The GOP “Death List,” SSP-Style

Markos has gotten his hands on the so-called GOP “Death List”. All it really is is a list of race ratings, but the “Washington Whispers” blog hyped it well by highlighting the most pessimistic Republican assessments.

As it happens, the five-tier heirarchy used in this list maps perfectly on to the same rating system we use here at SSP. This is what it would look like if you took the GOP chart (available in full below the fold) and whipped it up SSP-style:

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
AK-AL (Young)
AZ-01 (Open)
AZ-08 (Giffords)
CA-11 (McNerney)
FL-24 (Feeney)
IL-11 (Open)
IL-14 (Foster)
IN-09 (Hill)
KY-03 (Yarmuth)
MI-07 (Walberg)
NJ-03 (Open)
NJ-07 (Open)
NY-13 (Open)
NY-25 (Open)
NY-29 (Kuhl)
PA-04 (Altmire)
VA-11 (Open)
AZ-05 (Mitchell)
CA-04 (Open)
CO-04 (Musgrave)
GA-08 (Marshall)
KS-02 (Boyda)
LA-06 (Cazayoux)
MD-01 (Open)
MI-09 (Knollenberg)
MS-01 (Childers)
NC-08 (Hayes)
NM-01 (Open)
OH-16 (Open)
OR-05 (Open)
PA-11 (Kanjorski)
WI-08 (Kagen)
AL-02 (Open)
AL-05 (Open)
CT-04 (Shays)
IL-10 (Kirk)
LA-04 (Open)
MN-03 (Open)
MN-06 (Bachmann)
MO-06 (Graves)
MO-09 (Open)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
NM-02 (Open)
NV-03 (Porter)
NY-26 (Open)
OH-01 (Chabot)
OH-15 (Open)
PA-03 (English)
PA-10 (Carney)
TX-22 (Lampson)
WA-08 (Reichert)
WY-AL (Open)
AZ-03 (Shadegg)
CA-50 (Bilbray)
FL-08 (Keller)
FL-13 (Buchanan)
FL-21 (Diaz-Balart, L.)
FL-25 (Diaz-Balart, M.)
ID-01 (Sali)
IL-06 (Roskam)
KY-02 (Open)
NE-02 (Terry)
NJ-05 (Garrett)
NV-02 (Heller)
OH-02 (Schmidt)
PA-06 (Gerlach)
VA-02 (Drake)
VA-05 (Goode)
FL-15 (Open)
FL-16 (Mahoney)
IL-18 (Open)
OH-07 (Open)
PA-18 (Murphy)
TX-07 (Culberson)
VA-10 (Wolf)
6 D, 11 R
8 D, 7 R
4 D, 16 R
16 R
1 D, 6 R

I don’t have to run down all my disagreements with the list – that’s what this is for. But I will make one observation: The GOP is light – they are missing a lot of races. SSP has over 100 races on our House list – this one has just 75. Now, most of our additional races are fairly marginal, but by no means all of them. And in an election like this, you ignore races at your peril.

I’m glad to see the GOP acting so carelessly.

P.S. There’s also a Senate chart, which you can check out on the last page of the document.

UPDATED – Cook Makes Changes to 15 House Races

This is gonna be short because I have to get to class (and I’m in Beijing, PRC, so class starts at 5pm PDT).

Cook made the follow changes; 6 are pro-Dem and 9 are pro-Rep.  Mostly, the changes seem to be clean-up work on races for which time is running out.

AL-03 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

CA-46 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

CA-50 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

FL-18 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

ID-01 Likely Rep->Lean Rep

IL-18 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

MD-01 Likely Rep->Lean Rep

NE-02 Likely Rep->Lean Rep

NV-02 Likely Rep->Lean Rep

NY-20 Lean Dem->Likely Dem

OR-05 Lean Dem->Likely Dem

PA-18 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

TN-04 Solid Dem->Likely Dem

VA-10 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

WV-02 Lean Rep->Likely Rep

My pick for the biggest surprise move is probably Tennessee’s 4th.  I mean, seriously?  I don’t know much about this race, but it seems kinda late for that race to just now be getting competitive if he thinks the challenger can pull and upset, especially in such a pro-Dem year.

Your thoughts?  Also, can someone please tell me what the hell Cook thinks is going on TN?

