Author: conspiracy

So, our friends over at RRH think they’ve found a flaw in the way PPP are conducting their polls. Too many liberals and not enough independents they say. The assumption is they are somehow skewing their results in favor of Democratic candidates. Since November we haven’t really seen much polling from firms other than PPP. But there have been some, particularly with regard to Senate races. I thought it might be worth bringing them all together here to compare and contrast.

Florida – Incumbent Bill Nelson (D)

In December PPP found Nelson leading Connie Mack by 8, Mike Haridopolos by 12, Adam Hasner by 16 and George

LeMieux by 11.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

In February Mason-Dixon found Nelson up by 5 on Mack, by 21 on Haridopolos, by 22 on Hasner and 14 on LeMieux.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c…

The latest PPP numbers find Nelson leading Mack by 13, Haridopolos by 16, Hasner by 16 and LeMieux by 15.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Michigan – Incumbent Debbie Stabenow (D)

In December PPP found Stabenow up by 1 point on Pete Hoekstra.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

In February EPIC-MRA found Stabenow up by 2 points on Hoekstra.

http://www.epicmra.com/press/S…

The latest PPP numbers have Stabenow up 12 points on Hoekstra.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Montana – Incumbent Jon Tester (D)

In November PPP found Tester trailing Denny Rehberg by 2 points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

In January Opinion Diagnostics found Rehberg leading by 6 points.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/D…

In March Mason-Dixon found Tester leading Rehberg by 1 point.

http://helenair.com/news/artic…

Nebraska – Incumbent Ben Nelson (D)

In December Magallan found Nelson trailing Jon Bruning by 14 points and Don Stenberg by 6 points.

http://www.magellanstrategies….

In January PPP found Nelson trailing Bruning by 11 points and Stenberg by 4 points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

New Jersey – Incumbent Bob Menendez (D)

In January Fairleigh Dickinson University found Menendez leading Tom Kean, Jr. by 10 points and Kim Guadagno by 21 points.

http://publicmind.fdu.edu/oandm/

In January PPP found Menendez leading Kean by 2 points and Guadagno by 15 points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Pennsylvania – Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. (D)

In January PPP found Casey leading Rick Santorum by 7 points, Jim Gerlach by 16 points and Charlie Dent by 20 points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

In February Municipoll found Casey leading Santorum by 12 points, Gerlach by 14 points and Dent by 19 points.

http://municipoll.com/yahoo_si…

Massachusetts – Incumbent Scott Brown (R)

In December PPP found Brown leading Mike Capuano by 16 points.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

In March Western New England College found Brown leading Capuano by 13 points.

http://assets.wnec.edu/112/Sen…

66 seats previously held by Democrats in the House of Representatives fell to the Republicans. Open seats accounted for 14 losses and incumbents accounted for 52.

LA-03 (Open – Melancon)

TN-06 (Open – Gordon)

NY-29 (Open – Massa)

AR-02 (Open – Snyder)

KS-03 (Open – Moore)

IN-08 (Open – Ellsworth)

TN-08 (Open – Tanner)

WI-07 (Open – Obey)

PA-07 (Open – Sestak)

AR-01 (Open – Berry)

MI-01 (Open – Stupak)

WA-03 (Open – Baird)

NH-02 (Open – Hodes)

WV-01 (Open – Mollohan)

PA-03 (Dahlkemper)

FL-08 (Grayson)

OH-01 (Driehaus)

OH-15 (Kilroy)

TX-17 (Edwards)

FL-24 (Kosmas)

IL-11 (Halvorson)

CO-04 (Markey)

FL-02 (Boyd)

NH-01 (Shea-Porter)

WI-08 (Kagen)

GA-08 (Marshall)

NV-03 (Titus)

MD-01 (Kratovil)

PA-11 (Kanjorski)

VA-05 (Perriello)

OH-16 (Boccieri)

VA-02 (Nye)

SC-05 (Spratt)

MS-01 (Childers)

AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)

NM-03 (Teague)

ND-AL (Pomeroy)

AZ-05 (Mitchell)

SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin)

IL-14 (Foster)

PA-10 (Carney)

NY-19 (Hall)

IL-17 (Hare)

CO-03 (Salazar)

PA-08 (Murphy)

IN-09 (Hill)

AL-02 (Bright)

ID-01 (Minnick)

NJ-03 (Adler)

FL-22 (Klein)

TX-23 (Rodriguez)

OH-18 (Space)

TN-04 (Davis)

MO-04 (Skelton)

MI-07 (Schauer)

NY-20 (Murphy)

VA-09 (Boucher)

OH-06 (Wilson)

MS-04 (Taylor)

NY-24 (Arcuri)

IL-08 (Bean)

NC-02 (Etheridge)

MN-08 (Oberstar)

TX-27 (Ortiz)

NY-25 (Maffei)

NY-13 (McMahon)

Now, what interested me was where these people lost and indeed, where did people survive?

Seats lost with a GOP PVI (52):

TX-17 R+20

MS-04 R+20

ID-01 R+18

AL-02 R+16

MS-01 R+14

MO-04 R+14

MD-01 R+13

TN-06 R+13

TN-04 R+13

LA-03 R+12

VA-09 R+11

GA-08 R+10

ND-AL R+10

SD-AL R+9

WV-01 R+9

PA-10 R+8

AR-01 R+8

IN-08 R+8

SC-05 R+7

OH-18 R+7

CO-04 R+6

NM-02 R+6

AZ-01 R+6

IN-09 R+6

FL-02 R+6

TN-08 R+6

VA-05 R+5

VA-02 R+5

C0-03 R+5

AZ-05 R+5

AR-02 R+5

NY-29 R+5

OH-16 R+4

NY-13 R+4

TX-23 R+4

FL-24 R+4

NY-19 R+3

PA-03 R+3

KS-03 R+3

MI-01 R+3

NY-20 R+2

NY-24 R+2

MI-07 R+2

FL-08 R+2

TX-27 R+2

NC-02 R+2

OH-06 R+2

IL-14 R+1

NJ-03 R+1

IL-11 R+1

IL-08 R+1

NH-01 R+0

In these hyper-partisan times even multi-term incumbents couldn’t hold on in the terrible environment despite having done so easily in the past.

Seats retained with a GOP PVI (17):

UT-02 R+15 (Matheson)

OK-02 R+14 (Boren)

KY-06 R+9 (Chandler)

AR-04 R+7 (Ross)

NC-11 R+6 (Shuler)

PA-04 R+6 (Altmire)

PA-17 R+6 (Holden)

WV-03 R+6 (Rahall)

MN-07 R+5 (Peterson)

NC-07 R+5 (McIntyre)

AZ-08 R+4 (Giffords)

IN-02 R+2 (Donnelly)

NC-08 R+2 (Kissell)

CA-11 R+1 (McNerney)

MN-01 R+1 (Walz)

NY-23 R+1 (Owens)

PA-12 R+1 (Critz)

These select few deserve kudos for surving.

Seats lost with a Dem PVI (14):

WA-03 D+0

WI-08 D+0

OH-01 D+1

OH-15 D+1

FL-22 D+1

NV-03 D+2

NH-02 D+3

PA-07 D+3

WI-07 D+3

NY-25 D+3

PA-08 D+3

IL-17 D+3

MN-08 D+3

PA-11 D+4

Proof positive that the wave was not confined to traditional Republican territory.

Republican seats with a Dem PVI (20):

WA-03 D+0

WI-08 D+0

FL-22 D+1

NJ-02 D+1

OH-01 D+1

OH-12 D+1  

OH-15 D+1

NV-03 D+2

PA-08 D+2

PA-15 D+2

IL-17 D+3

MN-08 D+3  

NH-02 D+3  

NY-25 D+3

PA-07 D+3

WA-08 D+3  

WI-07 D+3

PA-06 D+4  

PA-11 D+4

IL-10 D+6

Obviously redistricting makes this more difficult but there are some juicy targets here for Dems to go on the offense.

