I thought as me first diary I should take a look at what lies ahead in 2012. Take in mind, while I do take in mind facts in each state, these are purely speculative and should be taken with a grain of salt. However, I do put in mind three factors which I think would affect state by state results:
1.) Obama on the ballot: With Barack Obama most likely running for reelection, his presence on the ballot should increase Democratic turnout that was not present in Virginia or New Jersey in 2009, and will definitely have an impact of key states.
2.) Tea Party: Just as Obama’s presence will mobilize the left, I expect the Tea Party to have the same impact on the Republicans as they are currently having during the current primary calendar.
3.) 2011 Redistricting: I suspect by the time the states redraw their Congressional Districts, a number of House members may be drawn out of their old districts and may be seeking greener pastures of higher office.
So here’s my completely speculative predictions for 2012. I’ll look at the Senate first:
Arizona: Jon Kyl, once looking like a dead duck, seems to have gotten a second wind with immigration reform once again front and centre. Gabrielle Giffords is probably the most likely challenger, however at this point it doesn’t look like Kyl will be unseated.
Kyl 51%, Giffords 47%, Others 2%
California: Dianne Feinstein will be 79 years old, and while normal people expect someone that age to retire, this is after all the United States Senate, so I’m working with the assumption that Feinstein is running for reelection. Schwarzenegger is the only statewide Republican who’s won statewide, so I’ll use him as a template.
Feinstein 55%, Terminator 41%, Others 4%
Connecticut: Three words: Murphy vs. Lieberman. Republicans won’t even run a candidate to give Joementum a better chance to win.
Murphy 52%, Lieberman 48%
Delaware: I actually think Tom Carper will retire. Beau Biden, after recovering from his health scare, will make up for not running for his father’s seat. Republicans will pick a sacrifical lamb.
Biden 56%, Republican 44%
Florida: I’ve got three different scenarios for this one. George Lemieux might run, and possibly Jeb Bush. Marco Rubio does NOT win in 2010, and tries to take on Bill Nelson.
Nelson 53%, Lemieux 46%, Others 1%
Bush 57%, Nelson 40%, Others 3%
Rubio 51%, Nelson 48%, Others 1%
Hawaii: At 88 years in 2012, I’m guessing Akaka’s going to retire. Linda Lingle is going to run. In case Akaka doesn’t retire:
Lingle 51%, Democrat 49%
Indiana: I think Lugar’s got one more term in him, but this time the Dems aren’t letting him get away unopposed like last time; I’m just going to pull Baron Hill out of my arse here. Look for the Tea Party to make some kind of third party bid here.
Lugar 60%, Hill 30%, Tea Partier 10%
Maine: Tea Party makes good on its threat. Snowe faces a primary challenge and LOSES. Shockwaves are felt for about a week before people focus on the race. Mike Michaud runs for the Democrats and gets easiest pickup ever.
Michaud 58%, Republican 42%
Maryland: I think Cardin’s pretty weak. If the GOP finds another Michael Steele type candidate (I mean Steele before he became RNC Chairman), namely a black Republican, they might have a chance.
Black Republican 49.8%, Cardin 47.2%, Others 3%
Massachusetts: Pretty sure everyone is going to be watching this one come election night. Brown is popular now, but with Obama on the ballot and strong Democratic turnout this isn’t going to be the lucky break he got with Martha Coakley. Let’s just use Michael Capuano as the expected candidate.
Brown 51%, Capuano 49%
Michigan: This might be Stabenow’s last stand. The popularity of Dems in Michigan has gone down because of the economy, but with Obama on the ballot there is still a chance she could be saved. But this would depend if the GOP nominates a Tea Partier or a moderate Republican. Let’s use Dick DeVos as an example.
DeVos 50%, Stabenow 49%, Others 1%
Minnesota: I don’t see Amy Klobuchar losing at all.
Klobuchar 62%, Republican 36%, Others 2%
Mississippi: Same thing with Roger Wicker I see with Klobuchar.
Wicker 61%, Democrat 39%
Missouri: This is most likely going to be a McCaskill/Talent rematch.
McCaskill 52%, Talent 48%
Montana: Montana only has one Congressional district, so it’s not going to be changed anyway. Still, Denny Rehberg might be interested in running against a less stronger candidate like Jon Tester, who squeaked past the hapless Conrad Burns by a hair.
Rehberg 54%, Tester 44%, Others 2%
Nebraska: a Rasmussen poll last year showed Gov. Dave Heineman leading Ben Nelson by 31 points. Heineman’s very popular and could be seeking higher office after reelection this year. Either Nelson’s going to retire, or Heineman is going to run against him.
Heineman 59%, Nelson 41%
Heineman 70%, Some Other Guy 30%
That’s all I’ve got for now. Stay tuned for Part 2 of me Ridiculous 2012 Senate Predictions.
