Public Policy Polling (PDF) (12/10-12, Wisconsin voters, no trendlines):
Herb Kohl (D-inc): 51
JB Van Hollen (R): 38
Undecided: 11Herb Kohl (D-inc): 48
Paul Ryan (R): 42
Undecided: 11Herb Kohl (D-inc): 49
Tommy Thompson (R): 40
Undecided: 11Russ Feingold (D): 52
JB Van Hollen (R): 41
Undecided: 7Russ Feingold (D): 50
Paul Ryan (R): 43
Undecided: 7Russ Feingold (D): 49
Tommy Thompson (R): 40
Undecided: 11(MoE: ±3.7%)
Oh, the difference a likely voter screen makes. PPP tests the Wisconsin Senate race, and finds Herb Kohl leading three of the more prominent Wisconsin GOPers: Attorney General JB Van Hollen, 1st District Congressman Paul Ryan, and former Governor and HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson by anywhere from 6 to 13 points. Kohl is reasonably well liked (though not nearly at Klobuchar-esque levels) at 50/43.
Of course, Kohl is not the youngest guy around, and should he retire and Russ Feingold be interested in staging a comeback, Feingold would be in rather good shape, leading the three GOP contenders from 7 to 11 points. Interestingly, Feingold’s favorables, at 50/43, are actually better than Ron Johnson’s, who is barely above water at 42/39. Oh, the difference a likely voter screen makes.
This poll gives us some reason to be optimistic, but let’s not forget that a year out from November 2010 – before Ron Johnson was on anyone’s radar – Feingold was leading Thompson by 9 and in commanding position against all others. One hopes 2012 will be different!
was a perfect candidate for the ’10 election. Well funded, telegenic and most importantly laser focuesed. Did he utter a single sentence in the whole campaign that didn’t include either Jobs, Defecit or Obamacare?
He decided (rightly as it turns out) that no other issues would matter and to tap into voter anger, especially among independents he needed to hammer on those 3 words and not get distracted by anything else. Seriously, he sounded like my daughters Talk To Me Elmo that you can program to only say certain things and say them over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over over and over.
This is PPP’s “voters” screen, and they haven’t updated their lists yet, which means that they’re still using as their definition “people who voted in 2004, 2006, or 2008.”
Two million dollar questions for this election (1) the degree to which Obama can generate the excitement among marginal Democratic voters that he did in 2008 and (2) the degree to which the GOP turned out new voters in 2010, and the degree to which they vote in 2012. I guess that’s really three questions, but let’s think of it as a 2(a) and 2(b). 🙂
Here is one of the first of the later I’ve seen for the ’12 POTUS race;
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds 42% of Americans say they’d probably vote for President Obama if he runs again in 2012 while 39% said they’d probably vote for a Republican.
This is middle of the road, but the rule of thumb is under 40% in a re-elect vs replace = trouble, so Obama at least has his head above water…
ten points down, and I wouldn’t necessarily want to panic, so I don’t want to celebrate since he’s up. Still, people like Kohl could be in far worse spots, so it’s not really bizarre to acknowledge he’s got a lot going for him.
At the same time, why not adopt the mentality that everyone is down ten points and work like a dog for the next two years? Call it the Harry Reid Mentality, if you will.
Seriously, I hope he’s having a conversation with all of these incumbents. Perhaps there will be different enough circumstances so that someone like Angle won’t be Kohl’s opponent, but the things he focused on–figuring out a coalition and then turning that coalition out, defining his opponent, and so on–never stop being key to winning reelection. In the end, the might not be able to win, but we are so far away from the election that there’s no excuse not to try.
Who would be the best democratic candidate for WI-Sen in 2012?
Now I’m leaning to keep H Kohl. But R Feingold can be good too.
I remember hearing talk of Ron Kind running in ’12 if Kohl retires. Although it might end up costing the Ds his district, Kind seems like a decent statewide candidate. Any indications otherwise?
Of the 3 candidates, Van Hollen is far and away the most likely candidate of these three and far and away the most likely candidate to be the GOP nominee. Starting with the US Senate race in 2004, Paul Ryan could’ve been the field-clearing Republican nominee. In that time he’s passed on three US Senate races (04, 06 and 2010) and 2 Governor’s races (06 and 2010). Now that he’s budget committee chair I don’t see any way he leaves that job for a senate race in 2012. The only way Paul Ryan leaves is for a job in a Republican White House. Tommy Thompson, outside of a brief presidential run, this guy hasn’t held elected office since 2000 and hasn’t run a race since 1998. That and the fact that he’ll turn 71 a couple weeks after the election and its unlikely he runs.
Van Hollen, he’s clearly an ambitous guy and I was a little surprised he didn’t run for senate in 2010. This is a free race for him as he just got re-elected AG, plus this is his last chance for a promotion for a very long time. If we assume Scott Walker and Ron Johnson run for re-election in 2014 and 2016, Van Hollen’s next chance would be a Gov. race in 2018 and even that’s not a gurantee as Wisconsin has no term limits for Governors
“Will these RVs show up to vote, though?”
Well, firstly, they aren’t registered voters but the unique hybrid model that PPP use at this stage. Secondly, that model hardly changed the situation by more than a couple of points when they changed to likely voters. And thirdly I seem to recall the final batch of PPP polls last month generally favored the GOP candidates by a couple points more than actually turned out to be the case. In other words, though we should all understand the caveat that it is very, very early, I think we should also consider these polls as probably being quite accurate.
Two years ago at this time, Russ Feingold looked unbeatable. Hell, a year ago at this time he looked to be in good shape. We all know how that turned out. All polls of the 2012 elections are meaningless until we know who the candidates are and the campaign narrative has begun to take shape. If the economy continues to languish and/or Obama continues to look incompetent, a good GOP candidate could repeat Reagan's 1980 landslide and sweep up a lot of seemingly harmless Republicans in his/her coattails. Even if the Presidential election is close, another Ron Johnson type can emerge from nowhere and, with great message discipline, plenty of self-funding and Citizens United on their side, pull off an upset.