I’m not saying there aren’t plenty of 2010 candidates that need our help. (There are! Please help!) I’m just saying that helping our previous progressive winners to close their books and retire their debts could encourage other Democrats currently running to follow in more progressive footsteps, knowing we have their backs.
I’ll leave you with a few reasons to be very, very proud of Senator Al Franken’s first months as a U.S. Senator (and very, very motivated to help retire his campaign debt):
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/22-24 in parentheses):
Jeff Merkley (D): 47 (45)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 41 (40)
Other 6 (6)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Yesterday’s Rasmussen poll showing a tie in the Oregon Senate race gave the blogosphere some pause (as well it should, as this one is by no means over). Research 2000 gives us a bit of very good news, though, and their 6-point spread is more in line with Pollster’s composite of 45-41.
This poll shows a sizable chunk (6%) going to “Other,” which I assume mostly means Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow (who has polled around 7% when specifically named in SurveyUSA polls). (The crosstabs indicate that the biggest support for “Other” is coming from the Independent column, though, not from Republicans, so right-wing GOPers may be staying more loyal to Smith than I’d previously assumed.)
Another interesting bit in the crosstabs: Smith’s favorables/unfavorables are currently at 40%/47%: not as bad for him as they’ve been in Dem internals, but still not the kind of numbers that, y’know, lead to someone getting reelected.
Rasmussen (10/14, likely voters, 9/15 in parentheses):
Jeff Merkley (D): 47 (45)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 47 (46)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
There seems to be a lot of preemptive celebrating of a pickup of this seat, but Rasmussen’s newest poll indicates that Gordon Smith isn’t going to go quietly into the night. It’s a tied race, although that’s actually an improvement from last month, where Smith had a 1-pt. lead.
Rasmussen has tended to be a litle more favorable to Smith than other pollsters recently. Part of that may be that they don’t account for Constitution Party candidate Jeff Dave Brownlow, who vacuumed up 7% of the vote in SurveyUSA polls. Looks like one of the big questions, come election day, will be how many hard-right rural voters come home to Gordo (whom they tend to view as an effete RINO, although their dissatisfaction is more likely to be more from a nativist Paulist angle than a theocon angle) instead of registering the protest vote.
James wrote yesterday about the shameless bullshit GOP Sen. Gordon Smith is pulling on the airwaves. Oregon’s other senator, Dem Ron Wyden, endorsed Jeff Merkley and appears in a new ad with him. Yet Smith cut his own ad which makes it appear as though Wyden is endorsing El Gordo. Like I said, a load of crap.
Wyden, however, doesn’t find much humor in the ad. He’s particularly upset that the ad includes his signature at the end, superimposed on a photo of the two senators, and he’s asking the Smith campaign to pull the ad.
“I guess we should be flattered by all the attention,” said Josh Kardon, Wyden’s chief of staff in Oregon. “But the unauthorized use of Ron’s signature is no laughing matter. Its use will confuse voters about who Ron supports in this race, and the ad should come down.”
Another embarrassment for Smith. He previously tried to claim a faux-endorsement from Obama, which lead to an unequivocal statement from the Obama camp that our nominee supports Jeff Merkley. Nice try, bub.
It’s pretty clear who Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden supports in the Oregon Senate race between Democrat Jeff Merkley and Republican Gordon Smith. Afterall, Wyden recently cut an ad making a passionate endorsement of Merkley despite his friendship with Smith. So what does El Gordo do? He parses together some misleading clips of Wyden talking about their good working relationship and then has the gall to stamp Ron Wyden’s own signature onto his ad — as if it were an endorsement from the man himself!
Just compare the two ads:
I’ve gotta say, that may be one of the most shameless ads I’ve seen all cycle from anybody. Wyden should ask El Gordo to pull this ad off the air.
In this edition of my irregular series on Oregon political news, I discuss another set of interesting stories that have popped up. These include Sen. Wyden’s (D-OR) new ad for Merkley as well as the Bill Sizemore’s admission that he was using private foundation funds for his own purposes.
4. Debate Night in Oregon: Smith vs. Merkley tonight!
Wyden says we need Merkley in the Senate:
In a new ad released this morning, Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR), who has never before done an ad for any one of Smith’s challengers, talks about why he needs Jeff Merkley to help deliver the change Oregon wants and needs. The popular Senator is a true progressive, having stated his career as the Rep. for Oregon’s 3rd CD (currently represented by Rep. Blumenauer).
Anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore is known for many things, such as running a series of insane ballot measures every two years. However, one thing he would prefer not to be remembered for is his mis-use of funds donated to nonprofit organizations under his control, which partially led to a judgment against him several years back for racketeering. Under the terms of an injunction resulting from that lawsuit, such usage of funds was not allowed. Despite this, it was revealed that Sizemore “wrote checks from the foundation account for $660,326, almost all of it for his own benefit. Sizemore also charged another $88,176 to a foundation debit card at Wells Fargo.” Included in his purchases was a car for his wife, braces for his daughter, a time-share in Mexico and my personal favorite, 15 1-ounce gold pieces. It seems that perhaps the real reason Sizemore doesn’t like paying taxes is that the pesky government insists he follow the law.
In a report during last night’s Countdown with Keith Olbermann, Keith reported that John McCain had attended a 1993 fund-raising dinner for the Oregon Citizens Alliance (OCA), a virulently homophobic group that was behind several ballot measures in the 1990s which would have effectively mandated discrimination against the GLBT community. However, the fun doesn’t stop there as apparently, during the dinner, one of the speakers praised those who had shot abortion doctors. This was no surprise to either of Oregon’s senators, both Republicans, who themselves refused to attend the dinner. In fact, Senator Mark Hatfield, a liberal Republican (and I mean that, he would most certainly be a Democrat if he ran today) strongly urged McCain not to attend but McCain did anyways.
