As David posted earlier, Census data for the first four states has been released.
Democrats don’t control redistricting in Virginia…but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be interesting to see what could happen.
Here’s one proposal, a 5-5-1 map, with the swing district being perfect for a Tom Perriello comeback.
Greetings, loved ones. Let’s take a journey…
We’ll start out in Hampton Roads:
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 727,092 | 14.63% | 4.50% | 3.69% | 40.87% | 58.15% | 30.98% | 68.93% |
| Accomack | 33,164 | 28.05% | 8.59% | 0.55% | 48.69% | 50.14% | 37.56% | 62.42% |
| Chesapeake City | 142,972 | 19.74% | 3.66% | 3.08% | 40.39% | 58.73% | 31.76% | 68.16% |
| Gloucester | 36,858 | 8.67% | 2.54% | 0.78% | 35.98% | 62.89% | 27.77% | 72.09% |
| Hanover | 61,394 | 7.67% | 2.06% | 1.54% | 29.98% | 69.24% | 20.95% | 78.94% |
| James City | 56,095 | 11.96% | 4.01% | 2.26% | 44.34% | 54.78% | 33.85% | 66.03% |
| Mathews | 8,978 | 9.17% | 1.16% | 0.35% | 35.55% | 63.53% | 29.96% | 69.92% |
| Middlesex | 10,959 | 18.05% | 1.51% | 0.34% | 39.81% | 59.02% | 30.43% | 69.52% |
| New Kent | 18,429 | 13.48% | 2.12% | 0.88% | 34.96% | 63.91% | 25.47% | 74.43% |
| Northampton | 12,389 | 36.55% | 7.05% | 0.67% | 57.70% | 41.19% | 48.86% | 51.03% |
| Poquoson City | 12,150 | 0.64% | 1.82% | 2.14% | 24.74% | 74.01% | 19.78% | 80.16% |
| Virginia Beach City | 301,190 | 14.05% | 5.77% | 5.97% | 44.17% | 54.80% | 33.24% | 66.67% |
| York | 32,514 | 6.34% | 3.29% | 3.56% | 35.23% | 63.69% | 27.26% | 72.65% |
Rob Wittman’s 1st district shifts eastward, now taking in part of the Northern Neck, the Virginia section of the Delmarva, and parts of Virginia Beach and Chesapeake City. A side consequence of this would be the turf war between Wittman and Scott Rigell, as this district is 22% from the old 1st and 48% from the old 2nd. Nothing much else to see here, Obama lost by 17, Deeds by 38, Steve Shannon (2009 Dem AG nominee) by 35, and Jody Wagner (2009 Dem LG nominee) by 29.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 727,700 | 38.14% | 7.08% | 3.93% | 64.62% | 34.46% | 51.85% | 48.03% |
| Chesapeake City | 79,237 | 47.98% | 5.64% | 2.50% | 69.76% | 29.49% | 59.19% | 40.73% |
| Hampton City | 96,757 | 42.01% | 4.83% | 2.51% | 63.23% | 35.91% | 50.30% | 49.57% |
| James City | 10,914 | 19.20% | 7.07% | 2.19% | 48.64% | 50.46% | 36.88% | 63.09% |
| Newport News City | 114,167 | 34.85% | 9.71% | 3.75% | 60.62% | 38.53% | 46.36% | 53.53% |
| Norfolk City | 242,803 | 43.11% | 6.65% | 3.29% | 71.03% | 28.06% | 60.08% | 39.79% |
| Virginia Beach City | 136,804 | 31.89% | 8.49% | 6.42% | 62.03% | 37.00% | 46.33% | 53.57% |
| Williamsburg City | 14,068 | 13.99% | 6.69% | 5.74% | 63.77% | 34.67% | 54.60% | 45.26% |
| York | 32,950 | 20.30% | 5.53% | 6.21% | 47.38% | 51.55% | 35.25% | 64.58% |
