Filing in WI and NY

Today was the filing deadline in WI as well as the second day of New York’s four day filing period.  Wisconsin information is partial as some candidates have filed the paperwork but the state has not validated their signatures.

The big news is that each side in Wisconsin will field at least one candidate with no major party opposition.  For Republicans, James Sensenbrenner will face a primary challenger (Jim Burkee) and an Independent on the fall ballot (Robert Raymond) but no Democrat.  Gwen Moore (D, WI-4) will also face an Independent in the fall (Michael LaForest) but no Republican.  

Four Democrats appear to have qualified to oppose Paul Ryan in WI-1 (Paulette Garin, Mike Hebert, Marge Krupp, John Mogk).  They will meet in a September 9 primary.  Roger Kittelson has the signatures to oppose Tom Petri in WI-6 (unopposed in 2006).  He may (or may not) face Mark Wollom in a primary depending on the validation of signatures.

Signatures must also be validated for three Republicans seeking to make the ballot in Wisconsin.  Surprisingly, one of them is John Gard.  This may show a bit of weakness in his candidacy in WI-8.  The others are Peter Theron in WI-2 (vs. Tammy Baldwin) and Paul Stark in WI-3 (vs. Ron Kind).  Could there be another free ride?

In NY, two of the three Republican House incumbents who have actually expressed interest in retaining their seats have filed: Peter King and John McHugh.  It will be interesting to see if a candidate emerges in NY-13 and what the deal is in NY-25 and how many free rides come out of Democratic districts in the City.

The number of Republican House members who have not yet filed or announced their retirement is down to four in the entire country:  Steve Scalise (LA-1), Rodney Alexander (LA-5), Mike Castle (DE-At Large), and Randy Kuhl (NY-29).  At this point, I expect all to run.  

On the Democratic side, the biggest question mark as we wrap up filing remains whether we will find an opponent in NY-3 for Peter King.  This is an eminently winnable seat.  I think there may be a cattle call when King retires.  Only when will that be?

An interesting side note is the number of high profile primary challenges to Democratic state senators and assembly members.  Reading the Albany Project blog or the Albany Times-Union (local politics don’t seem as big in the NY City dailies), you’d think the state senate had already changed hands.  

Free ride in Congress

The filing deadline has passed in a lot of states.  That leads me to wonder, how many congressional races have no opponent?  Which Democrats? Which Republicans?

More below the fold

Here’s a list of states where the filing deadline has passed:

Alabama

Arkansas

California

Illinois

Indiana

Idaho

Iowa

Kentucky

Maine

Maryland

Mississippi

Nebraska

New Jersey

New Mexico

North Carolina

Ohio

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Missouri

Montana

South Dakota

South Carolina

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

West Virginia

The 29  unopposed Democrats (the results in 2004 presidency and 2006 congressional races

AL-07 Kerry by 33, Davis unopposed.  

AR-01 Bush by 5, Berry by 38

AR-02 , Bush by 4, Snyder by 20

AR-04 Bush by 3, Ross by 50

CA-18, Bush essentially tied with Kerry, but Cardoza won by 30 plus

CA-28, a hugely Democratic district: Kerry won by 44, Berman by 55

CA-30, like CA-28: Kerry by 32, Waxman by 45

CA-31, Kerry by 55, Becerra was unopposed

CA-32, Kerry by 35, Solis unopposed

CA-37, Kerry by 38, Richardson by 42

CA-38 Kerry by 32, Napolitano by 51

IL-02  Kerry by 58, Jackson unopposed

IL-04 Kerry by 54, Gutierrez by 73

IL-05 Kerry by 28, Emanuel by 56

IL-07 Kerry by 67, Davis by 74

MO-01 Kerry by 50, Clay by 49

NJ-01 Kerry by 21, Andrews unopposed

NJ-06 Kerry by 14, Pallone by 39

NJ-08 Kerry by 18, Pascrell by 43

NJ-10 Kerry by 64, Payne unopposed

NJ-12 Kerry by 9, Holt by 31

OR-04 Kerry by 0.3%, DeFazio by 35

PA-14 Kerry by

39, Doyle unopposed

TN-06  Bush by 20, Gordon by 36

TN-08 Bush by 8, Tanner by 46

TN-00 Kerry by 44, Cohen by 43

TX-09 Kerry by 40, Green unopposed

TX-16 Kerry by 13, Reyes unopposed

WV-01 Bush by 16, Mollohan by 29

11 Unopposed Republicans:

AL-06 Bush by 59, Bachus unopposed

AR-03 Bush by 26, Boozman by 25

CA-19 Bush by 23, Radonovich by 21

CA-22 Bush by 38, McCarthy by 41

KY-05 Bush by 21, Rogers by 48

TX-01 Bush by 39, Gohmert by 38

TX-02 Bush by 37,

Poe by 33

TX-05 Bush by 34, Hensarling by 27

TX-11 Bush by 57, Conaway unopposed

TX-14 Bush by 35, Paul by 21

TX-21 Bush by 32, Smith by 36

Given what all these races were like in 2006, it’s likely that none would have been competitive, even if there were opponents.  But it’s still a lot easier to win with no opponent at all.  It’s also interesting that there are quite a few southern seats where Bush won in 2004, but the Democratic congressperson wins easily and has no opposition.  There aren’t any equivalents in the other direction: Where there’s no Democrat running, not only did the Republican congressperson have an easy win in 2006, but so did Bush in 2004