Update 9:50 PM PDT,

I did some research, and TN-04’s challenger Monty Lankford seems like quite the joke.  He’s lagging significantly in COH ($99872 to Davis’ $413849) and apparently lives in the 7th district.  Either Davis’ vote to reelect internals are absolutely awful and Cook has gotten a hold of them, or Cook thinks that Davis’ declarations that he’s likely to run for governor in 2010 could hurt him.  Either of those seem possible, but I’m still not sure how Lankford manages to hit 50%.

What are the odds that Rothenberg writes another  column slamming Cook for this quixotic choice?  

JTM’s US House Rundown

Here is my personal rundown, a word document almost copy and pasted for how I see the senate races.  

Notes:

– All the numbers, names, and codes can be rather mind-numbing.  If you see any spelling or numerical errors, please tell me.  

-If you think one race should be rated more competitive than another, or less competitive than another, feel free to make your case.  I think I have a good setup, but it isn’t perfect.

-This is a more liberal prediction, how the races will be on election day.  (For example, NY25, Dan Maffei will raise and spend about two million dollars, while his opponent, who isn’t an incumbent, will raise and spend around $500,000 & The DCCC will spend money here if they think it is necessary to pickup this seat.)

– *** = Retired Incumbent

– I round fundraising down to the nearest thousand.

Republican Held Seats:

1-7 = Likely Democratic Pickup

8-14 = Lean Democratic Pickup

15-24 = Toss up

25-37 = Lean Republican Retention

38-49 = Likely Republican Retention

50-68 = Race to Watch

Democratic Held Seats:

1-3 = Toss Up

4-14 = Lean Democratic Retention

15-27 = Likely Democratic Retention

House Republicans

1. New York-25*** (D+3) – – –  R2B

Dan Maffei v. Dale Sweetland

Total Raised — $1,309,000 v. $133,000

Cash On Hand – $961,000 v. $107,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-25

2. New York-13*** (D+1) – – –  R2B

Mike McMahon v. ???

Total Raised —- $498,000 v. $0

Cash On Hand – $470,000 v. $0

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-13

3. Arizona-01*** (R+2) – – –  R2B

Ann Kirkpatrick v. Sydney Hay

Total Raised —- $968,000 v. $293,000

Cash On Hand – $668,000 v. $257,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for AZ-01

4. New Jersey-03*** (D+3) – – –  R2B

John Adler v. Chris Myers

Total Raised —- $1,719,000 v. $626,000

Cash On Hand – $1,463,000 v. $155,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NJ-03

5. Virginia-11*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Gerry Connolly v. Keith Fimian

Total Raised —- $937,000 v. $1,293,000

Cash On Hand – $275,000 v. $1,039,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for VA-11

6. Illinois-11***  (R+1) – – –  R2B

Debbie Halvorson v. Martin Ozinga

Total Raised —- $1,233,000 v. $810,000

Cash On Hand — $916,000 v. $669,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for IL-11

7. New Jersey-07*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Linda Stender v. Leonard Lance

Total Raised —- $1,545,000 v. $385,000

Cash On Hand – $1,200,000 v. $80,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NJ-07

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8. New York-26*** (R+3) – – –  R2B

Jon Powers v. Chris Lee

Total Raised —- $869,000 v. $670,000

Cash On Hand – $488,000 v. $636,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NY-26

9. New Mexico-01*** (D+2) – – –  R2B

Martin Heinrich v. Darren White

Total Raised — $1,240,000 v. $905,000

Cash On Hand — $354,000 v. $634,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NM-01

10. Michigan-07 (R+2) – – –  R2B

Mark Schauer v. Representative Tim Walberg

Total Raised — $1,330,000 v. $1,208,000

Cash On Hand — $928,000 v. $855,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for MI-07

11. Minnesota-03*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Ashwin Madia v. Erik Paulson

Total Raised — $1,052,000 v. $1,393,000

Cash On Hand — $738,000 v. $1,123,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for MN-03

12. Ohio-15*** (R+1) – – –  R2B

Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers

Total Raised —- $1,559,000 v. $1,216,000

Cash On Hand – $1,163,000 v. $879,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for OH-15

13. Washington-08 (D+2) – – –  R2B

Darcy Burner v. Representative Dave Reichert

Total Raised —- $1,959,000 v. $1,487,000

Cash On Hand – $1,248,000 v. $916,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for WA-08

14. Ohio-16*** (R+4) – – –  R2B

John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring

Total Raised — $1,081,000 v. $819,000

Cash On Hand — $531,000 v. $348,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for OH-16

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15. New York-29 (R+5) – – –  R2B