Bobby Scott’s current 3rd is clearly overpacked, with the choicest parts of Hampton, Norfolk, Newport News, and Portsmouth dumped into his district. We unpack the 3rd a bit, lending some of its Democratic strength here. This new district contains the entirety of Norfolk, parts of Newport News, Chesapeake, and VA Beach. There’s also an arm to grab Williamsburg, one of the few instances in this area of relatively white precincts voting Dem. 19% old 1st, 37% old 2nd, and 33% old 3rd, we get a district that Obama won by 30% (!!), and was even carried by all three Dems in 2009.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 727,246 | 50.91% | 5.89% | 1.84% | 71.40% | 27.79% | 60.71% | 39.13% |
| Charles City | 7,256 | 48.42% | 1.21% | 0.34% | 68.34% | 31.01% | 58.53% | 41.38% |
| Chesterfield | 56,895 | 42.34% | 17.85% | 2.96% | 66.34% | 32.93% | 54.21% | 45.58% |
| Hampton City | 40,679 | 67.49% | 3.84% | 1.38% | 82.45% | 16.87% | 74.80% | 25.03% |
| Henrico | 145,098 | 51.47% | 5.37% | 2.45% | 70.10% | 29.14% | 60.91% | 38.95% |
| Hopewell City | 22,591 | 37.04% | 6.55% | 0.80% | 55.49% | 43.56% | 37.38% | 62.39% |
| Isle Of Wight | 22,515 | 26.29% | 1.91% | 0.95% | 44.01% | 55.21% | 34.97% | 64.94% |
| Newport News City | 66,552 | 50.67% | 3.76% | 1.01% | 68.96% | 30.31% | 55.37% | 44.52% |
| Petersburg City | 32,420 | 79.11% | 3.75% | 0.82% | 88.64% | 10.19% | 80.99% | 18.97% |
| Portsmouth City | 95,535 | 53.26% | 3.06% | 1.07% | 69.27% | 29.97% | 59.76% | 40.18% |
| Prince George | 26,433 | 35.43% | 6.87% | 1.67% | 47.60% | 51.60% | 31.72% | 68.17% |
| Richmond City | 204,214 | 50.60% | 6.27% | 2.33% | 79.09% | 20.03% | 69.23% | 30.55% |
| Surry | 7,058 | 46.10% | 1.22% | 0.34% | 60.72% | 38.45% | 53.61% | 46.18% |
The 3rd, having been unpacked, sees its black percentage drop from 56% to 51%. However, the VAP also remains over 50% African-American. In what would be a relief to Randy Forbes, Petersburg is removed from this district, which becomes more Richmond-centric. 59% old 3rd, 20% old 7th, and 15% old 4th. Obama dominated here (no surprise), and all three Dems in 09 scored 20%+ wins.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 727,955 | 17.68% | 3.79% | 3.88% | 42.13% | 56.97% | 30.93% | 68.95% |
| Amelia | 12,690 | 23.10% | 2.29% | 0.21% | 38.11% | 60.81% | 28.85% | 71.10% |
| Chesterfield | 259,341 | 17.48% | 4.90% | 3.32% | 42.25% | 56.88% | 30.45% | 69.38% |
| Colonial Heights City | 17,411 | 10.24% | 3.87% | 3.32% | 28.95% | 69.63% | 16.83% | 83.14% |
| Dinwiddie | 28,001 | 32.87% | 2.41% | 0.44% | 48.45% | 50.62% | 37.34% | 62.60% |
| Fluvanna | 25,691 | 15.33% | 2.96% | 0.57% | 48.57% | 50.41% | 36.48% | 63.39% |
| Franklin City | 4,422 | 25.28% | 2.53% | 1.40% | 38.99% | 60.08% | 32.73% | 67.27% |
| Goochland | 21,717 | 19.25% | 2.10% | 1.04% | 38.31% | 60.84% | 29.11% | 70.77% |
| Hanover | 38,469 | 11.95% | 2.21% | 1.05% | 37.48% | 61.65% | 28.09% | 71.75% |
| Henrico | 161,837 | 9.88% | 4.46% | 10.20% | 43.75% | 55.40% | 31.29% | 68.58% |
| Isle Of Wight | 12,755 | 21.90% | 1.79% | 0.53% | 40.77% | 58.29% | 32.36% | 67.61% |
