66 seats previously held by Democrats in the House of Representatives fell to the Republicans. Open seats accounted for 14 losses and incumbents accounted for 52.
LA-03 (Open – Melancon)
TN-06 (Open – Gordon)
NY-29 (Open – Massa)
AR-02 (Open – Snyder)
KS-03 (Open – Moore)
IN-08 (Open – Ellsworth)
TN-08 (Open – Tanner)
WI-07 (Open – Obey)
PA-07 (Open – Sestak)
AR-01 (Open – Berry)
MI-01 (Open – Stupak)
WA-03 (Open – Baird)
NH-02 (Open – Hodes)
WV-01 (Open – Mollohan)
PA-03 (Dahlkemper)
FL-08 (Grayson)
OH-01 (Driehaus)
OH-15 (Kilroy)
TX-17 (Edwards)
FL-24 (Kosmas)
IL-11 (Halvorson)
CO-04 (Markey)
FL-02 (Boyd)
NH-01 (Shea-Porter)
WI-08 (Kagen)
GA-08 (Marshall)
NV-03 (Titus)
MD-01 (Kratovil)
PA-11 (Kanjorski)
VA-05 (Perriello)
OH-16 (Boccieri)
VA-02 (Nye)
SC-05 (Spratt)
MS-01 (Childers)
AZ-01 (Kirkpatrick)
NM-03 (Teague)
ND-AL (Pomeroy)
AZ-05 (Mitchell)
SD-AL (Herseth Sandlin)
IL-14 (Foster)
PA-10 (Carney)
NY-19 (Hall)
IL-17 (Hare)
CO-03 (Salazar)
PA-08 (Murphy)
IN-09 (Hill)
AL-02 (Bright)
ID-01 (Minnick)
NJ-03 (Adler)
FL-22 (Klein)
TX-23 (Rodriguez)
OH-18 (Space)
TN-04 (Davis)
MO-04 (Skelton)
MI-07 (Schauer)
NY-20 (Murphy)
VA-09 (Boucher)
OH-06 (Wilson)
MS-04 (Taylor)
NY-24 (Arcuri)
IL-08 (Bean)
NC-02 (Etheridge)
MN-08 (Oberstar)
TX-27 (Ortiz)
NY-25 (Maffei)
NY-13 (McMahon)
Now, what interested me was where these people lost and indeed, where did people survive?
Seats lost with a GOP PVI (52):
TX-17 R+20
MS-04 R+20
ID-01 R+18
AL-02 R+16
MS-01 R+14
MO-04 R+14
MD-01 R+13
TN-06 R+13
TN-04 R+13
LA-03 R+12
VA-09 R+11
GA-08 R+10
ND-AL R+10
SD-AL R+9
WV-01 R+9
PA-10 R+8
AR-01 R+8
IN-08 R+8
SC-05 R+7
OH-18 R+7
CO-04 R+6
NM-02 R+6
AZ-01 R+6
IN-09 R+6
FL-02 R+6
TN-08 R+6
VA-05 R+5
VA-02 R+5
C0-03 R+5
AZ-05 R+5
AR-02 R+5
NY-29 R+5
OH-16 R+4
NY-13 R+4
TX-23 R+4
FL-24 R+4
NY-19 R+3
PA-03 R+3
KS-03 R+3
MI-01 R+3
NY-20 R+2
NY-24 R+2
MI-07 R+2
FL-08 R+2
TX-27 R+2
NC-02 R+2
OH-06 R+2
IL-14 R+1
NJ-03 R+1
IL-11 R+1
IL-08 R+1
NH-01 R+0
In these hyper-partisan times even multi-term incumbents couldn’t hold on in the terrible environment despite having done so easily in the past.
Seats retained with a GOP PVI (17):
UT-02 R+15 (Matheson)
OK-02 R+14 (Boren)
KY-06 R+9 (Chandler)
AR-04 R+7 (Ross)
NC-11 R+6 (Shuler)
PA-04 R+6 (Altmire)
PA-17 R+6 (Holden)
WV-03 R+6 (Rahall)
MN-07 R+5 (Peterson)
NC-07 R+5 (McIntyre)
AZ-08 R+4 (Giffords)
IN-02 R+2 (Donnelly)
NC-08 R+2 (Kissell)
CA-11 R+1 (McNerney)
MN-01 R+1 (Walz)
NY-23 R+1 (Owens)
PA-12 R+1 (Critz)
These select few deserve kudos for surving.
Seats lost with a Dem PVI (14):
WA-03 D+0
WI-08 D+0
OH-01 D+1
OH-15 D+1
FL-22 D+1
NV-03 D+2
NH-02 D+3
PA-07 D+3
WI-07 D+3
NY-25 D+3
PA-08 D+3
IL-17 D+3
MN-08 D+3
PA-11 D+4
Proof positive that the wave was not confined to traditional Republican territory.
Republican seats with a Dem PVI (20):
WA-03 D+0
WI-08 D+0
FL-22 D+1
NJ-02 D+1
OH-01 D+1
OH-12 D+1
OH-15 D+1
NV-03 D+2
PA-08 D+2
PA-15 D+2
IL-17 D+3
MN-08 D+3
NH-02 D+3
NY-25 D+3
PA-07 D+3
WA-08 D+3
WI-07 D+3
PA-06 D+4
PA-11 D+4
IL-10 D+6
Obviously redistricting makes this more difficult but there are some juicy targets here for Dems to go on the offense.
Seats lost that voted for Obama (30):
VA-02
TX-23
KS-03
NY-19
MI-01
NY-20
FL-08
MI-07
NY-24
NC-02
TX-27
WI-08
IL-14
IL-11
IL-08
NJ-03
NH-01
WA-03
OH-15
FL-22
OH-01
NV-03
PA-08
WI-07
MN-08
NY-25
NH-02
IL-17
PA-07
PA-11
Obama won big so it was to be expected that some of these districts would slip back.
Seats lost by incumbents that voted for Kerry (6):
NY-25
IL-17
PA-08
FL-22
MN-08
PA-11
The most disappointing group of losses in my mind.
NH-02, PA-07 and WI-07 but since those were open and such races are usually easier to win they deserve a pass.
there are a lot of potential pick ups next cycle lol
for these lists. The Kerry Districts are heartbreaking.
Most of the districts that had “seats lost with a Democratic PVI” are actually traditionally Republican territory. Most of them were held by the Republicans for a long time (well, not NV-03, since that’s a pretty new seat) before Democrats took them in 2006 or 2008.
I think of where we are now is about where we were in 2002-2004, except with several fewer southern conservadems. It was kinda disheartening to see all that hard work wiped out.
Here’s my spreadsheet: https://spreadsheets.google.co… . You can help out too!
Even though this was only supposed to cover I’m going to include all districts whose races that were competitive in 2006, in 2008, or in 2010. You should help populate this list with data; perhaps one day we’ll end up with a list like this for the ENTIRE nation.
This might give us a clue about who we want coming back to run again, or such.
Also, re opening post: You put NY-03 instead of NY-13.