Previous diaries
Summary:
TX has 32 representatives, 20 Republicans and 12 Democrats
Possibly vulnerable:
TX-10 (R)
TX-17 (D)
TX-23 (D)
Sources:
House vote in 2008 from AOL
VoteView (ranked from 1 for most liberal to 447 for most conservative; more than 435 because some districts had more than one rep in the 110th congress)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State
National Atlas for maps
and my previous diaries.
District: TX-01
Location Eastern TX, bordering LA and a tiny bit of AR, including Tyler map
Cook PVI R + 21
Representative Louie Gohmert (R)
VoteView 362
First elected 2004
2008 margin 88-12 over an independent
2006 margin 68-30
2004 margin 61-38
Obama margin 30-69
Bush margin 2004 69-31
Current opponents None declare
Demographics 55th most rural (49.1%), 72nd lowest income (median = $33K), 90th most Blacks (18.9%), 17th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-02
Location Oh, the odd shapes of TX districts! This one mostly runs east west, from the LA border (and the Gulf) west to outer Houston. But it also extends north a bit. map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Ted Poe (R)
VoteView 438
First elected 2004
2008 margin 89-11 over a libertarian
2006 margin 66-33
2004 margin 56-43
Obama margin 40-60
Bush margin 2004 63-37
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 94th most Blacks (19%)
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-03
Location North central TX, including Plano and Garland map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Sam Johnson (R)
VoteView 428
First elected 1991
2008 margin 60-38 over Tom Daley
2006 margin 63-35
2004 margin 86-8-6 over minor parties
Obama margin 42-57
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Current opponents No declared Democrats
Demographics 61st highest income (median = $61K), 61st fewest veterans (9.5%).
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-04
Location Northeastern TX, bordering OK and AR, including Texarkana map
Cook PVI R + 21
Representative Ralph Hall (R) (may retire)
VoteView R + 21
First elected 1980
2008 margin 69-29 over Glenn Melancon
2006 margin 64-33
2004 margin 68-30
Obama margin 30-69
Bush margin 2004 70-30
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 44th most rural (50.4%), 14th most Republican
Assessment Hall is the oldest person in the House (born 1923). But, even if he retires, this is solidly Republican territory.
District: TX-05
Location Shaped like a C; the inner-top of the C is near Dallas, it goes south and then east, and also east directly from Dallas map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Jeb Hansarling (R)
VoteView 441
First elected 2002
2008 margin 84-16 over a Libertarian
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 64-33
Obama margin 41-58
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 35th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-06
Location Shaped sort of like a boot, with an added doodad on top, the top of the boot is south and west of Dallas, it extends south about 100 miles and then east map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Joe Barton (R)
VoteView 391
First elected 1984
2008 margin 62-36 over Ludwig Otto
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 64-33
Obama margin 40-60
Bush margin 2004 67-34
Current opponents Ludwig Otto
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-07
Location Western outskirts of Houston map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative John Culberson (R)
VoteView 357
First elected 2000
2008 margin 56-42 over Michael Skelly
2006 margin 59-38
2004 margin 64-33
Obama margin 41-58
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 70th highest income (median = $58K), 66th fewest veterans (9.9%)
Assessment Vaguely possible, but not at all likely
District: TX-08
Location The southern part of eastern TX, bordering LA map
Cook PVI R + 25
Representative Kevin Brady (R)
VoteView 347.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 73-25 over Kent Hargett
2006 margin 67-33
2004 margin 69-30
Obama margin 25-74
Bush margin 2004 73-28
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 45th lowest income (median = $40K), 8th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-09
Location Part of Houston and southern suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 22
Representative Al Green (D)
VoteView 72
First elected 2004
2008 margin 94-6 over a libertarian
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 72-27
Obama margin 77-23
Bush margin 2004 30-70
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), 54th most Blacks (37%), 64th most Latinos (32.8%), 12th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly 11% Asians), 38th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: TX-10
Location A long, narrow district running from Austin almost to Houston map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Michael McCaul (R)
VoteView 343
First elected 2004
2008 margin 54-43 over Larry Joe Doherty
2006 margin 55-40
2004 margin 79-15-6 against minor party candidates
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents A primary; then Jack McDonald is considering it and has already raised over $600K.