Debate Night in Oregon: Smith vs. Merkley tonight!
Finally, just a quick note that Gordon Smith will debate Jeff Merkley tonight from 7-8 PM Pacific (10-11 PM Eastern) on KGW (Channel 8 in Portland). The debate is also sponsored by the Oregonian and streaming video will be available at: http://www.oregonlive.com/politics/. There you can also submit questions for the debate.
SurveyUSA for Roll Call & KATU-TV (9/22-23, likely voters, 8/2-4 in parens):
Jeff Merkley (D): 44 (37)
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42 (49)
Dave Brownlow (C): 8 (7)
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±3.8%)
That’s a sharp drop for Smith, and it confirms all the recent polling we’ve seen here. Interestingly, both candidates have weak approvals: 31-42 for Smith and 30-35 for Merkley. But Merkley leads independents 45-36 and is benefitting from a top-of-the-ticket surge. Obama now beats McCain 52-41. (He led just 48-45 early last month.)
Last week, I began analyzing the state of the races out West. And ever since then, I’ve received feedback about me not including all the competitive races out her. And to all of you fretting, I say… Don’t worry!
Because we have so many opportunities to not just pick up electoral votes for Obama, but also additional House and Senate seats, I just couldn’t pack them all into one diary. So today, without further adieu, I give you Part 2 of “On Winning the West”!
OK, there’s no denying it. Colorado is one of the top swing statesthis year. Colorado is one of our best opportunities outside of New Mexico for a Western pick-up this year, but it’s also a state where the Republicans are going for broke as they’re doing everything they can to prevent us from turning the state blue. But because we have the facts, the issues, and the momentum on our side, we have a great opportunity to not just turn Colorado blue on the Presidential level, but also make the state’s Congressional Delegation bluer as well.
Mark Udall is currently a Member of Congress representing the Boulder area, and he’s the Democrat running for Senate here. Udall has a strong record of standing up for the values we believe in as well as working across the aisle to make change happen. He’s been a leader on energy and environmental issues, and he’s really the perfect fit for Coloradans on the issues they care about most. Despite a recent barrage of ugly attacks, Udall has the edge in this race. Still, our friends at the DSCC are taking the GOP threat seriously… And we should, too. As long as we have Udall’s back, we can win here.
Another great opportunity for us in Colorado lies with Betsy Markey in the state’s 4th Congressional District. This area has traditionally been more Republican-leaning, but that’s quickly changing. The incumbent anti-environment, anti-choice, anti-gay, anti-immigrant, anti-working-class Marilyn Musgrave is so extremist that she couldn’t even get 50% last time she ran for reelection. And already, Markey has taken the lead in the last indpendent poll done in the district. So far, it looks like the people here would rather see someone who’s ready to work for them like Betsy Markey rather than face another two years with Musgrave. And with the DCCC and EMILY’S List making a move here, we know this is a real race that we can win.
Now I know we can win Oregon for Obama. It’s a pretty reliably blue state, although the polls are often close here. With some hard work and a strong message, we can not only keep Oregon blue for Obama… But also send another Democrat to the Senate!
Jeff Merkley is the Democrat running for Senate here. He has a strong record as Oregon’s State House Speaker of bringing all sides to the table to pass legislation that has made a difference in people’s lives while still holding true to his progressive values. That’s why a multitude of progressive advocates, such as Oregon’s labor unions, the Sierra Club, the League of Conservation Voters, Planned Parenthood PAC, and NARAL Pro-Choice America have all endorsed Merkley. Now the Republican incumbent Gordon Smith may claim to be “bipartisan”, but we know he’s just another Bush-Cheney-McCain enabler. The polls here may be close, but withour help and the DSCC’s help Merkley can win.
So will you join us in helping these good Democrats win? We can win the West… As long as we stand up and fight! So will you fight with us? If we want change, we need to suppport it and work for it. So come on, let’s bring some positive change to the West! 🙂
There’s been a decided shift in momentum in the last few weeks in this race: the Merkley internal poll giving him the lead (and giving Smith a catastrophic 61% disapproval rating), a panicky Smith dropping his ‘nice guy’ image to run sleazy attack ads, and Willamette Week pounding away at Smith on the hiring-illegal-immigrants front (with new research released today, interviewing five people who were illegals at the time of employment for the Prince of Peas).
Well, we have some confirmation from a public pollster: Rasmussen, who last month seemed to show a race slipping away from Merkley, shows a huge bounce-back for Merkley, now down just by 1. Significantly, Merkley leads 46-42 among unaffiliated voters.
We at SSP had been suspecting that where there was smoke, there was fire; with confirmation from a public pollster, we feel confident in upgrading this race to “Tossup.”
Over the weekend, skywaker9 diaried about Gordon Smith’s outrageous new ads accusing Jeff Merkley of being soft on sex offenders. The ads, of course, are bogus and misleading, and Merkley is hitting back with a pair of his own spots released today:
The first ad features Kristi Gustafson, an Oregon law enforcement officer, defending Merkley against Smith’s “lies and innuendo”. It’s an effective spot.
Gordon Smith is making a dangerous play with his ads, hoping to saddle Merkley with a Willie Horton-type of situation. It’s a kind of nastiness I haven’t seen in an ad since the 2005 Virginia gubernatorial campaign, when Tim Kaine was pilloried in attack ads for serving as a defense attorney to clients charged with homicide. We all know how that one turned out for Jerry Kilgore.
I sort of wonder if this could be Gordon Smith’s Nancy Johnson moment — an example of an incumbent who everyone thought was “nice” suffering from a heavy backlash after releasing over-the-top attack ads against their political opponents.
It’s a bit too early to tell, but Gordo is skating on some thin ice.