Partisan ID is a clear sign of how a party is doing because those who Identify with a party vote for its candidates at extremely high rates and do so in almost all races. These numbers can be a window into the future. If nothing else they show either improvement or declines in states that is valuable to know. The following is VNS data by State and Party ID for 06 and 04, followed by a quick comment on what the data could mean for 08
Arizona
06
Democrat 32
Republican 41
Independent 27
04
Democrat 30
Republican 44
Independent 26
Quick Take
Five point trimming is not nothing, Pederson won Independents by 9. Maybe a Target State?
California
Party ID
06
Democrat 41
Republican 35
Independent 25
Democrat 39
Republican 33
Independent 25
Quick Take :Partisan vote more in an off Year. Nothing to see here. California Blue
Connecticut
06
Democrat 38
Republican 26
Independent 36
04
Democrat 37
Republican 30
Independent 33
Quick Take
Republican id falls, Indies not Dems mostly gain. CT electorate votes for Team Blue
Florida
06
Democrat 36
Republican 39
Independent 25
04
Democrat 37
Republican 41
Independent 23
Quick Take, No real change, Florida remains swing of all swing states, like movement in 8th and 13th to Dems , worry about why Mahoney got only 49% The Battle Never stops in Florida.
Hawaii
06
Democrat 40
Republican 23
Independent 37%
04
Democrat 40
Republican 24
Independent 36
Quick Take. Yawn. Dems win Hawaii
Illinois
06
Democrat 46
Republican 31
Independent 23
04
Democrat 39
Republican 34
Independent 27
Quick Note
Boy did Dems destroy and fast. Those are comically bad numbers for the GOP. Wished we had spent more money on Seals. 08 in bag.
Maine
06
Democrat 37
Republican 29
Independent 34
04
Democrat 31
Republican 30
Independent 38
Quick Take
As goes Maine so goes the nation, hard to imagine it even makes the target list in the next election.
Maryland
06
Democrat 50
Republican 31
Independent 19
04
Democrat 41
Republican 32
Independent 26
Quick Take,
No wonder Erlich went down. That high turnout in the primary was a great sign. Great Time to be a Maryland Democrat. So yes we in it in 08
Massachusetts
06
Democrat 42
Republican 19
Independent 39
04
Democrat 39
Republican 16
Independent 44
Quick Take
More Partisans vote in off years. Republicans improved to 19% and in process ended up with 35% in the Governor’s race as their high point in any statewide office and 5 our of 40 State Senate Seats . I am not sure there is a more dead major party anywhere in the country. Lets hope Mitt Romney can do for The National Party what he did for the State Party. Dems Win in 08.
Michigan
06
Democrat 40
Republican 33
Independent 27
04
Democrat 39
Republican 34
Independent 27
Quick Take
Two point improvement isn’t nothing. Indies still key, the dueling 56’s out of Stabenow and Granholm, after all the hang wringing [ and late million bucks from the NRSC] Make me feel very good about Michigan going into 08.
Minnesota
06
Democrat 40
Republican 36
Independent 24
04
Democrat 38
Republican 35
Independent 27
Quick Take
Partisan Vote more in off year. Dems gain a point of ID which is nice. The Senate Race and Walz and almost the entire under ticket were nicer. We should be ok in Minnesota but it is clearly still a close state, Senate Race aside.
Missouri 06
Democrat 37
Republican 39
Independent 25
Democrat 35
Republican 36
Independent 29
Quick Take
Indies save day in Senate Race. Party ID slight for Republicans. Claire won by enough. with unpopular Governor Blunt to at least put it on target list at outset.
Montana
06
Democrat 32
Republican 39
Independent 29
04
Democrat 32
Republican 39
Independent 29
Quick Take
No Movement in Partisan ID despite Beloved Governor, he won’t be able to carry Dem Pres Candidate. Montana is a Red State at least another Cycle. Tester is awesome.
Nebraska
06
Democrat 27
Republican 50
Independent 23
04
Democrat 24
Republican 53
Independent 22
Quick Take
Great Improvement though clearly not enough to change much. Theses things take time. Nebraska for whoever the Republicans nominate
Nevada
06
Democrat 33
Republican 40
Independent 27
04
Democrat 35
Republican 39
Independent 26
Quick Take
Rare back sliding in critical battle ground state, also explains high profile loses, including two house seats and governorship. Why are Colorado-Arizona, doing well while Nevada struggles? Still has to be a pick off target for 08.
