but at least the race would have been close.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Rubio 48-Crist 32-Meek 20
Governor
The Florida Gubernatorial race, on the other hand, is a quite close race between Democratic Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink and Republican billionaire and businessman Rick Scott. Scott upset the GOP attorney general McCollum in the primary, but hasn’t proved to be a very appealing General Election candidate, narrowly trailing Sink for most of the fall election campaign in a reddish purple state in an open seat race- you can be pretty sure that a Generic Republican would easily dispose of a Generic Democrat here. But with the Republicans being stuck with Rick Scott as their nominee, we’re looking at a very slight lead for Alex Sink right now.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Sink 51-Scott 49
House 01
Jeff Miller (R) will easily win his reelection bid.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Miller 78-Bryan 22
House 02
Democratic Incumbent Allen Boyd is probably the Democratic incumbent most likely to lose his reelection bid. He trails his opponent, Steve Southerland, by double digits and will lose his job in January.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Southerland 57-Boyd 43 Takeover
House 03
Despite a weird internal poll released by GOP challenger Michael Yost, Democratic incumbent Corrine Brown should NOT be in trouble here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Brown 60.5-Yost 39.5
House 04
Rep. Ander Crenshaw (R) is running unopposed.
House 05
Richard Nugent (R) is the definite frontrunner in the race to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Nugent 75-Piccillo 25
House 06
Cliff Stearns (R) will easily win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Stearns 71-Schonberg 29
House 07
Despite having a Democratic challenger who’s more active than your usual sacrificial lamb, Republican John Mica will easily win reelection here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Mica 70-Beaven 30
House 08
Alan Grayson (D), a freshman Democrat running for reelection in this Orlando-based district, has been running as an unapologetic liberal- blasting the GOP and his opponent Dan Webster with heavy-handed rhetoric and ads, comparing, for instance, his opponent with the Taliban. This has probably backfired in this actually Republican-leaning district, as Grayson trails Webster in his reelection bid. Watch the results from Orange County- if Grayson trails here, it’s game over and not even close. He needs to win Orange County by at least 3-4 points to have a fair shot district-wide.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Webster 55-Grayson 45 Takeover
House 09
No cigar for Democrat Anita de Palma here, as Republican Rep. Gus Bilirakis wins an easy victory to be reelected to Congress.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Bilirakis 70-de Palma 30
House 10
Bill Young (R) will win a 21st term in the House.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Young 65.5-Justice 34.5
House 11
Kathy Castor (D) will also be easily reelected, one of the few Democrats left in the Florida delegation after the election.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Castor 64-Prendergast 36
House 12
This race is virtually impossible to predict- a Republican district, but with a viable Tea Party Candidate splitting the vote. There have been no even remotely recent polls, so there’s no way to tell what’s going on. Stochastic Democracy will only try to predict the two-way vote between the two major party candidates here, Lori Edwards (D) and Dennis Ross (R), both of whom are vying to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Adam Putnam (R), who is running for Agricultural Commissioner.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Ross 53-Edwards 47
House 13
Vern Buchanan (R) wins an easy reelection here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Buchanan 69-Golden 31
House 14
Connie Mack (R) does the same thing Buchanan does- winning, and by a huge margin.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Mack- 74.5-Roach 25.5
House 15
Republican Freshman Bill Posey is also winning easily.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Posey 67.5-Roberts 32.5
House 16
Tom Rooney, who ousted scandal-ridden Democratic Rep. Maloney in 2008 after Maloney had ousted another scandal-ridden Representative, Republican Mark Foley, in 2006, is on track to win an easy election to a second term.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Rooney 68.5-Horn 31.5
House 17
Democrat Frederica Wilson is running unopposed to succeed Rep. Kendrick Meek, who left the seat to lose a bid for U.S. Senate.
House 18
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) is cruising here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Ros-Lehtinen 67-Banciella 33
House 19
Democratic Rep. Ted Deutch, who won a Special Election to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Wexler earlier this year, will win a full two-year term today.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Deutch 69.5-Budd 30.5
House 20
Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D) faces only token opposition here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Wasserman Schultz 66-Harrington 34
House 21
Mario Diaz-Balart (R) retired from the 25th district to run for office here, in the 21st district where his brother, Lincoln, retired. This district is much friendlier to Republicans than the 25th, so Mario will face little opposition here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Diaz-Balart 65.5-Sanchez 34.5
House 22
In one of the most expensive and closely fought races in these House elections, Democratic Representative Ron Klein is challenged by Iraq Veteran and Conservative idol Allen West, whom he defeated 55-45 in 2008. Combined with Independent Expenditure spending, the two have spent more than $10 million on this race, and both are locked into a close race. Pres. Obama has come to the district to hold a fundraiser for Klein, and West has a huge following in the conservative movement, so this is- besides the election in FL-08- an important benchmark for Tea Party performance. Unfortunately (or fortunately), the district consists only of parts of two counties, which lean pretty much the same way politically, so the returns of either county will most likely mirror the final outcome fairly closely.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: West 51-Klein 49 Takeover
House 23
Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings is easily cruising to reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Hastings 74.5-Sansaricq 25.5
House 24
Democratic freshman Suzanne Kosmas has been trailing all year in this Republican-leaning district after voting yes on the Health Care bill, and will likely lose to Republican candidate Sandra Adams. Kosmas outraised Adams 4:1, but with outside groups coming to Adams’ rescue and spending 650.000 against Kosmas here, it won’t matter. If Kosmas leads in Orange County though it’s worth to keep an eye on the district- that alone won’t put her over the top, but it’d indicate a competitive race. If she’s at least very close in Seminole, that’s a good sign.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Adams 55-Kosmas 45 Takeover
House 25
In one of the few legit Dem pickup chances this year, Democratic challenger Joe Garcia, who provided a very strong challenge to Mario Diaz-Balart in 2008, is running again, and raising millions of $ for his bid. Diaz-Balart retired to run in the more GOP-friendly 21st district, leaving middling GOP candidate David Rivera, saddled with financial disclosure problems, behind. A perfect recipe for an upset, and Democratic outside groups have been hitting Rivera hard with expenditures in the seven-digit range. Watch Miami-Dade returns here, it’s where 90% of the votes are.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Rivera 51-Garcia 49
Georgia
Senator
Johnny Isakson is easily cruising to reelection here- Democrat Michael Thurmond wasn’t running a bad campaign, but Isakson is popular, and this is a red state in a red year.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Isakson 61.5-Thurmond 38.5
Governor
Democrats had high hopes when former Governor Roy Barnes declared his candidacy- but even he can’t overcome the anti-Democratic tsunami that’s crushing Democrats in non-African-American majority districts all over the South.
Nathan Deal, the Republican candidate and U.S. Congressman will, despite lots of financial disclosure scandals, be the next Governor of Georgia. The only question that remains is, will it take a run-off or not? We don’t know, we project only the margin between the two major-party candidates here, extrapolated to 100%, but if Deal has to go to a runoff, he’ll certainly win there, and by a huge margin- much like Sen. Chambliss in 2008.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Deal 53.5-Barnes 46.5
House 01
As in most Georgia races, the Republican incumbent, Jack Kingston, is easily winning here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Kingston 75-Harris 25
House 02
Sanford Bishop (D) is running for reelection in this district split evenly between Whites and African-Americans. His opponent, Mike Keown, is banking on low turnout by the African-American electorate to oust Bishop here and so far, it looks like he’s coming very close.
Watch out for Muskogee turnout here- pretty much every vote cast there is a vote for Bishop, and that’s true for many black belt counties here.
There are no real swing areas here, it’s simply about African-American vs. White turnout.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Bishop 52.5-Keown 47.5
House 03
Lynn Westmoreland (R) is winning. Big.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Westmoreland 75.5-Saunders 24.5
House 04
Hank Johnson (D) is cruising in this district with a 25% White population.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Johnson 71.5-Carter 29.5
House 05
Same goes for Civil Rights Era veteran John Lewis (D)
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Lewis 72-Little 28
House 06
Tom Price (R) is running unopposed.
House 07
Rob Woodall (R) will succeed retiring Rep. John Linder (R).
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Woodall 63.5-Heckman 36.5
House 08
Jim Marshall (D) is fighting for his political life in one of the last seats with a white majority population in the Deep South still controlled by a Democrat. Starting in January 2011 however, GA-08 will be represented by Marshall’s opponent, Austin Scott. If Marshall keeps Houston County within single digits, he might have a shot at winning.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Scott 54-Marshall 46 Takeover
House 09
Tom Graves (R) running unopposed here.
House 10
Paul Brown (R) is on track to crush Democratic challenger Russell Edwards.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Brown 72.5-Edwards 27.5
House 11
Phil Gingrey (R) running unopposed.
House 12
John Barrow (D) will easily retain his seat. Apart from GA-08 there are no real swing districts in Georgia, and after Marshall’s loss that seat will be solidly Republican as well.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Barrow 56-McKinney 44
House 13
David Scott (D) will easily win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Scott 65-Crane 35
Hawai’i
Senator
In one of the most boring Senate races in the nation, Democratic long-term Senator Dan Inouye is easily defeating Republican Cam Cavasso, despite a Rasmussen poll showing Cavasso within 15.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Inouye 66.5-Cavasso 33.5
Governor
For most of the summer it looked like the real race here was the Democratic primary between Congressman Neil Abercrombie and Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann (which Abercrombie won). But in October the Republican candidate Duke Aiona, the Lieutenant Governor to Republican Linda Lingle, somehow surged and managed to get within single digits of Abercrombie. Still, the polls uniformly show a small Abercrombie lead, and there’s reason to believe that the polls underestimate Democratic support in Hawai’i because of the Asian population supposedly being unwilling to respond to polls, but voting heavily for the Democrats.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Abercrombie 54-Aiona 46
House 01
This race has fairly unique conditions: The Republican incumbent, Charles Djou, only managed to get elected in a Special Election because he had two Democratic opponents, Ed Case and Colleen Hanabusa, who split the Democratic vote relatively evenly, allowing Djou to become the new Congressman for HI-01 with 40% of the vote. Hanabusa is running again, this time in a 1 on1 election, but Djou proved to be a popular incumbent, so that the race is not the easy pickup Democrats had hoped for. Still, Hawai’i is very Democratic, so Djou will likely share the fate of his Republican ally Joseph Cao in LA-02 (New Orleans).
