Tag: Kathleen Sebelius

• CT-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons needs to look like one of those allegedly-not-quite-extinct moderate New England Republicans in order to get elected in Connecticut, but he’s not doing himself any favors by appearing with Newt Gingrich at the annual Prescott Bush Awards Dinner. With a large Puerto Rican population in Connecticut, Simmons probably doesn’t want to be anywhere near Sonia Sotomayor’s loudest and most toxic critic. Another problem for Simmons: businessman Tom Foley, the former ambassador to Ireland, made his official entry into the GOP primary field today. Foley, unlike Simmons, has deep pockets he can self-fund with.

• MN-Sen: Sources close to Norm Coleman are suggesting he won’t appeal at the federal level if he loses his case with the Minnesota Supreme Court. Republicans still publicly say they’ll try to stop any Dem efforts to seat Al Franken until Coleman has conceded or exhausted his appeals. John Cornyn has sent some mixed signals, though, saying it’s “entirely” Coleman’s decision whether to keep fighting and that he’s “amazed that Sen. Coleman’s been willing to persevere as long as he has.”

• NV-Sen: Wondering why the GOP is having a hard time attracting a challenger to supposedly-vulnerable Harry Reid? Maybe it’s because of his deep levels of support among much of the state’s Republican establishment. The Reid camp released a list of 60 GOP endorsers, including, most prominently, soon-to-be-ex-First Lady (and former NV-02 candidate) Dawn Gibbons, Reno mayor Bob Cashell, and, in a move guaranteed to nail down the key 18-29 demographic, Wayne Newton.

• NH-Sen: Could it be that the NRSC could actually be stuck running Ovide Lamontagne against Rep. Paul Hodes? Just the very fact that the NRSC is talking to Lamontagne (a businessman whose one claim to fame is losing the 1996 governor’s race to Jeanne Shaheen) with an apparently straight face should be a red flag that their top-tier possibilities (ex-Sen. John Sununu, ex-Rep. Charlie Bass) aren’t looking likely.

• NY-Sen-B: Joe Biden reportedly had a sit-down earlier this week with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who may or may not be running in the Senate primary against Kirsten Gillibrand. Presumably the meeting would contain some of the same content as Barack Obama’s now-famous phone call to Rep. Steve Israel.

• OH-Sen: If a candidate falls in the woods with no one around, does he make a sound? State Rep. Tyrone Yates has been exploring the Senate race for several months, and apparently found nothing that would help him overcome Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and SoS Jennifer Brunner, as he bowed out of the race.

• NJ-Gov: Rasmussen has the first post-primary poll of the New Jersey governor’s race. Chris Christie may have gotten a bit of a brief unity bounce in the wake of his primary victory, as he’s up to a 51-38 edge over Jon Corzine now, as opposed to 47-38 last month. There’s one spot of ‘good’ news, as it were, for Corzine: his approval rating is back up to 42%.

• AZ-08: Construction company executive and ex-Marine Jesse Kelly seems to be the establishment GOP’s choice to go against Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in 2010. He announced endorsements from three House members: Trent Franks, Duncan Hunter, and Frank Wolf. (Not quite clear how endorsements from Hunter and Wolf help him in Arizona, though.)

• KS-01: State Senator Jim Barnett got into the race for the seat being vacated by Rep. Jerry Moran, who’s running for Senate. Barnett may quickly become front-runner, based on his name recognition from being the 2006 GOP gubernatorial candidate (where he lost the state as a whole to Kathleen Sebelius, but won the dark-red 1st). He’s up against a more conservative state Senator Tim Huelskamp, and Sam Brownback’s former chief of staff, Rob Wasinger. The primary is the whole shooting match in this R+23 district.

• KY-01: After the purchase of “whitfieldforsenate.com” got people’s attention yesterday, Rep. Ed Whitfield had to tamp that down, confirming that he’s running for re-election in his R+15 House seat.

