Author: sawolf

The following map was drawn to resemble the potential product of a possible non-partisan independent redistricting commission which has been proposed but unlikely to be implemented in North Carolina.  The goals I had for drawing the districts consisted of geographic compactness, relevant communities of interest without regard to incumbency, and maintaining a VRA-protected black majority district in northern/eastern NC.  Only 13 counties were split, 6 of which were done to draw a VRA district, and I tried to avoid splitting towns where possible.

NC-01 (Blue)     (Open)

70.2% Obama     50.0% Black, 38.8% White

The first district is VRA protected and hence was my starting point since it needed to gain around 100,000 people from its current configuration.  The major change is that the 1st now includes the heavily black portions of Durham and Raleigh and recedes from the coast to avoid splitting counties.  The black voting age population could likely be increased a couple percentage points with precinct level data since the Wake county voting districts are quite large.  This was also the only district which required double-crossing counties, but it is still far more compact than the current version.

Politically, this district is still very heavily Democratic, and although it no longer contains G.K. Butterfield’s home of Wilson he would probably run here.

Safe Democratic

NC-02 (Green)     Renee Ellmers (R-Dunn)

55.2% McCain     70.9% White

The second district becomes much more compact by shredding its arms into Fayetteville and Sampson County and settling around suburban Wake County.  Ellmers would probably like this district since it’s much more Republican, however she is representing a large amount of new territory.  Suburban Wake County was also home to a large amount of the region’s explosive growth as people moved into North Carolina, and the district will likely experience substantial change over 10 years. The same disclaimer for NC-01 goes here though: the Wake County voting districts contain very large amounts of people so precinct data would make the 2nd Whiter since it could trade black population to the 1st.

Safe Republican

NC-03 (Purple)      Walter Jones (R-Farmville) / G.K. Butterfield (D-Wilson)

54.1% McCain     68.6% White, 24.6% Black

As the second part of the map I drew, the 3rd is essentially a complement to the 1st by absorbing its tendrils towards the coast.  The most major changes to the 3rd are that it no longer includes Onslow County and Camp Lejeune while including New Bern and Wilson since it is intended to be a district for the northeastern coast and Outer Banks.  While both Jones and Butterfield live here, Jones would be heavily favored and fairly lucky that he didn’t get drawn into NC-01.  While moderate-to-conservative white Democrats have historically done well in eastern NC, the Democratic primary would contain a large minority voting base which could increase the chances of nominating a minority candidate or someone viewed as too liberal.  Furthermore, Jones has a fair amount of crossover support, likely due to his father’s long tenure as a Democratic rep and his own somewhat heterodox positions.  Lastly, state Dems suffered heavy losses here in 2010, which could signal the rise of more party polarization among whites.

Safe Republican

NC-04 (Red)     David Price (D-Chapel Hill) / Brad Miller (D-Raleigh)

61.1% Obama     70.4% White, 14.2% Black

The 4th district trades large amounts of Wake County among neighboring districts so that it contains the rest of Raleigh and Durham, in addition to Chapel Hill and most of Cary.  Like the 2nd, this district contains some of the highest-growth parts of the state, but unlike the second would have a very large proportion of white liberals.  A Democrat is virtually guaranteed to win here, but since both Price and Miller have a large part of their base in the district it would be interesting to see who would emerge from a primary, although it is possible that Price would retire instead.

Safe Democratic

NC-05 (Yellow)     Virginia Foxx (R-Banner Elk)

59.1% McCain     84.1% White

The 5th is largely unchanged from the current district but on the whole moves slightly westward to accommodate the changes to the 10th.  It still contains about half of Winston-Salem which only makes up a fifth of the total district.  Unfortunately, this means that Virginia Foxx could and would win here.