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Hanabusa 51.5-Djou 48.5 Takeover
House 02
Democrat Mazie Hirono is running for reelection in one of the most Democratic seats nationwide.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Hirono 76.5-Willoughby 23.5
Iowa
Senator
In early 2010, Democrats had hopes to give five-term GOP senator Charles “Tweetie” Grassley a scare with netroots-supported candidate Roxanne Conlin. That didn’t pan out, as Conlin is on track to get crushed by the still relatively popular Grassley.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Grassley 62.5-Conlin 37.5
Governor
Unpopular Democratic Governor faced with record-high unemployment running against a popular former Republican Governor who didn’t have to face many problems during his tenure. Enough said. Chet Culver is going down against Terry Branstad, and not just by a few points.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Branstad 55-Culver 45
House 01
Bruce Braley (D) is facing a relatively strong GOP opponent in Benjamin Lange, who has been able to get several outside groups on his side by running TV ads against Braley here, but still- the district is fairly Democratic and Braley hasn’t been complacent. Unless the whole night goes terribly wrong for Democrats, Braley stays in Congress. Watch out for Scott County- when Braley wins, ties or just very narrowly loses it, he’s looking good.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Braley 54-Lange 46
House 02
Dave Loebsack’s position is actually pretty similar to Braley’s- everything said above is true for him as well. Still, his seat is slightly less Democratic than Braley’s, and the DCCC hasn’t run the most intelligent ads in support of him, so his Republican opponent Mariannette Miller-Meeks (what a name-good that she doesn’t have to run as a write-in), who lost handily to Loebsack in 2008, has a slightly better shot than Lange. Watch out for Linn County- Loebsack should win there to be assured of a victory. If he ties there, it’s looking just a bit better than 50-50 for him, and if he loses it, then he has a serious problem.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Loebsack 53-Miller-Meeks 47
House 03
Leonard Boswell (D) was supposed to be the most endangered Iowa Democrat. But he lucked out by drawing a very weak GOP opponent in Brad Zaun, who should probably be ahead here, but still trails Boswell by a significant margin. Boswell isn’t out of the danger zone yet, but he’s looking better than many people would have thought a year ago. Watch the Polk County returns here: There are most of the votes and the county roughly mirrors the district’s political leanings. Whoever wins Polk is likely the next Congressman.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Boswell 53-Zaun 47
House 04
Tom Latham (R) is easily winning his reelection bid.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Latham 67-Maske 33
House 05
So is Steve King (R).
Stochastic Democracy Projection: King 70.5-Campbell 29.5
Idaho
Senator
Not much political knowledge is necessary to forecast that Republican Senator Mike Crapo will easily win his reelection bid.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Crapo 75.5-Sullivan 24.5
Governor
Democratic candidate Keith Allred has actually run a pretty honorable and valiant campaign against Republican incumbent Butch Otter. His only consolation price will be to overperform Sullivan by a quite significant margin- the governor’s mansion will go to Otter.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Otter 61.5-Allred 38.5
House 01
One of the most conservative House Democrats, Walt Minnick, is actually looking very good in his reelection bid against Republican Raul Labrador in this very, very Republican district. Minnick actually went to Labrador’s right on some issues, and it appears to have worked- Minnick doesn’t have a comfortable margin of victory, but he will at least likely be back in DC come 2011.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Minnick 54- Labrador 46
House 02
Republican Rep. Mike Simpson will easily blast Democrat Mike Crawford away.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Simpson 75-Crawford 25.
Illinois
Senator
I won’t bother to write about the story of this Senate seat in the last two years- you all know it, I guess. The probably most unpopular pair of Senate candidates in the nation (tied with Harry Reid and Sharron Angle) is duking it out for Pres. Obama’s old Senate seat: Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Republican U.S. Representative Mark Kirk.
Kirk had a minimal-to-nonexistent lead for most of the campaign, and that’s still true.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Kirk 50.15-Giannoulias 49.85 Takeover
Governor
When you’re following someone as unpopular as Rod Blagojevich into office, then your reelection bid is likely doomed. For Gov. Pat Quinn this wisdom looked to be true for most of the summer, he was trailing Republican candidate, State Sen. Bill Brady, by a fairly large margin. Then, the spotlight of the campaign fell on the fairly extreme conservative stances of Brady and Quinn was able to make up some lost ground- but not all of it. Bill Brady will almost certainly be Illinois’ next Governor.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Brady: 52.25-Quinn 47.75
House 01
Bobby Rush is running unopposed in this Democratic Chicago district.
House 02
Jesse Jackson Jr. isn’t unopposed, but he might as well be.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Jackson Jr. 80- Hayes 20
House 03
Dan Lipinski will also win.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Lipinski 66.5-Bendas 33.5
House 04
Luis Gutierrez is unopposed here.
House 05
Mike Quigley, the successor of Rahm Emanuel, will win a full term today.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Quigley 70.5-Ratowitz 29.5
House 06
Republican Pete Roskam is easily winning here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Roskam 66-Lowe 34
House 07
Danny Davis (D) wins.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Davis 78-Weiman 22
House 08
Melissa Bean (D) is a Midwestern Democrat running for reelection in a not-totally urban district, which automatically makes her a bit vulnerable. However, the Republicans haven’t targeted her with national resources, and Bean’s opponent, Joe Walsh, had to fight with his own resources. He’s done fairly well considering that, but he’ll likely still lose. However, if Bean is tied or just very slightly ahead in Lake County, that could spell out danger for her.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Bean 53-Walsh 47
House 09
Jan Schakowsky (D) is a non-vulnerable Democrat.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Schakowsky 66.5-Pollak 33.5
House 10
Democrat Dan Seals is running for the third time in this district now, and maybe the third time’s a charm for him: It’s at least the first time he doesn’t have to face locally popular Republican Mark Kirk.
In this open seat race against Republican Bob Dold, Democrats hope to get a rare shot at a Democratic pickup, while Republicans try to hang on to the Republican-held, but Democratic-leaning seat. Several millions have been spend by candidates and outside groups here in this district, including almost $2 million by Dem-friendly groups against Dold. Republican internal polling had Dold ahead by large margins consistently, and while our model doubts the margin of the GOP polls, it doesn’t think that Seals is going to cruise either. Seals needs to win Lake County by more than he loses the Cook Suburbs by.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Dold 50.3-Seals 49.7
House 11
One of the best, young, most promising Republican challengers is targeting Democratic freshman Debbie Halvorson in this swing-to-slightly Republican district, and it looks like Adam Kinziger is going to sweep Halvorson out of office in this race with millions spent on either side.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Kinziger 57.5-Halvorson 42.5 Takeover
House 12
Jerry Costello (D) should easily hold this seat.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Costello 62.5-Newman 37.5
House 13
Republican Rep. Judy Biggert should turn down a well-funded challenge by Democrat Scott Harper.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Biggert 68-Harper 32
House 14
Bill Foster, the Democratic 2-year Representative, is in for a close race with GOP State Sen. Randy Hultgren. Both candidates spent millions here, and this race is like so many nationwide one between a fairly generic Democrat in a slightly Democratic district that leans Republican this year. This race could easily go either way. Foster needs to win Kane County- if he does, his chances are pretty good. If Kane goes to Hultgren, then Foster has a bad problem.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Hultgren 50.4-Foster 49.6 Takeover
House 15
Tim Johnson (R) easily wins reelection here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Johnson 70-Gill 30
House 16
Donald Manzullo (R) does the same.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Manzullo 69.5-Gaulrapp 30.5
House 17
Democratic incumbent Phil Hare (D) is in the race of his life against political newcomer Robert Schilling (R). Both sides have spent heavily here, and even though Schilling is outspent, he has the resources to win the race. Ultimately, this is one of the closest races in the nation. Fulton County is a good bellwether- it’s more of a must-win for Hare than for Schilling though.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Schilling 50.35-Hare 49.65 Takeover
House 18
The youngest Congressman, GOP incumbent Aaron Schock, will easily win another term.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Schock 69-Hirner 31
House 19
GOP Representative Shimkus (R) will also win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Shimkus 72-Bagwell 28
Indiana
Senator
It was a huge mistake for U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth to get in this race, as a Democrat, in Indiana, in 2010. He’ll get trounced by mediocre Republican candidate Dan Coats, a former U.S. Senator and lobbyist, and it wouldn’t have been necessary to end the career of a promising Congressman who might have held on to his district that’s now lost for the Democrats, just to lose a Senate race by double digits.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Coats 59.5-Ellsworth 41.5 Takeover
House 01
Pete Visclosky (D) is easily holding his own here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Visclosky 63.5-Levya36.5
House 02
Joe Donnelly, a sophomore Democrat, is facing a strong challenge by GOP candidate Jackie Walorski, a member of the GOP State House Leadership. This is a swing district, and a big, red target for the GOP. Donnelly has been holding up well so far, but this race is really damn close. Elkhart County could prove to be a bellwether here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Donnelly 50.7-Walorski 49.3
House 03
Marlin Stutzman, who just narrowly lost the Senate Primary against Dan Coats, is running well ahead of Democratic 2008 candidate Thomas Hayhurst, who did well in 2008, but is just killed by the climate.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Stutzman 60-Hayhurst 40
House 04
Todd Rokita (R) will easily win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Rokita 71-Sanders 29
House 05
Just like his colleague Dan Burton.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Burton 75-Crawford 25
House 06
Mike Pence will also win and probably play an important role in the GOP House leadership in 2011.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Pence 72.5-Walsh 27.5
House 07
Indianapolis will still vote Democratic, and Andre Carson will still be a Democratic Congressman in 2011.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Carson 57-Scott 43
House 08
U.S. Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) left this seat behind to start a quixotic Senate campaign- and Democratic candidate William Trent Van Haaften won’t even come close to hold the seat against GOP candidate Larry Bucshon.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Bucshon 62.5-Van Haaften 37.5 Takeover
UPDATE: Vigo County is with 25% reporting breaking by about 10% for Bucshon. If Van Haaften wanted to win, he’d have to win in Vigo, so this doesn’t look good.
House 09
Yes, Baron Hill (D) is a Blue Dog Democrat, but he is also an Obama supporter- he endorsed Obama in this Clintonian district before the Indiana primary, and he cast lots of tough votes for the President’s agenda in the last Congress. He’s now paying for this in this Republican district by being in a very close race with GOP candidate Todd Young. Both sides have been spending about $3 million on this race, and it could really go either way tonight. Clark and Harrison are Counties you could watch as bellwethers for this race.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Todd Young 50.25-Baron Hill 49.75 Takeover
Kansas
Senator
The appointment of popular Democratic Governor Kathleen Sebelius to HHS Secretary really shook up Kansas politics- but ironically only on the GOP side. Senator Sam Brownback (R) retired to run for Governor, and two of the three Republican U.S. Reps retired to run for Senate, with Rep. Jerry Moran (R-KS01) defeating the more conservative Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-KS04) in the primary.
Still, with the primaries being over, the dust has settled over Kansas and the GOP is triumphing everywhere.
Jerry Moran is poised to beat token Democrat Lisa Johnston and become the new Kansas Junior Senator.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Moran 71.5-Johnston 29.5
Governor
Former U.S. Senator Sam Brownback will defeat Democratic State Senator Tom Holland handily to become Kansas’s new Governor.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Brownback 59-Holland 41
House 01
Republican Tim Huelskamp will easily beat Democrat Alan Jilka to succeed the future Senator and until-now Congressman Jerry Moran.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Huelskamp 68-Jilka 32
House 02
Republican freshman (she unseat a Democrat in 2008!) Lynn Jenkins will handily win against Democratic challenger Cheryl Hudspeth.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Jenkins 67.5-Hudspeth 32.5
House 03
GOP State Representative Kevin Yoder will defeat the wife of retiring Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore, Stephene.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Yoder 63-Moore 37 Takeover
House 04
Raj Goyle is a really good Democratic challenger- he raised millions for a Kansas congressional race, is charismatic and popular. Yet, that’s not enough to win a Republican open seat in Kansas in 2010.
GOP candidate Mike Pompeo will beat Goyle to succeed outgoing Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R).
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Pompeo 55-Goyle 45.
