Markos has gotten his hands on the so-called GOP “Death List”. All it really is is a list of race ratings, but the “Washington Whispers” blog hyped it well by highlighting the most pessimistic Republican assessments.
As it happens, the five-tier heirarchy used in this list maps perfectly on to the same rating system we use here at SSP. This is what it would look like if you took the GOP chart (available in full below the fold) and whipped it up SSP-style:
| Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL (Young) AZ-01 (Open) AZ-08 (Giffords) CA-11 (McNerney) FL-24 (Feeney) IL-11 (Open) IL-14 (Foster) IN-09 (Hill) KY-03 (Yarmuth) MI-07 (Walberg) NJ-03 (Open) NJ-07 (Open) NY-13 (Open) NY-25 (Open) NY-29 (Kuhl) PA-04 (Altmire) VA-11 (Open) |
AZ-05 (Mitchell) CA-04 (Open) CO-04 (Musgrave) GA-08 (Marshall) KS-02 (Boyda) LA-06 (Cazayoux) MD-01 (Open) MI-09 (Knollenberg) MS-01 (Childers) NC-08 (Hayes) NM-01 (Open) OH-16 (Open) OR-05 (Open) PA-11 (Kanjorski) WI-08 (Kagen) |
AL-02 (Open) AL-05 (Open) CT-04 (Shays) IL-10 (Kirk) LA-04 (Open) MN-03 (Open) MN-06 (Bachmann) MO-06 (Graves) MO-09 (Open) NH-01 (Shea-Porter) NM-02 (Open) NV-03 (Porter) NY-26 (Open) OH-01 (Chabot) OH-15 (Open) PA-03 (English) PA-10 (Carney) TX-22 (Lampson) WA-08 (Reichert) WY-AL (Open) |
AZ-03 (Shadegg) CA-50 (Bilbray) FL-08 (Keller) FL-13 (Buchanan) FL-21 (Diaz-Balart, L.) FL-25 (Diaz-Balart, M.) ID-01 (Sali) IL-06 (Roskam) KY-02 (Open) NE-02 (Terry) NJ-05 (Garrett) NV-02 (Heller) OH-02 (Schmidt) PA-06 (Gerlach) VA-02 (Drake) VA-05 (Goode) |
FL-15 (Open) FL-16 (Mahoney) IL-18 (Open) OH-07 (Open) PA-18 (Murphy) TX-07 (Culberson) VA-10 (Wolf) |
|
6 D, 11 R
|
8 D, 7 R
|
4 D, 16 R
|
16 R
|
1 D, 6 R
|
I don’t have to run down all my disagreements with the list – that’s what this is for. But I will make one observation: The GOP is light – they are missing a lot of races. SSP has over 100 races on our House list – this one has just 75. Now, most of our additional races are fairly marginal, but by no means all of them. And in an election like this, you ignore races at your peril.
I’m glad to see the GOP acting so carelessly.
P.S. There’s also a Senate chart, which you can check out on the last page of the document.