• MN-06: Even if this goes nowhere, it’s great to have a GOPer doing our framing for us… attorney Chris Johnston is publicly mulling a primary challenge to (his words, on his website) “‘anti-American’ hurling, malaprop-spouting, ‘they took me out of context'” Rep. Michele Bachmann. He confirms that he and Bachmann share “strong conservative beliefs;” he just thinks the 6th would prefer someone “who thinks before they speak.”

• NH-02: Attorney Ann McLane Kuster is launching an exploratory committee to run for the open seat left behind by Rep. Paul Hodes. St. Rep. John DeJoie is already in the primary field, and they may soon be joined by Katrina Swett.

• NY-03: Dems are scoping out potential candidates in Long Island’s NY-03 (which fell to R+4 in the wake of 2008), thinking that even if Rep. Peter King doesn’t vacate to run for Senate he’s still vulnerable. The biggest fish would be Nassau Co. Exec Tom Suozzi, who seems to have bigger fish to fry (reportedly AG if Andrew Cuomo vacates). The next-biggest fish would Nassau Co. DA Kathleen Rice. Smaller fish listed include Isobel Coleman of the Council of Foreign Relations, and minor league baseball team owner Frank Boulton.

• NH-Legislature: It took a rewrite of a couple sentences that Gov. John Lynch didn’t like, but after a few weeks of back-and-forth New Hampshire finally enacted gay marriage. Both chambers passed the amended bill yesterday (clearing the House 198-176) and Lynch signed it into law on the same day.

Mark Parkinson picked his chief of staff Troy Findley to be his Lt. Governor today. Findley promptly announced he won't be running in 2010, effectively preventing the Democrats from having a frontrunner for 2010. The Sebelius/Parkinson/Findley trifecta have essentially ensured that the state party will have no inroads come 2010. The previous thinking was that Parkinson's Lt. Governor pick would be the standard bearer for the future, but no more. Combined with the resignation of AG Paul Morrison, the most Kansas Democrats have are two vulnerable appointed statwide incumbents who will be fighting to win terms in their own right in 2010. This is not what Kansans had in mind with Sebelius' election in 2002 – she was supposed to usher in an era where Democrats could compete on the statewide level. Coupled with Boyda's loss last cycle, Kansas Dems are essentially starting back at square one. Thoughts? Anyone else disappointed with Sebelius' lack of impact on state politics? Who will represent the future of the Kansas Dems?

http://www.kansascity.com/115/story/1198377.html

Kathleen Sebelius is on her way to Washington.

President Barack Obama on Saturday asked Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius to be his nominee for Health and Human Services secretary, according to two White House officials. The officials told CNN that Obama is expected to make the announcement Monday afternoon.

This will give current Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson at least two years as Kansas governor (which may give him a leg up toward another term, if he wants, although he said he wouldn’t run for governor earlier). In terms of larger national implications, this takes Sebelius off the table for the open Kansas senate race in 2010, which she had a good shot to win according to Research 2000.

UPDATE (David): With this move, KS-Sen unfortunately comes off of our Races to Watch list.

This suddenly makes Phil Bredesen not sound so bad

Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius was very near the top of President Barack Obama’s list of candidates to head the Health and Human Services Department, a senior administration official said Saturday.

The source, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss private administration deliberations, said no decision was imminent. But the official added the former Kansas insurance commissioner was rising as Obama considers prospective candidates.

Now, Sebelius would certainly be qualified for the job, but this raises two important questions:

1. I thought the whole point of picking Daschle was to get someone who knew their way around the halls of congress. Unless Obama plans to enact his healthcare legislation by executive fiat a la Blago (and look at how well that turned out for him), it’s going to be essential that things with those blowhards in congress go as smoothly as possible.

2. Uh, hello, whose going to run for Sam Brownback’s senate seat? She’s probably not seriously interested in being a Senator if she takes this job, but it’s not as if she wouldn’t be able to be convinced as long as she’s not just starting a new job.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (2/2-4, registered voters):

Kathleen Sebelius (D): 47

Todd Tiahrt (R): 37

Kathleen Sebelius (D): 48

Jerry Moran (R): 36

(MoE: ±4%)

Todd Tiahrt (R): 24

Jerry Moran (R): 19

Undecided: 57

(MoE: ±5%)

The race for the open Senate seat in Kansas looks to be Kathleen Sebelius’s for the taking, if she would just show up (and hopefully these numbers will pique her interest). Research 2000 finds that the Kansas governor leads both of her potential candidates by a double-digit margin. If anyone can break the sixty-plus years of Republicans having a lock on the Kansas senate seats, it’s her.

