Well, seeing as how I just finished a short research paper on Minnesota congressional districts for one of my classes, I thought it would be a good idea to give the diary thing a try before I get too busy with finals. This is the first in a series of Minnesota maps, some possible and others, unfortunately not. The first map is below:
My goal with this map was to predict the outcome of the redistricting process given the current situation – Republican legislature and Democratic governor. I assumed that Minnesota will keep its eigth seat becasue new estimates suggest that will happen and Minnesota had a very high census response rate. I may have been too optimistic by drawing Craavack out of the 8th (God I hope that happens) but if that were to happen to anyone, it would be him since he has the least seniority and influence. Close ups of the districts are below. In some of the close ups, green represents new additions to the district and purple/pink represents areas that were lost.
First District – Blue – Walz (DFL)
Likely DFL
The 1st remains largely unchanged, picking up Sibley county (53-30 Emmer, 58-39 McCain) and small pieces of Le Sueur, McLeod, Goodhue for population balance. This new district voted 40-46-13 Dayton/Emmer/Horner but reelected Tim Walz. Obama would likely have one this district in 2008 as well since very little has changed.
Second District – Green – Kline (R)
Safe R
Not much happens to Rep. Kline’s southern suburbs district either. It pulls out of Washington and Carver counties to make way for the urban districts to expand. It takes West St. Paul back from the fourth to preserve county lines and gives up a few precints on the southern edge for population balance. Emmer won this district 38-49-19 as well as McCain. The new Chariman of the Education and Labor Committee won’t have a problem holding this.
Third District – Purple – Paulsen (R)
Likely R
Hennepin County has lost some population and so Paulsen’s district has to expand outward. It picks of Carver County and a small part of Anoka County that used to be in the fifth district. This district currently has a PVI of D+0 but the expansion into Carver County (57-42 McCain, 28-58-13 Emmer) it becomes more Republican. This may be winnable for a moderate Democrat in a good year but otherwise, Paulsen should be safe.
Fourth District – Red – McCullom (DFL)
Safe DFL
This district gives its part of Dakota County back to the second district and picks up the southern half of Washington County. I wanted to add all of Washington so that Bachmann’s home would be here but that isn’t realistic to expect the Republican legislature to agree to that. It may happen if the courts draw the lines and only pay attention to population but that is unlikely. This district is currently D+13. It may have dropped slightly in this map with the addition of part of Washington County but not significantly.
Fifth District (College) – Yellow – Ellison (DFL)
Safe DFL
There isn’t much to see here. The fifth district gives up the little piece of Anoka County (Fridley and Columbia Heigths) and picks up a slightly bigger piece (population wise atleast) in the southwest inner suburbs (Edina). This district is currently D+23 and probably would stay that way.
Sixth District – Teal – Bachmann (R)
Likely R with Bachmann, Safe R with anyone else
Bachmann’s district undergoes the biggest changes. The sixth district trades Sherburne and part of Stearns (St. Cloud, home of Tarryl Clark)for Isanti and Chisago (Chip Cravaack’s home). It also picks up Meeker County and small parts of Anoka, Washington, and McLeod while giving up part of Washington to McCullom. With the loss of St. Cloud and the addition of Meeker, this district becomes more Republican. Since Bachmann is so crazy, this may be likely R with a great DFL candidate and a good year. This would definitely be safe with any other Republican. Cravaack also lives in this district but would Bachmann would easily defeat him at the district convention or primary.
Seventh District – Grey – Peterson (DFL)
Safe DFL with Peterson, Lean R when open
This district is mostly the same with just few changes in central Minnesota. It picks up the rest of Beltrami as well as all of Hubbard, Cass, and Wadena from the eigth district. It loses Meeker, Sibley, and part of McLeod to balance out the population. This mostly rural district voted for McCain 47-50 and likely voted for Emmer over Dayton. This is Safe DFL with Peterson running but would probably be lean R at best when he decides to retire.
Eigth District (Home) – Slate Blue – Cravaack (R)
Lean DFL
A few weeks before the election, I confidently declared that Jim Oberstar would not lose. Unfortunately, I was wrong but now Rep.-elect Chip Cravaack is high on the target list for 2012. His new district trades Chisago and Isanti for part of Stearns (St. Cloud) and Sherburne. Cravaack no longer lives in this district but could easily move 20 miles up I-35 if he wanted to. Drawing Cravaack may not be possible with the Republican legislature but, since he has no seniority and very little influence, pretty much everyone has little incentive to listen to him. With Cravaack as the incumbent, this district is Lean DFL and woud be Likely DFL if the incumbency effect was not in place.