Seats lost that voted for Obama (30):

VA-02

TX-23

KS-03

NY-19

MI-01

NY-20

FL-08

MI-07

NY-24

NC-02

TX-27

WI-08

IL-14

IL-11

IL-08

NJ-03

NH-01

WA-03

OH-15

FL-22

OH-01

NV-03

PA-08

WI-07

MN-08

NY-25

NH-02

IL-17

PA-07

PA-11

Obama won big so it was to be expected that some of these districts would slip back.

Seats lost by incumbents that voted for Kerry (6):

NY-25

IL-17

PA-08

FL-22

MN-08

PA-11

The most disappointing group of losses in my mind.

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

August, September and October rankings at links.

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

To start with it may be worth highlighting the numbers from each of those previous three diaries.

August Projection

SENATE – GOP +5

GOVERNORS – GOP +5

September Projection

SENATE – GOP +6

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

October Projection

SENATE – GOP +7

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

I call that a trend. And not a good one. Unfortunately these final projections continue that trend.

SENATE

Dem Tilt

WA (Not at all confident here. And it will probably take several weeks to see if I’m right.)

Rep Tilt

NV (Polling could well be unreliable here but I have to go with it. Hope I’m wrong.)

CO (Bennet has held on well here but I suspect the year is too much for him.)

IL (Still possible that unexpected Dem turnout can save Alexi.)

PA (Sestak has closed fast but I don’t think it will be quite enough.)

Dem Lean

CA (This one was a worry at times but I think most of us always felt confident enough.)

WV (Still say he was crazy to push for an election this year but it looks like Manchin will get away with it.)

Rep Lean  

WI (Poor campaign from Feingold but may not have mattered. His principles are both admirable and frustrating all at the same time.)

AK (Murkowski likely pulls it off but weird things happen up there. No result of the three would shock me.)

Dem Favored

DE (Chris Coons will be my favorite Dem Senate Freshman. Not that there is much competition.)

CT (Another that caused a few nerves but the fundamentals always suggested retention.)

Rep Favored

MO (The state may be trending away but I think, like many before her, Robin will be back.)

NH (Many say Hodes ran a poor campaign. I don’t buy it. The year made it impossible here with so many indies.)

KY (Paul would have won even without Conway ad own goal. At least he will be entertaining.)

OH (Nobody was beating Portman this year with all that cash.)

FL (Rubio may or may not be a national figure in waiting but Crist is certainly done on that front.)

NC (Biggest recruiting fail of the cycle but even someone like Cooper may have struggled with the environment.)

IN (Surprisingly lackluster campaign from Ellsworth.)

AR (The state has finally broken to join the rest of the region in becoming Republican.)

LA (Vitter is scum but the electorate down their think Obama is scummier.)

ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt  

OR (Kitzhaber turned things around just in time.)

VT (If Rasmussen says Shumlin is leading I’m more than happy to believe him for once.)

FL (Biggest consolation prize of the night.)

Rep Tilt

CT (Late momentum for Foley probably keeps this Republican.)

OH (Strickland may well yet pull this out. Would be a another great consolation prize.)

IL (Can turnout save Quinn? Probably not but possible.)

Dem Lean

CA (Money can’t buy you love and all that. Always preferred nostalgia myself.)

MN (I wonder what would have happened here without the perennial third wheel?)

MA (Very impressed with Patrick’s recovery. Cahill makes little difference in the end.)

HI (Abercrombie recovering from a few shaky polls.)

CO (Suspect Tancredo’s ceiling is 45 percent.)

RI (Chafee ain’t a Dem but Caprio makes him as good as.)

NH (Nature of the year that this ended as close as it did.)

Rep Lean  

PA (D, R, D, R. Like clockwork.)

TX (Very hopeful White has another run in him.)

GA (Environment means no return for Barnes despite Deal’s ethical issues.)

NM (Denish weighed down by Richardson and national environment but Martinez a good nominee anyway.)

WI (Barrett never could shake bad environment and Doyle’s unpopularity.)

SC (Tighter than many expected but Haley wins nevertheless.)