| Louisa | 33,153 | 17.71% | 2.30% | 0.48% | 45.45% | 53.29% | 34.58% | 65.34% |
| Nottoway | 15,853 | 39.28% | 3.84% | 0.32% | 48.84% | 50.07% | 41.58% | 58.28% |
| Powhatan | 28,046 | 13.63% | 1.79% | 0.47% | 29.31% | 69.78% | 20.03% | 79.85% |
| Prince George | 9,292 | 22.22% | 2.60% | 1.10% | 38.52% | 60.75% | 29.86% | 70.09% |
| Southampton | 8,698 | 24.88% | 0.86% | 0.39% | 39.95% | 59.19% | 33.08% | 66.89% |
| Suffolk City | 41,589 | 27.77% | 2.93% | 2.29% | 44.48% | 54.73% | 35.79% | 64.17% |
| Sussex | 8,990 | 57.33% | 2.49% | 0.46% | 57.72% | 41.49% | 42.28% | 57.72% |
With the eastward shift of the 1st, the 4th and 7th also rotate accordingly along the Richmond-Norfolk axis created by the 2nd and 3rd. Nothing to see here, other than we’ve cut out part of Forbes base and drew in much of the old 7th (53% is from the old 7th, compared to 43% old 4th). But Cantor could clearly run in the new 7th and Forbes in the new 4th. Dems in 09 lost by 30%+.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 727,351 | 29.89% | 3.43% | 2.03% | 57.47% | 41.45% | 47.35% | 52.54% |
| Albemarle | 98,970 | 9.70% | 5.47% | 4.67% | 58.43% | 40.36% | 49.41% | 50.48% |
| Amherst | 12,637 | 22.50% | 1.75% | 0.51% | 47.46% | 51.77% | 38.61% | 61.39% |
| Brunswick | 17,434 | 57.31% | 1.71% | 0.28% | 62.84% | 36.35% | 49.41% | 50.49% |
| Buckingham | 17,146 | 35.08% | 1.68% | 0.37% | 49.89% | 49.01% | 36.60% | 63.40% |
| Charlotte | 12,586 | 29.80% | 1.91% | 0.21% | 43.93% | 54.77% | 33.24% | 66.62% |
| Charlottesville City | 43,475 | 19.41% | 5.11% | 6.37% | 78.35% | 20.35% | 73.65% | 26.21% |
| Cumberland | 10,052 | 32.61% | 1.80% | 0.35% | 47.73% | 51.19% | 35.87% | 64.09% |
| Danville City | 43,055 | 48.30% | 2.89% | 0.94% | 59.13% | 40.02% | 44.93% | 54.96% |
| Emporia City | 5,927 | 62.53% | 4.42% | 0.73% | 65.04% | 34.28% | 47.57% | 52.35% |
| Franklin | 38,514 | 8.83% | 2.68% | 0.49% | 39.06% | 59.55% | 31.66% | 68.25% |
| Franklin City | 4,160 | 90.53% | 0.70% | 0.05% | 94.65% | 4.88% | 91.81% | 8.06% |
| Greensville | 12,243 | 59.80% | 1.41% | 0.29% | 63.88% | 35.38% | 52.64% | 47.36% |
| Halifax | 36,241 | 36.68% | 1.62% | 0.37% | 48.23% | 51.04% | 38.25% | 61.53% |
| Henry | 11,930 | 39.81% | 5.58% | 0.45% | 57.61% | 41.49% | 51.27% | 48.73% |
| Lunenburg | 12,914 | 34.75% | 3.64% | 0.19% | 47.84% | 51.33% | 37.45% | 62.52% |
| Lynchburg City | 25,110 | 53.21% | 2.53% | 0.67% | 71.04% | 27.58% | 61.07% | 38.72% |
| Martinsville City | 13,821 | 44.95% | 3.99% | 0.93% | 63.48% | 35.44% | 51.66% | 48.18% |
| Mecklenburg | 32,727 | 36.82% | 2.46% | 0.67% | 47.26% | 51.83% | 32.32% | 67.67% |
| Montgomery | 46,128 | 3.37% | 2.88% | 7.02% | 58.99% | 39.52% | 53.93% | 45.87% |
| Nelson | 15,020 | 13.10% | 3.06% | 0.45% | 53.99% | 44.84% | 46.23% | 53.67% |
| Pittsylvania | 37,893 | 26.92% | 1.56% | 0.19% | 42.81% | 56.26% | 32.76% | 67.24% |
| Prince Edward | 23,368 | 33.19% | 2.25% | 0.88% | 54.34% | 44.46% | 44.95% | 54.97% |
