I’m curious what SSP’ers think about RealClearPolitics US House rankings for November. They’re fairly bleak reading: RCP ranks 24 Dem seats as “leaning” or “likely” Republican, with three Republican seats ranked as “leaning” or “likely” Democratic. So right off the bat, they have the Republicans with a 21-seat gain.
On its own, that wouldn’t be surprising; it’s the “tossups” that are.
Beyond the 21-seat net GOP gain RCP sets as a base, they project that there are 30 Democratic seats (and one Republican seat) that are in the “tossup” category. What’s so bleak about this picture is that if we assume the 21 pickups they do, and a GOP-leaning electorate, that would indicate they’d get more than half of the tossups, giving them a majority.
Certainly, this would be consistent with the TPM and Pollster Generic Ballot average, which are looking especially bleak.
To be fair, there are some important caveats. The generic ballot does not look good, but it seems to be particularly skewed by Rasmussen, which has a 48-36 GOP advantage right now, and Gallup, whose polls have swung wildly. In the Pollster database, if you filter both of those out, you get a narrow 1-point GOP generic ballot advantage.
More on point about the RCP average – could they be over-optimistic? GOP gains of 40+ or even 50+ are certainly possible, given the political climate. But it does seem like several of those races listed as “lean GOP” should be listed as tossups. And although RCP is relatively non-partisan in their polling averages, they are a GOP site.
Any thoughts? I’d be interested in hearing more from people who know these races better than I do.
Of gaining 40-50 seats because there a very conservative polling site and the alternative to Nate Silver’s fivethrityeight. I believe a 30 seat gain for the GOP but I don’t believe everything they say.
is that this paints a washout, 1994-esque scenario for this upcoming election.
Here are some seats I have a beef with:
OH-13 – Tossup – Really? Just because the incumbent is rich and an internal showed him tied? Cmon.
WV-3 – Lean D – That’s laughable. Rahall isn’t going anywhere, even GOP internals have him up by 16.
NC-2 – Lean D – Seems like the GOP is trying to trick themselves into thinking Bob Etheridge is vulnerable. He isn’t.
OH-16 – Lean R – Oh right, like I’m supposed to believe that a guy who won an R-leaning open seat by 10% is chopped liver.
PA-7 – Lean R – A bit of a stretch considering the bumbling we’ve seen from the Meehan campaign this far (signatures anyone?)
NC-8 – Lean R – Since when did Kissell become an underdog for re-election. Cook had him Likely D last month. wtf?
TX-17 – Lean R – This is Chet Freaking Edwards they’re talking about here. I doubt his chances too, but not like this.
CO-4 – Lean R – I’m pretty sure Markey is leading now, especially with civil war erupting in the CO GOP.
NV-3 – Lean R – Did they not see the last two polls with Titus in the lead? More wishful thinking.
SD-1 – Lean R – Granted I didn’t see the poop ad, but somehow I don’t think Scotty Rass tells the whole story here.
They are taking GOP internals as a given. It is a worse case scenario nothing more.
Most of the districts they show favoring one party or the other look reasonable. I’m not sure about these:
IA-3 (lean D). The polls showing Boswell behind were R internals, but this is probably at least a tossup.
NC-8 (lean R). Kissell is notorious for being unable to raise money, but is he really behind here?
TX-17 (lean R). Edwards is used to this.
WI-7 (lean R). Obey held this district for eons, and the D is better on paper.
Suspicious-looking tossups:
IN-9. The R released an internal showing him way behind against one of the most battle-tested reps in the whole D caucus.
MA-10. To win anything in that state, the R candidate must be much more appealing than the D.
NM-1? Heinrich won by double digits last time against a tough opponent.
NY-1. Bishop beat an R incumbent here in the Ds’ all-time low year of 2002 and has not had any trouble since.
NY-13? This used to be an R district, but aren’t they running around like headless chickens the way they did in 2008?
OH-13. This district is D+5 and Sutton has never had any trouble.
PA-12. Critz just schooled Burns in an off-month election.
VA-9. The only poll I saw had Boucher up by double digits.
And some of the tossups rank lower that tossup. This is too optimistic for Republicans, I predict a 24-27 seat gain, 30 seats at most.
I am not adverse to their upward number as I have been predicting a 30-55 seat gain for the Republicans for awhile, but some of their race specific results are odd. I really would not consider PA-17 in play and PA-12 is obviously safer. I also doubt Salazar is that endangered. He might have a fight, but that name is golden on the Western Slope.
I’ve heard nothing to suggest this one will be competitve. The real sleeper in the state (after the obviously competitve one in MA-10) is next door with the rather anonymous Niki Tsongas in MA-05. Heck, I could even see Barney Frank going down symbolically in a wave before Tierney loses this seat.
…of course ANY pre-labor day rankings should be taken with a grain of salt. Unlike us political junkies most people don’t even start paying attention before then.
Far too many Democratic incumbents are being placed in lean Republican too early. Incumbents always have huge advantages that they can ramp up by election day. Even candidates that self-immolate themselves in hostille years or are way way out of step for their district or state only end up losing by the narrowest of margins (see Conrad Burns and Rod Grams).
Their tossup column also is suspect. NY-13 is not a seat to be as taken for granted as some here think. But it is not a pure tossup either. McMahon is very much in the drivers seat from all available polling.
Most of the lean Republicans are tossups. And most of the tossups are lean dem.
That is not to say Democats couldn’t lose all they are projecting and all the tossups they mention as well. There are a lot of close races and strong winds could blow a lot of houses down. But their rankings seem more like Republican wishfull thinking than the current landscape.
I really don’t care what they’re rankings are.
It was founded by rightwingers, and it’s editorial slant and coverage is right wing.