Kentucky
Senator
While Democrats might have had a chance to defeat unpopular GOP Senator Jim Bunning, he retired and made way for Ron Paul’s son Rand, who beat GOP Secretary of State Trey Grayson in the primary. Paul faces Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway, who beat Democratic Lt. Gov. Mongiardo in the primary. Paul has led throughout the campaign, but for most of the summer not by a decisive margin- until Conway aired an unfortunate ad attacking Paul on his religious views during his college days. The ad backfired hugely and now Conway is poised to lose to Paul.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Paul 54-Conway 46.
House 01
Ed Whitfield (R) will easily retain his seat.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Whitfield 73.5-Hatchett 26.5
House 02
Brett Guthrie (R) is also winning.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Guthrie 70-Marksberry 30.
House 03
John Yarmuth (D) was to be a prime target for the GOP this cycle, but the campaign of his opponent Todd Lally has never really caught fire. If Yarmuth loses here, it’s an early indicator of the House Democrats facing horrible losses- and we’re not just talking about House Control here, if Yarmuth loses, the Republicans could conceivably get a majority as big as the Democratic one now.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Yarmuth 58-Lally 42.
House 04
Geoff Davis (R) will easily win here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Davis 73-Waltz 27
House 05
Hal Rogers (R) is also easily winning.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Rogers 76-Holbert 24
House 06
In the top Kentucky race, Ben Chandler (D) is in a race against Republican Andy Barr, but polls diverge on how close it is. Some public polls and Chandler’s internals have him leading by double digits, some other public polls and Barr’s internals have this as a dead heat. Our model tends to side with the Barr side a bit more than with the Chandler side, but still has Chandler ahead by a slight margin. Watch out for Fayette County goes, because the winner of Fayette could very well be the next Congressman of KY-06.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Chandler 52-Barr 48
Louisiana
Senator
David Vitter wasn’t really hurt by the diaper scandal here, and a popular GOP senator beats a popular Democratic Congressman in Louisiana in 2010 every time. Melancon should have, much like Ellsworth, tried to keep his seat in the Dem column instead of trying to ascend to the Senate in a quixotic move.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Vitter 56.5-Melancon 43.5
House 01
Steve Scalise (R) is easily winning here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Scalise 77-Katz 23
House 02
Joseph Cao (R) managed to sneak into this seat that should really be held by a Democrat by narrowly defeating corrupt Democrat Bill Jefferson in a run-off election in 2008. But this is New Orleans, and Cao won’t be able to defy the district’s leans, despite being personally popular. Also, a racial component plays in here, with an African-American Democrat running against a Vietnamese Republican in this 57%African-American district.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Richmond 56-Cao 44 Takeover
House 03
Charlie Melancon (D) retired to get beat by Sen. Vitter, and Democrat Ravi Sangisetty won’t be able to keep the seat blue against Republican Jeff Landry.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Landry 65-Sangisetty 35.
House 04
John Fleming (R) wins reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Fleming 67.5-Melville 32.5
House 05
Rodney Alexander (R) is running unopposed.
House 06
Bill Cassidy (R) is beating his opposition to retain his seat.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Cassidy 68.5-McDonald 31.5
House 07
Charles Boustany (R) is running unopposed.
Massachusetts
For quite some time it looked like Gov. Deval Patrick (D) would share the fate of Jon Corzine in NJ and be a Democratic governor in a blue state who is not reelected. But his approval ratings rebounded slightly, and his Republican opponent, Charlie Baker, is not running a strong campaign. At the same time, Independent Tim Cahill is drawing a bit more support from Baker than from Patrick, but Cahill’s campaign is collapsing and so is his vote share. Also, Green Party candidate Jill Stein is drawing more votes from Patrick than from Baker, so the third-party candidates cancel each other out. Patrick isn’t out of the woods, but he’s most likely ahead of Baker.
Stochastic Democracy Projection (ignoring Cahill and Stein): Patrick 52.5-Baker 47.5
House 01
John Olver (D) easily wins reelection. All Massachusetts incumbents are Democrats right now.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Olver 66-Gun 34
House 02
Richard Neal (D) easily wins here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Neal 64-Wesley 36
House 03
Jim McGovern (D) easily wins here.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: McGovern 64-Lamb 36
House 04
Barney Frank (D) faces a spirited challenge by Republican Sean Bielat, but this district is too Democratic to go red.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Frank 58-Bielat 42
House 05
Niki Tsongas isn’t the strongest Democratic incumbent, but she will still easily win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Tsongas 60.5-Golnik 39.5
House 06
John Tierney (D) is in a similar position to Frank- he has a strong challenger in Bill Hudak, but the seat is too Democratic to be in serious peril.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Tierney 62-Hudak 38
House 07
Ed Markey, meanwhile, will cruise to reelection against token opposition.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Markey 67-Dembrowski 33
House 08
Mike Capuano (D) is running unopposed, despite losing the 2009 Senate Primary against Martha Coakley.
House 09
After beating back a primary challenge from netroots candidate Mac D’Alessandro, Stephen Lynch will cruise to victory.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Lynch 64.5-Harrison 35.5
House 10
This seat, where Democratic Rep. Bill Delahunt retires, is the only shot for Republicans to pick up a seat in Massachusetts . The big names have been campaigning here: Scott Brown and Mitt Romney for Republican Jeff Perry, Joe Biden and Vicki Kennedy for Democrat Bill Keating. Perry has been hammered by Keating for his conduct as a Police Officer, witnessing an illegal strip search of a 14-year old girl without doing anything. Keating probably has a slight lead, but not large enough to lean back.
Stochastic Democracy Projection: Keating 52-Perry 48.
Maryland
Senator
No real race here. Senator Barbara Mikulski (D) is easily winning reelection against Republican self-funder and nobody Eric Wargotz.
Stochastic Democracy forecast: Mikulski 63-Wargotz 37
Governor
In the second rematch of two former Governors (the second being Culver vs. Branstad in Iowa) incumbent Democrat Martin O’Malley faces Republican former Governor Bob Ehrlich.
The two races have gone in two totally different directions though: While Branstad is blasting Culver out of the water, O’Malley has pulled away from Ehrlich after being locked in a tight race for most of the summer. Unless the night goes horribly wrong for Democrats, O’Malley will be reelected quite handily.
Stochastic Democracy forecast: O’Malley 54.5-Ehrlich 45.5
House 01
Frank Kratovil (D) will likely lose his reelection bid against Republican Andy Harris, his 2008 opponent, who lost his 2008 bid only because after having ousted incumbent Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in the primary, Gilchrest endorsed Kratovil. He has done the same this year, but so far Gilchrest’s endorsement hasn’t had any effect. Kratovil needs to be within 5 points in Anne Arundel. If he isn’t, he’ll have a very hard path to victory.
Stochastic Democracy forecast: Harris 52.5-Kratovil 47.5 Takeover
House 02
Dutch Ruppersberger (D) easily wins reelection.
Stochastic Democracy forecast: Ruppersberger 64-Cardarelli 36
House 03
John Sarbanes (D) easily wins reelection.
Stochastic Democracy forecast: Sarbanes 62-William 38
House 04
Donna Edwards (D) easily wins reelection.
Stochastic Democracy forecast: Edwards 77-Broadus 23
House 05
Steny Hoyer (D) easily wins reelection.
Stochastic Democracy forecast: Hoyer 66-Lollar 44
House 06
Roscoe Bartlett (R) easily wins reelection.
Stochastic Democracy forecast: Bartlett 71.5-Duck 28.5
House 07
Elijah Cummings (D) easily wins reelection.
Stochastic Democracy forecast: Cummings 73-Mirabile 27
House 08
Chris Van Hollen (D) easily wins reelection.
Stochastic Democracy forecast: Van Hollen 70-Philips 30
Maine
Governor
For most of the summer this race looked like an easy pick-up for Tea Party candidate Paul LePage (GOP), beating Democrat Libby Mitchell easily. Then, LePage had a number of gaffes and Mitchell surged briefly into a tie, just to fall back to a double-digit deficit afterwards. At that point, the Independent candidate in the race, liberal Eliot Cutler, started to surge and has now caught up with Mitchell. Still, both candidates trail LePage and most likely LePage will win today.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: We really don’t know, this race is so volatile. We have to make a projection though, and it is LePage 44, Mitchell 24, Cutler 32.
House 01
Democratic freshman Chellie Pingree is in an unexpectedly close race against Republican Dean Scontras. Pingree led solidly for most of the summer, but Scontras surged during the last month and has now almost caught up with Pingree. Will he win? If Scontras was to win, he’d have to keep Augusta within 5 points or so, so watch out for that.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Pingree 53.5-Scontras 47.5
House 02
Mike Michaud also faces a closer-than-expected election against Jason Levesque, but it is not as dramatic as in the Pingree-Scontras race. Michaud should still win by double digits. If this race is close and Pingree loses, it’s an early indicator of a terrible night for Democrats.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Michaud 56.5-Levesque 43.5
Michigan
Governor
This is no close race, even though Pres. Obama won Michigan handily in the 2008 Presidential Election, the state has soured on Democrats because of the record-high unemployment. Governor Granholm, retiring, is incredibly unpopular, and voters won’t replace her with a fellow Democrat.
Moderate Republican and ‘tough nerd’ Rick Snyder leads Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero by double digits in this race.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Snyder 60-Bernero 40
House 01
This race to replace retiring Democrat Bart Stupak favors the Republican, surgeon Dan Benishek, over Democratic State Rep Gary McDowell. This race is not totally uncompetitive, and there’s an outside chance that McDowell pulls off an upset here, but with the Democrat getting trounced 60-40 statewide on the gubernatorial ticket it will be really hard for McDowell to win here.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Benishek 55.5-McDowell 45.5 Takeover
House 02
Bill Huizenga (R) will easily beat Democrat Fred Johnson III to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who ran unsuccessfully in the gubernatorial primary.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Huizenga 67-Johnson 33
House 03
Justin Amash (R) is favored to replace ret. Rep. Vernon Ehlers (R) , a conservative, but not extreme Republican.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Amash 60-Miles 40
House 04
Dave Camp (R) will easily be reelected.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Camp 69-Campbell 31
House 05
Dale Kildee, another liberal Democratic backbencher, will win an 18th term in Congress.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Kildee 65-Kupiec 35
House 06
Fred Upton (R) will be reelected. Yes, easily.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Upton 67-Cooney 33
House 07
Mark Schauer (D), a freshman, is facing the man he narrowly unseated in 2008 in this heavily contested Congressional election- Tim Walberg. Schauer is fairly well-liked in the district though, and he has been able to almost keep up with his 2008 performance in the polls-almost. Walberg, Schauer, and Independent groups have spent $10 million combined here.
