Tag: US House

Feel free to comment, share opinions.  There are a lot more house races and it’s harder to draw clear distinctions when ranking them compared to ranking the US Senate races.  I am posting this to get feedback, and to compare information.  

I also don’t want the diary to be too long, so I’m not going to post financial information on here, but I will link SSP’s two diaries.  

Here: http://www.swingstateproject.c… (Everything except IN and NC)

And Here: http://www.swingstateproject.c… (IN and NC)

*** = Retiring Incumbent/Open Seat

DCCC’s Red to Blue List: http://www.dccc.org/page/conte…

====House Republicans====

1. New York-25***  (D+3)

Dan Maffei v. ???

2. Illinois-11***  (R+1)

Debbie Halvorson v. ???

3. New Jersey-03*** (D+3)

John Adler v. Chris Myers

4. Arizona-01*** (R+2)

Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay

5. New Jersey-07*** (R+1)

Linda Stender v. Kate Whitman

———————————————————————

6. Minnesota-03*** (R+1)

Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulson

7. Michigan-07 (R+2)

Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg

8. New York-26*** (R+3)

Jon Powers v. ???

9. Ohio-15*** (R+1)

Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers

10. Ohio-16*** (R+4)

John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring

11. Alabama-02*** (R+13)

Bobby Bright v. Harri Anne Smith

———————————————————————

12. Louisiana-06*** (R+7)   Special Election – May 3rd

Don Cazayoux v. Woody Jenkins

13. New York-29 (R+5)

Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl

14. Washington-08 (D+2)

Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert

15. Missouri-06 (R+5)

Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves

16. Florida-24 (R+3)

Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney

17. Alaska-AL (R+14)

Ethan Berkowitz v. Representative Don Young

18. Virginia-11*** (R+1)

Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian

19. Connecticut-04 (D+5)

Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays

20. North Carolina-08 (R+3)

Larry Kissell v. Representative Robert Hayes

21. Michigan-09 (R+0)

Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg

22. Illinois-10 (D+4)

Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk

23. Virginia-05 (R+6)

Tom Perriello v. Representative Virgil Goode

24. Nevada-03 (D+1)

Robert Daskas v. Representative Jon Porter

25. New Mexico-01*** (D+2)

Martin Heinrich v. Darren White

26. Mississippi-01*** (R+10) Special Election – May 13th

Travis Childers v. Greg Davis

27. Missouri-09*** (R+7)

Robert Gaw v. Bob Onder

28. Colorado-04 (R+9)

Betsy Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave

———————————————————————

29. Louisiana-04*** (R+7)

Paul Carmouche v. Chris Gorman

30. Ohio-01 (R+1)

Steve Dreihaus v. Representative Steve Chabot

31. Wyoming-AL*** (R+19)

Gary Trauner v. Mark Gordon

32. California-04*** (R+11)

Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock

33. Idaho-01 (R+19)

Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali

34. Ohio-02 (R+13)

Victoria Wulsin v. Representative Jean Schmitt

35. Arizona-03 (R+6)

Bob Lord v. Representative John Shadegg

36. West Virginia-02 (R+5)

Anne Barth v. Representative Shelly Capito Moore

37. Virginia-02 (R+6)

Glenn Nye v. Representative Thelma Drake

38. Florida-13 (R+4)

Christine Jennings v. Representative Vernon Buchanon

39. Pennsylvania-15 (D+2)

Siobhan Bennett v. Representative Charlie Dent

40. Texas-10 (R+13)

Larry Doherty v. Representative Mike McCaul

———————————————————————

41. New Mexico-02*** (R+6)

Bill McCamley v. Ed Tinsley  

42. Ohio-14 (R+2)

William O’Neill v. Representative Steven Latourette

43. New Jersey-05 (R+4)

Dennis Shulman v. Representative Scott Garrett

44. Texas-07 (R+16)

Michael Skelly v. Representative John Culberson

45. California-50 (R+5)

Nick Leibham v. Representative Brian Bilbray

46. Florida-21 (R+6)

Raul Martinez v. Representative Lincoln Diaz Balart

47. Florida-08 (R+3)

