Had a whole write up posted but it got deleted. No comments this time but you guys know the deal by now. Its a 17-16-3 Democratic gerrymander.
http://img.photobucket.com/alb…
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El Paso: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…
District 1 (Blue) 54 Obama 66 Hispanic
El Paso and Odessa
Lean/Likely D
District 2 (Green) 57 O 72 H
El Paso and tentacles
Likely D
District 3 (Purple) 56 O 78 H
Mexican Border and some other counties
Likely D
District 4 (Red) 55 0 74 H
Mexican Border and it snakes up
Lean/Likely D
District 5 (Yellow) 55 0 72 H
Mexican Border and Corpus Christi
Likely D
District 6 (Teal) 34 O 59 White
Counties that border the Gulf of Mexico and going inward.
Safe R
San Antonio: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…
District 7 (Gray) 55 O 58 H
Southern San Antonio and surrounding areas
Likely D
District 8 (Lilac Purple) 54 O 54 H
Middle of San Antonio and some other parts of Bexar county.
Lean/Likely D
District 9 (Sky Blue) 33 O 69 W
Northern San Antonio and its conservative suburbs and exurbs.
Safe R
Austin: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…
District 10 (Bright Pink) 55 O 57 W
Austin and its suburbs
Likely D
District 11 (Lime Green) 54 O 63 W
Austin
Lean/Likely D
District 12 (Periwinkle) 53 O 67 W
Austin and Killeen
Lean D
District 13 (Burt Sienna) 31 O 74 W
Waco, Temple and empty spaces
Safe R
District 14 (Gold) 25 O 66 W
A lot of space and part of lubbock
Safe R
District 15 (Orange) 25 O 66 W
More Nothing.
Safe R
Fort Worth: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…
District 16 (Kelly Green) 52 O 51 W
Surprisingly Conservative Fort Worth
Toss-Up
District 17 (Navy Blue) 30 O 84 W
Suburbs of Fort Worth
Safe R
Dallas: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…
District 18 (Golden Yellow) 59 O, 30 Black 19 Hispanic 5 Asian
Dallas
Safe D
District 19 (Puke Green) 54 O, 22 Black 27 Hispanic 2 Asian
Dallas and a few southward counties
Likely D
District 20 (Rose) 55 O, 39 Hispanic 14 Black 6 Asian
Dallas and Irving
Likely D
District 21 (Blood Red) 50 O, 54 W
Dallas and surrounding areas
Toss-Up
District 22 (Poo Brown) 39 O 72 W
North of Dallas and FW
Safe R (Winnable with a great candidate in a good year or an incumbent in an ok one, but tilts very r)
District 23 (Robin’s Egg Blue) 35 O 75 W
North of FW to OK border
Safe R
District 24 (Dark Purple) 29 O 72 W
Wraps Around 19, 13 to the end of 11
Safe R
District 25 (Salmon) 35 O, 79 W
North Of Dallas
Safe R
District 26 (Dark Gray) 33 O, 77 W
Between OK Border and 24
Safe R
District 27 (Seafoam Green)31 O 72 W
Along the LA Border
Safe R
Houston: http://img.photobucket.com/alb…
Note: I made a small error here in the large map. It is fixed in the numbers and in the close–up of houston (part of the district didn’t connect)
District 28 (Really Light Purple) 58 O 28 Black 13 Asian 26 Hispanic
Southwest Houston
Safe D
District 29 (Sage Green) 33 O 73 W
Northeast of Houston
Safe R
District 30 (Pinkish-Red near houston) 33 O 70 W
Wraps Around Houston
Safe R
District 31 (Pale Yellow) 39 O, 61 W
South of Houston
Safe R (See District 22)
District 32 (Bright Red) 37 O, 66 W
Wraps even closer around Houston then does 30
Safe R
District 33 (Denim Blue) 56 O, 24 B 7 A 28 H
Houston
Likely D
District 34 (Green in Houston) 51 O, 12 B 6 A 34 H
Houston
Toss-up
District 35 (Purple in Houston) 53 O, 16 B 3 A 43 H
North Houston
Lean D
District 36 (Orange in Houston) 62 O, 26 B 42 H
Southeast Houston riding up to Northwest Houston
Safe D
What I think makes this most effective is that the Democratic districts will only get more liberal over the Decade, cementing the safety of Incumbents and helping unseat any republicans who manage to pull an upset or win a toss-up.
Please reply, this took a while 🙂
And a big thank you for my girlfriend for help with the names of colors (You can tell which parts she left for, lol)
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Even if your 50-55/6 seats could be won during a Presidential election, changes in turnout could easily cause us to lose half of them in a midterm. I think this is the kind of map that might be more effective in 15-20 years.
would be effective or not could depend on what type of democrat ends up being the nominee. Green is in one of those Houston seats now-hispanic majority-and he is very effective in winning anglo working class votes.
Apparently this last election the hispanic democratic candidates in South Texas had a hard time winning anglo votes-as far as I can tell. Doggett does well with white anglo Austin liberals but San Angelo voters are not quite as liberal as those in Austin.
But given the fact that redistricting will be fully controlled by Republicans – very unlikely to be used in practise..
It’s an aggravating error that I see constantly here. 54% Obama is not Likely D in a neutral year, because 2008 was not a neutral year.
For instance, Bush probably won almost all of these districts in 2004. 2004 wasn’t a neutral year either (although closer than 2008) and Bush wasn’t a neutral candidate (being the native son), but it does show how tentative these margins are. Texas may be trending Democratic, but not rapidly enough that Bush 04 districts are today likely Democratic.