Watch out for Eaton County, which has mirrored the districtwide election result of their first duel fairly well and has enough votes in it to be significant- I would never bank on bellwethers with 800 votes or so in them, because they tend to be more volatile than larger counties.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Walberg 51-Schauer 49 Takeover
House 08
Mike Rogers (R) is easily beating Lance Enderle, who came on the ballot only after the initial Dem nominee withdrew his bid. It won’t matter.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Rogers 67-Enderle 33
House 09
In the second close race in Michigan, Democratic Freshman Gary Peters is fighting for his political life against Republican nominee Rocky Raczkowski. Raczkowski is a somewhat lower-profile challenger than Walberg, but still, expenses in this race have totaled almost $6 million. The result is virtually the same as in MI-07- a very small lead for the Republican. All of the district is in Oakland County, so no bellwethers here.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Raczkowski 51-Peters 49. Takeover
House 10
Candice Miller (R) easily wins reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Miller 71-Yanez 29
House 11
Thaddeus McCotter (R) will also win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: McCotter 64.5-Mosher 35.5
House 12
Sander Levin, the older brother of Sen. Carl Levin, will easily win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Levin 66-Volaric 34
House 13
Democratic State Sen. Hansen Clarke, who defeated Democratic Congresswoman Carolyn Kilpatrick in the primary, has the hard part of getting elected to Congress finished.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Clarke 74.5-Hauler 26.5
House 14
If Democratic Rep. John Conyers loses his seat, the Democratic Caucus will probably be reduced to 20 or 25 members.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Conyers 77.5-Ukrainec 22.5
House 15
John Dingell, running for a 29th term after having inherited the seat from his father, a 11-term Congressman from 1933-1955, faces surprisingly strong resistance from Republican Rob Steele this time. But it won’t be enough to unseat the veteran.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Dingell 57-Steele 43
Minnesota
Governor
The Democrats landed a very high-profile candidate here with former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton. The Republican Party candidate is State Rep. Tom Emmer, and the candidate from the relatively credible Independence Party is the CoS of former Sen. Durenberger, Tom Horner.
Dayton maintained a lead throughout the campaign, and will most likely win on election day.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast (two-way vote for Dayton and Emmer): Dayton 54-Emmer 46.
House 01
Tim Walz is a Democratic Sophomore in a swing district who should be in a lot of trouble, looking at other Democrats in a comparable situation. But Walz has hold his own in the polls, and is strongly favored to beat Republican Randy Demmer.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Walz 57.5-Demmer 42.5
House 02
John Kline (R) is waltzing to reelection here.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Kline 67-Madore 33
House 03
So is neighboring Rep. Erik Paulsen (R).
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Paulsen 67-Meffert 33
House 04
Betty McCollum (D) isn’t in trouble either.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: McCollum 64-Collett 36
House 05
Keith Ellison (D) can afford to go to bed early on election eve.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Ellison 70.5-Demos 29.5
House 06
Conservative Tea Party icon Michele Bachmann (R) is winning her race against Democrat Tarryl Clark. The polarizing nature of the race has caused activists on both sides to funnel millions to the candidates- Bachmann raised well over $10 million, Clark over $4 million- but the race isn’t really close.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Bachmann 56-Clark 44
House 07
Collin Peterson (D) is cruising here.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Peterson 67-Byberg 33
House 08
James Oberstar (D) is facing a strong challenge by Republican Chip Cravaack in his bid for a 19th term.
But the district is very Democratic- too Democratic to vote for a Republican over an incumbent Democrat, even in this cycle. If Cravack keeps Oberstar below 60% in St.Louis County though, where the Dems get most of their votes from, be worried. If Oberstar is unseated, or Cravack keeps him to 2-3 points, we could be looking at Democratic losses of 75 seats or more.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Oberstar 54.5-Cravaack 45.5
Missouri
Senator
When Democrats managed to recruit popular SoS Robin Carnahan for the Senate race to succeed retiring Republican Senator Bond, they had high hopes- Carnahan was regarded a strong challenger, much stronger than Republican candidate Roy Blunt, who is the very definition of a DC insider in an outsider cycle. Yet, Carnahan’s campaign never really caught fire, and while she led Blunt throughout 2009, Blunt overtook her in January 2010 and never looked back. This race will stay in Republican hands.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Blunt 54-Carnahan 46
House 01
Lacy Clay (D) is easily winning reelection in this St.Louis district.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Clay 73-Hamlin 27
House 02
The same is true for Todd Akin (R), running in this district to the West and Northwest of St. Louis.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Akin 71.5-Lieber 28.5
House 03
Robin Carnahan’s brother Russ will be reelected to the Third Congressional District of Missouri, in the South of the St. Louis Metropolitan Area, despite a well-funded challenge by Republican Ed Martin.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Carnahan 58-Martin 42
House 04
Democratic Veteran Representative and Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, Ike Skelton, faces a very strong challenge by Republican Vicki Hartzler. Skelton has been supported strongly by the military industry and was therefore able to outspent Hartzler. Still, this race is tight, and when you see counties like Vernon, LaClede, Morgan going to Hartzler, then Skelton is probably on the verge of defeat.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Skelton 53-Hartzler 47
House 05
Kansas City will vote to retain Emmanuel Cleaver (D) to Congress.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Cleaver 59-Turk 41
House 06
Sam Graves (R) will easily be reelected here.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Graves 70-Hylton 30
House 07
The same is true for Billy Long (R).
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Long 71-Eckersley 29
House 08
And for Jo Ann Emerson (R).
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Emerson 79-Sowers 21.
Mississippi
House 01
Another conservative House Democrat, Travis Childers, is facing a hard challenge from Republican Alan Nunnelee. While Childers is not doing as bad as other Southern Democrats like Boyd or Marshall, he’s still likely to lose. If Childers is able to hold on to Counties like Lee, Lowndes and Union, all of which are must-wins for him, this race could get close though.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Nunnelee 53.5-Childers 46.5 Takeover
House 02
Republican internal polls show a close race between Bernie Thompson, the Democratic 9-term Congressman in this 66% African-American seat, and Bill Marcy, his underfunded Republican challenger. If this is true, the Democrats can kiss pretty much every Southern Congressman good-bye, but more likely than not Republicans are exaggerating.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Thompson 54- Marcy 46
House 03
Gregg Harper (R) will easily win reelection against Democrat Joel Gill, who has exactly $73 Cash on Hand. Maybe Gill can go and eat a nice steak from that after election eve, because he won’t need it for anything else.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Harper 73.5-Gill 26.5
House 04
Another conservative Democrat in a white-majority district, Gene Taylor, is locked in a close race with Republican Steve Palazzo here. Taylor has tried to distance himself from Pelosi and (literally) California hippies in his ads, and he survived 1994. Still, the climate tops many, many things this year, and so this race is a true Toss-Up. As Taylor has regularly won with more than 75% of the vote, it’s hard to say which parts of the district will vote for or against him in a 50-50 race- the dynamics are completely different there.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Taylor 51.5-Palazzo 48.5
Montana
House 01
I could write pages and pages about this race, having been fairly engaged there, but to be fair, it’s not different from all the other races where Republican incumbents annihilate Democratic challengers.
Denny Rehberg (R) will be easily reelected to the Montana at-Large seat with his best performance since his first election in 2000, receiving a mandate and momentum to challenge Senator Jon Tester in 2012, which is widely expected.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Denny Rehberg 71.5-Dennis McDonald (D) 28.5
North Carolina
Senate
Until Summer 2010 Republican Senator Richard Burr had looked vulnerable, as if he might be the lone Republican Senator to be unseated in a generally good year for Republicans. Lots of North Carolinians didn’t have a strong opinion about him or didn’t even know him, costing him his incumbency advantage. Then, Burr aired a lot of ads, defining himself as a very conservative but honest Senator before his opponent, Democrat Elaine Marshall, had the chance to strike back, and the race was essentially over. Burr will return to Washington DC, with a double digit victory.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Burr 56.5-Marshall 43.5
House 01
Democratic Congressman J.K. Butterfield will win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Butterfield 63-Woolard 37
House 02
Democratic Veteran Congressman Bob Etheridge was not generally regarded vulnerable in 2009, until he attacked two obnoxious teenagers trying to play yellow-press journalist on him. This gaffe has cost him his lead, and may cost him his Congressional seat- the beneficiary is Republican candidate Renee Ellmers. If Ellmers wants to beat Etheridge, her path probably goes through winning Johnson County by a significant margin and keeping Etheridge from running up huge margins in Wake County.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Etheridge 50.65-Ellmers 49.35
House 03
Walter Jones (R) is on route to reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Jones 74.5-Rouse 25.5
House 04
Despite Republican internal polling claiming that there’s a real race here, and even putting the Republican candidate Lawson in the lead, Democratic Congressman David Price should win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Price 54.5-Lawson 45.5
House 05
Virginia Foxx (R) is winning.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Foxx 71.5-Kennedy 28.5
House 06
So is Howard Coble (R).
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Coble 76-Turner 24
House 07
Mike McIntyre (D), the 7-term Democratic Congressman, faces his hardest election yet against Republican candidate Ilario Pantano. About $2.5 million was spent here jointly, but polling has looked not terrible for McIntyre. Still, there’s not enough information to say that McIntyre is definitely winning- probably he is, but not certainly. We’ll know more when New Hanover County reports, which should be a good bellwether for the seat. Another important variable is turnout in African-American Robeson County.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: McIntyre 52-Pantano 48
House 08
Larry Kissell (D) missed out on the chance of facing polarizing Tea Party candidate Tim D’Annunzio in the General Election: D’Annunzio lost the primary run-off to Harold Johnson, who has, despite the best efforts of labor unions like the NEA and Kissell, scratched away at Kissell’s lead point for point.
Kissell is probably still ahead, but not by much. When you see him behind in Union County, Kissell has lots to worry about.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Kissell 53-Johnson 47
House 09
Sue Myrick (R) is easily winning reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Myrick 72-Doctor 28
House 10
Patrick McHenry (R) will do the same as Myrick.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: McHenry 72-Gregory 28
House 11
Democrat Heath Schuler (D) faces a strong challenge from Jeff Miller and allied special interests who have spent a million against Schuler. Still, Schuler is personally popular and favored to win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Schuler 54.5-Miller 45.5
House 12
Mel Watt (D) will easily win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Watt 66-Dority 34
House 13
Brad Miller (D) will easily win reelection as well.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Miller 60.5-Randall 39.5
North Dakota
Senator
The second Senator Dorgan chose to retire it was clear that this would be one of the most lopsided Senate races in the nation. Democrat Tracy Potter won’t be able to come even within 25 points of ultra-popular Governor Hoeven.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Hoeven 72.5-Potter 27.5 Takeover
House 01
In a cheap media-market like North Dakota’s, spending well over $6 million is an insane amount, yet that’s what Democratic Representative Earl Pomeroy and his challenger, Republican Rick Berg, have spent in this district (combined with third-party spending).
