Author: kansasjackass

(Cross-posted from Kansas Jackass

Two bits of news out of the Republican Primary for the United States Senate seat Sam Brownback is vacating in 2010.

First, Congressman Todd Tiahrt announced the formation of his campaign steering committee.  It includes such Republican notables as State Representatives Kasha Kelly, Lance Kinzer, and Peggy Mast, along with former Speaker of the Kansas House Doug Mays, and Sharon Meissner, who we surmise is the wife of twice-failed Kansas State Board of Education candidate Dr. Robert Meissner.

Lovely, right?  I do appreciate they sent the press release directly to the blog, though.

In the news that actually matters, the Washington Post is today reporting a poll commissioned for the campaign of Congressman Jerry Moran includes much better news for him than it does good ol’ Todder.

Rep. Jerry Moran starts as the frontrunner for the GOP Senate nod in Kansas, according to new polling done for his campaign. Moran, who has held the massive central-western 1st district since 1996, holds a 41 percent to 25 percent edge over fellow Rep. Todd Tiahrt in a poll conducted by Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies.

“While it is still very early in the primary campaign, it is currently a lot better to be Jerry Moran than it is to be Todd Tiahrt,” Bolger wrote in the polling memo.

I’m sure people will read that and scream, “But it was a internal poll, so it’s just bullshit.”  While I’m sure campaign-released polls always only include selective information (like, for instance, we bet Moran isn’t telling anyone who he matches up against Gov. Kathleen Sebelius…), just because it’s an internal poll doesn’t immediately make it invalid.  A polling firm won’t get much work if their poll are routinely proven wrong in the press.

So, there you go- while Tiahrt’s busy naming his committee, Moran’s busy winning the election.  Long way ’til August 2010, but the pollster is right- I’d much rather be Jerry Moran today.

(Cross posed from Kansas Jackass)

With radical right-winger Todd Tiahrt not running for re-election to the Kansas 4th District seat in Congress in favor of a bid for the United States Senate(probably), we’ve got another open congressional seat on our hands in Kansas.

We already talked about who the Republicans might decide to put up, with Susan Wagle, Matt Schlapp and his Mom Sue, and Derek Schmidt all seeming to be likely candidates.

Now we turn to the Democratic side.

Just like our previous lists for Governor and the United State Senate, these are folks I think could potentially make a respectable run at the office in discussion, and they certainly do vary in likelihood and viability.

State Rep. Raj Goyle shocked the Kansas political establishment when he beat incumbent Republican State Rep. Bonnie Huy in 2006, and has since made a name for himself as an able and ambitious member of the state legislature.  As a testament to the quality of a candidate he is, in his reliably Republican district his original election in 2006 wasn’t that close (56%-44%) and his re-election in 2008 was a blow-out: He won 67% of the vote.

Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer certainly does have the name recognition to run, though we aren’t sure how the non-Wichita parts of the KS-04 would react to him.  State Representative Jim Ward and Board of Regents member and 1996 Senate candidate Jill Docking are also both candidate who could certainly raise the cash and create the organization needed to win.

In my eyes, after Docking, we’ve got quite a jump in the likelihood these folks might consider running.

Former State Senator Don Betts ran in 2008 and got smashed by Tiahrt.  While Betts certainly might do better when the seat is open, I’m afraid his political future has been dashed in some pretty cold water.  State Rep. Melody McCray-Miller is a long shot, but, again, could put together the campaign needed to win a seat.

Here’s two way, way, way wild cards:  Former Congressman Dan Glickman and Vice Chairwoman of the Kansas Democratic Party Teresa Krusor.  Both these politicos could certainly raise oodles of cash through connections in Kansas and nationwide.  Also, we know Glickman can run and win in the area- he did represent Wichita for a hundred thousand years in Congress before Tiahrt swept in in the ’90’s.

These are just initial thoughts, again, it’s a long way to 2010, but I think each of these people could run against anyone and win.

And, by-the-by, our money’s on Goyle.

