Author: Nico

In light of the fact that Arizona has no less than five(!) competitive congressional races next week, I wanted to put together county-level vote baselines for each of the competitive races. Of course, three of those five congressional districts (AZ-03, AZ-05 and AZ-08) are mostly or entirely within one county so baselines don’t do much good there. I’ll go ahead and provide baselines for AZ-01, AZ-07 and throw in AZ-08. For AZ-03, AZ-05, and again AZ-08, I will be providing information about the State Legislative districts within their boundaries and give you some idea of what to look for based on which LDs report first.

First, though, a few general notes about election night. Polls close at 7pm local time (that’s 10pm on the East Coast and 7pm in California because most of Arizona doesn’t observe Daylight Savings Time). Nothing will be reported, however, until 8pm, when counties will release most or all of the Early Voters and Vote-by-Mail results. Precinct level results will then start to come in.

AZ-01 (Ann Kirkpatrick, D-Flagstaff)

Alright, first up is Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, where Flagstaff Democratic Ann Kirkpatrick is in the fight of her life against Flagstaff Republican Paul Gosar. Now, I decided to use 2008-based baselines instead of 2006-based ones. This might strike some people as odd, because of the widely-parroted idea that turnout on the Navajo Nation surges during off-year elections. Unfortunately for Kirkpatrick, I’ve crunched a lot of numbers regarding voting on the Navajo Nation over the last ten years and that simply is an exaggeration. In the 2008 election, the Navajo Nation made up 12.5% of the AZ-01 electorate. In the 2006 election, that percentage was only a little bit higher, 13.5%.  However, other differences between the 2006 and 2008 electorate have a bigger influence on the baselines, most notably the fact that it doesn’t capture continuing growth in Pinal County and that it overestimates likely Democratic performance in Yavapai County (where ’06 Dem nominee Ellen Simon lived) while underestimating Democratic performance in the White Mountains (where Ann Kirkpatrick was born and raised-and where Simon got stomped.) If you want to figure that turnout in Apache, Coconino and Yavapai Counties will be slightly higher and slightly bluer (and thus Gosar will need to do slightly better in places like Yavapai County than the baseline suggests) go ahead. If you’re holding out for a Navajo Nation turnout miracle, however, prepare to be disappointed.

Anyway, here’s the baseline.

Counties	Kirkpatrick ’08	Hay	Other	Percent of CD	Kirkpatrick ’10	Gosar	Other
Yavapai	47	47	6	34	39	57	4
Coconino	65	29	5	19	57	39	3
Pinal	59	37	5	13	51	47	3
Navajo	57	40	3	12	49	49	2
Apache	74	23	3	9	66	32	2
Gila	52	43	5	8	44	53	3
Graham	43	54	3	4	35	63	2
Greenlee	60	37	3	1	52	46	2
Total	56	39	5	100	48	49	3

I’ve already summed up most of the intricacies of the AZ-01, but I’d throw in that Pinal County will probably be the crucial swing area.

Also, if anyone is curious about the totalities of my findings on the influence of the Navajo Nation on AZ-01, I’ll try to get another diary up before an election. (But here’s the biggest shock: Paul Babbit didn’t get spanked in ’04 because the Navajo Nation didn’t turn out; they turned out at almost the same rate they did in 2002-they just voted for Renzi!).

AZ-03 (OPEN)

Next up is Arizona’s 3rd Congressional District, where Phoenix Democrat Jon Hulbred is hoping to pull off a major upset against Dan progeny and Phoenix Republican Ben Quayle. Now a Democrat winning an open seat in a R+9 district in this cycle does seem a bit like science fiction, but polls have indicated that the race might be quite close, and the southern half of the district has been trending Democratic. Add in Quayle’s “broken moral compass” and Hulbred’s ability to self-fund and, well, this district bears watching.

Now, how can we actually watch this district, as it’s entirely in Maricopa County? Well, while I obviously can’t provide any meaningful county baselines, I can give you an idea of what state legislative districts are in the district so you adjust your expectations to the race based on what LDs report first. I’m only providing information on Lds where the majority of the population lives in the CD, as those are the most relevant.

