With Obama’s announcement of his nominee to replace David Souter on the US Supreme Court next term coming very soon, it seems important to look at what, if any, political effects this decision may have. While Republicans are hoping to rev-back-up the culture wars, Obama’s appointment could also either directly or indirectly lead to a new governor or an exciting (in relative, SSP terms) special election. So let’s get right into the speculation game!
Jennifer Granholm: Governor of Michigan
Granholm’s nomination to the Supreme Court, if successful, would leave Lt. Gov. and 2010 hopeful John Cherry as Michigan’s new governor. This could both help his 2010 campaign and hurt it. It’ll help in the sense that it will allow him to introduce himself to more voters through the tons of free media being a governor grants you and allows him to create his own identity independent of the often polarizing Granholm (something he has struggled to do so far). However, given Michigan’s terrible economy and the difficult decisions he will now have to make about it (as opposed to being able to let voters place some of the blame for them on Granholm), it could completely sink him. While two years of experience should probably be a leg-up on his opponents, I guess it really depends on what the economy (and the Big Three) does.
Janet Napolitano : Homeland Security Secretary
While no longer holding elected office, Napolitano’s ascent to the court will leave a need for a new Homeland Security Secretary. Former 9/11 Commissioner & designated Indian Ambassador Tim Roemer and NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly could be her replacements, as could House Homeland Security Committee Vice-Chair Rep. Loretta Sanchez, who could give Obama cover as far as not appointing a Hispanic to the bench. A low turnout Special Election in CA-47 could be a headache, but would probably still lean fairly Democratic. Potential Democratic candidates could include State Senator Luis Correa, Santa Ana mayor Miguel Pulido, and State Assembly Member Jose Solorio. Potential Republican challengers include State Rep. Van Tran and Orange County Commissioner Janet Nguyen.
Elena Kagan: Solicitor General
While she also doesn’t hold a political office, Kagen (who by my count is most often referred to as the top front-runner with Sotomayor) will have to be replaced. While Stanford Law Professor Kathleen Sullivan may be the favorite for SG if the position were to open up, Kagan could also be replaced by any of a number of Congress Critters-Artur Davis, Brad Sherman, & Hank Johnson being among the most attractive candidates that happen to come to mind (though there are probably at least a dozen very reasonable ones to suggest). Any other ideas?
Merrick Garland, Carlos Moreno, Sonia Sotomayor, Diana Wood,: DC Circuit Court Judge, California Supreme Court Associate Justice, 2nd Circuit Court Judge, 7th Circuit Court Judge
I didn’t want to skip the other names that generally show up on Obama’s shortlist, though they probably won’t have any effect on the political playing field (at least from the horserace politics POV).
I don’t find it wise to stick solely to the rumored shortlist (though those 7 are probably the most likely nominees). Here are a few of the more likely dark horses (or at least the ones that would be interesting for these purposes).
Ken Salazar: Interior Secretary
If Salazar’s long-shot chance at the bench proves true, he will likely be succeeded at his post in the Department of Interior by a Western politician (the Interior Secretary has been a Western politician since 1989). Reps. Raúl Grijalva, Jay Inslee, & Mike Thompson would probably be among the top contenders. Possible Democratic successors to Grijalva include State Senate Minority Leader Jorge Luis Garcia, Pima County Board of Supervisors Chairman Richard Elías, and State Rep Matt Heinz. Potential successors to Inslee include Democratic State Sens. Eric Oemig & Darlene Fairley. Thompson could be succeeded by former Assemblywoman Patty Berg (who said she would run if Thompson were appointed), current Assembly-people Wes Chesbro & Mariko Yamada and Napa mayor Jill Techel(also all Democrats). In fact, the only one of these districts that could theoretically elect a Republican is AZ-07, but that’s only if the Democratic primary is divisive, overall turnout is low (especially at the University of Arizona), and Republicans nominate a strong candidate like Yuma County BOS Chair Greg Ferguson (as opposed to the White supremacist they’ve nominated in 2 of the last 3 elections).
Deval Patrick: Governor of Massachusetts
His star has really faded as far as Supreme Court speculation goes, but, as a noted FOB and with some angry that Obama’s short-list doesn’t include any African-Americans, he probably can’t be completely ruled out. If Patrick joins the court, he will be succeeded as governor by Tim Murray. Given that Patrick’s popularity is in the gutter and Republicans tend to strongly overperform their generic base in MA’s gubernatorial elections, this would give us a chance to go into the 2010 elections with a relatively fresh face. His Worcester base and strong labor support would be additional asset. However, he’d be inheriting a terrible economy; won’t all the blame just transfer to him?
So what does everybody think? Any major potential appointees or candidates that I’m missing? Any relevant dark horses I shouldn’t be ignoring?
Alan Grayson is a very experienced trial lawyer who financed his campaign from winning law suits against the federal government. He’s an obvious choice for the government’s top trial lawyer.
but I’d much prefer him in the House.
I’d really prefer one of the ladies from Stanford…intellectual heavyweights that can go toe-to-toe with Scalia and Alito.
I’m intrigued by a politician on the Court again–Since O’Connor left, none of the justices have ever held elective office, and I think that’s a nice thing to have. I think I’d like either Granholm or Napolitano on the Court–I guess I’d just be a bit nervous as to how liberal they’d be.
Nice work finding the right hook for this. I do agree, though, that someone like Katyal is most likely to become SG if Kagen is picked. (Can’t believe that guy was my criminal law professor!) But then again, Obama’s made some surprising choices before.
My thinking is that Sotomayor and Wood have the inside track on this one, so it will be one of them.
I hope Obama picks someone under 50, but Its looking like that is doubtful.