| Roanoke | 3,003 | 3.13% | 0.93% | 0.27% | 40.93% | 57.70% | 31.39% | 68.51% |
| Roanoke City | 97,032 | 28.46% | 5.51% | 1.76% | 61.15% | 37.76% | 51.89% | 48.01% |
| Southampton | 9,872 | 48.14% | 1.30% | 0.12% | 57.84% | 41.21% | 48.82% | 51.13% |
| Suffolk City | 42,996 | 57.15% | 2.78% | 0.92% | 69.00% | 30.31% | 55.41% | 44.47% |
| Sussex | 3,097 | 60.35% | 1.42% | 0.23% | 69.11% | 30.45% | 57.34% | 42.66% |
A leaner, meaner 5th for Tom Perriello. We could have also tried to bring back Rick Boucher, but when you’re forced to decide between a young up-and-coming progressive vs. a career Blue Dog in a more hostile district, the choice is obvious. This is a pretty blatant gerrymander, meant to string together all the Dems in Southside and to connect them to Dems in Charlottesville, Roanoke, … and even Blacksburg. The result is a district Obama won by 16%, a massive improvement from the 3% loss he earned in the old 5th. 63% of the population is retained, along with 19% of the old 6th. Deeds kept it respectable, losing by 5; Shannon lost by 6 and Wagner by 3.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 727,482 | 4.65% | 1.92% | 0.90% | 37.28% | 61.12% | 30.64% | 69.28% |
| Bland | 6,824 | 3.34% | 0.57% | 0.26% | 29.20% | 68.64% | 24.06% | 75.88% |
| Bristol City | 17,835 | 5.66% | 1.24% | 0.68% | 36.21% | 62.22% | 27.48% | 72.44% |
| Buchanan | 24,098 | 2.56% | 0.39% | 0.22% | 46.52% | 51.99% | 36.74% | 63.22% |
| Carroll | 30,042 | 0.59% | 2.58% | 0.18% | 32.67% | 65.08% | 26.96% | 72.97% |
| Craig | 5,190 | 0.10% | 0.69% | 0.15% | 33.46% | 64.67% | 32.17% | 67.76% |
| Dickenson | 15,903 | 0.32% | 0.54% | 0.11% | 48.54% | 49.22% | 39.46% | 60.46% |
| Floyd | 15,279 | 1.83% | 2.70% | 0.23% | 39.08% | 59.09% | 34.08% | 65.77% |
| Franklin | 17,645 | 6.66% | 2.23% | 0.35% | 34.81% | 63.58% | 29.69% | 70.26% |
| Galax City | 7,042 | 6.23% | 14.04% | 0.53% | 43.80% | 54.83% | 37.38% | 62.40% |
| Giles | 17,286 | 1.51% | 1.21% | 0.32% | 40.95% | 57.24% | 36.56% | 63.35% |
| Grayson | 15,533 | 2.06% | 2.68% | 0.10% | 34.35% | 62.88% | 29.71% | 70.29% |
| Henry | 42,221 | 16.80% | 4.45% | 0.43% | 39.85% | 58.67% | 32.38% | 67.61% |
| Lee | 25,587 | 3.70% | 1.59% | 0.22% | 34.89% | 63.13% | 25.71% | 74.27% |
| Montgomery | 48,264 | 4.48% | 2.50% | 3.89% | 41.25% | 57.32% | 35.04% | 64.83% |
| Norton City | 3,958 | 6.32% | 1.72% | 1.41% | 49.14% | 49.21% | 39.34% | 60.55% |
| Patrick | 18,490 | 5.87% | 2.40% | 0.23% | 33.75% | 64.37% | 29.86% | 70.04% |
| Pittsylvania | 25,613 | 14.91% | 2.89% | 0.42% | 30.51% | 68.54% | 23.11% | 76.89% |
| Pulaski | 34,872 | 5.04% | 1.24% | 0.51% | 39.32% | 58.85% | 34.84% | 65.12% |
| Radford City | 16,408 | 7.79% | 2.35% | 1.56% | 53.97% | 44.54% | 45.33% | 54.56% |
| Roanoke | 59,667 | 5.22% | 2.27% | 3.29% | 39.92% | 58.89% | 32.83% | 67.01% |
| Russell | 28,897 | 0.81% | 0.95% | 0.18% | 42.91% | 55.59% | 37.55% | 62.42% |
| Salem City | 24,802 | 7.11% | 2.42% | 1.62% | 41.63% | 57.13% | 33.39% | 66.45% |