LD	Location	Reps (Sntr, Rep, Rep)	Approx. % of LD in CD	Obama (District-Wide)	McCain (District-Wide)
LD-06	Northwest PHX, Anthem	OPEN, Seele, Reeve	95	39	59
LD-07	Northeast PHX, Carefree	OPEN, OPEN, OPEN	85	40	59
LD-10	Sunnyslope, Metrocenter	Gray, Weiers, Yee	70	44	54
LD-11	Camelback Mtn, Paradise Valley	OPEN, OPEN, Meyer	90	46	53

Alright, so the question that you’ll have to figure out if you want an idea of Hulbred’s chances on Tuesday is what part of AZ-03 is reporting first. If LD-06 and LD-07 report more quickly than the southern end of the district and Hulbred is holding up pretty well, than he may well be on his way to a big upset. If LD-10 and LD-11 appear to be reporting first and Hulbred isn’t up big, than it likely isn’t happening.

For another way of looking at this, you can also consider the results of some of these LD races. If Democrats Justin Johnson and/or Rita Dickinson look like they’re on their ways to winning the State Senate races in LD-10 and LD-11, respectively, then that would be a good sign for Hulburd as both parties are extremely active in both Lds, particularly in the State Senate races.

AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell, D-Tempe)

My bet for the biggest nail-biter in Arizona on Tuesday in Arizona’s 5th Congressional District, where Tempe Democrat Harry Mitchell is in a difficult rematch against Fountain Hills Republican David Schweikert. While Congressman Mitchell performed better than expected against former Maricopa County Treasurer Schweikert in 2008, that was in part because of huge turnout from Arizona State University-something he probably can’t count on this time.

Again, county-level baselines would be pointless in this district because the whole district is in Maricopa County. However, paying close attention to which Legislative Districts turn out first can give you a pretty good idea of what’s going on Tuesday night.

LD	Location	Reps (Sntr, Rep, Rep)	Approx. % of LD in CD	Obama (District-Wide)	McCain (District-Wide)
LD-08	Scottsdale, Fountain Hills	OPEN, OPEN, Kavanagh	100	41	58
LD-17	Tempe, Downtown Scottsdale	OPEN, Ableser, OPEN	100	56	42
LD-20	Western Chandler, Ahwatukee	OPEN, OPEN, Waters	90	48	50

Since the district is pretty well concentrated into three Lds (with small fragments in several others), and one is heavily Republican, one is relatively Democratic, and one happens to be the most closely divided  in the state. Basically, if LD-08 comes in first and Mitchell’s still holding up ok, than he should be fine. He’ll probably need a big win (and big turnout) in LD-17 to pull this out though, so if LD-17 is leading the pack and Schweikert’s looking pretty strong, this race is probably done.

If you want to consider LD races as well, keep a close eye on LD-17. In the State Senate race, Democratic State Rep. David Schapira is in a close race with Republican Wendy Rogers. If Rogers looks like she’s going to win, it’s hard to imagine how Mitchell holds on. I’d love to tell you what to look for in the LD-20 State Senate race except, umm, for some reason we’re not fielding a candidate there. Only the Arizona Democratic Party wouldn’t put up a challenger in an open seat that gave Obama 48% of the vote against native son Johnny Mac. Ugh. Anyway, I guess people can watch State Rep. Rae Waters in LD-20, though I think she’ll be fine either way.

AZ-07 (Raúl Grijalva, D-Tucson)

Republicans are ecstatic at the prospect of unseating Tucson Democrat Raúl Grijalva with Tucson Republican Ruth McClung. But do they really have a realistic chance of knocking off the Co-Chair of the Progressive Caucus with someone running on a Tea Party platform? Both my heart and my gut say that it’s unlikely, but weird things happen in wave elections and the district is only D+6. It seems like some of the furor over immigration has cooled off, but it’s not like the boycott is entirely forgotten. That being said, I’m not sure that the boycott moves enough Hispanics and White liberals for McClung to get over the top.