ME (Hoping Cutler can pull a shocker here but probably not.)

Dem Favored    

MD (Senator O’Malley in the future perhaps? Maybe the cabinet?)

NY (I suspect Paladino may well cost the GOP some House seats.)

AR (Beebe bucks the tide quite easily.)

Rep Favored

NV (One Reid was quite enough already.)

MI (Figure that Bernero may out perform the polls a little but still won’t get close.)

AZ (Hating Brown people saves Brewer her job.)

OK (Nobody really ever expected to be even remotely competitive here did they?)

IA (Culver may well have lost to any Republican. He never had a chance agianst Branstad.)

TN (There are many worse people than Haslam that could be winning this for Republicans.)

KS (I do wonder if this would have been competitive in a better year. Parkinson may even have had an outside shot this year.)

AL (Sparksmania didn’t quite materialize.)

ID (Otter polls surprisingly weak once again but that hardly matters up here.)

AK (Ethan Berkowitz meet Tony Knowles. You have much in common.)

WY safely in the GOP column.

Final Projection

SENATE – GOP +8

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

Bonus Projection

HOUSE – GOP +46-51

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

August and September rankings at links.

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

SENATE

Dem Tilt

WV (Jury is out on wisdom of election this year.)

CT (People like Blumenthal and aren’t fussed about McMahon but closer than it should be.)

NV (Reid can’t pull away but surely Nevadans can’t elect that nut. Can they?)

Rep Tilt

IL (Hardest call to make. I’m still confident Alexi can get over the hump though.)

Dem Lean

NY (Kirsten’s problem was always that people don’t know her. First ads now helping with that.)

WA (Need to see polls not by Rasmussen to see if Rossi has bounced back.)

CA (Boxer isn’t out of the woods yet but the GOP have better targets.)

Rep Lean

WI (Shocked this has shifted so quickly and so convincingly.)

CO (Bennet doesn’t seem to be getting any traction.)

KY (The one remaining shot at a pickup but I suspect it will be another heartbreaker like ’04.)

PA (Sestak has left it too late this time I fear.)

MO (This will be close but doesn’t look good.)

NH (Independents leaning heavily Republican across the country so Hodes has little chance with them dominating the electorate here.)

Dem Favored

DE (Thanks Teabaggers!)

Rep Favored

OH (No Brunner fans she would not be doing better.)

FL (Crist is becoming a bit of a joke.)

NC (Marshall has no money so no contest.)

IN (In any other year I think Ellsworth wins. Want more polls.)

AR (Lincoln won’t lose as big as some think.)

AK (McAdams has great ads but think Dems will be strategic and help Murkowski.)

LA (Melancon ad hitting Vitter where it hurts in final bid but he was never winning this year if any.)

ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt  

CA (August as good as it gets for Whitman. As suspected Brown just had to go up on tv to get ahead. No blowout though.)

Rep Tilt

OH (Strickland running a great campaign but Kasich a tough opponent.)

IL (Quinn is clearly closing despite his problems. Not sure if it will be enough though.)

ME (LePage seems to be sinking but suspect he still leads. Just.)

VT (Need more polling to see if Shumlin has closed here.)

FL (Scott floods the airwaves and Floridians don’t seem to care how dodgy he is.)

OR (Kitzhaber surprisingly weak but still in with a good shout.)

Dem Lean

CT (Foley has skeletons and Malloy does not which in a blue state means a Dem gain.)

MN (Dayton isn’t perfect but split field means a Dem gain.)

MD (Blue state and decent O’Malley approvals mean no Ehrlich return.)

NH (Longevity and the cycle hurt Lynch but I think he’ll be fine.)

MA (Patrick’s job numbers have risen steadily. Suspect he wins even if Cahill drops out late.)

Rep Lean  

PA (Onorato seems to be closing a little but too little too late I fancy.)

TX (Great campaign from Bill White but afraid the state is just too red this year.)

GA (Cannot quite believe Deal is getting a pass here.)

NM (Martinez has a perfect resume for this year.)

WI (Seems to be moving away from Barrett.)