| Scott | 23,177 | 0.58% | 1.01% | 0.16% | 27.59% | 70.68% | 21.14% | 78.81% |
| Smyth | 32,208 | 1.99% | 1.64% | 0.25% | 34.46% | 63.54% | 26.38% | 73.53% |
| Tazewell | 45,078 | 2.96% | 0.66% | 0.64% | 32.80% | 65.65% | 26.58% | 73.36% |
| Washington | 54,876 | 1.26% | 1.32% | 0.37% | 32.91% | 65.62% | 25.10% | 74.87% |
| Wise | 41,452 | 5.16% | 1.14% | 0.34% | 35.33% | 63.05% | 29.55% | 70.33% |
| Wythe | 29,235 | 2.80% | 0.96% | 0.44% | 32.88% | 65.70% | 27.24% | 72.63% |
There simply isn’t enough Democratic strength down here to support both Perriello and Boucher, and protecting Boucher would likely be a poor investment given the political trends. We cede this district to Morgan Griffith, who retains 81% of his current territory. With the adjustments to help Perriello, we see a bit of a shift rightward, with Obama losing by 24. Again, all the 09 Dems lost by 35%+.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 726,966 | 7.04% | 3.79% | 1.10% | 36.94% | 61.83% | 29.18% | 70.72% |
| Alleghany | 16,250 | 4.68% | 1.08% | 0.23% | 48.22% | 50.41% | 61.23% | 38.71% |
| Amherst | 19,716 | 16.76% | 2.05% | 0.46% | 38.06% | 60.93% | 28.68% | 71.25% |
| Appomattox | 14,973 | 20.08% | 1.12% | 0.23% | 34.61% | 64.26% | 25.65% | 74.33% |
| Augusta | 73,750 | 3.97% | 2.07% | 0.50% | 29.47% | 69.35% | 22.53% | 77.40% |
| Bath | 4,731 | 4.69% | 2.13% | 0.15% | 42.89% | 55.47% | 63.47% | 36.47% |
| Bedford | 68,676 | 5.74% | 1.59% | 1.03% | 30.75% | 68.16% | 22.87% | 77.07% |
| Bedford City | 6,222 | 20.19% | 2.15% | 0.66% | 44.18% | 54.75% | 35.25% | 64.75% |
| Botetourt | 33,148 | 3.03% | 1.07% | 0.53% | 32.71% | 65.90% | 28.56% | 71.26% |
| Buena Vista City | 6,650 | 5.22% | 1.55% | 0.44% | 45.73% | 52.91% | 39.05% | 60.95% |
| Campbell | 54,842 | 14.16% | 1.67% | 1.00% | 31.34% | 67.58% | 22.90% | 76.92% |
| Covington City | 5,961 | 12.51% | 1.54% | 0.57% | 55.40% | 43.33% | 65.79% | 34.07% |
| Frederick | 42,487 | 2.93% | 4.92% | 0.80% | 36.23% | 62.27% | 23.78% | 76.07% |
| Greene | 18,403 | 6.34% | 4.24% | 1.40% | 38.43% | 60.29% | 27.37% | 72.53% |
| Harrisonburg City | 48,914 | 6.36% | 15.67% | 3.51% | 57.54% | 41.21% | 42.16% | 57.67% |
| Highland | 2,321 | 0.26% | 0.78% | 0.17% | 37.97% | 59.85% | 44.93% | 55.07% |
| Lexington City | 7,042 | 9.66% | 3.85% | 2.20% | 62.24% | 36.87% | 60.53% | 39.34% |
| Lynchburg City | 50,458 | 17.40% | 3.30% | 3.37% | 37.43% | 61.36% | 30.31% | 69.59% |
| Madison | 13,308 | 9.78% | 1.77% | 0.56% | 42.72% | 56.10% | 30.46% | 69.47% |
| Page | 24,042 | 1.94% | 1.55% | 0.30% | 40.76% | 58.16% | 29.73% | 70.15% |
| Roanoke | 29,706 | 4.84% | 1.92% | 1.67% | 36.46% | 62.48% | 29.68% | 70.19% |
| Rockbridge | 22,307 | 2.66% | 1.33% | 0.47% | 42.64% | 56.22% | 41.88% | 58.07% |
| Rockingham | 76,314 | 1.67% | 5.34% | 0.60% | 31.36% | 67.40% | 21.75% | 78.14% |
| Shenandoah | 41,993 | 1.75% | 6.14% | 0.52% | 35.96% | 62.45% | 25.00% | 74.85% |