Demographics 77th highest income (median = $52K), 85th most Latinos (18.7%).
Assessment Somewhat vulnerable; McDonald should go for it!
District: TX-11
Location Western TX, bordering (a little) on NM, including Odessa, Midland, and Brownwood map
Cook PVI R + 28
Representative Michael Conaway (R)
VoteView 413
First elected 2004
2008 margin 88-12 over a libertarian
2006 margin Unopposed
2004 margin 77-22
Obama margin 24-75
Bush margin 2004 78-22
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 60th lowest income (median = $33K), 50th most Latinos (29.6%), 3rd most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-12
Location Part of Ft. Worth, and western and northern suburbs map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative Kay Granger (R)
VoteView 358
First elected 1996
2008 margin 68-31 over Tracey Smith
2006 margin 67-31
2004 margin 72-28
Obama margin 36-63
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Current opponents A primary, but no declared Democrat
Demographics 63rd most Latinos (23.7%)
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-13
Location Northern panhandle, bordering OK and NM map
Cook PVI R + 29
Representative Mac Thorberry (R)
VoteView 393
First elected 1994
2008 margin 78-22 over Roger Waun
2006 margin 74-23
2004 margin 92-8 against a libertarian
Obama margin 23-76
Bush margin 2004 78-22
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 72nd lowest income (median = $34K), 2nd most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-14
Location Most of the Gulf Coast of TX map
Cook PVI R + 18
Representative Ron Paul (R)
VoteView 444
First elected 1996
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 33-66
Bush margin 2004 67-33
Current opponents A primary, but no declared Democrat
Demographics 60th most Latinos (24.9%)
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-15
Location Southern TX, between the Gulf and Mexico, but bordering neither map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Ruben Hinojosa (D)
VoteView 164
First elected 1996
2008 margin 66-32 over Eddie Zamora
2006 margin 62-24-15 against two Republicans
2004 margin 58-41
Obama margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 6th lowest income (median = $27K), 59th fewest veterans (9.3%), 18th fewest Whites (19.7%), 64th fewest Blacks (1.7%), 2nd most Latinos (77.6%) (only TX-16 is higher), fewest nonBlack, nonWhite, nonLatino (1%)
Assessment Increasingly safe
District: TX-16
Location Westernmost TX, bordering NM and Mexico, including El Paso map
Cook PVI D + 10
Representative Silvestre Reyes (D)
VoteView 177
First elected 1996
2008 margin 82-10 against an independent
2006 margin 79-21 against a libertarian
2004 margin 68-31
Obama margin 66-33
Bush margin 2004 44-57
Current opponents Tim Besco
Demographics 43rd lowest income (median = $31K), 13th fewest Whites (17.4%), most Latinos (77.7%)
Assessment Safe
District: TX-17
Location Another TX district with twists, but it’s south of Dallas and centers on Waco map
Cook PVI R + 20
Representative Chet Edwards (D)
VoteView 201
First elected 1990
2008 margin 53-45 over Rob Curnock
2006 margin 58-40
2004 margin 51-47
Obama margin 32-67
Bush margin 2004 70-30
Current opponents Rob Curnock is running again, as are other Republicans
Demographics 19th most Republican
Assessment Can’t be considered totally safe, but not that vulnerable
District: TX-18
Location Shaped sort of like a Q, in Houston and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 24
Representative Sheila Jackson Lee (D)
VoteView 17
First elected 1994
2008 margin 77-20 over John Faulk
2006 margin 77-19
2004 margin 89-6-5 against minor party candidates
Obama margin 77-22
Bush margin 2004 28-72
Current opponents John Faulk is running again, as is Tex Christopher
Demographics 40th lowest income (median = $31K), 41st fewest veterans (8.3%), 17th fewest Whites (19.7%), 32nd most Blacks (40.1%), 43rd most Latinos (35.6%), 35th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: TX-19
Location Another weird shape…like a W with extra squiggles. Borders NM in the west, then jiggles around eventually almost reaching the OK border; includes Lubbock map
Cook PVI R + 26
Representative Randy Neugebauer (R)
VoteView 420
First elected 2003
2008 margin 72-25 over Dwight Fullingim
2006 margin 68-30
2004 margin 58-40
Obama margin 27-72
Bush margin 2004 78-23
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 46th lowest income (median = $32K), 53rd most Latinos (29%), 5th most Republican