There’s one sort of generalized caveat here, though: Sebelius isn’t over the 50% mark here, and yet she’s extremely well-known (with a 56% favorable/37% unfavorable, almost everyone has an opinion of her), leaving me to wonder where that last few percent to put her over the top in this dark-red state are going to come from. With both Reps. Tiahrt and Moran much less-known (check out the undecided numbers on their primary), they seem to have the room to expand. While you can’t deny that Sebelius is in the driver’s seat here, this looks to be a much closer race in Nov. 2010 than the current gaudy numbers indicate. (Discussion is already well underway in conspiracy‘s diary.)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/2-4. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trendlines)

Tiahrt (R) 37

Sebelius (D) 47

Moran (R) 36

Sebelius (D) 48

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo…

Contradicting that earlier GOP primary poll Tiahrt leads Moran 24-19.

“Yet here we have Gov. Kathleen Sebelius coming in with a solid 56-37 approval rating, including a surprisingly good 42-54 among Republicans, which is important given that Republicans make up half the state’s voters. In the head-to-head matchups, Sebelius, gets about a third of those voters. Independents, another quarter of the voter pool, like her at a 63-27 clip. If those numbers held up, she’d make history by having a Democrat represent Kansas in the U.S. Senate for the first time since 1939.”

Run Kathleen, run!

(Cross-posted from Kansas Jackass

Two bits of news out of the Republican Primary for the United States Senate seat Sam Brownback is vacating in 2010.

First, Congressman Todd Tiahrt announced the formation of his campaign steering committee.  It includes such Republican notables as State Representatives Kasha Kelly, Lance Kinzer, and Peggy Mast, along with former Speaker of the Kansas House Doug Mays, and Sharon Meissner, who we surmise is the wife of twice-failed Kansas State Board of Education candidate Dr. Robert Meissner.

Lovely, right?  I do appreciate they sent the press release directly to the blog, though.

In the news that actually matters, the Washington Post is today reporting a poll commissioned for the campaign of Congressman Jerry Moran includes much better news for him than it does good ol’ Todder.

Rep. Jerry Moran starts as the frontrunner for the GOP Senate nod in Kansas, according to new polling done for his campaign. Moran, who has held the massive central-western 1st district since 1996, holds a 41 percent to 25 percent edge over fellow Rep. Todd Tiahrt in a poll conducted by Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies.

“While it is still very early in the primary campaign, it is currently a lot better to be Jerry Moran than it is to be Todd Tiahrt,” Bolger wrote in the polling memo.

I’m sure people will read that and scream, “But it was a internal poll, so it’s just bullshit.”  While I’m sure campaign-released polls always only include selective information (like, for instance, we bet Moran isn’t telling anyone who he matches up against Gov. Kathleen Sebelius…), just because it’s an internal poll doesn’t immediately make it invalid.  A polling firm won’t get much work if their poll are routinely proven wrong in the press.

So, there you go- while Tiahrt’s busy naming his committee, Moran’s busy winning the election.  Long way ’til August 2010, but the pollster is right- I’d much rather be Jerry Moran today.

Cross posted from KansasJackass.com

With the news Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson will not be running for Governor of Kansas in 2010, all of the political hacks of the state looked at each other and said, “OK, if not Parkinson, who’s going to run as the Democratic nominee?”

Speculation fell immediately at the feet of former Minority Leader of the Kansas House of Representatives and current state Treasurer Dennis McKinney.

While McKinney does seem to fit the bill as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, let’s assume for a moment he decides to run for the office he now holds, state treasurer, in 2010, rather than launching a run for Governor. Who else might the Democrats nominate?