I have trouble seeing Mr. “I Drive a Truck” winning a full term in MA. I think only one Sen. Brown will win in ’12 and that will be the one from Ohio…
Feinstein is retiring. Schwartznegger wouldn’t even win a Republican primary against Chuck DeVore and if he did he would get crushed. Two, Loretta Sanchez or Debra Bowen will be running to replace her.
on the planet where the Presidential results are: Sarah Palin 55% Obama 43%.
However, if we are on Earth, then these predictions are truly ridiculous indeed.
On what planet are the Republicans not running someone against an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats and was the crucial vote for some of the most important legislation the Leadership put up for a vote? No way in Hell will there be no Republican candidate.
Hawaii: Lingle would perform better than other Republicans would, but in a Presidential year, she couldn’t win in a heavy blue state like this. Especially when the President was born in Hawaii.
Maryland: Cardin won handily last time against a Black Republican, so it’s not like that gave the GOP an edge last time. Like with Hawaii, in a Presidential year, a seat like this isn’t going to flip to the Republicans.
Massachusetts: One of the Democrats’ top priorities will be to regain this seat. Scott Brown is a one hit wonder and he’d have a tough time keeping this seat even in a non-Presidential year.
Some of your premises are pretty crazy:
Florida: I have no idea why you think that Rubio would be able to defeat Nelson while LeMieux would not (especially given that Rubio would already be a losing candidate who was defeated by Charlie Crist and would probably be painted as being an extremist). Furthermore, I doubt Jeb Bush runs for Senator in 2012 if his goal is to be President in 2016.
Hawaii: Hawaii is a Democratic state with a lot of Democratic candidates who would have no problem whatsoever doing well in Obama’s birth state. As others have said, I have no problem believing that Lingle would do better, but better isn’t winning either.
Maryland: You think an uncontroversial Democratic senator in a heavily Democratic year is likely to lose to a random black Republican? Really? To refresh some memories, at the time, Michael Steele wasn’t a joke candidate who found himself running surprisingly close, he was the freaking Lt. Governor and was highly touted by Republicans (and generally recognized by Democrats) to be a very serious get (Democratic year or not).
Michigan: Democratic fortunes aside, I don’t buy that Stabenow will just be a goner in the state, especially if the Republicans win the governor’s mansion this year.
Montana: Tester, from what I’ve gathered, has actually been reasonably popular and there’s a pretty good chance that Baucus is going to retire in 2014. Why run against an incumbent, when an open seat can be his for the taking?
Nebraska: I don’t know why so many people are so quick to assume that Ben Nelson is an automatic loser in 2012. He originally won his seat in 2000, when Al Gore lost the state to George Bush 62-33 (30 points!). Barack Obama lost the state to John McCain 56-41 (15 points). Nelson was able to outperform Gore’s margin by well over 30 points, even if Obama’s numbers aren’t quite as good in 2012 as they were in 2008, Nelson isn’t an electoral push-over (even in a state like Nebraska).
FL: Rubio cannot beat Nelson. Indeed, Rubio cannot win a primary again after flaming out against Crist this November, which will leave him humiliated and end his political life. Jeb Bush could be Nelson, but I doubt he wants a Senate seat. If Jeb ever runs again, it will be for President, and that, too, is extremely remote.
ME: Teabaggers are overrated. Predicting a Snowe defeat is the stuff of our Bluest Wet Dreams. Even now they lose more than they win. And ultimately enough Maine GOPers either like Snowe, or are going to be smart enough to realize dumping Snowe means handing the seat to Team Blue, to give her a decisive primary win. That said, I don’t question there will be an ultimately weak primary challenge.
MD: I don’t know WHAT yer smokin’ here! What “black Republican” do you have in mind? There aren’t any, Steele was it, and he was plausible only because he was Ehrlich’s hand-picked LG. There are no white Republicans, either, who can beat Cardin. Or Republicans of any other race. Cardin is safe.
MI: This is almost as bad a prediction as MD. Stabenow isn’t going to lose to DeVos. DeVos can’t beat any Democrat.
HI: we’re not going to lose Hawaii in 2012. Obama coattails will be decisive.
MO: where do you get the notion that Talent will go for a rematch? That makes no sense when he just passed up an open seat just 4 years after losing! Agree McCaskill ought to survive, but it won’t be against Talent.
All that said, I could easily see Ben Nelson and Jon Tester losing as you predict, and I can see Scott Brown surviving even against Obama surge turnout.