Overall, this map produces a 5DFL-3R split that would hold up in all but the worst years (like 2010). Once Peterson retires, it would become 4DFL-4R unless the DFL could find a moderate/populist to run.
Any suggestions and comments are welcome. this is my first complete map and diary so any insight would be greatly appreciated especially since I’m young don’t know a lot about the history of politics in Minnesota and how that might affect the results using this map or any historic district boundaries. Any information on that would be helpful too. Thanks!
Your MN-8 I think is perfect for electing a DFLer. And even while many of those St. Cloud area precincts are blood red, they see lots of drop-off when it comes to voting for Bachmann. You can really work the whole area if you have St. Cloud ties; it’s a “metro” of maybe 100k people with a very, very small town vibe. Love it.
I think MN-2 will elect a DFLer almost regularly. The portions of Dakota county you added are at least 60-40 DFL. And then you cut out Carver County which is extremely needed. Obama definitely won your MN-2. And maybe by a bigger margin than the current MN-3.
wild cards of 2010. Thankful for the state that they appear to be spared a lost seat. I think predicting what will happen is really hard.
The Gov is democrat and the legislative bodies are GOP. Plus the state surpreme court is heavily republican so predicting an outcome is hard.
I had two ideas-a minor jigger of sorts to help all incumbents.
1st & 2nd Swap Wabasha for Rice counties plus keep the other lines the same. Both incumbents are helped a bit.
6th
7th 8th do a minor swapThe 8th gives up Itasca & Koochiching counties plus rest of Beltrami to 8th. The 8th picked up Benton plus N. part of Stearns then the 6th curls around to take what it needs to be equal in Meeker/McCleod & Sibley. Naturally you what you have to equalize out all the districts keeping urban & suburban stuff the same.That would be some sort of compromise. There’s always a chance the state courts will just okay either plan carte blanche so a compromise could happen.
Now you couldsee things get really strange. You could see the Northern part of the 8th (the two counties I mentioned plus St Louis-Cook-Lake) attached to the Northern part of the 7th. Peterson is from Becker county and he is very strong in Northern part of that seat. You would see some sort of swap of Northern & southern parts of 7th & 8th districts. That would be out of the box thinking but its an obvious way to secure the 7th as a democratic seat and the 8th as a GOP leaning seat. Peterson will be 66 so he may be facing retirement soon as it is.
thanks for posting. I appreciate the effort.
But, as you say, with split control over the process it’s probably a realistic compromise.
Good job.
Walz will hate this map and may lose. Expanding the first isn’t really necessary, as it is currently above the value 1/8 the population. Expanding it into Sibley County is one of the worst things you can possibly do for Tim Walz. This seat is toss-up at best with the new Republican stronghold in there.
What a waste of Democratic votes in district 2. I know it will be a compromise map, and Kline will be protected due to his seniority and chairmanship, but if you’re looking to make a bunch of 53% R districts, this is a good way to start.
I don’t see the 3rd moving into Carver County, or even Anoka County for that matter. The 3rd is a Hennepin County-sans-Minneapolis map. This is one of the few truths that carried over from the 1990s district. I see the district taking up nearly all of Hennepin County outside of Minneapolis, much like it does now.
The 4th seems pretty similar to what I envision, although my idea has it suck up northern Washington County, and not Southern. Either way, McCollum is safe
The 5th is compact, as it ought to be.
6th: Safe Republican, as it is now. And it gets rid of that ugly tentacle that runs down passed Stillwater
The 7th is safe for Peterson, although probably a tinge more Republican than it’s current form.
The 8th is where I am from, so I have quite an opinion on what should happen here. But sticking to your map, it seems reasonable. Unless there is a forged compromise between Dayton and the legislature, I don’t see Isanti and Chisago sitting around in this district. (Cravaack lives in Chisago County, and the legislature would try to make sure his home is still in his district if they have a say). If the courts draw the maps, it’ll have very similar boundaries to what it has now.
there is scenerio A & B.
One is mild swap of territory that perserves all the seats. I little here-a litte there.
Two-maybe something wild like a great white north seat
I don’t think the courts will do anything but a scenerio 1–perhaps everyone can agree on a scenerio one type plan.
The odds on scenerio two with a 4-4 plan. Maybe 10% but it will certainly be legislative and not judicial.