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-20
Location San Antonio and a odd shaped area around it map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Charlie Gonzalez (D)
VoteView 117.5
First elected 1998
2008 margin 72-25 over Robert Litoff
2006 margin 87-13 against a libertarian
2004 margin 65-32
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 45-55
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 51st lowest income (median = $32K), 31st fewest Whites (23.4%), 9th most Latinos (67.1%)
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-21
Location Mostly west of San Antonio, but also north and east of San Antonio, towards Austin map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Lamar Smith (R)
VoteView 351
First elected 1986
2008 margin 80-20 against a libertarian
2006 margin 60-25-9 (two Democrats)
2004 margin 61-30
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 66-34
Current opponents Lainey Melnick
Demographics 25th most veterans (16.8%).
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-22
Location Oh, I dunno…. a bowtie with one strand loose? Mostly south of Houston map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Pete Olson (R)
VoteView 241
First elected 2008
2008 margin 52-45 over Nick Lampson
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 41-58
Bush margin 2004 64-36
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 48th highest income (median = $58K), 42nd most Republican
Assessment long shot
District: TX-23
Location Western TX, except for El Paso, borders Mexico and NM map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Ciro Rodriguez (D)
VoteView 191
First elected 2006
2008 margin 56-42 over Lyle Larson
2006 margin 54-46
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 51-48
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Francesco Canseco, maybe others
Demographics 74th lowest income (median = $34K), 47th fewest Whites (30%), 13th most Latinos (65.1%).
Assessment Not completely safe, although Rodriguez has raised almost $500K.
District: TX-24
Location Shaped like a T between Dallas and Ft. Worth map
Cook PVI R + 11
Representative Kenny Marchant (R)
VoteView 411
First elected 2004
2008 margin 56-41 over Tom Love
2006 margin 60-37
2004 margin 64-34
Obama margin 44-55
Bush margin 2004 65-35
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 47th highest income (median = $56K)
Assessment Long shot
District: TX-25
Location Austin and southern and eastern suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Lloyd Doggett (D)
VoteView 122
First elected 1994
2008 margin 66-30 over George Morovich
2006 margin 67-26
2004 margin 68-31
Obama margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 46-54
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 94th fewest veterans (10.8%), 98th fewest Whites (52.9%), 45th most Latinos (33.9%)
Assessment safe
District: TX-26
Location A square with two sticks, running north from Ft. Worth to the OK border map
Cook PVI R + 13
Representative Michael Burgess (R)
VoteView 369
First elected 2002
2008 margin 60-36 over Ken Leach
2006 margin 60-37
2004 margin 66-33
Obama margin 41-58
Bush margin 2004 65-35
Current opponents Neil Durrance (errr, someone tell him to fix the pic on his website to show his face)
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment
District: TX-27
Location The southern Gulf coast map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Solomon Ortiz (D)
VoteView 175
First elected 1982
2008 margin 58-38 over Willie Vaden
2006 margin 57-39
2004 margin 63-35
Obama margin 53-46
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents James Duerr
Demographics 41st lowest income (median = $31K), 34th fewest Whites (27.6%), 8th most Latinos (68.1%)
Assessment Pretty safe
District: TX-28
Location Southern TX along the Mexican border map
Cook PVI Even
Representative Henry Cuellar (D)
VoteView 216
First elected 2004
2008 margin 69-29 over Jim Fish
2006 margin 59-39
2004 margin 54-46
Obama margin 56-44
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 17th lowest income (median = $29K), 49th fewest veterans (8.7%), 20th fewest Whites (20.3%), 36th fewest Blacks (1.1%), 3rd most Latinos (77.5%)
Assessment Safe
District: TX-29
Location If you can describe this shape, you’re good! East of Houston map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Gene Green (D)
VoteView 173.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 75-24 over Eric Story
2006 margin 74-24
2004 margin 94-6 against a libertarian.