Counties	Grijalva ’08	Sweeney	Other	Percent of CD	Grijalva ’10	McClung	Other
Pima	73	24	4	48	58	39	3
Yuma	50	45	5	21	35	62	3
Maricopa	57	39	4	16	42	55	3
Pinal	49	47	4	8	34	63	3
Santa Cruz	79	19	2	5	64	34	2
La Paz	42	54	4	3	27	70	3
Total	63	33	4	101	48	49	3

I think this model illustrates the difficulty McClung will face in getting over the top, but all shows the potential for her to get relatively close. I could easily see her doing about that well in Yuma, La Paz, Maricopa and Pinal Counties-Yuma and La Paz Counties generally lean Republican and probably won’t be in the mood to split their tickets the year, and the portions of Maricopa and Pinal Counties that are in AZ-07 have seen big influxes of exburban Whites along with some middle-class Hispanics, so it’s surprising that Grijalva has held up there as well as he has. The potentially fatal problem for McClung, however, is Pima and Santa Cruz Counties. McClung can barely even pronounce Nogales, she’s not going to get many cross-over voters there. Meanwhile, the portion of Pima County in AZ-07 contains primarily urban Hispanics, several different tribes of American Indians and lots of those mythical “Tucson White liberals” everyone yammers on about when discussing racial politics in Arizona. She might pluck off some voters from the latter group, but her conservative profile makes it difficult for her to make deep in-roads.

Alright, that might have been a little too much spin, but the point is that, on balance, the political geography is rather hazardous for McClung, and, unless it’s clear early in the night that key demographics aren’t showing up, Grijalva should be on his way to a close but comfortable victory.

AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords, D-Tucson)

We end this journey of competitive house races in Arizona with the place where I was born and raised, Arizona’s 8th Congressional District, where Tucson Democrat Gabrielle Giffords is locked in a tough race with Marana Republican Jesse Kelly. While Republicans expressed concerns about their chances of winning this district after Kelly won the primary and Giffords has run several of this cycles better political ads, neither party is leaving anything to chance, and this will almost surely be the closest race of Giffords’ congressional career. Also in Giffords’ favor is the fact that she’s built a decent GOTV operation-nothing too flashy but much better than what the Arizona Democratic Party puts forth, which is basically nothing (Do you guys realize that Dems probably would have won the Arizona State House in 2008 if we had the GOTV operation pretty much any other respectable Democratic party has? Imagine: no massive education cuts, no suspension of the corporate property tax, SB 1070 has to be compromised or it’s thrown out entirely… but I digress).

Here’s what we have for a baseline…

Counties	Giffords ’08	Bee	Other	Percent of CD	Giffords ’10	Bee	Other
Pima	56	42	2	82	50	48	2
Cochise	49	48	3	15	43	54	3
Pinal	45	54	1	2	39	60	1
Santa Cruz	57	41	3	1	51	47	3
Total	55	43	2	100	49	49	2

As you can see, it isn’t actually that useful, because the bulk of the district lives in Pima County. If Kelly doesn’t look like he’s going to win Cochise County, than forget it. If Giffords is struggling in Pima County, than she’s probably struggling district-wide, but I didn’t have to tell you that.

In this case, legislative districts might be more useful than just baselines alone, because so depends on what part of the district reports first.