Dem Favored

CO (Hickenlooper breaks 50 on election day despite having two opponents.)

HI (Abercrombie will have to work for it but should be fine.)

RI (Caprio with the advantage but even if Chafee wins this is basically a Dem gain either way.)

NY (No longer a rout but I’m not worried.)

AR (Every incumbent Dem should be on this board!)

Rep Favored

SC (Latest poll looks dodgy but still expect this to tighten in the final weeks.)

NV (Possible Rory could make this close but I can’t see any way he wins.)

MI (Since a Republican was always likely to win Snyder isn’t half bad.)

AZ (Brewer’s debate debacle doesn’t seem to have hurt much.)

OK (I suspect no total blowout but a comfy margin all the same.)

IA (Culver might be toast even with a weaker Republican.)

TN (McWherter turns out to be a bit of dud.)

KS (Nobody seems to have much love for Brownback but even fewer love Dems this year.)

ID (Closer than expected but Otter will win.)

AK (Berkowitz is a decent nominee but I bet he wishes he had challenged Murkowski instead.)

WY safely in the GOP column.

Projection

SENATE – GOP +7

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

August rankings at link.

http://www.swingstateproject.c…

SENATE

Dem Tilt

IL (Which matters more, state or year? I think the latter but only just.)

NV (Rasmussen’s latest has Reid up three with leaners which is probably about right.)

WI (Basically a tie in most polling. I think the DSCC will have to bail Feingold out here.)

WA (Same deal as WI and IL.)

Rep Tilt

CO (Very few post-primary polls but looks like Buck is up. Bennet has a chance because his opponent says crazy things.)

KY (Best chance of a pickup but only because of Rand Paul.)

FL (Rubio ahead thanks to the exposure of the Dem primary but Crist still well in the game.)

Rep Lean

MO (I don’t expect Blunt to win by much but I now expect him to win.)

PA (I really hope Sestak hasn’t left it too late to try and define Toomey.)

NH (Still a chance that Ayotte isn’t the nominee.)

OH (Fisher doesn’t have the money to compete.)

Dem Lean

CA (Very close to only a tilt but CA is more Dem than WA and WI.)

CT (Maybe should be favored still but the last two polls were a worry.)

Rep Lean

NC (Unless the DSCC gets involved I don’t see Marshall getting close. Unfortunately I doubt they can afford it.)

Dem Favored

WV (Need to see more polling before moving this to leans but suspect may need to.)

Rep Favored

DE (Castle probably wins the primary but it is damaging him. I think Coons will surprise people.)

IN (Like Castle, Coats never seems to poll much above 50 but the year looks to much to overcome.)

LA (Vitter doesn’t deserve his easy ride. A Dem would be toast in an equivalent state.)

AR (I seriously doubt that Lincoln loses as she polls but she is certain to lose.)

AK (Not as hopeful as some about this but I guess you never know.)

ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt

OR (Kitzhaber goes negative and not a moment too soon.)

MN (Would be leans if not for the latest poll.)

MD (O’Malley consistently leads if by a small amount.)

FL (Exit of Chiles is a boost to Sink but this is no slam dunk despite Scott’s negatives.)

MA (I suspect Cahill’s support will start to bleed away but Patrick should still squeeze past Baker.)

Rep Tilt

GA (Deal was probably the best opponent for Barnes but still tough this year.)

IL (Hopefully Quinn continues to close but he is still behind for now.)

ME (Not much polling here so anything could happen as in the primaries.)

VT (The primary may have been civil but overtime is hurting.)

NM (Denish has work to do but all is not lost.)

WI (Walker missteps mean I’m more bullish here than I was.)

CA (Whitman barrage finally takes a toll in the polls. I still think Brown can turn it around.)

Dem Lean

CT (Malloy has the advantage but I wonder if Foley’s money will yet tighten things up.)

Rep Lean

AZ (Brewer’s debate mess gives Goddard a chance.)

MI (Snyder has appeal to Dems but hopefully Bernero can yet catch fire.)