The Kansas Republican Party Executive Director Christian Morgan said dismissively:

Who do they have that’s going to step up?” said Christian Morgan, the Kansas GOP’s executive director. “I think they have an incredibly short bench.”

It’s not the length of your bench that matters, Chris- it’s how you use it.  One would have thought you’d know that as well as anyone.

It’s true we don’t have the problem the Republicans have- that so many of our elected officials think they’re good enough, smart enough, and that, doggone it, people like them that the Republicans always end up with primaries that involve knees to the groin and pulled hair, the Kansas Democratic Party has talent that has governed efficiently at every level- the hallmark of a person who could lead our state.  Household names they might not all be, but we’re guessing “Sandy Praeger” wasn’t, either, before she was elected Insurance Commissioner.

On my short list of potential Democratic candidates for Governor, we have two mayors:  Joe Reardon of the KCK-Wyandotte County Consolidated Government and Carl Brewer of Wichita.  Hailing from the largest population centers of the state & the economic engines thereof, these two men are already executives with many of the same responsibilities as found in the governor’s office, just on a smaller scale.  Actually crafting a budget and implementing policies that effect the economy in very direct ways are both things Senator Sam Brownback can’t claim he’s ever done, and would make both men excellent candidates for Governor.

Jill Docking is always mentioned as a potential candidate for statewide office because she came so dang close to trouncing Brownback when he first ran for the United States Senate in 1996.  While she hasn’t sought elective office since that bid more than a decade ago, Docking has stayed active in politics and currently sits on the Kansas Board of Regents- so she has first hand knowledge of the budget disaster the state faces- again, something Senator Sammy just doesn’t have.

Securities Commissioner Chris Biggs might decide to make a run at the Governor’s mansion- he’s another person, like Docking, who has run statewide and only lost very narrowly.

Either of the big-name District Attorneys in Kansas would be excellent candidates- Nola Foulston from Wichita or Charles Branson from Lawrence.  A little dash of hard and fast law-and-order can’t hurt.  And, again, you’ve got that whole administrative experience thing that comes in awfully handy.  It’s also encouraging both of them just got re-elected in landslides.

Congressman Dennis Moore could certainly, certainly run and win- but he’s already told us he’s running for re-election, so we’re pretending he’s not available right now. Same goes for Attorney General Steve Six– he’d better be running for his spot in ’10.

State Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley, former Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, State Senator Laura Kelly or Kansas Democratic Party Chairman Larry Gates could certainly all raise the money necessary to make a competitive bid, as could State Senator Janis Lee or former State Senator Christine Downey.

Ready for some real wild cards?  How about Secretary of Social and Rehabilitation Services Don Jordan or Secretary of Agriculture Adrian Polansky, or Roger Werholtz from the Department of Corrections?  Before you laugh those folk off the playing field, remember what Sam Browback was before he ran for Congress….yes, that’s right, just a lowly Secretary of Agriculture.

So, there, a bench.  It’s obvious some of those folk are more likely than others to even consider a run, but each one of them could run for Governor and win the seat against Brownback or Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh or Insurance Commissioner Praeger or whoever else might decide to jump in on the Republican side.

What’s our power ranking?  McKinney’s out front, followed by Mayors Reardon and Brewer with Docking, Biggs, and the DA’s next.  That is about as tenuous a “ranking” as there as even been, seeing as none of the people involved have even said they might be interested in running.

Just remember this:  2010 is still a long way off, friends.

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

A Democrat hasn’t represented Kansas in the U.S. Senate since the 1930’s.  There is no way a Democrat could win a U.S. Senate seat in Kansas in 2008!

Wrong.

Kansas could very well be the sleeper competitive Senate race of 2008.  Why?  Several reasons.

1) Unintimidating Approval Numbers: Look at Pat Roberts’ approval rating over the last year, according to Survey USA.