LD	Location	Reps (Sntr, Rep, Rep)	Approx. % of LD in CD	Obama (District-Wide)	McCain (District-Wide)
LD-25	Nogales, Douglas, Rural South. AZ	Alvarez, Fleming, Stevens	50	47	52
LD-26	Northern Tucson Suburbs	Melvin, Williams, Wright	100	45	54
LD-28	Midtown Tucson	Aboud, Farley, OPEN	85	62	37
LD-29	Southside Tucson, Davis-Monthan AFB	Lopez, Patterson, Heinz	50	59	40
LD-30	Eastern Tucson Suburbs, Sierra Vista	Antenori, Gowan, Vogt	100	43	56

I should note that my disclaimer that Obama/McCain numbers come from the LD-at-large and not the fragment within the CD is particularly relevent, because the portions of LD-25 and LD-29 that are in AZ-08 are somewhat more Republican than the presidential numbers suggest. The part of LD-25 in AZ-08 is probably about as Republican as LD-30 and the part of LD-29 in AZ-08 is probably pretty close to 50/50. So, if Giffords is struggling but the only parts of the district in are LD-25 & LD-30, I wouldn’t hit the panic button just yet. But if she’s struggling, LD-28 is all in, and you’re hoping LD-29 is going to save her, it’s probably not happening. In the last two races, Giffords has done very well in LD-26, because its tendency is to elect moderates. If LD-26 is the first out that gate and it looks like it’s turning on her, than it’s going to be a long night.

If you want to peg Giffords’ chances to legislative districts, again, keep a close eye on LD-26. Despite first (barely) winning in a Democratic year, Republican State Sen. Al Melvin is probably in serious trouble in his rematch against Democrat Cheryl Cage; if it looks like she’s going to win then that’s probably a pretty good sign for Giffords. If Democrat Todd Camenisch is upsetting Republican State Sen. Frank Antenori in LD-30, then it’ll probably be a good night for Southern Arizona Dems and Giffords should be fine. Manny Alvarez will likely have a pretty close race in LD-25 against Republican Gail Griffin, but unless he’s losing badly results there are going to say more about turnout in AZ-07 than voters turning against Dems in AZ-08.  

I decided to take on Arizona with its unique redistricting rules. Contrary to many states, Arizona focuses less on incumbent protection and even competitiveness, and more on “communities of interest” (though doesn’t really provide a clear definition for what this means). Additionally, as evidence by the 2000 map which sought unsuccessfully to make Arizona a 5R-3D state in line with its partisan leanings, they will very likely address the fact that the current 5D-3R doesn’t look like Arizona either and draw definitely one and likely both of the new districts so that they elect Republicans. On the same token I’d expect them to address the fact that there’s sort of a problem when Obama won 45% of the vote here yet he has the potential to only have won 2 of the 10 districts, so thus I chose to create a 3rd Obama district. As they do kinda take into consideration competitiveness, at least as an afterthought, 5 of the 8 old districts are now closer to 50-50 than they were before. I opted not to create a 3rd Hispanic-majority district, as I really don’t think that a third one will be mandated by the Justice Department. In fact, as best as I can tell, AZ-07 wasn’t required in 2000, either (remember, despite popular opinion whenever someone redistricts Louisiana here, the Justice Department doesn’t actually require that the percent of districts that a state has that are minority-majority must be equal to the percent of it’s population that is Hispanic (otherwise Texas would look much, much better for us)). However, they will likely require that there is a working Hispanic majority in a second district, thus AZ-07 should see a bit of an uptick in its Hispanic population. That being said, it’s still a very legitimate possibility that the redistricting commission opts to create a 3rd Hispanic-majority district anyway, though there probably isn’t a strong a “community of interest” argument for one this time around (as the two largest Hispanic communities, South Phoenix & the border, are already covered and the next largest, the southern part of the West Valley, doesn’t really have a large enough Hispanic community just yet.

I calculated political data based off these maps for the 2004 and 2008 presidential races to provide more depth to this map, as I’ve noticed that a lot of the recent maps rely on at best educated guesses for what the actual political realities are on the ground. While I’m confident enough in my data to post it, it likely isn’t perfect. Arizona doesn’t have townships or anything like that, so sometimes it’s difficult to figure out exactly where precincts belong. Additionally, I’d like to thank Dave and his awesome Redistrict Application, which made this possible.

Finally, I’m perfectly aware that the nature of the rules in Arizona means that someone could come in with the same basic goals that I have and come out with a very different map, so I’d love to here what other people have to think.