PA (Probably ends up closer than the polls suggest but not much chance of an Onorato win.)

TX (Polling seems to be moving this out of grasp which is a damn shame.)

OH (Can’t quite believe Kasich is doing this but believe we must.)

Dem Favored

CO (Governor Hickenlooper I presume!)

HI (Abercrombie likely wins primary and then the general.)

RI (Either Chafee wins or Caprio wins, neither is a Republican so we can safely count this as a Dem pickup.)

Rep Favored

SC (If any of this category tighten it will be here. Pushback in the base to Haley gives Sheheen an opening. Possibly.)

OK (Askins may yet make this competitive but probably not enough.)

IA (Ugly numbers for the incumbent means defeat.)

NV (Rory needs to avoid a blowout to help his dad.)

AL (Sparks is good but Bentley is better and this is Alabama in a heavily GOP year.)

ID (Not as big a lead for the GOP as one would expect but it is still Idaho.)

KS (Theoretically Holland may be able to exploit the state moderate/conservative split but I doubt he gets close.)

SD (Daugaaurd is popular and in 2010 that is more than enough for a Republican in a red state.)

TN (Haslam has some moderate credentials so could be worse I guess.)

AK (Parnell should be safe but Berkowitz will make him work for it.)

WY (No Freudenthal means no Dem governor.)

UT (This is Utah.)

Projection

SENATE – GOP +6

GOVERNORS – GOP +7

GOPVOTER made a query about this data earlier and though this diary is intended for him I’m sure it proves to be a useful resource for everyone here at SSP.

We all know turnout from Republicans will be up and Democrats down from two years ago, the question is how much? Personally, I’ve been working under the assumption, based on the fact the change in New Jersey (competitive right until the end last November, unlike Virginia) was a six-point movement in favor of the GOP, of adding three to the Republican number and taking three from the Democratic number. Obviously it won’t be uniform like that but I think it a decent average by which to view the likely electorate this fall.

From left to right, Democrats, Republicans, Independents.