| Staunton City | 23,746 | 12.15% | 2.16% | 0.78% | 50.56% | 48.39% | 41.40% | 58.54% |
| Waynesboro City | 21,006 | 10.61% | 6.36% | 0.73% | 44.09% | 54.35% | 30.97% | 68.91% |
Again, nothing to see here. Goodlatte retains 68% of his old territory, a strip along the Blue Ridge. The 2009 Dems lost by 40%+; Warner only won by 10 here in 2008.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 727,428 | 15.09% | 7.03% | 1.94% | 46.08% | 52.82% | 33.13% | 66.74% |
| Caroline | 28,545 | 29.34% | 3.36% | 0.62% | 55.45% | 43.48% | 43.47% | 56.47% |
| Clarke | 14,034 | 5.32% | 3.49% | 0.90% | 46.52% | 51.68% | 36.59% | 63.31% |
| Culpeper | 46,689 | 15.78% | 8.90% | 1.30% | 44.59% | 54.26% | 29.61% | 70.25% |
| Essex | 11,151 | 38.09% | 3.13% | 0.77% | 54.70% | 44.35% | 39.19% | 60.81% |
| Fauquier | 65,203 | 8.16% | 6.41% | 1.28% | 42.71% | 56.19% | 31.10% | 68.77% |
| Frederick | 35,818 | 5.39% | 8.59% | 1.76% | 41.35% | 57.16% | 26.68% | 73.19% |
| Fredericksburg City | 24,286 | 22.64% | 10.73% | 2.84% | 63.60% | 35.27% | 50.84% | 48.94% |
| King & Queen | 6,945 | 28.44% | 2.65% | 0.24% | 51.77% | 47.58% | 41.03% | 58.87% |
| King George | 23,584 | 17.87% | 3.35% | 1.16% | 42.71% | 56.22% | 29.69% | 70.18% |
| King William | 15,935 | 17.69% | 2.03% | 0.74% | 39.87% | 59.20% | 28.40% | 71.54% |
| Lancaster | 11,391 | 27.95% | 1.04% | 0.57% | 46.63% | 52.57% | 35.16% | 64.59% |
| Northumberland | 12,330 | 25.33% | 3.10% | 0.30% | 44.72% | 54.56% | 34.39% | 65.41% |
| Orange | 33,481 | 12.71% | 3.40% | 0.73% | 44.98% | 53.83% | 32.66% | 67.28% |
| Prince William | 48,819 | 7.26% | 8.41% | 5.35% | 40.63% | 58.36% | 29.10% | 70.79% |
| Rappahannock | 7,373 | 4.35% | 3.09% | 0.53% | 47.79% | 50.56% | 42.20% | 57.70% |
| Richmond | 9,254 | 30.30% | 5.51% | 0.43% | 43.20% | 55.86% | 31.69% | 68.26% |
| Spotsylvania | 122,397 | 15.25% | 7.58% | 2.31% | 46.05% | 52.91% | 31.51% | 68.35% |
| Stafford | 128,961 | 16.97% | 9.21% | 2.81% | 46.37% | 52.69% | 32.44% | 67.39% |
| Warren | 37,575 | 4.62% | 3.51% | 0.96% | 43.39% | 55.06% | 31.32% | 68.58% |
| Westmoreland | 17,454 | 28.02% | 5.74% | 0.57% | 54.64% | 44.40% | 41.38% | 58.57% |
| Winchester City | 26,203 | 10.93% | 15.42% | 2.33% | 52.02% | 46.66% | 39.18% | 60.67% |
We could try to screw Eric Cantor out of a district, but again, that wouldn’t necessarily be successful. Democratic voters(which would have likely had to come from NoVA) are better kept in the three decently solidly Dem NoVA districts. Without touching the Dems in NoVA though, we still try to draw as Democratic a district as possible, taking in various parts of the Northern Neck and the DC exurbs. Hopefully, those areas – Fauquier, Culpeper, Winchester, etc. – will keep drifing left as DC’s influence grows. While Obama lost by 7 here, there are still miles to go, with the 09 Dems having lost by 30% or more. 56% of this district is from the old 1st, 17% from the old 7th, and 21% from the old 10th (showing some of the growth it’s experienced).