Rasmussen has had Pomeroy behind for the whole year, and no one really put out something convincing to the contrary. A must-win county for Pomeroy is Cass, and it would be really better if he could pull out a 8-10 point margin there.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Berg 51.5-Pomeroy 48.5 Takeover
Nebraska
Governor
Yes, there really is a gubernatorial race going on in Nebraska, and no, Governor Heineman is not unopposed. He might as well be though, it doesn’t make a difference.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Heineman 72-Meister 28
House 01
Republican Congressman Jeff Fortenberry will easily get reelected.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Fortenberry 74.5-Harper 25.5
House 02
Lee Terry almost was knocked off in 2008 when Obama was doing fairly well in Nebraska and Terry’s Omaha district. He survived though, and even though his Democratic challenger Tom White is running a good, well-funded campaign, no GOP incumbent who survived 2008 will probably be unseated this cycle.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Terry 58.5-White 41.5
House 03
Adrian Smith (R) will be easily reelected, by one of the biggest margins of the whole Congress.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Smith 81.5-Davis 18.5
New Hampshire
Senator
Republican SoS Kelly Ayotte will be handily elected to succeed retiring GOP Senator Judd Gregg, defeating U.S. Congressman Paul Hodes, who ran a boring, middling, unappealing campaign. Not that the NH Dems could have run anyone better- Rep. Shea-Porter is just as boring as Hodes. Still, this is a race that might have been close, but isn’t now.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Ayotte 55.5-Hodes 44.5
Governor
John Lynch is a popular Governor, and even though some polls had the race between him and his Republican opponent John Stevens within the margin of error, that’s not the consensus. Lynch should win fairly easily, and if he doesn’t, then the Dems throughout all of New England are.. screwed- Pingree, Contreras, Shea-Porter, Blumenthal, Malloy, Kuster, Cicciline and all the others- if Lynch goes down, so do most of them.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Lynch 56-Stephens 44
House 01
Carol Shea-Porter (D), the Democratic incumbent, is pretty unpopular. She barely won reelection in the GOOD cycle of 2008, and she’s losing by double digits against former Manchester mayor Frank Guinta now. There’s no shortage of polling, but everyone agrees: Shea-Porter will be one of the first Democratic losses today.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Guinta 54.5-Shea-Porter 45.5 Takeover
House 02
Surprisingly, Democratic candidate Ann Kuster is running much, much stronger than Shea-Porter in the neighboring district, vying with former U.S. Rep. Charlie Bass to replace outgoing Rep. Hodes in this district. Kuster won the primary with surprising ease, while Bass struggling to get the party united behind him- and University of New Hampshire polls have her actually leading Bass, in a major upset. Our model rates this an ultra-close race, with Kuster narrowly ahead. One good bellwether here could be Allenstown.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Kuster 50.6-Bass 49.4
New Jersey
House 01
Democratic Representative Robert Andrews will win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Andrews 72-Glading 28
House 02
Frank LoBiondo (R) will also win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: LoBiondo 71-Stein 29
House 03
John Adler, the Democratic freshman who narrowly won an open-seat race here in 2008, is now on the target list for the Republicans. Adler is not especially strongly profiled, so he’s essentially running as a generic Democrat in a swing district in 2010, which is not good. On the other side, Adler is a fundraising machine and outraised his GOP opponent, Jon Runyan, 4:1- not even counting outside spending, where Adler has a 3:2 advantage. The race is, according to the polls and according to our model, on knife’s edge, but Adler had $1.2 million CoH left after the October 13 reporting period. Is he feeling safe enough to keep the money for 2012, has he been burning through it in the remaining three weeks, or is he just stupid enough to lose reelection with $1 million unspent campaign money in his account? We don’t know, but what we do know is that our model ranks this as a bona fide Toss-Up, with Runyan leading by the narrowest of margins. County-wise, Adler looks good if his deficit in Ocean County is smaller than or equal to his surplus in Burlington.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Runyan 50.3-Adler 49.7
House 04
Christopher Smith (R) is strongly favored here.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Smith 71.5-Kleinhendler 28.5
House 05
Scott Garrett (R) will be reelected handily.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Garrett 68.5-Theise 31.5
House 06
Frank Pallone (D) is not entirely safe… but almost. It would be very surprising if he was even held to single digits by Anna Little, the Republican.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Pallone 58.5-Little 41.5
House 07
Leonard Lance (R) will win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Lance 63.5-Potosnak 36.5
House 08
Bill Pascrell (D) is totally safe here.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Pascrell 64-Straten 36
House 09
Steve Rothman (D) is also safe.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Rothman 62.5-Agosta 37.5
House 10
Donald Payne (D) will be reelected.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Payne 76-Alonso 24
House 11
Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) can also be absolutely assured of his reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Frelinghuysen 70-Herbert 30
House 12
Rush Holt (D) is not entirely safe, but it would take a pretty major upset and a very, very good night for Republicans to unseat him or come close to doing so.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Holt 57-Sipprelle 43
House 13
Albio Sires (D) will win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Sires 70-Dwyer 30
New Mexico
Governor
Republican District Attorney Susana Martinez will easily beat Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish in the race to succeed Bill Richardson as New Mexico Governor. Denish had actually led Martinez by 15 points when the campaign began, but that margin melted away point by point, and by July Martinez was even and then ahead of Denish, who is possibly harmed by the connection to the unpopular Richardson administration.
Either way, Martinez will be the next New Mexico Governor. By the way, if you’re wondering why we treat a House campaign with a similar spread to this race as basically still semi-competitive and this race as completely over, it is because Gubernatorial and Senatorial races are both usually polled much more often than House races- therefore the margin of error of our projections here is much smaller.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Martinez 54-Denish 46.
House 01
Freshman Martin Heinrich (D) is, like most Democrats from the classes of 2006 and 2008, in a lot of trouble: He’s facing a close reelection campaign with Jon Barela, a Republican entrepreneur. This is a race that’s been heavily influenced by outside spending both pro-Heinrich and pro-Barela: Both sides benefited from about $1 million IE’s in their favor while Heinrich spent another $2 million- Barela $880,000. The polls in this district have been close, but they suggest that Heinrich has a small advantage. So small though, that this race depended mostly on the GOTV in the last 72 hours.
Bellwether-wise, 90% of the district’s votes are in Bernarillo County, so there’s not much sense in looking at anything beyond that.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Heinrich 50.5-Barela 49.5
House 02
Freshman Democrat Harry Teague faces, like Rep. Schauer in Michigan, the man who held this district prior to the 2008 election. The difference is that Republican Steve Pearce is undefeated here- he retired to run for Senate and was crushed by now-Senator Udall in the General Election.
Now Pearce is back in his old neighborhood and one of the most closely watched races in the country ensued: Both sides raised and spend about $2 million dollar each, in addition to almost another $2 million dollar in outside group spending.
Teague has trailed, despite or maybe because of his vote against Health Care Reform, throughout the campaign, and has showed no signs of a last-minute surge. If Teague wants to pull this out, he needs a high-single digit, or better double digit lead in Santa Ana County as the bare minimum.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Pearce 52.2-Teague 47.8 Takeover
House 03
Ben Ray Lujan is the one New Mexico Democrat who isn’t in a lot of trouble: While his margin of victory won’t be overwhelming, he will at least win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Lujan 56-Mullins 44
Nevada
Senator
In one of the biggest races in the country, Republican Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle is trying to unseat Democratic Senate Majority Leader, Senator Harry Reid. While Reid is very unpopular and should be ripe for picking, Angle has made the race very hard for herself with a series of gaffes and unpopular policy stances. Hypotheticals show that primary loser Danny Tarkanian would easily defeat Reid by double digits, but it’s Angle vs. Reid and with that one of the most important races of the night. And for good reason: The race is the closest race in the country. Will the GOTV machine of Sen. Reid carry the day, or will the enthusiastic Tea Partiers flood to the polls and sweep Sharron Angle into office? We’ll find out tonight.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Angle 50.05-Reid 49.95. Takeover
Governor
Harry Reid’s son Rory is just as unpopular as his Dad, but he has the bad luck of running against a pretty popular Republican. Brian Sandoval would be the first Hispanic governor of Nevada, if elected, or better, he will be the first Hispanic governor of Nevada in two months, because he’s easily disposing of the younger Reid.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Sandoval 58-Reid 42
House 01
Shelley Berkley (D) will easily be reelected.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Berkley 64-Wegner 36
House 02
Dean Heller (R) will be reelected just as handily as Berkley.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Heller 67-Price 33
House 03
Dina Titus has run as a relatively progressive Democrat in this Vegas suburb district, that leans slightly to the right. The seat has attracted a huge number of outside groups, with unions and national Democratic groups spending $2.6 million against GOP candidate Denny Heck and Republican group spending $1.9 million against Rep. Titus. In addition, Titus spent another $2.2 million raised by herself, to just below $1 million for Heck. The candidates traded the lead back and forth throughout the campaign, but lately Heck seems to have pulled away to a fairly stable lead. The whole district is in Clark County, so no bellwether-watching here.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Heck 52-Titus 48 Takeover
New York
Senator (full term)
In a result that’s not really a shocker, Senator Chuck Schumer will be reelected to another term.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Schumer 66.5-Townsend 33.5
Senator (special election)
Former U.S. Representative and appointed Senator Kirsten Gillibrand will win a two-year-term in her own right today, after a relatively weak start of her campaign she managed- with the help of the White House- to scare away primary challengers from the left and Republicans Gov. Pataki and Mayor Giuliani from the right, so that she will now cruise to election about has-been U.S. Rep. Joe DioGuardi.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Gillibrand 62.5-DioGuardi 37.5
Governor
As was clear for most of the year, except for a period with a short, but strong primary bounce for GOP candidate Carl Paladino, New York Attorney General Mario Cuomo will succeed retiring (not entirely voluntarily) Governor David Paterson.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Cuomo 65.5-Paladino 34.5
House 01
Rep. Tim Bishop (D) will win reelection against Republican Randy Altschuler, who would have been the second Jewish House Republican, if elected. However, he probably won’t be elected- if he is, the night will be huge, huge, huge for the GOP.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Bishop 56.5-Altschuler 43.5
House 02
Steve Israel (D) easily wins.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Israel 60-Gomez 40
House 03
So does Peter King (R), one of the last New York Republicans. Unless otherwise mentioned, all New York Representatives are assumed to be Democrats though.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: King 69.5-Kudler 31.5
House 04
Carolyn McCarthy faces a surprisingly close challenge from Republican Francis Becker, but unless the GOP picks up north of 75 seats, McCarthy should be safe.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: McCarthy 54.5-Becker 45.5
House 05
Gary Ackerman is safe.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Ackerman 65-Milano 35
House 06
Gregory Meeks is even safer.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Meeks 77.5-Taub 22.5
House 07
Joe Crowley is another invulnerable NYC-area Democrat. The GOP deserves credit for fielding candidates in all these districts though.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Crowley 74.5-Reynolds 25.5
House 08
Jerrold Nadler is safe.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Nadler 71-Kone 29
House 09
Anthony Weiner is also safe.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Weiner 62-Turner 38
House 10
Edolphus Towns is also safe.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Towns 82-Muniz 18
House 11
Yvette Clarke is also safe, just like the other NYC Dems.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Clarke 82-Carr 18
House 12
Nydia Velázquez is unopposed.
House 13
Michael MacMahon should be one of the more endangered Democrats. But the local GOP in his district on Long Island is very disorganized, and has failed to fully get behind one strong candidate. Therefore, barring a huge upset, MacMahon wins.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: MacMahon 57-Grimm 43
House 14
Carolyn Maloney is perfectly safe.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Maloney 73-Brumberg 27
House 15
Charlie Rangel is, now that he has survived the Democratic Primary, safe.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Rangel 82, Faulkner 18
House 16
José Serrano might have the biggest margin of victory nationwide in this district with 2% White population.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Serrano 86-Della Vella 14
House 17
Eliot Engel is just another safe Democrat.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Engel 70-Mele 30
House 18
So is Nita Lowey.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Lowey 62.5-Russell 37.5
House 19
Now we’re leaving NYC and coming to Upstate NY- and suddenly the Democrats aren’t safe anymore. After narrowly unseating the incumbent Republican in 2006 and winning easily in 2008, John Hall is once more in a neck-on-neck race with a Republican- his challenger Nan Hayworth.