2004

Alabama

34-48-18

Alaska

19-41-40

Arizona

30-44-26

Arkansas

41-31-29

California

39-33-27

Colorado

29-38-33

Connecticut

37-30-33

Delaware

41-32-26

Florida

37-41-23

Georgia

34-42-24

Hawaii

40-24-36

Idaho

22-50-27

Illinois

39-34-27

Indiana

32-46-22

Iowa

34-36-30

Kansas

27-50-23

Kentucky

44-40-17

Louisiana

42-40-18

Maine

31-30-38

Maryland

48-30-22

Massachusetts

39-16-44

Michigan

39-34-27

Minnesota

38-35-27

Mississippi

38-47-15

Missouri

35-36-29

Montana

32-39-29

Nebraska

24-53-22

Nevada

35-39-26

New Hampshire

25-32-44

New Jersey

39-31-30

New Mexico

40-33-27

New York

45-29-26

North Carolina

39-40-21

North Dakota

27-41-32

Ohio

35-40-25

Oklahoma

40-43-16

Oregon

32-34-34

Pennsylvania

41-39-20

Rhode Island

39-16-45

South Carolina

33-44-23

South Dakota

32-47-21

Tennessee

32-40-28

Texas

32-43-24

Utah

19-58-24

Vermont

31-27-41

Virginia

35-39-26

Washington

36-32-33

West Virginia

50-32-18

Wisconsin

35-38-27

Wyoming

25-53-22

2008

Alabama

37-45-18

Alaska

20-37-43

Arizona

32-39-30

Arkansas

36-32-31

California

42-30-28

Colorado

30-31-39

Connecticut

43-27-31

Delaware

48-31-21

Florida

37-34-29

Georgia

38-35-28

Hawaii

45-20-34

Idaho

24-48-28

Illinois

47-28-26

Indiana

36-41-24

Iowa

34-33-33

Kansas

26-49-25

Kentucky

47-38-15

Louisiana

42-38-21

Maine

35-26-39

Maryland

51-28-21

Massachusetts

43-17-40

Michigan

41-29-29

Minnesota

40-36-25

Mississippi

40-45-15

Missouri

40-34-26

Montana

33-33-35

Nebraska

29-48-22

Nevada

38-30-32

New Hampshire

29-27-45

New Jersey

44-28-28

New Mexico

44-28-28

New York

50-26-25

North Carolina

42-31-27

North Dakota

28-38-33

Ohio

39-31-30

Oklahoma

41-44-14

Oregon

36-27-37

Pennsylvania

44-37-18

Rhode Island

42-16-42

South Carolina

38-41-20

South Dakota

36-42-22

Tennessee

32-33-35

Texas

33-34-33

Utah

21-50-29

Vermont

37-23-39

Virginia

39-33-27

Washington

36-26-39

West Virginia

48-34-19

Wisconsin

39-33-29

Wyoming

26-52-22

I’m going to do one of these on the first Monday of every month between now and election day. Though I expect movement in most of these races it is time to do away with the tossup cop out and get off the fence!

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

SENATE

Dem Tilt

IL (Absolute deadheat but since the topic of conversation is all about Kirk I’m giving it Alexi in such a blue state.)

NV (I’m less certain this is has become clear cut as some but Reid has definitely moved ahead at least for now.)

WI (Feingold never wins by whopping margins and races in Wisconsin always seem closer than most.)

WA (No fireable offence from Murray and decent approvals. Rossi has baggage and is only close because of the cycle.)

Rep Tilt

PA (Small lead for Toomey right now but I expect Sestak to improve his position when he gets better known.)

CO (Until the latest SurveyUSA poll both Buck and Norton lead both Dems. Until the primary shakes itself out we aren’t going to see movement.)

KY (Paul has the lead because he has kept his mouth shut lately. Hopefully ads and debates will help Conway.)

OH (I fear this is a huge missed opportunity. Portman is ripe for attack but Fisher doesn’t have resources to do it.)

MO (Will be close until the end and I still think Robin can do it despite the unsavory environment.)

NH (Ayotte has clearly been hurt recently but I’m skeptical Hodes can get over the top in this one.)

Dem Lean

CA (Small percentage lead for Boxer but much harder for a Republican to close that gap in real votes in California.)

FL*(I’m counting Crist as a Dem pickup though I still think there is a chance he caucuses with the GOP.)

Rep Lean

NC (Don’t see Burr losing here. Not this year, not with his CoH advantage.)

Dem Favored

CT (Blumenthal should be fine since he managed to ride out his exaggerations far better than Mark Kirk.)

WV (Without Capito in the race Manchin should be fine so long as he doesn’t coast.)

Rep Favored

IN (Ellsworth’s problem is name recognition and bad environment. He will close here fast but not sure fast enough.)

LA (Melancon is doing well just to keep this remotely competitive. The electorate wants someone to oppose Obama 100%.)

AR (Blanche shocked everybody once so can she do it again? No. Though I think it will be closer by election day.)

DE (Coons will surprise many and narrow the gap further as we go on but like IN I’m not sure it will be enough.)

We can put ND safely in the GOP column.

GOVERNORS

Dem Tilt

OR (Polls are tied but have to give it to Kitzhaber for his campaigning skills and the lean of the state.)

MN (Emmer is killing himself rather than anything the Dems are doing. I think Dayton will get a clear win in the end.)

RI*(I’m counting Chafee as a Dem since he is arguably more liberal than the actual Dem nominee.)

MD (O’Malley hasn’t committed a fireable offense and has decent approvals. Lean of the state should be enough.)

FL (The Republicans have nuked each other and Chiles looks like a non-factor.)

MA (Deval seems to be improving his approvals and Cahill means he has a decent shot at re-election.)

CA (Once Brown starts running ads he should be ok in such a blue state.)

Rep Tilt

GA (Barnes is an underdog in a red state but he is closer than he should be. Both Republicans have skeletons.)

IL (Brady leads but the lean of the state may be enough yet for Quinn if he can paint his opponent as too far right.)

ME (LePage is ahead but like in RI anything could happen here including an indie win.)