Eric Massa v. Representative Randy Kuhl

Total Raised — $1,158,000 v. $943,000

Cash On Hand — $652,000 v. $618,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NY-29

16. North Carolina-08 (R+3) – – –  R2B

Larry Kissell v. Representative Robert Hayes

Total Raised —- $610,000 v. $2,207,000

Cash On Hand – $231,000 v. $1,174,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NC-08

17. Illinois-10 (D+4) – – –  R2B

Dan Seals v. Representative Mark Kirk

Total Raised —- $1,988,000 v. $3,763,000

Cash On Hand – $1,175,000 v. $2,856,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for IL-10

18. Michigan-09 (R+0) – – –  R2B

Gary Peters v. Representative Joe Knollenberg

Total Raised —- $1,301,000 v. $2,547,000

Cash On Hand – $1,082,000 v. $1,891,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for MI-09

19. Ohio-01 (R+1) – – –  R2B

Steve Dreihaus v. Representative Steve Chabot

Total Raised —- $889,000 v. $1,356,000

Cash On Hand – $631,000 v. $1,311,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for OH-01

20. Nevada-03 (D+1) – – –  R2B

Dina Titus v. Representative Jon Porter

Total Raised —- $575,000 v. $2,038,000

Cash On Hand – $553,000 v. $1,277,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NV-03

21. Florida-24 (R+3) – – –  R2B

Suzanne Kosmas v. Representative Tom Feeney

Total Raised —- $1,142,000 v. $1,388,000

Cash On Hand — $936,000 v. $795,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for FL-24

22. Colorado-04 (R+9) – – –  R2B

Betsy Markey v. Representative Marilyn Musgrave

Total Raised —- $958,000 v. $1,661,000

Cash On Hand – $580,000 v. $1,155,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for CO-04

23. Florida-21 (R+6) – – –  R2B

Raul Martinez v. Representative Lincoln Diaz Balart

Total Raised —- $1,219,000 v. $1,485,000

Cash On Hand – $1,079,000 v. $1,456,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for FL-21

24. Connecticut-04 (D+5) – – –  R2B

Jim Himes v. Representative Chris Shays

Total Raised —- $2,055,000 v. $2,329,000

Cash On Hand – $1,444,000 v. $1,698,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for CT-04

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25. New Mexico-02*** (R+6) – – –  R2B

Harry Teague v. Ed Tinsley  

Total Raised —- $1,529,000 v. $1,091,000

Cash On Hand —– $75,000 v. $111,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for NM-02

26. Louisiana-04*** (R+7) – – –  R2B

Paul Carmouche v. Chris Gorman

Total Raised —- $481,000 v. $706,000

Cash On Hand – $388,000 v. $352,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for LA-04

27. Missouri-09*** (R+7)

Judy Baker v. Bob Onder

Total Raised —- $401,000 v. $495,000

Cash On Hand – $140,000 v. $349,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MO-09

28. Florida-25 (R+4) – – –  R2B

Joe Garcia v. Representative Mario Diaz-Balart

Total Raised —- $824,000 v. $1,135,000

Cash On Hand – $700,000 v. $752,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-25

29. Idaho-01 (R+19) – – –  R2B

Walt Minnick v. Representative Bill Sali

Total Raised —- $997,000 v. $656,000

Cash On Hand – $444,000 v. $250,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for ID-01

30. Alaska-AL (R+14) – – –  R2B

Ethan Berkowitz v. Sean Parnell

Total Raised —- $627,000 v. $291,000  

Cash On Hand – $398,000 v. $207,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”  

2006 Results for AK-AL

31. Missouri-06 (R+5) – – –  R2B

Kay Barnes v. Representative Sam Graves

Total Raised — $1,852,000 v. $1,902,000

Cash On Hand — $962,000 v. $936,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for MO-06

32. Wyoming-AL*** (R+19) – – –  R2B

Gary Trauner v. Mark Gordon

Total Raised —- $955,000 v. $723,000

Cash On Hand – $701,000 v. $69,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for WY-AL

33. Florida-13 (R+4) – – –  R2B

Christine Jennings v. Representative Vernon Buchanan

Total Raised — $1,499,000 v. $2,953,000

Cash On Hand — $578,000 v. $1,572,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-13

34. Ohio-02 (R+13) – – – ER

Victoria Wulsin v. Representative Jean Schmidt

Total Raised — $1,090,000 v. $858,000

Cash On Hand — $378,000 v. $393,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for OH-02