All polls here had the race within the margin of error, but accounting for House Effects and such Hall is narrowly ahead in our model. Watch out for Orange County- it has similar political leanings as the district as a whole.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Hall 50.7-Hayworth 49.3
House 20
Scott Murphy, who won the special election to replace Kirsten Gillibrand when she was appointed to fill Hillary Clinton’s Senate Seat, is now running for a full-term. He’s proving to be a fundraising monster, having raised way more than $4 million during this cycle, outraising his GOP opponent Chris Gibson more than 3:1. He needs every single dollar, as outside groups have targeted him and spent more than $1.5 million dollars on negative ads against him- and it seems to pay off, as Murphy seems to be collapsing in the polls after leading for most of the cycle. Our model isn’t sure if it should buy the instant collapse of Murphy’s campaign without any outside event leading to it, and treats the race as a toss-up. Watch for Rensellaer County, it is usually within 1 or 2 points of the district as a whole.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Gibson 50.7-Murphy 49.3 Takeover
House 21
Paul Tonko is easily retaining his seat.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Tonko 60-Danz 40.
House 22
Republican internal polls claimed that Maurice Hinchey was only in a tie with his Republican challenger George Phillips- Democrats rebuffed that with their own internals, showing a 20-point lead. Our model splits the difference, and has Hinchey ahead by 10, basically.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Hinchey 55-Phillips 45.
House 23
This race is fairly hard to predict: Initially after the primary, it was a full-fledged three-way race, with Bill Owens running as the Democrat, Matt Doheny as the Republican, and Republican Primary loser and 2009 special election second-place finisher Doug Hoffman running on the Conservative Party line. Then, however, Hoffman dropped out and endorsed Doheny. According to Siena polls, however, the problem is that Hoffman’s supporters are not paying enough attention to the media to have even heard of Hoffman’s campaign suspension and endorsement. While they’re moving to Doheny when informed by the pollster of Hoffman’s decision, they simply haven’t initially heard that Hoffman dropped out.
Therefore, the big question for Owens is: Will Hoffman siphon a significant number of votes (he’s been polling at 15%) off Doheny, or will Hoffman’s support collapse and go to Doheny in time for the election? Owens probably wins a three-way race and loses a two-way race.
Our model ignores the existence of Hoffman, but looks at the results from both Siena questions (with and without Hoffman) and projects a narrow Owens win. But this race is once again so unusual that one shouldn’t put much stock into this result. Also, Hoffman’s candidacy makes the selection of a bellwether pretty much impossible.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Owens 51.5-Doheny 48.5
House 24
A Democratic incumbent who won only 52-48 in 2008 would usually be considered dead in the water this cycle, but Michael Arcuri has somehow displayed the ability to stem the tide. He’s in the polls so far actually performing on par with 2008. Our model hedges a bit because this district really shouldn’t reelect him after his 2008 showing, but it still gives Arcuri credit for a small lead. His Republican opponent, by the way, is the same as in 2008- Richard Hanna. Therefore we can directly compare Arcuri’s showing 2010 with the 2008 results at http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTIO…
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Arcuri 51.5-Hanna 48.5
House 25
While Dan Maffei was supposed to be vulnerable in 2010, that didn’t really pan out. He has led opponent Ann Marie Buerkle consistently in the polls and will most likely win today.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Maffei 54.5-Buerkle 45.5
House 26
Republican Congressman Christopher Lee (no, not THAT Christopher Lee) is safe.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Lee 68-Fedele 32
House 27
Buffalo Democrat Brian Higgins is also safe.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Higgins 63.5-Roberto 36.5
House 28
Louise Slaughter is also absolutely safe.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast:Slaughter 68-Rowland 32
House 29
This fairly Republican district was briefly held by Eric Massa, before he resigned in disgrace after the infamous tickling incident. Republicans will take the district back with Thomas Reed, upping the number of Republican Congressmen in NY to at least 3 (plus any of Hanna, Doheny, Hayworth and Gibson).
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Reed 59-Zeller 41
Ohio
Senator
This is really not the Dem’s cycle here. Two statewide Democrats, Jennifer Brunner and Lee Fisher, were running for Senate, and both proved to be underwhelming. While Brunner had her share of enthusiastic supporters, her fundraising was ridiculous and she lost the primary to Fisher, who was competitive with GOP nominee Portman for a little while (Portman started out far behind Fisher and Brunner in 2009) until the bottom fell out of his terribly-led campaign- for some time he was behind by as much as 20 points. He rebounded slightly with the help of Governor Strickland and will probably come closer than 20 points, but not close to winning. At least Fisher honorably transferred campaign funds to the OH Democratic Party for GOTV efforts for State Legislative candidates as soon it was clear that he would lose.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Portman 55-Fisher 45
Governor
Governor Ted Strickland (D) of Ohio is understandably not very popular- as he’s presiding over a failed economy and record-high unemployment- Ohio, like the other Rust Belt states, have been hit hard by the recession. He trailed Republican John Kasich for most of the summer, but he has rebounded a bit over the last month and is now fairly close. Still, with the thousands and thousands of polling interviews conducted here every week it is pretty clear that Strickland’s small deficit is real. He will need something – good GOTV, cell phone effect, whatever- to make up the last bit of ground against Kasich.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Kasich 50.5-Strickland 49.5
House 01
Steve Driehaus, a Democratic freshman in an Ohio swing district, faces a rematch against the man he ousted in 2008, Steve Chabot. Chabot will, fueled by the strong national climate for Republicans, most likely beat Driehaus. Driehaus hasn’t led in a single poll all year- not good news for him.
Almost all votes are in Hamilton County, so that’s the number to watch.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Chabot 53-Driehaus 47 Takeover
House 02
Jean Schmidt (R) will easily win reelection here.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Schmidt 69.5-Yalamanchili 30.5
House 03
Mike Turner (R) will also win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Turner 70-Roberts 30
House 04
Jim Jordan (R) is also in no danger.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Jordan 74-Litt 26
House 05
Bob Latta (R) is also safely reelected.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Latta 71.5-Finkenbiner 28.5
House 06
Charlie Wilson (D) is in a tight race with Republican Bob Johnson. The race has been largely under the radar- no candidate has raised much money- at least compared to other close House races in the nation. We think that Wilson is still slightly ahead of Johnson, but it is a close race. Watch Columbiana County for a good bellwether.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Wilson 51-Johnson 49
House 07
Steve Austria (R) is safe.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Austria 68.5-Conner 31.5
House 08
John Boehner will certainly not face the problem of not being able to become the House Speaker because he lost his own election.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Boehner 75-Coussoule 25
House 09
Marcy Kaptur (D) will beat Nazi reenactor Rich Iott, with ease.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Kaptur 65-Iott 35
House 10
Dennis Kucinich (D) should be okay here, though his margin of victory won’t be overwhelming.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Dennis Kucinich 56.5- Peter Corrigan 43.5
House 11
Marcia Fudge (D) will win easily.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Fudge 77-Pekarek 23
House 12
Pat Tiberi (R) isn’t in the race for the House Republican with the most solid standing, but he is still going to win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Tiberi 60-Brooks 40
House 13
Betty Sutton (D) will probably win reelection, though the margin of victory will be less than overwhelming. If her opponent Tom Ganley comes within low single digits, then this spells a lot of trouble for Midwestern Democrats.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Sutton 54.5-Ganley 45.5
House 14
Steve LaTourette (R) doesn’t have much to sweat about.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: LaTourette 68-O’Neill 32
House 15
Mary Jo Kilroy (D) is one of the Democratic Representatives who have been dead in the water for quite some time, and she won’t lose her seat by just a couple of hundred votes-if Kilroy wins, we’re probably actually looking at Democrats breaking even or gaining seats in 2010. Kilroy just won by a recount in 2008, and the Republicans will have no problem getting a couple of hundreds, or thousand Kilroy voters to change their mind. Steve Stivers (R) will be the new GOP congressman from OH-15.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Stivers 54.5-Kilroy 45.5 Takeover
House 16
John Boccieri (D) is another Democratic underdog. A generic Democrat is probably down by double digits here, but by tirelessly campaigning across the district Boccieri got a bit closer than that to his GOP opponent Jim Renacci.
It’s probably not enough to win though. Watch Medina County, Boccieri needs to win there.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Renacci 53.5-Boccieri 46.5 Takeover
House 17
Tim Ryan (D) is a lock for reelection here.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Ryan 67.5-Graham 32.5
House 18
Zack Space (D) and Bob Gibbs (R) are in a really close race here. Our model doesn’t really know what to make of this race: The district should favor the Republican in a wave election like this, but the one poll in the district had the race tied- coming from a Republican pollster, so our model adjusts this to a Democratic lead. Space has easily outraised Gibbs, and his profile as a moderate to conservative Democrat (he voted against Health Care Reform) should help him here. Muskingum County is a must-win for Space, if he wins it by more than 5, all the better.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Gibbs 50.25-Space 49.75 Takeover
Oklahoma
Senator
This doesn’t really deserve to be called a race. Sen. Coburn will be reelected.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Coburn 69.5-Rogers 30.5
Governor
Just slightly less lopsided: The Gubernatorial race between Jari Askins, the Democratic Lt. Gov.,
and Mary Fallin, a GOP Congresswoman, will be won by the Republican.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Fallin 58.5-Askins 41.5
House 01
John Sullivan (R) is unopposed.
House 02
Dan Boren (D) is a conservative Democrat running in a ruby-red district in a Republican wave year, but he’s so popular that it doesn’t matter.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Boren 61-Thompson 39
House 03
Frank Lucas (R) is easily winning.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Lucas 80.5-Robbins 19.5
House 04
Tom Cole (R) is unopposed.
House 05
James Lankford (R) will easily win his bid to succeed Mary Fallin, the next Governor of Oklahoma, in this Congressional seat.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Lankford 69-Coyle 31
Oregon
Senator
Senator Ron Wyden (D) will win reelection. He’s just too popular to be defeated in a state like Oregon, even in this climate.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Wyden 59 vs. Huffman 41
Governor
Meanwhile, former Governor John Kitzhaber and former Major League Baseball player Chris Dudley are locked in a close race for the whole cycle. No candidate has ever had a clear lead, and this hasn’t changed going into the election. The model thinks that Kitzhaber is ever so slightly ahead.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Kitzhaber 50.35-Dudley 49.65
House 01
David Wu (D) will easily win reelection here.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Wu 59.5-Cornilles 40.5
House 02
Greg Walden (R) is also going to be reelected.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Walden 75-Segers 25
House 03
Earl Blumenauer (D) is also winning.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Blumenauer 60-Lopez 40
House 04
Peter DeFazio isn’t ahead by as much as Blumenauer or Wu, but it should be enough for a relatively comfortable margin of victory.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: De Fazio 56-Robinson 44
House 05
In the only really close House race in Oregon, Kurt Schrader (D) is just slightly ahead of Republican Scott Bruun-probably. The point is that no pollster shows a close race: Some show a huge Bruun victory, others a comfortable win for Schrader. We’ll find out tomorrow.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Schrader 52-Bruun 48
Pennsylvania
Senator
Joe Sestak definitely surged in the last weeks, just as he did in the primary election when he unseated Republican-turned-Democrat Senator Arlen Specter. But pollsters also agree that he isn’t quite there yet- and time is running out. Even though Republican Pat Toomey, a former Congressman and Chamber of Commerce leader hasn’t won the election yet, it’s looking good for him.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Toomey 50.7-Sestak 49.3 Takeover
Governor
This race has actually tagged along with the Senate race very nicely, just that it always was a couple of points more Republican. When Sestak was down by 10 during the summer, Democratic candidate Onorato was down by 15 vs. Republican Corbett. When Sestak surged, so did Onorato, but he’s falling short of being really competitive. GOP Attorney General Tom Corbett will be the next Governor of Pennsylvania.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Corbett 52.75-Onorato 47.75
House 01
Robert Brady (D) is running unopposed, apart from a Green Party opponent who won’t win.