6/19/07: 51-37
5/24/07: 52-36
4/25/07: 48-39
3/20/07: 50-36
2/22/07: 49-37
1/24/07: 52-35
12/20/06: 52-36
11/22/06: 51-36
10/15/06: 47-42
9/20/06: 53-37
8/15/06: 48-39

Since August ’06, Roberts’ average approve-disapprove has been 50.3-37.3.  These are not the intimidating approval numbers of an unbeatable incumbent.  If a Senator from a traditional Presidential swing state had approval numbers like these, that Senator would be a top-tier target.  But, just because this is Kansas and not Ohio doesn’t mean as much as you’d think (as you’ll see in point number three).

Much more below the fold.

2) Roberts Oversaw Intelligence Scandals: From 2003 until the Democrats’ reclaiming of the Senate Majority, Pat Roberts served as Chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence.  During his tenure as Chairman, Roberts’ oversight was so lax that the committee was dubbed “the Senate Cover-up Committee.”  Roberts rolled over for the unpopular Bush administration on numerous intelligence issues including warrantless domestic spying and wiretapping, Iraq oversight, leaking classified information, and allowing torture.  I doubt that law-abiding Kansas families would be too thrilled with the fact that Pat Roberts supports Bush’s ability to warrantlessly spy on them.

3) Kansas Growing More Democratic-Friendly: A few indicators suggest that Kansas is growing more and more comfortable voting Democratic.  First, compare the approval ratings of a couple of chief executives.  George W. Bush’s approve-disapprove in Kansas stands at a shocking 38-60.  Bush’s approval in Kansas is so low that Pat Roberts himself has begun to qualify his support of Bush’s Iraq War.  Meanwhile, Governor Kathleen Sebelius, who was re-elected last year by a 58-40 margin, has an approve-disapprove that stands at 65-31.  The Democratic chief executive is considerably more popular than the Republican chief executive.  Beyond that, ten years ago, all four of Kansas’ U.S. House seats were held by Republicans.  Now, the breakdown is two Republicans, two Democrats, highlighted by Nancy Boyda’s stunning victory in 2006.  Between Bush’s unpopularity, Sebelius’ popularity, and the overall Congressional shift, Kansans are clearly more comfortable voting (D).

4) Lack of Support from National Republicans: With 22 Republican-held seats (including recent Wyoming appointee John Barrasso) to defend, compared with 12 Democratic seats, the NRSC will have its hands full.  Couple those numbers with the fact that the DSCC is trouncing the NRSC in fundraising, raising money at a pace double that of the NRSC.  With the NRSC worried about defending first-tier battlegrounds like Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Oregon, and Colorado, they probably won’t have much money left over to send in to Kansas to help Pat Roberts out.

5) The KS-GOP Mess: The Kansas Republican Party has seen better days.  The KS-GOP is apparently near bankruptcy.  The KS-GOP is getting sued over a labor dispute.  And, following a spate of high profile Republicans in Kansas changing their voter affiliation to Democrat (including current statewide officeholders and a former KS-GOP Chair!), the KS-GOP has cooked up a rather creepy Unity Pledge.  The KS-GOP is in bad shape.

The above five reasons outline why Pat Roberts can be deemed quite vulnerable in 2008.  So, who is there to challenge him?

Last month, I outlined a dozen prominent Kansas Democrats.  Of course, there are Governor Kathleen Sebelius and Congresspeople Dennis Moore and Nancy Boyda, though Governor Sebelius has expressed no interest and both Congresspeople are expected to run for re-election to the House.

There are also four Republicans-turned-Democrat on the list: first-term Lt. Gov. (and former KS-GOP Chair) Mark Parkinson, first-term state Attorney General Paul Morrison, former Kansas House Majority Leader Joe Hoagland, and former Lt. Gov. John Moore.  As freshmen in their current roles, Parkinson and Morrison are expected to stand pat and accrue more experience before an attempt at another office.  Hoagland and Moore both remain interesting options; in fact, Hoagland considered a challenge to Sam Brownback in 2004.

Former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture and former Kansas Congressperson Dan Glickman seems too comfortable at his current job as President of the Motion Picture Association of America to attempt a run; and, while I have heard rumors of interest from political activist, military veteran and Congressional spouse Steve Boyda, he may have his hands too full assisting Nancy in her re-election bid to undertake a statewide run of his own.