AZ-01 (Blue): Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, R+3.4

-Flagstaff, Douglas, Payson

54% White, 23% American Indian, 19% Hispanic

More rural than ever (Flagstaff is the only town larger than 20K), the new AZ-01 drops the urban-suburban regions of Pinal County while maintaining its decidedly rural and Hispanic eastern edge, and pulls out of most of the rapidly urbanizing Prescott area, hanging on to only the more rural edges like Chino. Meanwhile, it picks up the ranching region of Cochise County (which like the rest of the Anglo population of eastern Arizona, has become quite conservative but remains somewhat Dem-friendly at the local level) along with some more liberal border towns; I’d argue that Cochise County outside SV makes a lot more sense in Kirkpatrick’s district than Giffords’ from the communities of interest POV.

The ditching of Evangelical-heavy Prescott does help to make this district somewhat more Democratic, but it also means that it’s trending Republican faster than ever as that corridor of Mormons, ranchers, and miners in Eastern AZ starting South of the Navajo Nation and ending somewhere immediately north of Douglas and Bisbee grow more Republican by the minute (and it won’t have the potentially Dem-trending suburbs of Pinal County to counteract that anymore). This may be a genuine Gore-Bush-McCain district, though, and the possibility is quite good that Obama wins it in 2012 if he carries AZ.

John McCain won 52% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Apache	15390	8551	295	24236		15658	8384	156	24198
Cochise (part)	10534	13661	420	24615		10272	12096	285	22653
Coconino (part)	31248	22126	723	54097		29030	22465	383	51378
Gila	7884	14095	337	22316		8314	12343	186	20843
Graham	3487	8376	144	12007		3185	7467	68	10720
Greenlee	1165	1712	36	2913		1146	1899	22	3067
Maricopa (part)	1091	809	40	1940		1138	696	14	1848
Navajo (part)	14879	19592	455	34926		14035	17116	247	31398
Pinal (part)	4328	4512	116	8956		4420	3909	59	8388
Yavapai (part)	17885	27393	705	45983		16091	23516	329	39936
Total	107891	120827	3271	231989		103289	109891	1749	214929

AZ-02 (Red): Rep. Trent Franks, R+7.5

-Glendale, western Phoenix, Avondale

55% White, 33% Hispanic, 5% Black

While I ended up opting against drawing an Arizona map with a third Hispanic majority district (though there’s a good argument for one and that may be my next project), I did have to address the fact that there’s a relatively large and rapidly growing Hispanic population in Phoenix’s suburb’s southern West Valley that is currently mostly in 7th. I decided that a Phoenix district had to take them on to maximize their voice, and the Glendale-based 2nd district was the obvious choice. Additionally, as I ceded Peoria & the exburbs to the new 9th, this district had to go deeper into western Phoenix, now going clear east to I-17 though northern and much of central Phoenix and has to take in a few precincts in south western Phoenix for population purposes.

Trent Franks would find himself in a bit of pickle. On one hand this district is clearly Dem-trending (I could see it voting Democratic on the presidential level as early as 2012) and the growth of the Hispanic population will eventually drown him. Meanwhile, there’s an invitingly Republican district directly to the West and surely most of the conservative establishment, much of which was represented by Franks for the past 6 years anyway, will bow to this noted douchebag far-right luminary. That being said, Franks has a coveted seat on the Armed Services committee–a seat he may lose if he’s chooses not to represent Luke Air Force Base, which is still in the 2nd along with most of its employee. If Franks were to decide he only supports the troops when they’re in safe districts and bails, Republicans would still have a pretty good chance of holding this district with State Sen. Linda Gray or Glendale mayor Elaine Scruggs being potentially leading candidates, though we’d have a legitimate shot with someone like Avondale mayor Marie Lopez Rogers. Otherwise, look for Franks to be in the race of his life sometime around 2014.