House 02
Chaka Fattah (D) is winning, clearly.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Fattah 80.5-Hellberg 19.5
House 03
Kathy Dahlkemper (D) is one of the Democratic incumbents who are poised to lose fairly certainly. She will be replaced in Congress by Republican Mike Kelly.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Kelly 56.5-Dahlkemper 43.5 Takeover
House 04
Jason Altmire (D) should be vulnerable, but he isn’t. He’s leading in the polls, clearly, and will almost certainly defeat Republican Keith Rothfus.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Altmire 58-Rothfus 42.
House 05
Glenn Thompson (R) is easily winning.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Thompson 69.5-Pipe 30.5
House 06
One of the best Democratic House challengers of the cycle, Manan Trivedi, will fall short of unseating GOP incumbent Jim Gerlach.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Gerlach 56-Trivedi 44
House 07
Bryan Lentz, a Democratic State Representative running in this seat left behind by Joe Sestak, does fairly well against Republican Pat Meehan, but a swingy open seat in this climate always tilts to the GOP.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Meehan 52-Lentz 48. Takeover
House 08
Democratic incumbent Patrick Murphy (D) is in trouble in his race against Republican Fitzpatrick, who lost the seat to Murphy in 2006. Money isn’t the problem for Murphy, who outraised Fitzpatrick 2:1 and benefited from huge outside spending in negative ads trying to define Fitzpatrick, but the climate is just brutal for Democrats in Pennsylvania and all over the Midwest. Watch Bucks County, that’s where the votes are.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Fitzpatrick 50.6-Murphy 49.4 Takeover
House 09
Bill Shuster (R) will easily win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Shuster 69.5-Conners 30.5
House 10
Christopher Carney (D) is in a close race against GOP candidate, US attorney Tom Marino. Well, actually, the race is not so close, Marino is ahead except for in Carney’s internal polls.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Marino 53.25-Carney 46.75 Takeover
House 11
Paul Kanjorski just barely won reelection in 2008, and much like Rep. Arcuri he isn’t doing as badly as expected in 2010- he’s also running against the same opponent as in 2008, like Arcuri. Still, he’s trailing GOP candidate Lou Barletta in most polls (though not all) and the model gives Barletta a slight edge. He needs to stay within 5 in Luzerne County.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Barnetta 51.2-Kanjorski 48.8
House 12
Mark Critz (D) is running in a rematch against Tim Burns (R), the man he beat about half a year ago in the special election caused by Rep. John Murtha’s (D) death. He won back then, but a big part of that was big Democratic turnout due to the parallel Sestak-Specter primary. Now he lacks that advantage, but he’s the incumbent. The polls and the model have him both ahead by a fairly comfortable margin.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Critz 54-Burns 46
House 13
Allyson Schwartz (D) will win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Schwartz 61-Adcock 39
House 14
Mike Doyle (D) will win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Doyle 69.5-Haluszczak 30.5
House 15
Charlie Dent (R) faces an aggressive and well-funded challenge by Democrat John Callahan, but like the other strong Democratic challengers Goyle, Trivedi and Bera, the Bethlehem mayor will fall short- the only ones who will likely avoid that fate are (possibly) Rivera, (likely) Hanabusa and (certainly) Richmond.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Dent 58-Callahan 42
House 16
Joe Pitts (R) also has a good challenger in Democrat Lois Herr, but he’ll also win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Pitts 60-Herr 40
House 17
Tim Holden, while in a relatively swingy district, seems to be poised to annihilate his GOP challenger.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Holden 68-Argall 32
House 18
Tim Murphy (R) will easily win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Murphy 70-Connolly 30
House 19
Todd Platts (R) will also win, like all the other Pennsylvania Republicans.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Platts 73.5-Sanders 26.5
Rhode Island
Governor
We can’t provide a reliable forecast for this race, because for once, three-way races are damn hard to predict statistically, and the race has been moving incredibly fast in the last days.
Still, it looks like Chaffee, the former GOP senator turned Democratic-leaning Independent, will win the Governorship ahead of Republican Robitaille and Democrat Caprio tying for second place- mostly because of Caprio’s self-destruction by telling Pres. Obama to ‘shove’ his endorsement. Chaffee led Caprio before that, too, but by a much smaller margin.
House 01
Republican candidate John Loughlin is rapidly closing in on Democrat David Cicilline in this race to replace retiring Democratic Congressman Patrick Kennedy. But he’s coming from so far behind that he’ll likely not close in fast enough.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Cicilline 55-Loughlin 45
House 02
Meanwhile, Democratic incumbent Jim Langevin will easily dispose of Republican Marc Zaccaria. Cicilline was also once in about the same category in terms of margin, but that’s changed.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Langevin 71-Zaccaria 29.
South Carolina
Senator
It’s probably not necessary to talk much about this race. Alvin Greene will, to the disappointment of every comedian in the nation, not be a U.S. Senator. Jim DeMint will be, and it’ll be interesting to see whether he takes on Mitch McConnell for the GOP leadership role.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: DeMint 72.5-Greene 27.5
Governor
Nikki Haley convincingly won the GOP primary with Sarah Palin’s help, but she’s not been that great during the General Election, leading Democrat Vincent Sheheen, sure, but it’s not a blowout, and it should be in South Carolina 2010.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Haley 55.5-Sheheen 44.5
House 01
Tim Scott, the GOP candidate, will take over the seat from retiring fellow Republican Henry Brown Jr.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Scott 68.5-Frasier 31.5
House 02
Joe Wilson, of ‘You lie!’ fame, has because of that scandal a well-funded challenger, who’s still using up the influx of money from the netroots that flew into Democrat Rob Miller’s campaign coffers in 2009. Not that it will do more than reducing Wilsons Margin of Victory by a bit.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Wilson 61-Miller 39
House 03
Jeff Duncan (R) will succeed Gresham Barrett (also R), who lost the Gubernatorial Primary.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Duncan 70.5-Dyer 29.5
House 04
Trey Gowdy (R) defeated not-conservative-enough Congressman Scott Inglis in the primary by a 71-29 margin and will go on to win the General Election as well.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Gowdy 73-Corden 27
House 05
John Spratt, the last white Democratic Congressman in South Carolina will very likely meet his nemesis in Republican candidate Mick Mulvaney. Spratt voted for the Health Care bill, and will in a majority-White South Carolina district pay dearly for that. If Spratt holds on to Darlington County though, there is hope.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Mulvaney 52.5-Spratt 47.5 Takeover
House 06
Spratt’s defeat will leave Democratic Congressman Jim Clyburn behind as the last Democratic member of the South Carolina delegation.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Clyburn 63.5-Pratt 36.5
South Dakota
Governor
Mike Rounds, the popular GOP governor who’s retiring, will be replaced by Dennis Daugaard, a fellow Republican and Rounds’ Lt. Gov., beating Democratic State Senate Minority Leader Scott Heidepriem.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Daugaard 61-Heidepriem 39
House 01
Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin is in a tight (and expensive) race with Kristi Noem. Noem was damaged a bit by a DUI citation, which brought Herseth-Sandlin back from a small deficit to a small lead- so says our model. Herseth-Sandlin is fairly popular, and moderate, but South Dakota doesn’t really like Democrats in general right now.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Herseth-Sandlin 51.5-Noem 48.5
Tennessee
Governor
Knoxville Mayor and millionaire Bill Haslam won the GOP primary in the race to succeed fairly popular Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen. The GOP primary is the real race here.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Haslam 65-McWherter 35
House 01
Phil Roe (R) will easily be reelected.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Roe 79.5-Clark 20.5
House 02
John Duncan (R) will also be reelected.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Duncan 79-Hancock 21
House 03
Chuck Fleischmann (R) will succeed Zach Wamp (R) who retired to spend his time on an unsuccessful gubernatorial run that ended in the primary.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Fleischmann 70.5-Wolfe 29.5
House 04
Lincoln Davis, another one of the dying breed of the white, conservative, southern Democrat, is locked in a tight race with Republican Scott DeJarlais. Our model still sees Davis slightly ahead, but the momentum is with DeJarlais, who’s caught up with a double digit deficit earlier in the cycle- with the help of special interests spending seven-figures on negative ads against Davis.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Davis 50.8-DeJarlais 49.2
House 05
Jim Cooper (D) should win reelection relatively safely.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Cooper 57.5-Hall 42.5
House 06
Diane Black (R) will succeed outgoing Rep. Bart Gordon (D).
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Black 66-Carter 34 Takeover
House 07
Marsha Blackburn (R) will win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Blackburn 76.5-Rabidoux 23.5
House 08
Stephen Fincher (R) will almost certainly defeat Democrat Roy Herron in the race to succeed retiring Blue Dog Democrat John Tanner. Herron fought a good battle, but this isn’t the right cycle for a Tennessee Democrat.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Fincher 55.5-Herron 44.5
House 09
Steve Cohen (D) will easily win the reelection, just like he won his primaries as a white Congressman in a minority-majority district against two African-Americans running against him on the position that this district needs to be represented by an African-American in 2008 and 2010. This district likes Cohen, and will reelect him.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Cohen 71-Bergmann 29
Texas
Governor
While the Democratic candidate, Bill White, ran a very good campaign against Republican Governor Rick Perry, whose approval ratings aren’t good, but not terribly bad either, a good campaign and personal popularity isn’t enough for a Democrat to win in Texas statewide this cycle.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Perry 54.5-White 45.5
House 01
Louie Gohmert (R) is running unopposed.
House 02
Ted Poe (R) is running unopposed.
House 03
Sam Johnson (R) will easily win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Johnson 72.5-Lingenfelder 27.5
House 04
Ralph Hall (R) will easily win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Hall 78-Hathcox 22
House 05
Jeb Hensarling (R) will easily win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Hensarling 75- Berry 25
House 06
Joe Barton (R) will, despite BP-gate, easily win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Barton 73.5-Cozak 26.5
House 07
John Culberson (R) is running unopposed.
House 08
Kevin Brady (R) will easily win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Brady 81-Hargett 19
House 09
Al Green (D) will easily win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Green 70.5-Mueller 29.5
House 10
Michael McCaul (R) will win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: McCaul 69-Ankrum 31
House 11
Mike Conaway (R) will be reelected, just like the guys in the neighboring districts.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Conaway 82-Quilian 18
House 12
Kay Granger (R) will easily win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Granger 71-Smith 29
House 13
Mac Thornberry (R) is running unopposed.