Safe Republican

NC-06 (Teal)     Larry Kissell (D-Biscoe)

60.6% McCain     79.2% White

The 6th was drawn to constitute represent small town/rural central NC and therefore loses its large portions of Guilford County.  The largest city in the new 6th is now Burlington with 50,000 people and the next two largest cities are around half that size.  While Kissell is drawn into the district, it’s much more likely that he would run in the neighboring 8th if he ran at all and that Howard Coble would run here since it contains a decent portion of his current district.  In the event that Coble retired, a Republican would have little trouble holding this seat.

Safe Republican

NC-07 (Gray)     (Open)

54.7% McCain     72.4% White, 17.6% Black

The new 7th was drawn to include the southernmost portion of the NC coast and as a result contains Wilmington, Jacksonville, and then Goldsboro at the northern end since I thought it more appropriately belonged to eastern NC than to a Raleigh metro area district.  Mike McIntyre might consider running here since he already represents Wilmington and over half the total district. Like the 3rd, this district contains areas which have been friendly to conservative white Democrats, so McIntyre wouldn’t be completely screwed, but would still be facing a very difficult challenge.

Likely Republican

NC-08 (Slate)     Mike McIntyre (D-Lumberton)

55.8% Obama     48.2% White, 32.3% Black, 8.8% Native, 7.3% Hispanic

The 8th district changes significantly by losing Charlotte and becoming anchored around Fayetteville and Robeson County, which contains McIntyre’s home of Lumberton.  This district forms a better community of interest for inland southeastern NC and also has a significant minority presence due to a large black and Native American population.  Mike McIntyre wouldn’t stand a chance here though since he’s far too conservative for a 56% Obama district and would likely face a challenge from a minority/liberal Democrat.  Larry Kissell on the other hand might be able to win here since it contains a majority of the current 8th and Kissell probably has more credibility to move to the left than McIntyre would.  Regardless of who wins the eventual primary barring a Coakley repeat, Democrats would be heavily favored.

Safe Democratic

NC-09 (Cyan)     (Open)

59.6% McCain     77.5% White

The 9th changes significantly by moving out of almost all of Charlotte proper and instead forms around the suburbs and exurbs to the east and north of the city.  As drawn, this district had the most growth of any over the past 10 years and will probably continue to see significant growth as the Charlotte metro area grows.  Sue Myrick technically lives in Charlotte, but she would probably have no trouble running and winning here despite half the territory being new.

Safe Republican

NC-10 (Magenta)     Patrick McHenry (R-Cherryville)

62.3% McCain     81.9% White

The biggest change to the 10th is that it now includes all of Gastonia and Appalachian territory to the 5th and 11th.  The core of the district is a bit more southwestern Piedmont NC now than Appalachian, but still contains elements of both.  Like with Virginia Foxx, McHenry is essentially still representing his own seat due to geographic constraints.

Safe Republican

NC-11 (Chartreuse)     Heath Shuler (D-Waynesville)

52.2% McCain     88.9% White

The 11th undergoes the least change of all the districts since it is tucked into a corner.  The only changes include the addition of Mitchell County and more of Rutherford County.  As a result, this district stays fairly swingy, but Shuler should have a strong advantage due to his incumbency and conservatism.

Likely D with Shuler

Tossup/Tilt R if Open

NC-12 (Steel Blue)     Mel Watt (D-Charlotte) / Sue Myrick (R-Charlotte)

66.4% Obama     48.1% White, 33.5% Black, 11.7% Hispanic

Nearly everyone who’s learned of gerrymandering in civics class in the last 20 years knows of the infamous NC-12 (though usually in the context of it helping Democrats… yeah, I’m not sure how that still happens either).  Well fear no more, the arm up I-85 is gone!  The 12th is not a legally mandated VRA district and thus can avoid worrying about retrogression.  The district now contains almost all of Charlotte proper in addition to the western edge of Mecklenburg County.  It’s still majority minority, but plurality white.  However, this district grew significantly from 2000-2010 and went from 55.9% to 44.2% white by total population.  Anyway, Mel Watt should be pretty well situated to win here if he can avoid a primary challenge; only 1/3rd of the district is currently in the 12th, but it consists mostly of black Democrats who form Watt’s base.