Charles Stuart v. Representative Richard Keller

48. Nevada-02 (R+8)

Jill Derby v. Representative Dean Heller

49. Florida-25 (R+4)

Joe Garcia v. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart

50. Alabama-03 (R+4)

Josh Segall v. Representative Mike Rogers

51. Florida-18 (R+4)

Annette Taddeo v. Representative Ros-Lehtinen

52. Illinois-06 (R+3)

Jill Morgenthaler v. Representative Peter Roskam

53. Indiana-03 (R+16)

Michael Montagano v. Representative Mike Souder

54. Indiana-04 (R+17)

Nels Ackerson v. Representative Steve Buyer

55. California-26 (R+4)

Russ Warner v. Representative David Dreier

56. Pennsylvania-03

Kathleen Dahlkemper v. Representative Phil English

57. Pennsylvania-18

Steve O’Donnell v. Representative Tim Murphy

58. Illinois-18*** (R+5)

Colleen Callahan v. Aaron Schock

59. Pennsylvania-05*** (R+10)

Mark McCracken v. Glenn Thompson

60. Florida-10 (D+1)

Linn Max v. Representative Bill Young

====House Democrats====

1. Oregon-05*** (D+1)

Kurt Shrader v. Michael Erickson

2. Texas-22 (R+15)

Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson

3. Kansas-02 (R+7)

Representative Nancy Boyda v. Jim Ryun

4. Florida-16 (R+2)

Representative Tim Mahoney v. Tom Romey

———————————————————————

5. Alabama-05*** (R+6)

Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker

6. Georgia-08 (R+8)

Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard

7. Kentucky-03 (D+2)

Representative John Yarmuth v. Anne Northup

8. Pennsylvania-04 (R+3)

Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart

9. New Hampshire-01 (R+0)

Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley

10. Indiana-09 (R+7)

Representative Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel

11. Pennsylvania-10 (R+8)

Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett

12. Arizona-08 (R+1)

Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee

13. New York-20 (R+3)

Representative Kirsten Gillibrand v. Alexander Treadwell

14. Indiana-08 (R+9)

Representative Brad Ellsworth v. Greg Goode

15. California-11 (R+3)

Representative Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal

———————————————————————

16. Arizona-05 (R+4)

Representative Harry Mitchell v. David Schweikert

17. Connecticut-05 (D+4)

Representative Chris Murphy v. David Cappiello

18. Connecticut-02 (D+8)

Representative Joe Courtney v. Sean Sullivan

19. North Carolina-11 (R+7)

Representative Heath Schuler v. Spence Campbell

20. Texas-23 (R+4)

Representative Ciro Rodriguez v. Lyle Larson

21. Wisconsin-08 (R+4)

Representative Steve Kagen v. John Gard

22. Ohio-18 (R+6)

Representative Zach Space v. Fred Dailey

23. Georgia-12 (D+2)

Representative John Barrow v. John Stone

24. Indiana-02 (R+4)

Representative Joe Donnelly v. Luke Puckett

25. Minnesota-01 (R+10)

Representative Tim Walz v. Dick Day

26. New York-19 (R+1)

Representative John Hall v. Kieran Lalor

Notes:

– In contests where the primary has not yet occured, I have picked the person who has fundraised the most.  

– 60 Vulnerable/Potentially Vulnerable House Republicans

– Prediction is 20-30 Democratic pickups in the US House

– Current Breakdown of the US House 234D-198R Representatives (3 Outstanding)

– Projected Outcome of the US House 256D-179R Representatives

– 25 Retiring Republicans

Tiers:

(Republicans)

Tier 1 – Races #1-#5 = Likely Democratic Pickup

Tier 2 – Races #6-#11 = Lean Democratic Pickup

Tier 3 – Races #12-#28 = Toss Up

Tier 4 – Races #29-#40 = Lean Republican Retention

Tier 5 – Races #41-#60 = Likely Republican Retention

(Democrats)

Tier 1 – Races #1-#4 = Toss Up

Tier 2 – Races #5-#15 = Lean Democratic Retention

Tier 3 – Races #16-#26 = Likely Democratic Retention

I previously diaried on the potential pickup opportunities in 2008 in Florida at dailykos (http://www.dailykos….).

It was suggested to me that I also post them here and I have updated a few of the situations.

Now I see an opportunity for Democrats to swing as many as two to five seats to the Democratic column in Florida.