John McCain won 54% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Maricopa (part)	86328	103617	3250	193195		69754	94108	1050	164912

AZ-03 (Purple): Rep. John Shadegg, R+12.0

-Northern Phoenix, northern Scottsdale, New River

83% White, 11% Hispanic

Based around the tract homes and gated communities of McMansions that have popped up in northern Maricopa County here in the last 20 years, this is probably the wealthiest district in Arizona. It sheds much of the more culturely liberal neighborhoods in central Phoenix, now beginning north of Camelback and the North Mountains which gives it a decidedly suburban character despite the fact that the majority of its inhabitants live in the Phoenix city limits. Most people here commute to 4th and the 5th, though there is a substantial central business district in the 3rd’s new portion of Scottsdale–which I decided to include because there’s a division between the more middle-class southern and downtown Scottsdale and the disgustingly wealthy northern Scottsdale. In any event, Shadegg will fit here like a glove, as this district is safely Republican.

John McCain won 59% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Maricopa (part)	115630	174838	4313	294781		95226	151454	1231	247911

AZ-04 (Grey): Rep. Ed Pastor, D+15.4

-Southern Phoenix, Guadalupe

71% Hispanic, 17% White, 8% Black

The southern Phoenix based 4th district doesn’t change that much, just shrinking because of population growth and becoming even more Hispanic. There are some upper class subdivisions in the Laveen area, but by in large this is working-class urban district that will continue to be the most Democratic district in Arizona.

Barack Obama won 68% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Maricopa (part)	62390	27826	1398	91614		43697	24414	482	68593

AZ-05 (Yellow): Rep. Harry Mitchell, D+2.6

-Central Phoenix, Tempe, southern Scottsdale

58% White, 29% Hispanic

As I mentioned above, the fact that there is a big potential for this map to only have two districts out of ten that Obama won when he pulled off a respectable 45% of the vote is kind of a problem. If it took some kind of massive gerrymander to ameliorate that situation then it would be a problem, but I’d argue that this district is just as logical if not more so than the current AZ-05.

Essentially, I tried to create a “creative class” district that is well educated but more culturally liberal than the 3rd on the other side of the mountains. Starting in Tempe (home to ASU and several software companies) it moves up through several middle-class southern Scottsdale neighborhoods and then artsy downtown Scottsdale, then turns West into Phoenix to take in several historic middle-class neighborhoods such as Arcadia and Encanto before turning north again to end at the traditionally working-class but gentrifying Sunnyslope. One thing that occurred to me just as I was writing this up is that ASU’s Downtown Campus is a just a couple miles the south of Encanto area and ASU west is just a couple miles to the northwest of Sunnyslope, so if I were to redraw this map, adding those two campuses into this district would be one of my first priorities.

This would probably be pretty safe for Democrats (though Republicans do definitely have a base here) but the bigger threat to Harry Mitchell might be a primary challenge out of Phoenix and from the left. State Rep. (and de facto future State Sen.) Kyrsten Sinema, who represents much of the Phoenix portion of this district already and is seen as a major rising star in the liberal wing of the state party would probably take a look (incidentally, she’d be the first openly bisexual member of congress).

Barack Obama won 54% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Maricopa (part)	96261	78728	3469	178458		88501	79006	1231	1687382

AZ-06 (Teal): Rep. Jeff Flake, R+13.5

-Mesa, Apache Junction, northern Gilbert

71% White, 22% Hispanic

The current version of this district has swelled to become the largest in Arizona, so it needed to shed quite a bit of territory. It now takes in the entirety of Mesa (picking up the westside that was shed by the 5th) but loses its portion of Chandler, almost of Gilbert, and all of Queen Creek & the San Tan Valley. Mesa, which has sizable Mormon and retired communities, is starting to become more diverse with a growing Hispanic minority, and may eventually be at the center of a swing district. In the short-term, however, it should continue to be one of the Republican strongholds in the interior West.