Cross posted from KansasJackass.com

With the news Lt. Gov. Mark Parkinson will not be running for Governor of Kansas in 2010, all of the political hacks of the state looked at each other and said, “OK, if not Parkinson, who’s going to run as the Democratic nominee?”

Speculation fell immediately at the feet of former Minority Leader of the Kansas House of Representatives and current state Treasurer Dennis McKinney.

While McKinney does seem to fit the bill as the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, let’s assume for a moment he decides to run for the office he now holds, state treasurer, in 2010, rather than launching a run for Governor. Who else might the Democrats nominate?

The Kansas Republican Party Executive Director Christian Morgan said dismissively:

Who do they have that’s going to step up?” said Christian Morgan, the Kansas GOP’s executive director. “I think they have an incredibly short bench.”

It’s not the length of your bench that matters, Chris- it’s how you use it.  One would have thought you’d know that as well as anyone.

It’s true we don’t have the problem the Republicans have- that so many of our elected officials think they’re good enough, smart enough, and that, doggone it, people like them that the Republicans always end up with primaries that involve knees to the groin and pulled hair, the Kansas Democratic Party has talent that has governed efficiently at every level- the hallmark of a person who could lead our state.  Household names they might not all be, but we’re guessing “Sandy Praeger” wasn’t, either, before she was elected Insurance Commissioner.

On my short list of potential Democratic candidates for Governor, we have two mayors:  Joe Reardon of the KCK-Wyandotte County Consolidated Government and Carl Brewer of Wichita.  Hailing from the largest population centers of the state & the economic engines thereof, these two men are already executives with many of the same responsibilities as found in the governor’s office, just on a smaller scale.  Actually crafting a budget and implementing policies that effect the economy in very direct ways are both things Senator Sam Brownback can’t claim he’s ever done, and would make both men excellent candidates for Governor.

Jill Docking is always mentioned as a potential candidate for statewide office because she came so dang close to trouncing Brownback when he first ran for the United States Senate in 1996.  While she hasn’t sought elective office since that bid more than a decade ago, Docking has stayed active in politics and currently sits on the Kansas Board of Regents- so she has first hand knowledge of the budget disaster the state faces- again, something Senator Sammy just doesn’t have.

Securities Commissioner Chris Biggs might decide to make a run at the Governor’s mansion- he’s another person, like Docking, who has run statewide and only lost very narrowly.

Either of the big-name District Attorneys in Kansas would be excellent candidates- Nola Foulston from Wichita or Charles Branson from Lawrence.  A little dash of hard and fast law-and-order can’t hurt.  And, again, you’ve got that whole administrative experience thing that comes in awfully handy.  It’s also encouraging both of them just got re-elected in landslides.

Congressman Dennis Moore could certainly, certainly run and win- but he’s already told us he’s running for re-election, so we’re pretending he’s not available right now. Same goes for Attorney General Steve Six– he’d better be running for his spot in ’10.

State Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley, former Congresswoman Nancy Boyda, State Senator Laura Kelly or Kansas Democratic Party Chairman Larry Gates could certainly all raise the money necessary to make a competitive bid, as could State Senator Janis Lee or former State Senator Christine Downey.

Ready for some real wild cards?  How about Secretary of Social and Rehabilitation Services Don Jordan or Secretary of Agriculture Adrian Polansky, or Roger Werholtz from the Department of Corrections?  Before you laugh those folk off the playing field, remember what Sam Browback was before he ran for Congress….yes, that’s right, just a lowly Secretary of Agriculture.

So, there, a bench.  It’s obvious some of those folk are more likely than others to even consider a run, but each one of them could run for Governor and win the seat against Brownback or Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh or Insurance Commissioner Praeger or whoever else might decide to jump in on the Republican side.

What’s our power ranking?  McKinney’s out front, followed by Mayors Reardon and Brewer with Docking, Biggs, and the DA’s next.  That is about as tenuous a “ranking” as there as even been, seeing as none of the people involved have even said they might be interested in running.

Just remember this:  2010 is still a long way off, friends.