Here’s my big surprise that I’ve touted for quite awhile, even as it makes me cringe: Lieberman running as a Democrat, winning the primary, and coasting to a blowout November win. I’ve long said on SSP that that’s his only plausible path to victory. A serious Democrat, rather than a no-name like Lamont (I realize he’s no longer a no-name but he was then), will seek the Democratic nomination if it’s there for the taking, and Republicans won’t embrace Lieberman again since the Iraq War will be distant history and no other issue draws them to him. So Lieberman can’t win as in indy again, the Republicans won’t take him as their official nominee, and that leaves him running as a Dem. The key is whether his running in the Democratic primary as a long-term incumbent scares off Murphy and others. If not, I do think Murphy beats him and others likely would, too. But fear of defeat often is enough to scare off challengers.
I agree with Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Minnesota, Missouri, and Mississippi. What you predict in Maryland is laughable even if Obama loses in a landslide. With Michigan, as long as Obama wins the state, so will Stabanow. Incumbents dont lose in states that their Presidential party candidate carries unless they are involved in scandal(Ted Stevens).
liked this diary in the sense that it created a good discussion about the 2012 race, but I do not see your predictions coming to pass unless it is a really bad year for us.
I would like to see a diary or some comments about the 2012 gubernatorial elections. What states seem likely to switch partisan control of their statehouses in 2012? Which ones will have competitive elections? Montana seems to be a likely flip to me because it is a Republican presidential voting state and before Schweitzer had several terms of Republican governors.
North Carolina seems unpredictable. As a Tarheel state native and resident, I have come to see the state’s politics as mostly favoring Democrats but Republicans have often shown strength. North Carolina begining with Reagan in 1980 voted for the Republican presidential candidates until 2008. Since 1980, it has mostly elected Democratic governors and a Democratic General Assembly while it has had roughly equal partisan representation among its Congressional delegation. Now in 2010, the Republicans are probably more likely than not to win a majority of state senate seats and the state house will be close. Pat McCrory, former mayor of Charlotte, seems sure to be the Republican nominee for governor in 2012 to go for a rematch against embattled governor Bev Perdue. Obama barely won the state in 2008 and I think predicting how the state will go at the presidential level in 2012 is premature. If Charlotte hosts the Democratic National Convention in 2012, that could be a wildcard. Even if that happens, however, Obama could be unpopular enough for the convention location not to matter.
Indiana is another unpredictable state for 2012. If Bayh runs, people seem to think he should be favored. However, I would be interested in knowing how his approval rating is currently and how him voting for the health care bill has impacted how people view him. Lieutenant Governor Becky Skillman seems to be a good candidate for governor for the Republicans partly owing to how succesful Mitch Daniels has been as governor.
Along with North Carolina and Indiana, Missouri will most likely be competitive because it has switched partisan affiliations of governors in recent years and has been close at the presidential level. Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder is sure to be the Republican nominee against governor Jay Nixon and Kinder is a very strong candidate for the Republicans. The Missouri General Assembly has strong Republican majorities in both houses. New Hampshire and Vermont, with their governors being elected to two year terms, probably have their 2012 gubernatorial elections much based on what happens in 2010. New Hampshire will be heavily influenced by whether John Lynch runs in 2012 (he seems favored this year). Washington could be competitive. It is a Democratic state for presidential voting and other levels but Dino Rossi performed well for the Republicans in 2004 and decently in 2008. Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna seems sure to be the Republican nominee and has shown bipartisan support. Going against what most likely will be an Obama wave in Washington will be tough for McKenna.
Arizona (Kyl) Likely R
California (Feinstein) Safe D, (Open) Likely D
Connecticut
I’m not even going to speculate on this one. Too many factors involved. Joe might jump to the GOP after 2011, so who knows.
Delaware (Carper) Safe D, (Open) Safe D
Florida (Bill Nelson)
Jeb Bush, Lean R
Rubio, Tossup
Lemeieux, Lean D
Hawaii (Akaka) Safe D, (Open) Safe D
Indiana (Lugar) Safe R, (Open) Lean R
Maine (Snowe) Safe R, (Open) Lean D
Maryland (Cardin) Safe D
Massachusetts (Brown) Lean R
Michigan (Stabenow) Likely D
Minnesota (Klobuchar) Safe D
Mississippi (Wicker) Likely R
Missouri (McCaskill) Tossup
Montana (Tester) Tossup
Nebraska (Nelson) Tossup
Safe Dem:
California
Delaware
Maryland
Minnesota
New Mexico
New York
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin
Likely Dem:
Hawaii
Michigan
New Jersey
Lean Dem:
Florida
North Dakota
Ohio
Toss-up:
Connecticut
Missouri
Montana
West Virginia
Lean GOP:
Massachusetts
Nebraska
Likely GOP:
Arizona
Maine
Nevada
Texas
Safe GOP:
Indiana
Mississippi
Tennessee
Utah
Wyoming