Party ID Data per 2004/2008 Exit Polls

GOPVOTER made a query about this data earlier and though this diary is intended for him I’m sure it proves to be a useful resource for everyone here at SSP.

We all know turnout from Republicans will be up and Democrats down from two years ago, the question is how much? Personally, I’ve been working under the assumption, based on the fact the change in New Jersey (competitive right until the end last November, unlike Virginia) was a six-point movement in favor of the GOP, of adding three to the Republican number and taking three from the Democratic number. Obviously it won’t be uniform like that but I think it a decent average by which to view the likely electorate this fall.

From left to right, Democrats, Republicans, Independents.

2004

Alabama

34-48-18

Alaska

19-41-40

Arizona

30-44-26

Arkansas

41-31-29

California

39-33-27

Colorado

29-38-33

Connecticut

37-30-33

Delaware

41-32-26

Florida

37-41-23

Georgia

34-42-24

Hawaii

40-24-36

Idaho

22-50-27

Illinois

39-34-27

Indiana

32-46-22

Iowa

34-36-30

Kansas

27-50-23

Kentucky

44-40-17

Louisiana

42-40-18

Maine

31-30-38

Maryland

48-30-22

Massachusetts

39-16-44

Michigan

39-34-27

Minnesota

38-35-27

Mississippi

38-47-15

Missouri

35-36-29

Montana

32-39-29

Nebraska

24-53-22

Nevada

35-39-26

New Hampshire

25-32-44

New Jersey

39-31-30

New Mexico

40-33-27

New York

45-29-26

North Carolina

39-40-21

North Dakota

27-41-32

Ohio

35-40-25

Oklahoma

40-43-16

Oregon

32-34-34

Pennsylvania

41-39-20

Rhode Island

39-16-45

South Carolina

33-44-23

South Dakota

32-47-21

Tennessee

32-40-28

Texas

32-43-24

Utah

19-58-24

Vermont

31-27-41

Virginia

35-39-26

Washington

36-32-33

West Virginia

50-32-18

Wisconsin

35-38-27

Wyoming

25-53-22

2008

Alabama

37-45-18

Alaska

20-37-43

Arizona

32-39-30

Arkansas

36-32-31

California

42-30-28

Colorado

30-31-39

Connecticut

43-27-31

Delaware

48-31-21

Florida

37-34-29

Georgia

38-35-28

Hawaii

45-20-34

Idaho

24-48-28

Illinois

47-28-26

Indiana

36-41-24

Iowa

34-33-33

Kansas

26-49-25

Kentucky

47-38-15

Louisiana

42-38-21

Maine

35-26-39

Maryland

51-28-21

Massachusetts

43-17-40

Michigan

41-29-29

Minnesota

40-36-25

Mississippi

40-45-15

Missouri

40-34-26

Montana

33-33-35

Nebraska

29-48-22

Nevada

38-30-32

New Hampshire

29-27-45

New Jersey

44-28-28

New Mexico

44-28-28

New York

50-26-25

North Carolina

42-31-27

North Dakota

28-38-33

Ohio

39-31-30

Oklahoma

41-44-14

Oregon

36-27-37

Pennsylvania

44-37-18

Rhode Island

42-16-42

South Carolina

38-41-20

South Dakota

36-42-22

Tennessee

32-33-35

Texas

33-34-33

Utah

21-50-29

Vermont

37-23-39

Virginia

39-33-27

Washington

36-26-39

West Virginia

48-34-19

Wisconsin

39-33-29

Wyoming

26-52-22

2004 to 2006 Partisan ID Breakdown by VNS exit poll

Partisan ID is a clear sign of how a party is doing because those who Identify with a party vote for its candidates at extremely high rates and do so in almost all races.  These numbers can be a window into the future. If nothing else they show either improvement or declines in states  that is valuable to know. The following is VNS data by State and  Party ID for 06 and 04, followed by a quick comment on what the data could mean for 08

Arizona
06
Democrat 32
Republican 41
Independent 27

04
Democrat 30
Republican 44
Independent 26

Quick Take
Five point trimming is not nothing, Pederson won Independents by 9. Maybe a Target State?