35. Alabama-02*** (R+13) – – –  R2B

Bobby Bright v. Jay Love

Total Raised —- $399,000 v. $1,051,000

Cash On Hand – $280,000 v. $90,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for AL-02

36. California-04*** (R+11) – – –  R2B

Charlie Brown v. Thomas McClintock

Total Raised — $1,314,000 v. $1,596,000

Cash On Hand — $675,000 v. $117,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for CA-04

37. Virginia-02 (R+6) – – –  R2B

Glenn Nye v. Representative Thelma Drake

Total Raised —- $515,000 v. $1,334,000

Cash On Hand – $409,000 v. $682,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for VA-02  

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38. Texas-07 (R+16) – – – ER

Michael Skelly v. Representative John Culberson

Total Raised —- $1,465,000 v. $983,000

Cash On Hand – $1,050,000 v. $550,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for TX-07  

39. Kentucky-02*** (R+13) – – – ER

David Boswell v. Brett Guthrie

Total Raised — $219,000 v. $764,000

Cash On Hand — $45,000 v. $661,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for KY-03

40. Texas-10 (R+13)Larry Doherty v. Representative Mike McCaul

Total Raised —- $701,000 v. $975,000

Cash On Hand – $259,000 v. $489,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for TX-10

41. Nevada-02 (R+8) – – – ER

Jill Derby v. Representative Dean Heller

Total Raised —- $437,000 v. $1,169,000

Cash On Hand – $353,000 v. $984,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NV-02

42. Florida-08 (R+3)

Charlie Stuart v. Representative Richard Keller

Total Raised —- $613,000 v. $986,000

Cash On Hand – $414,000 v. $935,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for FL-08

43. Maryland-01*** (R+10) – – –  R2B

Frank Kratovil v. Andrew Harris

Total Raised —- $789,000 v. $1,905,000

Cash On Hand – $454,000 v. $609,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MD-01

44. Pennsylvania-03 (R+2) – – – ER

Kathleen Dahlkemper v. Representative Phil English

Total Raised —- $314,000 v. $1,579,000

Cash On Hand – $127,000 v. $786,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for PA-03

45. Arizona-03 (R+6) – – –  R2B

Bob Lord v. Representative John Shadegg

Total Raised — $1,065,000 v. $1,704,000

Cash On Hand — $706,000 v. $1,354,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for AZ-03

46. New Jersey-05 (R+4) – – – ER

Dennis Shulman v. Representative Scott Garrett

Total Raised —- $548,000 v. $983,000

Cash On Hand – $258,000 v. $649,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NJ-05

47. Virginia-05 (R+6) – – – ER

Tom Perriello v. Representative Virgil Goode

Total Raised —- $910,000 v. $818,000

Cash On Hand – $519,000 v. $834,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for VA-05

48. West Virginia-02 (R+5) – – –  R2B

Anne Barth v. Representative Shelly Capito Moore

Total Raised —- $629,000 v. $1,143,000

Cash On Hand – $353,000 v. $974,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Republican”

2006 Results for WV-02

49. California-50 (R+5) – – – ER

Nick Leibham v. Representative Brian Bilbray

Total Raised —- $560,000 v. $879,000

Cash On Hand – $266,000 v. $528,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for CA-50

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50. Pennsylvania-15 (D+2) – – – ER

Siobhan Bennett v. Representative Charlie Dent

Total Raised —- $537,000 v. $1,161,000

Cash On Hand – $353,000 v. $686,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for PA-15

51. Alabama-03 (R+4) – – – ER

Josh Segall v. Representative Mike Rogers

Total Raised — $521,000 v. $906,000

Cash On Hand – $410,000 v. $1,119,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for AL-03

52. Pennsylvania-06 (D+2) – – – ER

Bob Roggio v. Representative Jim Gerlach

Total Raised —- $324,000 v. $1,814,000

Cash On Hand – $259,000 v. $761,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for PA-06

53. Florida-18 (R+4) – – – ER

Annette Taddeo v. Representative Ros-Lehtinen

Total Raised —- $475,000 v. $1,124,000

Cash On Hand – $457,000 v. $1,893,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-18

54. Indiana-03 (R+16) – – – ER

Michael Montagano v. Representative Mike Souder

Total Raised —- $459,000 v. $556,000

Cash On Hand – $351,000 v. $323,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for IN-03

55. California-46 (R+6)

Debbie Cook v. Representative Dana Rohrbacher

Total Raised — $157,000 v. $319,000

Cash On Hand — $97,000 v. $387,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for CA-46