OH (Polling is mixed here but my best guess is Kasich has a narrow lead. Strickland can still pull it out though.)

VT (Dubie ahead here but probably more to do with name recognition than anything else. Suspect it will be close.)

TX (Bill White is doing a great job here but I expect the year and state is just too Republican.)

NM (Martinez with a small lead but Denish can win if she is able to seperate herself from Bill Richardson.)

WI (Small leads for both Republicans but Barrett was as good a nominee as Dems could get here. Still possible.)

Dem Lean

CO (What a mess for the GOP! Hick should win easily here unless McInnis drops out post-primary.)

CT (Lamont really should win this one and I think he will.)

Rep Lean

AZ (Great change in fortunes for Brewer. Maybe Goddard can make this close but I have my doubts.)

MI (Post-primary this may get interesting, especially if Hoekstra is the GOP nominee.)

PA (Onorato will close when he gets his name recognition up but PA has a pattern here that likely won’t change.)

OK (Not as big a Fallin lead as I expected but the year and state makes it very hard for Askins.)

Dem Favored

HI (Abercrombie has a big lead and should win this going away.)

Rep Favored

IA (Branstad is popular and Culver is not. Only one outcome looks likely here.)

NV (Maybe Harry’s improving fortunes helps Rory but Sandoval is no Sharron Angle!)

AL (Sparks is probably as good as it gets for Dems but a fresh face in Bentley in a GOP year makes this very tough.)

ID (Not as big a lead for the GOP as one would expect but it is still Idaho.)

KS (Brownback isn’t exactly loved by the entire KS GOP but I can’t see anything but a Holland defeat here.)

SC (Sheheen may shock people but again, red state in a terrible year for Dems means Governor Haley.)

SD (Daugaaurd is popular and once again, red state, GOP year.)

TN (McWherter is not his dad and the polls are ugly.)

UT (Herbert has anemic poll leads but it is Utah!)

Projection

SENATE – GOP +5

GOVERNORS – GOP +5

I’m going to do one of these on the first Monday of every month between now and election day. Time to do away with the tossup cop out and get off the fence!

Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-15 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

SENATE

Dem Tilt

IL

NV

WI

CA

WA

Rep Tilt

PA

CO

KY

OH

MO

NH

Dem Lean

FL*

Rep Lean

NC

IN

Dem Favored

CT

WV

Rep Favored

LA

AR

DE

This I like.

Specter 49 (44)

Toomey 42 (44)

Toomey 39 (40)

Sestak 36 (35)

Specter 53 (53)

Sestak 29 (30)

Specter has positive job approval, 48-45. Though voters don’t believe he deserves to be re-elected by a 52-38 margin.

“Sen. Arlen Specter seems to be having a good winter politically. He is back ahead of Republican Pat Toomey after having been essentially tied with him since last summer, and there remains no evidence that his primary challenger, Congressman Joe Sestak, has made much progress as we get within three months of the May primary,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Specter’s lead over Toomey is built upon a 52 – 36 percent margin among women voters, while Toomey has a small 49 – 46 percent lead among men, an indication that the gender gap remains alive and well.”

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128…

More evidence of things turning a little. First Strickland, now Specter. I wonder if we actually end up seeing Scott Brown’s win in Massachusetts as having been the GOP high point this cycle rather than the harbinging of more doom and gloom.

http://www.publicpolicypolling…

Some of the others poll better but even Beebe loses to Boozman.

Lincoln 33

Boozman 56

Lincoln 35

Baker 50

Ross 37

Boozman 48

Ross 39

Baker 39

Halter 30

Boozman 53

Halter 34

Baker 45

Clark 36

Boozman 51

Clark 39

Baker 45

Beebe 43

Boozman 44

Beebe 46

Baker 38

For all you purists Lincoln’s problems are certainly not because she isn’t liberal enough. A majority of Arkansas voters say she is too liberal.

The only silver lining is that these other Dems all have high “don’t knows” in terms of favorability but then so do both Boozman and Baker. I think we have to face facts – the state wants a Republican senator.