New Jersey
06
Democrat 41
Republican 28
Independent 31
04
Democrat 39
Republican 31
Independent 30
Quick Take
Nice Five point bump, sealed deal in Senate race. Dem Partisans also extremely loyal to Dem nominee,allows for slight loss with Indies. Do they really want to try to pick up a Dem held Senate Seat in New Jersey? Win in 08
New Mexico
06
Democrat 41
Republican 32
Independent 27%
04
Democrat 40
Republican 33
Independent 27
Quick Take
Slight Dem increase encouraging, given extreme close nature of last two Presidential Elections there. Senate Race also interesting.
New York
06
Democrat 47
Republican 25
Independent 27
04
Democrat 45
Republican 29
Independent 26
Quick Note
Only real news is the NY Republicans are not quite as dead as Massachusetts
Republicans Dems win Presidential vote here.
North Dakota
06
Democrat 29
Republican 38
Independent 33
04
Democrat 27
Republican 41%
Independent 32
Quick Take
Improvement is good, hard to see races it will matter in near future, given Dems already hold whole Congressional Delegation. Red in 08
Ohio
06
Democrat 40
Republican 37
Independent 23
04
Democrat 35
Republican 40
Independent 25
Quick Take
Awesome Numbers, Given Kerry Win with Ohio Indies, means Dems have inside track at 08 Electoral College votes.
Pennsylvania
06
Democrat 43
Republican 38
Independent 19
04
Democrat 41
Republican 39
Independent 20
Quick Take
Very good encouraging Numbers, will Republicans want to Contest in Pennsylvania? Can Rendell-Casey be stopped? Does Jim Gerlach have a way to riggle out again, tune in next cycle for, As Pennsylvania turns.
Rhode Island
06
Democrat 38
Republican 18
Independent 44
04
Democrat 39
Republican 16
Independent 45
Quick Take
Probably just noise, in the Party ID numbers, and a party at 18 isn’t going to scary me, though it may have saved their Republican Governor. Rhode Island is blue in 08
Tennessee
06
Democrat 34
Republican 38
Independent 28
04
Democrat 32
Republican 40
Independent 28
Quick Take
Shame it didn’t push Ford across finishing line, but those numbers with our Governor’s 69 means their may still be hope for Tennessee
Texas
06
Democrat 31
Republican 41
Independent 28
Democrat 32
Republican 43
Independent 24
Quick Take
Doesn’t Change much. Texas is Red State. Is Senator Croyn as hated as Perry, can we get only challenger please.
Utah
06
Democrat 20
Republican 56
Independent 24
04
Democrat 19
Republican 58
Independent 24
Quick Take
It is Utah.
Vermont
06
Democrat 29
Republican 27
Independent 44
04
Democrat 31
Republican 27
Independent 41
Quick Take
Vermont’s Indies voted 74% for Bernie Sanders and 67% for John Kerry, so honestly Vermont loves us. Dems in 08
Virginia
06
Democrat 36
Republican 39
Independent 26
04
Democrat 35
Republican 39
Independent 26
Quick Take
No real movement. Virginia Independents were all decisive in 04 and 06 races, do they hold key to Presidency? Too tempting a target not to try.
Washington
06
Democrat 39
Republican 29
Independent 32
04
Democrat 36
Republican 32
Independent 33
Quick Take
Maybe Washington will find its way off targets list now, look its George Nethercutt, I am scared.
West Virginia
06
Democrat 51
Republican 32
Independent 16
04
Democrat 50
Republican 32
Independent 18
Quick Take
No real change, will Dems return home 30% voted for Bush in 04. Probably Red in 08 but needs to be watched.
Wisconsin
06
Democrat 39
Republican 34
Independent 27
04
Democrat 35
Republican 38
Independent 27
Quick Take
Second only in greatness to Ohio, these are great numbers that give Dems a great shot at Wisconsin in 08
Wyoming
06
Democrat 27
Republican 56
Independent 17
04
Democrat 25
Republican 53
Independent 22
Quick Take
How does this state have a Dem Governor and almost elect a Democrat to Congress. This proves not even Utah should be over looked.
Four States I wish I had data for
Colorado Arkansas New Hampshire and Iowa