Here are the rankings with this information:
(District: Representative (PVI, 2004 Election, 2006 Election, Funds Raised in 2006 of Republican – Democrat)

Toss-Up

8th District: Ric Keller (R+3, 61% – 39%, 53% – 46%, $1,225,000 – $918,000)

This could possibly be the best Democratic pick-up opportunity in Florida for 2008. Keller was first elected to the Orlando area seat in 2000, winning in a Republican primary runoff race after rallying on an 8-year term pledge that his opponent would not agree to. He went on to beat the Democratic opponent with only 51% of the vote. His seat was redistricted in 2002 to be more Republican friendly, yet it still has a low PVI. In 2006, his election victory was anything but impressive, as he held on with just 53% of the vote. Now he has said he is going to go against his term limit pledge that won him election in 2000. He has also voted against Stem Cell Research. Both of these issues could be crucial in a funded 2008 election contest, which is definitely going to happen.

13th District: Vern Buchanan (R+4, 0%, 50% – 50%, $6,064,000 – $2, 051,000)

We all know the story here. The 2006 election was stolen from Democrat Christine Jennings. If Jennings does not get the seat now, there is going to be a big 2008 election battle. It is actually amazing Jennings did so well, considering Buchanan’s massive war chest. It just shows where the district stands.

Update: Sided with Bush on Iraq escalation resolution.

Toss-Up (Possible Retirement)

10th District: Bill Young (D+1, 69% – 31%, 66% – 34%, $550,000 – $32,000)

This district covers Pinellas County and Young has been the representative there since 1971, despite the slight Democratic lean of the district. At 76 years of age and also the most senior Republican member of the House of Representatives, it is very well possible Young might retire, especially since his party has now gone into minority status. He previously held the position of Chairman of Committee on Appropriations and now has been delegated to ranking minority member on the Subcommittee on Defense. There was speculation even before the 2006 election that he would retire, but he ran again. Now speculation will build even more in the months to come, as his power in the House has disappeared. If the seat becomes open, it should be a very costly election of which the Democrats have a great chance of winning. If he runs again, there will probably be little chance of picking up the seat. What we should do is try to recruit a really good candidate now and that might speed up Young’s decision. Chances are he does not want to face a tough reelection battle if he does run again, so if we get a good candidate early we could scare him into retirement.

Update: With the news of the Walter Reed situation (http://www.dailykos….), the chances of a retirement may be increasing even further. It’s time to push him into retirement.

Young also sided with Bush on the Iraq escalation resolution and this is a Dem district. It’s time to really start hammering him.

Slight Republican Lean

15th District: Dave Weldon (R+3, 65% – 35%, 56% – 44%, $727,000 – $91,000)

First elected in 1994, Weldon is serving a fairly moderate district, with only a slight Republican advantage. Match that with his far-right voting record and that is why this seat will be competitive in 2008. One of his big blunders was his efforts to keep Terry Schiavo alive. He faced a lot of criticism from his central Florida district for that. But he has also had a far-right voting record, including his vote against Stem Cell Research in the last Congress and this one. In this Congress, he has voted down 9/11 Rec., Minimum Wage, Medicare Negotiation, Student Loans, Alternative Energy, and Stem Cell Research. His 2006 election performance was terrible and he had more than seven times the amount of money as his opponent, but he garnered just 56% of the vote. He should and will face a tough reelection battle in 2008.

Update: Sided with Bush on Iraq escalation resolution.

21st District: Lincoln Diaz-Balart (73% – 27%, 59% – 41%)

Lincoln is a Cuban politician who has represented the Miami 21st district since 1993. Lincoln could certainly be vulnerable. The district is fairly moderate and has had low turn out, only 111,000 voters in 2006. The election in 2008 could provide a great opportunity for Democrats to go after the Cuban vote, with older Cubans becoming less influential and possible changes in Cuba in the future.

Update: See Cuban Vote (http://www.dailykos….)

24th District: Tom Feeney (R+3, 100%, 58% – 42%, $1,295,000 – $44,000)

The Orlando area district is moderate, but Feeney is on the extreme far right-wing of the Republican Party. Feeney is so conservative that he has developed a Conservative Check Card for members in Congress when voting on legislation. He voted against all bills of the 100 Hours Plan, absolutely everything. In 2006, he was named as one of the 20 Most Corrupt Members of Congress by CREW. Most notably, he has faced controversies for lobbyist paid trips he has taken. He was first elected in 2002, faced no opponent in 2004, and in 2006, as can be seen he did not have an impressive victory. In fact, his opponent had 26 times less funds to use in 2006, making the election even more miraculous. Tom Feeney should be hammered in 2008. He is far right on the issues compared to his moderate district. This district is winnable.

Update: Sided with Bush on Iraq Escalation resolution.