The three remaining names are: state Secretary of Revenue Joan Wagnon, whose resume is quite impressive; 2004 Senate candidate Joan Ruff, whose ’04 campaign seemed to gain a lot of traction only to have her inexplicably withdraw her bid shortly before the primary; and, 1996 Senate candidate Jill Docking, a businesswoman who is also the daughter-in-law of former Kansas Governor Robert Docking.

Should Governor Sebelius, of course the dream candidate, definitively insist against a Senate bid, I’d offer that the two most interesting names that the DSCC could pursue are state Secretary of Revenue Joan Wagnon and former Kansas House Majority Leader and Republican-turned-Democrat Joe Hoagland.  Regardless of who is pursued, it is inarguable that Pat Roberts is vulnerable to a strong challenger.  I hope that the KS-Dems work hard to propel a challenger forward and that the DSCC does not overlook Kansas as a potential Senate battleground.

[Cross-posted at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

As we look at the 2008 Senate map, and where we have pick-up opportunities, there are some obvious choices for who would be our best candidate, and there are some not so obvious choices.

From Sebelius in Kansas to Allen in Maine to Easley in North Carolina to a number of choices in New Hampshire to fewer choices in Idaho, there is much to discuss.

Who is your ideal 2008 Senate candidate? Who would you like to see run?

More below the fold.

SEEMS OBVIOUS

Colorado (Wayne Allard) – U.S. Rep. Mark Udall: he’s all-but-in, so no need for the hard sell, and he’s the frontrunner with momentum while the CO-GOP is looking to a potentially nasty primary

Kansas (Pat Roberts) – Governor Kathleen Sebelius: enjoys a 67-29 approval-disapproval as Governor

Maine (Susan Collins) – U.S. Rep. Tom Allen: one of only two ME Congressmen, he is routinely re-elected with 60+% of the vote

Mississippi (Thad Cochran) – Former state Attorney General Mike Moore: the most popular Democrat in Mississippi

Nebraska (Chuck Hagel) – Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey: a bright star on a relatively shallow bench

North Carolina (Elizabeth Dole) – Governor Mike Easley: already beating Elizabeth Dole in polling

Virginia (John Warner) – Former Governor Mark Warner: left the Governor’s office with an 80+% approval rating

SEEMS FAIRLY OBVIOUS

Alaska (Ted Stevens) – Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich: With Tony Knowles’ electoral results statewide dropping from ’98 to ’04 to ’06, it seems that Begich’s star is the fasting rising among AK-Dems

Oregon (Gordon Smith) – U.S. Rep. Earl Blumenauer: a popular Democrat re-elected with larger totals each successive election, he seems to be politically preparing for a statewide bid

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander) – Governor Phil Bredesen: enjoys a monstrous 73-24 approval rating, while Lamar is at 53-36

Wyoming (Mike Enzi) – Governor Dave Freudenthal/Former Congressional candidate Gary Trauner: pretty much the only two high profile Democrats in the state at the moment; Freudenthal enjoys a mammoth 77-19 approval, but has indicated no interest in the race; Trauner came within about 1,000 votes of winning the At-Large Congressional seat in 2006

SEEMS LESS OBVIOUS (deep benches) – who would you prefer?

Minnesota (Norm Coleman) – do we choose the high-profile satirist, the millionaire public interest attorney, or well-known legislators?

New Hampshire (John Sununu) – do we choose the popular, young Mayor, the prominent activist, the progressive businessman, or the medical professor/former astronaut? An embarrassment of riches that not only should scare Sununu but also Gregg in ’10

New Mexico (Pete Domenici) – several prominent Congresspeople and current and former statewide elected officials – just waiting on Domenici to make a retire or run for re-elect decision

SEEMS LESS OBVIOUS (slimmer or quieter benches) – who are your picks?
Alabama (Jeff Sessions)
Georgia (Saxby Chambliss)
Idaho (Larry Craig)
Kentucky (Mitch McConnell)
Oklahoma (Jim Inhofe)
South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)
Texas (John Cornyn)