California
Party ID
06
Democrat 41
Republican 35
Independent 25

Democrat 39
Republican 33
Independent 25

Quick Take :Partisan vote more in an off Year. Nothing to see here.  California Blue

Connecticut
06
Democrat 38
Republican 26
Independent  36

04
Democrat 37
Republican 30
Independent 33

Quick Take
Republican id falls, Indies not Dems mostly gain.  CT electorate votes for Team Blue

Florida
06
Democrat 36
Republican 39
Independent 25

04
Democrat 37
Republican 41
Independent 23

Quick Take, No real change, Florida remains swing of all swing states, like movement in 8th and 13th  to Dems , worry about why Mahoney got  only 49%  The Battle Never stops in Florida.

Hawaii
06
Democrat  40
Republican 23
Independent 37%

04
Democrat 40
Republican 24
Independent 36

Quick Take. Yawn. Dems win Hawaii

Illinois
06
Democrat 46
Republican 31
Independent 23

04
Democrat 39
Republican 34
Independent 27

Quick Note
Boy did Dems destroy and fast. Those are comically bad numbers for the GOP. Wished we had spent more money on Seals.  08 in bag.

Maine 
06
Democrat 37
Republican 29
Independent 34

04
Democrat 31
Republican 30
Independent  38

Quick Take
As goes Maine so goes the nation, hard to imagine it even makes the target list in the next election.

Maryland
06
Democrat 50
Republican 31
Independent  19

04
Democrat 41
Republican 32
Independent 26

Quick Take,
No wonder Erlich went down. That high turnout in the primary was a great sign. Great Time to be a Maryland Democrat. So yes we in it in 08
Massachusetts
06
Democrat 42
Republican 19
Independent 39

04
Democrat 39
Republican 16
Independent 44

Quick Take
More Partisans vote in off years. Republicans improved to 19% and  in process ended up with 35%  in the Governor’s race as their high point in any statewide office  and 5 our of 40 State Senate Seats .  I am not sure there is a more dead major party anywhere in the country.  Lets hope Mitt Romney can do for The National Party what he did for the State Party. Dems Win in 08.

Michigan
06
Democrat 40
Republican 33
Independent 27

04
Democrat 39
Republican 34
Independent 27

Quick Take
Two point improvement isn’t nothing. Indies still key, the dueling 56’s out of Stabenow and Granholm, after all the hang wringing [ and  late million bucks from the NRSC] Make me feel very good about Michigan going into 08.
Minnesota
06
Democrat 40
Republican 36
Independent 24

04
Democrat 38
Republican 35
Independent 27

Quick Take
Partisan Vote more in off year. Dems gain a point of ID which is nice.  The Senate Race and Walz and almost the entire under ticket were nicer.  We should be ok in Minnesota but it is clearly still a close state, Senate Race aside.

Missouri  06
Democrat 37
Republican 39
Independent 25

Democrat 35
Republican 36
Independent  29

Quick Take
Indies save day  in Senate Race. Party ID slight for Republicans. Claire won by enough.  with unpopular Governor Blunt to at least put it on target list at outset.

Montana
06
Democrat 32
Republican 39
Independent 29

04
Democrat 32
Republican 39
Independent 29

Quick Take
No Movement in Partisan ID despite Beloved Governor, he won’t be able to carry Dem Pres Candidate. Montana is a Red State at least another Cycle. Tester is awesome.

Nebraska
06
Democrat 27
Republican 50
Independent 23

04
Democrat 24
Republican 53
Independent 22

Quick Take
Great Improvement though clearly not enough to change much.  Theses things take time.  Nebraska for whoever the Republicans nominate
Nevada
06
Democrat 33
Republican 40
Independent 27

04
Democrat 35
Republican 39
Independent 26

Quick Take
Rare back sliding in critical battle ground state, also explains high profile loses, including two house seats and governorship. Why are Colorado-Arizona, doing well while Nevada struggles? Still has to be a pick off target for 08.