Obama margin 62-38
Bush margin 2004 44-56
Current opponents Frank Mazzapica
Demographics 48th lowest income (median = $32K), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 10th most Latinos (66.1%)
Assessment Safe
District: TX-30
Location Dallas and southern suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 27
Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)
VoteView 60
First elected 1992
2008 margin 83-16 over Fred Wood
2006 margin 80-18
2004 margin 93-7 against a libertarian
Obama margin 82-18
Bush margin 2004 25-75
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 72nd lowest income ($34K), 45th fewest veterans (8.4%), 28th fewest Whites (21.9%), 30th most Blacks (41.4%), 43rd most Latinos (34.2%), 26th most Democratic
Assessment Safe
District: TX-31
Location North and west of Austin map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative John Carter (R)
VoteView 361
First elected 2002
2008 margin 60-37 over Brian Ruiz
2006 margin 58-39
2004 margin 65-32
Obama margin 41-57
Bush margin 2004 67-34
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 29th most veterans (16.4%)
Assessment long shot
District: TX-32
Location Shaped like most of a circle, near Dallas map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Pete Sessions (R)
VoteView 406
First elected 1996
2008 margin 57-41 over Eric Roberson
2006 margin 56-41
2004 margin 54-44
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Current opponents Steve Love
Demographics 53rd fewest veterans (8.9%), 90th fewest Whites (50.1%), 40th most Latinos (36.2%)
Assessment Safe
Is Pete Sessions the only safe Republican in the entire state?
Kenny Marchant is as useless a congressman as my broken 8 track player. Will I at least have the dignity of being represented in a new district that carved out from the portion of the 24th that is Cedar Hill/ Grand Prairie where I live? And if so, do you think there my new congressman will be State Rep. Kirk England or Rafael Anchia?
Gonzalez is the incumbent in a heavily Democratic district (63% Obama) — he will easily be re-elected.
TX-32 is far from “safe” for Pete Sessions — this a district that has been trending Democratic in recent years (46% for Obama, up from 40% for Kerry) with a rapidly growing and increasingly political powerful Latino community in the district.
The leading Democratic candidate is Grier Raggio, a Dallas attorney from a well known local political family. Raggio is pulling in the early Democratic endorsements, has the ability to raise significant funds, and is well-connected in many parts of the Dallas business, political and non-profit communities.
http://www.raggioforcongress.com/
Steve Love, who you list as the only challenger in TX-32, is generally viewed as an earnest man, but not a serious contender for the seat. Take a look at his website to get a sense of his candidacy:
http://www.stevelove.com/
Democrats represent every district that’s R+8 or better. Except for TX-32 which is R+8. If Pete Sessions has a VoteView score of 406 then maybe he’s too far right for his district, and it’s worth a serious challenge.
TX-5 is represented by Jeb Hensarling not Hansarling.
Texas already is a majority minority state although barely (47% non-hispanic whites). Voters are a trailing indicator being older and citizens. Republicans have chosen to pack 10 districts with 70% or more minority population and all are held by Democrats. The two anglo districts are held down by Chet Edwatds and Lloyd Doggett. Doggett’s district includes Austin and is only 52% non-hispanic white. Chet Edwards is Chet Edwards.
So in Texas, Anglo = Republican.
At some point, things will break through on the state-wide level. Until then, gerrymandered Texas will remain the key Republican stronghold.