John McCain won 60% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Maricopa (part)	72159	114697	3793	190649		64189	114338	1038	179565
Pinal (part)	8099	12268	257	20624		7633	11114	92	18839
Total	80258	126965	4050	211273		71822	125452	1130	198404

AZ-07 (Cyan): Rep. Raul Grijalva, D+8.9

-Western Tucson, most of Yuma, Nogales

57% Hispanic, 33% White

While from the best information I can gather, this district was not actually mandated by the Justice Department, thus the fact that it was only 50.6% Hispanic in 2000 and was basically reliant on White liberals in Tucson to ensure the election of a Hispanic. However, with Arizona pushing 30% Hispanic, only one district where Hispanics are decidedly in the drivers seat isn’t going to do it, thus making the 7th a little more Hispanic was a major priority. It pulls out of Maricopa County for population reasons (except for that small part on the Tohono O’odahm Rez) and Pinal County because, despite what DRA says, that region has swelled somewhere north 40K and is decidedly suburban, making the prospect that it is still majority Hispanic highly unlikely. Taking suburban Yuma out of the district goes a long way, and allows this district to become more Hispanic while only making minor alterations to the Tucson area. It should continue to be safely Democratic, especially if Republicans keep nominating that White supremacist.

Barack Obama won 59% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Maricopa (part)	17	12	0	29		40	4	0	44
Pima (part)	73583	42308	1505	117396		70118	38064	721	108903
Pinal (part)	115	34	0	149		174	34	0	208
Santa Cruz (part)	7259	3222	65	10546		5637	3397	50	9084
Yuma (part)	16066	19428	334	35828		13762	18259	173	32194
Total	97040	65004	1904	163948		89731	59758	944	150433

AZ-08 (Pink): Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, R+4.3

-Eastern Tucson, Casas Adobes, Catalina Foothills

74% White, 17% Hispanic

Certainly the district that changes the least as far as presidential performance, though I did try to make it more urban-suburban based and more military-centric by dropping rural Cochise County to the 1st. This should be another district that Obama wins in 2012 if he manages to carry the state.

John McCain won 52% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Cochise (part)	8409	15365	397	24171		7242	14460	128	21830
Pima (part)	132618	141801	3108	277527		122890	132694	1387	256971
Pinal (part)	2660	3953	40	6653		2014	3221	16	5251
Santa Cruz (part)	1424	1296	36	2756		1272	1271	30	2573
Total	145111	162415	3581	311107		133418	151646	1561	286625

AZ-09 (Green): NEW, R+14.3

-Peoria, Surprise, Prescott

77% White, 16% Hispanic

The fact that the Republican performance in several districts decreased should balance out the fact that this district will now be the most Republican in Arizona. If AZ-01 is the rural district, this is the medium-sized town district, encompassing most of the Prescott-Prescott Valley area, Bullhead City, Kingman, Lake Havasu City, and suburban Yuma. However, a little more than half of its population lives in the West Valley of Phoenix, as evidenced by the fact that rapidly growing Peoria and Suprise are the two largest cities. The Sun City area rounds out this heavily conservative district’s tilt and contributes to a large retired population along with Mohave County.

This district is pretty much impregnable for us. As I mentioned, Trent Franks would probably seriously consider running out here. If not, potential new representatives include current SOS and former State Senate President Ken Bennett, current State Senate President Bob Burns (though he’d be 74 on election day 2012, so that might not be realistic), State Sens. Steve Pierce and Jack Harper, though it would probably a five-ring frakus no matter what happens.

John McCain won 62% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Coconino (part)	185	60	2	247		213	61	2	276
La Paz	1929	3509	114	5552		1849	3159	48	5055
Maricopa (part)	67007	109897	2865	179769		47540	77762	525	125827
Mohave	22092	44333	1180	67605		20503	36794	510	57807
Navajo (part)	704	169	5	878		780	161	4	945
Yavapai (part)	19011	33789	756	53556		17036	29952	283	47271
Yuma (part)	2493	5149	120	7762		2270	3925	34	6229
Total	113421	196906	5042	315369		90191	151813	1406	243410

