GOPVOTER made a query about this data earlier and though this diary is intended for him I’m sure it proves to be a useful resource for everyone here at SSP.
We all know turnout from Republicans will be up and Democrats down from two years ago, the question is how much? Personally, I’ve been working under the assumption, based on the fact the change in New Jersey (competitive right until the end last November, unlike Virginia) was a six-point movement in favor of the GOP, of adding three to the Republican number and taking three from the Democratic number. Obviously it won’t be uniform like that but I think it a decent average by which to view the likely electorate this fall.
From left to right, Democrats, Republicans, Independents.
2004
Alabama
34-48-18
Alaska
19-41-40
Arizona
30-44-26
Arkansas
41-31-29
California
39-33-27
Colorado
29-38-33
Connecticut
37-30-33
Delaware
41-32-26
Florida
37-41-23
Georgia
34-42-24
Hawaii
40-24-36
Idaho
22-50-27
Illinois
39-34-27
Indiana
32-46-22
Iowa
34-36-30
Kansas
27-50-23
Kentucky
44-40-17
Louisiana
42-40-18
Maine
31-30-38
Maryland
48-30-22
Massachusetts
39-16-44
Michigan
39-34-27
Minnesota
38-35-27
Mississippi
38-47-15
Missouri
35-36-29
Montana
32-39-29
Nebraska
24-53-22
Nevada
35-39-26
New Hampshire
25-32-44
New Jersey
39-31-30
New Mexico
40-33-27
New York
45-29-26
North Carolina
39-40-21
North Dakota
27-41-32
Ohio
35-40-25
Oklahoma
40-43-16
Oregon
32-34-34
Pennsylvania
41-39-20
Rhode Island
39-16-45
South Carolina
33-44-23
South Dakota
32-47-21
Tennessee
32-40-28
Texas
32-43-24
Utah
19-58-24
Vermont
31-27-41
Virginia
35-39-26
Washington
36-32-33
West Virginia
50-32-18
Wisconsin
35-38-27
Wyoming
25-53-22
2008
Alabama
37-45-18
Alaska
20-37-43
Arizona
32-39-30
Arkansas
36-32-31
California
42-30-28
Colorado
30-31-39
Connecticut
43-27-31
Delaware
48-31-21
Florida
37-34-29
Georgia
38-35-28
Hawaii
45-20-34
Idaho
24-48-28
Illinois
47-28-26
Indiana
36-41-24
Iowa
34-33-33
Kansas
26-49-25
Kentucky
47-38-15
Louisiana
42-38-21
Maine
35-26-39
Maryland
51-28-21
Massachusetts
43-17-40
Michigan
41-29-29
Minnesota
40-36-25
Mississippi
40-45-15
Missouri
40-34-26
Montana
33-33-35
Nebraska
29-48-22
Nevada
38-30-32
New Hampshire
29-27-45
New Jersey
44-28-28
New Mexico
44-28-28
New York
50-26-25
North Carolina
42-31-27
North Dakota
28-38-33
Ohio
39-31-30
Oklahoma
41-44-14
Oregon
36-27-37
Pennsylvania
44-37-18
Rhode Island
42-16-42
South Carolina
38-41-20
South Dakota
36-42-22
Tennessee
32-33-35
Texas
33-34-33
Utah
21-50-29
Vermont
37-23-39
Virginia
39-33-27
Washington
36-26-39
West Virginia
48-34-19
Wisconsin
39-33-29
Wyoming
26-52-22