25th District: Mario Diaz-Balart (R+4, 100%, 58% – 42%, $658,000 – $35,000)

Mario is the brother of Lincoln Diaz-Balart and he is in a similar district, slightly less Republican, in Miami. The district also had low turn out in 2006, with just around 102,000 voters. Democrats should make a strong effort to win the 21st and the 25th district in 2008. Perhaps some kind of campaign plan could be made to campaign against both the brothers at the same time. A key issue could be Stem Cell Research, both of them voted against it.

Update: See Cuban Vote (http://www.dailykos….)

Leans Republican

5th District: Ginny Brown-Waite (66% – 34%, 60% – 40%, $736,000 – $80,000)

The district was previously represented by a Democrat, Karen Thurman, who is now Chairman of the Florida Democratic Party. However, after redistricting Brown-Waite took the district narrowly in 2002. The district is still somewhat moderate, though, and around 250,000 people in the district receive Social Security checks. Brown-Waite has had many controversies since running for office. In 2002, her husband was caught stealing Thurman campaign signs. In 2004, she faced criticism for sending free Congress mailings to constituents before the election. She has also defended Muslim hate-rhetoric. If we were going after candidates for disgust fullness, Brown-Waite would probably be our first choice. She has been a terrible representative and has not upheld the honor of the House nor of the people of her district. If we want to go after her in 2008, her vote against Prescription Drugs Negotiation could be a start.

6th District: Cliff Stearns (64 – 36%, 60% – 40%, $775,000 – $123,000)

Stearns has represented the district since 1989, when he won an open seat previously held by a Democrat. He did lose support from 2004 to 2006 and it will be interesting to see if we can continue that trend throughout the next two years.

9th District: Gus Bilirakis (R+4, 0%, 56% – 44%, $2,557,000 – $1,174,000)

Bilirakis just won this seat in 2006 after it was vacated by his father, who spent 23 years in the seat. It is still only a slight Republican district. And Bilirakis has set himself up as a target in 2008 by voting against Stem Cell Research. This will be a race to watch in 2008.

18th District: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R+4, 65% – 35%, 62% – 38%, $931,000 – $59,000)

Ros-Lehtinen was first elected in 1988. She is serving a Cuban-Miami district and she is against having relations with Cuba, which is where she garners most of her support. She supports gay rights and is moderate on some other issues. However, she voted against Stem Cell Research, which should be used against her in 2008. Overall I am not quite sure Democrats have as much a chance at this district as they do the other two Republican held Miami districts.

Likely Republican

1st District: Jeff Miller (74% – 26%, 69% – 30%, $316,000 – $52,000)

The 1st district is possibly the reddest in all of Florida. It has not supported a Democratic Presidential nominee since 1960 and has not elected a Democrat to Congress since 1994. Miller first won the seat in 2001 in a special election after Joe Scarborough resigned. He has since been reelected by fairly large margins.

4th District: Ander Crenshaw (100%, 70% – 30%)

The district has not sent a Democrat to Congress since redistricting in 1992, when a Republican was first elected to the seat. Crenshaw was elected in 2000 and since has become a Deputy Majority Whip in the Republican Party. After facing no opponent in 2004, he was elected by a large margin in 2006.

7th District: John Mica (R+3, 100%, 67% – 37%, $731,000 – $21,000)

Mica first won the seat in 1992 after redistricting. In 2006, he won by a large margin, despite the fact the PVI for the district is only R+3. Based on this last election, it is unlikely the seat can be picked up, but we should still continue to challenge it like we should all districts.

12th District: Adam Putnam (65% – 35%, 69% – 19% – 12%)

There was no Democratic opponent in the race in 2006, only two independents. Putnam first won the seat in 2000 and he has faced no Democratic opponent twice since then. He now serves as the 5th ranking Republican in the House. It is doubtful Democrats could pick this seat up, but we should definitely field someone.

14th District: Connie Mack IV (68% – 32%, 64% – 36%, $1,088,000 – $29,000)

Mack was first elected in 2004, after winning an open seat previously held by Porter Goss. This is another district, where it is doubtful Democrats can win.

In all of the cases, the money battle is startling. Democrats were heavily underfunded in all of the races, but still managed to be competitive. In the races against Weldon, the two Diaz-Balart brothers, and Feeney, the Democrats were campaigning with extremely little funds, but still managed to hold the incumbents below 60% and in the case of Weldon, just 56%.

Democrats have a real shot of picking up a few seats in Florida in 2008, particularly a couple of possible surprises in Weldon and Feeney, two dedicated members of the far-right wing conservative alliance in the Republican Party.