56.Virginia-10 (R+5) – – – ER

Judy Feder v. Representative Frank Wolf

Total Raised — $1,207,000 v. $1,403,000

Cash On Hand — $812,000 v. $849,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for VA-10

57. Indiana-04 (R+17)

Nels Ackerson v. Representative Steve Buyer

Total Raised — $395,000 v. $479,000

Cash On Hand – $177,000 v. $623,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for IN-04

58. Illinois-18*** (R+5) – – – ER

Colleen Callahan v. Aaron Schock

Total Raised —- $227,000 v. $1,498,000

Cash On Hand – $155,000 v. $299,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for IL-18

59. California-26 (R+4)

Russ Warner v. Representative David Dreier

Total Raised —- $651,000 v. $918,000

Cash On Hand – $125,000 v. $1,903,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for CA-26

60. Ohio-14 (R+2)

William O’Neill v. Representative Steven LaTourette

Total Raised — $345,000 v. $1,166,000

Cash On Hand — $46,000 v. $870,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for OH-14

61. Illinois-06 (R+3) – – – ER

Jill Morgenthaler v. Peter Roskam

Total Raised —- $495,000 v. $1,770,000

Cash On Hand – $230,000 v. $1,213,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for IL-06

62. Florida-09 (R+4) – – – ER

John Dicks v. Representative Gus Bilirakis

Total Raised —- $354,000 v. $1,049,000

Cash On Hand – $323,000 v. $642,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for FL-09

63. Louisiana-07 (R+7) – – – ER

Don Cravins Jr. v. Representative Charles Boustany

Total Raised —- $107,000 v. $1,014,000

Cash On Hand – $104,000 v. $669,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Safe Republican”

2006 Results for LA-07

64. Ohio-07*** (R+6)

Sharen Neuhardt v. Steve Austria

Total Raised —- $363,000 v. $818,000

Cash On Hand – $108,000 v. $361,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for OH-07

65. Minnesota-02 (R+3) – – – ER

Steve Sarvi v. Representative John Kline

Total Raised — $251,000 v. $1,075,000

Cash On Hand — $98,000 v. $647,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MN-02

66. North Carolina-10 (R+15) – – – ER

Dan Johnson v. Representative Patrick McHenry

Total Raised —- $341,000 v. $1,031,000

Cash On Hand – $218,000 v. $410,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NC-10

67. Minnesota-06 (R+5) – – – ER

El Tinklenberg v. Representative Michele Bachmann

Total Raised —- $531,000 v. $1,932,000

Cash On Hand – $225,000 v. $1,297,000

CQ Politics – “Republican Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for MN-06

68. Nebraska-02 (R+9)

James Esch v. Representative Lee Terry

Total Raised —- $246,000 v. $957,000

Cash On Hand – $140,000 v. $616,000

CQ Politics – “Safe Republican” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Republican”

2006 Results for NE-02







House Democrats

1. Texas-22 (R+15)

Representative Nick Lampson v. Pete Olson

Total Raised — $1,635,000 v. $1,068,000

Cash On Hand – $1,148,000 v. $261,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for TX-22  

2. Kansas-02 (R+7)

Representative Nancy Boyda v. Jim Ryun

Total Raised — $1,227,000 v. $1,649,000

Cash On Hand — $892,000 v. $223,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for KS-02  

3. Florida-16 (R+2)

Representative Tim Mahoney v. Hal Valeche

Total Raised — $2,497,000 v. $1,054,000

Cash On Hand – $1,172,000 v. $828,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for FL-16

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4. New Hampshire-01 (R+0)

Representative Carol Shea-Porter v. Jeb Bradley

Total Raised — $919,000 v. $714,000

Cash On Hand – $748,000 v. $475,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for NH-01  

5. Oregon-05*** (D+1)

Kurt Shrader v. Michael Erickson

Total Raised — $382,000 v. $1,963,000

Cash On Hand – $231,000 v. $400,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for OR-05  

6. Alabama-05*** (R+6)

Parker Griffith v. Wayne Parker

Total Raised — $572,000 v. $431,000

Cash On Hand – $351,000 v. $73,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for AL-05  

7. Georgia-08 (R+8)

Representative Jim Marshall v. Richard Goddard

Total Raised — $1,169,000 v. $767,000

Cash On Hand – $1,372,000 v. $488,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for GA-08  

8. Kentucky-03 (D+2)

Representative John Yarmuth v. Anne Northup

Total Raised — $1,456,000 v. $1,081,000

Cash On Hand – $1,001,000 v. $819,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for KY-03  