AZ-10 (Indigo): NEW, R+10.1

-Chandler, most of Gilbert, Ahwatukee Foothills

62% White, 25% Hispanic

The second new district pairs the rapid growth in southeastern Maricopa County with the rapid growth in western Pinal County to create a district that had barely more than 100K residents 25 years ago. Their remains some agriculture (mainly in Pinal County) and some Native Americans (the awkward reentry of the district into Maricopa County west of the 4th district is so that it can take in the rest of the Gila River Indian Reservation; Indian Reservations cannot and will not be broken up, btw, so please don’t suggest that in your comments), but it’s identity is first and foremost suburban. The sizable Hispanic community and swing areas like Ahwatukee could help make this district competitive, but any Democratic candidate will have to struggle to not be absolutely demolished in Gilbert and the San Tan Valley.

Politically, it leans pretty strongly Republican and was drawn to elect one, but there is some potential that it could end up in a Democrat’s hands. Potential Republican candidates include State Senate President pro tempore Thayer Verschoor and State House Majority Leader John McCormish. Democratic State Senate Assistant Minority Leader Rebecca Rios, who represents the Pinal County portion of the district and will be term limited in 2012 anyway, may be able to make this a horse race.

John McCain won 57% of the vote here in 2008.

Counties	Obama	McCain	Others	Total		Kerry	Bush	Others	Total
Maricopa (part)	93790	126879	3301	223970		71363	108729	885	180976
Pinal (part)	29052	38652	795	68499		13011	18728	166	31905
Total	122842	165531	4096	292469		84374	127456	1051	212881

This suddenly makes Phil Bredesen not sound so bad

Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius was very near the top of President Barack Obama’s list of candidates to head the Health and Human Services Department, a senior administration official said Saturday.

The source, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss private administration deliberations, said no decision was imminent. But the official added the former Kansas insurance commissioner was rising as Obama considers prospective candidates.

Now, Sebelius would certainly be qualified for the job, but this raises two important questions:

1. I thought the whole point of picking Daschle was to get someone who knew their way around the halls of congress. Unless Obama plans to enact his healthcare legislation by executive fiat a la Blago (and look at how well that turned out for him), it’s going to be essential that things with those blowhards in congress go as smoothly as possible.

2. Uh, hello, whose going to run for Sam Brownback’s senate seat? She’s probably not seriously interested in being a Senator if she takes this job, but it’s not as if she wouldn’t be able to be convinced as long as she’s not just starting a new job.

This is gonna be short because I have to get to class (and I’m in Beijing, PRC, so class starts at 5pm PDT).

Cook made the follow changes; 6 are pro-Dem and 9 are pro-Rep.  Mostly, the changes seem to be clean-up work on races for which time is running out.

AL-03 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

CA-46 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

CA-50 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

FL-18 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

ID-01 Likely Rep->Lean Rep

IL-18 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

MD-01 Likely Rep->Lean Rep

NE-02 Likely Rep->Lean Rep

NV-02 Likely Rep->Lean Rep

NY-20 Lean Dem->Likely Dem

OR-05 Lean Dem->Likely Dem

PA-18 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

TN-04 Solid Dem->Likely Dem

VA-10 Likely Rep->Solid Rep

WV-02 Lean Rep->Likely Rep

My pick for the biggest surprise move is probably Tennessee’s 4th.  I mean, seriously?  I don’t know much about this race, but it seems kinda late for that race to just now be getting competitive if he thinks the challenger can pull and upset, especially in such a pro-Dem year.

Your thoughts?  Also, can someone please tell me what the hell Cook thinks is going on TN?

Update 9:50 PM PDT,

I did some research, and TN-04’s challenger Monty Lankford seems like quite the joke.  He’s lagging significantly in COH ($99872 to Davis’ $413849) and apparently lives in the 7th district.  Either Davis’ vote to reelect internals are absolutely awful and Cook has gotten a hold of them, or Cook thinks that Davis’ declarations that he’s likely to run for governor in 2010 could hurt him.  Either of those seem possible, but I’m still not sure how Lankford manages to hit 50%.

What are the odds that Rothenberg writes another  column slamming Cook for this quixotic choice?