New Jersey
06
Democrat 41
Republican 28
Independent 31

04
Democrat 39
Republican 31
Independent 30

Quick Take
Nice Five point bump, sealed deal in Senate race.  Dem Partisans also extremely loyal to Dem nominee,allows for slight loss with Indies. Do they really want to try to pick up a Dem held Senate  Seat in New Jersey?  Win in 08

New Mexico
06
Democrat  41
Republican 32
Independent 27%

04
Democrat 40
Republican 33
Independent 27

Quick Take
Slight Dem increase encouraging,  given extreme close nature of last two Presidential Elections there.  Senate Race also interesting.
New York
06
Democrat 47
Republican 25
Independent 27

04
Democrat 45
Republican 29
Independent 26

Quick Note
Only real news is the NY Republicans are not quite as dead as Massachusetts
Republicans Dems win Presidential vote here.

North Dakota
06
Democrat 29
Republican 38
Independent 33

04
Democrat 27
Republican 41%
Independent 32

Quick Take
Improvement is good, hard to see races it will matter in near future, given Dems already hold whole Congressional Delegation.  Red in 08

Ohio
06
Democrat 40
Republican 37
Independent  23

04
Democrat 35
Republican 40
Independent 25

Quick Take
Awesome  Numbers, Given Kerry Win with Ohio Indies, means Dems have inside track at 08 Electoral College votes.

Pennsylvania
06
Democrat 43
Republican 38
Independent 19

04
Democrat 41
Republican 39
Independent 20

Quick Take
Very good encouraging Numbers, will Republicans want to Contest in Pennsylvania?  Can Rendell-Casey be stopped?  Does Jim Gerlach have a way to riggle out again, tune in next cycle for, As Pennsylvania turns.

Rhode Island
06
Democrat 38
Republican 18
Independent 44

04
Democrat 39
Republican 16
Independent 45

Quick Take
Probably just noise, in the Party ID numbers, and a party at 18 isn’t going to scary me, though it may have saved their Republican Governor. Rhode Island is blue in 08

Tennessee
06
Democrat 34
Republican 38
Independent 28

04
Democrat 32
Republican 40
Independent 28

Quick Take
Shame it didn’t push Ford across finishing line, but those numbers with our Governor’s 69 means their may still be hope for Tennessee

Texas
06
Democrat 31
Republican 41
Independent 28

Democrat 32
Republican 43
Independent 24

Quick Take
Doesn’t Change much. Texas is Red State. Is Senator Croyn as hated as Perry, can we get only challenger please.

Utah
06
Democrat 20
Republican 56
Independent 24

04
Democrat 19
Republican 58
Independent 24

Quick Take
It is Utah. 

Vermont
06
Democrat 29
Republican 27
Independent 44

04
Democrat 31
Republican 27
Independent  41

Quick Take
Vermont’s Indies voted 74% for Bernie Sanders and 67% for John Kerry, so honestly Vermont loves us. Dems in 08

Virginia
06 
Democrat  36
Republican  39
Independent  26

04
Democrat 35
Republican 39
Independent  26

Quick Take
No real movement. Virginia Independents were all decisive in 04 and 06 races, do they hold key to Presidency?  Too tempting a target not to try.
Washington
06
Democrat 39
Republican 29
Independent 32

04
Democrat 36
Republican 32
Independent 33

Quick Take
Maybe Washington will find its way off targets list now, look its George Nethercutt, I am scared.

West Virginia
06
Democrat  51
Republican 32
Independent 16

04
Democrat 50
Republican 32
Independent 18

Quick Take
No real change, will Dems return home  30% voted for Bush in 04. Probably Red in 08 but needs to be watched.

Wisconsin
06
Democrat 39
Republican 34
Independent 27

04
Democrat 35
Republican 38
Independent  27

Quick Take
Second only in greatness to Ohio, these are great numbers that give Dems  a great shot at Wisconsin in 08

Wyoming
06
Democrat 27
Republican 56
Independent 17

04
Democrat 25
Republican 53
Independent 22

Quick Take
How does this state have a Dem Governor and almost elect a Democrat to Congress. This proves not even Utah should be over looked.

Four States I wish I had data for
Colorado Arkansas New Hampshire and Iowa