Safe Democratic

NC-13 (Salmon)     Howard Coble (R-Summerfield)

57.6% Obama     58.3% White, 31.0% Black, 6.5% Hispanic

The 13th is essentially a different district, and here it gives the Triad its own district since the 12th is now removed.  Since I wanted to make the 5th and 6th as compact as I could without having them surround the 13th, I ended up splitting Winston-Salem and giving the more minority heavy parts to the 13th.  An alternative drawing places all of Winston, High Point, and Greensboro in the 13th and has the 5th and 6th readjust to take in Rockingham and Caswell counties plus rural/suburban Guilford, but I felt that this was too much of a gerrymander and it also splits another county.  In any event, Coble stands no chance here and probably calls it quits, but since he has supposedly forsworn his House pension and retirement benefits, he might run in the 6th instead.  Democrats should easily hold this version of the 13th.

Safe Democratic

Alternate NC-5/6/13:

NC-05 62.3% McCain

NC-06 60.2% McCain

NC-13 60.3% Obama

The likely result:  5D – 7R – 1(Shuler)

Summary:

Overall the district lines have become much cleaner, especially in eastern NC.  All but 3 of the seats are practically safe for the incumbent party, and the likely partisan change in the near-term results in Republicans picking up the 7th district.  From a compactness standpoint, the districts correlate fairly clearly to distinct communities of interest, especially in Eastern NC, and Charlotte and the Triad get their ‘own’ seats.  Again, the black % of the 1st can be increased with a more precise mapping tool since the Wake County voting districts are huge.

What I really liked about this map was the division of southeastern and coastal NC since they constitute pretty coherent communities of interest.  Additionally, both the 7th and 3rd contain areas where moderate to conservative Democrats performed fairly well, although Dems lost several statehouse seats there in 2008, but the partisan numbers for Obama/McCain are somewhat misleading since he significantly underperformed Kay Hagan in 2008.  Therefore, Dems would have a decent chance to win the 7th with a strong moderate candidate in the right environment, but barring a McIntyre upset in 2012, and thus continued incumbency, would still be the definite underdogs.  Regardless, the coastal area is likely a region where Democrats are losing their influence due to increasing ideological and race-based voting polarization.

Lastly, this map goes to show how even an independent or non-partisan map still has its obvious downside since it’s very easy to pack in Democrats in urban areas, and is among other reasons why I think it’s preferable to have some mix of proportional representation.  An independent commission wouldn’t pass the General Assembly either since Republicans now have full control of the process, but it is nonetheless interesting to create a theoretically commission-drawn map.

UPDATE:

Per suggestions by user displacedyankdem I redrew the map to feature a rural NC-01 that doesn’t include any of Raleigh or Durham… and it ends up being pretty ridiculous, which leads me to think that it would have to contain either Durham or Raleigh.  But here it is with two different configurations for Fayetteville:

In both versions the 4th is now a Chapel Hill, Durham, Chatham County/Southern Wake County district, while the 13th is Raleigh and Cary.  The Triad is now the 8th due to that district being eliminated.  The 1st also meanders down the entire eastern interior of the state to find black voters, and it’s still only 50% VAP black.  The 3rd is now the entire coast north of Wilmington.  For these districts, the major change is that the 3rd becomes significantly whiter and more Republican while the Dem friendly district based in the southeast moves to form a third Dem district further north.

The variation between these two maps comes from Fayetteville; I had wanted to draw the 7th as a New Hanover, Robeson, and Cumberland County based district, but Fayetteville had too much population for that so in the first version it’s split while in the second it’s all given to the 2nd district.  The split version makes the 7th 51.7% Obama and the 2nd 58.8% McCain, while the second version the 7th is 53.7% McCain and the 2nd is 52.1% McCain.  Mike McIntyre would probably be all right in the version where his district contains Fayetteville, but would likely have a tough time in the other version.

Anyway, this all goes to show how difficult it is to draw a VRA district without including one of the major cities since North Carolina’s black population is so diffuse.