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 727,839 | 9.84% | 13.29% | 11.17% | 63.39% | 35.60% | 53.71% | 46.10% |
| Alexandria City | 139,966 | 21.78% | 16.09% | 6.02% | 71.73% | 27.26% | 62.76% | 37.04% |
| Arlington | 207,627 | 8.49% | 15.11% | 9.60% | 71.71% | 27.12% | 65.49% | 34.26% |
| Fairfax | 82,317 | 2.50% | 6.38% | 16.70% | 56.50% | 42.63% | 48.79% | 51.06% |
| Falls Church City | 12,332 | 4.31% | 8.99% | 9.42% | 69.56% | 29.19% | 64.92% | 34.94% |
| Loudoun | 285,597 | 7.31% | 12.76% | 13.32% | 53.59% | 45.48% | 38.92% | 60.94% |
Again, a shameless gerrymander. But, we did manage to keep Alexandria and Arlington intact. Jim Moran probably needs a little more support than most Dems, which also factored into this decision. He keeps 52% of his old territory, with the balance coming from the 10th. Obama romped with a 28% victory, and Deeds even scored an 8% win here.
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 726,728 | 6.69% | 14.60% | 20.33% | 59.46% | 39.56% | 48.16% | 51.68% |
| Fairfax | 677,449 | 6.75% | 14.82% | 20.12% | 59.69% | 39.33% | 48.49% | 51.34% |
| Fairfax City | 22,565 | 4.75% | 15.76% | 15.21% | 57.69% | 41.16% | 46.91% | 52.98% |
| Loudoun | 26,714 | 6.85% | 7.98% | 29.86% | 54.50% | 44.69% | 37.43% | 62.46% |
The 10th has grown massively, and accordingly, needed to contract. This iteration of the 10th becomes an almost all-Fairfax affair, with a slight section of Loudoun added. This would have swingy-ish characteristics in bad years, but Obama won by 20 and Deeds only lost by 3.5; both Shannon and Wagner won here as well. Only 30%, though, is from the old 10th (30%), with more being from the old 11th (54%); this district is probably a bit more inner suburban than outer (think Annandale v. Sterling).
| County | Pop | Black% | Hisp% | Asian% | Obama% | McCain% | Deeds% | McD% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 727,237 | 18.72% | 21.55% | 9.69% | 61.05% | 38.08% | 46.98% | 52.89% |
| Fairfax | 321,960 | 15.98% | 19.52% | 12.30% | 62.16% | 36.93% | 50.62% | 49.23% |
| Manassas City | 37,821 | 13.72% | 31.40% | 4.98% | 55.17% | 43.85% | 38.00% | 61.92% |
| Manassas Park City | 14,273 | 12.98% | 32.54% | 8.97% | 59.49% | 39.47% | 39.83% | 60.17% |
| Prince William | 353,183 | 21.99% | 21.90% | 7.84% | 60.51% | 38.66% | 43.76% | 56.10% |
Gerry Connolly’s district shifts southward a bit, taking in more of Prince William County. But unlike before, this district takes in the southern (and Democratic) part of PW. Connolly retains 47% of his old territory, but the parts he sheds he won’t necessarily miss. Interestingly, Obama did better here than in the new 10th (23 point win), but this area swung harder against the Dems in 09, with Shannon and Wagner losing by 1 and Deeds by 6. This, of course, is still an improvement over the 10-point loss Deeds suffered in the current 11th.
Is the 5th connected? I can’t really tell.
Is this a sneak preview of things to come?
I think we will see some sort of compromise in VA. There’s a chance it ends up in court-federal court-but I think we see a modified incumbent protection plan.
I think VA11 comes out more democratic-VA5-VA2-VA4 stay about the same while VA10 is weakened a bit as it loses that stuff in the NW part of the district.
I think that can be sorted out. I could be wrong.
I do think we will see an early indication of whatever approach the DOJ will take. VA or LA or MS will be racing to see who gets there 1st .
wouldn’t this be more appropriate for California? 😛
As a lifelong Virginia Dem and former intern for Congressman Perriello, I heartily approve of this gerrymander. Great work.