66 seats previously held by Democrats in the House of Representatives fell to the Republicans. Open seats accounted for 14 losses and incumbents accounted for 52.
LA-03 (Open – Melancon)
TN-06 (Open – Gordon)
NY-29 (Open – Massa)
AR-02 (Open – Snyder)
KS-03 (Open – Moore)
IN-08 (Open – Ellsworth)
TN-08 (Open – Tanner)
WI-07 (Open – Obey)
PA-07 (Open – Sestak)
AR-01 (Open – Berry)
MI-01 (Open – Stupak)
WA-03 (Open – Baird)
NH-02 (Open – Hodes)
WV-01 (Open – Mollohan)
PA-03 (Dahlkemper)
FL-08 (Grayson)
OH-01 (Driehaus)
OH-15 (Kilroy)
TX-17 (Edwards)
FL-24 (Kosmas)
IL-11 (Halvorson)
CO-04 (Markey)
FL-02 (Boyd)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
WI-08 (Kagen)
GA-08 (Marshall)
NV-03 (Titus)
MD-01 (Kratovil)
PA-11 (Kanjorski)
VA-05 (Perriello)
OH-16 (Boccieri)
VA-02 (Nye)
SC-05 (Spratt)
MS-01 (Childers)
AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)
NM-03 (Teague)
ND-AL (Pomeroy)
AZ-05 (Mitchell)
SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin)
IL-14 (Foster)
PA-10 (Carney)
NY-19 (Hall)
IL-17 (Hare)
CO-03 (Salazar)
PA-08 (Murphy)
IN-09 (Hill)
AL-02 (Bright)
ID-01 (Minnick)
NJ-03 (Adler)
FL-22 (Klein)
TX-23 (Rodriguez)
OH-18 (Space)
TN-04 (Davis)
MO-04 (Skelton)
MI-07 (Schauer)
NY-20 (Murphy)
VA-09 (Boucher)
OH-06 (Wilson)
MS-04 (Taylor)
NY-24 (Arcuri)
IL-08 (Bean)
NC-02 (Etheridge)
MN-08 (Oberstar)
TX-27 (Ortiz)
NY-25 (Maffei)
NY-13 (McMahon)
Now, what interested me was where these people lost and indeed, where did people survive?
Seats lost with a GOP PVI (52):
TX-17 R+20
MS-04 R+20
ID-01 R+18
AL-02 R+16
MS-01 R+14
MO-04 R+14
MD-01 R+13
TN-06 R+13
TN-04 R+13
LA-03 R+12
VA-09 R+11
GA-08 R+10
ND-AL R+10
SD-AL R+9
WV-01 R+9
PA-10 R+8
AR-01 R+8
IN-08 R+8
SC-05 R+7
OH-18 R+7
CO-04 R+6
NM-02 R+6
AZ-01 R+6
IN-09 R+6
FL-02 R+6
TN-08 R+6
VA-05 R+5
VA-02 R+5
C0-03 R+5
AZ-05 R+5
AR-02 R+5
NY-29 R+5
OH-16 R+4
NY-13 R+4
TX-23 R+4
FL-24 R+4
NY-19 R+3
PA-03 R+3
KS-03 R+3
MI-01 R+3
NY-20 R+2
NY-24 R+2
MI-07 R+2
FL-08 R+2
TX-27 R+2
NC-02 R+2
OH-06 R+2
IL-14 R+1
NJ-03 R+1
IL-11 R+1
IL-08 R+1
NH-01 R+0
In these hyper-partisan times even multi-term incumbents couldn’t hold on in the terrible environment despite having done so easily in the past.
Seats retained with a GOP PVI (17):
UT-02 R+15 (Matheson)
OK-02 R+14 (Boren)
KY-06 R+9 (Chandler)
AR-04 R+7 (Ross)
NC-11 R+6 (Shuler)
PA-04 R+6 (Altmire)
PA-17 R+6 (Holden)
WV-03 R+6 (Rahall)
MN-07 R+5 (Peterson)
NC-07 R+5 (McIntyre)
AZ-08 R+4 (Giffords)
IN-02 R+2 (Donnelly)
NC-08 R+2 (Kissell)
CA-11 R+1 (McNerney)
MN-01 R+1 (Walz)
NY-23 R+1 (Owens)
PA-12 R+1 (Critz)
These select few deserve kudos for surving.
Seats lost with a Dem PVI (14):
WA-03 D+0
WI-08 D+0
OH-01 D+1
OH-15 D+1
FL-22 D+1
NV-03 D+2
NH-02 D+3
PA-07 D+3
WI-07 D+3
NY-25 D+3
PA-08 D+3
IL-17 D+3
MN-08 D+3
PA-11 D+4
Proof positive that the wave was not confined to traditional Republican territory.
Republican seats with a Dem PVI (20):
WA-03 D+0
WI-08 D+0
FL-22 D+1
NJ-02 D+1
OH-01 D+1
OH-12 D+1
OH-15 D+1
NV-03 D+2
PA-08 D+2
PA-15 D+2
IL-17 D+3
MN-08 D+3
NH-02 D+3
NY-25 D+3
PA-07 D+3
WA-08 D+3
WI-07 D+3
PA-06 D+4
PA-11 D+4
IL-10 D+6
Obviously redistricting makes this more difficult but there are some juicy targets here for Dems to go on the offense.
Seats lost that voted for Obama (30):
VA-02
TX-23
KS-03
NY-19
MI-01
NY-20
FL-08
MI-07
NY-24
NC-02
TX-27
WI-08
IL-14
IL-11
IL-08
NJ-03
NH-01
WA-03
OH-15
FL-22
OH-01
NV-03
PA-08
WI-07
MN-08
NY-25
NH-02
IL-17
PA-07
PA-11
Obama won big so it was to be expected that some of these districts would slip back.
Seats lost by incumbents that voted for Kerry (6):
NY-25
IL-17
PA-08
FL-22
MN-08
PA-11
The most disappointing group of losses in my mind.