Here are two maps of Virginia I drew which are visual opposites. One is 7-4 in favor of Republicans with 3 majority minority districts for Dems with one in nova and the other two around Richmond and Hampton Roads, both of which are majority VAP black. The other is a ‘fair district’ map with compact districts designed to give the state a delegation more reflective of a purple state: 5 likely Dems after Frank Wolf retires, 5 likely Republicans, and 1 swing district. Since I don’t know as much about the political geography of Virginia as I do North Carolina this diary will be less extensive than the previous one.

First Map:

VA-01 (Blue)     Rob Wittman (R)

56.4% McCain

The 1st moves away from northern VA, westward, and loses some black voters to become a stronger R district.

Safe Republican

VA-02 (Green)     Scott Rigell (R)/ Randy Forbes (R)

56.5% McCain

The 2nd takes in Chesapeake and wraps west around Norfolk to create a solid R district, but pits both incumbents together, though Rigell would probably be favored since it contains most of the old 2nd.

Safe Republican

VA-03 (Purple)     Bobby Scott (D)

72.4% Obama     38.1% White/50.6% Black

The 3rd moves out of Richmond to become centered on Virginia Beach, Norfolk, and Hampton, while becoming slightly less black and democratic.

Safe Democratic

VA-04 (Red)     Open

68.9% Obama     41.5% White/50.4% Black

The 4th undergoes major changes to become a black majority district based on Richmond then extending its tentacles to draw in minority areas and giving Democrats a new fourth seat.

Safe Democratic

VA-05 (Yellow)     Rob Hurt (R)

56.3% McCain

The 5th moves westward some while ceding minority voter territory to the 4th, which makes the district considerably more Republican.

Safe Republican

VA-06 (Teal)     Bob Goodlatte (R)

57% McCain

The 6th cedes some territory to the neighboring 5th and 9th to shore them up, but also moves Roanoke to the 9th so that it can take in some more Democratic friendly territory from the 11th in NOVA and allow the 10th to become more gop friendly.  Although Goodlatte lives in Roanoke he still would represent a decent amount of his old district.

Safe Republican

VA-07 (Gray)     Eric Cantor (R)

59.1% McCain

Cantor’s district completely leaves the Shenandoah Valley to take in the remainder of Richmond and the surrounding area while in the process becoming a safer district for him.

Safe Republican

VA-08 (Slate Blue)     Jim Moran (D)

63.9% Obama

The 8th conforms more to the Potomac to allow the 11th to be majority minority, other than that there aren’t any significant political changes.

Safe Democratic

VA-09 (Cyan)     Morgan Griffith (R)

57.6% McCain

The 9th pretty much just needed to gain population, but I also wanted the 6th to absorb territory from NOVA, so I gave the 9th Roanoke and Salem which made it more Democratic.  However, it seems unlikely that Rick Boucher is itching for a rematch against Griffith, and even if he were, this district is still looking pretty favorable to Republicans.

Safe Republican vs. Generic D

Leans Republican vs. Rick Boucher

VA-10 (Magenta)     Frank Wolf (R)

51.2% McCain, 54.5% R

The 10th pivots to sprawl out west from Fairfax County rather than northwest while becoming considerably more Republican in the process, though with a good candidate and environment Dems could win this seat.  However, Frank Wolf would likely be heavily favored here until he retires.

Safe Republican with Frank Wolf

Likely Republican if open

VA-11 (Chartreuse)     Gerry Connolly (D)

65.6% Obama     41% White/17.7% Black/23.6% Hispanic/15% Asian

Connolly’s district changes significantly to become majority minority and much more heavily Democratic, though I might have drawn out the part of Fairfax in which he lives. Regardless, Connolly or any other Dem should have no trouble winning here.

Safe Democratic

Summary:

Republicans shore up the 1st, 2nd, 5th, and 10th. Democrats pick up the 4th and shore up the 11th.