House 14
And of course, Ron Paul (R) will be reelected as well.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Paul 75.5-Pruett 24.5
House 15
Ruben Hinojosa (D) is easily winning.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Hinojosa 60-Zamora 40
House 16
Silvestre Reyes (D) is winning.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Reyes 65-Besco 35.
House 17
Chet Edwards (D) was targeted by the 2004 TX GOP gerrymander, but miraculously survived three times. Now his time is up. The new Congressman for TX-17 will be Chet Flores (R).
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Flores 57.5-Edwards 42.5 Takeover
House 18
Sheila Jackson-Lee (D) is winning.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Jackson-Lee 71.5-Faulk 28.5
House 19
Randy Neugebauer (R) will win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Neugebauer 81.5-Wilson 18.5
House 20
Charlie Gonzales (D) will win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Gonzales 64-Trotter 36
House 21
Lamar Smith (R) is winning. God, are Texas races boring.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Smith 74-Melnick 26
House 22
Pete Olson (R) is winning.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Olson 69.5-Rogers 30.5
House 23
Ciro Rodriguez (D) depends on good Hispanic turnout to retain his seat. The seat has more than 60% Hispanics, but they’re not turning out at that proportion. Therefore, Rodriguez is in the fight of his life against Republican Francisco Canseco. Canseco is favored to win according to the polls and to our model’s analysis of the race. Most of the vote here is in Bexar County, and while Rodriguez can afford to lose there by 2-3 points, it shouldn’t be more than that.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Canseco 53.5-Rodriguez 46.5 Takeover
House 24
Kenny Marchant (R) is running unopposed.
House 25
Blue Dog Democrat Lloyd Doggett (D) will win reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Doggett 61.5-Campbell 38.5
House 26
Michael Burgess (R) will win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Burgess 72.5-Durrance 27.5
House 27
Solomon Ortiz is supposedly according to GOP internal polls in a close race with GOPer Blake Farenthold, but Farenthold is scandal-ridden, posing in a pajama with half-naked underaged girls, and underfunded.
Still, our model somehow believes the polls. I’m personally skeptical about this call, but what can you do. Ortiz needs to be in single digits in Nueces County.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Farenthold 53-Ortiz 47 Takeover
House 28
Henry Cuellar (D) will win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Cuellar 60-Underwood 40
House 29
Gene Green (D) will win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Green 64.5-Morales 35.5
House 30
Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) will win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Johnson 74.5-Broden 25.5
House 31
John Carter (R) is running unopposed.
House 32
Pete Sessions (R) will easily win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Sessions 69.5-Raggio 30.5
Utah
Senator
Come on, this is Utah. Mike Lee (R) will beat Democrat Sam Granato after ousting Sen. Bob Bennett (R) in the primary.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Lee 63.5-Granato 36.5
Governor
Gary Herbert (R), the incumbent Governor who took office when Obama appointed Herbert’s predecessor Jon Huntsman to the ambassadorship in China, will win a full term against Democrat Coroon.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Herbert 67-Coroon 33
House 01
Rob Bishop (R) will easily win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Bishop 75-Bowen 25
House 02
Jim Matheson (D), the immensely popular Democratic Congressman, will defy the national climate and be reelected.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Matheson 58-Philpot 42
House 03
Jason Chaffetz (R), who won the seat in 2008 after defeating the incumbent in the primary, will be easily reelected.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Chaffetz 78-Hyer 22
Virginia
House 01
Robert Wittman (R) will handily beat Democrat Krystal Ball.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Wittman 68.5-Ball 31.5
House 02
Glenn Nye (D), the Democratic incumbent, is a fairly strong underdog against Republican challenger Scott Rigell. The district is leaning Republican, and in this climate Nye will have a hard time winning reelection despite of that. Also, Nye is one of the few Democrats being outraised by his GOP challenger. Nye needs to win or tie Virginia Beach County.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Rigell 53.8-Nye 46.2 Takeover
House 03
Robert Scott (D) will easily win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Scott 69-Smith 31
House 04
Randy Forbes (R) is winning reelection.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Forbes 68.5-LeGrow 31.5
House 05
Tom Perriello (D)- well, you know him all. He won the 2008 election by a couple hundreds of votes and runs now as an unapologetic progressive. He trailed his opponent, GOP State Sen. Robert Hurt, by double digits for most of the campaign, but has made a steep comeback- culminating in a huge rally by President Obama in his district. Unfortunately it probably won’t be enough. There are a couple of counties (or cities, we’re in VA after all) who voted like the district in Perriello’s 2008 bid: Lunenburg, Bedford City, Buckingham. Check on these to get a glimpse on how Perriello’s doing.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Hurt 53-Perriello 47. Takeover
House 06
Robert Goodlatte (R) is unopposed.
House 07
Eric Cantor (R) will win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Cantor 71.5-Waugh 28.5
House 08
James Moran (D) will easily be reelected here.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Moran 65.5-Murray 34.5
House 09
Rick Boucher (D) is another white Southern Democrat, in Southern Virginia. SurveyUSA has this race close, no one else agrees. Our model isn’t ready to see the race really close, either- though 538 does.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Boucher 56-Griffith 44
House 10
Frank Wolf (R) will win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Wolf 68-Barnett 32
House 11
Gerry Connolly (D) narrowly trails Republican Keith Fimian in the one poll taken here- and that doesn’t sound unreasonable. His district is relatively Republican, he’s just a freshman, not a veteran like Boucher, and he beat Fimian by only 12 points in 2008. Is it unreasonable to assume that this Southern, relatively white district shifted by 12 points since then? I don’t think so. Also, he was narrowly outraised by Fimian.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Fimian 52.25-Connolly 47.75 Takeover
Vermont
Senator
Pat Leahy will win reelection. No one really thought otherwise, right?
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Leahy 70-Britton 30
Governor
Peter Shumlin emerged out of a competitive, but friendly Democratic primary to take on Republican Lt. Gov Brian Dubie. Starting out at an almost 20 points deficit before the primary, Shumlin has surged into a 5-point lead even according to Rasmussen. He is favored to win right now, but there’s not enough data to say so for sure.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Shumlin 53-Dubie 47
House 01
Peter Welch (D) will be easily reelected.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Welch 70.5-Beaudry 29.5
Washington
Senator
It looks a lot like Dino Rossi (R) will suffer a third, consecutive defeat in his attempts to run for top Washington State offices. He has, as always, run a competitive campaign, and as always, it looks like he’s going to fall just short of winning. He currently trails Democratic incumbent Patty Murray (D) by a few points according to our model, despite a last-minute PPP poll showing him in the lead.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Murray 51.5-Rossi 48.5
House 01
Jay Inslee (D) will win his reelection bid.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Inslee 61-Watkins 39
House 02
Rick Larsen (D) should be in a toss-up at best right now, but he’s led his opponent, Republican John Koster, by about 10 points, and he outraised him 2:1. A Larsen loss would be a fairly huge upset.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Larsen 55-Koster 45
House 03
The retirement of Democratic lawmaker Brian Baird created an open seat race between Democrat Denny Heck and Republican Jaime Herrera here. Our model thinks that Herrera is overrated by the polls due to the fact that only Republican-leaning pollsters polled here. Correcting for House effect, our model sees Heck behind by less than one point in the polling. Combined with the Republican lean of the district, our model sees Herrera as a favorite, but not as prohibitive as most people think.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Herrera 51.5-Heck 48.5 Takeover
House 04
Doc Hastings (R) will win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Hastings 73-Clough 27
House 05
Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) will also win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Rodgers 71.5-Romeyn 28.5
House 06
Our model sees Norm Dicks (D) as the House Democrat who could be upset in an under-the-radar race. The Republican put out an internal poll that has him leading, and while our model doesn’t go that far, it agrees that the race is competitive.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Dicks 51-Cloud 49
House 07
Jim McDermott (D) is unopposed by major party candidates.
House 08
As with Danny Heck in WA-03, our model gives Suzan Del Bene (D) credit for performing well in right-leaning SurveyUSA polls and has her trailing Republican Rep. Dave Reichert by only one point in the polls. At the same time it think though that the polls are too optimistic for Del Bene and that Reichert’s incumbency and the swinginess of the district will pull Del Bene back a bit.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Reichert 51.75-Del Bene 48.25
House 09
Adam Smith (D) should win reelection, by a less-than-impressive margin. Still, he will most likely win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Smith 55.5-Muri 44.5
Wisconsin
Senator
Russ Feingold (D) actually had never very strong approval ratings, and never won his elections by huge margins, so it’s not a big surprise that he’s trailing Republican challenger Ron Johnson in a cycle where the going gets tough. Feingold didn’t run a very visible campaign until Johnson had already surpassed him (late August/early September)- and then it was too late. Now Feingold is trailing by a margin that’s fairly decisive with the time having run out for him.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Johnson 52.5-Feingold 47.5 Takeover
Governor
Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, on the other side, trailed Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker all the time by a fairly stable margin in the polls, and that hasn’t changed in the period leading up to election day. Walker will be the next Wisconsin governor, replacing retiring Democrat Jim Doyle.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Walker 53.5-Barrett 46.5
House 01
Paul Ryan (R) should easily win here.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Ryan 69.5%, Heckenlively 30.5
House 02
Tammy Baldwin (D) will easily win.
House 03
Ron Kind (D) will hang on, 54-46.
House 04
Gwen Moore (D) will easily win.
House 05
Rep. Sensenbrenner (R) will also win.
House 06
Tom Petri (R) will also win.
House 07
In this open seat race Republican Sean Duffy leads Democrat Julie Lassa 53-47
House 08
Reid Ribble leads Democratic Rep. Steve Kagen 53-47 here, both WI-07 and WI-08 are GOP takeovers.
West Virginia
Senator
The conventional storyline of the WV Senate election beginning with popular Governor Manchin’s entrance into the race is this: Manchin appeared to cruise to victory against Republican Raese, West Virginians turned against him despite his personal popularity because of their dislike of President Obama, and then Manchin managed to win them back by turning to the right. Our model disagrees: It ‘thinks’ that the polls that showed Raese leading Manchin were just outliers and that Manchin had a constant lead during the whole campaign.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Manchin 52.5-Raese 47.5
House 01
In a relative shocker, at least for national observers, West Virginia State Sen. Mike Oliverio upset U.S. Representative Alan Mollohan (D) in the primary and defeated the Blue Dog-from the right.
He has DCCC support though and runs a close race against Republican Doug McKinley- not really running to the Republican’s left like Democrats usually do. Olivierio would instantly be the most conservative House Democrat if elected.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: McKinley 50.3-Oliverio 49.7 Takeover
House 02
Shelley Moore-Capito (R) will win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Moore-Capito 69-Graf 31
House 03
Mike Rahall (D) was sometimes mentioned as a potential GOP target, but he’s safe.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Rahall 57-Maynard 43
Wyoming
Governor
The second that popular Democratic Governor Dave Freudenthal decided not to pull a Bloomberg, stick to his term-limits and retire, this race was over. The new Governor will be Republican Leslie Petersen.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Peterson 69-Mead 31
House 01
Cynthia Lummis (R) survived two relatively strong challenges in 2006 and 2008 and will win.
Stochastic Democracy Forecast: Lummis 68.5-Wendt 31.5