9. Pennsylvania-10 (R+8)

Representative Chris Carney v. Chris Hackett

Total Raised — $1,648,000 v. $2,010,000

Cash On Hand – $1,149,000 v. $174,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for PA-10  

10. Pennsylvania-04 (R+3)

Representative Jason Altmire v. Melissa Hart

Total Raised — $2,122,000 v. $823,000

Cash On Hand – $1,574,000 v. $624,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for PA-04  

11. Louisiana-06 (R+7)

Don Cazayoux v. Bill Cassidy

Total Raised — $1,833,000 v. $212,000

Cash On Hand — $271,000 v. $195,000

CQ Politics – “Toss Up” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for LA-06  

12. Mississippi-01 (R+10)

Travis Childers v. Greg Davis

Total Raised — $1,315,000 v. $1,345,000

Cash On Hand — $160,000 v. $53,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for MS-01  

13. Arizona-08 (R+1)

Representative Gabrielle Giffords v. Tim Bee

Total Raised — $2,499,000 v. $1,146,000

Cash On Hand – $2,077,000 v. $687,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for AZ-08  

14. New York-20 (R+3)

Representative Kirsten Gillibrand v. Alexander Treadwell

Total Raised — $3,602,000 v. $2,693,000

Cash On Hand – $2,802,000 v. $1,269,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-20    

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15. California-11 (R+3)

Representative Jerry McNerney v. Dean Andal

Total Raised — $2,130,000 v. $798,000

Cash On Hand – $1,375,000 v. $663,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Toss Up”

2006 Results for CA-11  

16. Pennsylvania-11 (D+5)

Representative Paul Kanjorski v. Lou Barletta

Total Raised — $1,513,000 v. $517,000

Cash On Hand – $2,174,000 v. $321,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for PA-11  

17. Arizona-05 (R+4)

Representative Harry Mitchell v. David Schweikert

Total Raised — $1,717,000 v. $681,000

Cash On Hand – $1,372,000 v. $514,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for AZ-05  

18. Connecticut-05 (D+4)

Representative Chris Murphy v. David Cappiello

Total Raised — $2,272,000 v. $763,000

Cash On Hand – $1,901,000 v. $710,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for CT-05  

19. Wisconsin-08 (R+4)

Representative Steve Kagen v. John Gard

Total Raised — $1,410,000 v. $812,000

Cash On Hand — $926,000 v. $649,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for WI-08

20. Texas-23 (R+4)

Representative Ciro Rodriguez v. Lyle Larson

Total Raised — $2,164,000 v. $534,000

Cash On Hand – $1,193,000 v. $279,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for TX-23  

21. Illinois-14 (R+5)

Representative Bill Foster v. Jim Oberweis

Total Raised — $3,459,000 v. $4,660,000

Cash On Hand — $442,000 v. $547,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for IL-14

22. Indiana-09 (R+7)

Representative Baron Hill v. Mike Sodrel

Total Raised — $1,734,000 v. $664,000

Cash On Hand – $1,160,000 v. $379,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Lean Democrat”

2006 Results for IN-09

23. Minnesota-01 (R+1)

Representative Tim Walz v. Brian Davis

Total Raised — $1,941,000 v. $490,000

Cash On Hand – $1,210,000 v. $377,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for MN-01

24. New York-19 (R+1)

Representative John Hall v. Kieran Lalor

Total Raised — $1,821,000 v. $226,000

Cash On Hand – $1,267,000 v. $150,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for NY-19

25. Ohio-18 (R+6)

Representative Zach Space v. Fred Dailey

Total Raised — $1,809,000 v. $272,000

Cash On Hand – $1,141,000 v. $12,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for OH-18

26. Georgia-12 (D+2)

Representative John Barrow v. John Stone

Total Raised — $1,725,000 v. $134,000

Cash On Hand – $1,109,000 v. $8,000

CQ Politics – “Lean Democrat” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for GA-12

27. Indiana-08 (R+9)

Representative Brad Ellsworth v. Greg Goode

Total Raised — $1,246,000 v. $144,000

Cash On Hand — $779,000 v. $9,000

CQ Politics – “Democrat Favored” / Cook Political Report – “Likely Democrat”

2006 Results for IN-08

Total # of Red to Blue Candidates: 38

Total # of Emerging Races Candidates: 21

Current Breakdown: 236D-199R

Prediction: 25-35 Democratic pickups in the US House

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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