Second Map:

This map takes a fairly divergent view of the VRA than does the first by allowing the 3rd to simply be majority minority even though it’s not majority black, which probably would not hold up in court, but regardless, this map is designed to have ‘compact’ districts and give each party 5 safe or likely seats with one swing seat.

Districts 01-Wittman, 05-Hurt, 06-Goodlatte, 07-Cantor, and 09-Griffith are all over 55% Republican and are designed to be safe Republican districts, or likely at worst.  Cantor is the only Republican in the game of musical chairs who would have to relocate for his district since Richmond is now pretty Democratic.

Districts 03-Scott, 04-Open, 08-Moran, and 11-Connolly are all over 58% Obama districts and are pretty much safe for Dems.  The 3rd is now 49.8% White. The 10th (Wolf-R) is a 55.7% Obama district and contains about half of Wolf’s current territory and gives him a new half which Obama won with about 61%, so this should prompt him to retire allowing Dems to gain the seat.

The 2nd-Rigell(R)/Forbes(R) is a swing/lean R district at 50.5% McCain, 53.2% Republican.

Summary: Dems have districts centered on Hampton Roads, Richmond, and 2-3 in DC suburbs/exurbs depending on how Dems defeat or force retirement on Frank Wolf.  Republicans have 5 districts in the rural areas of the state. Virginia Beach is meant to be a competitive, slightly R leaning seat, so for the time being Scott Rigell would still probably hold it.

On a final note, the first map goes to show that it’s pretty difficult to draw and practically impossible for the DOJ to force Virginia to have 2 majority voting age black districts, but that it secures the partisan balance pretty well at 7-4.  The second map is merely meant to be an opposite view from the first map in terms of compactness since it would be highly unlikely to be passed even as a compromise map and possibly violates the VRA concerning retrogression.

So I finally registered on SSP and this map is my first posting of North Carolina. It’s intended to result in 9 safe GOP districts, all of which are 57% McCain or above, and 4 safe majority-minority Dem districts, two of which are plurality VAP black.

Overview:

From East to West:

Finally, a close up of the Triangle and the Triad:

All districts are within 500 of ideal population as follows:

Obama/McCain       White/Black/Hispanic/Asian/Native/other

NC-1 (Blue)        G.K. Butterfield (D)

67.5-32.0        40.9/47.8/7.4/1.7/0.7/1.5

The 1st loses a bit of the coastal region but the only major change is a snaking addition into Raleigh to pick up heavily Democratic and minority voters so as to have enough population.

Safe Democratic

NC-2 (Green)        Renee Ellmers (R), Larry Kissell (D)/Mike McIntyre (D)

40.7-58.4        69.3/15.2/9.5/2.5/1.6/2.0

The 2nd undergoes significant changes as it loses area in Raleigh proper and the counties to the northeast and gains heavily Republican territory to the south and west from the current 7th and 8th districts.  Ellmers should be safe here barring a primary challenge from another Republican, but seeing as how she’s very conservative this shouldn’t be a huge problem for her. Incidentally, Kissell’s home in Biscoe and possibly McIntyre’s in Lumberton have both been placed into the 2nd.

Safe Republican

NC-3 (Purple)        Walter Jones (R)

40.8-58.3        76.5/14.6/5.5/1.1/0.4/1.8

The 3rd loses its appendage towards Wilson and Rocky Mount and gains one snaking down the rest of the coast to include Republican friendly territory from the current 7th. Jones’ district becomes slightly more Democratic but that shouldn’t be much of a problem for him.

Safe Republican

NC-4 (Red)        David Price (D)

77.4-21.8        41.6/37.9/11.9/5.9/0.4/2.2

The 4th loses all of the southern 3rd and northwestern section of Wake County and instead bisects it to pick up heavily Democratic and minority voters.  The most radical change to the 4th, and what makes this configuration so devastating, is that it extends an arm across Alamance and Guilford counties, picking up very heavily minority and Democratic territory from Greensboro and High Point and in the process screwing over Brad Miller. The 4th is one of the most Democratic districts in the South and would be one of the most Democratic MMD to elect a white Democrat.

Safe Democratic

NC-5 (Yellow)        Virginia Foxx (R)

41.2-57.6        80.7/9.0/7.0/1.6/0.2/1.5

The 5th loses territory around Winston Salem and the counties to the north and west while trading territory with the 11th around Marion, Lenoir, and Hickory.  The district also adds territory in northern Mecklenburg.  Virginia Foxx might have some difficulty here since the 5th has become a moderate amount more Democratic and undergoes a moderate to large change in territory, however this is due to her weakness as a candidate.  Even Foxx should be all right here, and a generic R will have little to no trouble.

Safe Republican

NC-6 (Teal)        Howard Coble (R)

41.0-57.9        75.6/12.8/7.8/1.9/0.4/1.5

The 6th keeps most of its base in Greensboro and suburban Guilford county while the only substantial changes include trading Moore for Chatham county and taking in some outer heavily Democratic precincts in Guilford so that the surrounding Republicans can be shored up. I accidentally drew Coble out of the 6th since he actually lives in Summerfield, but that shouldn’t really be a problem since he’s represented much of the district for decades and probably won’t serve that many more terms anyway. It will probably trend a little Democratic over the decade but should be safe for Coble or any other country club Republican.

Safe Republican

NC-7 (Gray)        Open/Mike McIntyre (D)

63.3-36.0        41.0/37.2/9.5/1.5/8.2/2.6

And here is where the fun begins. I could have just done an 8-3-2 map leaving Shuler and McIntyre in competitive districts, or another configuration of 9-4, but after playing around with DRA a little, I realized it was possible to draw a 4th (heavily gerrymandered) majority-minority district in southeastern NC. So here goes:

The 7th loses most of the whiter parts of its current configuration and adds minority heavy areas to the north in Goldsboro and to the west in territory from the current 8th. Fayetteville is now almost entirely within the 7th. All but one voting block within Mike McIntyre’s hometown of Lumberton is included in the 7th, but that is pretty much irrelevant because McIntyre wouldn’t last two seconds in a primary here seeing as how the district is significantly more Democratic than the current 7th.

Overall, the only reason the GOP would consider allowing for this configuration is that it unambiguously removes Kissell and protects Ellmers and Myrick, but at the cost of securing a seat for a significantly more liberal Democrat than McIntyre.

Safe Democratic

NC-8 (Steel Blue)        Open

40.7-58.4        68.3/18.2/9.5/1.6/0.4/1.9

The 8th here bears no resemblance to the current district and reflects just how screwed Larry Kissell would be since the surrounding districts have gobbled up the entirety of his district.  The new 8th stretches from Wake to Onslow county and is composed mostly of territory from the current 2nd and 3rd. Before 2010 there would have been the chance for a Mike McIntyre clone the right type of Democrat to win here, but Dems got absolutely slaughtered here in 2010 and have a bit of a weak bench.

Safe Republican

NC-9 (Cyan)        Sue Myrick (R)

40.4-58.7        75.8/11.3/8.6/2.4/0.3/1.6

Due to population gains the 9th had to shed a lot of territory and does so by losing all of its area in Gaston and northern Mecklenburg counties.  Since the 9th showed quite a large shift in voting patterns between 04 and 08 I added more conservative territory from the dead carcass of Larry Kissell’s 8th district with the 9th now containing blood red territory to the east of Charlotte.  This district should be safe for Myrick, but it would be interesting to see how it trends over the whole decade due to large gains in population.

Safe Republican

NC-10 (Magenta)        Patrick McHenry (R)

41.9-57.1        78.1/11.4/6.2/2.3/0.3/1.6

The 11th changes significantly in order to allow Republicans to remove Shuler in the neighboring 11th. The district picks up the remnants of the old 9th in Gaston County and reaches an arm into Ashville to annex the majority of its Democratic base.  To compensate for this lunge towards the left, the 10th district trades Democratic leaning Hickory, Lenoir, and Morganton to the 5th in exchange for more dyed-in-the-wool Republicans.  The district becomes significantly more Democratic from extremely safe Republican to just pretty safe Republican, but McHenry now represents a lot of new territory and could be vulnerable to a primary challenge.

Safe Republican

NC-11 (Chartreuse)        Heath Shuler (D)

41.7-57.0        87.6/3.9/5.0/0.7/1.4/1.6

Ah, the other beauty of this map. Since the 9th is able to shift east unhindered by Larry Kissell’s 8th, the 10th is able to also shift east, which provides ultra conservative territory for the 11th to pick up. Ashville and Marion are almost entirely removed from the 11th which deprives Shuler of Democratic base voters, however it is plausible that his appeal to conservative-leaning Dems and Indies could provide a path to victory. Generic R would be heavily favored against Shuler and all but guaranteed against a Generic D.

Likely Republican vs. Shuler

Safe Republican vs. Generic D

NC-12 (Medium Blue)        Mel Watt (D)

73.2-26.1        35.3/43.1/15.3/3.9/0.3/2.1

The 12th loses all of Greensboro, High Point, and Thomasville, but picks up large parts of eastern Charlotte from the old 8th.  There’s nothing else but some minor changes, such as not hugging the county line between Charlotte and Winston-Salem to free up extra Republican voters. There’s no point in crying about not splitting towns and counties when it doesn’t constitute a back door veto on a Democratic gerrymander. Republicans have stated that they won’t draw anything like the current 8th, but it still remains an effective vote sink when drawn from Charlotte to Winston-Salem.

Safe Democratic

NC-13 (Salmon)        Open/Brad Miller (D)

42.0-57.0        77.8/13.0/5.9/1.6/0.3/1.4

Karma has it out for Brad Miller with this map, although pretty much any GOP effort guarantees he’s finished, which is quite a shame.  The 13th loses all of its heavily democratic territory in Greensboro, Burlington, and Cary, and most of it in Raleigh in exchange for the most GOP-friendly parts of northern Wake County. Additionally, the 13th moves westward to pick up large amounts of territory from the 5th by extending across to Yadkin County. Since I didn’t know exactly where Brad Miller lives in central Raleigh, it’s possible he lives in either the 1st or the 13th, but that’s utterly irrelevant since the 13th no longer contains his urban bases in Wake and Guilford counties.

Safe Republican

Intended result:

Summary:

Republicans shore up all of their incumbents, most importantly Ellmers and Myrick, while dividing up fast growing Wake and Mecklenburg counties among various buffered districts. Brad Miller, Larry Kissell, and Mike McIntyre are dead men walking. Miller gets replaced by a conservative Republican, Kissell has no district and a conservative Republican wins the new 8th to the east. McIntyre is defeated in the primary by a much more liberal, minority Democrat if he runs in the new 7th. Heath Shuler likely loses to a Republican without the Democratic base in Ashville. Furthermore, by removing Shuler, Kissell, and McIntyre in 2012 the GOP prevents a statewide challenge from a moderate-to-conservative Democratic sitting congressman in 2016.

This configuration is made entirely possible by its four majority minority Dem vote sinks which lock in the 9-4 split, assuming that Shuler loses, for most, if not all of the decade. Additionally, the 4th is a 77%!!!1!1! Obama district yet only 54.2% VAP minority, and is an ambitious radical, socialist, atheist Marxist’s Democrat’s wet dream.

Now… obviously this map would draw myriad lawsuits after all of two seconds, and state Republicans have claimed they won’t attempt anything like the current 12th, but they were also clamoring for independent redistricting until they found themselves in the majority. It’s not sleek and pretty, and it could only care a little less about city and county lines, but if this map has any chance of surviving in court then having 9 safe seats is much smarter for the Republicans than having 8 or 10 shaky seats with the added bonus that anyone who won the 4 Dem districts would likely be too liberal to win statewide.

And as an added bonus, North Carolina with 5 majority minority districts:



All are majority minority voting age population, and the first remains majority black, but barely so.

What do you all think?